US Home Price Growth Slowed In June – Weakest In 13 Months

US home price growth slowed in June (the latest data released from S&P Core Logic Case-Shiller). The headline national average saw home prices rise 17.96% YoY (well below the +19.90% YoY seen in May) and the 20-City Composite home price index rose 18.65% YoY, well below the 19.20% YoY expected and May’s +20.51% surge…

Source: Bloomberg

This is the weakest annual price growth since May 2021.

“It’s important to bear in mind that deceleration and decline are two entirely different things, and that prices are still rising at a robust clip,” Craig J. Lazzara, managing director at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in statement.

“June’s growth rates for all three composites are at or above the 95th percentile of historical experience.”

Tampa, Miami, Dallas reported highest year-over-year gains among 20 cities surveyed but all major cities have seen price growth peak (with West Coast prices fading fastest)…

Notably US home affordability just reached new record lows (below the trough in July 2006) but as the chart below shows, the average home price in the US is now 65% higher than at that previous trough of affordability…

Source: Bloomberg

And with rates higher and sentiment lower since this ancient June data, this could well be the epicenter of Powell’s “pain”…