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With overnight weakness in data sparking hype that moar stimulus is coming, and therefore juicing demand for oil, crude prices spurted above $34.50 this morning (after the NYMEX close banging yesterday). However, the last few minutes have seen the machine slam WTI back into the red after Putin said he would ask Russian oil producers if they will freeze production (at record levels).

• *PUTIN ASKS OIL COS IF THEY’RE WILLING TO FREEZE 2016 OUTPUT
• *PUTIN: RUSSIA IN TOUCH W/ OTHER PRODUCERS ON MKT STABILIZATION
• *PUTIN SAYS GLOBAL OIL MKT PRESSURED BY SPECULATORS

We presume the market was pricing in this as a done deal…

 

Or simply did the math that freezing production at record levels in a world beset by slumping growth is not a positive.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1ngga7G Tyler Durden

Well, Super Tuesday is upon us and we’re about to find out whether Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton will run the table on rivals and lock up their respective party nominations.

“About half of the delegates needed for a Republican candidate to win the nomination are at stake, plus about a third for Democrats,” Bloomberg notes. “In roughly a dozen state races, Republican front-runner Donald Trump and Democratic leader Hillary Clinton seem poised to win in landslides that could render them nearly inevitable.”

In other words, this is it for Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, and the incomparable Bernie Sanders. Either they pull off a miracle today or we’re about to witness a billionaire reality TV host square off against a former Secretary of State who is being investigated by the FBI with the keys to The White House on the line.

It’s not winner-take-all, delegate wise, on the GOP side, so conceivably, Rubio and Cruz could “win” even if they lose (so to speak), but the outlook isn’t good on the Republican side if your name isn’t Donald Trump.

Bloomberg is out with a preview of six separate predictions for today’s polls. You can read the full breakdown here, but the following two tables do a nice job of summarizing the outlook:

Meanwhile, a new CNN/ORC poll suggests that both Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders would beat Trump handily in the national election. “In the scenario that appears most likely to emerge from the primary contests, Clinton tops Trump 52% to 44% among registered voters,” CNN says. “That result has tilted in Clinton’s favor since the last CNN/ORC Poll on the match-up in January.”

According to the poll, Clinton faces a tougher battle against Cruz or Rubio. In fact, in a head-to-head battle, Rubio or Cruz would win, according to the same poll.

Frankly, we’re incredulous. The idea that Clinton would lose to Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio but would beat Trump handily seems dubious at best given what we’ve seen in New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. Cruz is flagging and Rubio, although polished, comes across as nervous and inexperienced under fire. Trump is.. well.. just Trump. Nothing sticks in the way of criticism. 

“Nearly 600 delegates are up for grabs on Super Tuesday — the most for any day of the 2016 primary season,” WaPo notes. “The bulk of them come from seven Southern contests, including the day’s biggest prize: Texas.” Here’s the visual breakdown:

And here’s a look ahead:

“Voters’ choices broken out by party provide an interesting window into areas where Trump might hold cross-party appeal,” CNN says. “Though the share of leaned Republicans choosing Clinton on any of the tested issues tops out at 8% on health care, Trump is the most trusted for 15% of leaned Democrats on terrorism, 14% on the economy and 13% on immigration.”

Still, there’s significant push back against the GOP frontrunner. Indeed, some say many Republicans would vote for Hillary rather than watch Trump steamroll his way into the White House. But according to some polls, it’s far too close to call:

Of course after Tuesday, the argument will no longer be relegated to the realm of the hypothetical. 

If things go as planned today, we’re going to get to watch the Hillary versus Trump battle play out in real life, which will inevitably provide all types of entertainment value. And if that’s not a good enough reason to root for the billionaire and the former First Lady on Super Tuesday, we don’t know what is.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1L2dtSZ Tyler Durden

It has been nearly six years since Zero Hedge proudly began collaborating with Nanex and Eric Hunsader (recall first from June 2010: “How HFT Quote Stuffing Caused The Market Crash Of May 6, And Threatens To Destroy The Entire Market At Any Moment“) who has been one of the most vocal critics of everything this website has also stood against: rigged, manipulated markets, and corrupt and captured regulators and government officials.

Over those years we have posted hundreds of examples using Nanex data which have demonstrated without any doubt instances of one-time or wholesale manipulation, involving virtually every asset class, from stocks, to bonds, to oil, to nat gas, and of course gold, having exposed numerous spoofers and manipulators in the process.

Nanex’s and Hunsader’s persistence in exposing market manipulation won it numerous “tin foil hat” jeers from participants (many of whom criminals themselves) of the very same rigged industry which he had set out to expose.

Which is why we are delighted to report that after many years, Nanex has finally been vindicated, and is the first whistleblower eligible under the Dodd-Drank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act of 2010 meant “to reward an independent third party for analysis of a potential securities law violation.”

His reward: $750,000.

The actual SEC announcement actually took place some six weeks ago, in an SEC press release in which it announced that the “SEC Awards Whistleblower More Than $700,000 for Detailed Analysis” however at the time the SEC did not disclose the individual receiving the award:

The Securities and Exchange Commission today announced a whistleblower award of more than $700,000 to a company outsider who conducted a detailed analysis that led to a successful SEC enforcement action.

 

“The voluntary submission of high-quality analysis by industry experts can be every bit as valuable as first-hand knowledge of wrongdoing by company insiders,” said Andrew Ceresney, Director of the SEC’s Enforcement Division.  “We will continue to leverage all forms of information and analysis we receive from whistleblowers to help better detect and prosecute federal securities law violations.”

 

Sean X. McKessy, Chief of the SEC’s Office of the Whistleblower, added, “This award demonstrates the Commission’s commitment to awarding those who voluntarily provide independent analysis as well as independent knowledge of securities law violations to the agency.  We welcome analytical information from those with in-depth market knowledge and experience that may provide the springboard for an investigation.”

The full reward, according to Francine McKenna amounts to $750,000 and it is being awarded to Hunsader for his exposure of violations that led to a $5 million fine for the New York Stock Exchange in 2012. As McKenna reports, “Hunsader showed MarketWatch a letter from the SEC that confirmed the approval of his award and told MarketWatch he was the recipient of a pending award for the tip that led to the NYSE fine. By law, the SEC does not publicly identify the whistleblower’s name or the company that was subject to the order. The notice to Hunsader on Monday also said the time period for all other potential claimants to appeal the SEC decision on the same issue had expired.”

Hunsader noted he gave the information to the SEC and published it on his site before a whistleblower award rule was even in effect.

 

“The office wasn’t even set up but the Dodd-Frank law passed the day before. I gave it to them on July 22 and the whistleblower office opened up a year later,” he said.

 

He also said he told the NYSE directly, but they told him he was not a member.

 

A spokeswoman from the New York Stock Exchange declined to comment on whether Hunsader brought the issue to them first.

As MarketWatch adds, Hunsader has some advice to would-be whistleblowers, especially other outsiders trying to tell regulators about an issue based on their own original analysis.

“It doesn’t matter if an algorithm is ripping off the market, for example, you have to prove intent. You better be absolutely sure you can prove intent. The SEC had a good piece of evidence to go confidently to the NYSE ,” said Hunsader. “You could not refute it. It only took three charts. I told them, ‘There’s nothing more you need from me.’”

Hunsader also praised Markopolos, who unsuccessfully tried to report the activities of Bernie Madoff to the SEC.

When asked what he’ll do with the windfall, he laughed out loud. “I have four daughters! It’s going towards college tuition, of course.”

As for his side of the story, Hunsader has a blog post recapping his original work which led to the award, titled simply “Vindicated.”

* * *

Our sincere congratulations to Hunsader for this well-deserved recognition of his ongoing fight against the Goliaths of a market so rigged that only a wholesale crash and reset can ever restore it to some semblance of normalcy and fairness.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1TOqO3Q Tyler Durden

With analysts calling NatGas's glut even bigger than crude's, the following 'chart' has just become the scariest in the world for the energy complex. As Bloomberg warns, if you live in the eastern U.S., it’s almost time to put that snow shovel away and get out the gardening tools, as March temperatures are expected to be considerably higher than expected across the entire US (except Florida, sorry).

As Bloomberg continues, after a slight hiccup later this week — which could bring a little sleet and even a few snowflakes — the warmth that has dried out the West Coast and drought-stricken California during most of February will shift east.

Temperatures may reach 8 degrees Fahrenheit (4 Celsius) above normal by mid-month from the Midwest to the Atlantic, and even higher across the Great Lakes and parts of Ontario and Quebec, said Commodity Weather Group LLC in Bethesda, Maryland.

 

“The pattern is going to change,” said Rob Carolan, owner of Hometown Forecast Services Inc. in Nashua, New Hampshire.

March is expected to be considerably hotter than expected everywhere (except Florida)

New York City could see 64 next week, according to MDA Weather Services in Gaithersburg, Maryland. Boston may make the 60s, too, along with Cincinnati, Chicago and Minneapolis. Washington, Philadelphia and St. Louis might reach the 70s, MDA said.

That’s enough to put a garden stake through the heart of winter. Not that winter has had much of a bite, especially along the East Coast. New York’s Central Park had 11 days above 50 in February and four at 60 or better. While the snowfall total is higher than normal for the season, it was 5.2 inches (13 centimeters) below average since Feb. 1, according to the National Weather Service.

Almost all of New York’s snow, 26.6 inches out of 31.2, came from a Jan. 23 storm.

The rest of the Northeast has done pretty well this season, too, unless you like to ski.

“Boston is closing in on at least its second-mildest winter on record,” Carolan said.

Which explains why Nattie is plumbinmg new record lows…

 

As this morning's hope crashes…

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1Ltzfih Tyler Durden

After attempting a valeant, pardon the poor pun, Leap Day surge to close green for the month, a bout of late day selling resulted in the S&P500 closing just red for the month following a dramatically turbulent January, a continuation of the disappointing post Fed hike price action; indeed as noted earlier for global equities, February was the 4th consecutive month in which stocks declined and in many cases continued their presence in bear market territory.

So while many assets failed to work, some did. Below we present the full breakdown of the best and worst performing assets of both February and 2016 YTD in local currency terms and in USD terms.

Here is DB’s Jim Reid with the full breakdown:

Having been through one of the worst Januarys in the post-Lehman era, February offered some stability in selected asset classes although for most parts risky assets in DM are still down on the month. Oil was largely flat in February and has been mostly trading inside the $30-$35/bbl range for the past month. That perhaps gave the EM complex some breathing space with the likes of Bovespa and EM bonds actually up on the month. Against the backdrop of lower DM equities, February was again another positive month for core rates whilst credit total returns were mostly flat to small down with weakness led by higher-beta parts of the market. Net net year to date performances are still negative for most key risk benchmarks while core rates and precious metals are some of the standout performers to date.

Taking a closer look at the month and starting with equities, the DAX and Stoxx 600 were 2-3% lower on a total returns basis whereas the S&P 500 finished the month basically unchanged. In EM, the MSCI EM equity benchmark is also flat on the month. Chinese equities was down almost 2% in February (after a late month reversal) which was still relatively speaking a much better showing versus the 23% decline in January.

The Shanghai Composite remains one of the biggest YTD underperformer in our selected sample of global asset classes.

In terms of fixed income, Treasuries, Gilts and Bunds were up around 1.0-1.5% in Feb which takes their total returns to date to low-to-mid single digits. Impressive given the low starting yield. Credit performance is somewhat more mixed but generally total returns for higher quality segments benefitted from the rates rally.

In Commodities Gold (+11%), Sugar (+11%) and Silver (+5%) were the top performers. In currencies JPY rallied nearly 8% against the Dollar on the back of safe-haven flows but generally the Dollar index is 1.4% lower on the month. Please refer to the PDF for our usual table and charts.

Below are the best performing assets in local currency…

… and USD terms.

 

And the same for 2016 YTD local currency:

And rebased into US Dollars.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1Ltzh9Q Tyler Durden

From decoupled American to deteriorating China, PMIs (and plenty of other data) is rapidly descending into the ugly reality that every mainstream economist is in denial about. Of course, this terrible news is terrific news for stocks (moar stimulus) but it is Gold that appears to be benefitting most as the inevitability of the next extreme monetary policy makeover looms ever closer…

 

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1UwiRzE Tyler Durden

Gold Rose Another 10% In February – Best Month Since January 2012

Gold bullion rose 10.1% in February adding to the 7% gains seen in January. This means that gold is the best performing asset this year, up 17% so far in 2016. Silver is the next best performing asset with an 8% gain year to date, followed by US Treasuries (30 Year Bond) which have gained 7.8% so far in 2016.

Comparatively, the S&P 500 index is down 4.7% this year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 4.5% and the NASDAQ is down 7.8%. International indices have also seen losses with the FTSE down 2.6%, the DAX down 10.7% and the Nikkei down 13.7% (see table below).

Market Performance in February – Finviz.com

Gold is again acting as a hedge for investors and pension owners exactly when they need a hedge.

The biggest influence going forward for gold is “likely to be risk appetite and concerns about markets and the global economy,” Mark O’Byrne, research director at GoldCore told Marketwatch.

“If stock markets begin to recover and make gains and risk appetite returns, then gold could come under selling pressure,” he said. “However, we believe the volatility seen in the first two months is likely to continue.”

Read more on Marketwatch here

 

‘7 Real Risks To Your Gold Ownership’ – Must Read New Gold Ownership Guide Here

 

LBMA Gold Prices
01 Mar: USD 1,240.00, EUR 1,141.70 and GBP 886.09 per ounce
29 Feb: USD 1,234.15, EUR 1,131.46 and GBP 890.95 per ounce
26 Feb: USD 1,231.00, EUR 1117.58 and GBP 878.87 per ounce
25 Feb: USD 1,235.40, EUR 1,121.41 and GBP 887.10 per ounce
24 Feb: USD 1,232.25, EUR 1,122.33 and GBP 885.52 per ounce

Gold and Silver News and Commentary
– Gold scores for biggest monthly gain in four years – Marketwatch
– Gold extends gains on safe-haven bids, fund inflows – Reuters
– Gold prices gain strongly in Asia after weak China PMI reading – Investing
– Gold Assets in World’s Top ETP Reach Highest Since September – Bloomerg
– Barclays shares drop 6% after £1.9bn loss and divi cut – FT

– Eurozone Slides Back Into Deflation – Telegraph
– Socialism has created a humanitarian disaster in Venezuela – City AM
– Gold Glows As Stocks Suffer Longest Losing Streak Since 2011 – Zero Hedge
– Patiently Climbing Aboard New Gold Bull – AU Report
– Wall Street Gold Buying Binge Continues – GLD back to 25M ozs – GoldSeek

Read more here

by Mark O’Byrne

www.Goldcore.com  

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1QjQxxt GoldCore

With Super Tuesday upon us, it appears no matter what the establishment throws at Donald Trump, nothing seems to stick and reduce his core support's enthusiasm. Many on 'the other side' are unable to comprehend this support and so Indianapolis residents Jon and Elsa Sands wrote to The FT to explain why they are voting for Trump…

Sir, My wife and I are affluent Americans with postgraduate degrees. We are socially liberal and fiscally mildly conservative. We are not the sans-culottes you see as the prototypical Trump voter. We are well aware of his vulgarity and nous deficiency yet we contemplate voting for him. Why?

 

Electing the standard-bearer of the Democratic Party seems purposeless. The neanderthal Republicans barely respected the legitimacy of Bill Clinton’s or Barack Obama’s election, let alone that of Hillary who would arrive tainted with scandal and the email lapses hanging over her head. We would get four years of gridlock and “hearings”.

 

The Republican tribunes, Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, are backward, foolish and inexperienced. John Kasich, a moderate with extensive governmental experience and a willingness to compromise, is an also-ran.

 

That leaves The Donald, really a moderate in wolf’s garb, who would owe nothing to either party and might strike deals, for instance on tax reform.

 

Yes, we could be like the good citizens who voted for a "tameable" Hitler in 1933 to get things back on track. But the alternatives look worse.

Simply put, as Liberty Blitzkrieg's Mike Krieger summed up:

Trump is the protest vote against ever-bigger government and the failure of Summers/Keynesian policies

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1UwiTHC Tyler Durden