With midterm election polls opening in less than 48 hours, candidates across the country are in their final push to convince Americans to vote for them – using sophisticated advertising schemes to appeal to their constituents which vary greatly depending on geographic location across the country.
To that end, Bloomberg‘s Demetrios Pogkas and David Ingold used data from the Nielsen Company to analyze over 3 million election ads for 2018 congressional and gubernatorial races across 210 local television markets in order to get a sense of what matters to whom, and where.
Just because a topic isn’t the top issue in a market doesn’t mean it’s not being discussed. Social issues for example, which include things such as civil rights and abortion, may be the most-mentioned topic in only six markets, but it’s mentioned at least once in 95 percent of all markets.
But not all topics are a staple of campaign pitches nationwide. An issue such as public safety—which includes ads about threats posed by migrants seeking asylum at the southern border, for instance—is a top topic in many of the markets in Texas, but mentioned far less elsewhere. –Bloomberg
Let’s drill down by issue:
Health Care and Prescription Drugs
Over 1.2 million ads have mentioned health care, while almost 75% of those ads are from Democrats. The message from the left is essentially “a vote for Democrats is a vote to save or expand protections under the Affordable Care Act.” Republican healthcare ads, meanwhile, revolve around promises to protect preexisting conditions.
Taxes
While Democrats are campaigning on health care, Republicans are focusing on taxes – with over 570,000 ads mentioning the GOP reforms – nearly double the number of tax-related ads run by Democrats.
Despite passing a major tax cut earlier this year, Republican ads in October that mentioned taxes were seven times more likely to be negative than positive. Republicans instead have used the topic to tell voters that Democrats will raise taxes next year if they gain control of the House and Senate. –Bloomberg
For or Against Trump
Pro-Trump advertising has been most prevalent in Tennessee – where the President has made several campaign stops to support Republican Senate candidate Marsha Blackburn. Pro-Trump ads rank fifth overall for Republicans, which have highlighted taxes, immigration, health care and the economy.
Anti-Trump messages have been strongest in California and Washington D.C.
Immigration
Around 20% of GOP ads have mentioned immigration this year, however it’s only a top issue in a few markets – particularly along the US-Mexico border.
Economy
Republicans have surprisingly shied away from mentioning the booming economy and lowest unemployment since 1961 – except for Louisiana, where one incumbent House Republican has made it a top issue.
Ads by party
The places with the most ads aren’t always the largest markets. Orlando, Las Vegas and Tampa have seen more campaign ads than anywhere else in the country due to a perfect storm of competitive House, Senate and governor’s races all occurring simultaneously.
And the party split has been nearly even too: About 54 percent of ads have been funded by Democrats. Areas where both parties have campaigned heavily are signs of competitive races, with the final decision ultimately coming down to whose message resonated most. –Bloomberg
Via Bloomberg:
Source: Kantar Media/CMAG data analysed by Bloomberg. Data as of Oct. 29, 2018.
Notes: Included are all U.S. political ads aired on local network affiliates from Jan. 1 through Oct. 29, 2018 sponsored by or targeted at House, Senate or gubernatorial candidates, according to Kantar Media/CMAG. Excluded are ads aired on national cable networks, and ads that were not coded for a specific campaign issue.
Market boundaries follow Nielsen’s Designated Market Areas. Manchester, N.H. is included in the Boston market. Some counties may contain two media markets. In these cases, market boundaries are mapped evenly within a county.
Each topic mentioned in an ad is counted as an instance of that issue. Similar topics are sometimes grouped into broader categories, like health care, and are coded as one mention, even if multiple sub-issues are discussed. To determine the percentage of ads on a given topic in each market, the total number of topics mentioned in ads in that market is used as a baseline.
via RSS https://ift.tt/2JFENrq Tyler Durden