Exploring the Outcomes of Mexico’s Soda Tax: New at Reason

Boing Mexico has become the most obese country in the world. In a purported effort to combat the problem, the country implemented a one-peso-per-liter excise tax on sugar-sweetened beverages in January 2014.

That tax, supporters claim, is working. Studies are showing a reduction in consumption of the taxed drinks.

But there’s a problem, Baylen Linnekin notes. There’s little evidence that people are consuming fewer calories and becoming less obese. Instead, they’re consuming other food and drinks not affected by the taxes.

View this article.

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Local Cops Consider Not Showing Them Your Drivers License a “Very Real…Threat” to the People

Absurdly pants-wetting local news report from KREM Channel 2 in Washington state touching on the “sovereign citizens” movement, or “free travelers” as this story labels them.

These are people who believe, for a variety of arcane reasons, that most government authority as currently constituted is phony and does not lawfully require obedience, with a side element being that one should be free to drive a motor vehicle without being licensed by the state. (The Libertarian Party’s 2004 candidate Michael Badnarik shared this belief in freedom of movement minus state-issued licenses.)

There have been instances, rare ones, in which (usually police initiated) encounters between the law and a sovereign citizen believer turn violent, but this story doesn’t say anything about that.

No, it is entirely based on the alleged threat to police and public caused by people merely non-violently refusing to comply with a demand to see a license:

When a deputy tried to pull over a man in Spokane Valley near Argonne and Mission, he refused to give the deputy his name and claimed he did not need a driver’s license……

In 2012, two men claiming to be sovereign citizens caused a three-hour standoff with law enforcement when they refused to get out of their truck after being pulled over. The SWAT team and even Sheriff Knezovich himself were called in, and deputies eventually had to cut their seat belts and pull them out of the vehicle.

“These can be very dangerous confrontations,” Knezovich said.

It is an issue law enforcement said they are keeping a close eye on because they said the threat these people pose is a very real one.

Now, there may be some larger reason to officers to feel threatened by “sovereign citizens”. Some think so. Jesse Walker reported last year on the (not very warranted, on balance) law enforcement panic over the sovereign citizen movement in a Homeland Security report. As Walker concluded:

The document declares on its first page that most sovereign citizens are nonviolent, and that it will focus only on the violent fringe within a fringe—the people it calls “sovereign citizen extremists,” or SCEs. It describes their violence as “sporadic,” and it does not expect its rate to rise, predicting instead that the violence will stay “at the same sporadic level” in 2015. The author or authors add that most of the violence consists of “unplanned, reactive” clashes with police officers, not preplanned attacks.

But this story doesn’t even try to begin to make the case, quite literally explaining that the very act of refusing to show a drivers license or get out of one’s car when ordered is a “very real….threat.”

It may be to an officers’ tinpot authority. But as to why any local news watching citizen should be worried about it, the case isn’t really made.

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Why Do GOP Detractors Insist That Donald Trump Is Only Popular Among Dumb, Poor Whites?

You know the rap against Donald Trump, right? He’s playing to the anger of relatively poor and relatively dumb (read: uneducated) white hicks who are political neophytes. As National Review‘s Reihan Salam puts it in a column at Slate, “Trump is strongest not in the metropolitan corners of America, where he’s spent most of his life. Rather, his strongholds are the mostly overlooked sections of the South, Appalachia, and the rural and semi-rural North.”

That’s a comforting myth for Republican activists because they can then pretend that Trump doesn’t really represent their party even as he scores yuge wins in primaries of “moderate” states such as New Hampshire.

But as Elizabeth Price Foley points out at Instapundit, it’s just not true. The plain fact is that Trump is crushing his GOP competition across all demographics. 

I’m not sure what makes Salam think that Americans of “Scots-Irish” descent are poor Appalachian hillbillies with substance abuse problems. This odd racial stereotyping aside, Salam is simply wrong that Trump’s primary support emerges from poor, uneducated whites, an unsupportable myth I’ve written about before that keeps getting repeated by the GOPe and Democrats alike.

More importantly, I hardly think that a platform of issues that are important to all Americans–national security, jobs, immigration (all of which are intimately related)–is fairly characterized as a racial dog whistle, unless one believes that these issues are particularly “white” (or more specifically, “Scots-Irish”) issues.

Read more here.

Consider these exit polls from New Hampshire, where Trump smoked his nearest opponent, John Kasich, by close to 20 points. He won both genders, all age groups, all income levels, and all educational levels.

More exit summaries here.

Polls taken last year show that while Trump is particularly strong among less-educated voters, he stacks up very well against opponents across all ideologies and when it comes to education levels, too. From an Los Angeles Times account in December:

About one-third of Republican voters who have a high school education or less back Trump, which puts him far ahead of Ben Carson, the retired neurosurgeon, who is in second place with that group, at 17%. Ted Cruz at 9%, Sen. Marcio Rubio of Florida at 7% and Bush at 6% round out the top five.

But among those with a college degree or more, Trump’s lead is much smaller. He has 21% of the voters in that group, compared with 19% for Carson, 13% for Rubio, 9% for Cruz and 6% for Bush.

Got that: He’s more popular among Republicans who went to college than any of the other guys, too. Just not as popular as he is among high-school grads.

Coming out of Iowa, Trump also did well with college grads (he grabbed 22 percent of them to Ted Cruz’s 26 percent) and post-grads (20 percent to 23 percent).

More here.

I understand why educated and cosmopolitan Republicans are freaked out by Trump: He’s eating the party’s lunch at this point.

And he is crass, vulgar, and generally unthinking. The things he says about women such as Megyn Kelly and Carly Fiorina, the way he reveled in Ted Cruz being called a pussy, how he thinks of Mexicans—these are all deeply embarrassing to anyone with any sense of shame or decency. His policies, such as they are, are stupid and embarrassing, revolving mostly around statements of self-aggrandizement and obsessions with masculinity, greatness, weakness, and an ability to bend people to his will.

And yet, the sooner that finely mannered Republicans admit that he pretty perfectly matches their longstanding anxieties and aspirations, the sooner they might either learn to live with him as their presidential nominee or radically alter the party they think he is somehow stealing from them. But to pretend that Trump is not representative of the GOP or has no constituency among coastal, urban elites? Yeah, dream on.

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Good Ted Cruz Ad, Bad Ted Cruz Ad, Gilmore Goes Away: P.M. Links

  • |||Ted Cruz ad attacks Hillary Clinton, parodies infamous Office Space scene.
  • Less amusing Ted Cruz ad news: He pulled one that inadvertently featured a pornographic actress. How’s that for political correctness run amok?
  • Gov. Jim Gilmore is out of the GOP presidential race. This news did not merit a full story.
  • Safety tips promote rape.
  • Why doesn’t Fox host Democratic debates and MSBC host GOP debates?
  • Hillary Clinton hires one of UVA Jackie’s most earnest believers.

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How the D.C. Government Is Targeting Its Homeless Population

Street Sense EventThe struggles faced by the homeless don’t get much attention in D.C. on a daily basis, but they remain persistent and grossly mishandled by those we’ve entrusted with power. At advocacy group Street Sense’s “Over-Criminalization of Homelessness” event Thursday night at The Church of the Epiphany, I heard stories of police abuse, encampment eviction, and other examples of urban policy that make things harder on the city’s most vulnerable.

“Criminalization efforts in D.C. are less overt [than in other cities] but becoming more insidious,” began Ann Marie Staudenmaier, an attorney at the Washington Legal Clinic for the Homeless. Regulations here prohibit panhandling at public transit stations, she explained, while “temporary abode laws” give public officials a high degree of discretion to evict the homeless from public encampments.

Although panhandling is clearly a First Amendment issue, for libertarians with a high degree of respect for property rights, the campsite evictions may, to some degree, seem philosophically justifiable. But D.C. officials have drawn scrutiny as of late for going against their own protocol and clearing out encampments during hypothermia season, which runs from November to March. City protocol says to wait until winter is over so as to mitigate homeless deaths during these months. Nonetheless, earlier this winter, the city went ahead with destroying a Rock Creek Park encampment.

D.C. government protocol also states that if a public encampment is to be cleared, officials must give 15 days of notice and must not confiscate items of value. Such items include IDs, medicine, and tents. But mystifyingly, city officials seized and destroyed all that property and more from the Rock Creek site, leaving residents without even their few possessions.

EventAttendees of the Street Sense event who have themselves experienced homelessness added that shelters are often hotbeds of theft and violence, and that many impose unnecessarily restrictive policies—like requiring people to stay within the shelter from sundown until sunrise, thus limiting their ability to do meaningful things with their time. Some audience members noted this had prevented them from attaining jobs, thus trapping them in dependence.

Add in open container laws, which disproportionately hurt those without a dwelling place to retreat to, and the degree to which even a minor criminal record can restrict an individual’s employment and housing eligibility, and you have an unsettling portrait of government overreach that leads to near-constant persecution of the already down-and-out.

Homelessness issues are rarely talked about in libertarian circles, which is not just a shame but a missed opportunity. In fact, the burden of government overreach and the criminalization of relatively harmless acts fall hardest on those in society with the least resources available to them.

But libertarians can take heart: Street Sense and other like-minded groups (including Samaritan Inns and Friendship Place) have become impressive examples of private actors making strides toward ending homelessness and addressing the needs of the indigent. Organizations like these are proof that committed citizens are frequently better able to solve intransigent social problems, even as government itself too often makes life harder for the least among us.

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Mexicans for Trump? “It’s a New Mundo.”

Can Donald Trump, who kicked off his campaign for president last June by calling Mexicans rapists and drug dealers, win over Latinos—especially Mexicans?

Sure, why not, writes Ruben Navarette, Jr. at The Daily Beast:

The relationship between U.S.-born Latinos and Latino immigrants, and even between foreign-born Latinos who have been naturalized and Latino immigrants, is complicated to say the least. There is an ambivalence there.

As a Mexican-American, I can tell you that many Mexican-Americans think that Mexican immigrants who come to the United States illegally are taking advantage—of a porous border, of the social-services safety net, of loopholes in immigration law, and of an insatiable appetite among U.S. employers for cheap and dependable labor. And they’re not wrong about that.

Navarette says you’ll find Latinos, especially Mexicans, for Trump in “red states like Texas and Arizona, and the battleground state of Colorado. There’s a lot they like about Trump, including his independence, plainspokenness, success in business, and disdain for political correctness. They see him as strong and resolute, and not having to cater to moneyed interests since he is self-funding his campaign. And either they don’t buy the idea that he is anti-Mexican, or they don’t care.”

More here.

Navarette points to a poll in January that found 

Donald Trump is the favorite among Latino Republicans, according to new polling results revealed to The Post.

Thirty eight percent favor Trump, followed by Cuban American Ted Cruz (15 percent), Jeb Bush (14 percent) and Cuban American Marco Rubio (8 percent), according to the national poll conducted by the Beck Research for the American Federation for Children.

Of course, it’s true that there aren’t all that many “Latino Republicans” in the country. Running candidates such as Mitt Romney, who pushed for self-deportation by illegal Mexicans during the 2012 election, will do that to a party. So will constantly talking about building walls on the U.S. border with Mexico, tripling the Border Patrol, stepping up immigration laws, and the like.

But it’s also true that as any broadly or even narrowly defined ethnic group gets exponentially larger (as Latinos are), they will spread out over the political and ideological spectrum. And at some point, the GOP will acknowledge demographic shifts that will force them to at least reach out to Hispanics even if the party doesn’t change any of its positions. The GOP risks going down the tubes nationally if it relies solely on the white vote, which is shrinking as a percentage of the overall total. As Karl Rove has noted, this is not impossible. Greg Abbott won 50 percent of the Latino vote while running for governor of Texas and George W. Bush and Rick Perry cracked the 40 percent margin in various of their state-wide elections. 

Here’s relevant data from Pew Research on the topic:

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Trump Threatens Suit Against Cruz, but Don’t Have Sympathy for the Senator

Donald Trump, portrait of toughness and courage:

The above is the latest in a series of tweets complaining about people being mean to him by campaigning against him. He asks why Cruz can call himself an evangelical Christian when “he lies so much and is dishonest?”

He is being a bit whiny, but it turns out he does have a point. This Twitter attack is in response to an attack from Cruz in South Carolina claiming that Trump and Sen. Marco Rubio have the same position as President Barack Obama on gay marriage.

According to Politico, the basis for this claim is that Trump and Rubio have both acknowledged that the Supreme Court ruling is the “law of the land,” a thing which is, you know, factually accurate. It is not an indication that Rubio and Trump support same-sex marriage recognition. They do not. Both of them have indicated they want to appoint Supreme Court justices that would overturn last year’s decision that mandated states recognize gay marriages.

So it’s one of those situations where Trump is being a typical classless jerk, but he’s not wrong. Cruz’s attack is fundamentally dishonest. When politicians pull nonsense like this, it makes it harder to paint Trump as lying or exaggerating or saying whatever gets support, doesn’t it?

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Stephen King’s Latest Television Adaptation Thrills, Despite Its Dumb Politics: New at Reason

"11.22.63"11/22/63, Stephen King’s novel, in which a time traveler stalks Lee Harvey Oswald through history in an attempt to prevent the Kennedy assassination, is a wonderful and maddening read. It is King’s storytelling at its bravura best, a detective tale in which the hero must not only penetrate a complex mystery but do so while tip-toeing through the paradoxes of time travel.

But it is also the most dramatic exposure of his inchoate politics and infantile Baby Boomer obsessions. The belief that Kennedy’s assassination precluded an early end to the Vietnam war, the idée fixe of his time-traveling vigilante, is Camelot mythology at its silliest: Kennedy was a Cold War liberal who pledged at his inaugural to “pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship, support any friend, oppose any foe to assure the survival and the success of liberty.” Less than three weeks before his own assassination, Kennedy fulfilled his promise by okaying a military coup that ended in the death of South Vietnamese President Ngo Dinh Diem, who in Kennedy’s eyes was not prosecuting the war with sufficient vigor.

Like the book, critic Glenn Garvin explains, 11.22.63 is extraordinary entertainment if you’re able to shrug off the political idiocies that broadly shape it and simply immerse yourself in the story.

View this article.

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Why Republican Party Delegate Rules Might Cause Them Convention Trouble

A wade into the weeds of Republican Party delegate assignment rules, by former Reagan staffer Donald Devine over at American Conservative, which have changed in important ways since 2016, are leading some to wonder if the Party isn’t creating a very strong possibility that the Party will enter the convention with no clear winner.

The core of the potential problem:

The Southern Super Tuesday primaries and the other Southern contests before March 15 are required for the first time to award their primary delegates by proportional representation where each candidate wins only the percentage of delegates he receives from the popular vote, rather than the first-place candidate winning all delegates. That method guarantees no candidate will be able to build a commanding lead until after March 15 when winner-take-all nomination contests become possible.

Southern states made a bargain of sorts with the Party and the nation: they were willing to make their results actual impact in delegate assignment smaller in order to make themselves seem more relevant by occurring earlier in the process before everything seemed like a done deal. 

This leads Devine to strongly suspect, in a world where neither Trump nor Cruz or any other non-Trump is able to start a true sweep of delegate numbers, that this might lead to a contested convention this summer, with no clear winner going in. But:

Republican party chairman Reince Priebus is confident that there will be no contested convention. He recently told Time magazine: “I know the rules pretty well, I’m pretty confident in how delegates are allocated, I helped write a lot of the rules and I believe that clarity will come very soon” as to who will win the nomination. The current plethora of candidates “doesn’t mean that, by the end of March or mid-April, the end of April, that it isn’t going to be very clear. There’s only so much money to go around, there’s only so long everyone can keep fighting.” He claimed he was prepared for a contested convention but based on his expertise did not expect one, “so it’s not like I need some sort of expert help to understand our own governing rules or how our convention might run.”

Devine thinks it looks likely that at least three or more somewhat appealing candidates can stay in the game through the Spring or perhaps beyond.

Another change, aimed at making sure Ron Paul or future Ron Paul types could carry no weight on the convention floor, states that no candidate who does not command a plurality of the delegations of eight states or more can even have their man officially placed in nomination or have his vote counted, which could disenfranchise a lot of delegates whose guys or gals don’t win enough states.

These leads old Party hand Morton Blackwell, who hates the new rules, to posit this potential conundrum for the GOP come convention time:

Assume that Candidate A wins 38% of the delegate votes at the national convention, then that Candidate B wins 39% of the delegate votes, and that candidates C, D, E, F, and G among them win the remaining 23% of the delegate votes.  With many states binding their delegate votes proportionally to their presidential primary votes, this could happen.

Assume also that none of the five candidates whose numbers made up that 23% of the convention votes won the majority of delegate votes in at least eight states.  That would be likely.

Then assume that a big majority of the Delegates whose votes were bound to Candidates C, D, E, F, and G would vote for Candidate A on a second ballot. That couldn’t happen because there wouldn’t be a second ballot.  Under the current rules, the votes for Candidates C, D, E, F, and G wouldn’t be counted. Candidate B would receive the presidential nomination with the votes of only 39% of the duly elected Delegates, although a majority of the total number of Delegates preferred Candidate A over Candidate B.

Will the Party powers care if that happens? Probably not much. But lots of potential Republican voters who feel disenfranchised just might. 

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The Size of Government Question

How big should government be? That was the gist of the very first question at last night’s Democratic presidential debate. The question, posed to Bernie Sanders, noted that spending by the federal government is already equal to about 21 percent of the economy. How much bigger would it be in a Sanders administration?

Sanders, you may not be surprised to discover, did not directly answer the question. Instead, he simply insisted, as he has so many times before, that government has a responsibility to do much more than it is doing right now, on health care, education, infrastructure, jobs, and more. After a follow-up from the moderator, he briefly acknowledged that there should be some sort of limit on the size of government, but did not even attempt to suggest what that limit should be. Instead, he reiterated his belief that the government has a responsibility to do much more than it is doing now.

Sanders’ response was a dodge, and a telling one for a candidate whose plans for the federal government are so ambitious. But he was onto something anyway. Because the way he answered the question was essentially to reframe it, not as a question about the size of government, but about its role.

This is the hidden debate in American politics today, the big question that is rarely discussed directly but arguably lies at the foundation of nearly every major policy and political debate. What is the purpose of government? What is it essential nature and character, its mission statement? What are its essential duties and functions?

The question Sanders actually answered was not, “How big should the government be?” but “What should the government do?” This is a question worth dwelling on, and one for which neither party has a particularly good answer.  

For Sanders, the answer is just about everything, or pretty close. He acknowledges, when pushed, that government should have limits, but he cannot articulate where those limits might because he cannot really imagine any arena where government might not have some role. That’s not to say that Sanders, who has worried darkly about the threats posed by too many styles of deodorant and sneakers even as children starve, has a plan for government to everything right now, but it is difficult for him to imagine any area where government might not ever need to intervene at some point.

Later in the debate, when asked about what parts of government he might cut, he initially could not name anything except a vague reference to “waste.” In what department? In what program? Sanders didn’t say, and it didn’t appear to be a question he’d given much thought to over the year. A moment later, he interjected to say he favors unspecified cuts at the Department of Defense, where he is sure there is excess spending and duplicative effort of some kind, but even here he had nothing specific. His view of government’s role is both practically unbounded almost undefined: It’s job, potentially, is to do anything and everything he thinks should be done.

For Sanders’ opponent in the Democratic presidential race, Hillary Clinton, the answer is somewhat different. Her follow-up to Sanders on the size of government question was instructive: Sanders’ plans would grow the size of government by about 40 percent, she said, but the main problem with his plans is that they aren’t practical. “Every progressive economist who has analyzed [Sanders’ health care plan] says that the numbers don’t add up, and that’s a promise that cannot be kept,” she said. The problem with his plan, for her, isn’t that the government would be too big or doing too much or going beyond its mandate, but that it wouldn’t work.

Clinton’s view, in other words, is that the government should do everything it’s doing now, whatever that is, plus a little bit more. She seems to view herself as a caretaker and manager, nurturing government as it exists today, and growing it somewhat, here and there. Her response on the what would you cut question was that she’d streamline some training and education programs, and “take a hard look at every part of the federal government and really do the kind of analysis” needed to see what might not be necessary anymore, which is another way of saying she’d make no significant cuts. This is a view of government bounded only by practical and political considerations. There are things government cannot do, at least right now, but nothing, really, that it simply should not do. There’s no mission statement either, no real idea about government’s specific place and purpose—no sense of what exactly it is for.

This sort of fuzziness about government’s purpose is perhaps an occupational hazard for politicians of the left, where active government is a default assumption, but in different forms it is evident on the right as well. The Republican presidential field is united in the belief that taxes should be lower, but have far less to say about the sorts of program cuts and reforms that would be necessary to account for the reductions in tax revenues that would certainly result even under optimistic dynamic scoring scenarios. Similarly, too many GOP policy reforms are merely focused on making existing programs leaner or more efficient rather than on fitting them into a larger government schema. There is nothing wrong, of course, with saying that “government should take in less revenue and be more efficient,” but it is not a vision of what government should be, and most Republicans do not really seem to have one, or at least not one they can explain.

This inability to clearly articulate a rationale for government’s existence, to explain what sort of business it is in, is responsible for much of the confusion and frustration on both the left and right, and for much of the sprawl, complexity, and inefficiency in government today. We have Republicans whose idea of government is lower taxes and better management, and Democrats whose idea of government is higher taxes and more programs—perhaps a few more, perhaps a lot more—and maybe better management too. And this is why it is so hard for both sides to answer questions about the proper size of government: Neither side really has a clear sense of what it should do and what it should be.

There’s a lesson here for reformers of all stripes, but especially for those who, like me, would prefer to see a smaller, more restrained government: It’s not enough to talk about what to cut and what to shrink; it’s important to talk about what government should be doing, and how to ensure that it does it well. Give government a purpose and a mission—a clear, positive, and limited mission—and get enough people on board, and the size will right itself.

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