Job Openings Jump, But Delayed Print Set For Disappointment

One month after the November JOLTs report showed a modest improvement from the first drop in job openings since the March covid crash, moments ago the BLS reported that in October, job openings in the US surged, jumping by 158K to 6.652MM from an upward revised 6.494MM October print (originally 6.436MM), and well above the 6.3 MM consensus estimate. Of course, this is a rather stale number, and comes after last week’s payrolls report showed a sharp slowdown to the economy, and as such we can only imagine the November print when it is unveiled in January will be far uglier.

In any event, focusing on the data we do have, according to the BLS, job openings decreased in a number of industries with the largest decreases in retail trade, accommodation and food services, and finance and insurance. Only nondurable goods manufacturing and durable goods manufacturing had increases in job openings. The number of job openings decreased in the Midwest region.

Separately, while it has long been the case that the series of 24 consecutive months in which there were more job openings than unemployed workers ended with a thud in March, in April it was an absolute doozy with 18 million more unemployed workers than there are job openings, the biggest gap on record. Since then the the gap has closed somewhat, and in October there were 4.4 million more unemployed than available job openings (after 6.1 million in September).

As a result, there was continued improvement in the job availability series, and in October there were just under 1.7 unemployed workers for every job opening, down from 4.6 at the peak crisis moment in April.

Meanwhile, after a downbeat month for hiring in September, when 66K fewer people were hired, in October hiring once again slowed down, rising by 5.812M , a second consecutive decline of 74K from the 5.89MM in September, which is well below the record hiring pace set in May with 7.2MM.

Hires decreased in wholesale trade (-81,000), other services (-74,000), and federal government (-12,000). The number of hires was little changed in all four regions. The number of hires in October (not seasonally adjusted) was little changed over the year, according to the DOL. Hires increased in a number of industries over the year, with the largest increases in transportation, warehousing, and utilities and in durable goods manufacturing. Hires decreased in construction and state and local government education. The number of hires was little changed in all four regions.

While hires declined modestly, the number of total separations rose to 5.1 million, up +263,000. The total separations level increased in federal government (+109,000), largely the result of separations of temporary 2020 Census workers. Total separations increased in the Northeast region.

Finally, after the record surge in the number of American quitting their jobs reported back in June, the number of quits continued to increase modestly, and in October rose for the second consecutive month when an additional 18K people quit their job, bringing the total to 3.092MM. Quits increased in arts, entertainment, and recreation (+17,000) and federal government (+7,000). The number of quits was little changed in all four regions.