One Reason the Ukrainian Revolution May Yet Succeed

Ukraine is in crisis. There are
reasons to question the staying power of its revolution: the lives
and infrastructure lost in the process, the legitimacy and savvy of
the interim leadership, the hobbling economy, Crimea’s separatist
movement, and most recently Russia’s invasion.

What could keep the nation on a path toward a stable, democratic
governance? “A revolution of the mind,” says Oksana Romaniuk, the
executive director of a free speech and media-focused NGO. She
departed from Ukraine earlier this week to attend a human rights
conference in California, and spoke with Reason about the
situation in her home country.

Romaniuk contrasts the current Euromaidan revolution with the
nation’s last “revolution” in 2004. “The Orange Revolution was
easy. People came out to the streets, stood out for a month, and
everything was solved in court. The problem was that people left
the streets and there was a big credit of trust to the Yushchenko
administration,” which promised to turn toward western, liberal
policies. But, the public and the press “didn’t check his
activities. The first criticisms of Yushchenko came maybe eight
months after his appointment. It was wrong,” she says, and real
change never materialized. 

The Orange Revolution failed to change what Romaniuk describes
as Ukraine’s “paternalistic society,” but “now we understand that
everything depends on us and we are ready to take responsibility.
The biggest difference is that we put demands to the new government
from the very beginning.” She suggests that the current leadership
is subject to much skepticism from constituents. Even as Russia
geared up for invasion, the Kyiv Post found time to

criticize Ukraine’s opposition installed-leadership.

Romaniuk highlighted the case of former Prime Minister Yulia
Tymoshenko. Although she aligns herself with the opposition and
receives sympathy for having been a political prisoner, Tymoshenko
“didn’t pass through that transformation with us. She doesn’t
understand that the situation has changed and we won’t fall for
emotions.” A recent polls
shows Tymoshenko would receive only 10 percent of the vote if
the presidential elections were held now.

As one protester
told Reason in January, “People support the opposition
leaders,” but “no one among the leaders can control Maidan,
because… the people control their leaders.”

Although seriously constrained leadership may be a handicap
while Russia flexes its military might, Ukraine’s revolutionary
mindset may be key to resisting foreign rule.

“It’s a mistake to say the Russian speaking community is happy
with Putin. They do not want him,” believes Romaniuk. “We just got
rid of our own corrupt government” and aren’t looking to submit to
another one.  

Indeed, a recent poll “found there is not a single region in
Ukraine where there is a majority in favour of unification with the
Russian Federation. In Crimea, where pro-Russian sentiments are the
strongest, 41 percent were in favour of unification with Russia,”

notes former Reason contributor Guy Bentley at
City A.M.

Read more Reason coverage of Ukraine here.