Late last year, when President Trump first raised the possibility that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates, everybody dismissed this as more unhinged ramblings from a president who, they said, didn’t understand monetary policy or the business cycle, or the needs of savers.
But things have changed dramatically since then. And the same sell-side strategists who once dismissed the presidet have now reworked their forecasts in a way that makes it seem like they’re trying to one up each other for the most dovish forecasts. Barclays is currently in the lead, forecasting three rate cuts before the end of the year.
Now, strategists at the big banks are scrambling to adjust their forecasts fast enough: The team at the biggest American bank by assets in the US now sees two cuts – one in September and another in December. And while JPM’s archrivals over at Goldman Sachs have yet to throw in the towel on rates, they have released a more ominous view on the trade war.
On Friday, President Donald Trump repeated his criticism of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increases and said the stock market would be 10,000 points higher had the Fed kept rates lower during an interview with Fox News Laura Ingraham.
Without the rate increases, “the stock market would be up 10,000 points more, but now we have a very conservative approach,” Trump said in a taped interview with Fox News that was broadcast Thursday night
It’s just another example of how bankers who once dismissed Trump as ‘crazy’ have come around to his line of thinking.
Dec 2018:
Goldman – “4 more rate hikes”
Trump – “Fed should be cutting rates now”
Everyone – “Trump is insane”June 2019:
Everyone – “Fed should be cutting rates now”— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 6, 2019
via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2WlEHtZ Tyler Durden