Category: zerohedge

It Could’ve Been Much Worse: Florida Shooter’s AR-15 Jammed With 150 Rounds Left

In the latest chilling report about the Parkland, Fla. high school shooting that claimed the lives of 17 people (14 of them teenage students), CNN reports that shooter Nikolas Cruz had at least 150 rounds of ammunition left in his AR-15 when he stopped shooting and fled Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School. His gun had reportedly jammed, forcing him to end the assault.

If the gun hadn’t jammed, the death toll could’ve been much, much higher, CBS said.

Cruz had also reportedly etched swastikas into the sides of the magazines that contained the left over ammunition.

It’s still not clear why Cruz stopped firing when he did (though we imagine it’s possible that the firearm jammed). The news follows reports that Cruz attempted to shatter a hurricane window on the third floor in the school’s teacher’s lounge during the shooting. Had he been able to penetrate the window, it’s probable that he could’ve killed many more people, who likely wouldn’t have been able to ascertain where the bullets were coming from. Police have speculated that he might’ve used this stairwell vantage point to kill first responders who arrived on scene.

Cruz

Meanwhile, CNN also disclosed that one of Cruz’s former neighbors, a woman named Joelle Guarino, said she tried to warn authorities about Cruz seven years ago, and that he began displaying troubling behavior as early as age 12.

The shooting has sparked a national debate over the role of military-style semi-automatic weapons and whether more restrictions should be placed on their availability.

Earlier today, Dick’s Sporting Goods announced that it was “going to take a stand” and announced it would permanently ban sales of AR-15s and other assault-style rifles from its stores – a move that could benefit rivals like Cabela’s.

Cruz exhibited many warning signs that were reported to both local, state and federal authorities, but in each instance, were promptly ignored.

The Florida Department of Children and Families investigated Cruz in 2016, and police records show deputies were called to his home more than three dozen times over a seven-year period.

Cruz had begun refusing mental health treatment about a year before the shooting. Jordan Jereb, the leader of white nationalist group Republic of Florida, had initially claimed Cruz was a member of his group but later walked back the claim and local law enforcement said there was no proof that Cruz and Jereb ever met.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/2oI8z58 Tyler Durden

WTI/RBOB Tumble After Bigger Than Expected Crude, Gasoline Builds

WTI was higher and RBOB lower after last night’s API (even as the USD rises) but both tumbled after bigger than expected crude and gasoline builds (and a new record high for US crude production).

Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Energy Analyst Vince Piazza explained that the crude market is in a holding pattern with oil vacillating around $60 a barrel as E&Ps continue to imply higher output this year. U.S. production is poised to grow about 13% to 10.6 million barrels. Distillate demand remains robust, while summer driving season will be the next catalyst for gasoline use. Rising petroleum exports limit inventory bloat. Inventories are just 2% above the five-year norm.

API

  • Crude +933k (+3mm exp)

  • Cushing -1.277mm (-1.2mm exp)

  • Gasoline +1.914mm

  • Distillates -1.473mm

 

DOE

  • Crude +3.02mm (+3mm exp)

  • Cushing  (-1.2mm exp)

  • Gasoline +2.48mm (+600k exp)

  • Distillates  (-950k exp)

This is the 10th weekly drop in Cushing stocks in a row and 4th crude build in the last 5 weeks (seemingly signaling last week’s draw as an outlier)…


Total US oil inventory is now its highest since 2017…

Gasoline exports dropped by nearly half last week to 536,000 barrels a day. Looks like the fog-related closures on the Houston Ship Channel could’ve had more of an impact than expected. Exports fell to the lowest level since early October.

Once again all eyes were on US crude production (which dropped by a miniscule amount last week due to Alaska, while Lower 48 rose), and total US crude production rose to a new record this week…

WTI prices had recovered their API loss but once the DOE data hit, both WTI/RBOB tumbled…

Total crude and product stocks grew 3.73 million barrels, and the main products — crude, gasoline, distillate — are 23 million barrels above the December low. The question is, as Bloomberg’s David Marino asks, is this the start of a seasonal increase, or just a pause in a longer-term decline?

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John Podesta: “Kushner Better Start Wearing His Kevlar On His Back”

Former Clinton campaign manager John Podesta raised some eyebrows in a Tuesday tweet directed at Presidential son-in-law Jared Kushner, who reportedly just lost his access to top secret information amid accusations that “officials in at least four countries” had discussed ways to manipulate the 37-year-old real estate magnate. 

“Jared better start wearing his kevlar on his back,” Podesta tweeted after suggesting that Kushner’s troubles had just begun – referencing a widely mocked picture taken Iraq of Jared awkwardly wearing a bulletproof vest over a blazer. 

As we reported yesterday, all White House aides working on the highest-level interim security clearance were informed on Friday that they will have their clearance downgraded from “Top Secret/SCI-level” to “secret” – walling them off from the most sensitive information – including Kushner. 

Many had expected that Trump would grant Kushner a waiver, even though Trump himself said Friday that he would let Chief of Staff John Kelly decide if such an exception should be granted. In a statement issued last week, Kelly said that any changes to Kushner’s security clearance wouldn’t impact his ability to do his job:

“As I told Jared days ago, I have full confidence in his ability to continue performing his duties in his foreign policy portfolio including overseeing our Israeli-Palestinian peace effort and serving as an integral part of our relationship with Mexico,” Kelly said in the statement.

Meanwhile, hours after Politico dropped the news about Kushner’s security downgrade, the Washington Post – where John Podesta now hangs his hat, reported that officials from at least four countries – China, Israel, Mexico and the United Arab Emirates have explored ways to manipulate Kushner by taking advantage of his “complex business arrangements, financial difficulties and lack of foreign policy experience.” The story cited current and former US intelligence officials – and noted that it is unclear on whether the cited countries took any action. 

White House officials, including National Security Advisor HR McMaster were reportedly uncomfortable about some of Kushner’s contacts, and eventually worked out a system where any contacts he had with foreign officials were to be carefully monitored.

Officials in the White House were concerned that Kushner was “naive and being tricked” in conversations with foreign officials, some of whom said they wanted to deal only with Kushner directly and not more experienced personnel, said one former White House official.

Kushner has an unusually complex set of business arrangements and foreign entanglements for a senior White House aide, experts have said. But his behavior while in office has only drawn more scrutiny and raised concerns that he would be unable to obtain a final security clearance, which he needs to perform the many jobs Trump has entrusted to him, from negotiating foreign trade deals to overseeing a Middle East peace process. –WaPo

Kushner’s family business, the Kushner Companies, was famously having money troubles tied to 666 Fifth Avenue, “the most expensive building ever purchased”, in New York City at least. Though earlier today the Wall Street Journal reported that the family business was planning to buy out Vornado Realty’s stake in the building.

Of course – as we also noted yesterday – a key piece of context is buried more than a dozen paragraphs deep: The notion that foreign governments routinely discuss how they can influence senior administration officials – not just Kushner.

Foreign governments routinely discuss ways they can influence senior officials in all administrations.

“Every country will seek to find their point of leverage,” said one person familiar with intelligence intercepts of foreign officials discussing Kushner.

But Kushner came to his position with an unusually complex set of business holdings and a family company facing significant debt issues.

In light of what appears to be yet another nothingburger – perhaps Podesta’s tweet about Jared wearing kevlar was nothing more than hyperbole – unless of course he meant it literally.

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January Pending Home Sales Crash Most Since 2010

After New- and Existing-Home-Sales have already disappointed, Pending Home-Sales just collapsed too (to the lowest since Oct 2014) to confirm January was a bloodbath for the real estate market.

Pending Home Sales plunged 4.7% in January (massively below the 0.5% expected rise in sales) – this is the biggest drop since May 2010.

Year-over-year Pending home sales are down 1.7%.

Purchases fell 9 percent in the Northeast, 6.6 percent in the Midwest, 3.9 percent in the South and 1.2 percent in the West.

NAR is desperate to convince home-buyers and sellers that this is nothing but an inventory issue, but it is affordability that is the real driver here.

“There’s little doubt last month’s retreat in contract signings occurred because of woefully low supply levels and the sudden increase in mortgage rates,”Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said in a statement.

“With the cost of buying a home getting more expensive and not enough inventory, some prospective buyers are either waiting until listings increase come spring or now having to delay their search entirely to save up for a larger down payment.”

So, will higher rates break housing market momentum?

The following chart suggest ‘yes’ – that surge in rates will have a direct impact on home sales (or prices will be forced to adjust lower) as affordability collapses…

 

And Homebuilder stocks are starting to look a lot less invincible…

As Bloomberg notes, economists consider pending sales a leading indicator because they track contract signings; purchases of existing homes are tabulated when a deal closes, typically a month or two later.

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Trump Blasts Sessions “Disgraceful” Investigation Into FISA Abuses

After a months-long detente between President Trump and his attorney general, former Alabama Senator Jeff Sessions, it appears tensions between the two men are flaring up once again.

Trump supplied one of his harshest rebukes of Sessions in a mid-morning tweet, castigating him for asking the Inspector General – an “Obama guy”, according to Trump – to “investigate potentially massive FISA abuse”.

Trump said the investigation will “take forever, has no prosecutorial power and already late with reports on Comey etc. Isn’t the IG an Obama guy? Why not use Justice Department lawyers? DISGRACEFUL!”

 

 

Sessions announced yesterday afternoon that the DOJ would investigate potential abuses of FISA. At time, it wasn’t clear whether Sessions had signed off on a formal investigation, but he did say that the DOJ’s inspector general would take it up, per the Hill.

Sessions similarly said on Fox News on Sunday that his department would look into the process for obtaining warrants under FISA.

Sessions reportedly offered to resign last Spring amid criticism from the president over Sessions’ decision to recuse himself from overseeing Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s Russia probe. Sessions was famously the first Republican senator to embrace Trump’s then-long-shot campaign.

 

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Chicago PMI Tumbles To 6-Month Lows

After a disappointing drop (and miss) in January, Chicago PMI tumbled further (from 65.7 to 61.9) as US macro data continues to serially disappointed in recent weeks.

Against expectations of a small drop to 64.1, Chicago PMI in February dropped to 61.9 – below even the lowest of economist estimates (forecast range 62 – 68.1 from 30 economists surveyed).

None of the subcomponents rose in February.

  • Prices paid rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion
  • New orders rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion
  • Employment rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion
  • Inventories rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion
  • Supplier deliveries rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion
  • Production rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion
  • Order backlogs rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion

This is the lowest print since August 2017.

As the chart above shows, US economic data has been disappointing so far in 2018 and this Chicago print merely piles on the narrative that the short-term exuberance of an apparently global synchronous recovery are fading fast…

As China’s credit impulse lags aways…

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Trump Border Wall Greenlit By Hispanic “Trump-Hating” California Judge

Authored by Seraphim Hanisch via TheDuran.com,

While media highlighted Trump’s alleged racism, Judge Curiel actually is on record for being pretty impartial and balanced, as Tuesday’s ruling shows…

Judge Gonzalo Curiel, US Federal judge of the Southern District of California, has greenlit the construction of part of President Donald Trump’s border wall with Mexico. This announcement is somewhat of a surprise for the mainstream press, who reported and criticized Trump for being racist in his comments about the judge.

Between the years of 2014 and 2016, Judge Curiel was trying a lawsuit against Trump University, which was being sued for alleged fraud on behalf of three students. At the time of the US Presidential Election, Mr. Trump accused Judge Curiel of being a “Trump hater” during the campaign, and this sort of rhetoric gained a lot of criticism for Candidate Trump as being a racist for saying things like “[Curiel] happens to be, we believe, Mexican, which is great. I think that’s fine…” but also expressing the thought that the judge’s ethnicity would lead him to oppose the matter of US-Mexico border security.

As it turned out, in matters not covered very widely by the press, Judge Curiel actually postponed some court proceedings to avoid a “media frenzy” just before the Presidential election. Further, this was to prevent damage to the impartiality of the jurors in the case. Later, after the election was over, President-elect Trump’s attorneys asked Judge Curiel to delay the case until after the presidential inauguration in 2017. The Judge denied this request, but at the same time, he also urged the suing parties to pursue a settlement, and for that purpose recruited District Judge Jeffrey Miller to facilitate the settlement talks. By November 18th, 2016, all three plaintiffs had agreed to settle, and Curiel certified this decision.

As it has turned out, Judge Curiel has actually been on record as ruling for things in favor or preferable to President Trump’s agenda more than not. Actually, too in June of 2016, Candidate Trump had issued a statement noting that his remarks about Mr. Curiel were misconstrued.

Judge Curiel’s ruling about the border wall was in response to a lawsuit brought by the State of California, arguing that the wall would violate environmental laws. However, the judge’s ruling did not go with the will of the State, and instead has fast-tracked several operations, including the waiver of some 30 building laws and environmental restrictions for the building of prototype walls outside San Diego, and also approval to replace 18 miles of existing barriers.

The US Justice Department hailed the Judge’s ruling on February 27th, emphasizing that border security is an issue of paramount importance.

And in typical fashion, President Trump himself weighed in:

So, this was probably a bit of a shock for the MSM press, but a welcome victory for the Trump agenda, which appears to be gaining steam as successes begin to build upon one another.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/2BUDS4O Tyler Durden

Gartman Is Short Again

Ahead of yesterday plunge in the market, which saw the Dow Jones close at sessions lows, down 300 points with the S&P wiping out Monday’s rally, Gartman appeared to have given algos the all clear to short when as we reported having covered his “market short” just one two days earlier, Gartman was now “modestly net long of equity on balance.”

This was clearly a warning for the bulls, and a greenlight for the bears: after all, the only thing that matters in this market is the “world-renowned commodity guru” Dennis Gartman.

Well, fast forward just a few hours, when we have not only more bad news for the bears (and conversely, great news for bulls), but also an explanation why stocks are set to open well in the green: Gartman is back to a “severely net short position.”  No really.

From the latest Gartman letter:

Clearly we have wanted to be bearish of equities for the past several weeks, having sold the global equity market short two weeks ago on the first rally from the low. We were wrong; the market, globally, moved against us, although it did so on waning, not rising volume. We were short because we were convinced that the economic strength in global terms… and especially in terms of the US market… was running into one very real problem: the fuel that had been  supplied to equities in the form of reserves created by the monetary authorities was being reduced even at the time when the demand for plant/equipment and labor was high and rising. Historically, the great bear markets always begin in the weeks and perhaps months before the economies in question turn from good to ill, for stock market are anticipatory in nature, rising before economies turn up and falling before they turn lower. We are at the latter turning point.

Note then how swiftly the volume advanced yesterday, sufficiently to break through the downward sloping trend line drawn across the tops of the volume figures. This was not just happenstance; this was and is fact and attention… very, very serious and bearish attention… must be paid.

Regarding our retirement account, we came into yesterday marginally net long but we were so only by being long of the shares of the largest independent bank in Tidewater, Virginia and by being long of the shares of a business development company and the shares of an energy trust, both of which were bought for their dividends primarily. We began the day long of small position in gold, and we’d hedged those positions with derivatives sufficient, we thought, to have us only very marginally long; however, as the day ended we increased our short derivatives position sufficient in size to have us end marginally net short.

And the punchline:

It is our intention to add to our derivatives position and to reduce our long positions on any… modest… strength in the equity market today, sufficient to take us to a rather more severely net short position. This is the hardest thing one can do in one’s investing/trading life: to have been right; to have been stopped out and to be forced to return to the original position at prices markedly worse, but we’ve really no choice.

Time to buy.

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Frontrunning: February 28

  • Dick’s Raises Age for Gun Buyers, Won’t Sell Assault Weapons (WSJ)
  • How Defective Guns Became the Only Product That Can’t Be Recalled (BBG)
  • The First Day of School After Florida Shooting (WSJ)
  • NFL Partners With Pizza Hut After Split With Papa John’s (WSJ)
  • Manafort Joined Trump as Ukraine Work Dried Up (BBG)
  • Summers Warns Next U.S. Recession Could Outlast Previous One (BBG)
  • GM Is Raking In the Cash (BBG)
  • Goldman Sachs, Adviser to the Elite, Wants to Be Your Local Bank (WSJ)
  • U.S. regulators examine Wall Street’s Volcker rule wish list (Reuters)
  • State Health Policies Show Stark Divide Along Party Lines (WSJ)
  • In Syria, Foreign Powers’ Scramble for Influence Intensifies (WSJ)
  • Mogul Is $13 Billion Richer After Leaving NYC for China (BBG)
  • China’s military flexes muscles for domestic objective: more funding (Reuters)
  • Lowe’s Punished by Investors for Not Growing Like Home Depot (BBG)
  • Cyprus’s Anastasiades says no peace talks as natgas standoff persists (Reuters)
  • Big Short’s Eisman Says U.S. Bank Outlook Is Best Since 1990s (BBG)
  • Forecasts for Oil Prices Rise for Fifth-Straight Month (WSJ)
  • Musk’s Dream of Space-Based Internet Sent Others Crashing to Earth (BBG)
  • Bayer to win EU approval for $62.5 billion Monsanto deal (Reuters)

Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

– Amazon.com Inc acquired Ring, maker of video doorbells, in a deal valued at more than $1 billion, giving the online giant a bigger foothold in the burgeoning internet business of home security. on.wsj.com/2HQ7KzX

– The White House downgraded the security clearance of senior adviser Jared Kushner last week as part of White House chief of staff John Kelly’s push to tighten control of classified information inside the Trump administration. on.wsj.com/2HSCWhS

– Senior White House adviser Jared Kushner’s spokesman Josh Raffel is leaving the White House, administration officials said Tuesday, becoming the latest official to depart the West Wing. on.wsj.com/2HS9NU7

– The Trump administration said it has reached an initial deal with Boeing Co to buy and convert two jumbo jets to replace the aging planes that fly as Air Force One. on.wsj.com/2HRriUj

– North Korea shipped 50 tons of supplies to Syria for use in building what is suspected to be an industrial-scale chemical weapons factory, according to intelligence information cited in a confidential United Nations report. on.wsj.com/2HRs0Rt

 

FT

– Michel Barnier, EU’s top Brexit negotiator, hit out at David Davis for avoiding talks in Brussels. Barnier told EU27 ministers in Brussels that the talks were “in a form of stagnation”.

– U.S. cable operator Comcast Corp made a surprise bid for Sky Plc that values it at 22.1 billion pounds. Buying Sky would give it a powerful footprint in the UK, Germany and Italy, where Sky has 23 million subscribers.

– Standard Chartered Plc, after two years of capital rebuilding, restarted its dividend as the bank returns to profit.

– Provident Financial Plc’s shares soared on Tuesday as the sub-prime lender tapped investors for 300 mln pounds in fresh funds via a rights issue and announced a lower than expected settlement with the Financial Conduct Authority.

 

NYT

– Jared Kushner, President Donald Trump’s adviser and son-in-law, lost his top-secret clearance, a White House official and another person familiar with the situation said. nyti.ms/2ovrnFd

– Companies like Delta Air Lines Inc have found themselves facing conservative backlash as they become mired in the gun control debate, highlighting the challenge of catering to both ends of the U.S. political spectrum. nyti.ms/2FdfRbm

– Amazon.com Inc said Tuesday that it had acquired Ring, a maker of internet-connected doorbells and cameras, pushing more deeply into the home security market. nyti.ms/2ovyiOJ

– Comcast Corp may have found a way to disrupt Walt Disney Co’s plan to buy most of Twenty-First Century Fox Inc by topping Fox’s bid to buy the British satellite broadcaster Sky Plc with its own $31 billion takeover offer. nyti.ms/2CLEias

– Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, in his first public appearance as head of the U.S. central bank, said his expectations for domestic economic growth have increased since the beginning of the year, citing the passage of the $1.5 trillion tax cut and stronger global growth. nyti.ms/2t46ZQc

 

Canada

THE GLOBE AND MAIL
** The federal government says it is open to granting charitable status to media companies, which would allow them to receive tax-deductible donations to support investigative and public-interest journalism. tgam.ca/2CsaUdG

** Canada’s top securities regulator is turning up the heat on a small Ontario marijuana producer after it failed to disclose to investors that its chief executive officer is under investigation for his actions at another company. tgam.ca/2GSu62p

** B.C. is suspending rules for its money-losing public auto insurer that are designed to ensure it has enough capital to make payouts, raising the prospect that the government will have to bail it out. tgam.ca/2oASHRG

NATIONAL POST
** The small business tax revolt that rocked Canadian politics for much of last year has resulted in a simpler and scaled-back proposal for taxing passive investment income, and it appears likely to calm the concerns from tax experts. bit.ly/2EYpBqr

 

Britain

The Times

– Cities in Germany have been given the green light to ban older diesel cars in a court ruling likely to have a far-reaching impact on resale values and the fuel’s long-term future. bit.ly/2GOuhM0

– Smaller British development agencies have dismissed 67 aid workers and other staff for sexual misconduct. Figures supplied to the Times by 11 overseas aid charities showed that they had dealt with 120 cases of sexual exploitation or harassment. bit.ly/2GOt6fv

The Guardian

– Comcast Corp is attempting to gatecrash Rupert Murdoch’s takeover of Sky Plc, submitting a rival offer to the UK broadcaster’s shareholders worth about 22 billion pounds ($30.59 billion). bit.ly/2GPnaD4

The Telegraph

– Britain’s demand for gas is set to surge to its highest level in over six years this week as freezing temperatures take hold across the country. bit.ly/2GMXcQM

– The government must share the blame for the bungling of a multi-billion pound nuclear clean-up contract after failing to protect taxpayers from spiralling costs, MPs have said. bit.ly/2GPAG9G

Sky News

– Nearly 6,000 retail sector jobs are hanging in the balance on Tuesday night as the UK arm of Toys R Us and electricals chain Maplin prepare to call in administrators. bit.ly/2GOupeF

– Liam Fox has defended the government’s Brexit plans by saying UK’s departure from the European Union is “a little bit more complicated than a packet of Walkers”. bit.ly/2GP5Oq5

The Independent

– Beer sold across UK’s supermarkets and off-licences is almost 188 percent more affordable today than it was three decades ago, supporting calls for greater legislation to relieve pressure on health services, new research has revealed. ind.pn/2GLKcuD

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