Clinton Leads Potential GOP Contenders in Early 2016 Polling

We’re still six months away from this
year’s midterm election. But that doesn’t mean it’s too early to
start polling the public about potential presidential candidates
for the 2016 race.

A McClatchy-Marist poll released yesterday did just that, and
the findings are stark but not surprising: Hillary Clinton has

a significant lead over any potential Republican
challenger.

The former secretary of state rolled up support from majorities
of voters when pitted against eight different Republicans. Though
Clinton isn’t saying whether she’ll seek the White House, her
supporters have been raising money and promoting her candidacy.

The race for the Republican nomination is a free-for-all, with
five possible contenders in a virtual tie. Gov. Chris Christie of
New Jersey, who was virtually deadlocked with Clinton as recently
as December, has regained some political strength after stumbling
early this year but remains far behind the Democrat.

“Hillary Clinton is jogging around the track by herself as far
as the Democratic field is concerned. Republicans are all in the
starting blocks,” said Lee Miringoff, the director of the Marist
Institute for Public Opinion in New York, which conducted the poll
last week.

Like I said, it’s not too early to start polling the contenders.
But it is far too early to make much of the results. Presidential
polls as this very early stage
have essentially no predictive power regarding the final
outcome.

Mostly what this tells us, then, is that with more than two
years to go, Hillary Clinton, a former Secretary of State, U.S.
Senator, and First Lady who is widely expected to be the eventual
Democratic nominee and ran for the Democratic nomination once
before, has much better name recognition than any potential GOP
rival at this point. Notably, Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wisc.), who served
as the GOP’s VP nominee in 2012, fares the best against
Clinton. 

But it does suggest one looming challenge for Republicans.
Clinton may not go totally uncontested, but if she runs for the
nomination, she’ll likely win without a whole lot of effort. That
gives her a tremendous early advantage: She won’t have to go
through any rough primary battles, won’t have to spend much money
fighting party rivals, have to make a name for herself with the
public. Republicans, by contrast, will have to work to win over the
party’s base, establish themselves with the larger electorate, and
avoid the sort of intramural squabbling that could drag everyone
down.

The upside for Republicans is that Hillary Clinton’s reputation
is already pretty well established, and that she won’t be able to
deviate too much from the Obama administration’s policies or
priorities. So if it turns out that voters want something different
at that point, she’ll have a hard time changing how they view
her.