Big-Tech & Beijing’s Bazooka Spark Surge In Stocks, Gold, & Crypto Ahead Of PCE

The risk-on sentiment prevailing today can likely be chalked up to three developments: guidance raise by MU, deepening of the monetary easing cycle round the globe, and supportive data on the domestic front.

MU. In a surprise move, MU raised top and bottom line guidance (reported after market yesterday), highlighting a robust AI environment and recovery in traditional servers. The stock is up over 15% on the back of these results, with other semis stocks also gaining, as investors continue to buy into the AI secular growth theme.

Source: Bloomberg

Policy support. Central banks and governments appear to be following in the footsteps of the Fed, as they take steps to stimulate their economies with rate cuts. Overnight, China announced significant fiscal support on top of the monetary support announced earlier in the week.

In Europe, the Swiss National Bank cut policy rate by 25bp, and Goldman now expects another cut at the December meeting.

Goldman also expects the ECB to speed up the pace of rate cuts to consecutive steps.

Interestingly, as the rest of the world enters ‘easing’ mode, the US markets priced in a less dovish easing cycle today (with 2024 now back below 3 more rate cuts priced in)…

Source: Bloomberg

Strong data at home. Finally, we also received a flurry of data today that allay concerns about the US economy: Real GDP growth was unrevised at 3.0% annualized in the second quarter consumers are saving more than expected, and initial jobless claims also declined.

Source: Bloomberg

The sum of all that was decent gains for the US majors with Nasdaq leading overnight but fading back to join the rest by the US open…

AI-related stocks soared (thanks to MU)…

Source: Bloomberg

Despite the AI gains, Mag7 stocks overall were practically unchanged – after testing new highs intraday…

Source: Bloomberg

Most Shorted stocks were squeeze hard at the cash open but selling pressure hit shortly after….

Source: Bloomberg

But, without a doubt, China was the focus today with the HXC Index +10% post the fiscal stimulus announcement with Goldman’s trading desk noting that it was 3x better to buy in ADRs with a flurry of activity from both LOs and HFs.

Source: Bloomberg

Of course, with China stimulating, US data improving, The Fed cutting, and physical inventories plunging, it makes perfect sense that crude oil prices would plunge today (on some anonymously sourced malarkey around OPEC+ production increases)…