Did Libertarian Lucas Overby Throw Florida Special Election to Republican Jolly?

As noted, Republican David Jolly won a special
election for Congress in Florida’s 13th district. He beat
Democratic candidate Alex Sink by about 2 percentage points (48
percent to 46 percent) and the Libertarian Lucas Overby came in
with almost 5 percent.

Forget whether FL-13 is a bellwether for national midterms later
this year (the short answer is always maybe). Here’s a
more interesting question: Is this another instance where the
Libertarian candidate drained votes from the Democrat, not the
Republican? And if so, what does that mean in the bigger
picture?

Recall that in last year’s
Virginia governor’s race, arguably the most interesting
development was that high-performing Libertarian Robert Sarvis
actually drained votes away from eventual winner, Democrat Terry
McAuliffe. By a two-to-one margin, Sarvis voters told exit polls
that had Sarvis not been in the mix, they would have voted for the
Democrat, not the Republican.

I haven’t been able to locate any detailed exit polls from
FL-13, but there are indications the same dynamic was in play in
the Sunshine State.
According to local reports, the Libertarian Overby was
the only candidate in the race who broached the topic of medical
marijuana and larger drug legalization. He was in favor of both,
which would sit well with the 80-plus percent of Floridians who
support medical pot and the 48 percent who favor recreational
pot. 

Without exit polls, it’s not clear that the Libertarian
pulled votes from the Democrat rather than the Republican. Going
into the election, the Democrat Sink (who almost made it the
governor’s mansion in Florida, losing by a slim margin) was
favored. The final weeks of the campaign were buried in a blizzard
of attack ads made on behalf of the major-party candidates, often
with reference to President Obama and healthcare reform. There’s no
question that most of election was fought over those and related
issues.

But when you look at Lucas Overby’s positions, it’s easy to see
him pulling as many or more votes from a Democrat. He is fully
supportive of cutting spending and for gun rights, but he is
equally outspoken in terms of non-interventionist foreign policy,
in favor of gay marriage, and, as mentioned, drug legalization.
There’s every reason to believe that he may well have “taken” more
votes from Sink than from Jolly.

Assuming that’s true, Democrats should start recognizing
what Matt Welch and I laid out in
The Declaration of Independents. That is, liberals have
for far too long simply assumed that they own all votes related to
issues such as drug policy, free speech, tolerance, and restrained
foreign policy. Forget for a moment about the abysmal economy under
the Obama administration and a Democratic Senate. If the president
has underscored anything, it’s that liberal, progressive Democrats
are often as bad or worse than Republicans when it comes to drug
policy, civil liberties, and reckless overseas
intervention.

The FL-13 election may or may not be a premonition of what’s to
come in the midterms. But it should definitely be a wakeup call to
Democrats who are interested in capturing libertarian-leaning
voters that they, just as much as Republicans, cannot simply assume
that voters take them seriously on “liberal” issues.