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Saker: To The Idiots That Think This Is Over, It Ain’t!

Saker: To The Idiots That Think This Is Over, It Ain’t!

Via The Saker,

Looks like Round 1 is over. 

Let’s begin with a small recap of events:

  • Iran fired a relatively small number of short range missiles at one, possibly two, US bases

  • The IRGC indicated that if Iran is attacked, then so will Israel

  • Trump tweeted “so far, so good”

  • The US reported no casualties

In plain English this means that the strike was intended to be both highly visible AND symbolic (Iran has MANY more missiles, including longer ranged ones, which, if Iran wanted to, could strike every single US base in the Middle-East simultaneously.

So what happened?

I think that Iran wanted to humiliate the US but in a manner which would be under the threshold which would guarantee a US/Israeli counter-strike.

Next, I forced myself to listen to Esper and the Idiot-in-Chief.  Here are the salient points:

  • Esper reiterated that the US does not want war with Iran

  • The US does not want to leave Iraq because, unlike the Iraq MPs, many/most Iraqis want the US to stay

  • The US armed forces are THE BEST in the history of the galaxy

  • Trump will never allow Iran to have nukes

  • Iran appears to be “standing down”

  • Europe needs to ditch the JPCOA

  • NATO needs to get further involved in the Middle-East

  • Iran bad bad bad, USA good good good

  • The US armed forces are THE BEST in this history of the galaxy

  • USA! USA! USA! (etc.)

Okay, to those idiots who apparently think that it is over (or hope it is?)

I can tell you for sure that it ain’t. 

The goal of Iran and its allies is to get the USA out of the Middle-East.

Thus these symbolic strikes appear to have given the US/Israeli a sense of relief which might bring them to let their guard down, making it much easier for Iran and its allies to strike again.

It is rather funny to see how the Iranian PR machine “packaged” this one:

if you dare hit us, we will hit you in your most holy and sacred, i.e. Israel. 

So far this “we get to shoot at you but you don’t get to shoot back” has worked, but only because the Iranian strike was so symbolic.

Conclusion:

this is far, FAR veeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeerrrrrrrry far from over.

Still, I have to downgrade the likelihood of a massive and imminent war back from 90% to 80%.

*  *  *

ZH: And given tonight’s Iran-backed militia rockets being fired into the Green Zone, it appears The Saker was right. As we noted earlier, contrary to the carefully built narrative that the US and Iran have become nothing short of BBFs, the risk for re-escalation remains huge. As Stratfor noted this morning, Iraq, in particular, could present a theater for action, as Iranian-allied Iraqi militias have also been galvanized by the recent U.S. strikes and likely will be keen to seek retribution.

If an attack by those militias kills a U.S. soldier or contractor in Iraq or Syria, the risks of escalation to a direct military exchange between the United States and Iran would again climb. After all, the United States will hold Iran responsible for the actions of some of its allied militias, especially the mostly Shiite Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq.

As such, contrary to the desires of bullish daytraders, the existence of these triggers for potential escalation and the atmosphere of tension that will linger between the two adversaries keeps the long-term risk of a military confrontation alive, even if their current face-off goes no further.


Tyler Durden

Wed, 01/08/2020 – 16:45

Tags
Politics
War Conflict

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How San Antonio’s Worst Cops Get Their Jobs Back

Matthew Luckhurst of the San Antonio Police Department (SAPD) tried to feed a homeless man a sandwich made of dog feces. While Luckhurst was initially fired for such crappy behavior, Reason reported in March 2019 that his employment was fully restored.

Luckhurst was able to rejoin the force following an arbitration hearing required by the collective bargaining agreement the San Antonio Police Officers Association has with the city. Since the department could not prove the exact date of the crap sandwich incident, the department had no choice but to accept that it missed the 180-day window in which it could discipline Luckhurst, and the arbitration panel ruled in Luckhurst’s favor.

The San Antonio Current reported this week that Luckhurst’s story is not an exception to the rule. Twenty-seven of the 40 SAPD police officers fired between 2010 and 2019 have managed to get their jobs back through arbitration. Only 13 firings were upheld in that entire time.

Other officers who have benefitted from arbitration include an officer fired for using the N-word while arresting a black suspect and an officer who challenged a prisoner to a fistfight in exchange for his freedom.

The union has long erected barriers that make it difficult to keep bad officers off the force. The union once thwarted suggested reforms and then used them to negotiate a substantial pay increase. One of the suggested reforms at the time would have allowed supervisors to consider suspensions older than two years to factor into discipline for new offenses. The union has also called for the resignation of a chief who angered the group by attempting to reform use-of-force policies.

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Is the FBI Snooping on Political Groups and Ideological Publications?

The Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank, is calling on Congress to investigate whether the FBI is spying on it and other domestic political groups after public records requests raised the possibility that the Bureau has files on Cato and others. 

Patrick Eddington, a research fellow at Cato, has submitted more than 200 Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests for FBI files on political advocacy groups, civil liberties organizations, think tanks, and publications across the political spectrum.

For about two dozen of those requests so far, the FBI said it could neither confirm or deny whether it had collected national security or foreign intelligence records on the groups. Those organizations include the immigrant rights group Kids in Need of Defense; the Transgender Law Center; former Rep. Ron Paul’s (R–Texas) Campaign for Liberty; the grassroots Fourth Amendment advocacy group Restore the Fourth; the Cato Institute; and the Reason Foundation, which publishes Reason. 

(You can see the Justice Department response upholding the FBI’s refusal to confirm or deny the existence of national security or foreign intelligence records on Reason here.)

In a press release issued Tuesday, the Cato Institute said the responses “reveal the need for Congress to launch an aggressive investigation into FBI domestic surveillance practices.”

The well-worn “can neither confirm nor deny” phrase is known as a “Glomar response.” The term originated from a 1975 FOIA lawsuit by a Rolling Stone journalist against the CIA seeking records on the Glomar Explorer, a salvage ship the spy agency used in an audacious attempt to recover a sunken Soviet nuclear submarine.

A federal judge ruled that the CIA could refuse to acknowledge the existence of such records if doing so would in and of itself compromise national security. The Glomar doctrine has since spread to other federal agencies, and even trickled down to state and local government agencies, such as the NYPD.

A Glomar response, by design, obscures any attempt to discern the government’s activities, or lack thereof. The responses Eddington received could mean absolutely nothing.

However, Eddington says that, while the Glomar responses don’t prove that the FBI has collected intelligence on these groups, their selective use at least raises the troubling possibility that the groups mentioned above were targeted for unconstitutional surveillance or information gathering.

“We know for a fact that Glomar invocations have been used to conceal actual, ongoing activities, and we also know that they’re not passing out Glomars like candy,” Eddington, a former CIA analyst, says in an interview with Reason.

The FBI declined to comment on this story.

The FBI has a long and sordid history of spying on dissident political groups, from early 20th century socialists and labor organizers, to civil rights leaders and post-9/11 environmentalists and peace activists, to Black Lives Matter protesters. 

In 2013, The Guardian reported that the FBI kept files and created “threat assessments” on the co-founders of Antiwar.com for six years because of a mix-up. Last September, the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that the FBI had to expunge its surveillance records on the site.

“We are a post-Edward Snowden organization, and so it is a matter of particular concern to us that we may be under surveillance in some sense by the FBI,” says Alex Marthews, national chair of Restore the Fourth. “We would consider it highly inappropriate if we were, because we know our activities to be entirely peaceful and constitutional.”

Eddington says that any such surveillance is inimical to freedom of speech.

“Anytime [the FBI] is engaged in gathering that kind of data on news organizations or on domestic groups that are exercising their First Amendment rights, that activity should be expressly prohibited in the absence of a genuine criminal predicate,” Eddington says. “It should absolutely be prohibited.”

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Is the FBI Snooping on Political Groups and Ideological Publications?

The Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank, is calling on Congress to investigate whether the FBI is spying on it and other domestic political groups after public records requests raised the possibility that the Bureau has files on Cato and others. 

Patrick Eddington, a research fellow at Cato, has submitted more than 200 Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests for FBI files on political advocacy groups, civil liberties organizations, think tanks, and publications across the political spectrum.

For about two dozen of those requests so far, the FBI said it could neither confirm or deny whether it had collected national security or foreign intelligence records on the groups. Those organizations include the immigrant rights group Kids in Need of Defense; the Transgender Law Center; former Rep. Ron Paul’s (R–Texas) Campaign for Liberty; the grassroots Fourth Amendment advocacy group Restore the Fourth; the Cato Institute; and the Reason Foundation, which publishes Reason. 

(You can see the Justice Department response upholding the FBI’s refusal to confirm or deny the existence of national security or foreign intelligence records on Reason here.)

In a press release issued Tuesday, the Cato Institute said the responses “reveal the need for Congress to launch an aggressive investigation into FBI domestic surveillance practices.”

The well-worn “can neither confirm nor deny” phrase is known as a “Glomar response.” The term originated from a 1975 FOIA lawsuit by a Rolling Stone journalist against the CIA seeking records on the Glomar Explorer, a salvage ship the spy agency used in an audacious attempt to recover a sunken Soviet nuclear submarine.

A federal judge ruled that the CIA could refuse to acknowledge the existence of such records if doing so would in and of itself compromise national security. The Glomar doctrine has since spread to other federal agencies, and even trickled down to state and local government agencies, such as the NYPD.

A Glomar response, by design, obscures any attempt to discern the government’s activities, or lack thereof. The responses Eddington received could mean absolutely nothing.

However, Eddington says that, while the Glomar responses don’t prove that the FBI has collected intelligence on these groups, their selective use at least raises the troubling possibility that the groups mentioned above were targeted for unconstitutional surveillance or information gathering.

“We know for a fact that Glomar invocations have been used to conceal actual, ongoing activities, and we also know that they’re not passing out Glomars like candy,” Eddington, a former CIA analyst, says in an interview with Reason.

The FBI declined to comment on this story.

The FBI has a long and sordid history of spying on dissident political groups, from early 20th century socialists and labor organizers, to civil rights leaders and post-9/11 environmentalists and peace activists, to Black Lives Matter protesters. 

In 2013, The Guardian reported that the FBI kept files and created “threat assessments” on the co-founders of Antiwar.com for six years because of a mix-up. Last September, the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that the FBI had to expunge its surveillance records on the site.

“We are a post-Edward Snowden organization, and so it is a matter of particular concern to us that we may be under surveillance in some sense by the FBI,” says Alex Marthews, national chair of Restore the Fourth. “We would consider it highly inappropriate if we were, because we know our activities to be entirely peaceful and constitutional.”

Eddington says that any such surveillance is inimical to freedom of speech.

“Anytime [the FBI] is engaged in gathering that kind of data on news organizations or on domestic groups that are exercising their First Amendment rights, that activity should be expressly prohibited in the absence of a genuine criminal predicate,” Eddington says. “It should absolutely be prohibited.”

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Frustrated Democrats Push Pelosi To Break Impeachment Impasse

Frustrated Democrats Push Pelosi To Break Impeachment Impasse

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) is facing pressure from frustrated Senate Democrats to end the ongoing impeachment standoff with Senate Republicans, as it’s clear Majority Leader Mitch McConnell isn’t going to acquiesce to her demands to hash out terms for the upcoming impeachment trial, according to Bloomberg.

“If we’re going to do it, she should send them over. I don’t see what good delay does,” said California Democratic Senator Dianne Feinstein – who also told Politico “The longer it goes on the less urgent it becomes.”

“So if it’s serious and urgent, send them over. If it isn’t, don’t send it over.“

Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT) wants to start the trial immediately.

“My expectation is that we’ll be able to start this trial next week,” he said, adding “The leverage over Republicans exists in the votes we take inside the trial.”

Several other Senate Democrats also showed their impatience with the Democratic leaders’ current strategy. Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) said Wednesday morning that Democrats “should move on” and turn the articles to the Senate and Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) said he’s “ready” for the trial to start.

“We need to get folks to testify and we need more information … but nonetheless I’m ready,” Tester said. “I don’t know what leverage we have. It looks like the cake is already baked.”

“I respect the fact that she is concerned about the fact about whether or not there will be a fair trial. But I do think it is time to get on with it,” said Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.). –Politico

And according to Rep. Peter Welch (D-VT), the Senate will get the impeachment articles from Pelosi “sooner rather than later.”

That said, Pelosi continues to dig in.

In a closed-door meeting with fellow House Democrats Wednesday, Pelosi gave no hint that she was ready to set a timeline for sending the articles of impeachment to the Senate, according to lawmakers.

“We are waiting to see what the terms are,” Pelosi said afterward. She said she wants McConnell to release a resolution setting out the Senate rules for the trial before she takes the next step. “Then we’ll be able to name our managers. But we can’t do it until we see the arena they’re going into.” –Bloomberg

McConnell – who has promised a speedy acquittal of Trump – has all but told Pelosi to pound sand, saying in a Wednesday speech on the Senate floor: “There will no haggling with the House over Senate procedure,” adding “We will not cede our authority to try this impeachment.”

McConnell, who wants to engineer a quick acquittal of the president, in effect declared victory Tuesday when he announced after meeting with GOP senators that there are enough votes among Republicans to set the terms for the impeachment trial without Democratic support.

The rules, he said, would be similar to those used for then-President Bill Clinton’s impeachment trial 21 years ago. That would set up about two weeks for arguments by House managers and Trump’s defense, as well as senators’ questions, before addressing the thorny issue of whether to end the trial without any fresh documents or witnesses. Both sides could then call for more testimony but would need 51 senators to agree.

McConnell said the Clinton precedent doesn’t guarantee witnesses will testify, but it also doesn’t preclude it. Still, the majority leader would be able to pressure GOP senators to stand firm against calling witnesses. –Bloomberg

Pelosi, meanwhile, is arguing that Trump’s impeachment is fundamentally different than Clinton’s because the latter was based on the findings of an independent counsel and a grand jury which had testimony from the former president.

“All of the work that was done leading up to impeachment of Clinton was so dramatically different that there is not really an apples to apples comparison,” said Rep. Dan Kildee (D-MI).

Whether that’s true or not, Mitch ain’t budging.


Tyler Durden

Wed, 01/08/2020 – 16:25

Tags
Politics

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Stocks Soar After MidEast De-Escalation Sparks Crude Carnage, Bond Bloodbath

Stocks Soar After MidEast De-Escalation Sparks Crude Carnage, Bond Bloodbath

Update: We note in the last few minutes of the day there were reports of rocket strikes in the Green Zone in Baghdad and that sparked some notable derisking into the close.

As Sven Henrich tweeted: “Do the guys that launch rockets consult technical charts?”

Does make you wonder?

*  *  *

From WW3 to Record Highs in 12 hours… missiles flew and so did tweets and now “all is well” again… Dow futures are up 700 points from overnight lows…

Nasdaq futures exploded a stunning 300 points off the lows…

For context, that’s a 3.3% rally from overnight lows for Nasdaq futures…

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq surged to a new record high.

Quite a ride – makes you think…

Chinese stocks were down overnight, but closed before the tensions de-escalated…

Source: Bloomberg

European markets opened ugly amid the escalations but ramped all the way back and then some during the day (except UK)…

Source: Bloomberg

In the US, stocks soared – almost back top unch by the open and then as Trump spoke everything exploded…Trannies and Nasdaq outperformed…

 

A squeeze at the open and into the European close was enough to ignite the momo…

Source: Bloomberg

Notably, Defensives dominated Cyclicals intraday…

Source: Bloomberg

AAPL soared intraday (again) to a new record high as it seems the buyback machine is bidding for any dip…

But AAPL’s vol remains notably decoupled from the price…

Source: Bloomberg

Meanwhile, Tesla continues to soar illogically becoming the most valuable US carmaker EVER (surpassing GM’s 1999 record high)…

Source: Bloomberg

VIX was monkeyhammered back to a 12 handle and VIX futures crashed from over 17 overnight to a 13 handle…

But while VIX tumbled it remains notably decoupled from credit protection costs which have collapsed…

Source: Bloomberg

Total chaos reined in bond land overnight with yields crashing on the missile strike and exploding higher as tension apparently eased (yields ended the day around 4-5bps higher but that hid the dramatic moves)…

Source: Bloomberg

The 10Y Yield rose a stunning 17bps off overnight lows (one-month lows)…

Source: Bloomberg

 

 

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar pushed higher to 2-week highs…

Source: Bloomberg

While most markets are pricing out geopolitical risk or any safe-haven premia, we note that the Swiss Franc is in great demand, soaring to its strongest against the euro since April 2017…

Source: Bloomberg

Offshore Yuan plunged overnight as the missiles struck only to rebound back to the highs..

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos remain notably higher since Soleimani’s death but gave back overnight gains today…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin spiked up to $8500 overnight, but faded back as tensions de-escalated…

Source: Bloomberg

Copper was flat but overall commodities were lower on the day…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold (in USD) spiked above $1610 overnight before falling back..

Gold in JPY reached its highest since January 1980…

Source: Bloomberg

And Gold in Euros reached a new all-time record high…

Source: Bloomberg

Not to be outdone, Palladium spiked above $2100 overnight, a new record high…

Source: Bloomberg

And finally, oil… which exploded higher overnight, has collapsed as tensions de-escalated…

WTI topped $65.50 overnight only to crash to $59.15…

Brent spiked near $72 overnight, only to crash back below $65…

Source: Bloomberg

Brent is mirroring – almost perfectly – the move after the Saudi refinery attack… (today’s drop is the biggest since the day after the Abqaiq attack)

Source: Bloomberg

And as the melt-up continues, we wonder if we see Nasdaq 10,000 before this all comes crashing down to reality…?

Source: Bloomberg


Tyler Durden

Wed, 01/08/2020 – 16:01

Tags
Business Finance

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Markets Suddenly Spooked After “Several Rockets” Hit Green Zone In Baghdad

Markets Suddenly Spooked After “Several Rockets” Hit Green Zone In Baghdad

It was supposed to be a day of de-escalation, so when Bloomberg, Sky News Arabia, Fox News and other sources reported that “several rockets” have hit the Green Zone in Baghdad and explosions have been heard…

… the headline-scanning algo reaction was swift.

A clip posted by Fox News reporter Trey Yingst, presumably located near the embassy, confirms that sirens are blaring in Baghdad with the warning “incoming” heard in the background:

Why are markets sliding on the news? Because contrary to the carefully built narrative that the US and Iran have become nothing short of BBF, the risk for re-escalation remains huge. As Stratfor notes, Iraq, in particular, could present a theater for action, as Iranian-allied Iraqi militias have also been galvanized by the recent U.S. strikes and likely will be keen to seek retribution.

If an attack by those militias kills a U.S. soldier or contractor in Iraq or Syria, the risks of escalation to a direct military exchange between the United States and Iran would again climb. After all, the United States will hold Iran responsible for the actions of some of its allied militias, especially the mostly Shiite Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq.

Then there are the old standby reasons: beyond strictly escalatory military exchanges, Iran’s continued development of its nuclear program and its  removal of limitations on enrichment and stockpiling significantly elevates the potential for longer-term military confrontation. And although Iran insists that the periodic acceleration it has undertaken with its nuclear program is reversible, the United States and Israel will be more likely to seriously consider military strikes against Iran’s nuclear program to ensure Iran does not approach a nuclear weapons breakout stage too closely.

As such, contrary to the desires of bullish daytraders, the existence of these triggers for potential escalation and the atmosphere of tension that will linger between the two adversaries keeps the long-term risk of a military confrontation alive, even if their current face-off goes no further. It also explains why the market’s selloff was so swift in the last minutes of trading.


Tyler Durden

Wed, 01/08/2020 – 15:51

Tags
Politics
War Conflict

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Erdogan & Putin Launch TurkStream Gas Pipeline To Europe, Defying US

Erdogan & Putin Launch TurkStream Gas Pipeline To Europe, Defying US

While the media and the world’s attention has been on the rapidly advancing Nord Stream 2 Russia-Germany natural gas pipeline and Washington’s attempts to stop it, another controversial pipeline to the south — also under US sanctions — has gone online Wednesday. 

Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan attended the ceremonial launching of the much-anticipated offshore pipeline TurkStream, which will supply Russian gas to Turkey and southern Europe.

A prior TurkStream gas pipeline ceremony in Istanbul, Turkey. Image source: the Kremlin via Reuters.

Also in attendance were Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vucic and Bulgarian Prime Minister Boyko Borissovalso, given the 930km pipeline with a total capacity of 31.5 billion cubic meters cuts from Russia straight across the width of the Black Sea into northern Turkey, and northwest across neighboring Bulgaria and into Serbia. 

Southeast Europe has lately struggled with severe gas shortages during crucial winter periods, also amid struggling to put vital energy infrastructure in place.

Addressing this energy opening to southern Europe, which Turkey has hailed as the “Silk road of the energy world,” Russia’s Putin said the following during formal remarks:

“The supply of Russian gas through TurkStream will undoubtedly be of great importance not only for the economy of Turkey and the Black Sea region, but will also have a positive impact on the development of many South European countries, and will contribute to improving the energy security of Europe in general.” 

Putin’s remarks were a further nod to Europe’s attempts at creating “energy diversity” and independence at a moment EU leaders such as Germany’s Merkel have simultaneously slammed the Trump administration for “interference” in European energy affairs. 

Bulgarian Prime Minister Boyko Borisov (left to right), Russian President Vladimir Putin, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic at Wednesday’s inaugural Turkstream ceremony, via EFE-EPA.

When President Trump signed the 2020 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) into law late last month, it wasn’t just European and Russian companies targeted by sanctions over their work on the Nord Stream 2 project (which resulted in the major pipeline laying company Allseas halting its participation), but the sanctions took aim at TurkStream as well, also amid deteriorating US-Turkey relations. 

Turkstream actually involves construction of two pipeline routes, described by The Moscow Times as follows: 

Russian gas producer Gazprom will ship about 3 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas per year to Bulgaria via TurkStream, replacing a route that formerly passed through Ukraine and Romania.

Gazprom shipped about 3 bcm to Greece and about 500,000 mcm to North Macedonia via that route last year.

Russia is building TurkStream in two pipelines, each with an annual capacity of 15.75 bcm. The first pipeline will supply Turkey and the second will extend from Bulgaria to Serbia and Hungary. Bulgaria hopes to be able to make shipments to Serbia by May and build the whole section by year-end.

Map via RT

Washington has accused Moscow of doing everything it can to punish Ukraine after years of conflict in Donbass by ensuring it gets bypassed on natural gas piped to Europe (and thus loses vast valuable transport fees).

However, days before an end of year deadline was set to expire, Russia’s Gazprom and Ukraine signed a landmark deal to keep natural gas flowing to Western Europe via Ukraine for the next five years, which is expected to net Ukraine an estimated $7 billion (€6.25 billion) in gas transit fees by 2024, also amid a broader thawing in tensions and dramatic deescalation between Moscow and Kiev.


Tyler Durden

Wed, 01/08/2020 – 15:45

Tags
Environment
Business Finance

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Paul Krugman Says Someone Using His IP Address To Download Child Porn

Paul Krugman Says Someone Using His IP Address To Download Child Porn

New York Times columnist Paul Krugman tweeted on Wednesday that someone is using his IP address – a numerical label assigned to each device on the internet – to download child pornography. He suggested that while he may be a random target, it “could be an attempt to Qanon me.”

Needless to say, the internet (which Paul predicted would be obsolete by now) is having fun with this:


Tyler Durden

Wed, 01/08/2020 – 15:25

Tags
Social Issues
Technology Internet

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US Consumers Unexpectedly Paid Down Credit Card Debt In November Even As Student, Auto Loans Soared

US Consumers Unexpectedly Paid Down Credit Card Debt In November Even As Student, Auto Loans Soared

One month after the burst in credit card usage, when in October revolving, i.e., credit card debt soared by $7.9BN or the most since July, in November US consumers hunkered down and just as the holiday spending was in full force, and unexpectedly repaid $2.4BN in credit card debt, the most since March, bringing the total credit card debt outstanding to $1.086 trillion, just shy of the record hit in October.

Offsetting this drop, was another surge in non-revolving debt, i.e., student and auto loans, which rose by $14.9BN, the biggest monthly increase in four months, and the second highest monthly increase since August 2018.

Combined, November’s total increase in consumer credit was $12.5BN, which was below October’s massive $19BN, and below the consensus estimate $16BN, entirely on the back of the unexpectedly drop in credit card debt.

Considering the strong end to the year for retail sales, especially online, we assume this was a one-off event, and in December any credit card “shrinkage” was more than offset with aggressive year-end “charging.” If not, then the US consumer may indeed be reaching the limits of their debt-funded spending euphoria.


Tyler Durden

Wed, 01/08/2020 – 15:17

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Business Finance

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