Wall Street’s Corruption Runs Deeper Than You Can Fathom

Authored by Robert Scheer via TruthDig.com,

Of the myriad policy decisions that have brought us to our current precipice, from the signing of the North Atlantic Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) to the invasion of Iraq and the gerrymandering of House districts across the country, few have proven as consequential as the demise of Glass-Steagall. Signed into law as the U.S.A. Banking Act of 1933, the legislation had been crucial to safeguarding the financial industry in the wake of the Great Depression. But with its repeal in 1999, the barriers separating commercial and investment banking collapsed, creating the preconditions for an economic crisis from whose shadow we have yet to emerge.

Carmen Segarra might have predicted as much.

As an employee at the Federal Reserve in 2011, three years after the dissolution of Lehman Brothers, she witnessed the results of this deregulation firsthand. In her new book, “Noncompliant: A Lone Whistleblower Exposes the Giants of Wall Street,” she chronicles the recklessness of institutions like Goldman Sachs and the stunning lengths the United States government went to to accommodate them, even as they authored one of the worst crashes in our nation’s history.

“They didn’t want to hear what I had to say,” she tells Robert Scheer in the latest installment of “Scheer Intelligence.”

“And so I think what we have in terms of this story is really not just a failure of the banks and the regulators, but also a failure of our prosecutors. I mean, a lot of the statutes that could be used—criminal statutes, even, that could be used to hold these executives accountable are not being used, and they have not expired; we could have prosecutors holding these people accountable.”

Segarra also explains why she decided to blow the whistle on the Fed, and what she ultimately hopes to accomplish by telling her story. 

“I don’t like to let the bad guys win,” she says.

“I’d rather go down swinging. So for me, I saw it as an opportunity to do my civic duty and rebuild my life. … I was very lucky to be blessed by so many people who I shared the story to, especially lawyers who were so concerned about what I was reporting, who thought that the Federal Reserve was above this, who thought that the government would not fail us after the financial crisis, and who were livid.”

“Noncompliant” explores one of the darkest chapters in modern American history, but with a crook and unabashed narcissist occupying the Oval Office, its lessons are proving remarkably timely.

“We live in a culture where we reward bad behavior, we worship bad behavior, and it’s something that needs to stop,” she cautions.

“Changing the regulatory culture on [a] U.S. governmental level is something that’s going to take a decade, maybe two. And we need to start now, before things get worse.”

Listen to Segarra’s interview with Scheer or read a transcript of their conversation below:

Robert Scheer: Hi, I’m Robert Scheer, and this is another edition of “Scheer Intelligence,” where the intelligence comes from my guests. Today, Carmen Segarra. She’s written a book, just came out, called “Noncompliant: A Lone Whistleblower Exposes the Giants of Wall Street.” And boy, did she ever. Perhaps you remember this case; it was in 2011, two, three years into the Great Recession. There was a lot of pressure from Congress that these banks be regulated in a more serious way. As a result, Carmen Segarra, someone of considerable education, was brought in. And she was assigned to do a survey of Goldman Sachs, to go over to Goldman Sachs. And I just want to preface this, people have to understand that not only is the Federal Reserve an incredibly—the most important economic institution in the United States, but the New York Federal Reserve plays a special role being in New York. And they are basically entrusted with regulating the banks, and they are the institution that most definitely failed in that task, and helped bring about the Great Recession. Would you agree with that assessment?

Carmen Segarra: Yes, I would agree with that assessment. When I joined the Federal Reserve, as you pointed out, I was hired from outside the regulatory world, but within the legal and compliance banking world, to help fix its problems. And I was well aware of the problems that existed. And scoping the problems itself was relatively easy; I mean, within days of arriving, I had participated in meetings where you had Goldman Sachs executives, you know, lying, doublespeaking, and misrepresenting to regulatory agencies without fear of repercussions. And where I saw Federal Reserve regulators actively working to suppress and expunge from the record evidence of wrongdoing that could be used by regulatory agencies, prosecutors, and even the Federal Reserve itself to hold Goldman Sachs accountable. The question was, when I arrived, you know, are these problems fixable? And, spoiler alert: I don’t think so.

RS: Well, your book really is a compelling read on, really, what one could consider the dark culture of finance capital. Most of us know very little about it; we think it’s boring, it’s detailed and so forth. And I was thinking of another woman observer of great education and experience, who first tipped me off as a journalist when I was trying to cover the stuff about banking deregulation and so forth, and when Clinton was president and they did the basic financial deregulation. A woman named Brooksley Born, who was head of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and she had your kind of background, you know; a leading lawyer with the banks, and so forth. Understood this a lot better than most of the men who were powerful, including Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin; Lawrence Summers, who took over from him and went on to be the head of Harvard; Alan Greenspan–none of them really understood these collateralized debt obligations, credit default swaps; she did. She blew the whistle on it, and they basically destroyed her. She was forced out of the Clinton administration, and what have you. Did you know about Brooksley Born’s work when you got into this? Do you have any sense? I mean, this was really sort of the first major whistleblower, and she was, as you have been, basically pushed aside.

CS: Yes. I definitely knew about her. And you know, I have to say that I was, you know, just taking that historical perspective, which I think is an important point of view through which we should approach this topic. I mean, I remember when I was in law school, I was one of the very first graduating classes to graduate into a post-Glass-Steagall world. From a 50,000-foot level, I think people have a better understanding of what that means, in the sense, you know, you have all of a sudden the securities and the banking products can get together. But from a practical standpoint, from a ground-zero level, where I was at, that essentially meant two things. From a professional standpoint, we studied and were aware of the fact that there were a bunch of people on one side of the aisle, the investment products side–you know, the collateralized debt obligations that you mentioned. And then there were people who were on the banking side; we’re talking, you know, for purposes of argument, credit cards and debit cards. And that these people, they may have known about their products, but they were highly specialized; they only knew about the one or two things that they touched, and they certainly didn’t know about them and how they interacted together. And one of the things that I remember studying were not just the cases of whistleblowers, but also discussing amongst our classmates, you know, what the impact would be of all of a sudden having a class or a series of classes, graduating from law school, with people who are focusing on banking and compliance, like I was, and who are having to understand both of these products and sort of how they interact together. And what, sort of visualizing what our work life would be like, in terms of reporting to people that had an incomplete understanding of how the banking world worked. So, yes, I was definitely aware; I understood perfectly where she was coming from. And she was very much a cautionary tale for the rest of us who are lawyers. In terms of, if you find yourself in these difficult situations, you sort of game out what potentially can happen. And I certainly took it into consideration when I was gaming out whether or not to whistleblow.

RS: Well, before you get to the whistleblowing stage, I think you’re being too kind to what I personally think are people who should be considered as, or at least charged and examined often with what is criminal behavior. Because ignorance is really not a good defense; when they were called before congressional committees, these knowledgeable people admitted they really didn’t understand collateralized debt obligations and credit default swaps. And for people who are not that familiar, you mentioned Glass-Steagall. And what Glass-Steagall was, was one of the, really maybe the most important response of Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s democratic administration to the Great Depression. And how did this terrible depression happen, how were the banks so irresponsible. And they decided the key thing was to separate investment banks from commercial bank; investment banks could be high-rollers, private money, you know what you’re doing, you have knowledge; and commercial banks where you’re basically protecting the assets of ordinary people, they’re not knowledgeable, they’re trusting your expertise. And eliminating Glass-Steagall eliminated this wall between the two kinds of banking. And the company that you went to observe, Goldman Sachs, was an investment bank. And by the working of that law, they should have been allowed to go belly-up when it turned out they had a lot of these dubious credit default swaps and collateralized debt obligations. To people who don’t know, a credit default swap was a phony insurance policy pretending to cover these things, but really there’s nothing backing it up. And somehow, in order to save them, they were allowed to announce they could do commercial banking. One could argue, in some ways, the barrier was lifted to help–Citigroup was of course the other one–Citibank. And these are two banks that the government stepped in to help and create this monster. Is it not the case?

CS: Yeah, that’s absolutely the case. But there’s a couple of things that we need to keep in mind. I mean, I think that we’re all sort of educated enough to know that, you know, where there’s a will, there’s a way. And so if a system can be corrupted, people that are allowed to grab hold of power will corrupt it–insofar and only for so long as we allow those people to have the ability and the power to corrupt it. So ultimately, talking about more or less rules, or different rules, is productive only to a point. Because ultimately what we’re talking about here is the haphazard, slap on the wrist, failure to truly enforce the rules and regulations equitably across the system. And that creates the imbalances that you see, for example, in Goldman Sachs, and that you see in the system in general. One of the things that happened as a result of Glass-Steagall coming down was that a lot of the investment bankers were allowed to take over the commercial banks. And those investment bankers knew nothing about banking, and Goldman is a great example of that. I mean, when I arrived three years in after the financial crisis, what was one of the things that was very shocking to me was going into meeting after meeting with Goldman senior management and hearing them lie, doublespeak, and most shockingly of all, insist that they didn’t have to comply with the law. And that is a problem. Because a bank that doesn’t believe, or management at a bank that doesn’t believe they have to comply with the law–you bet they are not supervising their employees correctly, and they’re not incentivizing employees correctly in terms of how to do their job. So their behavior is injecting enormous risk into the system.

RS: Why should they think they should comply with the law when they got the law written and they could get it rewritten? I mean, after all, the treasury secretary, who pushed in the Clinton administration, right, to get rid of this restraint of Glass-Steagall and allow companies like Goldman Sachs to cross that line, was Robert Rubin. And he had been a top executive at Goldman Sachs. In fact, people used to refer to it as Government Sachs, that they had people all over the government, and it was a revolving door. And I want to point out that what you did, which was really unique–you had the guts to record these conversations. When you finally got to have your say before Congress, you could be backed up because you had the record. And tell us about that record. The conversations you recorded are absolutely chilling in describing an atmosphere of cynicism; you know, corruption; contempt, actually, for the political process and for restraint and regulation.

CS: Yeah. And I would sort of add that part of what the book sort of points out is that I didn’t really get my say. I mean, Congress did hold a hearing, but they did not invite me to testify. They didn’t want to hear what I had to say. And so I think what we have in terms of this story is really not just a failure of the banks and the regulators, but also a failure of our prosecutors. I mean, a lot of the statutes that could be used–criminal statutes, even, that could be used to hold these executives accountable are not being used, and they have not expired; we could have prosecutors holding these people accountable. We could have trial lawyers filing cases and holding these people accountable. Yet we can’t count on them to do it; we can’t count on the judiciary to do anything about it. I mean, when you read about what happened in my case in the book, it’s tragic, you know? It’s unbelievable.

RS: Tell us about that. Because you had a judge who was actually deep into this system who threw your case out.

CS: The case was assigned to a judge who was friends with the attorney, I had worked with the attorney that represented the Fed. And then two days before dismissing the case, she revealed that she was married to someone who represented Goldman Sachs for a living. So, yeah, there you go. [Laughs] I mean, it’s almost impossible in terms of successfully blowing the whistle. But going back to your question with respect to the recordings and having a say, I think the question that we need to be asking ourselves is this: the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and the Federal Reserve in general, is tasked with supervising the banks. They have recorders. They have the law on their side. New York is a one person consent state. Banks, private banks, habitually record everything that goes on inside the bank, and they do it for good reason. Because they do it to stop and prevent fraud, among employees and by anybody that walks in the door. Why is the Federal Reserve not recording these executives? Why are they not preserving evidence? I think that is the question that we need to be asking ourselves. You know, what I did was not special. What I did is what the Fed should have been doing.

RS: Well, it was special in that [Laughs]–come on! There have been a lot of witnesses to these crimes, really, and you’re the lone voice from within that system that dared to speak up. And as I said, had you not been able to document it with these tapes, you would have been just dismissed as some kind of kook. The book is called Noncompliant: A Lone Whistleblower Exposes the Giants of Wall Street. You know, what is so important is nuance and language and attitude. And the people on Wall Street can affect the protection of manners and complexity. I remember Lawrence Summers testifying in Congress on why you had to get rid of Glass-Steagall, and he said “this is very complicated.” And he said the same thing Alan Greenspan said: “These people know what they’re doing,” and so forth. It wasn’t complicated. If the Mafia did it, you’d see right through it in five minutes. Right? You were bundling a bunch of lousy deals together with some good deals, and you didn’t even know what was in there, and you sold them, and you got a phony insurance contract to back it up. And yet none of these people have been, gone to jail; very few, one or two have been prosecuted as kind of a scapegoat. But the book is a great story of an American heroine–but this is what everybody should do! [Laughs] I mean, the real issue about whistleblowers like yourself is why did it take you? Where were the other folks? How many people–yeah, go ahead.

CS: Yeah, agreed. I think that’s exactly right. You know, there’s a number of reasons why I wrote the book. First of all, because I think it’s an important contribution to the historical record. As to what is the systemic culture of corruption that exists in these regulatory agencies that are taking our taxpayer dollars and paying themselves handsome salaries to work against the American taxpayers. And then the second reason I wrote it is to incentivize people to come forward with their stories. I wasn’t the only person who wanted to blow the whistle in terms of what was going on there. My circumstances were unique, and I sort of go through it in the book, in the sense that I was very lucky, for example, that the Fed refused to even negotiate the mandated settlement that they were supposed to negotiate with me. But they refused, and that allowed me to sue. There’s a number of people who have gone through the process and have been silenced by, you know, getting a monetary offer and signing a settlement agreement. And we don’t hear about them because they are forced not to talk. What I sort of thought about was, you know, this is just a unique–you know, I didn’t ask to be in this situation, but I felt it was my civic duty. Because I do think that we need more people to really think about how in their daily lives, they can stop rewarding bad behavior. We live in a culture where we reward bad behavior, we worship bad behavior, and it’s something that needs to stop, you know. Changing the culture, the regulatory culture on the U.S. governmental level is something that’s going to take a decade, maybe two. And we need to start now, before things get worse. We are not in the best-off of situations as a country; you know, we have what seems like an economic boom, but it’s really just a debt-fueled economic boom that is going to be temporary. And it’s very tough to fix these types of cultural issues, system issues, when the hurricane of the next financial crisis hits. We need to fix it now, while we still have a semblance of peace, while we still have the sun shining. And we don’t know how much longer that’s going to be. I hope it’s long enough to fix it. I hope that people are inspired to come forward and to think about how to make a difference in their daily lives. You know, because we need to start thinking of raising children and raising adults that are incentivized in their daily lives to reward good behavior. I think that until we create a critical mass of Americans that in their daily lives refuse to reward bad behavior, we’re not going to see real systemic change.

RS: Well, we’ll see change. It might not be good change. I mean, you have Donald Trump–and I want to put some oomph behind this, that it’s bipartisan. Because one of the–you know, everybody, a lot of people I know are very upset about Donald Trump. He’s speaking to what Hillary Clinton calls the “deplorables”; but there’s a lot of people hurting out there. And if you read a study done by the Federal Reserve of St. Louis about the consequence of this economic meltdown that was engineered from places like Goldman Sachs, the human cost was incredible. I mean, people lost everything. They weren’t bailed out. There was no mortgage relief. They were not helped. The banks were bailed out. And yet no one has been held accountable, and the politicians, democrats and republicans, who supported it, have gotten off scot-free.

CS: Yeah, I think you’re absolutely right. This is not a democratic problem, this is not a republican problem. This is an American problem with worldwide impact. The U.S. dollar is a reserve currency. The world depends in large part on the American banking system to work. And for it to work, there are these rules, and these rules are there to create trust in the system and to create smooth processes in the system, so that money can be moved and the economy can continue to grow. If the world can no longer trust the American banking system because Americans cannot be trusted to regulate it, they are going to move away from the American banking system. They are going to move away from the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency. And then we are going to find ourselves in the situation that a lot of countries that are not governed by reserve currencies find themselves occasionally, from time to time, whenever they have a crisis. You know, we’re talking about countries in Latin America; we’re talking about countries in Africa; we’re talking about countries in Asia. I hope the book will inspire people to really take a look around and realize, you know, the American consumer, the American worker, is incredibly powerful. You know, these banks cannot survive without our money. We don’t have to wait for the government to keep failing us; we don’t have to wait for the judiciary to keep failing us; we don’t have to wait for lawyers to keep failing us. We choose who we work for. We choose where we keep our money. We can choose to protest. We can choose to call our pension funds and tell them, I want you to stop doing business with Goldman Sachs. It’s what we do on a daily basis. When we stand up and we say, I am not going to be banking with these people–they will listen. It’s like, they control all of these other checks and balances that were put in place in terms of the government to stop them. So now it’s up to us as a people to actually do something about this.

RS: Let me take a break. And I’ve been talking to Carmen Segarra, who is actually the lone honest person from within the banking system that I know of who really took the story of what these people were doing, and swindling the American people, and fortunately documented it with tape recording–as they document everything; if you call the bank for information, “your conversation will be recorded to make it more efficient”–well, she turned the table on that, had the record. The book is called Noncompliant: A Lone Whistleblower Exposes the Giants of Wall Street. [omission for station break] I’m not going to be able, in the time that I have here, to do justice to this book, because the devil is in the details. I want to talk about some people who did speak up. I mentioned Brooksley Born, who was this brilliant member of the Clinton administration who got pushed out for speaking up. But when the pressure came down after the Great Recession, and the banks had to be questioned, they at Goldman Sachs turned to a Columbia University finance professor, David Beim. And he did a report. He had access to everything, he did this incredible report. We only know about it because it showed up in some footnote somewhere. And by the way, I haven’t given enough credit here to the people who have helped break this story. ProPublica, who did a really terrific job on it, and the NPR show This American Life, which really did a great job. So there has been really good reporting. As you pointed out, it was absolutely shameful that Congress did not really take testimony from you; you were there as an observer–I think in a red dress, to be noticed. [Laughs]

CS: Yes. Well, you know, red is the color of martyrs.

RS: And so I want to ask you about that. Before you even went there, this guy David Beim had done a study. And William Dudley, the president of the bank, didn’t even respond. He said thank you, they looked at the–and they never responded to the criticisms in that study, which were devastating. Of how the bank was operating.

CS: Yeah, but that’s how the Federal Reserve Bank of New York operates. And that’s, curiously enough, also how Goldman Sachs operates. They say one thing and do another. If you want to know what they’re doing, just flip it, right? I mean, if they’re asking for a report, that means that they plan to do nothing about it. And you know, the book sort of walks you through the story of how they played at this game of pretending to clean up the regulatory issues. I mean, the joke really was on us, the new regulators that were brought in from the industry to actually clean up the problems that were there. None of us are there at the Fed anymore. Every single one of those people that I talk about that validated my story, they’re gone. And they are gone under different circumstances, some in good standing, some in less good standing, but the point is they’re all gone. Because the purpose of bringing us in was not really to change things, it was to ensure that they had a smoke screen and a story to feed the press, that they would print, saying that they had indeed fixed this. And there was nothing else there to see.

RS: We’re going to run out of time here, but I want to nail down one–this chain of responsibility. And I had just mentioned New York Fed president William Dudley, who I believe ran into some difficulty; he had ownership in something that they were trading with. But leaving that aside, he replaced Timothy Geithner. And when Goldman Sachs, when this whole banking thing happened, there was no more important individual in this country, in a position to observe it, than Timothy Geithner. He had been in the Clinton administration; he had worked for Robert Rubin and Lawrence Summers in the Clinton administration when they deregulated Wall Street. And he was rewarded for that deregulation, right, by being named to the most important regulatory position, to be head of the New York Fed. And Barack Obama in 2008, as the banking meltdown was happening, gave a speech at Cooper Union, April of 2008, blasting Wall Street. And then, when Hillary Clinton lost the primary, Barack Obama turned to Lawrence Summers and Timothy Geithner, and these people for advice, and he named Timothy Geithner to be his treasury secretary. The guy who at the New York Fed, where you went there to work and to try to supervise Goldman Sachs–he knew everything about this, and told us nothing, and he was rewarded by being made treasury secretary.

CS: When I’m saying, you know, we have to stop rewarding bad behavior, that’s an example of what I’m talking about. It’s like, we have a culture where we reward people for their bad behavior. And in the Fed it is a systemic problem. And it is a problem that comes from the top down. And when I was at the Fed, Ben Bernanke was head of the Fed; Bill Dudley, as you pointed out, was the head of the New York Fed; and Sarah Dahlgren was his head of supervision. This is a very small world. We’re not talking about a lot of people; the culture is top-down, and everybody there just does what these people say, because if they don’t they’re afraid they’re going to lose their jobs. So from their perspective, they have nothing to lose, because they have a bunch of workers that are going to do as they say. And they will do what is in their best corporate interests. I mean, you have Bill Dudley, who was allowed to hold on to a lot of his investments that predated his arrival at the Fed and were held at Goldman Sachs. And you know, when you have somebody who’s not forced to really work for the government–as in divesting themselves of their own conflicts and truly taking taxpayer money and doing their job–then you can’t expect a good result to come from that. Again, we rewarded bad behavior. And that’s why I think, you know, the key here is really about taking a really good look at our daily lives and seeing, who are we rewarding on a regular basis? And we need to stop rewarding that bad behavior.

RS: But I want to challenge what I think is your optimism. And in fact, you are living proof that doing the right thing can be a career-ender. I haven’t asked you, I mean, I assume you still have a good career; you’re highly talented and competent, and you were, you know, extremely well educated. But you’re not being considered to be treasury secretary or something, right? The consequences for you were quite dire, weren’t they?

CS: They were. And you know, my career in banking is over on a permanent basis. But I think you sort of point out to, a little bit to my personality, and I hope it comes through in the book; I sort of talk about that fact that I’m just a very resilient person. And I just, I don’t like to let the bad guys win. I’d rather go down swinging. So for me, I saw it as an opportunity to do my civic duty and rebuild my life. You know, and I was very lucky to be blessed by so many people who I shared the story to, especially lawyers who were so concerned about what I was reporting, who thought that the Federal Reserve was above this, who thought that the government would not fail us after the financial crisis, and who were livid. And I’ve been blessed with their support through the process of whistleblowing, and I continue to be blessed by their support even after. I have a husband who was, you know, a real hero of the story in my book, and I have been able to remake my life as a lawyer in private practice. And my clients, you know, God bless them, they trust me to help them. And I wouldn’t change what I did for anything. Because I think for me–and I talk about it in the book–I think living a meaningful life is more important than making money. I think for me, making money is important insofar as it pays the bills. But once my bills are paid, it’s about having a meaningful life. And I just feel very, very lucky that I have had the life that I’ve had, that I got to go to a Catholic school that taught me the morals that I believe in. I think that I am who I am, and I think that I would be just as moral if I had grown up Jewish, or if I had grown up a Mormon, or if I had grown up a Protestant. So I feel very blessed that I was exposed to what good values and good behavior are. I decided since I was very little that that’s just the way I wanted to live my life, and that to live meaningfully was more important than anything else. And that has driven all of my decisions, and I found the experience to be rewarding. And when people talk to me about how bad things are and how things sort of look like they’re never going to turn around, I tell them, no. They will turn around. We just need to believe in ourselves and be our own saviors, and be our own heroes in our own daily lives.

RS: But let me, let me challenge that. And yes, you’re an exemplary person. No question. And people should read this book, Noncompliant: A Lone Whistleblower Exposes the Giants of Wall Street. But I want to focus on that word, “lone.” Lone whistleblower. These people had the same great education you had at the best schools, OK? They didn’t blow the whistle. No, they abetted the crime! They made it possible. They destroyed people like Brooksley Born, who dared challenge it. And the fact of the matter is, you can’t expect ordinary people–even myself. You know, I did graduate work in economics, I’m a professor, blah blah blah. But I can tell you, when I went into my bank loans, I didn’t know all the details and what they were talking about and everything. I counted on regulation, I counted on government, I counted on accountability, frankly, on the part of these institutions. So my view is, you can’t expect ordinary people–that’s why we had a distinction between investment banks and commercial banks. Commercial banks are supposed to deal with ordinary people, OK? They’re supposed to hold their money, give them a fair interest rate, make loans on their houses, and help them out. And they have to be regulated, because you know, the ordinary person can’t be an expert. The failure here is of the educated class. Of the superachievers. And you count on those people, yes, to do the right thing. But money talks. And the fact of the matter is, the people you went to school with, at the Ivy League schools, at the wherever–they sold us all out.

CS: I think you make a good point. But I also think that the problems are systemic and run deeper. I mean, I would point out, for example, just from a personal perspective, when I graduated both college and law school I happened to be one of those that graduated into a recession, twice. There weren’t too many jobs. I didn’t have too many options. I ended up working in where I ended up working because it was either that or not feed myself. And I think one of the problems that we have that is systemic is that we have allowed capitalism to create such huge imbalances in how we reward people for their daily work. So people are forced to do something that they may not even like, or may not even be good at, because they have no choice. It’s a shame, because we’re a big enough country, we have a lot of talent, there should be more invisible hand, central planning. This whole system where we are now turning our attention to creating computer programmers is more based on making sure that computer programming becomes a cheap, minimum-wage job where the owners of the computer companies like Apple don’t have to overpay like they are doing now for those workers. So I think that there are more systemic issues than we realize. And I agree with you, I think that, you know, we were sold out by the intellectual class. But we still need to figure out–and the intellectuals are the ones who are going to help us–we need to figure out how to fix the system on a larger scale if we are going to rebalance things. And I don’t have the monopoly on the answer, on all the answers, you know? I’m just a girl born in Indiana to two Puerto Rican parents, you know? [Laughs] It’s not like I have any terms, in any way access to the higher echelons and how that works. But I think that we really do need to think about, in our own ways and in our own lives, how we can sort of convince other people to make the right choices on a daily basis. Because I think that if everybody takes making the right choices seriously, and realizes that we’re all in the same boat–you know, we’re all Americans, this is going to impact us all–I think that we can, slowly but surely, right the boat and start heading in the right direction.

RS: People should read Noncompliant–it’s an important word; they weren’t compliant–A Lone Whistleblower Exposes the Giants of Wall Street. And recognize that the problem with modern governance is that the decisions are made by people who don’t have our common interest, who are bought off. That money talks. And one reason we have such despair now, and we go for demagogues, and we have such divisive, ugly language and ugly politics, is the so-called civilized, well-educated leaders of our country went for the money and betrayed ordinary people. I’ll let you take the last word, and then we’ll wrap it up.

CS: Ah, well, thank you. And again, you know, I know that you are sort of [Laughs] thinking about it from the perspective of a hopeless sort of case. But I do think that there is–and I hope people will look at it as the beginning of change. You know, yes, the book is a very sad story; the bad guys do win, for now. But just because they win the battle doesn’t mean they’re going to win the war. And I refuse to give up hope in the American people, and I refuse to give up hope in the American consumer. I think that we can make a difference if we try. Because I think that when we get the American people–no matter whether they’re democrats, republicans, independent–when we get them educated on the topic of finance, when we get them accessible stories, they will have their say. And they matter–we matter. And it’s important that they come to the table, otherwise this problem isn’t going to get solved.

RS: And if you’re someone who, or know someone who lost their home, or wondered what happened to the American dream, or where are the good jobs–you got to read Noncompliant: A Lone Whistleblower Exposes the Giants of Wall Street. My guest has been Carmen Segarra, who is a veteran of it, and understands it. That’s it for Scheer Intelligence. The producers for Scheer Intelligence are Joshua Scheer and Isabel Carreon. Our engineers at KCRW are Kat Yore and Mario Diaz. And at USC, at the Annenberg School for Communication and Journalism, Victor Figueroa and Sebastian Grubaugh provided excellent assistance, as well as NPR in New York. I’m Robert Scheer. See you next week.

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It’s Not Working! Charting China’s Loosening Policy Path

Since June 2018, China has been loosening monetary and fiscal policies in an attempt to refloat the sinking red ponzi amid the shadow banking system’s deflation.

As the following chart from Goldman Sachs shows, it is not working as the Current Activity Indicator continues to slump…

It seems no matter what China throws at it, the economy (or the market) won’t behave as the text-books say it should. The crackdown on the shadow-banking system is hard to overcome it seems with even the most finely tuned hammer of monetary policy…

 

As Goldman’s Andrew Tilton (Chief Asia Economist) suggests:

“…two challenges brought us here.

Internally, policymakers’ efforts to constrain the growth of shadow banking and reduce financial risks worked almost too well. Financial regulations introduced in 2017 and early 2018 led to a meaningful contraction in shadow banking, which slowed overall credit growth and tightened credit conditions, particularly for private companies.

And externally, the escalation in US tariffs raised questions about China’s export growth and damaged confidence in the economic outlook. As a result, our China Current Activity Indicator (CAI) has fallen nearly two percentage points from its 1H2018 average of over 7%.”

On the policy side, he remains optimistic…

“I do think policymakers have a better understanding of the macro problems and risks today. They also have a greater appreciation for the side effects of policy stimulus, which seems to have made them less willing to ease aggressively. They don’t want to do more than necessary to support growth.”

But…

There are reasons to be concerned [that easing is becoming less effective]. Local government officials who typically implement infrastructure spending and other forms of stimulus are facing conflicting pressures. The emphasis in recent years on reducing off-balance-sheet borrowing, selecting only higher-value projects, and eliminating corruption has made local officials more cautious. But at the same time, the authorities are now encouraging local officials to do more to support growth, like accelerate infrastructure projects. President Xi himself recently acknowledged the incentive problems and administrative burdens facing local officials.”

And while the short-term does not look good, Tilton is hopeful for H2 2019…

Growth is likely to slow a bit further, given that the credit cycle is still a drag and stimulus is ramping up relatively slowly. Chinese exports have also benefited from some frontloading, given that until recently it looked like US tariffs might increase in January; the payback for that in early 2019 will likely shave as much as 20bp off of GDP growth. Nonetheless, we expect growth to firm up in the second half of next year. Remember that China’s GDP growth is not only a measure of economic performance, but also a formal target that matters for credibility. “

But we give the final word to Evan Medeiros, former Senior Director for Asian Affairs at the National Security Council, who is more skeptical of any return to normal any time soon…

“We should expect a ‘new normal’ of persistent and consistent [US-China] tensions. Although cooperation between the two countries will continue, it will be difficult, episodic, and limited to big global questions.”

Key to either scenario will be China’s willingness to compromise. For his part, Medeiros thinks China is prepared to make enough changes to its trade and investment practices to avoid a trade war, largely because of its domestic economic challenges. But he cautions that Xi Jinping – whom he spent time with as an advisor to President Obama – is confident enough to tolerate more friction in US-China relations than his predecessors. And if the trade conflict worsens, Medeiros thinks US companies will find themselves hamstrung in China, with other foreign competitors reaping the benefits.

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Why Is Every Asset Down In 2018 (& 3 Questions For 2019)

In his latest Strategy Monthly, Louis-Vincent Gave writes…

Investors will be happy to bid farewell to 2018, a miserable year in which all assets underperformed US dollar cash.

But, Gave notes that for next year, three questions are critical:

1) Will the US-dollar liquidity squeeze ease?

2) Will the expanding US budget deficit prove a decisive factor? and

3) Are we witnessing the slow-motion unraveling of the “Chimerica” synergy between the US and China?

And what they imply is critical:

*  *  *

Option 1: A Liquidity Squeeze (And How It Ends)

Does oil start a chain reaction leading to an easier Fed?

Option 2: Growing US Budget Deficits Are Crowing-Out The Private Sector

Despite record-high tax receipts, the US budget deficit once again expanded in 2018. This is unprecedented. We have never seen consecutive deficit expansions outside of a recession.

So what happens next? Will the US government:

1) Shrink spending,

2) increased tax revenues, or

3) continue to expand deficits?

And if so, then will easy fiscal/easy money mix end the deflationary era?

This would have massive consequences for portfolio construction – long bonds did terribly, and equity portfolios were best hedged by gold.

Option 3: The End Of “Chimerica”

This year’s single most-important event has been the rise in China-US tensions. Are these tensions:

1. A by-product of President Trump’s negotiating methods, so that by April a deal will be struck  which brings us back to something approaching the previous status quo? Or,

2. The direct consequence of the fact that so many Trump advisors see China as a long-term threat to the US and want China cut down to size through an economic cold war?

China’s response: de-dollarization

China remains highly dependent on resource imports priced in US dollars. To reduce its dollar-dependence at a time of rising conflict with the US, and to advance its own imperial ambitions, China has an incentive to de-dollarize commodity prices, and promote greater use of the renminbi.

To shift Asian trade and commodities pricing away from the US dollar, the renminbi needs to be a credible alternative.

One step in this direction is establishing a track record for the renminbi as a strong currency – as illustrated by the strong returns of renminbi cash over the past two decades. Another is the creation of renminbi-denominated oil futures and gold futures.

Which raises the question – Is the renminbi managed against a basket? Or against gold?

An interesting side-note on the renminbi: It fell sharply this summer, not only against the dollar, but against the CFETS trade-weighted basket that is supposedly the target of PBOC policy. Yet it barely moved against gold…

This could be a coincidence – or evidence of Beijing’s long-term plan of de-dollarizing commodity prices.

By linking the renminbi to gold, even if loosely, it can crate an alternative for international payments, without losing control of its currency.

Read more here…

*  *  *

Full Gavekal Research note below:

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Hedge Fund CIO: “327 Million Americans Now See China As Our Rival, Our Adversary, An Enemy”

Submitted by Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management

Anecdote

“What really matters?” he wondered, the Pacific Ocean far below, magnificent, the flawless symmetry of its swell.

“Brexit doesn’t really matter,” he thought, which is not to say it won’t create waves if it ever happens.

“Italy matters more,” he thought, delicate ice crystals creeping in from the edges of his oval widow, nature’s order, grace. Europe’s political project has been fraught from the start and will remain so till the end. But it remains superior to what came before. An Italian exit would spark economic chaos for a time. A market crash for sure. But those things don’t matter much. “A disintegration of the union and a return to continental conflict would really matter, but Europeans are exhausted, spent,” he thought, unconcerned.

“Does Mohammed bin Salman matter?” Not at all. The Sunni Shia civil war started in 632 AD, and still rages. Their leaders come and go. Each temporary peace succumbing to blind hatred, intrigue, power lust. The Middle East doesn’t matter, never has.

“Does populism really matter?” Of course. But it may yet prove healthy, a natural response to the grievances of those left behind, a wake-up call before something worse.

“Everything finds equilibrium, peacefully or otherwise,” he thought, the air at 41,000 feet -81 degrees Fahrenheit, flowing smoothly. “Nafta, tariffs, these trade disputes don’t really matter,” he whispered, though their chill will be felt for a decade.

And his attention turned to China. In two years, something utterly remarkable has happened. Obscured by the incessant talk of political polarization and social division, Americans have been quietly led to form a powerful bond. Republicans, democrats, business leaders, our middle class, blue collar workers, military generals, our young and old – united. And we’ve not yet begun to comprehend the consequences.

“327mm Americans now see China as our rival, our adversary, an enemy, a rising threat to be contained. And that really matters.” 

* * *

Making Enemies:

“How China’s Economic Aggression Threatens the Technologies and Intellectual Property of the United States and the World,” was the title of the 65-page White House Trade and Manufacturing Policy Report in June.

“A highly centralized and non-transparent Chinese government which is aggressive in its military posture with its economic strength and treats intellectual property and religious minorities horribly, poses a far greater threat to the US than Russia,” warned US Secretary of State Pompeo in September.

“Chinese security agencies masterminded the wholesale theft of US technology, including cutting-edge military blueprints, and using that stolen technology, the Chinese Communist Party is turning plowshares into swords on a massive scale,” explained VP Pence in Oct.

“The attack by Chinese spies reached almost 30 US companies, including Amazon and Apple, by compromising America’s technology supply chain, according to extensive interviews with government and corporate sources,” reported Bloomberg in October.

“The US has had enormous concerns for years about the practice of Chinese firms to use stolen American IP, to engage in forced technology transfers, and to be used as arms of the Chinese govt’s objectives,” said Security Advisor Bolton this week.

“The US was pursuing Huawei’s CFO as part of a criminal probe related to attempts by Huawei to sell US-made equipment to Iran in violation of sanctions,” reported the FT this week.

“When people or countries come in to raid the great wealth of our Nation, I want them to pay for the privilege of doing so. It will always be the best way to max out our economic power,” tweeted Trump.

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US Futures Dive At Open, Take Out Thursday’s Lows

Amid stern words from both sides (China over Huawei, US over “hard deadlines” and “predatory behavior”), US futures have tumbled at the open, back below Thursday’s pre-panic-bid lows…

Of course, it’s not just China-US tensions, as Bloomberg notes: Here’s a non-exhaustive list of potential risk-off drivers hanging over Monday’s open:

  • China summons U.S. Ambassador over the Huawei case

  • Trump Chief of Staff Kelly to leave, amid a welter of fresh Mueller developments

  • China reports weaker trade and inflation data

  • May pushes ahead on Brexit vote despite Cabinet, DUP opposition

  • Soggy U.S. payrolls, though not soggy enough to stop a December Fed hike

  • France protests intensify, raising concern of economic damage

And given that list Dow -200 is not too bad…

The S&P and Nasdaq are also falling…

Gold and Crude are modestly higher…

Treasury futures are bid, implying 10Y Yields down around 2bps.

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China CPI Misses; PPI Inflation Is Lowest In Two Years

One day after China reported the worst trade data in over half a year, with the trade war with Washington finally hitting exports hard, which rose only 5% in November or half the Wall Street forecast of 9.9%…

while import growth tumbled to just 3%, far below the 14% Wall Street estimate even as Chinese imports from the US plunged  25% in November from a year earlier, the single biggest monthly decline since January 2017 when China’s economy and capital markets were reeling in the aftermath of the Yuan devaluation and Shanghai Composite bubble bursting…

… on Sunday the bad news continued, when Beijing reporting that CPI inflation slowed to just 2.2% yoy in November, below the 2.4% estimate and down from 2.5% in October, while PPI inflation decelerated further to 2.7% yoy in November, from 3.3% in October.

In sequential terms, headline CPI prices declined 1.5% in November, down notably from an increase of 3.5% in October.

Among major subcategories, inflation in fresh vegetables dropped to 1.5% yoy in November from 10.1% yoy in October, with a meaningful sequential contraction. The decline in pork prices slowed slightly further to -1.1% yoy in November from -2.3% yoy. Sequentially pork prices increased for the sixth consecutive month, although the pace of increase moderated slightly in November.

At the same time, non-food CPI inflation also slowed to 2.1% yoy in November from 2.4% yoy, primarily on what Goldman described as a high base effect (non-food prices up 3.4% mom s.a. ann. in November 2017), with prices down very slightly by 0.3% mom s.a. ann. Inflation in fuel costs went down markedly to 12.6% yoy in November from 22.0% yoy in October, while core inflation (headline CPI excluding food and energy) was unchanged at 1.8% yoy November. Inflation in medicine and medical care, which has been a major driver of the trend in core inflation in recent months, stabilized at 2.6% yoy in November, with a halt to its downward trend since September 2017.

Meanwhile, wholesale price PPI inflation moderated for the fifth consecutive month to 2.7% yoy in November, the lowest since November 2016 (headline PPI inflation turned positive in September 2016). This implies an annual rate of -1.8% (s.a.) in November, the first sequential decline since June 2017. Inflation in the petroleum industry decelerated the most, and inflation in ferrous/nonferrous metals and chemicals also moderated notably, though somewhat offset by a pickup of inflation in coal mining industry.

So what was behind the latest slowdown in consumer and producer prices?

According to Goldman, CPI inflation pressure eased in November, primarily on lower inflation in vegetable and energy prices. The sequential momentum of vegetable prices has been weaker than the average seasonal pattern in recent two months, but it appears to have been normalizing in early December based on daily vegetable prices data. Pork prices have been broadly consistent with our expectation, trending up on hog cycle, although the net impact of the hog diseases in November was negative due to the selloffs by producers of live pigs.

And while the risk of continued deflation is certainly a major headache for Beijing, Goldman believes that there is some hope that headline CPI inflation may rise back up slightly in the coming months, primarily on gradual normalization of vegetable prices, continued upward trend in pork prices (and low base), and the stabilization of inflation in health services.

On the other hand, the continued plunge in commodity prices will likely more than offset any headline price gains, with a negative PPI print almost certain in the coming months, with a subzero CPI to follow.

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Stuck In The Middle (Of The Range) With You

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Stuck In The Middle (Range) With You

On Tuesday, I asked the question as to whether the “bull is back” or “is it a bull trap?” This question was triggered by the outsized advance on Monday on hopes the “trade war” had been at least temporarily resolved at the G-20 summit:

“The good news is that on Monday the market cleared the 50- and 200-day moving averages. This was an important level of overhead resistance the market needed to clear to get back onto more bullish footing. However, in order for that break to be validated, it must hold through the end of the trading week.”

Unfortunately, the bulls quickly lost that foothold on Tuesday as the markets tumbled wiping out not only all of Trump’s “trade truce” gain, but “Powell’s Put” gain as well. Then on Thursday, news the CFO of Huawei had been arrested sent shock waves through the market which sent the Dow plunging nearly 800 points. The only saving grace was when a Fed official was trotted out to suggest the Fed was likely going to pause rate hikes. But, on Friday, weaker employment, confidence, and wage growth numbers sent the markets back to their lows once again.

Also, while it is has been widely suggested to dismiss the negative crossover of the 50- and 200-dma moving averages (red circle), what it represents is mounting downward pressure on stock prices currently.

However, for all of the volatility, the market has not made any real progress since October as the “bulls” and “bears”continue to fight it out in a broad trading range as shown below. While the lower support is currently holding at 2632ish, a failure of the that low will quickly lead to a retest of lows from March and April of this year.

So far, the consolidation of the market has continued to give supports to bulls case as sentiment has gotten very negative during this time. However, as I noted on Tuesday for our RIA PRO subscribers:

“Most importantly, the most recent failure at key resistance levels has set the market up to complete the formation of a ‘head and shoulder’ process. This is a topping pattern that would suggest substantially lower asset prices going into 2019 ‘IF,’ and this is a key point, ‘IF’ it completes by breaking the lower ‘neckline.’” 

Chart updated through Friday

John Murphy via Stockcharts.com confirmed the risk to prices as well on Friday:

S&P 500 MAY HAVE MORE DOWNSIDE TO COME …

The daily bars in the chart shows the S&P 500 retesting previous lows formed in late October and late November. And it’s trying to hold there. The shape of the pattern over the past two months, however, isn’t very encouraging. Not only is the SPX trading well below its 200-day average. The two red trendlines containing that recent sideways pattern have the look of a triangular formation (marked by two converging trendlines). Triangles are usually continuation patterns. If that interpretation is correct, technical odds favor recent lows being broken.

If that happens, that would set up a more significant test of the lows formed earlier in the year. Other analysts on this site (besides myself) have also been writing about that possibility. That would lead to a major test of the viability of the market’s long-term uptrend.”

Also, note that the lower MACD is close to registering a “sell signal” which would likely coincide with further weakness in asset prices.

Is there any hope a bigger decline can be averted? Absolutely.

The recent market turmoil, which threatens both consumer confidence and the household wealth effect, has shaken the Fed from their “hawkish” position. In the next few days, the market will be analyzing Jerome Powell’s latest message as the Fed hikes rates 0.25% in December. If the language of the announcement becomes substantially more “dovish,” and signals no more hikes into 2019, the markets will initially rally sharply on the news. However, given that a Fed pause at 2.5% would signal much slower economic growth, it will likely only be a temporary boost until weaker earnings are realized from slower economic growth.

The other potential opportunity is for the current Administration to drop the “trade war” rhetoric. Given that Trump created the “trade problem” to begin with, even small gestures of trade improvement between the U.S. and China would be counted as a “Trumpian victory.” However, a reversal or reduction of the tariffs would be a boost to corporate earnings and provide a boost of confidence to corporations.

Again, as with the Fed funds rates, the reduction of tariffs would most likely only provide a short-term boost to asset prices. Eventually, the focus of the markets will turn back to earnings and economic growth which are going to slow as previous boosts from natural disasters and tax cuts fade. 

However, that is in the future.

For now, we have to deal with what “IS,” and the weakness of the market is very concerning.

After having reduced equity risk a couple of weeks ago, we are looking for opportunities as they present themselves. However, for the most part, our bond positions have continued to carry the bulk of the load as of late as rates continue to drop.

As I noted on Friday, don’t dismiss the yield curve too quickly. But like our technical indicators below, we are looking for confirmation of several curves to go negative simultaneously which has historically provided the clearest signal of a recessionary onset.

Daily View

Last week I stated:

“The rally over the past few days has virtually exhausted a bulk of the ‘oversold’ condition which previously existed. While such doesn’t mean the market can’t move higher, it simply suggests that most of the ‘fuel’ available for a rally has been utilized. With the markets still on a “sell signal” currently, and below major points of resistance, remaining a bit cautious until the underlying technical backdrop improves seems prudent.”

That turned out to be very good advice as the market retested lows once again. With the market back to “oversold”conditions (what a difference a week can make) all the market needs is any bit of “good news” to bounce. However, as noted above, with the markets sitting on major support, a rally this coming week is critical. We suggest using the rally to sell into currently to rebalance risk in portfolios.

Action: After reducing exposure in portfolios previously, and portfolios much heavier in cash currently, we are giving the market time to figure out what it wants to do. Given the consolidation range over the last couple of months, it is too risky to be either overly short or aggressively long currently. Cash is the best hedge currently. 

Weekly View

On a weekly basis, the story remains much the same. With a sell signal registered for only the 7th time in the past two decades, we will just allow the markets to figure out what they want to do before getting more aggressive. The recent violations of long-term moving averages suggest a change in market conditions that should not be dismissed. However, should the market improve, and ultimately reverse the relative “sell signals,” we will gladly increase exposure back to target weights.

Action: Hold higher levels of cash and rebalance risk as necessary on this rally.

Monthly View

Like the daily and weekly analysis above, the market has confirmed a “sell signal” on a monthly basis as well. The good news here is that the long-term moving average, which is a critical level of bullish trend support, has NOT been violated as of yet. This suggests the longer-term bullish trend remains intact and we should not get overly conservative just yet.

Nonetheless, the deterioration in the markets is extremely concerning, and while the official “bull market” is not dead as of yet, there are more than enough warnings which suggest erring to the side of caution, for now, is warranted.

Action: Use any rally to reduce risk and rebalance portfolios accordingly. 

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Morgan Stanley: “A Credit Bear Market Has Started And Will Be Painful”

Authored by Vishwanath Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley’s head of Fixed Income Research

As the Cycle Turns…  

It is that time of the year again – time to review how the year has been and for strategists like us to return to the occupational hazard of crystal ball-gazing about the prospects for next year. Corporate credit markets, particularly in the US, are heading to a notably negative return year. Notable because it is a dramatic reversal of fortunes from a year ago and coming in a year of strong growth in the US economy, with defaults and ratings downgrades at rather benign levels. It is worth noting that this reversal of fortunes is precisely what our US credit strategists had predicted for this year. They now expect this bearish turn to continue in 2019.

The tricky handoff from quantitative easing (QE) to quantitative tightening (QT) that is under way is central to the cracks that have appeared across risk markets and credit markets in particular. Global QE provided the necessary conditions for corporations to lever up, which is exactly how they responded.

Outstanding US corporate credit market debt has more than doubled from US$3.2 trillion in 2008 to well over US$7 trillion today, with the biggest chunk of it coming in the BBB portion of the credit curve, the lowest rung of investment grade ratings. High debt growth has translated to high leverage – BBBs with 31% of BBB debt leveraged at or above 4.0x.

Lower yields driven by QE had important consequences for investor behaviour as well. The search for yield became a driving force which led to substantial inflows into US credit, particularly overseas investors. Also thanks to the Fed emerging as a large non-price-sensitive, programmatic investor of agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) as part of QE, fixed income investors became progressively underweight MBS and overweight corporate credit. As the cycle got extended, the net result of these flows into credit investments has seen the manifestation of late-cycle excesses in credit markets. High debt growth has led to high leverage and weak structural protections for credit investors.

With the transition into QT, these flows are reversing. We have a marked drop-off in 2018 of foreign investor flows into US credit investments.

Without the Fed to compete with, fixed income investors are looking to rebalance their portfolios with an eye on agency MBS, where spreads are at post-crisis wides. At the same time, the effect of the latecycle excesses that built up during QE are beginning to come to a head in corporate credit fundamentals. As growth decelerates and company earnings’ growth slows, these fundamental cracks are set to widen. As Adam Richmond, the head of US credit strategy, noted in a recent note, as the credit cycle turns, there is a potential for meaningful fallen angels, bonds downgraded from investment grade to high yield. Given how big the credit market, particularly the BBB segment, has become, downgrades into high yield will likely emerge as a major ‘stress point’ in the next credit cycle.

Another focal point of late-cycle excess has been in leveraged loans, which are now larger than the high yield bond market. Loan leverage levels have risen consistently in this cycle, especially first lien leverage, and those leverage levels have become more ‘optimistic’ with larger and larger EBITDA adjustments. The debt cushion beneath the average loan has gotten smaller all cycle, which should translate directly into higher loan losses in the event of default, with an increasing prevalence of loan-only deals. The growth in structured products such as collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) has driven the growth in leveraged loans. If the pace of new issuance slows in CLOs as we expect over 2019, the leveraged loan market would face additional headwinds.

As the credit cycle turns, an important distinction needs to made about how this credit cycle turn would evolve compared to past cycles. We would argue that this credit cycle turn would be much like the ones we saw during the early 1990s and late 1990s – a gradual pick-up in defaults and downgrades over multiple years – and unlike what we experienced during the last cycle turn during the financial crisis of 2008-09, when there was a spike up in defaults and downgrades which was followed by a spike down to historical average levels in a relatively short period of time.

The consequence of this shape of evolution of the credit cycle is that the large systemic dimension of the last crisis would be much less pronounced and what we will realise is a more garden-variety credit cycle turn, something credit investors have more experience in dealing with. That said, no doubt a cycle turn is coming, and this bearish turn will be painful for credit investors, in our view.

The silver lining is that investor complacency is lower and valuations have gotten cheaper in the last few months. Even if the consensus has embraced the idea that end-of-cycle risks are rising notably, at the least, sentiment is much less uniformly bullish than it was at the beginning of 2018. That said, the credit bear market has started, and until valuations have truly priced in long-term fundamental risks, our advice is that investors should use rallies to move up-in-quality. Have a great Sunday.

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Lighthizer Sees March “Hard Deadline” For Trade Talks; Navarro: “China Predatory Behavior Is Over”

As many expected, the US’s insistence that its decision to prosecute the daughter of one of China’s preeminent corporate titans wouldn’t have any bearing on the trade truce has already been categorically refuted by China, which has threatened “severe punishment” against Canada (and now the US) if Meng Wanzhou isn’t released.

But that hasn’t stopped senior Trump administration officials from trying to revive the narrative (but only hurting the prospects for a market recovery in the process). Case in point: During an appearance on CBS’s Face the Nation where he insisted that Meng’s arrest wouldn’t impact US-China trade talks, Trump Administration Trade Rep. Robert Lighthizer said that the March deadline for the 90-day trade negotiations is a hard deadline that won’t be moved by the administration.

“He’s not going beyond March,” Lighthizer said.

MARGARET BRENNAN: So you-you have until March, but you could extend these talks. That’s not a hard deadline?

AMB. LIGHTHIZER: As far as I’m concerned it’s a hard deadline. When I talked to the president of the United States he’s not talking about going beyond March. He’s talking about getting a deal. If there is a deal to be gotten, we want to get it in the next 90 days.

MARGARET BRENNAN: The tariffs you’re talking about don’t have to do with technology though. In the technology space, will you take action against Chinese firms? Should we expect more actions like the arrest of the Huawei CFO? I know you say that the crime doesn’t directly link here but there are those who say Chinese telecom should be completely banned from American companies.

AMB. LIGHTHIZER: Well, it’s not my position that we should ban telecom from from China into the United States. It certainly is true that there will be continuing criminal justice matters that’ll go on. It’ll come up. There’s been a number of indictments, there’s been a number of actions in this space generally. For me those are separate. They’re separate from the negotiations. We’re looking for structural change and we’re looking for market access. That’s what we’re looking- the criminal justice process will continue. We have an independent system as you know in this country.

MARGARET BRENNAN: So when the markets open tomorrow can they be reassured that these talks with Beijing are happening and that you’re making progress?

AMB. LIGHTHIZER: They can be reassured that if there is a deal that can be made that- that will require or assure the- the- the protection of U.S. technology, the very heart bed of all of our economy it’s not just technology it’s everything from services to manufacturing even farming is a technology industry now in the United States. We will protect that technology and- and- and get additional market access from China. If that can be done, the president wants us to do it. If not, we’ll have tariffs.

Offering more details about the parameters for any lasting trade truce, Trump advisor Peter Navarro said Friday during an appearance on CNBC that any deal with China must include concessions on China’s policy of institutionalized IP theft, as well as a commitment that China will end its state-sponsored cyber-espionage to steal US technology (a transcript of the interview was published by ValueWalk).

We’re at a “critical juncture” in China trade negotiations, says WH trade advisor from CNBC.

Navarro also insisted that the prosecution of the Huawei CFO wouldn’t impact trade talks with China, saying that the issues are completely separate (though it’s becoming increasingly clear that China doesn’t see it that way).

PETER NAVARRO: Well, you raise the perfect point, to be honest. And I think one of the great things about the leadership of Donald Trump is he’s changed completely the narrative on China forever. Up until the time that President Trump took office, we went by this policy of economic engagement thinking that if we simply engaged with China, they would become more democratic and peaceful and more free market oriented. Just the opposite occurred and here we are in this mess. And so we have the Marriott hack, we have the bright light shown on Huawei, which is a very bad actor in the international arena. The other thing, there’s an excellent article in the “Wall Street Journal,” Pulitzer quality, my judgment on the game that China played to invade our export controls on a very sensitive satellite with military technology. These are the kinds of things that China needs to understand that the United States will no longer tolerate. So in terms of anything that happens within the 90 days, we are open and hopeful that a deal will take place but it has to be structural change, verifiable with actual results in order to make this all go. Otherwise we have to defend ourselves as a nation. And President Trump, great leadership on this. He will stand up for the American worker, for American businesses, American farmers against what is well documented Chinese aggression by the Department of Defense and the Secretary of the State and a wonderful speech by Vice President Mike Pence.

[…]

PETER NAVARRO: So two things here. The dinner itself, it was a historic event. I think we have the potential here of doing something much grander than Kissinger and Nixon did many, many decades ago, in terms of bringing China fundamentally into the global economy in a completely different way structurally. But yes, there is skepticism, simply because of China’s past reputation on these matters. So I guess we’ll see what happens. But there’s much at stake here, there’s much at stake here. So it’s really up to the Chinese now. In terms of what we give back, I mean therein lies the rub. President Trump has been eloquent in stating that we are the piggy bank of the world. We’re in all these sorts of one sided bad trade deals and the problem that we have whenever we negotiate with whoever we negotiate is they are getting such a great deal they really don’t want to give us anything. So we are not prepared to give them anything in terms of a deal quid pro quo because we are so much behind the eight ball. We are not steal their technology. We are not forcing the technology transfer. We are not manipulating our currency. We are not counterfeiting and pirating Chinese goods and flooding their markets. We are not having state owned enterprises run rampant around the world, basically exploiting the rest of the world. So what is there for us to give? What we have to give is access to our markets, period. The largest market in the world. Access to our financial markets, our capital markets.

[…]

PETER NAVARRO: So I’m here in Washington not Las Vegas. So I’ll let the markets handicap that. But what I can tell investors is this: this is a historic time. It is critical for the long-term health of the financial markets for the economy to get this right. We had 15 years of China engaging in predatory behavior basically draining over 70,000 factories from America, over 5 million manufacturing jobs. During that time, we had 2% or less growth. We had stagnant wage growth. We had this so called new normal to sin like a Paul upon the world. If we don’t get the China thing right, not just the United States but for the rest of the world we won’t be able to have the next leg of global growth we are looking for. And again that speaks to the leadership of President Donald J. Trump, he sees that vision, he sees that future, he is willing to stand up in order make that happen. And the door is open to China changing. They know what needs to be done. And we hope that they sincerely take actions not to see they will do it, but to actually do it. And it’s all about structural change. It’s not about cash or commodities. It’s structural change.

Insisting that a deal must be made within the negotiating period might be a helpful tactic to try and strong arm the Chinese into a concession (though, if anything, President Xi has shown that he won’t be pressured into accepting a deal that he believes isn’t in China’s best interest), but it’s unlikely that the markets will find Lighthizer’s comments very reassuring. Bulls can only hope that the market starts listening to JPM quant strategist Marko Kolanovic, who we can only imagine will write off reports about the unraveling trade detente as just more “fake news.”

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Nick Ayers Won’t Be Next White House Chief Of Staff; Trump Considers Mark Meadows

In a surprising twist, veteran Republican operative Nick Ayers, currently the chief of staff to Vice President Mike Pence, won’t be tapped to replace John Kelly as White House chief of staff when Kelly leaves the West Wing, a transition that President Trump confirmed by the end of the year, according to the Wall Street Journal.

In place of Ayers, Trump is considering tapping Freedom Caucus leader and North Carolina Congressman Mark Meadows, Axios reported.

Trump has asked confidants what they think about the idea of installing Rep. Mark Meadows, the chairman of the ultra-conservative House Freedom Caucus, as John Kelly’s permanent replacement, according to these three sources.

Ayers confirmed that he had taken himself out of the running in a tweet, adding that he would be leaving the White House at hte end of the year.

Ayers has long been said to be the leading candidate to replace Kelly; his deep connections with Republican legislators and other Republican operatives have been cited as a crucial advantage over Kelly, who reportedly struggled to make inroads on Capitol Hill after taking the chief of staff job during the summer of 2017.

Ayers

Nick Ayers

WSJ said Ayers and Trump were unable to agree on a time frame for the job; Trump reportedly wanted a two-year commitment from Ayers, which he was unwilling to make due to “family concerns”. The 36-year-old Ayers is the father of 6-year-old triplets. He is reportedly planning on leaving the Trump Administration at the end of this year, which means the chief of staff positions for the president and vice president could soon be vacant.

Mr. Ayers is currently chief of staff to Vice President Mike Pence. White House officials had recently described him as the front-runner for the position.

It was unclear on Sunday who would succeed John Kelly, Mr. Trump’s current chief of staff, who is leaving the job this month. White House officials familiar with the planning said it was unclear whether the next staff chief would come from inside or outside the administration.

Mr. Ayers has long planned to leave the administration at the end of the year.

Meadows has also long been rumored as a contender for the chief of staff job, though Ayers has typically been cited as Trump’s preferred candidate.

Ayers is reportedly leaving the administration on good terms. He will join a Republican Political Action Committee where he can help the administration “from the outside,” according to a source quoted by Axios.

 “Nick couldn’t give POTUS a two-year commitment so he’s going to help him on the outside instead,” one of these sources told me. (This news was first reported by the Wall Street Journal.)

Ayers is expected to run the pro-Trump outside group America First. Like Ayers, Meadows also has deep connections on Capitol Hill, which should aid his ability to carry out the chief of staff’s responsibility of serving as a liaison with Congressional leaders. But still, as Axios cautions, nothing is set in stone. And Trump has yet to make a final decision.

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