Bank Of Canada To Start Buying Mortgage Bonds As Canadian Housing Market Cools

Ten years ago this week, the Federal Reserve announced it would start buying agency MBS. Asset purchases are now arguably a  standard non-standard monetary policy tool, as all three major central banks have since embarked in some form of asset purchases, and are currently in different stages of implementation.

And on Friday, the Bank of Canada became the latest to join the parade, when it announced for the first time plans to buy government-backed mortgage bonds in an attempt to boost its balance sheet and arguably, to stabilize Canada’s flagging housing market.

The move, part of a decision to include government-guaranteed debt issued by federal Crown corporations, will allow Canada’s central bank to offset continued growth in bank notes, the central bank said in an statement Friday. It will also give it flexibility to further reduce its participation at primary auctions of Canadian government bond “to help increase the tradeable float of those benchmark securities and hence support their secondary market liquidity.”

As part of this expansion, a “small portion” of its purchases will be Canada Mortgage Bonds, which are guaranteed by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.  Purchases of mortgage bonds will be conducted in the primary market starting later this year or early 2019, the central bank said. The key excerpt from Friday’s statement is blow:

As part of these changes the Bank plans to allocate a small portion of its balance sheet for acquiring federal government guaranteed securities by purchasing Canada Mortgage Bonds. These purchases will be conducted in the primary market, on a non-competitive basis, and are expected to commence in the latter part of 2018 or in the first half of 2019. The Bank will continue to adhere to its principles of neutrality, prudence and transparency and conduct its transactions in a manner that limits market distortions and minimizes impact on market prices.

According to Bloomberg, the federal Crown corporation has an issuance limit of C$40 billion ($30 billion) for 2018.

“In terms of CMBs, we need a little more detail on how the BoC will be participating, but it does look to be supportive of spreads,” said Mark Chandler, head of fixed-income research at RBC Capital Markets. “I would suggest only a modest impact until we learn more.”

The Bank of Canada held C$78.2 billion of Canadian government bonds and C$22.2 billion of treasury bills for balance sheet management purposes as of Nov. 21, according to its website.

While the central bank said that expanding the list of eligible assets “is for balance-sheet management purposes only and has no implications for monetary policy and financial stability objectives of the Bank”, some couldn’t help but wonder if – like 10 years ago in the US – this is just another implicit backstop of Canada’s housing market.

While that is debatable, there is no doubt that 2018 has marked a turning point in Canada’s closely-watched housing market, which can no longer count itself among the countries with the world’s hottest residential real estate. While that is good news for the housing bubbles in Toronto and Vancouver which has priced out most local residents out of the market for a new house, it’s bad news for everyone else who has come to count on steady house price growth to boost their wealth (or their ability to borrow more money).

As Daniel Tencer noted recently, Canada tumbled to 37th place in the latest global ranking of housing markets from commercial real estate firm Knight Frank, from fourth place in the same survey a year earlier. That places us firmly in the bottom half of 57 countries surveyed.

With average price growth falling to 2.9 per cent in the latest survey, from 14.2 per cent a year ago, Canada actually fell behind the U.S. on price growth — a rare occurrence since the U.S.’s housing bubble burst a decade ago.

“The rising cost of finance, an uncertain political and economic climate and currency instability in some markets is likely to be tempering demand,” the Knight Frank report noted, and that certainly seems to be the case in Canada, where rising mortgage rates and tougher new mortgage rules have reduced the maximum buying price that homebuyers can afford.

Furthermore, recent data from the Teranet/National Bank house price index, showed prices in Canada rising at their slowest pace since the financial crisis in August, up just 1.4%, with prices posting a modest improvement in the past two months.

“This is mostly a reflection of Toronto and Vancouver, the two most important real estate markets in Canada,” National Bank economist Marc Pinsonneault wrote in a client note. Indeed, Toronto house prices grew 0.3% in August, but Pinsonneault says this reflects the usual rise in prices seen in spring and summer months. Strip out the seasonality, and Toronto house prices have been falling for five months.  Meanwhile, Vancouver’s house price index fell 0.4% in the month, though the index is still up 7.6 per cent from a year ago. But the momentum is gone: Adjusted for seasonality, Vancouver prices have fallen for the past three months, Pinsonneault said.

And now, the Bank of Canada seems to be taking preemptive steps, just in case this localized slowdown spreads to all other markets.

 

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Has California’s Green Ideology Left It Burning?

Authored by James Pinkerton via The American Conservative,

The state didn’t invest in infrastructure and so the fires rage…

Once upon a time, the U.S. government looked ahead to a growing population – and looked to make sure that people would be safe and productive where they lived.

It was understood that while the familiar elements of nature—earth, wind, water, and fire—could be life-giving, they could also be death-bringing. And so, as part of the modern social contract, the state stepped in to aid growth and curb destruction.

Yet today, as wildfires engulf much of California, that social contract has been incinerated. That is, at least 79 are dead, and perhaps 1,000 are missing, yet officials seem mostly helpless to stop the damage. Indeed, the entire state seems to be de-modernizing, as air quality plummets, refugee camps are built, and fears of epidemics re-emerge.

But here’s a bet: that can-do spirit that once aided human flourishing will make a comeback. That is, it’s only a matter of time before Californians—and all Americans—demand that the government once again start putting people first.

Why this confidence? Because it happened before.

Back in 1900, Uncle Sam, having just enumerated the 76.2 million people living in the 45 states plus various territories, could see that more land would have to be opened up for settlement. There were two reasons for this realization, both of which can be found in the life of one man, Theodore Roosevelt.

As a young New York politician, TR could see that urban proletariats, huddled in their misery, might cause societal trouble. As he wrote in 1883, “An uprising might come that will overwhelm innocent and guilty alike.” So something had to be done to stave off radicalism. One obvious solution was social reform. TR was in favor of that, yet he also saw value in spreading out the population.

Indeed, he took his own advice a few years later, when he set out for the badlands of North Dakota. There he noticed a permanent natural phenomenon: it rained a lot less than in the East. He could see that if the population was going to thrive in the West, it would need additional sources of water.

We might note that in those days, providing water was a bipartisan goal. For instance, the Democratic Party platform of 1900 declared, “We favor an intelligent system of improving the arid lands of the West, storing the waters for the purpose of irrigation, and the holding of such lands for actual settlers.”

So in 1902, Roosevelt, by now our 26th president, found Congress receptive to the idea of reclamation—that is, reclaiming desolate land for productive use. Needless to say, such reclamation was to be done without anything like environmental impact statements; such paperwork would only come decades later.

TR established the Bureau of Reclamation within the Department of the Interior. As he declared in 1902, “Few subjects of more importance have been taken up by the Congress in recent years than the inauguration of the system of nationally aided irrigation for the arid regions of the far West.”

The urge to build public works for water reached its apex during the presidency of TR’s cousin, Franklin D. Roosevelt. Most notably, FDR launched the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA), which transformed the South. We might note that the TVA did far more than provide low-cost hydropower, important as that was—the Manhattan Project, at Oak Ridge, Tennessee, relied on TVA power—and is. In addition, TVA projects regularized water flows, preventing flooding and draining swamps, thereby all but eradicating malaria and yellow fever.

TVA was so popular that decades later, Democrats were still campaigning on it. For instance, the 1964 Democratic Platform pledged to “continue the quickened pace of comprehensive development of river basins in every section of the country, employing multi-purpose projects such as flood control, irrigation and reclamation, power generation, navigation, municipal water supply, fish and wildlife enhancement and recreation, where appropriate to realize the fullest possible benefits.” (We might note that this was at a time when the Republican presidential candidate, Barry Goldwater, was musing aloud about privatizing TVA—a foolishly ideological non-starter.)

Yet Democrats’ ardor for infrastructure eventually cooled. The first Earth Day was in 1970, and it was then that they found a new love. In 1972, the word “reclamation” fell out of the Democrats’ platform (they lost that election). They never did return to the old ways of the New Deal. Instead they went green—and, of course, NIMBY.

Interestingly, around this same time, the Republican Party, too, began to de-emphasize public works. To some extent, the GOP had also gone both green and NIMBY, but for the most part, Republicans had a different motivation—they wanted to spend less. That is, the old TR-ish approach of building out the country was giving way to a new emphasis on bean-counting.

The result was a tacit alliance of greens on the left and libertarians on the right, united in a “green scissors” approach to snipping infrastructure spending.

Without a doubt, this left-right combo has been effective in shrinking public efforts. As the Bureau of Reclamation’s history page tells it, “The heyday of Reclamation construction of water facilities occurred during the Depression and the thirty-five years after World War II. The last major authorization for construction projects occurred in the late 1960s.”

This cessation of ambitious new public works—stopped by legislation in the ’70s and by litigation ever since—is regarded as a triumph of green thinking. Red ink-minded budget cutters, too, are probably pleased.

Yet here’s the thing: even if virtually all water development projects have been stopped—as detailed here by Fresno resident Victor Davis Hanson, who’s seen the desiccation first hand—population growth has not stopped. In 1970, Americans numbered 205 million; they number more than 326 million today.

So what do we do with all these people? Where should they live? That’s a question that nobody seems to want to answer. And so, in the absence of policies that permit the continued dispersion of the population to reclaimed land, the default has been to pack folks into increasingly crowded conurbations.

For instance, a look at a population map of California shows that its people are jammed into just a few clusters.

The result of this dense packing has been runaway housing costs: the median home price in Los Angeles County—a place of 10.1 million—is $615,000. One might ask: how do ordinary people afford that? Answer: they don’t.

Yet whenever Californians seek to venture outside of the built-up cores, the lack of protective infrastructure haunts them—and burns them.

That’s the unmistakable signal of the recent fires, which most grievously impacted small towns such as Paradise, California, in faraway Butte County. The town’s former residents—all 27,000 of them—will have to think hard before they return to the charred remains of their homes, knowing that they face the prospect of another inferno in a few years.

In reaction to all these fires, California’s leaders have shown a curious, albeit purposeful, passivity. Just last week, Governor Jerry Brown mused aloud, in his wistful green way, “Our indigenous people had a different way of living with nature. For 10,000 years, there were never more than 300,000 [people living in California]. Now we have 40 million and we have a totally different situation. …It’s people. …And the truth is…things are not going to get better.”

We might pause over those last words: things are not going to get better. To put it mildly, this is not the can-do, pro-growth spirit of TR and FDR, to say nothing of past California governors from both parties, from Hiram Johnson to Brown’s own father, Pat Brown.

So what should we do? How do we protect rural Californians? We could start by pointing to little things—that aren’t so little if it’s your house—such as the need for more paved roads so that fire equipment can get to the fire.

We might also realize that water is not only the staff of life, but also the stuff of putting out fires. And if there’s not enough fresh water occurring naturally, well, we can make more. Yes, we can desalinate seawater, as this author has written about.

If the leaders of California wished to do so, they could make rural California safer and more hospitable to human development. To anticipate the inevitable criticism, nobody’s talking about paving over Yosemite. The state is almost 164,000 square miles, so there’s plenty of room for parks and people.

Of course, it’s perfectly obvious that California’s current leaders want no such such thing as exurban or rural population growth, because it conflicts with their green agenda.

Yet in politics, nothing is permanent, and anti-people political arrangements are even more fleeting. So one day, the dispossessed people of California—that is, the many millions dispossessed by green-imposed land scarcity—will wake up. We should hope that they will peacefully assert their right to shape their own destiny, that they will realize that if spreading out and owning a piece of land was a good idea for Americans in the 18th, 19th, and 20th centuries, it’s a good idea, too, for Americans in the 21st century.

If so, then the old social contract, the one that guided so much of our economic development, will be revived. Or, one might say, reclaimed.

As before, it will be all about making land and water available to all.

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“The Frenzy Of Black Friday As We Knew It Is Over”: Shopper Traffic Slumps At Stores Across America

ShopperTrak, a provider of channel checks and traffic insights for the retail industry, has just confirmed that foot traffic at  brick-and-mortar retail stores on Thanksgiving and Black Friday was disappointing. Preliminary data showed a 1% decline for the two-day period compared to 2017, with a 1.7% decline in traffic on Black Friday versus 2017. This decline in traffic is consistent with our forecast on Nov. 11 that traditional retailers could experience a weak holiday season. The culprit: online shopping.

“We know that online sales … has certainly eroded traffic from retailers over the years,” Brian Field, senior director of advisory services for ShopperTrak, told CNBC

And while foot traffic at shopping malls has been in a steady decline, frigid weather, something else we  warned about, also forced many consumers to shop from the comfort of their homes.  That was probably a wise choice, considering the widespread shootings, stampedes, and fights that erupted at some stores across the country. 

Another foot traffic report, this time from Bloomberg, showed that shopper traffic at malls and stores were similar to last year’s levels, if not entirely down for some locations.

One big caveat for this weekend, as we further discussed, is that Black Friday comes earlier and earlier every year. Retailers are offering deals in early November, and Thanksgiving day itself has now become a huge shopping day. An estimate by Citigroup said the Black Friday weekend would only make up 10% of retail sales in the fourth quarter.

“The frenzy of Black Friday as we knew it is over,” said Marshal Cohen, an analyst at researcher NPD Group, who visited stores in four states to start the holiday weekend. “We are watching the next edition of Black Friday, a more civilized and opportunistic edition.”

The data above suggests that consumers might not be able to save the economy, expected to enter a slowdown in early 2019.

There is a silver lining: offsetting the decline in traditional traffic, online sales hit another record high of over $6.2 billion on Black Friday according to Adobe Analytics, while online sales on Thanksgiving Day tagged $3.7 billion, up 28% from last year. 

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Trump’s Price Tag For Saving MbS: $450,000,000,000

Authored by Marco Carnelos via Middle East Eye,

US President Donald Trump’s latest statement on Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi’s murder is an extraordinary example of political sincerity – although backed by a completely wrong analysis. 

Trump departed from the usual empty and generic rhetoric made by former American presidents about Saudi Arabia. He made it very clear that the US will condone what Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman did, i.e ordering the killing of Khashoggi, because the kingdom is containing Iran, purchasing American weapons and is helping to control oil prices in line with American interests.

In other words, when American values, such as defending human rights and the rule of law, collide with American interests, Trump will opt for the latter. In fact, Trump statement confirms indirectly Middle East Eye’s report on the US intention to offer a way out to the Saudi crown prince from the Khashoggi quagmire.

A dangerous place

The first sentence of the statement: “The world is a very dangerous place!” is probably the only one that reflects a correct reading of the current international situation. Of course, the president of the United States skips, or does not care about, the fact that his country carries a significant degree of responsibility for this situation.

The support provided – so far – to Saudi Arabia’s war on Yemen, the bias shown on the Israeli-Palestinian question, the never-ending war in Afghanistan and before that the US’s toxic legacyin Iraq, are just a few examples.

The reasons provided to explain why the ‘world is dangerous’ follow the usual American position, reductive and oversimplified to say the least: all roads lead to Tehran.

The reference to the Yemen conflict is quite puzzling, as well as the proposed solution: “Saudi Arabia would gladly withdraw from Yemen if the Iranians would agree to leave.” Even more puzzling is the president’s vision about the responsibilities for terrorism.

He considers Iran “the world’s leading sponsor of terror” and then he makes a reference to Saudi kingdom’s efforts in this field: “Saudi Arabia has agreed to spend billions of dollars in leading the fight against Radical Islamic Terrorism.” Unfortunately, the historical and circumstantial evidence, as far as Saudi Arabia is concerned, point in just the opposite direction.

$450bn price tag

Apart from the flawed analysis, Trump’s statement is an extraordinary demonstration of realpolitik. Because the world is a very dangerous place, the United States will continue to support Saudi Arabia, no matter what. But the real purpose of Trump’s statement on Saudi last night is actually to fix a price for this support.

The hidden message that the statement was sending to the Saudi royal court is that to save himself the Saudi crown prince will be expected to disburse $450bn in investments.

The astronomical sums discussed during Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia last year and Saudi crown prince’s subsequent visit to the US, that so far had remained at the level of a declaration of intent, have to be transformed into binding contracts very soon.

And in case the message coming from Washington was not clear enough for the Saudis, Trump is even perfidious enough to mention possible initiatives by the US Congress going in different directions, hinting at the possibility of examine them: “I will consider whatever ideas are presented to me.” 

Translate: hurry up in drafting and signing the contracts!

Saving bin Salman

Trump is aware that the CIA has probably reached different conclusions on the responsibility of MBS in Khashoggi’s murder: “Our intelligence agencies continue to assess all information, but it could very well be that the crown prince had knowledge of this tragic event – maybe he did and maybe he didn’t!”

Certain sectors of the CIA still regret losing the excellent cooperation they had with the former crown prince, Mohammed bin Nayef, and they could complicate Trump’s plan to save the current crown prince.

There is a risk that this affair will also turn into another struggle between the White House and the intelligence agencies as happened with the Russiagate. Trump has questioned the analysis of US intelligence agencies according to which Russian intelligence hacked the Democratic party and voting systems during the US presidential elections in 2016.

To make matters worse, on Wednesday, a bipartisan group of senators sent a letter to Trump, triggering an investigation into Khashoggi’s disappearance.

The letter, written by Republican Senators Bob Corker and Lindsey Graham, and Democratic Senators Bob Menendez and Patrick Leahy, called for Trump to investigate Khashoggi’s disappearance under the Global Magnitsky Human Rights Accountability Act.

The Magnitsky Act allows the president to impose sanctions on a person or country that has engaged in a human rights violation. “It is a delicate situation when we have a longtime ally that we’ve had for decades, but we have a crown prince that I believe ordered the killing of a journalist,” Corker said in an interview.

In other words, saving Mohammed bin Salman will not be an easy undertaking, especially if further leaks from Turkey on Khashoggi’s murder should emerge with the smoking gun trail leading directly to the Saudi crown prince.

Hence, the Khashoggi saga is likely to go on.

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US Fast Food Chains Charred As Poorer Customers Aren’t Lovin’ It

While many sectors of the US economy are doing better than they have in years, fast food chains aren’t one of them, according to the Financial Times

US fast-food outlets experienced a 2.6% drop in customers during September vs. a year ago, according to MillerPulse, a restaurant industry data provider. The decline compares to a meager 0.8% y/y drop in August. 

Industry insiders are placing blame on several factors, including consumer demand for healthier alternatives and lower construction activity – “which means fewer building workers are picking up fast food on lunch breaks,” according to FT

And despite the lowest unemployment levels in decades (notwithstanding questionable number fuzzing), a seemingly robust economy isn’t translating to higher consumption of burgers, pizzas and milkshakes. 

Earlier this month Wendy’s CEO Todd Pengor said that low-income customers were failing to benefit as much as those with higher incomes. 

About 40 per cent of so-called quick-service restaurants’ customers earn $45,000 or less, said Mr Penegor as he presented his company’s third-quarter earnings. Wendy’s like-for-like sales in North America ticked down 0.2 per cent in the three months to September.

“We are seeing the lowest unemployment levels in a long time, high consumer confidence . . . but as you look at that income growth, it skewed significantly to higher-income households,” he said. “On the low end, you start looking at folks with rent and healthcare costs starting to rise that are really eating into some of the headway that they are making.” –FT

The lack of customers is having an effect up and down the industry. Earlier this month, the New England-based owner of D’Angelo Grilled Sandwiches and Papa Gino’s filed for bankruptcy protection and put itself up for sale after the two brands shuttered 95 restaurants. The company, PGHC Holdings, has $62 million in secured debt out of an overall debt burden of $100 million. 

The 169-strong Texas-based Taco Bueno chain, meanwhile, filed for Chapter 11 as well this month under a “prepackaged” restructuring plan under which franchisee Sun Holdings will take control of the Tex-Mex fast food chain. 

At the same time, fast food companies are pulling out all the stops to lure customers to their stores; McDonald’s recently introduced a $6 meal deal, while Burger King recently advertised 10 chicken nuggets for $1, and Applebee’s is trying to get people through the door with $1 cocktails. 

MillerPulse co-founder Larry Miller says the fast-food landscape is highly competitive. “Everyone wants to be their own boss and thinks they can run a restaurant, and access to capital is pretty easy with interest rates still fairly low.” 

Wedbush analyst Nick Setyan added to that, saying “We’ve been seeing a divergence between QSRs [quick-service restaurants] and higher end chains. We’ve really seen QSRs disappoint.

Setyan cites lower immigration, resulting in fewer low-income customers, along with the lower construction rates for the squeeze. FT notes that housing construction dropped 5.3% in September vs. August. 

 

 

 

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Overstock Surges 23% On News It Will Sell Retail Business, Launch tZero Crypto

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

In an obvious act of desperation, Overstock will sell its retail business to launch a crypto business called tZero.

Overstock CEO Patrick Byrne is so certain about blockchain technology that he’s planning to sell Overstock’s retail business to Launch tZero.

Byrne announced tZero in 2015 and it has been losing money ever since, along with everything else Overstock does.

Overstock has invested $175 million in a fully owned unit called Medici Ventures Inc. that houses tZero and a collection of startups developing new uses for blockchain technology a method of recording, sharing and securing data over public computer networks that underpins bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

One startup is working with the Rwandan government to develop a digital property-rights platform. Another, Voatz, ran a blockchain-based pilot with West Virginia that allowed military personnel serving overseas to cast their votes in the midterm elections through a smartphone app.

Mr. Byrne’s quest has been costly for Overstock. Medici lost $39 million through the first nine months of 2018, following a $22 million loss in 2017. (All told, Overstock lost $163.7 million through the first nine months of 2018.)

Overstock shares also have suffered. In 2017, the company’s stock traced bitcoin’s mania, rising from $15 in the summer to nearly $87 by January 2018

Overstock Losses

Cold Fusion

I don’t care whether tZero is losing $2 million a month,” Mr. Byrne said in an interview.

“We think we’ve got cold fusion on the blockchain side.”

Byrne declined to name potential suitors, but expects to wrap up a deal by February.

He envisions a platform that would trade assets that could be easily traced and tracked. Initially, it would trade security tokens—a combination of a bitcoin-like digital token and a traditional bond or stock. It is also developing a product called digital locate receipt, a way of tracking equities borrowed for short selling.

Trying to get all the regulatory approvals for this has taken time, and tZero has blown past several expected launch dates. The company says it will go live in the first quarter.

Still, security tokens are still more theory than reality. Mr. Byrne said tZero will have one asset available for trading when it launches: its own security token. Earlier this year, tZero closed on an offering of the tokens that raised $134 million.

Appropriately Named tZero

I like the name. It will head To Zero like most of the rest of the crypto business.

This is an act of pure desperation by a company that clearly running out of cash.

Of course, Byrne can stay in business as long as he can get get enough suckers to buy useless tokens.

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Carlos Ghosn Underestimated Pay By As Much As $100 Million: Report

It has been nearly a week since Tokyo prosecutors boarded legendary auto executive Carlos Ghosn’s private jet and dragged him away in handcuffs to his new temporary residence: An 52-square-foot cell at the Tokyo Detention Center. Nobody has heard from Ghosn since – though media reports claim that the French ambassador to Japan has paid him a visit.

In the meantime, he has been ousted from Nissan’s board and (temporarily) relieved of his CEO duties at Renault. Speculation about the possible collapse of the Nissan-Renault-Mitsubishi alliance that Ghosn created has proliferated, with the Wall Street Journal publishing a detailed report on Friday about the resentments toward Renault that had been building at Nissan, where senior executives, possibly including Hirohito Saikawa, have bristled at the influence exercised by men they see as foreign intruders (indeed, some have suggested that Ghosn’s arrest was the result of a boardroom plot orchestrated by Saikawa).

But while so much remains uncertain for Ghosn and for the companies he until recently led, details about his alleged wrongdoing remain vague.

Ghosn

In what is perhaps the most detailed explanation on the circumstances surrounding Ghosn’s arrest, the nature of his alleged wrongdoings and the emerging tensions between Nissan and Renault, WSJ reported earlier this week that prosecutors believe the missing $44 million – the amount by which Ghosn allegedly underreported his income over 5 years – includes a type of stock-based compensation called share-appreciation rights. These pay out when the share price surmounts a given level. Though it’s important to remember that Ghosn has yet to be officially charged, and neither has his alleged accomplice, Nissan director Greg Kelly.

And now, a report in Japan’s Kyodo News claims that the amount that Ghosn is suspected of underreporting could be more than double that $44 million figure. Between 2010 and the present day, Ghosn may have underreported his income by as much as 12 billion yen – roughly $100 million. In addition to the underreporting, Ghosn is also under investigation for improperly using funds from a Dutch joint venture between Nissan and Renault to buy “corporate housing” (luxury homes in Brazil and Lebanon) that effectively served as personal residences.

But he was arrested by Tokyo prosecutors for allegedly reporting remuneration about 4.99 billion yen less than he had actually received over five years from April 2010. He is believed to have received nearly 100 billion yen in the period.

The prosecutors are also considering building a case against allegedly underreporting a further 3 billion yen in remuneration received over three years from April 2015.

Ghosn is also suspected to have not reported about 4 billion yen from stock appreciation rights, a scheme similar to stock options that pays bonuses to executives if a company’s share price rises above a certain level.

Ghosn also allegedly used company-bought residences in the Netherlands, Brazil, France and Lebanon without paying rent, while making the company pay for family trips and his private wining and dining expenses.

Whatever evidence was unearthed by Nissan’s internal investigation into Ghosn’s misdeeds must be fairly convincing. After two board members from Renault were initially reluctant to vote to oust Ghosn on Thursday, Nissan supplied them with ledgers detailing Ghosn’s alleged under reporting of his income. While he was underpaid compared with other executives of similar stature in his industry, Ghosn also drew salaries from his role as chairman and CEO of Renault and as chairman of Mitsubishi. 

Ghosn

After reading the ledgers, they reportedly agreed that the evidence was sufficient to vote to remove Ghosn and Kelly. According to Kyodo News, Nissan discovered that Ghosn had given Kelly two figures to be used when reporting his remuneration. One set of figures that represented what Ghosn actually made, and another, smaller, set of figures that he wanted reported to the exchange.

Meanwhile, sordid details about Ghosn’s personal life were share by his ex-wife Rita, who hinted at possible abuse during their marriage in a cryptic message posted to social media:  “All narcissists are hypocrites. They pretend to have morals and values that they really don’t possess. Behind closed doors, they lie, insult, criticize, disrespect and abuse. They can do and say whatever they want, but how dare you say anything back to them or criticize them. They have a whole set of rules for others, but follow none of their own rules, and practice nothing of what they preach.”

To sum up, by the time Tokyo’s prosecutors are finished with their investigation, Ghosn may be forever cut off from the lifestyle that allowed him to afford a lavish wedding reception at the Palace of Versaille.

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13 Illustrations Of The Benevolence Of Capitalism

Authored by George Reisman via The Mises Institute,

By the “benevolent nature of capitalism,” I mean the fact that it promotes human life and well-being and does so for everyone. There are many such insights, which have been developed over more than three  centuries, by a series of great thinkers, ranging from John Locke to Ludwig von Mises and Ayn Rand. I present as many of them as I can in my book Capitalism.

I’m going to briefly discuss about a dozen or so of these insights that I consider to be the most important, and which I believe, taken all together, make the case for capitalism irresistible. Let me say that I apologize for the brevity of my discussions. Each one of the insights I go into would all by itself require a discussion longer than the entire time that has been allotted to me to speak today. Fortunately, I can fall back on the fact that, in my book at least, I  think I have presented them in the detail they deserve.

And now, let me begin. 

1) Individual freedom – an essential feature of capitalism – is the foundation of security, in the sense both of personal safety and of economic security. Freedom means the absence of the initiation of physical force. When one is free, one is safe—secure—from common crime, because what one is free of or free from is precisely acts such as assault and battery, robbery, rape, and murder, all of which represent the initiation of physical force. Even more important, of course, is that when one is free, one is free from the initiation of physical force on the part of the government, which is potentially far more deadly than that of any private criminal gang. (The Gestapo and the KGB, for example, with their enslavement and murder of millions made private criminals look almost kind by comparison.)

The fact that freedom is the absence of the initiation of physical force also means that peace is a corollary of freedom. Where there is freedom, there is peace, because there is no use of force: insofar as force is not initiated, the use of force in defense or retaliation is not required. 

The economic security provided by freedom derives from the fact that under freedom, everyone can choose to do whatever he judges to be most in his own interest, without fear of being stopped by the physical force of anyone else, so long as he himself does not initiate the use of physical force. This means, for example, that he can take the highest paying job he can find and buy from the most competitive suppliers he can find; at the same time, he can keep all the income he earns and save as much of it as he likes, investing his savings in the most profitable ways he can. The only thing he cannot do is use force himself. With the use of force prohibited, the way an individual increases the money he earns is by using his reason to figure out how to offer other people more or better goods and services for the same money, since this is the means of inducing them voluntarily to spend more of their funds in buying from him rather than from competitors. Thus, freedom is the basis of everyone being as economically secure as the exercise of his own reason and the reason of his suppliers can make him.

2) A continuing increase in the supply of economically useable, accessible natural resources is possible as man converts a larger fraction of the virtual infinity that is nature into economic goods and wealth, on the foundation both of  growing knowledge of nature and growing physical power over it. (For elaboration of this important point, see “Environmentalism in the Light of Menger and Mises” in the 2002 summer issue of The Quarterly Journal of Austrian Economics.)

3) Production and economic activity, by their very nature, serve to improve man’s environment. This is because from the point of view of physics and chemistry, all that production and economic activity consist of is the rearrangement of the same nature-given chemical elements in different combinations and their movement to different geographical locations. The guiding purpose of this rearrangement and movement is essentially nothing other than to make the chemical elements stand in an improved relationship to human life and well-being. It puts the chemical elements in combinations and locations where they provide greater utility, greater benefit to human beings.

The relationship of the chemical elements iron and copper, for example, to man’s life and well-being is greatly improved when they are extracted from beneath the earth and made to appear in such products as automobiles, refrigerators, and electric cable. The relationship of chemical elements such as carbon, hydrogen, oxygen, and nitrogen to man’s life and well-being is improved when they can be made to yield electric light and power. The relationship of a piece of land to man’s life and well-being is improved when instead of his having to sleep upon it in a sleeping bag and take precautions against snakes, scorpions, and other wildlife, he can sleep in a well-constructed modern home that is built upon it, with all the utilities and appliances we take for granted. 

The totality of the chemical elements in their relationship to man, constitutes man’s external, material environment, and precisely this is what production and economic activity serve to improve, by their very nature.

4) The division of labor, a leading feature of capitalism, which can exist in highly developed form only under capitalism, provides among other major benefits, the enormous gains from the multiplication of the amount of knowledge that enters into the productive process and its continuing, progressive increase. Just consider: each distinct occupation, each suboccupation, has its own distinct body of knowledge. In a division-of-labor, capitalist society, there are as many distinct bodies of knowledge entering into the productive process as there are distinct jobs. The totality of this knowledge operates to the benefit of each individual, in his capacity as a consumer, when he buys the products produced by others — and much or most of it also in his capacity as a producer, insofar as his production is aided by the use of capital goods previously produced by others.

Thus a given individual may work as a carpenter, say. His specialized body of knowledge is that of carpentering. But in his capacity as a consumer, he obtains the benefit of all the other distinct occupations throughout the economic system. The existence of such an extended body of knowledge is essential to the very existence of many products — all products that require in their production more knowledge than any one individual or small number of individuals can hold. Such products, of course, include machinery, which could simply not be produced in the absence of an extensive division of labor and the vast body of knowledge it represents.

Moreover, in a division-of-labor, capitalist society, a large proportion of the most intelligent and ambitious members of society, such as geniuses and other individuals of great ability, choose their concentrations precisely in areas that have the effect of progressively improving and increasing the volume of knowledge that is applied in production. This is the effect of such individuals concentrating on areas such as science, invention, and business.

5) At least since the time of Adam Smith and David Ricardo, it has been known that there is a tendency in a capitalist economy toward an equalization of the rate of profit, or rate of return, on capital across all branches of the economic system. Where rates of return are above average, they provide the incentive and also the means for stepped up investment and thus more production and supply, which then operates to reduce prices and the rate of return. Where rates of return are below average, the result is reduced investment and reduced production and supply, followed by a rise in profits and the rate of return. Thus high rates of profit come down and low rates come up.

The operation of this principle not only serves to keep the different branches of a capitalist economy in a proper balance with one another, but it also serves to give the consumers the power to determine the relative size of the various industries, simply on the basis of their pattern of buying and abstention from buying, to use the words of von Mises. Where the consumers spend more, profits rise, and where they spend less, profits fall. In response to the higher profits, investment and production are increased, and in response to the lower profits or losses, they are decreased. Thus the pattern of investment and production is made to follow the pattern of consumer spending.

Perhaps even more importantly, the operation of the tendency toward a uniform rate of return on capital invested serves to bring about a pattern of progressive improvement in products and methods of production. Any given business can earn an above-average rate of return by introducing a new or improved product that consumers want to buy, or a more efficient, lower-cost method of producing an existing product. But then the high profit it enjoys attracts competitors, and once the innovation becomes generally adopted, the high profit disappears, with the result that the consumers gain the full benefit of the innovation. They end up getting better products and paying lower prices.

If the firm that made the innovation wants to continue to earn an exceptional rate of profit, it must introduce further innovations, which end up with the same results. Earning a high rate of profit for a prolonged period of time requires the introduction of a continuing series of innovations, with the consumers obtaining the full benefit of  all of the innovations up to the most recent ones.

6) As von Mises has shown, in a market economy, which, of course, is what capitalism is, private ownership of the means of production operates to the benefit of everyone, the nonowners, as well as owners. The nonowners obtain the benefit of the means of production owned by other people. They obtain this benefit as and when they buy the products of those means of production. To get the benefit of General Motors’ factories and their equipment, or the benefit of Exxon’s oil fields, pipelines, and refineries, I do not have to be a stockholder or a bondholder in those firms. I merely have to be in a position to buy an automobile, or gasoline, or whatever, that they produce.

Moreover, thanks to the dynamic, progressive aspect of the uniformity-of-rate-of-profit or rate-of-return principle that I explained a moment ago, the general benefit from privately owned means of production to the nonowners continually increases, as they are enabled to buy ever more and better products at progressively falling real prices. It cannot be stressed too strongly that these progressive gains, and the generally rising living standards that they translate into, vitally depend on the capitalist institutions of private ownership of the means of production, the profit motive, and economic competition, and would not be possible without them. It is these that underlie motivated, effective individual initiative in raising the standard of living.

7) A corollary of the general benefit from private ownership of the means of production is the general benefit from the institution of inheritance. Not only heirs but also nonheirs benefit from its existence. The nonheirs benefit because the institution of inheritance encourages saving and capital accumulation, to the extent that it leads people to accumulate and maintain capital for transmission to their heirs. The result of the existence of this extra accumulated capital is more means of production producing for the market, and thus more and better products for everyone to buy.

The effect of additional capital, of course, is also an additional demand for labor, and thus higher wage rates. The demand for labor, it should be realized, is a major means by which all privately owned means of production operate to the benefit of nonowners. Capital underlies  the demand for labor as well as the supply of products.

8) Under capitalism, not only is one man’s gain not another man’s loss, insofar as it comes out of an increase in overall, total production, but also—in the most important cases, namely, those of the building of great industrial fortunes — one man’s gain is positively other men’s gain. This follows from the fact that the sheer arithmetical requirements of building a great fortune are a combination of the earning of a high rate of profit on capital for a prolonged period of time, and the saving and reinvestment of the far greater part of the profits earned, year after year.

As we have seen, the earning of a high rate of profit for a prolonged period of time, in the face of competition, requires the introduction of a series of significant innovations. These innovations represent better and less expensive products for the consumers. The saving and reinvestment of the profits earned on the innovations constitute the accumulation of means of production, which also serves the consumers. Thus both in their origin, in high profits, and in their disposition, in the accumulation of capital, great industrial fortunes represent corresponding gains to the general consuming public. For example, old Henry Ford’s starting with a capital of $25,000 in 1903 and ending with a capital of $1 billion in 1946 was the other side of the coin of the average person becoming enabled to buy a greatly improved, far more efficiently produced automobile—produced largely in factories representing Ford’s billion.

9) As von Mises has shown, the economic competition that takes place under capitalism is radically different than the biological competition that prevails in the animal kingdom. In fact, its character is diametrically opposite. The animal species are confronted with scarce, nature-given means of subsistence, whose supply they are unable to increase. Man, by virtue of his possession of reason, can increase the supply of everything on which his survival and well-being depend. Thus, instead of the biological competition of animals striving to grab off limited supplies of nature-given necessities, with the strong succeeding and the weak perishing, economic competition under capitalism is a competition in who can increase the supply of things the most, with the outcome being practically everyone surviving longer and better. 

Totally unlike lions in the jungle, who must compete for a limited supply of animals such as zebras and gazelles, by means of the power of their senses and limbs, producers under capitalism are in competition for a limited supply of dollars in the hands of consumers, which they compete for by means of offering the best and most economical products their minds can devise. Since such competition is a competition in the positive creation of new and additional wealth, there are no genuine long-run losers as the result of it. There are only winners. 

The competition of farmers and farm-equipment manufacturers enables the hungry and weak to eat and grow strong; that of pharmaceutical manufacturers enables the sick to recover their health; that of eye-glass and hearing-aid manufacturers enables many who otherwise could not see or hear, to do so. So far from being a competition whose outcome is “the survival of the fittest,” the competition of capitalism is more accurately described as a competition whose outcome is the survival of all, or at least of more and more, for longer and longer and ever better. The only sense in which only the “fittest” survive is that it is the fittest products and fittest methods of production that survive, until replaced by still fitter products and methods of production, with the effects on human survival just described.

As von Mises has also shown, with his development of Ricardo’s law of comparative advantage into the law of association, there is room for all in the competition of capitalism. Even those who are less capable than others in every respect have a place. In fact, in large measure, competition under capitalism, so far from being a matter of conflict among human beings, is a process of organizing that one great system of social cooperation known as the division of labor. It decides at what point in this all-embracing system of social cooperation each individual will make his specific contribution—who, for example, and for how long, will be a captain of industry, and who will be a janitor, and who will fill all the positions in between.

In this competition, each individual, however limited his abilities, is enabled to outcompete all others, however superior to him in their abilities they may be, for his special place. Quite literally, and as an everyday occurrence, those with abilities no greater than required to be a janitor are able to outcompete, hands down, without question, the world’s greatest productive geniuses — for the job of janitor. For example, Bill Gates might be so superior an individual that in addition to being able to revolutionize the software industry, he might be able to clean five times as many square feet of office space in the same time as any janitor now living, and do it better. But if Gates can earn a million dollars an hour running Microsoft, and janitors can be found willing to work for, say, $10 an hour, their readiness to perform the job at one one-hundred thousandth of the hourly rate Gates would require, so far dwarfs their lesser abilities that it is they who are “hors de concours” in this case.

At the same time, because productive geniuses are free to succeed in revolutionizing products and methods of production, those with abilities no greater than required to be janitors are able to enjoy not only food, clothing, and shelter, but even such products as automobiles, television sets, and personal computers, products whose very existence they could probably never have even dreamed of on their own.

The losses associated with competition are at most short-run losses only. For example, once the  blacksmiths and horse breeders put out of business by the automobile found other lines of work on a comparable level, the only lasting effect of the automobile on them was that they too, in their capacity as consumers, came to enjoy the advantages of the automobile over the horse. Similarly, farmers using mules, who were driven out of business by the competition of  farmers using tractors, did not die of starvation, but simply had to change their line of work, and when they did so, they along with everyone else enjoyed both a more abundant supply of food and of other products as well, which other products could be produced precisely on the foundation of labor released from agriculture.

Even in those cases in which an isolated competition results in an individual having to spend the remainder of his life at a lower station than he enjoyed before, for example, the owner of a buggy-whip factory having to live for the rest of his life as an ordinary wage earner after being put out of business by the automobile—even he cannot reasonably claim that competition has harmed him. The most he can reasonably claim is merely that from this point on, the immense gains he derives from competition are less than the still more immense gains he derived from it previously. For competition is what underlies the production and supply of everything he continues to be able to buy and is what is responsible for the purchas­ing power of every dollar of his and everyone else’s income. And, of course, it proceeds to raise his real income from the level to which it was set back. Indeed, under capitalism, competition proceeds to raise the standard of living of the average wage earner above that  of even the very wealthiest people in the world a few generations earlier. (Today, for example, the average wage earner in a capitalist country has a standard of living higher than that even of Queen Victoria, in probably every respect except the ability to employ servants.)

10) And now, once more with credit to Mises, so far from being the planless chaos and “anarchy of production” that is alleged by Marxists, capitalism is in actuality as thoroughly and rationally planned an economic system as it is possible to have. The planning that goes on under capitalism, without hardly ever being recognized as such, is the planning of each individual participant in the economic system. Every individual who thinks about a course of economic activity that would be of benefit to him and how to carry it out is engaged in economic planning. Individuals plan to buy homes, automobiles, appliances, and, indeed, even groceries. They plan what jobs to train for and where to offer and apply the abilities they possess. Business firms plan to introduce new products or discontinue existing products; they plan to change their methods of production or continue to use the methods they presently use; they plan to open branches or close branches; they plan to hire new workers or layoff workers they presently employ; they plan to add to their inventories or reduce their inventories. 

Still more examples of routine, everyday economic planning by private individuals and businesses could be found. Private economic planning is everywhere around us and everyone engages in it. But, to everyone except students of Mises, it is invisible. To those who are ignorant of Mises, economic planning is the province of government.

Immense, all-pervasive private economic planning not only exists, but it is also all coordinated, integrated, harmonized to produce a cohesively planned economic system. The means by which this is accomplished is the price system. All of the economic planning of private individuals and business firms takes place on the basis of a consideration of prices—prices constituting costs and prices constituting revenue or income. Individuals planning to buy goods or services of any kind always consider the prices of those goods and services and are prepared to change their plans in the face of price changes. Individuals planning to sell goods or services always consider the prices they can expect for their goods or services and are also prepared to change their plans in the face of price changes. Business firms, of course, base their plans on a consideration both of sales revenues and of costs and thus of the respective prices constituting both, and are prepared to change their plans in response to changes in profitability. 

Thus, for example, when my wife and I first moved to California, our housing plan was to purchase a house high on a hill overlooking the Pacific Ocean. But after learning the price of such houses, we quickly decided that we needed to revise our housing plan and look for a house several miles inland instead. In this way, we were led to change our housing plan in a way that made it harmonize with the plans of other people, who also planned to buy the kind of house we were originally planning to buy but, in addition, were willing and able to commit to their plan more money than we were willing and able to commit. The higher bids of others and our consideration of those bids brought about a harmonization of our housing plan with theirs.

Similarly, a naive college freshman might have a career plan that calls for him to major in Medieval French literature or Renaissance poetry. But sometime before the start of his junior year, he comes to realize that if he persists in such a career plan, he can expect to live his life starving in a garret. On the other hand, if he changes his career plan and majors in a field such as accounting or engineering, he can expect to live very comfortably. And so he changes his career plan and major. In changing his career plan on the basis of a consideration of prospective income, the student is making a change that better accords with the plans of others in the economic system. For execution of the plans of others requires the services of far more accountants and engineers than it does the services of literary experts.

A last example: consumers change their dietary plan, and thus plan, say, to eat more fish and chicken and less red meat. This results in a corresponding change in their pattern of buying and abstention from buying. Now, in order to maintain their profitability, supermarkets and restaurants must plan to change their offerings, namely, to increase the respective quantities of fish and chicken and fish and chicken entrees or sandwiches they supply, and decrease the quantities of red meat and red-meat entrees or sandwiches they supply. These plan changes, and corresponding purchase changes, on the part of supermarkets and restaurants result in further plan changes and purchase changes, on the part of their suppliers and on the part of their suppliers’ suppliers, and so on, until the entire economic system has been sufficiently replanned to accord with the change in the plans and purchases of the consumers.

The price system and the consideration of cost and revenue that it entails on the part of all individuals leads to the economic system continually being replanned in response to changes in demand or supply in a way that maximizes gains and minimizes losses and ensures that each individual process of production is carried on in a way that is maximally conducive to production in the rest of the economic system.

For example, as the result of a decrease in the supply of crude oil, there will be a rise in the price of crude oil and of oil products. All individual buyers will consider the higher prices in relation to their own specific circumstances—in the case of consumers, their own needs and desires; in the case of business firms, their ability to pass along the increase to customers. And all of them will consider the alternatives to the use of oil or oil products available to them specifically. Thus, on the basis of his individual thinking and planning, each of the participants will reduce his demand for the items in a way that least impairs his well-being. And in this way, the thinking and planning of all participants in the economic system who use oil or oil products will enter into the determination of where and by how much the quantity of oil and oil products demanded decreases in response to a rise in their price. This is clearly an instance of responding to a loss of supply in a way that minimizes the loss. The reduction in supply will be accompanied by an equivalent reduction in its use in the least important of the employments for the which the previously larger supply had been sufficient.

Similarly, the price system and the individual thinking and planning of all participants leads to the maximization of the gains from an increase in the supply of any scarce factor of production. The additional supply is absorbed in those uses in which it is most highly valued, that is, in which it can be absorbed with the least fall in price.

Ironically, while capitalism is an economic system that is thoroughly and rationally planned, and continuously replanned in response to changes in economic conditions, socialism, as Mises has shown, is incapable of rational economic planning. In destroying the price system and its foundations, namely, private ownership of the means of production, the profit motive, and competition, socialism destroys the intellectual division of labor that is essential to rational economic planning. It makes the impossible demand that the planning of the economic system be carried out as an indivisible whole in a single mind that only an omniscient deity could possess.

What socialism represents is so far from rational economic planning that it is actually the prohibition of rational economic planning. In the first instance, by its very nature, it is a prohibition of economic planning by everyone except the dictator and the other members of the central planning board. They are to enjoy a monopoly privilege on planning, in the absurd, virtually insane belief that their brains can achieve the all-seeing, all-knowing capabilities of  omniscient deities. They cannot. Thus, what socialism actually represents is the attempt to substitute the thinking and planning of one man, or at most of a mere handful of men, for the thinking and planning of tens and hundreds of millions, indeed, of billions of men. By its nature, this attempt to make the brains of so few meet the needs of so many has no more prospect of success than would an attempt to make the legs of so few the vehicle for carrying the weight of so many.

To have rational economic planning, the independent thinking and planning of all are required, operating in an environment of private ownership of the means of production and the price system, i.e., capitalism.

11) I turn now to the subject of monopoly. Socialism is the system of monopoly. Capitalism is the system of freedom and free competition.

As Mises has pointed out, the essential nature-given requirements of human life, such as drinking water, arable land, and the accessible supplies of practically all minerals are typically available in quantities so great that not all available sources can be exploited. The labor that would be required is not available. It is employed on pieces of land and mineral deposits that are more productive or in the numerous operations of manufacturing and commerce, where its employment is demonstrated by market prices to be more important than the production of an additional supply of agricultural commodities or minerals. 

In these conditions, and in the absence of government interference, what is required to enable any producer (or combination of producers) to become the sole supplier of anything is that the price he charges is too low to make it worthwhile for other potential suppliers to enter the field. The position of sole supplier is secured by lowness of price, and is not the basis for imposing a high price.

The same essential point applies to cases in which the necessity of investing large sums of capital sharply limits the number of suppliers. Here a large capital is required in order to achieve low unit costs of production, which are necessary in order to be profitable at low selling prices.

Monopoly is actually the result of government intervention. Specifically it is the reservation of a market or part of a market to one or more suppliers by means of the initiation of physical force. Exclusive government franchises, protective tariffs, and licensing laws are examples.

12) Capitalism is a system of progressively rising real wages, the shortening of hours, and the improvement of working conditions. Contrary to Adam Smith and Karl Marx, businessmen and capitalists do not deduct profits from what allegedly was originally all wages or what allegedly is naturally and rightfully all wages. The original and primary form of income is profit, not wages. Manual workers producing and selling products either in Adam Smith’s “early and rude state of society” or in Karl Marx’s “simple circulation” did not earn wages, but sales revenues. When one sells a loaf of bread or a pair of shoes, or any other product, one is not paid a wage but a sales revenue. And precisely because those manual workers did not behave as capitalists, i.e., did not buy for the sake of selling but made expenditures merely as consumers,  they made no expenditures for means of producing whatever goods they may have sold, and thus they incurred no money costs to be deducted from their sales revenues; i.e., the full magnitude of their sales revenues was profit, not wages. Profit, it turns out, is the original and primary form of labor income.

Contrary to Adam Smith and Karl Marx, it is only with the coming of capitalists and the accumulation of capital that the phenomenon of wages comes into existence, along with the demand for capital goods. Both wages and the expenditure for capital goods show up as money costs of production which must be deducted from sales revenues. The more economically capitalistic the economic system, in the sense of the greater is the buying for the purpose of earning sales revenues, relative to sales revenues, the higher are wages and other costs relative to sales revenues, and thus the lower are profits relative both to sales revenues and to wages. In other words, what capitalists are responsible for is not the creation of the phenomenon of profit and its deduction from wages, but the creation of the phenomena of wages and money costs and their deduction from sales revenues, which were originally all profit. Capitalists are responsible for the creation of wages and the reduction of the proportion of sales revenues that represents profit. The more numerous and the wealthier are capitalists, the higher are wages relative to profits.

The fact that wage earners may be willing to work for minimum subsistence, in the absence of any better alternative, and that businessmen and capitalists, like any other buyer, prefer to pay less rather than more, are propositions that are true but utterly irrelevant to the determination of the wages that the wage earners must actually accept. Those wages are determined by the competition of employers for labor, which is both the most fundamentally useful element in the economic system and is intrinsically scarce. 

In that competition, it is against the self-interest of any employer to allow wage rates to go below the point corresponding to the full employment of the kind of labor in question, in the location in question. Such low wage rates mean that the quantity of labor demanded exceeds the supply available, i.e., that there is a shortage of the labor concerned. A shortage of labor is comparable to an auction in which there are still two or more bidders for one and the same item. The only way that the bidder who wants the item the most can secure it, is by outbidding his rivals and making the item too expensive for them, so that they must step aside and make it possible for him to secure the item. 

In the labor market there may be tens or even hundreds of millions of workers. But the scarcity of labor means that there are potential jobs for far more than that number. The fact that each of us would like the benefit of the labor of at least ten others can be taken as an indication of the extent of the scarcity of labor.

When a wage rate goes below the point corresponding to the full employment of the kind of labor concerned, it becomes possible for employers not able or willing to pay that higher rate to obtain labor at the expense of other employers who are able and willing to pay that higher rate. The situation is exactly the same as the stronger bidder at an auction who is faced with the loss of the item he wants to another, weaker bidder. The way to secure the labor he needs is to raise the bidding and knock out the competition of the weaker employers. 

In the face of labor shortages, which appear when ceiling prices are imposed on labor, employers actually conspire with their employees to evade the spirit of the wage controls, by giving out phony promotions. This enables them to claim that they are not violating the controls when in fact they are.

Now, given the height of money wage rates, which we have seen is determined by the competition of employers for scarce labor, what determines real wages, i.e., the goods and services that the wage earners can buy with the money they earn, is prices. Real wages are determined fully as much by prices as they are by wages. Real wages rise only when prices fall relative to wages.

What makes prices fall relative to wages is a rise in the productivity of labor, i.e.,  the output per unit of labor. A rise in the productivity of labor means a larger supply of consumers goods relative to the supply of labor, and thus lower prices of consumers’ goods relative to wage rates. If we could somehow measure the supply of consumers’ goods, a doubling of the productivity of labor would operate to double the supply of consumers’ goods relative to the supply of labor and, in the face of the same overall respective expenditures to buy consumers’ goods and labor, result in a halving of the prices of consumers’ goods in the face of the same overall average wage rates. In other words, it would double real wage rates.

The rise in the productivity of labor is always the essential element in the rise in real wages. It is what enables increases in the quantity of money and volume of spending, which are responsible for higher average money wages, being accompanied by prices that do not rise or do not rise to the same extent as wages.

And what is responsible for the rise in the productivity of labor is the activities of businessmen and capitalists. Their progressive innovations and capital accumulation underlie the rise in the productivity of labor and thus in real wages.

13) Finally, my last point: a one-hundred- percent-reserve, precious-metals monetary system  would make a capitalist society both inflation-proof and deflation/depression-proof. The modest increase in the supply of precious metals, and thus the modest rate of increase in the volume of spending that proceeds from it, would not be able to raise prices in the face of the substantial rate at which the production and supply of practically all goods other than the precious metals increases under capitalism. Prices would most likely tend to fall, as they did over the course of the Nineteenth Century. 

Falling prices due to increased production, however, do not constitute deflation. They do not signify any reduction in the average rate of profit, that is, the average rate of return on capital invested. Nor do they signify any greater difficulty of repaying debts. Yet a plunge in profits and a sudden increase in the difficulty of repaying debt are essential symptoms of deflation/depression. 

Indeed, the modest increase in the quantity of money and volume of spending that goes on under a one-hundred- percent-reserve, precious-metals monetary system serves to add a positive component to the rate of return and to make debt repayment somewhat easier, not more difficult. The falling prices caused by increased production do not interfere with this. When prices fall because of increased production in the face of an increase in the quantity of money and volume of spending, the average seller is in the position of having a supply of goods to sell that is larger in greater proportion than prices are lower and thus to be able to earn more money, not less.

Genuine deflation, the accompaniment of depression, is financial contraction—that is, a decrease in the quantity of money and/or volume of spending. This is what wipes out profitability and makes debt repayment more difficult. But such contraction is precisely what a one-hundred- percent-reserve, precious-metals monetary system prevents. It prevents it because once precious-metal money comes into existence, it does not suddenly go out of existence, as occurs with fiduciary media when the banks that issue them fail. And because its rate of increase is modest, it does not lead to any substantial, artificial reduction in the demand for money for holding, which then must be followed by a reversal when the increase in the quantity of money stops or slows.

Nor do the continuous saving and capital accumulation that go on under capitalism operate to reduce the rate of return on capital. The nominal saving that takes place out of money income, takes place largely out of a rate of return that is elevated by the increase in the quantity of money and volume of spending, and, so long as the quantity of money and volume of spending go on modestly increasing, that saving does not reduce the rate of return.

If there were no increase in the quantity of money and volume of spending, the rate of return would be lower, but stable at the lower level. Capital accumulation would proceed simply on the basis of falling replacement prices, with unchanged expenditures buying progressively larger quantities of capital goods. 

In such a context, the role of saving exists entirely at the gross level, where it determines such vital matters as the degree to which the economic system concentrates on the production of capital goods relative to the production of consumers’ goods and the length of the period of production. The essential elements in capital accumulation then stand revealed as a sufficiently high relative production of capital goods, and sufficiently long period of production, together with technological progress and anything else that serves to increase production, above all, economic freedom.

Here, for lack of time. I must close. I’d like to do so by saying that if you’ve found my talk today to be of interest, I hope you will explore the matters I’ve discussed, at greater length and in detail in my book. Its entire sum and substance can be understood as a systematic exposition of the benevolent nature of capitalism.

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Assange Lawyers Barred From Visiting Client Ahead Of US Court Hearing

After being cooped up for six years inside the Ecuadorian Embassy in London, the Department of Justice is finally closing in on Julian Assange, and the government of Ecuadorian President Lenin Moreno is doing everything in its power to evict its most infamous tenant. To wit, lawyers for Assange have been refused entry to the Ecuadorian Embassy in London, WikiLeaks announced in a tweet, which has only helped to spur fears that Assange will soon be evicted. And what’s worse, he’s being denied access to legal counsel at a time of desperate need.

Assange

WikiLeaks said the Ecuadorian government refused to allow Assange’s lawyers, Aitor Martinez and Jen Robinson, to meet with their client this week, which is a huge problem for the whistleblower, because Assange is facing a US court hearing Tuesday, and needs to meet with his legal team to prepare.

The hearing is being called to remove the secrecy order on the charges against Assange (which were only publicly revealed because of a copy and paste error).

“The hearing is on Tuesday in the national security court complex at Alexandria, Virginia,” WikiLeaks tweeted, adding it is to “remove the secrecy order on the US charges against him.”

Visitors to Assange were only recently readmitted after being cut off by the Ecuadorian government. The government also restored Assange’s communications in October. But this was accompanied by restrictions on Assange’s communications.

In another sign that Moreno is preparing to oust Assange, the Ecuadorian government recently terminated the credentials of Ecuador’s London ambassador Abad Ortiz without explanation. As Wikileaks explained:

“Now all diplomats known to Assange have now been  transferred away from the embassy.”

Assange has been living in the embassy since June 2012 after seeking protection from Swedish prosecutors who had been trying to arrest him on sex crime charges. Those have since been dropped, but Assange has long feared extradition to the US over Wikileaks’ publication of thousands of government cables leaked by Chelsea Manning.

While the left has largely cheered Assange’s misfortune, journalists like Glenn Greenwald and Matt Taibbi have spoken out in his defense, and warned about the dangerous precedent that Assange’s prosecution could set for all journalists.

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JPMorgan Spots The Next Big Problem: A Plunge In Global Bond Demand

One year ago, just as the Fed had started quantitative tightening, i.e., the shrinkage of its balance sheet, JPMorgan’s Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, author of the populst Flows and Liquidity newsletter predicted that the more than $1 trillion decline in G4 central bank bond purchases in 2018 relative to 2017 would be a key driver for the change in the overall supply/demand balance for government bonds, and result in broadly higher yields across the board. And sure enough, with the 10Y rising from 2.33% one year ago to a multi-year high of 3.24% earlier this month, as government bonds around the globe also saw a material pickup in yields, that prediction has been proven accurate.

Where JPM was wrong was in its estimates for matched pickup in non-central bank demand for government paper, where as Panigirtzoglou admits, he was overly optimistic (more on that shortly). 

So with traders – across all asset classes, including equity, credit and rates, all focusing on what happens to US Treasury yields next, the JPMorgan strategist revisits his previous analysis on global bond demand and supply, incorporating updated supply forecasts both for the balance of 2018 as well as for 2019.

“Given this year has seen the largest increase in excess supply of bonds since 2010, which as we noted last week has together with continued Fed hikes contributed to a tightening in financial conditions that has been reverberating across markets, there has been considerable interest in how next year is shaping up.”

Attention on 2019 is especially acute as the Fed’s balance sheet normalization process is set to accelerate given that it is only in 4Q18 that the monthly cap for the quantity of maturing bonds that are allowed to roll off has reached its steady state of $50Bn/month, which unlike 2018 when QT was just starting, will induce a further increase in net supply that needs to be absorbed by the market of more than $100bn.

It’s not just the Fed: with the ECB set to end its QE purchases in December this year and we see the BoJ continuing its gradual slowdown in bond purchases to ¥30tr in 2019 compared to around ¥40tr this year, JPMorgan notes that this collective shrinkage of the G-4 balance sheet means that the market needs to absorb a further decrease in price-insensitive QE demand of more than $400bn next year.

Here’s the bad news: adding together both the supply and demand side impact, the G4 central bank flow looks set to decline a further $550bn next year.

Which begs the question: will there be an incremental increase in demand to offset this dramatic net increase in supply in the coming year? JPMorgan answer is hardly what bond bulls are looking for…

To answer the key question for interest rates in 2019, here is what JPMorgan sees in terms of potential offsetting sources of demand to this continued change in central bank flow, which has clearly put upward pressure on bond yields in 2018.

Commercial Bank Demand.

This is the biggest source of demand disappointment in 2018. According to Panigirtzoglou, he had expected G4 commercial banks to offset some $500bn of the more than $1tr shift in the central bank flow this year. This was based on an estimate that the $7tr of QE purchases by G4 central banks in the prior five years had seen commercial banks accumulate around $3tr less bonds than they would accumulated if QE had not happened. However, the bank’s latest estimate of G4 bank bond demand for 2018 suggests they offset only around $200bn of the central bank QE flow shift, “or a multiplier of around 0.2 rather than slightly more than 0.4 we had expected”, according to the Flows and Liquidity author.

As the primary reason for this weakness in demand relative to his baseline expectations, the JPM strategist notes the fact that US banks have ceased accumulating excess deposits in 2018 (Figure 2), reducing the need to increase holdings of liquid assets.

Moreover, US banks’ growth in total assets effectively ground to a halt this year for the first time since 2010. Furthermore, US banks appeared to have more than adequate HQLA to absorb some reduction in reserve holdings before needing to accumulate further liquid assets. That said, with front-end Treasuries having cheapened significantly relative to OIS, this has increased their attractiveness for banks to hold as HQLA for regulatory purposes.

Additionally, given the continued decline in the G4 central bank flow, the bank sees G4 commercial banks providing some offset to this decline next year also.

However, given the weakness in this offset this year, we adopt the more modest 0.2x multiplier as a conservative estimate, which  gives us an improvement in commercial bank demand of around $100bn in 2019.

Unfortunately that is not nearly enough to offset the big jump in net supply, which brings us to the second biggest source of potential incremental demand, namely…

Retail bond demand

Here too, and similar to its optimistic commercial bank demand forecast, retail bond demand saw the largest deterioration relative to JPM’s expectations for this year. Following on from last year’s more than $800bn of bond demand, JPMorgan had expected a relatively little changed demand backdrop for this year. But following a very strong inflow in January, bond demand after the equity market correction in Jan/Feb has been very modest and is currently tracking a $320bn annualized pace for 2018.  This pace was as weak as 2015 and over the past 10 years only 2011 and 2013 have seen weaker bond demand numbers. Similar to 2016, the bank expects some recovery in 2019 demand from this year’s weakness, but pencil in a relatively conservative improvement in bond demand of around $80bn, or around halfway towards the average annual bond demand over the past decade of around $480bn.

So with the two traditionally largest sources of bond demand – commercial banks and retail investors – set for further disappointment, that brings us to the third potential “Hail Mary” for bond demand in 2019..

Foreign Official Demand

As we discussed in recent weeks, and in keeping with the demand drift for the above two categories, EM reserve growth has weakened in the second half of the year relative to the $230bn annualized pace that IMF data suggested for the first half. Indeed, JPM’s estimate of EM FX reserve growth in the second half up to end-October – perhaps in part due to the recent plunge in oil prices which have a direct impact on reciprocal demand for Treasuries in the petrodollar recycling pathway – is for a modest reduction of around $15bn, which brings down the annualized pace of reserve growth to $130bn in 2018 or around $100bn lower than last year.

In addition to the impact of oil prices, this decline in reserves has been driven primarily by China, where the PBoC has likely been intervening to smooth the path of CNY depreciation. Given US-China trade tensions are likely to persist into next year and most analysts expect depreciation pressures on the currency to continue, JPMorgan sees little prospect for a meaningful pickup in bond demand from reserve accumulation to offset the decline in G4 central bank demand and project 2019 bond demand unchanged at $130bn.

Pensions Fund Demand

With 3 of the 4 top demand categories set to disappoint, one potential wildcard is pension fund demand. 

First, as JPM notes, it currently only has data for G4 pension fund demand from the various central banks’ flow of funds publications up to 2Q18, which suggests aggregate demand of at a $700bn annualized pace. This is modestly higher than it had expected at the start of the year and reflects in particular strong demand by US pension funds, where the significant improvement in the funded status of private defined benefit pension funds was driven primarily by increases in the interest rates used to discount future liabilities. Indeed, the yield to worst on the Bloomberg US corporate long Aa index rose by just over 80bp during the year up to end-October, and the Milliman data on the 100 largest defined benefit pension plans showed an improvement in the funded status as a result of a decline in the value of liabilities of more than 7% even as asset returns were also modestly negative at -2% as a result of the October correction.

The improvement in the funded ratios creates an incentive for these pension funds to increase allocations to bonds to lock in this improvement. To Panigirtzoglou, this means that demand from pension funds and insurance companies will remain supportive in 2019, although even here the strategist factors in some modest mean reversion from this year’s $700bn annualized pace to around $600bn next year, which is still above the average annual demand over the past 10 years of around $500bn.

Putting it all together…

Consolidating these different influences on global bond demand, including the decline in net purchases by the BoJ and ECB as well as the modest offsets from other bond investors outlined above, JPMorgan now expects a further significant reduction in bond demand next year of around $350 billion. In fact, as shown in the chart below, summing across the five main sources of bond demand suggests that in 2019 consolidated bond demand will be the lowest it has been since 2008, just as the Fed was set to launch QE, and send both interest rates and yields down to record lows.

Meanwhile, on the bond supply side, JPMorgan expects a modest aggregate increase in both DM government and spread product issuance. For US Treasuries, the bank sees around $160bn of increase in net issuance, including the effect of an expanded fiscal deficit as well as the increase in Fed balance sheet normalisation, while for other DM government bonds it sees a modest decrease driven mainly by a reduction in Euro area government bond issuance. On aggregate, JPM expects net global bond supply to increase by approximately $130 billion.

Putting it all together, the combination of a $350bn deterioration in bond demand and a $130bn increase in bond supply leaves Panigirtzoglou concerned about the net deterioration in the bond supply/demand balance of around $480bn in 2019, compared to around $830bn this year.

Some final cautionary observations:

We note that the 2018 deterioration in the balance between bond demand and supply shown in Figure 9 is much higher compared to our projections from a year ago, as at the time we had overestimated the demand of not only retail investors, which was our biggest forecast error, but also of FX reserve managers and commercial banks.

Summing it all up, the largest US bank warns that “the continued deterioration in the bond supply/demand balance we expect for next year looks set to put further upside pressure on yields in 2019.

And since it was the gradual at first, then suddenly sharp spike in US yields that catalyzed the stock market slump in October, that has since affected November returns as well, traders will be especially focused on JPMorgan’s assessment for 2019’s net demand shortfall, because if accurate it would suggest that the only way demand will emerge is if yield reprice materially higher, together with all the adverse side effects for all other risk products.

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