From the Front Lines of Chicago

(As I mentioned in my Anatomy of a Hate Mail post a few days ago, the vast majority of emails I get from Slopers are really nice. Below is a fine example, which I got last night. I received the author’s permission to publish it, with the provision that I remove the person’s name. It is an eye-opening first person account of what’s going on out there…….Tim)

Hi Tim,

I know you’re busy, so I’ll try to keep this short.  I just wanted to say:

1.) You are awesome.  I look forward to reading your posts every single day.

2.) Everything you say about the U.S. economy jibes with my experience as a real estate investor in Chicago.  The vast majority of my tenants are low-income (their rents are mostly subsidized by our fine government), but a couple make a decent living and reside in luxury condos downtown.  Based on what I’ve seen during the past 5 years that I have been doing this, I completely agree that our financial system is totally, utterly screwed.

No matter what their personal situations or how great their intentions are, all my tenants fall short in some way; they either pay late, not enough, or not at all.  And/or they don’t honor their obligations as tenants.  ALL of them.  You would be amazed by how many sob stories I hear on a daily basis.

Please keep in mind that my low-income tenants are not living in ramshackle buildings where they need to huddle in the corner for warmth; no, many live in homes with stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, and whirlpools (this is how investors attract renters in this area these days, after paying close to nothing for the properties themselves).  Mind you, some of these are people pay NOTHING in rent every month. 

They also pay almost nothing for food, utilities, and medical care.  Yet despite having pets, flat screen TVs, cable, and gas-guzzling cars, they somehow can’t afford the $395 move-in fee (I don’t require a security deposit in order to avoid a potential lawsuit, which would result from not following the Chicago Landlord/Tenant Ordinance precisely and which many shark lawyers would happily take on) or light bulbs or mousetraps or batteries for the smoke detectors. 

If they agree to maintain the yard, they expect you to provide a mower.  Signed leases mean nothing to them.  Nothing.  They don’t seem to care who provides the resources which allow them to stay home all day waiting for their government checks to arrive in the mail.  They don’t seem to think about the many, many, many people out there just like them, creating this unbelievably huge, unsustainable economic imbalance.   They have mastered the art of throwing tantrums and threats until they get what they want, and they seem perfectly content contributing nothing more than carbon dioxide and votes for their favorite democratic Presidential candidate on Election Day.  And of course, their favorite democratic Presidential candidate is happy to indulge them.

What I find so alarming is that these folks are multiplying like rabbits. (This is another way to pass their time while waiting for their government checks, which will now be bigger thanks to the imminent arrival of another CO2 producer.)  And that they are so incredibly…big.  They consume way beyond their means, like almost every other red-blooded American.  I personally don’t understand why anyone needs to debate the existence of “bubbles” when he needs to look no further than a rear end nearby (or in a 3-way mirror, as the case may be).  We literally have “ass(et) bubbles” e v e r y w h e r e.  If the U.S. is indeed headed toward another Depression, all I can say is:  the country could sure use a diet.

Oops.  I hadn’t planned on writing for so long or sounding this mean.  I guess I needed to vent.  The stock market is way too high, and I’m grumpy.

Anyway, hats off to you!  I felt compelled to write this after reading one of your posts yesterday (“Anatomy of a Hate Mail”), so I wanted to tell you that your more intelligent customers clearly adore you.  I also thought sharing my perspective may be at least marginally informative, since it’s somewhat unique. {personal information redacted}

{Name Redacted}

P.S. I do realize I enable the system by participating in this entitlement program.  This is one of the reasons why I am tormented.

P.P.S.  To be fair, my tenants are generally good-hearted people.  (That is, when they don’t act like Chucky-like 2 year olds.). If you do post my message, I would like to add that people don’t just spend beyond their means, but they also spend beyond the government’s means.  How the government can possibly justify this kind of spending is beyond me.  Totally bogus.


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/m_9gT65LpSI/story01.htm Tim Knight from Slope of Hope

Administration Enforces Radiosilence On Obamacare Enrollment Numbers

During this morning’s Congressional hearing on the failure of Obamacare, one of the developer’s let slip a little too much truth:

 

 

While the self-proclaimed ‘most transparent’ administration fights off the French and the German over spying ‘lies’, and gags insurers from publicizing how many people have signed up for Obamacare, it seems the cover-up goes even further with everyone involved silenced (for now).

 

 

The CGI’s statement confirms more evidence of the administration hiding the truth as InForum noted recently:

Feds ask Blue Cross Blue Shield not to release exchange numbers

 

The Obama administration asked North Dakota’s largest health insurer not to publicize how many people have signed up for health insurance through a new online exchange, a company official says.

 

During a Monday forum in Fargo for people interested in signing up for coverage via the exchange, James Nichol of Blue Cross Blue Shield of North Dakota told the crowd his company received the request from the federal government earlier Monday. Nichol is a consumer sales manager for the company.

 

Still, a spokeswoman from Blue Cross Blue Shield says about 14 North Dakotans have signed up for coverage since the federal exchange went live Oct. 1. That brings total statewide enrollment to 20 – less than one a day.


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/H9J7nKLZxhM/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Guest Post: Buying Stocks On Margin At The Top – They Never Learn

Submitted by Jim Quinn of The Burning Platform blog,

It’s like the movie Groundhog Day. Greed and hubris are the downfall of the mighty. Believing it is different this time is the mistake of the feeble minded. Watching the ensuing carnage will be a laugh riot. Seeing the blubbering of the bubble headed bimbos, pinhead pundits and Wall Street shysters when the inevitable collapse occurs will be worth the price of admission. If you think we're wrong, pony up to the trough, borrow some money and buy Twitter on IPO day. You can’t lose.

 

 

Of course, "this time is different…"


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/2e4hvMGFgsk/story01.htm Tyler Durden

When "Offshore Drilling" Takes On A Whole New Meaning

Before Hercules Offshore collapsed into bankruptcy, they (like every other company in the USA it would seem, that faces falling revenues) were desperate to cut costs. Unfortunately for the offshore drillers that worked for the firm, Hercules chose to squeeze out the last drops of expense in a ‘different’ way

 

( h/t @Merimack1 )

 

and as a reminder from Monty Python…

 


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/mLvXsNUR8uM/story01.htm Tyler Durden

When “Offshore Drilling” Takes On A Whole New Meaning

Before Hercules Offshore collapsed into bankruptcy, they (like every other company in the USA it would seem, that faces falling revenues) were desperate to cut costs. Unfortunately for the offshore drillers that worked for the firm, Hercules chose to squeeze out the last drops of expense in a ‘different’ way

 

( h/t @Merimack1 )

 

and as a reminder from Monty Python…

 


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/mLvXsNUR8uM/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Amazon In Six Simple Charts

In the new normal, the following six charts (which simply track the transformation of a company from a
viable, if slower growing, cash flow generation model to the godfather
of the dot com 2.0 movement)…

 

… Are enough to generate the following stock reaction:

 

 


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/9RfTvDJnVhE/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Trannies On Best Run In 16 Months As Gold Hits 1-Month Highs

Homebuilders have surged to the best performing sector off the debt-ceiling-debacle lows now (up a stunning 8.3%) despite a mixed bag of performance today with Trannies once again (10th of the last 11 days) surging to new all-time highs (as Oil prices slide further south). This is the best 11-day run (+9.9%) for the Dow Transports since June of last year. Treasury yields rose modestly once again (despite SocGen's threat of moar QE next week) but remain 3-6bps lower on the week. Gold and Silver had another solid day (+2.3% and 3.6% respectively on the week). The USD flatlined (-0.5% on the week) with EUR strength continuing (and CAD and AUD weakness continuing).

 

Homebuilders take over the top spot in the last 10 day's rally exuberance…

 

The Dow Transports just continue to soar…

 

Treasuries continue to limp higher in yield amid very low volumes…

 

Gold and Silver continues to rise – now at one-month highs…

 

Overall the USD was flat but JPY crosses seemed to be the mean-revrting asset of choice today (again…

 

Oil prices continue to collapse…

 

making us wonder – what changed in the summer of 2012? 😉

 

Credit remains far less sanguine (and this afternoon's Fed comments sparked further weakness)…

 

 

 

Charts: Bloomberg


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/DTlM_a8y2KI/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Guest Post: Obamacare Side Effect – Doctors Abandon The Health Care Insurance System Altogether

Submitted by Pater Tenebrarum of Acting-Man blog,

Free Market Alert!

Many medical practitioners have apparently simply had enough. Instead of continuing their never-ending struggle with the welfare state's red tape, they have decided to revert to a free market model without insurance. At first glance that seems to represent a barrier to obtaining medical care for poorer strata of the population. However, a second glance reveals that this might actually not be the case. No doubt to the great dismay of the sick-care cartel and the bureaucracy administering it, the refreshing breeze of the free market suddenly intruding upon the system shows what prices actually would be if the State were not involved in health care. According to a recent report on the spreading 'cash only' medical care phenomenon:

“Fed up with declining payments and rising red tape, a small but growing number of doctors are opting out of the insurance system completely. They’re expecting patients to pony up with cash. Some doctors who have gone that route love it, saying they can spend more time with and provide higher-quality care to their patients. Health advocates are skeptical, worrying that only the wealthy will benefit from this system.

 

In Wichita, Kansas, 32-year old family physician Doug Nunamaker switched to a cash-only basis in 2010 after taking insurance for five years. (“Cash-only” is a loose description. Nunamaker accepts payment by debit or credit card too.)

 

[..]

 

Under the traditional health insurance system, a large staff was required just to navigate all the paperwork, he said. That resulted in high overhead, forcing doctors like Nunamaker to take on more patients to cover costs. Plus, the amount insurance companies were willing to pay for procedures was declining, leading to a vicious cycle. “The paperwork, the hassles, it just got to be overwhelming,” Nunamaker said. “We knew that we had to find a better way to practice.”

 

So Nunamaker and his partner set up a membership-based practice called Atlas M.D. — a nod to free-market champion Ayn Rand’s book Atlas Shrugged. Under the membership plan — also known as “concierge” medicine — each patient pays a flat monthly fee to have unlimited access to the doctors and any service they can provide in the office, such as EKGs or stitches.

 

The fee varies depending on age. For kids, it’s $10 a month. For adults up to age 44, it’s $50 a month. Senior citizens pay $100.

 

The office has negotiated deals for services outside the office. By cutting out the middleman, Nunamaker said he can get a cholesterol test done for $3, versus the $90 the lab company he works with once billed to insurance carriers. An MRI can be had for $400, compared to a typical billed rate of $2,000 or more.

 

[…]

 

Kevin Petersen, a Las Vegas-based general surgeon, stopped taking insurance in 2005. Petersen named the same reasons as Nunamaker: too much paperwork and overhead, declining payments from insurance companies, and a general loss of control. “The insurance industry took over my practice,” he said. “They were telling me what procedures I could do, who I could treat — I basically became their employee.”

 

Now Petersen does hernia operations for $5,000 a pop, which includes anesthesia, operating room time and follow-up visits. He negotiates special rates for the anesthesiologist and the operating room, and is able to provide the service for about a third of what a patient might pay otherwise.

 

Many of his patients are early retirees who are not yet eligible for Medicare but can’t afford a full-fledged health insurance plan, he said, and business is booming. “My practice at this point is the best it’s been in my 26-year career,” he said. “By far.”

 

While the cash-only model may please doctors, some question whether it’s good for middle- and low-income people. Kathleen Stoll, director of health policy at the consumer advocacy group Families U.S.A., didn’t want to speak directly to either Petersen’s or Nunamaker’s practice, as she didn’t know the specifics of each.

 

But in general, she fears that doctors who switch to a cash-only model will drive away the patients who can’t afford a monthly membership fee or thousands of dollars for an operation. “They cherry-pick among their patient population to serve only the wealthier ones,” Stoll said. “It certainly creates a barrier to care.”

(emphasis added)

Obviously, both the named and unnamed 'health advocates' and worriers have it completely wrong. People who don't have to pay thousands of dollars
for health insurance actually can afford 'thousands of dollars for an operation' that costs only one third of what it would otherwise cost. It is not only the wealthy who can afford this free market care (besides, people who don't want it have the option to continue with the existing system).

Look at those prices! A cholesterol test for “$3 instead of $90” – that is more than 96% less! An MRI for $400 instead of “$2,000 or more” (usually will be 'or more')? Not to mention the fact that these doctors now have more time to actually care for their patients properly. What's not to like?

 

A Win-Win By Mistake?

Imagine for a moment what might happen if the government were to get out of healthcare altogether and there would be free competition between all health care service providers. What would happen to prices in that case? It is probably fair to assume that they would come down precipitously even from the low prices free market doctors are already able to obtain for their patients nowadays.

It is actually a good bet that the onerous red tape and the likely explosion in costs due to Obamacare will accelerate the move toward a free market in health care – unless the government explicitly forbids it, that is (unfortunately we cannot rule out completely that such tyrannical steps will eventually be taken – the government generally doesn't like it when its 'help' is refused). 

If so, the Obamacare Act could turn out to become a win-win by mistake so to speak, as more and more people decide to opt out of the system. It seems clear that the free market solution is preferable to the cartelized health care system imposed by government and the lobbyists that have co-written the laws. The doctors portrayed in the article above are leading by example, and we expect their ranks to swell in coming years.


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/d122e29xbQ8/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Did The Fed Just Begin To "Pop" The Credit Bubble?

When Jeremy Stein warned in February of "froth" in the credit markets, it was much discussed but little action'ed. However, today we start to see some actions:

  • *FED SAID TO ISSUE WARNING ON LAX LEVERAGED LOAN UNDERWRITING

With cov-lite issuance at all-time record highs (as we explained here most recently and Moody's tried to ignore), Stein's bubble is even bigger and whether or not the Fed 'tapers' it is clear now by this signal that their concerns over bubbles are growing day by day.

 

Of course, as we warned here, this is Carl iCahn's worst nightmare…

…But we have seen this "credit cycle end, equities ramp" before – in 2007 – where leverage (both firm-wise (debt/EBITDA) and instrument-wise (CDOs)) provided the extra oomph to send stocks higher on the back of credit fueled extrapolation of earnings trends.

(charts: Barclays)

In the end we know this is unsustainable – the question is when (in 2007 it last 10 months or so…).

We already see 30Y Apple bonds trading at 5% yields – admittedly low still but notably higher than when they issued previously. The Verizon deal recently now trades at around 5.7% yield and is considerably worse financially pro forma. Of course, just as in 2007, things change very quickly once collateral chains start to shrink.

Perhaps this is why Carl iCahn said the Apple CFO/CEO shunned him – iCahn's worst nightmare is simply the inability to proxy-LBO each and every firm…

Given these charts – which market do you think is in a bubble – equity or credit? Bear in mind that the Fed's Jeremy Stein has already made his case that the latter is a bubble for sure… and the fragility that reaching for yield creates…

 

and here is Stein's most recent warning…

Stein 20130926 A


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/PU3lsWMoTAA/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Did The Fed Just Begin To “Pop” The Credit Bubble?

When Jeremy Stein warned in February of "froth" in the credit markets, it was much discussed but little action'ed. However, today we start to see some actions:

  • *FED SAID TO ISSUE WARNING ON LAX LEVERAGED LOAN UNDERWRITING

With cov-lite issuance at all-time record highs (as we explained here most recently and Moody's tried to ignore), Stein's bubble is even bigger and whether or not the Fed 'tapers' it is clear now by this signal that their concerns over bubbles are growing day by day.

 

Of course, as we warned here, this is Carl iCahn's worst nightmare…

…But we have seen this "credit cycle end, equities ramp" before – in 2007 – where leverage (both firm-wise (debt/EBITDA) and instrument-wise (CDOs)) provided the extra oomph to send stocks higher on the back of credit fueled extrapolation of earnings trends.

(charts: Barclays)

In the end we know this is unsustainable – the question is when (in 2007 it last 10 months or so…).

We already see 30Y Apple bonds trading at 5% yields – admittedly low still but notably higher than when they issued previously. The Verizon deal recently now trades at around 5.7% yield and is considerably worse financially pro forma. Of course, just as in 2007, things change very quickly once collateral chains start to shrink.

Perhaps this is why Carl iCahn said the Apple CFO/CEO shunned him – iCahn's worst nightmare is simply the inability to proxy-LBO each and every firm…

Given these charts – which market do you think is in a bubble – equity or credit? Bear in mind that the Fed's Jeremy Stein has already made his case that the latter is a bubble for sure… and the fragility that reaching for yield creates…

 

and here is Stein's most recent warning…

Stein 20130926 A


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/PU3lsWMoTAA/story01.htm Tyler Durden