The last 24 hours or so have been headline-heavy for traders as every “Trade”, “Trump”, “G20”, or “Fed” note sparks chaos across a now uncorrelated markets that are hypersensitive – but critical levels were obvious targets today:
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Dow/S&P at critical technical levels (key moving averages and YTD levels)
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10Y Treasury Yield below 3.00% intraday
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WTI Crude below $50 intraday
For now the moves are not life-threatening…
But the gap risk into this weekend’s tape-bomb turmoil has prompted short-term VIX to be bid despite surging stocks…
Overnight was ugly in China (despite US exuberance)…
European Stocks continued to go nowhere after their opening gap on Monday…
Overnight saw weakness in US futures too – and crappy data and a cash market open along with China trade hope headlines prompted a quick panic buy, a fade on Navarro news, a big pump after Fed Minutes, then a fade into the close…
Trannies underperformed on the cash side but all the major faded into the close after pumping green post-Fed Minutes…but they all ended red with a notably ugly close…
But, notably, in the US, Stocks were the only asset-class to move post-Fed Minutes as Gold, Stocks, and Bonds all went nowhere…
Before giving it all back into the close…
Dow broke above its 50/100/200 DMAs…then faded back below…
S&P stalled at its 50/200DMA…
Treasury yields tumbled overnight (after going nowhere amid yesterday’s surge in stocks), then v-shape-recovered higher (ending the day lower in yield though)…
10Y broke below 3.00% (for the first time since Sept 18th)…
Before Treasury selling surged…
Expectations for Fed actions next year have collapsed to less than one rate hike…
The Dollar Index went nowhere on the day, oscillating around yesterday’s Powell plunge lows…
As the dollar trod water, so did offshore yuan hovering around its PBOC fix…
Cryptos faded broadly but Bitcoin managed to get back into the green for the week briefly…
Vol remains insane in the crude complex…
WTI Crude tumbled back below $50 for the first time since October 2017… then was panic bid by the machines up to the $52 stops… then faded…
Finally, it looks like The Fed broke it…
And you know what they say – you break it, you buy it – so next comes QE?
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