March Payrolls Miss: Fewest Jobs Added Since September, But Wages Come In Hot

In our NFP preview we said that only a catastrophic March jobs report coupled with even more negative data could shake the Fed’s determination to pursue a 50bps rate hike in May. Which is why despite a modest miss in the just reported March jobs data, we fail to see anything remotely ugly enough to change the big picture which sees the Fed continuing its liftoff as planned, with a 50bps hike next month.

Here’s what the BLS reported moments ago:

• 
  • The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for January was revised up by 23,000, from +481,000 to +504,000, and the change for February was revised up by 72,000, from +678,000 to +750,000. With these revisions, employment in January and February combined is 95,000 higher than previously reported.
• March Unemployment Rate Falls to 3.6% from 3.8%, below the exp. of 3.7%
  • Underemployment Rate 6.9%, down from 7.2%
  • Labor Participation Rate 62.4%, in line with exp. 62.4%, and above the 62.3% last
• March Average Hourly Earnings Rise 0.4% M/M; Est. 0.4%, and up from an upward revised 0.1% in Feb;
  • March Average Hourly Earnings rose 5.6% vs Year Ago, higher than the est 5.5%
• Average Weekly Hours All Employees 34.6, down from 34.7, and below the exp. 34.7

Developing.