Just when you thought ObamaCare couldn't stoop any lower in its "pitch", it does…
and there's more…
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another site
Stanley Druckenmiller founded his hedge fund Duquesne Capital in 1981. From 1986 onward he maintained average annual returns of 30%. He also managed George Soros’ Quantum Fund from 1988-2000. During that latter period he famously facilitated Soros’ “breaking of the Bank of England” trade: the legendary trade which netted over $1 billion in a single day.
Druckenmiller closed Duquesne Capital in 2010, stating that he was no longer able to meet his investment “standard[s]” in the post-2008 climate (he made money in 2008 before the Fed began to alter the risk landscape).
Druckenmiller’s key strength has always been macro-economic forecasting. That he would feel the capital markets were not offering him the opportunities he needed says a lot.
Seth Klarman is another investment legend who is returning capital to clients. Widely considered to be the Warren Buffett of his generation, Klarman recently cited a lack of “investment opportunities” as the cause for his decision to downsize his legendary Baupost Group hedge funds.
Other legends or market outperformers who have returned capital to investors or closed their funds to outside investors are Carl Icahn and Michael Karsch. Indeed, even value legend Warren Buffett is sitting on the single largest amount of cash in the history of his 50+ year career as an investor, stating that stocks are “fully valued” at current levels (Buffett largely does not believe in shorting the market, so his decision to be in cash is a strong indicator of opportunities).
These men are masters of the capital markets. They are voting with their feet and pulling their capital out of them. Given that their personal compensation is closely linked to assets under management and profit sharing, this decision is akin to the choice to forego additional wealth that could be made quite easily (none of these individuals would have trouble raising several billion more in capital) rather than trying to find opportunities in a challenging market.
This is not a permanent situation. At some point once the great adjustment occurs there will be very compelling opportunities in the markets. However, today I see a dearth of them.
· US-based blue chips and other premium companies are trading at decent valuations, but the macro picture is unattractive (in 2012, 10 companies accounted for 88% of profit growth in the S&P 500).
· Bonds appear to be at the beginning of an environment of rising rates. An entire generation of bond managers have not experienced a bear market in bonds before.
· Emerging markets are increasingly risky from a geopolitical perspective (nationalization of resources, etc.). Moreover, the inflationary pressures created by loose monetary policy at Central Banks make for civil unrest and wage hikes. These in turn shrink the US/ emerging market wage differential (note that Apple, Bridgestone and many others are moving manufacturing facilities from China to the US for this reason).
· Commodities are highly influenced by China and Brazil. I am concerned that there are in fact very serious problems emerging in the shadow banking system in the former would could result in a banking crisis there (I’ll be devoting the majority of next month’s issue to this topic). The latter country is experiencing another bout of inflation that has already brought two million people out on the streets in protest.
This is not so say that money will not be made in any of these asset classes. I am merely outlining the risks I see in these asset classes.
For a FREE Special Report outlining how to protect your portfolio from a market correction, swing by: http://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/special-reports.html
Best
Phoenix Capital Research
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Submitted by Simon Black of Sovereign Man blog,
As we’re coming up on the 100th anniversary of the establishment of Federal Reserve, one thing has become abundantly clear– these guys are horrible at their jobs.
According to the popular lie, the Federal Reserve was supposed to have been established to smooth out the economic cycle, thus preventing booms, busts, recessions, and depressions.
It hasn’t really worked out that way.
In the 100 years prior to the establishment of the Federal Reserve, there were 18 distinct recessions or depressions:
1815, 1822, 1825, 1828, 1833, 1836, 1839, 1845, 1847, 1853, 1860, 1865, 1869, 1873, 1887, 1890, 1899, and 1902.
Since the establishment of the Federal Reserve, there have been 18 recessions or depressions:
1918, 1920, 1923, 1926, 1929, 1937, 1945, 1949, 1953, 1958, 1960, 1969, 1973, 1980, 1981, 1990, 2001, 2008.
So in other words, the economy experienced just as many recessions with the ‘expert’ management of the Federal Reserve as without it.
And this doesn’t even begin to capture all the absurd panics (the S&L scare), bailouts (Long-Term Capital Management), and ridiculous asset bubbles that they’ve created.
Hardly an impressive enough track record to justify conjuring trillions of dollars out of thin air, and awarding nearly totalitarian control of the money supply and economy to a tiny banking elite… wouldn’t you say?
via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/CIP1DFPDap8/story01.htm Tyler Durden
Submitted by Simon Black of Sovereign Man blog,
As we’re coming up on the 100th anniversary of the establishment of Federal Reserve, one thing has become abundantly clear– these guys are horrible at their jobs.
According to the popular lie, the Federal Reserve was supposed to have been established to smooth out the economic cycle, thus preventing booms, busts, recessions, and depressions.
It hasn’t really worked out that way.
In the 100 years prior to the establishment of the Federal Reserve, there were 18 distinct recessions or depressions:
1815, 1822, 1825, 1828, 1833, 1836, 1839, 1845, 1847, 1853, 1860, 1865, 1869, 1873, 1887, 1890, 1899, and 1902.
Since the establishment of the Federal Reserve, there have been 18 recessions or depressions:
1918, 1920, 1923, 1926, 1929, 1937, 1945, 1949, 1953, 1958, 1960, 1969, 1973, 1980, 1981, 1990, 2001, 2008.
So in other words, the economy experienced just as many recessions with the ‘expert’ management of the Federal Reserve as without it.
And this doesn’t even begin to capture all the absurd panics (the S&L scare), bailouts (Long-Term Capital Management), and ridiculous asset bubbles that they’ve created.
Hardly an impressive enough track record to justify conjuring trillions of dollars out of thin air, and awarding nearly totalitarian control of the money supply and economy to a tiny banking elite… wouldn’t you say?
via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/CIP1DFPDap8/story01.htm Tyler Durden
The last time employees in the “Food Services and Drinking Places” category experienced a monthly job decline was February 2010. Since then, for 42 consecutive months, the US eating and drinking industry went on an epic hiring spree without a single month of net layoffs, adding over 1 million workers and hitting an all time high 10.334 million workers, even as actual restaurant retail sales have recently tumbled as a result of the middle-class US household once again running on fumes as a result of the Fed’s disastrous wealth-transferring policies. Well, as the chart below shows, after 42 months of relentless hiring of bartenders and waitresses, we may have just hit “peak bartenders.”
What this means for the future of the US workforce we don’t know, but whatever it is, it can’t be good for several million Los Angeles-based “actors.”
via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/kGGuV0HlAE8/story01.htm Tyler Durden
The last time employees in the “Food Services and Drinking Places” category experienced a monthly job decline was February 2010. Since then, for 42 consecutive months, the US eating and drinking industry went on an epic hiring spree without a single month of net layoffs, adding over 1 million workers and hitting an all time high 10.334 million workers, even as actual restaurant retail sales have recently tumbled as a result of the middle-class US household once again running on fumes as a result of the Fed’s disastrous wealth-transferring policies. Well, as the chart below shows, after 42 months of relentless hiring of bartenders and waitresses, we may have just hit “peak bartenders.”
What this means for the future of the US workforce we don’t know, but whatever it is, it can’t be good for several million Los Angeles-based “actors.”
via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/kGGuV0HlAE8/story01.htm Tyler Durden
It seems, once again, that Apple shares were bid into the product announcement and sold on the news (though it appears the selling has been front-run here). No one really knows what they will show but expectations are for a shiny new iPad which will wow audiences world wide until they start to use it and realize it’s the same as the old one… (rumors include iPad Mini 2, iPad 5, New Macro Pro, New MacBook Pros, OS X Mavericks, and even Apple TV again…)
click image for live stream of the presentation from Apple…
and here is CNET’s live coverage…
via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/Y6Kwqh5gCTM/story01.htm Tyler Durden
Submitted by Lance Roberts of STA Wealth Management,
I recently posted some thoughts on "The Most Dangerous Line Uttered During The Debt Ceiling Debate" in which I discussed the idea of having to increase the government's debt limit in order to pay its bills. The premise was rather simple. As the government continues to increase its borrowing in order to meet spending requirements; the additional interest service requirement detracts dollars from productive uses. As a consequence, over time, economic growth has slowed. This article, along with my conclusions, elicited some excellent questions that deserved some follow up.
Scott N. stated that:
"Not all government debt is created equal. We have bad deficits and good deficits. Good deficits are used to fund investments that will have a positive rate of return, properly determined. Those contribute to GDP."
He is absolutely correct. This comment falls within the realm of Austrian economics which is something that I addressed in a previous missive entitled"The Breaking Point:"
"The Austrian business cycle theory attempts to explain business cycles through a set of ideas. The theory views business cycles 'as the inevitable consequence of excessive growth in bank credit, exacerbated by inherently damaging and ineffective central bank policies, which cause interest rates to remain too low for too long, resulting in excessive credit creation, speculative economic bubbles and lowered savings.'
In other words, the proponents of Austrian economics believe that a sustained period of low interest rates, and excessive credit creation, results in a volatile and unstable imbalance between saving and investment. In other words, low interest rates tend to stimulate borrowing from the banking system which in turn leads, as one would expect, to the expansion of credit. This expansion of credit then, in turn, creates an expansion of the supply of money.
Therefore, the credit-sourced boom becomes unsustainable as artificially stimulated borrowing seeks out diminishing investment opportunities. Finally, the credit-sourced boom results in widespread malinvestments. When the exponential credit creation can no longer be sustained a 'credit contraction' occurs which ultimately shrinks the money supply and the markets finally 'clear' which then causes resources to be reallocated back towards more efficient uses."
This point was also addressed by Dr. Woody Brock during his presentation at the 2012 Altegris Investment Conference, wherein he stated (these are my personal notes):
"There is a huge debate over 'Austerity' versus 'Spending' which leads to increases in debt.
High debt to GDP ratios must ultimately be reduced. There is no question of this.
Rising debt levels erode economic prosperity over time. However, the word, 'deficit', has no real meaning – let me explain.
Let's take two different countries.
Country (A) spends $4 Trillion with receipts of only $3 Trillion. This leaves Country (A) with a $1 Trillion deficit. In order to make up the difference between the spending and the income; the Treasury must issue $1 Trillion in new debt. The new debt that is issued is only used to finance current spending (welfare) but generates no income. Therefore, the gap that is created continues to grow as the cycle is repeated.
Country (B) spends $4 Trillion and receives only $3 Trillion in income. However, the $1 Trillion of excess debt created was invested into projects and infrastructure that produced a positive rate of return. There is no real deficit as the rate of return on the investments ultimately fills the 'deficit' by paying for itself.
There is no disagreement about the need for government spending. The disagreement is with the abuse and waste of it.
Keynes' theory is that when private spending is low it should then be stimulated with public spending. The problem with this theory, while correct, is that it was badly abused. When the economy is strong and growing the public spending should be sharply reduced. This was never the case.
The problem today is that government spending is primarily unproductive in nature (roughly 70%) with only 30% going towards productive investments. This is against the Arrow-Kurtz principles. Today we are borrowing our children's future with debt. 'We are witnessing the 'hosing' of the young' he stated.
The U.S. has the labor, resources and capital for a resurgence of a 'Marshall Plan'. The development of infrastructure has high rates of return on each dollar spent. However, instead, the government spent trillions bailing out banks and supporting Wall Street which has had virtually NO rate of return."
The problem is that we have been running deficits since the beginning of 1980. T
hese deficits have retarded economic growth as the borrowed dollars were used for non-productive purposes. Currently, it requires in excess of $5 of debt to produce $1 of economic growth. This is ultimately unsustainable. The chart below shows the annual change in GDP, the annual net increase in Federal Debt and the surplus or deficit. The red dotted line is the polynomial trend line of the annual rates of economic growth.
This chart goes to address the point made by John L. in relation to economic growth rates versus debt:
"A vast majority will agree with your assertion. But the time lag effects I have pointed out have been bothering me ever since the seemingly perfect Rogoff and Reinhart bubble got deflated. That was another 'question everything' wake-up call."
This is an excellent point. There are MANY factors that go into the reality that economic growth rates are slowing. In fact, as I stated in "A History Of Real GDP & Population Growth" we are now running the lowest rates of economic growth in the history of the U.S. This is not only because of the massive increases in debt but also to low rates of inflation, population growth, and real employment and wages.
In regards to Reinhart & Rogoff's work on debt levels versus economic growth, while there was great controversy over the calculation of certain metrics, the end conclusion that rising debt does impede economic growth remains intact. (R&R's Response To Critics Here) The only question is whether it is 90% or 130% or some other level. The reality is that the "bang moment" has much to do with the underlying metrics of the country in question such as whether they are a sovereign currency issuer, a net exporter or importer, population growth, dependency ratios, wage levels, and, now, the level of central bank interventions.
The questions posed by John, and Scott, were excellent. My hope is that I have made a decent attempt at answering them. There are no simple solutions to the issues that currently plague the U.S. and, unfortunately, the latest debt ceiling debate/government shutdown did nothing to institute any reforms whatsoever. The "kick-the-can" solutions by fiscal policy makers continues to show little understanding about the drivers of real economic growth, the need to reduce governmental dependency or a real "wealth effect" that impacts more than just 1% of the population.
via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/HZGFd4td02k/story01.htm Tyler Durden
Submitted by Lance Roberts of STA Wealth Management,
I recently posted some thoughts on "The Most Dangerous Line Uttered During The Debt Ceiling Debate" in which I discussed the idea of having to increase the government's debt limit in order to pay its bills. The premise was rather simple. As the government continues to increase its borrowing in order to meet spending requirements; the additional interest service requirement detracts dollars from productive uses. As a consequence, over time, economic growth has slowed. This article, along with my conclusions, elicited some excellent questions that deserved some follow up.
Scott N. stated that:
"Not all government debt is created equal. We have bad deficits and good deficits. Good deficits are used to fund investments that will have a positive rate of return, properly determined. Those contribute to GDP."
He is absolutely correct. This comment falls within the realm of Austrian economics which is something that I addressed in a previous missive entitled"The Breaking Point:"
"The Austrian business cycle theory attempts to explain business cycles through a set of ideas. The theory views business cycles 'as the inevitable consequence of excessive growth in bank credit, exacerbated by inherently damaging and ineffective central bank policies, which cause interest rates to remain too low for too long, resulting in excessive credit creation, speculative economic bubbles and lowered savings.'
In other words, the proponents of Austrian economics believe that a sustained period of low interest rates, and excessive credit creation, results in a volatile and unstable imbalance between saving and investment. In other words, low interest rates tend to stimulate borrowing from the banking system which in turn leads, as one would expect, to the expansion of credit. This expansion of credit then, in turn, creates an expansion of the supply of money.
Therefore, the credit-sourced boom becomes unsustainable as artificially stimulated borrowing seeks out diminishing investment opportunities. Finally, the credit-sourced boom results in widespread malinvestments. When the exponential credit creation can no longer be sustained a 'credit contraction' occurs which ultimately shrinks the money supply and the markets finally 'clear' which then causes resources to be reallocated back towards more efficient uses."
This point was also addressed by Dr. Woody Brock during his presentation at the 2012 Altegris Investment Conference, wherein he stated (these are my personal notes):
"There is a huge debate over 'Austerity' versus 'Spending' which leads to increases in debt.
High debt to GDP ratios must ultimately be reduced. There is no question of this.
Rising debt levels erode economic prosperity over time. However, the word, 'deficit', has no real meaning – let me explain.
Let's take two different countries.
Country (A) spends $4 Trillion with receipts of only $3 Trillion. This leaves Country (A) with a $1 Trillion deficit. In order to make up the difference between the spending and the income; the Treasury must issue $1 Trillion in new debt. The new debt that is issued is only used to finance current spending (welfare) but generates no income. Therefore, the gap that is created continues to grow as the cycle is repeated.
Country (B) spends $4 Trillion and receives only $3 Trillion in income. However, the $1 Trillion of excess debt created was invested into projects and infrastructure that produced a positive rate of return. There is no real deficit as the rate of return on the investments ultimately fills the 'deficit' by paying for itself.
There is no disagreement about the need for government spending. The disagreement is with the abuse and waste of it.
Keynes' theory is that when private spending is low it should then be stimulated with public spending. The problem with this theory, while correct, is that it was badly abused. When the economy is strong and growing the public spending should be sharply reduced. This was never the case.
The problem today is that government spending is primarily unproductive in nature (roughly 70%) with only 30% going towards productive investments. This is against the Arrow-Kurtz principles. Today we are borrowing our children's future with debt. 'We are witnessing the 'hosing' of the young' he stated.
The U.S. has the labor, resources and capital for a resurgence of a 'Marshall Plan'. The development of infrastructure has high rates of return on each dollar spent. However, instead, the government spent trillions bailing out banks and supporting Wall Street which has had virtually NO rate of return."
The problem is that we have been running deficits since the beginning of 1980. These deficits have retarded economic growth as the borrowed dollars were used for non-productive purposes. Currently, it requires in excess of $5 of debt to produce $1 of economic growth. This is ultimately unsustainable. The chart below shows the annual change in GDP, the annual net increase in Federal Debt and the surplus or deficit. The red dotted line is the polynomial trend line of the annual rates of economic growth.
This chart goes to address the point made by John L. in relation to economic growth rates versus debt:
"A vast majority will agree with your assertion. But the time lag effects I have pointed out have been bothering me ever since the seemingly perfect Rogoff and Reinhart bubble got deflated. That was another 'question everything' wake-up call."
This is an excellent point. There are MANY factors that go into the reality that economic growth rates are slowing. In fact, as I stated in "A History Of Real GDP & Population Growth" we are now running the lowest rates of economic growth in the history of the U.S. This is not only because of the massive increases in debt but also to low rates of inflation, population growth, and real employment and wages.
In regards to Reinhart & Rogoff's work on debt levels versus economic growth, while there was great controversy over the calculation of certain metrics, the end conclusion that rising debt does impede economic growth remains intact. (R&R's Response To Critics Here) The only question is whether it is 90% or 130% or some other level. The reality is that the "bang moment" has much to do with the underlying metrics of the country in question such as whether they are a sovereign currency issuer, a net exporter or importer, population growth, dependency ratios, wage levels, and, now, the level of central bank interventions.
The questions posed by John, and Scott, were excellent. My hope is that I have made a decent attempt at answering them. There are no simple solutions to the issues that currently plague the U.S. and, unfortunately, the latest debt ceiling debate/government shutdown did nothing to institute any reforms whatsoever. The "kick-the-can" solutions by fiscal policy makers continues to show little understanding about the drivers of real economic growth, the need to reduce governmental dependency or a real "wealth effect" that impacts more than just 1% of the population.
via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/HZGFd4td02k/story01.htm Tyler Durden
Wired notes:
James Duane, a professor at Regent Law School and former defense attorney, notes in his excellent lecture on why it is never a good idea to talk to the police:
Estimates of the current size of the body of federal criminal law vary. It has been reported that the Congressional Research Service cannot even count the current number of federal crimes. These laws are scattered in over 50 titles of the United States Code, encompassing roughly 27,000 pages. Worse yet, the statutory code sections often incorporate, by reference, the provisions and sanctions of administrative regulations promulgated by various regulatory agencies under congressional authorization. Estimates of how many such regulations exist are even less well settled, but the ABA thinks there are ”nearly 10,000.”
If the federal government can’t even count how many laws there are, what chance does an individual have of being certain that they are not acting in violation of one of them?
As Supreme Court Justice Breyer elaborates:
The complexity of modern federal criminal law, codified in several thousand sections of the United States Code and the virtually infinite variety of factual circumstances that might trigger an investigation into a possible violation of the law, make it difficult for anyone to know, in advance, just when a particular set of statements might later appear (to a prosecutor) to be relevant to some such investigation.
For instance, did you know that it is a federal crime to be in possession of a lobster under a certain size? It doesn’t matter if you bought it at a grocery store, if someone else gave it to you, if it’s dead or alive, if you found it after it died of natural causes, or even if you killed it while acting in self defense. You can go to jail because of a lobster.
If the federal government had access to every email you’ve ever written and every phone call you’ve ever made, it’s almost certain that they could find something you’ve done which violates a provision in the 27,000 pages of federal statues or 10,000 administrative regulations. You probably do have something to hide, you just don’t know it yet.
And that’s just federal laws.
Here is a small sample of state and local laws which are claimed to be on the books as of today*:
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Connecticut
Delaware
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
It is illegal to sell toothpaste and a toothbrush to the same customer on a Sunday, in Providence
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
Do you imagine that it is possible for you to go through life without violating a federal, state or local law? It’s impossible.
As Stalin’s notorious chief of secret police famously said:
Show me the man and I will find the crime.
Top NSA whistleblower William Binney – the former head of the National Security Agency’s global digital data gathering program – has repeatedly explained that just because you “haven’t done anything wrong” doesn’t mean you can’t be severely harmed by spying: p>
The problem is, if they think they’re not doing anything that’s wrong, they don’t get to define that. The central government does.
Binney explains that the government is storing everything, and creating a searchable database … to be used whenever it wants, for any purpose it wants (even just going after someone it doesn’t like).
And he notes that the government will go after anyone who is on its enemies list:
If you ever get on their enemies list, like Petraeus did, then you can be drawn into that surveillance.
Similarly, Edward Snowden said:
Because even if you’re not doing anything wrong you’re being watched and recorded. And the storage capability of these systems increases every year consistently by orders of magnitude … to where it’s getting to the point where you don’t have to have done anything wrong. You simply have to eventually fall under suspicion from somebody – even by a wrong call. And then they can use this system to go back in time and scrutinize every decision you’ve ever made, every friend you’ve ever discussed something with. And attack you on that basis to sort to derive suspicion from an innocent life and paint anyone in the context of a wrongdoer.
[If people don't oppose the surveillance state now] it will be turnkey tyranny.
Remember, it’s not just the NSA which is spying on your. Numerous government agencies are spying on all of your data, and sharing that information with federal, state and local law enforcement, the drug enforcement agency, the IRS and many others. So if any of those agencies thinks – rightly or wrongly – that you might have broken a law, they might target you.
Get it?
Mass surveillance is incredibly dangerous … and no one is immune.
* We’ve checked some of these, and verified that they are still on the books today. We have not checked all of them.
via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/dTM6XU25oFM/story01.htm George Washington