Now that the government is finally reopened after a more than monthlong closure (even if it will most likely be closed again in 3 weeks), the most tangible effect for markets will be the delayed publication of dozens of economic reports that were not distributed by the government from late December until last Friday.
And while we will eventually receive the delayed data, Morgan Stanley notes that it will take some time after the government reopens because of information-gathering backlogs. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and Census Bureau should post updated release schedules once the government reopens, but the data calendar is likely to remain very clunky over the next couple of months as a result. For example, after the 2013 shutdown, there were many occasions where we were getting two months’ worth of data at the same time on the same day. The 2013 shutdown was resolved in October, but the data calendar was impacted all the way through December. This is likely to make the GDP tracking estimates look like a heart monitor for some time.
As MS adds, data points that had been scheduled to go out at the end of December will likely be released soon, as the data should have been mostly collected prior to the start of the shutdown. However, data points that were scheduled for release some time in January covering the month of December may be delayed for a longer period, as the government agencies were closed during the usual collection period.
Upcoming data releases will likely also be delayed because the agencies will need time to collect and process the data. That includes the BEA’s 4Q GDP and December personal income and spending report originally scheduled to go out next week.
So while timing remains uncertain with respect to the backlog, the table below from Deutsche Bank lists all of the economic indicators (and forecasts) that have been delayed in sequential order. The indicators in the bottom panel of the table were originally scheduled for this week.
via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2DEmaCQ Tyler Durden