After a second consecutive disappointing cash session close, in which futures spiked at the open only to close at the lows, we are set for day 3 as S&P index futures again point to a sharply higher open after Asian stock gains despite some mixed trading in Europe. Will they once again fade what is set to be a 150 point higher open in the Dow and if so, will we finally see selling next week?
What is most surprising about the overnight session is how little attention the market paid the the collapse and bailout of Chinese’ mega conglomerate and offshore M&A titan, insurer Anbang Insurance, which as we reported last night was effectively nationalized. A quick recap for those who missed it:
When New York’s Waldorf Astoria hotel was sold for $1.95 billion in 2014, it shot the Chinese buyer – Anbang Insurance Group Co. – and its chairman Wu Xiaohui to international prominence. That was the first deal in a $13.4 billion acquisition spree that lifted Anbang’s profile while raising questions about its ownership and financing. Those questions only deepened after Wu was detained last year by Chinese authorities investigating the firm’s acquisitions funding, market manipulation by insurers and unspecified “economic crimes.” Now, Wu is being prosecuted and China’s insurance regulator is taking over the company.
And yet, despite this critical development, which effectively confirms that China’s conglomerates are insolvent, the Shanghai Composite closed in the green and S&P futures are well well bid.
Commenting on the market’s bizarre reaction, Stock-market gains in China and Hong Kong today provide a fairly revealing insight into the market’s view of Xi Jinping’s policies. Gone are the days when something like the seizure of insurer Anbang would rattle investors, when every yuan fixing was highly anticipated and when fears of leverage, inflated property prices or military activity in the South China Sea were at the back of everyone’s minds.
Now, something like Anbang is being seen as a positive. When I talk about China with investors these days, the perspective is a lot more positive. The belt and road initiative is viewed favorably, as are the efforts to get debt under control.
Maybe… or maybe China’s halting the local VIX yesterday was an indication that something big was coming. And what better way to prevent panic from spreading than blocking the one indicator measuring panic. Although Bloomberg’s point is noted: in China, there was no panic; maybe that’s because in China there is also no longer a market?
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In any case, back to the rest of the world, where the Stoxx Europe 600 Index edged lower as declines in car makers offset gains in telecom shares. n. terms of sector specific moves, telecoms are the clear outperformer with BT Group (BT/A LN) shares at the top of the FSTE 100 following a positive broker upgrade at Berenberg. The biggest story in the UK equity space comes from RBS (-4.5%) who are one of the notable laggards in the FSTE 100 as a return to profit for the Co. was not enough to soothe investor concerns over restructuring costs and a lack of clarity from the DoJ investigation. Other notable movers include Valeo (-9.5%), IAG (-4.7%), Swiss Re (+1.8%) and Pearson (+1.1%) post-earnings, while Standard Life Aberdeen (+2.2%) have been granted some reprieve after offloading their insurance unit to Phoenix (+5.4%).
Asia was decidedly more bullish, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rising 1%, underpinned by gains in Tokyo, Hong Kong, Sydney and Seoul equity markets. The Nikkei 225 (+0.7%) edged higher with the gains led by defensive stocks with investors seemingly content to shrug off the notion of a more aggressive Fed unwinding stimulus more rapidly than expected. Chinese markets had been positive for much of the session with the Hang Seng (+1%), while the Shanghai Comp (+0.6%) had a somewhat choppy session. JGB yields dipped overnight, with the curve modestly flatter.
As noted above, US equity futures seemed to forget Thursday’s pitiful close and spiked ahead of the European open, only to fade most of the gains: the E-mini was up +7 at last check, but back to bottom of overnight range, as European equity markets led lower. It seems one piece of bad news today and the house of cards could topple for the 3rd consecutive day.
Indeed, as Bloomberg notes markets have been creeping into risk-off mode across the board; sentiment not helped by a sudden GBP clash crash cited to incorrect trade value.
Elsewhere, credit spreads continue widen, iTraxx Crossover back within range of widest levels seen during VIX-related volatility. USD holds small gains; apart from sharp GBP move, most pairs stay in tight range. SEK weaker after Riksbank minutes highlight inflation worries.
Yields on Treasury 10-year notes fell, though were still near their highest since 2014, while those on German bunds, the benchmark for European debt, dropped to the lowest since January, while the common currency slipped.
The dollar came under pressure following the Tokyo fix, in a repeat of Thursday’s price action. The greenback’s correlation with U.S. yields seems to be back, as Treasuries extended recent gains with the 10-year yield steadying around 2.9%. Volumes were below recent averages in the majors, with unwinds of short-term positions in typical Friday fashion.
In bunds, flows spiked after futures broke the 159 threshold. European stock markets traded mixed and commodities retreated.
In the commodities complex, WTI and Brent crude futures have seen a mild pullback from yesterday’s post-DoE surge, albeit in close proximity to yesterday’s best levels. Energy newsflow remains light with traders awaiting today’s Baker Hughes release which has recently seen a trend of climbing rig counts. In metals markets, gold prices are marginally softer alongside the firmer USD and remains on track for its worst weekly performance since late last year. Elsewhere, Chinese steel futures staged a rebound overnight as traders eye a potential pick-up in demand next week as Chinese participants fully return to market.
US is said to announce new sanctions on North Korea later today, according to sources. Federal Reserve releases semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress. Fed officials John Williams, Bill Dudley and Eric Rosengren speak. European Central Bank Executive Board member Benoit Coeure and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester participate in panel discussion.
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 2,718.00
- STOXX Europe 600 up 0.02% to 380.42
- MSCI Asia Pacific up 1% to 177.79
- MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan up 1.1% to 582.45
- Nikkei up 0.7% to 21,892.78
- Topix up 0.8% to 1,760.53
- Hang Seng Index up 1% to 31,267.17
- Shanghai Composite up 0.6% to 3,289.02
- Sensex up 1% to 34,149.05
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.8% to 5,999.79
- Kospi up 1.5% to 2,451.52
- German 10Y yield fell 2.5 bps to 0.681%
- Euro down 0.2% to $1.2312
- Brent Futures down 0.5% to $66.07/bbl
- Italian 10Y yield rose 2.5 bps to 1.805%
- Spanish 10Y yield rose 7.6 bps to 1.594%
- Brent Futures down 0.5% to $66.07/bbl
- Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,328.59
- U.S. Dollar Index up 0.1% to 89.85
Top Overnight News
- China Seizes Anbang, Charges Dealmaking Founder With Fraud; Billions of Dollars of Anbang Assets That Could Go on the Block
- U.S. regulators are scrutinizing this month’s implosion of investments that track stock-market turmoil, including whether wrongdoing contributed to steep losses for VIX exchange-traded products offered by Credit Suisse Group AG and other firms, several people familiar with the matter said
- The Trump administration plans to announce on Friday what is said to be the largest package of sanctions against North Korea, Reuters says, citing a senior govt official it didn’t identify
- The Trump administration’s policies will raise U.S. wages without causing broader inflation, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said in an interview, brushing aside signs that investors are growing nervous about rising prices
- Japan’s key inflation gauge stalled at 0.9%, highlighting the challenge ahead for BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda as he starts another five-year term.
- The European Union is set to oppose turning Theresa May’s pledge to avoid a border in the Irish Sea after Brexit into a legal guarantee, according to a diplomat familiar with the matter; Prime Minister Theresa May gathered her top ministers for an eight-hour session to get them to back her Brexit strategy, as the European Commission preempted the outcome by saying that what it’s heard of her plan won’t work.
- Barnaby Joyce quit as Australia’s deputy prime minister after having an extramarital affair with his former media adviser.
- President Xi Jinping will convene a Communist Party meeting within days to select China’s next government.
- ECB’s Smets says the events we’ve seen in the past few weeks are unlikely to affect the economic fundamentals, which are sound, on condition political leaders stay the course and continue to enact policies that are adequate for their own economies
- U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May won the backing of her divided Brexit “war cabinet” to ask for an ambitious trade deal with the European Union after a marathon eight-hour meeting at her country house, but the EU isn’t buying it
Asian equities closed the week on a positive note as major bourses traded in the green amid the uptick in crude prices. ASX 200 (+0.8%) had been buoyed by energy and material names, moving within closing just shy of 6,000. Miners were led by BHP (+1.5%) and South 32 (+5%), while oil prices rose throughout the US session after the latest DoE crude inventory data showed US oil output had dropped. Elsewhere, the Nikkei 225 (+0.7%) edged higher with the gains led by defensive stocks with investors seemingly content to shrug off the notion of a more aggressive Fed unwinding stimulus more rapidly than expected. Chinese markets had been positive for much of the session with the Hang Seng (+1%), while the Shanghai Comp (+0.6%) had a somewhat choppy session. JGB yields dipped overnight, with the curve modestly flatter. Japanese inflation data:
- Japanese CPI, Ex Food and Energy YY (Jan) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.3%)
- Japanese CPI, Core Nationwide YY (Jan) 0.9% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. 0.9%)
- Japanese CPI, Overall Nationwide (Jan) 1.4% vs. Exp. 1.3% (Prev. 1.0%); Highest since March 2015
Top Asian News
- As Volatility Returns, This Is How Emerging Markets Stack Up
- Hong Kong Moves Closer to Dual-Class Shares With New Rules
- India Is Said to Plan Asking PNB to Pay Banks for Jeweler Fraud
European bourses are trading on the back foot (Eurostoxx 50 -0.3%) despite calls for a slightly firmer open. In terms of sector specific moves, telecoms are the clear outperformer with BT Group (BT/A LN) shares at the top of the FSTE 100 following a positive broker upgrade at Berenberg. However, the biggest story in the UK equity space comes from RBS (-4.5%) who are one of the notable laggards in the FSTE 100 as a return to profit for the Co. was not enough to soothe investor concerns over restructuring costs and a lack of clarity from the DoJ investigation. Other notable movers include Valeo (-9.5%), IAG (-4.7%), Swiss Re (+1.8%) and Pearson (+1.1%) post-earnings, while Standard Life Aberdeen (+2.2%) have been granted some reprieve after offloading their insurance unit to Phoenix (+5.4%).
Top European News
- May’s Cabinet Backs the Brexit Plan the EU Is Poised to Reject
- RBS’s Female Employees Paid 37% Less on Average Than Men
- Riksbank Inflation Caution Sends Krona to 15-Month Low
- Bund Futures Jump in Large Volumes After Breaking Key Threshold
- What to Watch for in Gadgets, Deals From the Biggest Mobile Show
In FX, the DXY has slipped further below the 90.000 level, and it remains a very close call whether the Greenback can continue its recent ‘winning’ run to make it 5 out of 5 trading days and a first complete week of gains this year. Technically, the index needs to close above 90.500-600, so quite a bit above the upper end of the 90.060-89.750 range thus far, and much may depend on the overall tone that emerges from the latest round of Fed rhetoric via a slew of speakers and Powell’s first semi-annual monetary policy report. However, Usd/Jpy still looks pivotal for the Dollar’s overall direction with the pair now heavy around 107.00 having failed to rebound to 108.00 at the height of its rebound from 105.55 lows. Note also, a large 107.00 option expiry strike for next Monday (1.6 bn) may act like an anchor. Eur/Usd straddles 1.2300, with no reaction to final Eurozone CPI and Cable continues to be drawn towards 1.4000 while holding in above solid support ahead of 1.3800 on Brexit-related weakness (similarly 0.8800 is a pivot in Eur/Gbp). In terms of crosses, Eur/Sek has been a mover in wake of cautious and dovish Riksbank minutes as several Board members registered concerns about weak inflation at the January policy meeting, and the pair has eclipsed the 10.0333 peak from 2017, with the previous year’s high at 10.0833 next on the charts. Back to G10s, the Nzd gained little lasting traction from better NZ retail sales overnight, with a breakdown revealing discretionary items providing a major boost, and Aud/Nzd stop-buying also working against the Kiwi.
In the commodities complex, WTI and Brent crude futures have seen a mild pullback from yesterday’s post-DoE surge, albeit in close proximity to yesterday’s best levels. Energy newsflow remains light with traders awaiting today’s Baker Hughes release which has recently seen a trend of climbing rig counts. In metals markets, gold prices are marginally softer alongside the firmer USD and remains on track for its worst weekly performance since late last year. Elsewhere, Chinese steel futures staged a rebound overnight as traders eye a potential pick-up in demand next week as Chinese participants fully return to market.
Looking at the day ahead, there is the final revisions to Q4 GDP in Germany and also the final revisions to January CPI in the Euro area. The Fed’s Williams, Mester and Dudley are due to speak, along with the ECB’s Coeure. Away from that, EU leaders are scheduled to hold an informal meeting in Brussels to discuss the composition of the European Parliament and also the bloc’s next budget. Finally the Fed is expected to publish its semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress.
US Event Calendar
- Nothing major scheduled
- 10:15am: Fed’s Dudley and Rosengren Speak on Panel on Fed Balance Sheet
- 11am: Fed Releases February 2018 Monetary Policy Report to Congress
- 1:30pm: ECB’s Coeure, Fed’s Mester Participate in Panel in New York
- 3:40pm: Fed’s Williams Speaks on Outlook for U.S. Economy
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap.
Markets lacked a bit of leadership yesterday as the S&P 500 couldn’t hang onto 1% gains for the second day but just about ended higher (+0.1%). It appears the initial gains were spurred by a rebound in the WTI oil price (+1.77%) and the Fed’s Bullard’s more dovish words on the rates outlook. He told CNBC that raising rates too quickly could restrict economic growth and that market expectations of four rate hikes this year would be “priced to perfection”. Further he added “100bp (rate increase) in 2018 seems a lot to me” while there was a “way to go” in terms of sustainable upward move on inflation. Within the S&P, gains were led by the real estate, energy and materials sectors with partial offsets from financials. The VIX fell for the second day to 18.72 (-6.5%).
Staying in the US, Matt Luzzetti and others in the US economics team published an update to DB’s analysis that looks at the parallels between the current period and the 1960s in the US. This is work we’ve often referred to in our work. Similar to today, inflation was subdued for a protracted period during the first half of the 1960s even as the unemployment rate fell sharply. Inflation then jumped in 1966.
Recent developments – most importantly a replay of the 1960s fiscal expansion – have increased the similarities with the 1960s episode. Their updated analysis suggests that while we are unlikely to see a spike in inflation as large as the 1960s, the risks around DB’s inflation view are likely titled to the upside. As such, we would not downplay the possibility that core inflation hits 2.5% or above in the coming years, exceeding the last cycle’s peak and rising to the highest level since the early 1990s.
Turning back to Europe and the latest ECB minutes. They broadly reiterated a wait and see approach. On rates, the minutes indicated “changes in communication were generally seen to be premature” and that “monetary policy would continue to develop….with a view to avoiding abruptly or disorderly adjustments at a later stage”. On QE, “some members expressed a preference for dropping the easing bias…but it was concluded that such adjustment was premature”. On FX, “there was broad agreement among members that the recent volatility in…..the Euro was a source of uncertainty that required monitoring”. Looking ahead, “the language pertaining to the monetary policy stance could be revisited early this year as part of the regular assessment at the forthcoming policy meetings”.
Over in government bonds, core 10y bonds yields were 1-3bp lower while peripherals modestly underperformed (1-3bp higher), in part reversing the prior day’s gains. 10y Bunds and Gilts yields fell 1.6bp and 0.9bp respectively while UST 10y also fell 2.9bp. Elsewhere, the US treasury sold $29bn of 7 year notes at a yield of 2.839% with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.49x (vs. 2.73x previous).
This morning in Asia, markets are in positive territory with the Kospi (+1.23%), Hang Seng (+0.89%), Nikkei (+0.71%) and China’s CSI 300 (+0.02%) all up as we type. Datawise, Japan’s January core CPI (ex-food) was above expectations at 0.9% yoy (vs. 0.8%) but flat for the third consecutive month. Staying with inflation, the US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has discussed prices overnight and believes rising US wage gains may not cause broader inflation. He noted that “you can have wage inflation and not necessarily have inflation concerns in general”.
Now recapping other markets performance from yesterday. Key European bourses weakened modestly, with the Stoxx 600 (-0.20%), DAX (-0.07%) and FTSE (-0.40%) all lower. In FX, the US dollar index fell for the first time in five days (-0.28%), while the Euro and Sterling gained 0.37% and 0.27% respectively. Over reiterated that three rate hikes seems appropriate but his views could change if there was greater evidence of rising inflation or employment. Elsewhere, he noted “the Fed’s policy is accommodative, but the path to neutral may be flatter and not as far away as some think”. Finally, the Fed’s Quarles noted “with a strong labour market and likely only temporary softness in inflation, I view it as appropriate that monetary policy should continue to be gradually normalized.”
Back in Europe and ahead of the Italian election on 4thMarch, the EC President Juncker warned “we have to brace ourselves for the worst scenario….(which) could be no operational government” and that he was “more worried by the result of Italian election than the result of the vote by SPD members” in Germany. Later on in a statement, he did softened his message and noted “whatever the outcome, I’m confident that we’ll have a government that makes sure that Italy remains a central player in Europe”.
Staying in politics, the Times reported that the UK may allow EU citizens who arrives during the Brexit transition period to stay permanently. Elsewhere, before PM May outlines her vision for a post-Brexit trade deal, a presentation on the European Commission website has reiterated the potential difficulties she faces with the stance her cabinet seem to be moving towards. It noted the “UK’s views on regulatory issues in the future relationship including the three basket approach are not compatible with the principles in the EC guidelines”.
Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. In the US, the January Conference board leading index was above market at 1% (vs. 0.7% expected) with large positive contributions from the firming of the ISM new orders index and building permits in the month. The Kansas Fed manufacturing index was slightly below at 17 (vs. 18 expected).
Elsewhere, the weekly continuing claims (1,875k vs. 1,935k expected) and initial jobless claims (222k vs. 230k expected) were both below expectations, with the latter near a c44 year low and adds to the view that the labour market is tightening further.
In Germany, the February IFO Business Climate Index fell to 115.4 from its record high in January (117.6). The drop was driven by a fall in business current assessment (126.3 vs. 127 expected) and the expectations index (105.4 vs. 107.9 expected). Overall DB’s Marc Schattenberg believes a pull-back was not surprising and the sentiment surveys are still at very high levels, signaling a continued strong economic expansion in Q1. In France, the February manufacturing confidence (112 vs. 113 expected) and business confidence (109 vs. 110 expected) were both softer than expectations. The final reading of France’s January CPI was unrevised at 1.5% yoy, while Italy’s print was revised 0.1ppt higher to 1.2% yoy. Finally, the UK’s 4Q GDP was revised down 0.1ppt to 0.4% qoq and 1.4% yoy (vs 1.5% expected).
Looking at the day ahead, there is the final revisions to Q4 GDP in Germany and also the final revisions to January CPI in the Euro area. The Fed’s Williams, Mester and Dudley are due to speak, along with the ECB’s Coeure. Away from that, EU leaders are scheduled to hold an informal meeting in Brussels to discuss the composition of the European Parliament and also the bloc’s next budget. Finally the Fed is expected to publish its semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress.
via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/2EOONLW Tyler Durden
