Polymarket Whale Profits Top $48 Million From Trump Victory

The French trader, known as Théo, who wagered heavily on Trump winning the Electoral College (and the popular vote) made almost $50 million from his bets on Polymarket.

The company said that the anonymous election bettor – a French national with  “extensive trading experience and a financial services background” – was the whale behind four accounts – Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro, and Michie.

With the election over – and in his favor – the French bettor has catapulted to the top of Polymarket’s all-time profit leaderboard.

The biggest Trump-betting account on Polymarket, known as “Theo4,” earned more than $22.0 million in profit on his pro-Trump bets.

Combining that with his other accounts means ‘Theo’ made around $47.6 Million…

During October, 10 whale addresses spent a combined $70.6 million worth of USD Coin to place bets on Trump winning the 2024 US election.

As CoinTelegraph reports, considering Trump’s projected victory, the profitable payday may be close for the Polymarket whales, since the “market resolves when the Associated Press, Fox and NBC all call the election for the same candidate,” according to Polymarket’s disclaimer.

Over 50% of Trump “Yes” shares are controlled by five whales on Polymarket

As of Nov. 4, a day ahead of election day, over 50% of Donald Trump’s “Yes” votes on Polymarket were controlled by five mysterious whales.

Top Trump-betting accounts. Source: Polymarket

This could result in a payday exceeding $81 million for the whales, pseudonymous political bettorDomer wrote in an Oct. 31 X post:

“Trump Yes shares are very highly concentrated. 5 fat cat accounts own 50% of the 162 million shares — including the Le Giga Whale with nearly 1/3rd by himself. Those 5 will be paid out $81 million if Trump wins.”

Trump “Yes” shareholders on Polymarket. Source: Domer

In contrast, shares for Vice President Kamala Harris were more distributed, with the top five shareholders holding 18% of her “Yes” votes. Harris’ largest shareholder ha only 4.4% of her shares, while Trump’s top shareholder controlled 29.1%, Domer added.

At least four of the top six Trump bettors, including accounts “zxgngl” and “Fredi9999,” may be controlled by one entity with high confidence in a Trump victory, Domer told Cointelegraph:

“My guess is it is a true believer who is very rich and trying to make a big bet. He is getting more confident as the price goes higher and is in a confirmation bias loop where new information keeps increasing his confidence.”

Decentralized prediction markets may offer more accurate predictions than traditional polling systems, as investors are voting with their savings, according to billionaire Elon Musk.

What does Trump’s victory mean for crypto in the US?

For the latest analysis of Trump’s election victory and the crypto market reaction, tune in to today’s Rise’n’Crypto podcast from Cointelegraph.