zerohedge – Page 18332

No CapEx Recovery: Durable Goods Disappoint As Capital Goods Orders And Shipments Decline

Back in April 2012, before the topic of the Capital Expenditures crunch was even touched by the mainstream media, we penned “How The Fed’s Visible Hand Is Forcing Corporate Cash Mismanagement” in which we explained why as a result of faulty Fed policy corporations are dumping all their excess cash in dividends and buybacks, and which “means far less cash left for SG&A, i.e., hiring workers, as temp workers is the best that the current “recovering” economy apparently can do. It also means far, far less cash for CapEx spending. Which ultimately means a plunging profit margin due to decrepit assets no longer performing at their peak levels, and in many cases far worse.” Since then, virtually everyone has jumped on the “lack of CapEx” bandwagon. Alas, in today’s Durable Goods report we got yet another confirmation that over a year and a half ago we were once more right: there is simply no capex growth in the Fed’s centrally-planned New Normal.

While the Census Bureau disclosed that headline Durable Goods declined in October by 2.0% (and much more on an unadjusted basis), this was in line with expectations, and was driven by an unexpected -15.9% collapse in new aircraft orders, driven by Boeing which had a 60% drop in orders, down from 127 to only 79 for the month. However, the big surprise was in the ex-transport durable goods number, which declined by -0.1%, crushing expectations of a 0.5% increase and down from last month’s revised +0.2%. In other words, the modest rebound in orders in late summer now appears to have been purely a function of channel stuffing, which now has to work its way through the system, as manufacturing with unfilled orders dropped by a whopping -3.1%.

The sharp downward inflection point in both sets of order books can be seen clearly in the two charts below:

It will get much worse in November if there is no pick up in orders as the Y/Y will once again trend down to the unpleasant 0% number.

But the punchline was in the Core CapEx data set: the Capital Goods orders non-defense ex transports, which shocked everyone by dropping -1.2%, once again leaving the consensus estimate of a 0.8% increase hanging, and is the fifth consecutive miss in a row!

Finally, the capex shipments also declined by -0.2%, putting a nail on all those stories which predicted, as they do every year, that this year will finally be the year in which US corporate capex spending picks up. It did not. And 2014 will be no different either, when dividends and buybacks dominate, to the detriment of actual investment in labor and the long-run. Thank you activist investors.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/hZBafEjdfpY/story01.htm Tyler Durden

"Clean" Initial Claims Drop To Lowest In 2 Months

Initial claims fell 10k from last week’s revised (and missing 5 states) data for its biggest beat in 2 months and lowest print in 2 months. The ‘consistent’ YoY ebbing of the initial claims print (aside from the last month or so’s statistical glitches and idiocy) is all too predictable and the market simply shrugged as the claims data remains the least correlated to any sense of employment reality of all jobs data. This is the first supposedly “clean” data with no estimates in 2 months, however, the BLS is quick to point out that “claims are difficult to seasonally adjust during holidays” – so another pinch of salt for this data point.

but ‘it’s different this time’ and not structural at all…

Still think the claims data has anything useful to say about the economic progress the US is making?

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/4JdFLlLTnIk/story01.htm Tyler Durden

“Clean” Initial Claims Drop To Lowest In 2 Months

but ‘it’s different this time’ and not structural at all…

Still think the claims data has anything useful to say about the economic progress the US is making?

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/4JdFLlLTnIk/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Iran Seizes Saudi Fishing Vessels, Arrests 9 Sailors

It didn’t take long to escalate Iran-Saudi relations, or the lack thereof, following this weekend’s nuclear (non) deal. Moments ago Iran’s Fars news agency reported that Iran’s coast guards have seized two Saudi fishing vessels after they entered the Islamic Republic’s territorial waters, a provincial official announced on Wednesday. “Yesterday, the coast guards deployed in the country’s Southern waters came to spot two vessels in Iran’s protected waters in the South using electronic and optic tools and equipment,” Commander of Bushehr province Coast Guards Qalandar Lashkari said. He said that the Iranian coast guards rushed to the scene and were faced with two vessels which were illegally fishing in the Iranian waters under the Saudi flag.

It was not immediately clear if, as in the case of China’s air defense zone, the US promptly decided to drive a battleship in Iran’s territorial waters, just because it can. However, the Saudi response will certainly be just as acute.

Noting that 9 sailors were arrested thereafter, Lashkari said further investigation showed that the 9 people are nationals of different countries.

Also earlier this year, forces of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)’s second naval zone seized another Saudi vessel and its four-strong crew after it illegally entered Iranian waters. The vessel was later expelled.

In a relevant event on January 3, Saudi Arabia detained 21 Iranian nationals who were aboard two boats near al-Harqus Island 42 miles (78 km) off the Saudi coast, the Saudi border guard said.

We may need before an Israeli boat is arrested, and mysteriously blows up, before the middle-east returns to its wild type irrational, militant state.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/QFaZf2-H5CU/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Frontrunning: November 27

Winter storm lashes eastern U.S., threatens Thanksgiving travel (Reuters)
Fed Reveals New Concerns About Long-Term U.S. Slowdown (BBG)
Private equity keeps $789bn of powder dry (FT) – because they are “selling everything that is not nailed down”
Merkel and SPD clinch coalition deal two months after vote (Reuters)
Japan approves new state secrecy bill to combat leaks (BBC)
CLOs are the new black: Volatile Loan Securities Are Luring Fund Managers Again (WSJ)
Health website deadline nears (WSJ)
Norway Debates $800 Billion Wealth Fund’s Investment Options (BBG)
Set of global trade deals stalls (WSJ)
Berlusconi To Learn Fate In Senate (Sky)
Silvio Berlusconi withdraws support from Italy’s government (FT)
Thai Politician Leads Protesters to Defy Government (WSJ)
Iran Deal Ripples Felt From Syria War Zones to Saudi Palaces (BBG)
Iran opens contacts with oil groups (FT)
Soccer World Cup Stadium Costs Soar by $435 Million in Brazil (BBG)

Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

* The Obama administration is moving to rein in the influence of tax-exempt groups in elections by creating rules to restrict their spending on a wide range of campaign-related activities.

* Cox Communications is considering jumping into the bidding for Time Warner Cable Inc according to people familiar with the situation, the latest twist in a fast-evolving takeover battle for the second-largest U.S. cable operator.

* Men’s Wearhouse Inc launched a surprise offer to buy rival men’s clothing retailer Jos. A. Bank Clothiers Inc turning the tables on its erstwhile suitor in what has become one of the year’s most colorful takeover dramas.

* Hewlett-Packard Co appeared to take a step forward in its latest turnaround effort with increased sales of corporate computers. But fiscal fourth-quarter revenue fell in each of its other units, highlighting ongoing challenges at the tech giant.

* After setting a deadline to fix the HealthCare.gov website, Obama administration officials have offered largely inexact measures of success. That has prompted Republicans to accuse the White House of moving the goal posts.

* Jon Horvath, the government’s star witness against Michael Steinberg, testified for the first time Tuesday, setting the stage for what will be pivotal testimony in the insider-trading case against the veteran SAC Capital Advisors LP portfolio manager.

* Vivendi SA’s board approved a plan to spin off its French telecommunication business next year and named top leaders to run the assets that will remain, pushing forward with its ambition to become a smaller media-focused firm.

* Investment funds aimed at individual investors are barreling into collateralized loan obligations, a complex and volatile type of security that was shaken by the financial crisis.

* The U.S. banking industry continued its recovery during the third quarter, reflecting the sector’s gradual rebound from the financial crisis, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp said.

Research group Preqin’s data shows that private equity firms are holding more cash for acquisitions and the value of unspent commitments to private equity funds has increased 12 percent since December 2012.

British Prime Minister David Cameron announced a crackdown on European Union immigration and said Europe has to reform to regain trust of its people.

The Serious Fraud Office may probe Royal Bank of Scotland under charges of criminal offence for systematically crushing smaller companies by forcing them out of business.

German power company RWE on Tuesday axed the 4 billion pound Atlantic Array project raising concerns over mixed signals that the UK energy policy was sending out to investors.

Spanish oil company Repsol has in principle agreed to accept a compensation of 5 billion pounds to settle dispute iver Argentine government’s seizure of its majority stake in YPF, according to sources.

Job search portal Adzuna says an upturn in construction has boosted vacancies in the south, making nine cities out of ten in southern England the best to get jobs.

NYT

* On Tuesday, Men’s Wearhouse abruptly turned the tables on Jos. A. Bank and bid $55 a share in cash to acquire its one-time suitor. It is rare for the prey to become the predator, a strategy that harks back to a 1980s corporate maneuver known as the Pac-Man defense.

* The star witness in the federal government’s insider trading prosecution of Michael Steinberg, once a senior trader at SAC Capital Advisors, told a federal jury on Tuesday why he was cooperating with prosecutors and testifying at the trial.

* The International Monetary Fund, convinced that Europe erred in forcing debtor countries like Greece and Portugal to bear nearly all the pain of recovery on their own, is pushing hard for a plan that would impose upfront losses on bondholders the next time a country in the euro area requests a bailout.

* The Securities and Exchange Commission announced a pair of enforcement actions on Tuesday, accusing Swiss company Weatherford International of bribery and a Detroit money market fund of fraud.

* Alfred Feld, the longest-serving employee at Goldman Sachs , with more than 80 years of service at the Wall Street bank, died on Monday in Palm Beach, Florida. He was 98. Feld was listed as a Goldman employee up until his death, although in recent years he came to work infrequently.

* Take-Two Interactive Software announced on Tuesday that it had bought back the stake held by Carl Icahn, compelling the resignations of three board members he was allowed to appoint.

* Applied Systems, a software company that focuses on the insurance industry, said on Tuesday that it had agreed to be acquired by the private equity firm Hellman & Friedman in a deal valued at $1.8 billion. The company is being acquired from Bain Capital, which purchased it for about $675 million in 2006.

* The Carlyle Group said on Tuesday that it would acquire the Diversified Global Asset Management Corporation, an independent hedge fund manager, the latest push by Carlyle into areas beyond its core leveraged-buyout bus
iness.

Canada

THE GLOBE AND MAIL

* Justin Trudeau is invoking the ghost of Jack Layton as he celebrates the Liberal Party’s strong showing in a series of by-elections, inflaming tensions with the New Democratic Party (NDP) and foreshadowing more negative politics between now and the 2015 general election.

* Higher mortgage rates and house prices have eroded the affordability of Canadian homes for the second quarter in a row. But the impact was largely confined to the markets for detached bungalows and single-family homes, which are becoming more of an unaffordable luxury in many parts of Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver, Royal Bank of Canada’s economics department suggests in a report to be released on Wednesday.

Reports in the business section:

* Sears Canada is laying off another 800 employees across its operations in the latest round of major cuts that have involved closing several of its highest profile department stores. The retailer said on Tuesday that most of the job losses would come from its repair parts and service business, where 712 staff are being eliminated over the next six months.

* While it continues to struggle in wealthier countries, BlackBerry Ltd is enjoying a surprising surge in Africa this year, offering a possible lesson in how the company could remain a competitive force in global markets with its cheaper devices.

NATIONAL POST

* An Ontario judge has ordered mercy for Martin McSweeney, the traumatized ex-boyfriend of Paul Bernardo victim Leslie Mahaffy, after the 38-year-old’s life descended into a legal nightmare that saw him lose his CSIS job and spend months in detention, all for allegedly sending an emotionally-charged message to his therapist.

* When all he wanted to do on Tuesday was raise his arms and hoist the C$5.2-billion ($4.9 billion) exclusive contract he had just announced with the NHL like it was a metaphorical Stanley Cup, Keith Pelley, president of Rogers Communications Inc’s media business, was peppered with questions about what the deal would mean for Canada’s media landscape.

FINANCIAL POST

* Real estate investment trusts, hampered by falling unit prices, have been squeezed out of the commercial property market over the last quarter by private investors, a new report shows.

China

CHINA SECURITIES JOURNAL

– The tax bureau of Shenzhen, a major southern Chinese city, said some property developers have dodged taxes by inflating expenses.

– Several investors, including private equity firm CDH, are interested in buying a strategic stake in real estate developer Greenland Group ahead of its planned Shanghai/Hong Kong dual listing.

CHINA DAILY

– Confucian thought, the basis of China’s education system for two millennia until the early 20th century, can still play a positive role in China’s development, President Xi Jinping said on a visit to the ancient sage’s hometown on Tuesday.

– There were over 69 million retirees (excluding civil servants) on the Chinese mainland by the end of 2012, according to data from the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security. This was nearly double the figure in 2003.

CHINA BUSINESS NEWS

– China Mobile Ltd will launch 4G services next month, and will launch a new brand specifically for 4G.

– Microsoft had ended its partnership with TOM Online and will launch Skype services in China with new partner Guangming Founder.

PEOPLE’S DAILY

– China’s legal students and lawyers must learn from studying the people in order to contribute to building a legally governed socialist nation, an editorial in the official paper said.

Fly On The Wall 7:00 AM Market Snapshot

ANALYST RESEARCH

Upgrades

HP (HPQ) upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Evercore
Isis Pharmaceuticals (ISIS) upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at Piper Jaffray
LATAM Airlines (LFL) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at BofA/Merrill
Pzena Investment (PZN) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan
UBS (UBS) upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital

Downgrades

Analog Devices (ADI) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Drexel Hamilton
Copa Holdings (CPA) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at UBS
Denny’s (DENN) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Janney Capital
Intel (INTC) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital
OGE Energy (OGE) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies
Signature Bank (SBNY) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Sterne Agee
TiVo (TIVO) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Evercore
Tilly’s (TLYS) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at William Blair
Tilly’s (TLYS) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman

Initiations

Altisource Residential (RESI) initiated with a Buy at Deutsche Bank
Cedar Fair (FUN) initiated with an Outperform at FBR Capital
Chimerix (CMRX) initiated with an Overweight at Piper Jaffray
GW Pharmaceuticals (GWPH) initiated with an Overweight at Piper Jaffray
Insmed (INSM) initiated with an Overweight at Piper Jaffray
Merchant Bancshares (MBVT) initiated with a Buy at Sterne Agee
Nektar (NKTR) initiated with an Overweight at Piper Jaffray
Oi S.A. (OIBR) initiated with an Outperform at Bernstein
Qunar (QUNR) initiated with a Hold at Deutsche Bank
Repros Therapeutics (RPRX) initiated with an Overweight at Piper Jaffray
Ruckus Wireless (RKUS) initiated with a Buy at Stifel
SeaWorld (SEAS) initiated with a Market Perform at FBR Capital
Six Flags (SIX) initiated with a Market Perform at FBR Capital

HOT STOCKS

HP (HPQ) CEO Whitman said turnaround remains on track heading into fiscal 2014
Burger King (BKW) established JV with Groupe Olivier Bertrand in France
Crocs (CROX) said to be in discussions with Blackstone (BX), other firms, Bloomberg reports
Archer Daniels (AADM) announced enhanced commitments for GrainCorp acquisition
GNC Holdings (GNC) announced $500M share repurchase authorization
CME Group (CME) sold NYMEX building to Brookfield Office (BPO) for $200M
Frontline (FRO) won’t pay a dividend for Q3

EARNINGS

Companies that beat consensus earnings expectations last night and today include:
Frontline (FRO), Shanda Games (GAME), AeroVironment (AVAV), Zale (ZLC), Infoblox (BLOX), Tilly’s (TLYS), HP (HPQ), TiVo (TIVO), Analog Devices (ADI)

NEWSPAPERS/WEBSITES

Amec is looking to acquire Foster Wheeler (FWLT), the London Times reports
Sinopec (SHI), China’s largest refiner, is in early talks with Apache (APA) to buy a minority stake in a LNG project called Kitmat on Canada’s Pacific coast, sources say, the Wall Street Journal reports
Amid all the talk about consumers moving away from old-school TV and towards streaming services, TiVo (TIVO) is still adding customers wanting to watch regular old TV, albeit with a digital twist. The company showed no signs of slowing growth in Q3 as it reported a big jump in subscriptions despite an increasing list of competitors, the Wall Street Journal reports
Danaher Corp. (DHR) and Blackstone Group (BX) are pursuing a joint bid for chemicals manufacturer Ashland’s (ASH) water technologies unit, sources say, in a deal that could top $1.5B, Reuters reports
Global banks and asset managers (GS, UBS) are opening hedge funds in Asia for the first time since the 2008 financial crisis, putting pressure on smaller firms that are already struggling to hold onto investors, Bloomberg reports
International anger over the NSA’s Internet surveillance is hurting global sales by American technology companies and setting back U.S. efforts to promote Internet freedom. Disclosures of spying abroad may cost U.S.
companies (IBM, INTC, AAPL, GOOG, CSCO) as much as $35B in lost revenue through 2016, Bloomberg reports

SYNDICATE

Acasti Pharma (ACST) files to sell common units and warrants
Global Brass & Copper (BRSS) files to sell 7.31M shares for holders
Pinnacle Foods (PF) files to sell 17M shares for holders

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/JcYx-sJbGYg/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Everyone Was Talking About A Stock Bubble… Just Before The Last Bubble Burst

One of the more painfully clueless observations made by pundits in recent weeks is that just because everyone is talking about a bubble, there can not possibly be a bubble.

Naturally, if one is tuned to only filter any bubble mentions, one will naturally have a cognitive bias of interpreting the world only through the eyes of “bubble watchers.” The flipside of course is that not everyone is a mindless member of the herd, rushing headlong into whatever precipice awaits lemmings just around the corner, and can still do simple math and recall what fundamentals looked like (as a reminder, forward multiples in 2007 looked very cheap too…before EPS for the S&P in 2008 plunged by over 50% which in retrospect would have made those forward multiples 100% higher).

But simple logic failure aside, what empirical evidence shows is that while there has been indeed a pick up in internet mentions of “stock bubble” according to Google Trends, it is still well below its prior high… hit in May 2007 and October 2007, just before and at the very peak of the last stock bubble.

We can only assume that the same pundits that somehow are getting airtime now, were the same ones who said in the summer of 2007 when the S&P had hit its prior, non-QE assisted all time high, that just because everyone is talking about a bubble there can’t possibly be a bubble…

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/a8j8mbf6GgI/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Goldman Reveals "Top Trade" Reco #3 For 2014, In Which Tom Stolper Goes Long The USDCAD

It’s one thing to fade broad Goldman trade recommendations (and thus trading alongside Goldman and against muppets). It is, however, a gift from god when such a trade comes from none other than the greatest (once again, if you bat 0.000 or 1.000 on Wall Street you are great in both cases) FX strategist of all time: Goldman’s Tom Stolper, whose fades over the past 5 years have generated over 20,000 outright pips. So what does Stolper see? “All told, there are a number of reasons why the Canadian Dollar has scope to weaken. Some of these have been a factor for some time but the notable weakening in the external balance, the gradual shift in the BoC communication and the prospect of Fed tapering and the associated risks all suggest that 2014 may be the year when the CAD weakens more materially after many years in narrow trading ranges. In line with our recently changed forecasts, we expect $/CAD to rally to 1.14 on a 12-month basis, with a stop on a close below 1.01. This would imply a potential return of 7% including carry.” So one Goldman 2014 Top Trade generates a total return of 7% in 12 months – and one should do this why when one can make 7% in the Russell 2000 at its current daily pace of increase of 1.0% in one week. That said, the only question is: 1.01 in how many days?

From Goldman:

Top Trade Recommendation #3: Long $/CAD on external deficits, tapering risks

A weak external position suggestive of a weakening CAD

Since the Global Financial Crisis, significant external imbalances have built up in the Canadian economy. In 2008, the current account balance fell from a surplus of 1% of GDP to a deficit of 3% – and it has remained stable at this level since then. The main reason for this has been a decline in manufacturing exports, which fell by about 30% during the crisis. Employment in the manufacturing sector declined by about 20% during the crisis and has not recovered. On the commodity export side, the rise in crude production linked to tar sands in Alberta roughly offset the decline in the value of natural gas exports. The overall trade balance in energy-related products has remained unchanged during this period.

The decline in the Canadian current account position into deficit was initially funded easily. A strong banking sector that weathered well the GFC made Canada a safe haven currency with strong portfolio inflows. Early rate hikes in 2010 created a small interest rate differential in favour of the CAD and a particularly strong reserve diversification flow into Canada also contributed to solid capital inflows. From 2008 to 2012 the Canadian BBoP (= current account + portfolio flows + net FDI) remained very strong, recording a surplus of about 2% of GDP. But this has changed in 2013.

Over the past few quarters, capital inflows have slowed rapidly, pushing the BBoP into deficit of about 1% of GDP currently. Slowing reserve diversification has almost certainly contributed to this. According to the latest COFER data, EM central bank holdings of CAD have remained broadly stable in the first half of 2013 – a trend that has likely continued since. Without continued additional reserve diversification inflows, the CAD has likely lost one of the primary funding sources for the sticky external deficit.

Low inflation and weak exports to keep policy rates low

As Robin Brooks and Mike Cahill discussed in the latest Week Ahead piece for Canada, the weakness in exports has increasingly become a concern of the Bank of Canada (BoC), together with persistent low inflation. Markets have already revised substantially their expectations for monetary policy. Cumulative rate hikes priced through the end of 2014 have declined from about 50bp in September to around 5bp currently. Our forecast is for the BoC to stay firmly on hold until the Fed starts raising rates in 2016. That said, with house prices already very elevated, as documented by Hui Shan in a recent Global Economics Weekly, it is likely that private consumption will no longer be the kind of positive impulse to the economy that it was in the past, and we expect Canada’s growth in 2014 (2.1% on our forecast) to lag behind that of the US (2.9%) for that reason. In addition, as we have been flagging, CPI inflation has been stuck at the lower end of the BoC’s 1-3% inflation target band. This could become a more material issue for the BoC should inflation not move back towards the middle of the band in coming months. Again, our baseline is for the BoC to be on hold, but since the money market curve is pricing a small chance of hikes through end-2014, we see risks here also skewed to the downside. Again, this is supportive of CAD weakness.

It is also important to highlight that the Canadian Dollar remains clearly overvalued on our GSDEER fair value model. Combined with the weak current account position, there are therefore good fundamental reasons for a weaker CAD. Should a more accommodative policy by the BoC lead to a weaker CAD, it is unlikely that policymakers in other countries would complain about an explicit attempt by the Canadian authorities to gain an unfair competitive advantage.

Combining all these factors, we see good reasons for gradual CAD weakness to persist for idiosyncratic reasons. The kind of price action consistent with external weakness is a steady drift weaker and gradual underperformance relative to other major currencies, in particular the USD.

A possible sharp acceleration on Fed tapering

The reason why the down move in the CAD could accelerate notably would be the expectation for tighter monetary policy in the US. In particular a sell-off in intermediate rates in the US could lead to a widening interest rate differential at the 5-year point in the curve of the US.

Purely from an interest rate differential angle, this would likely add a factor in favour of a rising $/CAD. There is an additional risk that the sell-off extends into the front end of the US curve in response to stronger growth, as we discussed in some detail in the outlook for 2014. The risk of this scenario materialising is also linked to the asymmetric risks to interest rates, coming from very low levels. Running our Correlation Cruncher, we find that in recent months $/CAD has been almost twice as sensitive to a move in US 2-year rates as to the Canadian 2-year rate. Therefore, and if these correlations persist, even a simultaneous sell-off in Canadian front-end rates would remain a net negative event for the CAD.

Finally, it is worth putting the risk of higher US rates into the context of the external funding needs. It will likely become more difficult for Canada to attract the necessary inflows to fund the current account deficit if bond yields rise in the US.

External deficits, reserve flows, growth and tapering

All told, there are a number of reasons why the Canadian Dollar has scope to weaken. Some of these have been a factor for some time but the notable weakening in the external balance, the gradual shift in the BoC communication and the prospect of Fed tapering and the associated risks all suggest that 2014 may be the year when the CAD weakens more materially after many years in narrow trading ranges.

In line with our recently changed forecasts, we expect $/CAD to rally to 1.14 on a 12-month basis, with a stop on a close below 1.01. This would imply a potential return of 7% including carry.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/UrTa7WUbBU4/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Goldman Reveals “Top Trade” Reco #3 For 2014, In Which Tom Stolper Goes Long The USDCAD

From Goldman:

Top Trade Recommendation #3: Long $/CAD on external deficits, tapering risks

A weak external position suggestive of a weakening CAD

Low inflation and weak exports to keep policy rates low

A possible sharp acceleration on Fed tapering

External deficits, reserve flows, growth and tapering

In line with our recently changed forecasts, we expect $/CAD to rally to 1.14 on a 12-month basis, with a stop on a close below 1.01. This would imply a potential return of 7% including carry.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/UrTa7WUbBU4/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Yen Carry Lifts Risk Around The Globe In Quiet Overnight Trade

In a carry-trade driven world in which news and fundamentals no longer matter, the only relevant “variable” is whether the JPY is down (check) and the EUR is up (check) which always results in green equities around the globe and green futures in the US, with yesterday’s sudden and sharp selloff on no liquidity and no news long forgotten.

The conventional wisdom “reason” for the JPY underperformance against all major FX is once again due to central bank rhetoric, when overnight BOJ’s Kiuchi sees high uncertainty whether 2% CPI will be reached in 2 years, Shirai says bank should ease further if growth, CPI diverge from main scenario. Also the BOJ once again hinted at more QE, and since this has proven sufficient to keep the JPY selling momentum, for now, why not continue doing it until like in May it stops working. As a result EURJPY rose above the 4 year high resistance of 138.00, while USDJPY is bordering on 102.00. On the other hand, the EUR gained after German parties strike coalition accord, pushing the EURUSD over 1.36 and further making the ECB’s life, now that it has to talk the currency down not up, impossible. This is especially true following reports in the German press that the ECB is looking at introducing an LTRO in order to help promote bank lending. Since that rumor made zero dent on the EUR, expect the ongoing daily litany of ECB rumors that the bank is “technically ready” for negative rates and even QE, although as has been shown in recent months this now has a half-life measured in minutes as the market largely is ignoring whatever “tools” Draghi and company believe they have left.

As for everything else that is “going on” in the market, DB’s Jim Reid summarizes it perfectly: “There have certainly been more interesting weeks than this one has been so far and yesterday proved to be another fairly dull affair for markets. The lack of any key market moving developments and the Thanksgiving-shortened week is certainly not helping.” Complacency all around.

Previewing today’s main events we’ll get a deluge of US data given tomorrow’s holiday. Initial jobless claims, UofM Consumer Sentiment, mortgage applications are some of the notable ones but we suspect focus will firmly be on durable goods orders for October and the Chicago PMI for November. Expectations for these two are reasonably low with the market expecting durable goods headline to fall 2% in October from the 3.8% increase we saw in September. Chicago PMI will be an important read ahead of next week’s ISM and the market is expecting November’s print (60.0) to be nearly 6pts lower than last month. Data aside we have a 7yr Treasury auction today following a fairly decent 5yr auction yesterday.

US event calendar

US: Initial jobless claims, cons 330k (8:30)
US: Durable goods orders m/m, cons -2.0% (8:30)
US: Chicago PMI, cons 60.0 (9:45)
US: Univ. of Michigan confidence (F), cons 73.1 (9:55)
US: sells US$29bn 7y notes (11:30)

Overnight news bulletin from Bloomberg and Ransquawk:

Treasuries little changed before week’s auctions conclude with $29b 7Y notes, yield 2.065% in WI trading; noncompetitive and competitive closing times at 11:00 a.m. and 11:30 a.m. ET, respectively.
U.S. fixed-income markets closed for Thanksgiving Day tomorrow, close at 2pm on Friday
Reports that the ECB is looking at introducing an LTRO in order to help promote bank lending has failed to weigh on EUR. However, Favourable seasonal flow, together with touted real money buying EUR saw EUR/ JPY advance to its highest level since 2009 this morning.
German Chancellor Merkel and SPD reached grand coalition agreement, according to CDU’s Grosse-Broemer. There were also earlier reports that the new German Cabinet will not be named until mid-December according to the DPA.Ifo institute’s index of Germany’s business climate rose to 109.3 in Nov., highest since April 2012 and above all estimates in a Bloomberg survey
Obama’s agreement with Iran is part of a high-stakes set of diplomatic initiatives that is unnerving Middle East allies concerned that his goal is to reduce U.S. commitments in the region
Two unarmed American B-52 bombers flew through disputed areas of the East China Sea covered by China’s new air defense zone, a show of support for Japan as Abe seeks to expand his nation’s military
The Supreme Court will take up a challenge to part of Obamacare by companies claiming a religious exemption to the requirement that they provide birth- control coverage for employees
Sovereign yields mostly higher; EU peripheral spreads narrow as bund yields rise. Asian stocks mixed, European stocks, U.S. equity-index futures gain. WTI crude falls; copper and gold higher

Market Re-Cap from Ransquawk

Reports that the ECB is looking at introducing an LTRO in order to help promote bank lending has failed to weigh on EUR, which instead benefited from broad based JPY weakness which drove EUR/JPY above 138.00 level (highest since 2009) and also touted real money buying of EUR. Nevertheless, stocks traded broadly higher, with peripheral EU based financials among the best performing as credit spreads tightened further amid reports of a new LTRO which is said to be with a 9-12 month term. Looking elsewhere, despite the supply from Buba, Bunds traded steady, with peripheral bond yield spreads trading marginally tighter. On that note, analysts at Goldman Sachs noted that they believe that Spanish and Italian 2y spreads vs. Germany could halve in 2014, citing what they believe is market’s incorrect pricing of a potential negative ECB deposit rate, or extension of full-allotment term funding. Going forward, market participants will get to digest the release of the latest weekly jobs report, Chicago PMI and also the weekly DoE data.

Asian Headlines

BoJ board member Shirai commented that they should stick to 2% price target now, instead of setting target in a range and that targeting an inflation range is an option once CPI tops 1%. Shirai was more cautious on GDP and CPI outlook than BoJ’s median forecast, but stated that current conditions don’t warrant additional easing.

EU & UK Headlines

German Chancellor Merkel and SPD reached grand coalition agreement, according to CDU’s Grosse-Broemer. There were also earlier reports that the new German Cabinet will not be named until mid-December according to the DPA. The agreement says individual EU states will be responsible for winding down their own banks if the common resolution fund is insufficient. Funds used by EU member states to rescue banks should be excluded from 3%/GDP deficit rule, but states may apply to the ESM should national funds be insufficient.

ECB weighing new

The IMF are discussing plans to impose upfront losses on bondholders the next time a country in the euro area requests a bailout according to unsourced reports.

Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta’s government won a confidence vote on the 2014 budget in the Italian senate with a vote of 171 to 135

German GfK Consumer Confidence (Dec) M/M 7.4 vs Exp. 7.1 (Prev. 7.0, Rev. 7.1)

Goldman Sachs sees Spanish and Italian 2y spreads vs. Germany possibly to halve in 2014
UK GDP (Q3 P) Q/Q 0.8% vs Exp. 0.8% (Prev. 0.8%) – Strongest Q/Q since Q2 2010
UK GDP (Q3 P) Y/Y 1.5% vs Exp. 1.5% (Prev. 1.5%)
Barclays month-end extensions: Euro Aggr (+0.04y)
Barclays month-end extensions: Sterling Aggr (+0.06y)

US Headlines

After setting a deadline to fix the HealthCare.gov website, Obama administration officials have offered largely inexact measures of success. That has prompted Republicans to accuse the White House of moving the goal posts.

Barclays month-end extensions: Treasuries (+0.10y)

Equities

Equities are seen up across the board this morning with the outperformer this being Colruyt following their premarket earnings. Furthermore Banco Popolare are up just over 3% following reports that the Co. are said to be holding extraordinary board meeting to discuss possible reorganisation including Credito Bergamasco Unit. Vivendi are also seeing some upside following reports that the Co. may distribute SFR shares to Co. shareholders after the Co.’s board validates demerger plan. Co. says to submit demerger plan to works councils. In terms of laggards, Accor are down around 4.50% following reports of a shake up to the Co.’s board. Solvay are also seeing some downside following reports that the Co. have cut 2016 adj. EBITDA goal to EUR 2.3-2.5bln vs. Est. 2.35bln.

Favourable seasonal flow, together with touted real money buying EUR saw EUR/JPY advance to its highest level since 2009 this morning. The cross also benefited from grind higher by USD/JPY, which remains vulnerable to downside demand given the erasure of RKO barriers. Elsewhere, USD weakness also supported GBP/USD in the first half of the trading session, which advanced to its highest level in 11-months and broke above touted barrier level at 1.6300.

Goldman Sachs 3rd Top Ten 2014 Trade is long USD/CAD; targeting 1.14

Credit Suisse now sees USD/JPY at 110.00 in 3 months and at 120.00 in 12 months

Commodities

Heading into the North American open, WTI crude futures are trading in negative territory following a large build in API crude oil inventories of 6.9mln, whilst Brent crude futures trade with gains for the session in a continuation of recent trade given troubles in Libya and caused a widening of the WTI-Brent spread.

Furthermore, WTI has been trading in a tight range for the past month around the USD 93 level, below this there is little in the way of support for prices until just above the USD 90 level which was seen in June, therefore today’s DoE release could act as a catalyst to break out of this range.

SocGen revised Brent outlook down by USD 2 to USD 108/bbl in 2014, revised WTI outlook down by USD 4 to USD 99/bbl and forecast an average 2014 NYMEX natural gas price of USD 3.65/MCF. Sees gold averaging USD 1135/Oz in 2014, silver at USD 19/Oz, platinum at USD 1550/ Oz, palladium at USD 790/Oz and sees 2014 aluminium price at 1,900/T and 2015 at 1,950/T.

Iran’s Oil Minster Zanganeh has held meetings with European Co.’s in an attempt to get them back to Iran following the nuclear deal struck over the weekend.

Morgan Stanley said that Brent is unlikely to average below USD 95-100 per barrel, adding that downside risk is concentrated in 2014, 2015 and that Brent is likely range-bound over the medium term.

Jim Reid from DB concludes the overnight event roundup

Away from the equity markets, primary market activities in credit slowed down sharply ahead of Thanksgiving. Supply was on the quiet side as investors were
largely focused on month-end rebalancing given the upcoming holiday. Investors were still net buyers of bonds though, to the tune of US$383m in the US, according to FINRA TRACE data which noted that US$12.7bn of bonds were swapping hands yesterday. As we mentioned yesterday US credit spreads have had a pretty good ride since their wides in early October and we suspect the search for yield mentality will continue to prevail into year-end absence any surprises from the Fed.

Recapping the main data events of yesterday, the US risk sentiment was actually well supported early on by some positive housing data. Building permits (974k v 935k) was better than expected while the Case-Shiller home price index also rose more than consensus (+1.03% v +0.90%) in September. The Richmond Fed manufacturing survey bucked the recent trend in similar surveys with a better-than-expected headline (13 v 4) but all eyes will be on the Chicago PMI today. The consumer was the main softness in yesterday’s data flow with the confidence reading down to 70.4 v 72.6 expected. The decline
was largely driven by a drop in consumer expectations (69.3 v 72.2) although labour market related sub-indicators showed some monthly improvement.

Turning to the overnight session the Asian equities session is mixed with Chinese (+0.7%) and Hong Kong (+0.6%) markets outperforming the rest. The rally in Chinese stocks overnight also marks the first gain in five days largely driven by railway makers, brokers and defence companies. The latter was likely driven by the escalating military tension between China and the US that seems to be getting increasing press focus overnight. According to Bloomberg news two unarmed US B-52 bombers yesterday flew into a disputed air-defence zone claimed by China. The area is said to include a chain of islands in the East China Sea controlled by Japan. Pentagon said that the flights were a longplanned training mission and insisted that the US would continue to operate in what it considers to be international air space. FT said that the Chinese were not informed of the flights. Per the Japanese government’s instructions, ANA and Japan Airlines have also stopped providing flight information to China which they did overnight as they flew through a new Chinese air-defense zone without notice.

In other overnight news, Chancellor Merkel’s CDU has reached a coalition agreement with the Social Democrats after a lengthy discussion overnight. According to the BBC the breakthrough came after 17 hours of talks with both parties reaching agreement on issues including minimum wage, a lower retirement age and changes to dual citizenship rules. Away from politics and on a less cheerful note, S&P said that the biggest US banks may have to spend another US$104bn to resolve mortgage related issues with investors and counterparties. The top end of this estimate would eliminate about two thirds of the $154.9bn litigation costs already provided for by the banks but would not erode into their regulatory capital (FT).

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/NHCaIaWk91g/story01.htm Tyler Durden

It’ll Snow-den in Time for Xmas

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Yes, it will Snow-den after all in time for Xmas perhaps this year and it will be white all around from the fall-out as the bomb hits. Edward Snowden has recently revealed that he has a secret cache of ‘doomsday’ material that will blow the world apart and the US in particular. Oh, please let it Snow on ‘em before Xmas! The National Security Agency and British Intelligence have both made unofficial comments saying that they are indeed worried about the classified material that Snowden has encrypted and stored on a data cloud. Aren’t they able to access it the poor things?

Snowden’s Doomsday

Doomsday from Snowden?

According to the Guardian newspaper that has been the mouthpiece of Edward Snowden from the very beginning, there is information concerning intelligence personnel names in both the USA and in the rest of the world as well as current former US officials. People that were informed have also been listed in the data. Apparently, Snowden has played the boys at the NSA at their own game and has encrypted the information with multiple passwords and a sophisticated form of encryption. So, it is possible to protect something so well that nobody (not even the NSA) can get their peeping-Tom eyes on it? Why didn’t they do it before? The question hardly needs answering as we all know that everybody was in on the act.

It’ll be Doomsday for Christmas from Snowden this year, but it’s not certain that Santa got that on his list when the NSA sent in their letter to the North Pole, via Russia. The passwords are in the hands of three different people and they change regularly, while remaining open for a very short time-slot each day. All very secretive and sounds like either a sect or a religion, or the Coca-Cola story. Maybe Snowden has the perfect recipe for make things go pop. If he gets arrested, caught or worse, then those three have the task of making the information available to the public.

Whether or not the cache actually exists, the NSA has declined to comment and so has British Intelligence (Government Communications Headquarters or GCHQ). Whatever happens, it is most certainly Snowden’s insurance of protection from being bumped off. Remember the men in black can do whatever they like apparently. According to Obama administration officials, Snowden has enough material to keep the papers going for another two years. He has somewhere between 50 and 200 thousand documents that have been downloaded in his possession. According to estimates, there have been only some 500 documents that have actually been made public to date.

Just the tip of the iceberg.

The NSA and GCHQ had better listen up if they don’t want that top-secret information being revealed. Maybe if the names of spies are on the documents as Snowden has stated, then they will start to become more open to discussion. Snowden just got bargaining power.

Forgotten Snowden

Edward Snowden may be forgotten by the start of 2014 as other things take over our minds and the mainstream media starts to drop him from their pages.

Snowden shouldn’t be dropped and we should make sure that we still care about what the NSA and British Intelligence forces did to our rights as citizens in countries that were supposed to leave us with a minimum of privacy instead of violating that and selling it on to others. We should still care, but how many will still believe that Snowden was a traitor to his country because he told the truth? How many would have preferred not to know? How many will say ‘I knew it all along’?

There are few out there in the world that will actually stand up and shout that yes Snowden admitted what we should have been told long ago. Stop violating our rights. But by January he’ll be just a voice from the past. We will have moved on to greater, more interesting things like the post-festive season sales and how many people are spending the money they don’t actually have (including the US government). That’s far more riveting for some than knowing that our rights have been violated. It’s surprising the number of people that actually believe Snowden to be a traitor.

Those very same people condemn the sheeple for not waking up to reality, but they are so fast asleep that they have done exactly what the US state told them to do: condemn Snowden for revealing the truth. It’s the latter that are even worse than the sheeple, it might seem. The sheeple honestly don’t know they are asleep, at least. There are still 49%(October 2013) of US citizens that believe that Snowden was a traitor to their country and to hell with being monitored by their state. If Snowden does reveal the names of spies and therefore puts those people in danger, then he may just become the traitor he wasn’t meant to be, however. But, he hasn’t done it yet.