“Imminent Collapse”: Oregon’s Pot Glut Drives Prices Even Lower

Approximately three years after Oregon lawmakers signed a recreational cannabis law, the state is now experiencing a massive glut in its marijuana supply, collapsing prices and putting dozens of the industry’s licensed growers and retailers on borderline bankruptcy.

For the second year in a row, cannabis farmers harvested more than 2.5 million pounds of pot in October. Of that, the so-called wet harvest, 1.3 million in usable marijuana was logged into the Oregon Liquor Control Commission’s cannabis tracking system as of December.

The state of about 4 million people harvested a half pound of marijuana per every resident, which raises concern that there are too many growers. According to government data, there are 1,107 licensed active producers and another 900 producers seeking licenses from the Oregon Liquor Control Commission (OLCC).

While there is no cap on the number of licenses issued by the state, the OLCC placed a temporary freeze on new applications in the second half of 2018. 

Cannabis farmers statewide reduced the amount they planted, while some did not plant at all, and others surrendered their licenses, said Don Morse, a Portland, cannabis consultant. In the first week of 2019, 70 grower licenses expired, and 57 grower licenses were surrendered, according to OLCC data.

“Everyone is concerned about this,” said Adam Smith, Craft Cannabis Alliance executive director.

“You’ll see people going out of business in the spring when it’s planting time. There are far too many in the industry in distress. No one is making money here.”

Beau Whitney, senior economist and vice president of New Frontier Data, a cannabis market research firm, said there would be more pain in the legal cannabis industry this year.

“Because of the federal illegality, there is not a balance between suppliers and demand,” Whitney said. “If it was an open market and it was legal throughout the United States, there would be demand and prices would stabilize.”

“Last year we saw prices plunge up to 50 percent,” Whitney said. “This year prices could drop by 35-50 percent more.”

“There is no short-term fix for this,” he said. “You have a lot of supply in the system, and it will take a while for it to flow through the system.”

With an abundance of pot, The Bulletin indicates that Oregon’s cannabis market is limited to sales within the state’s borders.

According to the Statesman Journal, in 2019, Oregon lawmakers have proposed legislation that would be the first significant step towards legalizing interstate exports of pot, a possible solution to the oversupply conditions.  

While legalizing interstate exporting of pot could be years away, expect in the near term, a possible imminent collapse of small producers throughout Oregon. It seems like the pot bubble has already started to deflate. 

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We Don’t Need Neoliberalism – We Already Have Liberalism

Authored by Ryan McMaken via The Mises Institute,

In recent years, an entire literature has sprung up over the various uses of the word “neoliberalism.” As many have already pointed out, it is largely used as a term of derision by doctrinaire leftists against both moderate leftists and advocates for free markets.

Those who use the term in a pejorative way (which is nearly everyone) blame neoliberalism for all the world’s poverty and inequality. Most of the time, neoliberal simply means “capitalist,” although to varying degrees, depending on the pundit. For example, in a new interview with economics writer Steven Pearlstein, neoliberalism is apparently a type of hard-core libertarianism, and nothing less than “a radical free market ideology.”

But neoliberalism isn’t just held by a mere few eccentrics. Neoliberals include nearly everyone to the right of Bernie Sanders, including Donald TrumpBill ClintonTony Blair, Theresa May, Rand Paul, and Emmanuel Macron.

We’re Neoliberal, and Proud?

Given its sinister undertones, few actually use the term to describe themselves. Nevertheless, there has been an unfortunate trend in recent months in which organizations and writers claiming to support freedom and free-markets have begun self-identifying as “neoliberal.”

This likely is borne out of the fact that many who use the term neoliberal are harsh critics of markets. They don’t like capitalism, and they’d like to see less of it. They want to see more socialism and more social democracy. And soon.

Given this, some conclude that, if those people hate neoliberalism it can’t be a bad thing.

Thus, we see articles like this one, titled “Actually, ‘Neoliberalism’ Is Awesome” written by a staff member of the free-market Mercatus Center. More famously, there was an article titled “Coming Out as Neoliberals” published by the Adam Smith Institute in which the author, Sam Bowman, encouraged everyone who’s more or less in favor of property rights to self-identify as “neoliberal.”

Other copycat articles followed, such as one written by Jordan Williams of the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union.

The gist of all of these is this: “Are you a decent human being who supports freedom and opposes tax rates that are too high? Well, my friend, you’re a neoliberal!”

This attitude is a mistake for three reasons.

One: “Neoliberalism” Is Too Vague a Term

Both Hillary Clinton and Ron Paul have been described as neoliberals by critics of neoliberalism — as have both Tony Blair and Donald Trump. But if your ideological terminology includes all of these people in the same category, your terminology isn’t very useful.

Yes, it’s true that in the mind of a die-hard Leninist, both Clinton and Paul would be considered members of a decadent bourgeoisie, devoted to capitalist imperialism.

Similarly, since neither Bill Clinton nor Ron Paul support Venezuela-like economic policies, they are both denounced as neoliberals by the hard-left advocates for “equality.”

In reality, of course, many so-called neoliberals differ so completely on the particulars of policy, that to put them together in the same category is next to useless. If the definition of neoliberal is little more than “not a communist” then we need to look elsewhere for a better term.

Two: “Liberalism” (Without the “Neo”) Is Better

While Americans — and too a lesser extent, Canadians — are often confused about the meaning of the term “liberal,” many of the world’s educated people are still acquainted with both the term and the ideological movement it describes.

In most of the world, liberalism has always been the ideology we continue to associate with the American Revolutionaries, the free-trade, anti-war Manchester school, and the French liberals like Frédéric Bastiat. It was also, of course, the ideology of the Austrian free-market economists like Ludwig von Mises and Carl Menger.

Historian Ralph Raico has defined this movement as such:

“Classical liberalism” is the term used to designate the ideology advocating private property, an unhampered market economy, the rule of law, constitutional guarantees of freedom of religion and of the press, and international peace based on free trade. Up until around 1900, this ideology was generally known simply as liberalism.

The movement, in a recognizable form we might call “libertarianism” goes back at least as far as the Levellers of 17th century England. That movement was instrumental in introducing many of the political rights that were then outlined in the US Declaration of Independence and the Bill of Rights.

This same ideological tradition also influenced liberals in France, Switzerland, England, and even Poland. The free-market, free-trade, free-migration reforms that swept across Europe in the 19th-century were a product of a rapidly liberalizing Europe.

As with so many other ideological, movements, of course, liberalism has waxed and waned in influence. But it has never totally disappeared, in part because it is so successful at bringing economic prosperity wherever it is tried.

Although many today confuse liberalism with various types of conservatism, liberalism has always been distinct in that it has viewed individuals and civil society as capable of thriving without requiring a class of government-created and government-sustained elites.

Liberals oppose societies that are shaped, planned, guided, or coerced from above. They believe, in other words, in spontaneous order that grows out of countless, decentralized groups of households, individuals, businesses, and communities. While conservatism (like most authoritarian ideologies) takes the view that people are naturally lacking in the ability to govern themselves — and thus require “leadership” from politicians — liberals believe that people can be left alone to live their lives in peace. In this view, the only people who require coercion are violent criminals.

Three: Neoliberalism Is Often the Opposite of Liberalism

And yet, bizarrely, modern-day liberals are being saddled with the epithet of “neoliberal” although neoliberalism embraces so much of what liberalism rejects.

After all, we are told that organizations like the European Union, the World Bank, and the World Trade Organization all are part and parcel of the “radical free market ideology” — to use Pearlstein’s term — that is neoliberalism.

In truth, these institutions most closely associated with neoliberalism — which also include central banks like the Federal Reserve — stand in stark contrast to the laissez-faire world envisioned by the free-market liberals.

All of these global “neoliberal” organizations depend either on tax revenues, or on government-granted monopolies. They rely on various types of government meddling, manipulation, and coercion to accomplish their missions.

This stands in stark contrast to everything that liberals have stood for.

Indeed, Ludwig von Mises opposed organizations like these in his day, precisely because they were illiberal. as David Gordon notes:

For Mises, schemes for international organization were intended only as means to promote the free market. When Mises realized that in the statist climate of the day, these plans could not work, he for the most part abandoned them. In Omnipotent Government, e.g., he says: “Under present conditions an international body for foreign trade planning would be an assembly of the delegates of governments attached to the ideas of hyper-protectionism. It is an illusion to assume that such an authority would be in a position to contribute anything genuine or lasting to the promotion of foreign trade.”

Mises also devoted a sizable portion of his career to opposing central banks and central banking.

For critics of neoliberalism to now claim that neoliberalism is the ideology of radical laissez-faire, and that Mises was himself a neoliberal — as has been often claimed — ignores what the real ideology of laissez-faire has always been. Neoliberalism is really just a throwback to the mercantilism of old, in which government-controlled monopolies push state-sponsored agendas on everyone else. In other words, neoliberalism is exactly the thing liberalism has always attempted to destroy. 

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Watch Live: President Trump Addresses Nation’s Border Security (& Dems Respond)

With furloughed federal workers struggling to pay their bills and mortgages as the partial government shutdown started before the holidays is about to enter its 18th day – the second-longest on record – many will be watching with anxious anticipation as President Trump takes to the podium during a trip to the Southern border where he is expected to give a major policy speech about his plans for border security and his promised wall.

Following a meeting between Trump and a group of reporters earlier in the day, several media organizations reported that Trump isn’t planning to declare a national emergency – as he first threatened to do during a press conference on Friday – though Trump aides later backtracked and made clear that the president hasn’t explicitly closed to the door on this option.

According to CNN, Trump is planning to use the speech to make his case to the nation about his reasons for wanting to build the border wall. But when it comes to whether Trump will declare a state of emergency Tuesday night that would allow him to bypass Congress and start construction on the wall, the president is the only person who knows for certain.

As the Hill reported, Trump’s aides have been “coy” about the president’s plans.

“He is not giving a likelihood. He is not saying yes or no. But he’s made very clear to you and the public last week that he is considering it,” White House counselor Kellyanne Conway told reporters after the lunch ended.

Even if Trump doesn’t declare a national emergency on Tuesday, many Democrats expect it will happen soon after given that negotiations are still deadlocked and it would be a convenient exit ramp allowing Trump to end the partial shutdown while still being able to claim he’s working toward the wall.

“That could be the exit ramp that would enable him to say, ‘look, I’m still 100 percent in favor of the wall. We’re going to build it, but we’re just going to use a different method. Therefore, I don’t need Congress, therefore we don’t need the shutdown,'” Sen. Angus King (I-Maine), who caucuses with Democrats, said Tuesday on NPR.

Though some have questioned the legality of using a national emergency for such a purpose, Trump and a Democratic House committee chairman have affirmed that it’s within the president’s authority.

Though, as No. 2 House Dem Steny Hoyer said, deciding to declare an emergency to build the wall will almost certainly provoke a legal challenge.

“It is analogous to governments that we have seen all over the world declaring martial law, and justifying them in doing whatever they wanted to do to whomever they wanted to do it, whenever they wanted to do it,” said House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.)

[…]

“There is no crisis, there is no invasion, there is no clear and present danger as the president would try to convey to the American people – to scare them and to justify actions otherwise not justified,” he said.

All of the major news networks have agreed to carry Trump’s speech live, and after Democratic leaders demanded that they be given equal time for a rebuttal, most have agreed to carry that as well.

The president is slated to begin speaking at 9 pm ET (though, if history is any guide, his remarks will probably start some time after). NBC News has published a live feed where viewers can watch Trump’s speech and the Democratic rebuttal, which is expected to begin immediately afterward.

Looking ahead to Wednesday, Trump will reportedly meet with a group of 8 Congressional leaders in the afternoon, according to CNN.

* * *

Feeling burnt out from all this shutdown-related political brinksmanship and looking to zone out with some totally a-political content?

Well, Stormy Daniels will be folding her laundry in her underwear on Instagram live starting at 9 pm ET.

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Does $97,000 Matter To You?

Authored by John Coumarianos via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

The S&P 500, including dividends, has produced a meager 4.86% annualized return for the 19-year period since 2000. That return has beaten inflation, but I call it meager because it’s not the 10% or so that many stock brokers, financial advisors, and market historians have taught much of the public to expect for such a long period of time. The return is way below the market’s long term average, even if our starting point is a bit arbitrary and convenient (the start of the technology stock meltdown).

But there is another lesson from the past 19 years besides subpar annualized returns. Those returns are radically bifurcated or back-loaded. In other words, they have accumulated recently or in the second half of the nearly two-decade period, not the first. And that means people in the age range of, say, 45-55, who have been investing by contributing steadily to work-sponsored savings plans like 401(k)s and 403(b)s for the past couple of decades, have been the beneficiaries of an amazing sequence of returns. It also means they may be unprepared for a less beneficial sequence in the future.

A way to illustrate this point is to compare a $95,000 lump sum investment in the S&P 500 TR Index in 2000 to a series of 19 $5,000 annual investments from 2000 through 2018. Amazingly, the final dollar value of the periodic investments nearly equals the dollar value of the initial large lump sum.

If the compounding is steady a large lump sum should outstrip periodic contributions because only a few of the contributions are getting the benefit of compounding for a long time. Only if the compounding is completely lop-sided, with positive returns occurring overwhelmingly in later years (which is what has happened), should these investments be nearly at the same dollar level. Another way of saying this is that, assuming reasonably even compounding, you should always want to invest a large lump sum immediately rather than dribble money into an investment over time. But the sequence of compounding over the last two decades has been anything but even or steady.

Volatility doesn’t matter for a one-time, lump sum investment. It makes no difference to the final amount when, over the investment period, the returns arrive; the annualized return will tell you what you have at the end. But when you get the returns matters a lot in cases of periodic contributions or withdrawals. When you’re saving periodically, you want the big returns, if possible, after you’ve accumulated some money. And you’d like to get the inevitable bad years out of the way in the beginning of a periodic saving or investment period when you don’t have a lot invested. That’s exactly how it’s worked out for middle aged people today who have been lucky enough to work steadily and earn enough to save periodically for the past two decades. The bad years came early when very little was at stake, and the good years came much later when much more was at stake.

To illustrate the importance of sequence of returns further, the chart below repeats the first chart with an additional line showing contributions made in reverse chronological order (2018-2000). Clearly, getting the big returns in the beginning, and poor returns at the end of a contribution period matters a lot for the final result. In the reverse chronological order scenario, the amount of final savings decreased roughly $97,000 (or 43%), from around $221,000 to around $124,000.

If investors were also able to ramp up their savings in the second decade, when returns were much higher, that’s worked out even worse for them in the reverse chronological scenario and better for them in the chronological scenario. Of course, it could also work out badly in the future if the larger contributions are buying stocks that, in retrospect, look like they might have been overpriced. Time will tell.

Last, it’s likely that those doing periodic investing haven’t realized how lucky they are in taking their lumps early and reaping benefits later. The poor overall or annualized return of the market over the full 19 years is less apparent to them. It also might not be apparent to them how quickly their luck can change, and that losses would matter a lot now that they have much more money saved. The poor returns of their early investing years could re-materialize, and that would be much worse for them now than it was when they first started saving money.

Target date funds might provide some protection to middle-aged investors in that they are surely less allocated to stocks for someone who’s 45, 50, or 55 than they were when the person was 25 or 30. But are they as conservative as they should be given today’s valuations, which the boffo returns of the past decade have produced?

Many financial pundits and advisors say you should just try to control the things you can. As an investor, that means the rate of savings, fees, and little else. You can’t know what your sequence of returns might be, according to the conventional advice. Sometimes you’ll get lucky, and sometimes you won’t; either way, just keep investing in an allocation driven by age and distance to retirement. Maybe that’s true in the end, but if you’re not wondering about how lucky the past long sequence has been for middle-aged savers and whether the next one will be as favorable to them, now that they have more at stake than they did 15-20 years ago, you might not be thinking hard enough. Even if you make no moves in your portfolio or investment strategy, you should probably be girding yourself emotionally for a less benign environment.

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Aussie Building Permits Plunge After Prices Plummet Most In 35 Years

Aussie dollar dropped and popped in early trading after building approvals plunged 9.1% MoM to a 32.8% YoY drop – the biggest decline since Jan 2009 (and dramatically below expectations).

This devastating indictment of the economy down under comes after aussie house prices tumbled at the fastest rate in 35 years, increasing the likelihood of a disorderly market correction and economic recession, according to global investment bank Morgan Stanley.

As AFR’s Duncan Hughes reports, in the last three months of 2018 Sydney property prices fell by 15 per cent on an annualised basis, followed by Melbourne’s 12 per cent,with big falls posted in other major capitals.

“With entrenched weakness across all aspects of the market, 2019 looks unlikely to hold an improvement,” warns Daniel Blake and his team of Morgan Stanley analysis.

“Focus is now on the broader economic impact of the ongoing correction. Further details continue to suggest a sustained deterioration in conditions, with few signs of a turnaround,” the report warns.

House prices slid another 1.3 per cent in December, the largest monthly correction since 1983, and falling property prices and weakening consumer sentiment are expected to have knock-on effects across the economy, particularly in the struggling motor industry and retail sector.

“We expect the wealth effects we have already seen on high value items, such as car sales, to exert themselves on broader consumption spending over 2019, as households focus on deleveraging in an environment of declining asset prices, elevated debt levels and still low wage and income growth,” the analysis warns.

All of which fits with the ominous warnings from OECD last month:

Australia’s housing market is a source of vulnerabilities due to elevated prices and related household debt. A direct hit to the financial sector from a wave of mortgage defaults is unlikely,” the report says.

“However, if house prices collapse consumer spending could suffer, via negative impact on wealth, including from exposures to bank shares, which would encourage deleveraging. Together with reduced housing-related expenditures, this would put pressure on the whole economy.”

The Paris-based global forum recommends the Aussie Reserve Bank begin raising the cash rate from its record low as soon as possible to prevent “imbalances accumulating further”.

Notably, OECD’s ominous warnings come after RBA deputy governor Guy Debelle raised alarms (after Q3 GDP dramatically undershot expectations at just 2.8%) by suggesting the next move in rates could be down, not up, and floated the possibility of controversial money printing policies known as quantitative easing in the event of a crisis.

As John Rubino recently noted, for the past few years, homeowners just about everywhere have been able to finesse life’s problems by thinking “at least my house is going up.”… But now that’s ending, and reverse wealth effect is kicking in. Homeowners are seeing their home equity – aka their net worth – stop growing and in some cases drop by shocking amounts. In Australia it’s $1,000 a week, which is enough to darken the mood of pretty much anyone not in the 1%. A consumer with a dark mood is an unenthusiastic shopper because new debt accelerates the decline in net worth.

As home prices fall, so therefore does “discretionary” spending. Australians will continue to eat and to air condition their bedrooms, but they’ll cut way back on vacations, new cars, etc. And the debt-based part of the economy will suffer. This will cause stock prices to fall, knocking another leg out from under the average citizen’s net worth and making them even less likely to splurge. And so on.

Credit-bubble capitalism depends on mood, which makes it fragile. That fragility is about to be on full display pretty much everywhere.

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Ron Paul: ‘We Don’t Need A Border Wall If Trump Removes Incentives For Illegal Immigrants’

Former Congressman and libertarian icon Ron Paul has some advice for President Trump.

Instead of building a wall along the southern border to keep out illegal immigrants, maybe he should instead try removing the incentives that attract them to the US in the first place – incentives like a relatively easy path to citizenship and easy access to welfare benefits.

After Paul said the shutdown “isn’t significant in the scheme of things,” Paul’s interviewer, Squawk Box’s Andrew Ross Sorkin, asked if he supported Trump’s border wall, Paul responded that he “doesn’t like walls” (though he didn’t say outright that he opposes Trump’s plans).

“I don’t like walls. I’m a libertarian I don’t want to wall people in and wall people out.”

“I don’t want free, open borders either,” he continued.

“I think you have to remove the incentives for people to come. They come because there’s a welfare system here, there’s easy access to citizenship its politicized one group wants them here because they think they can get the votes.”

Paul said he understands this dynamic thanks to his experience working as a doctor near the border.

“I’m an OBGYN doctor close to the border. People would pop in they’d have a baby then the next day they’d be at the courthouse signing up for welfare benefits.”

When asked whether he and his son, Sen. Rand Paul, had discussed this difference in opinion, Paul said that though they talk often, his son doesn’t feel like he needs to run all of his political positions by him first.

Watch a clip from the interview below:

Former US Rep. Ron Paul: Border wall unnecessary if US ends incentives from CNBC.

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Students Hate ‘Trump’ Immigration, Border-Wall Quotes… Don’t Realize They’re From Dems

Authored by Cabot Phillips via Campus Reform,

This month, the federal government entered a partial shutdown after Congress was unable to reach a budget agreement, primarily on funding for President Donald Trump’s proposed wall along the southern border.

The wall, a key talking point for Trump throughout the campaign, has been decried by leaders in the Democrat party as anti-American and immoral, among other things.

But their opposition to the wall and embrace of looser immigration laws seems to be a new development. 

In recent years, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, President Barack Obama, and Secretary Hillary Clinton have all stated the danger in embracing illegal immigration and ignoring the laws we have on the books.

Such quotes include:

“Illegal Immigration is wrong, plain and simple. Until the American people are convinced we will stop future flows of illegal immigration, we will make no progress.” -Senator Chuck Schumer, 2009

“We simply cannot allow people to pour into the United States undetected, undocumented and unchecked” -Barack Obama, 2005

“I voted numerous times… to spend money to build a barrier to try to prevent illegal immigrants from coming in. And I do think you have to control your borders.” -Hillary Clinton, 2008

Wanting to know if opponents of Trump’s border wall had opinions on these past quotes from Democrat leaders, Campus Reform‘s Cabot Phillips headed to American University.

But there’s a catch… the students were told the quotes actually came from President Trump.

Upon hearing the quotes, students said Trump’s words were “dehumanizing,” “problematic,” and “jingoist.”

“I just really think it’s hateful speech,” one student said, while another added, “the way he’s referring to people across the wall is dehumanizing.”

One student said the comments held racist undertones, claiming “there are racial biases deeply embedded in there.”

But this was all before they knew these quotes were actually coming from political idols of theirs. 

Watch the full video to see their reactions to being told Democrats actually the statements. 

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Feds Find 23 Guns In Office Of Indicted Chicago Democrat

A longtime Chicago alderman and staunch gun-control advocate who was arrested on federal corruption charges stemming from an attempt to use his position to extort a company hoping to renovate a fast food restaurant in his ward was found to have 23 firearms in his offices, according to a local CBS affiliate.

Edward Burke, who has for decades been one of the city’s most powerful and most notoriously corrupt officials, reportedly relied on a city ordinance stemming from the 1870s that designated all Aldermen as “peace officers” allowing them to carry and store weapons in their offices and city buildings – where even those with a concealed carry permit are not allowed to carry them.

Burke

According to CBS, federal prosecutors didn’t reveal whether the guns found in November were hidden at Burke’s ward office or at his office in City Hall, but, as they pointed out “it’s hard to miss the irony of a staunch gun control advocate having to turn over 23 guns as a condition of his bond.”

From banning cellphone cases shaped like guns to supporting laws that ban concealed weapons in places that serve alcohol, Burke has a record as a staunch gun control supporter.

From outlawing cell phone cases shaped like guns to bans on concealed weapons in places that serve alcohol and broadening the gun offender registry in Chicago, Ald. Ed Burke’s aldermanic record has defined him as an ardent supporter of gun control.

That’s why many people did a double take when federal prosecutors announced that investigators had found nearly two dozen guns not in his home but in his offices.

And a sources tells CBS 2 the weapons were at least at one time on display in cases at his office at City Hall.

Public records show that Burke, a former cop, has been a licensed private detective and a licensed private security contractors since the 1980s. He carries a valid “Firearms Control Card”.

A federal criminal complaint unsealed last week charged Burke with attempted extortion for allegedly using his position as alderman to direct business to his private law firm from a company seeking to renovate a fast-food restaurant in his ward.

If convicted, he could face up to 20 years in prison.

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Is Venezuela’s Downward Spiral OPEC’s Achilles Heel Or Saving Grace?

Authored by Julianne Geiger via Oilprice.com,

OPEC and US Shale have been duking it out in the oil markets for a few years now – ever since the days of $100 oil. OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, took up a campaign to flood the market with oil to drown out the rising stars of the US Shale world. But that $100 oil came at a price, and the glut sunk prices to uber lows that hurt every oil producer in the world – some more than others.

Venezuela was no exception to feeling hurt. Its state oil company, PDVSA—or shall we say the Hugo Chavez administration’s personal piggy bank—was already reeling from corruption, and was busy fighting with foreign oil firms who were operating in country and subsequently booted out. The country had no money to invest in its cash cow to keep it running. President Nicolas Maduro–who took office when oil producers were for the most part fat, dumb, and happy—inherited along with PDVSA a country that was in crisis, with some even saying back then that it was on “the verge of an economic breakdown”, with Moody’s tallying a public sector deficit of 15 percent of its GDP. And when oil prices started to tank, Venezuela’s dire economic situation became direr.

Years ago, Venezuela was an instrumental member of OPEC, with Chavez reestablishing Venezuela’s seat at the OPEC table. Today, Venezuela is still an active member, with Maduro serving as one of the loudest cheerleaders of the original OPEC production cut deal solidified in late 2016 after his desperate-but-successful whirlwind tour designed to save its country from ruin with the increased oil revenues that would likely come from such a deal. Maduro visited all the who’s who in the OPEC oil world, including Iran, Qatar, and OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia.

At that time, Maduro claimed to have a formula that would stabilize oil prices for ten years. That concept, now squarely in the rearview mirror, is clearly viewed as both tragic and laughable, given the recent price swings.

Despite Maduro’s ten-year plan being clearly dead in the water, OPEC was still able to pull off a production cut deal that managed to lift prices for a time. In fact, the plan was so successful, that combined with a few geopolitical events between Iran and the United States and China and the United States, and Libya, Nigeria, and Venezuela’s unintentional production outages, OPEC conspired to lift production mid-2018.  Some would say this is in part attributed to Maduro’s salesmanship.

Coming full circle, the market is once again facing falling oil prices along with another planned production cut from the cartel. Venezuela, who did manage to benefit somewhat from the original production cut deal in 2017, is producing fewer and fewer barrels of oil on a monthly basis, ending 2018 with a daily production level that is near 30-year lows for the Latin American country. And no one is holding onto hope that Venezuela’s oil production will rebound—that is, no one but Venezuela.

With Venezuela’s production sure to continue its downward spiral, OPEC is bound to catch a break on the production cuts. OPEC agreed to cut 800,000 bpd this time around, and Venezuela will likely eat away at some of that 800,000 bpd, without even trying. This takes some of the heat off other OPEC members who may find it difficult to curb production yet again.

On the surface, this indicates that Venezuela’s OPEC membership is paying off for OPEC. It has been instrumental in getting OPEC members on board to reduce production, and it is cutting its own barrels produced in great numbers, even if not on purpose, allowing other members, such as Iraq, to overproduce without hurting OPEC’s overall compliance.

However, OPEC is a cartel, and that cartel’s purpose is to “coordinate and unify the petroleum policies of its Member Countries and ensure the stabilization of oil markets in order to secure an efficient, economic, and regular supply of petroleum to consumers, a steady income to producers, and a fair return on capital for those investing in the petroleum industry.”

Unfortunately for OPEC, Venezuela’s economic and political situation is so bleak that it has almost no control over its own oil production. It cannot ramp up production. It cannot export more. It has failed to secure this “regular supply of petroleum to [its] consumers” as OPEC’s mission statement calls for. In fact, Venezuela has begged, borrowed, and stolen—literally—to keep PDVSA afloat, and still it sinks.

Part of OPEC’s claim to fame is that it has the clout to move oil prices up or down, by moving production up or down—and Venezuela can no longer participate in that activity. OPEC’s clout has waned thanks to the rise of US shale, but also due to what some are seeing as OPEC’s almost-maxed production capacity. Surely Venezuela’s production capacity is maxed, and surely that max will continue to decrease. As Venezuela’s production capacity dwindles, so does OPEC’s, which is likely why Russia and a few extras have been brought into the OPEC fold.

In the short term, Venezuela helps OPEC to meet some immediate production cut goals. In the long term, however, Venezuela will likely remain a drain on OPEC’s overall capacity, as it is unable to contribute in any meaningful way to the cartel that relies on production manipulation to swing prices.

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Tired Of Trump? Then Try Watching Stormy Daniels Fold Laundry In Her Underwear

Are you too exhausted with shutdown-related partisan bickering to watch President Trump’s speech from the southern border Tuesday night? Well, lucky for you, Stormy Daniels is taking a break from raising the money needed to pay back the legal fees she owes the president to offer some counter-programming (and maybe drum up some more publicity for her book).

Daniels

Beginning at 9 pm ET, Daniels will be folding laundry in her underwear on Instagram Live.

Tune in – if you dare.

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