For the 3rd straight month, Chicago Purchasing Managers are losing their religion as the business barometer is battered to 12-month lows (with the biggest drop in three years).
Chicago PMI printed a gravely disappointing 57.4 in March (against expectations of a rise to 62.0 from February’s 61.9 print)…
This is below the lowest analyst’s estimate… (Forecast range 59 – 66 from 30 economists surveyed)
Only 4 components rose versus last month
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Business barometer rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion
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Prices paid rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion
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New orders rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion
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Employment rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion
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Inventories rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion
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Supplier deliveries rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion
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Production rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion
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Order backlogs rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion
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Business activity has been positive for 12 months over the past year.
Thus, Chicago PMI confirms our earlier note that stagflationary indicators are flashing red (as production and new orders slow but prices paid surge)
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