Category: zerohedge

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com, 

US military officials told reporters on Thursday that there could have been more civilian casualties than initially thought in the recent special operations forces raid in northwest Syria that targeted an ISIS leader.

When the raid first happened, President Biden and the Pentagon said ISIS leader Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurayshi blew up himself, his wife, and two children on the third floor of a building once US forces arrived. But other sources said at least 13 people were killed. The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said among the 13 killed were four children and three women.

The military officials admitted Thursday that they don’t know for certain if al-Qurayshi detonated the bomb that caused the explosion. They insist the blast was caused by someone in the building and wasn’t the fault of the US, but they admitted there is no video footage of the raid.

The officials also said they couldn’t rule out that more people than al-Qurayshi and his family died. They noted that “multiple bodies” ended up under rubble, and the US forces didn’t have time to count them.

The officials said a lower-level ISIS member was on the second floor of the building with five children. The US forces killed the ISIS fighter and his wife in a gun battle and were able to evacuate four of the children, but a toddler was found dead, and the cause of death was not clear.

The raid came amid heightened scrutiny over the high number of civilian casualties caused by US operations in the Middle East. Thursday’s briefing shows that the White House was not being truthful about the raid on al-Qurayshi right after it happened.

Psaki to reporter asking about those “skeptical” about civilians killed in raid: “Skeptical of the U.S. military’s assessment when they went and took out… the leader of ISIS, that they are not providing accurate information, and ISIS is providing accurate information?” pic.twitter.com/7g90mc1x1U

— Tommy moderna-vaX-Topher (@tommyxtopher) February 3, 2022

On the day the raid was announced, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said it was “confirmed” that al-Qurayshi blew himself up and scoffed at a reporter who asked for evidence. The reporter mentioned that some people are ‘skeptical” about US claims when it comes to civilian casualties. Psaki fired back and asked if the skeptics thought ISIS was providing more accurate information than the US military.

“Well, not ISIS, but, I mean, the US has not always been straightforward about what happens with civilians. And, I mean, that is a fact,” the reporter responded.

Even CNN is being forced to admit that the majority of Americans are deeply unimpressed with President Biden. 

With inflation continuing to soar – the latest numbers released this week have only confirmed that price pressures are spiraling out of control – 6 out of 10 Americans are telling pollsters that there’s literally nothing Biden has done during his presidency that they are happy with. The findings stem from a CNN Poll conducted by SSRS in January and February.

The latest poll numbers confirm that the president’s approval rating has fallen sharply over the past year, which has been marked by ongoing COVID-related restrictions and increasing price pressures (which Democrats memorably scoffed at when they were passing multiple trillion-dollars stimulus packages that economists have widely criticized as overkill).

Just 41% of respondents approved of the way Biden has handled his job while 58% disapproved, a “significant drop” from last January’s CNN polling. Unsurprisingly, dedicated Dems are still standing behind their man: Just 36% of independents and 9% of Republicans approved of Biden, while that number stood at 83% among Democrats. Last year, Biden’s approval among Dems was higher than 90%. Overwhelmingly, respondents said that Biden’s first year in office had been more of a failure than a success. 

The omicron wave and the inflation that started to pick up during the second half of last year have done by far the most damage to Biden’s credibility; his approval rating for handling the economy has dipped 8 points to 37% since early December. Meanwhile, his ratings for handling coronavirus have dropped 9 points to 45%.

When it comes to the best way forward for the US, Americans are deeply divided:  Nearly three-quarters of Democrats, 73%, said that stopping the spread should remain the highest priority. However, 72% of Republicans and 54% of independents – independents outnumber both registered Republicans and Democrats in the US by a sizable margin – said it was time to learn to live with the virus.

Looking ahead, Americans are overwhelmingly downbeat about the federal government and its ability to adequately represent their interests. The share of Americans who say they felt even somewhat well represented by the federal government remained low at 32%, and only 21% of Americans said they currently had a lot of confidence in Biden’s ability to provide real leadership for the country.

The share who said they had a lot of confidence in the President’s ability to work effectively with Congress has dropped by half since last March, from 32% to 15%, including a 28 percentage point drop among Democrats over that time.

Biden’s approval rating has been declining for some time now after an extremely brief post-election honeymoon. Polls show that President Trump’s favorability rating with the American public is currently higher than Biden’s. 

But, to put their approval numbers in a more appropriate context, Trump’s favorability was higher at this point in his presidency (despite the non-stop leaks from the Mueller probe).

That certainly doesn’t bode well for Democrats in Congress ahead of this November’s midterm…

A broad outage appears to have knocked some Twitter users off the platform around 1200 ET, according to Downdector. 

Some Twitter users are reporting they’ve been logged out of the platform, receiving this error: 

“Something went wrong, but don’t fret — it’s not your fault. Let’s try again.” 

Downdetector shows the first outages were reported around 1200 ET and continue to surge nearly one hour later. So far, 25,311 users have reported issues. 

The outage is widespread. 

Twitter’s API status reports multiple errors. 

“Identified – We’re experiencing an elevated level of API errors starting around 17:41 UTC and are currently investigating. The presence and scope of any customer impact has not been determined at this time, but we will provide an update as soon as we know more.”

*This story is developing. 

Authored by ‘NAMCIOS’ via BitcoinMagazine.com,

With Intel set to present an ASIC geared for bitcoin mining later this month, how will the computing giant reshape the industry’s landscape?

When news surfaced that one of the largest computer chip makers in the world, Intel, would give a presentation about an application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) geared for bitcoin mining at the International Solid-State Circuits Conference (ISSCC), a global forum for presentation of advances in solid-state circuits and systems-on-a-chip to be held online later this month, the first logical conclusion was that the company would be presenting a new chip it had developed specifically for the activity.

On the very next day, publicly-listed bitcoin miner GRIID disclosed that it had signed a purchase agreement with Intel for acquiring fixed-price bitcoin mining ASIC hardware from the chipmaker for orders placed before May 2023, in what appeared to be a move to secure access to Intel’s new chip to be presented at the upcoming conference.

However, Intel spokesperson Nicolas Mijuskovic indicated that the company has done design work around SHA-256 optimized ASICs “for several years,” and will not unveil a new ASIC at ISSCC in a statement shared with Bitcoin Magazine.

“The SHA-256 ASIC referred to in the paper being presented at ISSCC … was our first generation product exploration from 2018,” the Intel statement said.

In 2018, Intel released a patent for a “bitcoin mining hardware accelerator with optimized message digest and message scheduler datapath,” which outlined a more efficient way to find a valid block hash. It claimed to be able to decrease energy use by up to 35% while lowering financial requirements and mining more bitcoin in the process.

Intel will present the advances in its solid-state circuit designs for bitcoin mining that have been made since that patent was filed, but will not unveil a completely new ASIC. However, GRIID’s purchase is indeed for a new chip that is yet to be announced.

“The supply agreement released as part of required [U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission] SEC disclosures from our customer concerns the second-generation ASIC for which we will provide more details soon,” the Intel spokesperson added.

THE BITCOIN MINING INDUSTRY’S BIGGEST PAIN POINTS

Bitcoin Magazine talked with Fred Thiel, CEO of Marathon Digital Holdings, one of the largest publicly-traded bitcoin mining companies in the world, to gather some insights into the current shortcomings of the industry and what may help solve them in the near future.

“The market has been characterized over the last two years by constraints in availability of quality miners,” Thiel told Bitcoin Magazine, referring to the worldwide chip shortage since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020. Bitmain — which has been the quality and performance leader in the bitcoin miner manufacturing space since the introduction of its S19 mining rig — has solidified itself as the main ASIC maker in the world, Thiel added, helped by how the chip shortage has more dramatically impacted some of the tier-two suppliers.

“The only reason Bitmain has the position they have today is because of the availability of miners,” Thiel added.

“If there were no constraints on a basic way for starts at the foundries, you would see many more people in this industry and Bitmain would be one of many brands, and the competition would be around performance and cost of ownership, not around availability.”

Additionally, Bitmain has, for the most part, been able to provide the most energy-efficient miners in the world, catering to a need demonstrated by bitcoin mining companies that continually chase down the energy curve.

“We’re all very focused on being the most energy-efficient miners,” Thiel said.

“We will typically always chase the most energy-efficient miner because the less electricity we use, the less burden we put on the electrical infrastructure and the less it costs us to operate.”

COULD INTEL PROVIDE A SOLUTION?

New entrants in the industry like Intel could shake Bitmain’s comfortable position as the global leader in ASIC manufacturing by prompting more competition and likely leading to greater machine availability. The onset of new developments often push old-timers to pursue greater projects as it casts doubt on their ability to remain competitive without innovating.

“It’s about removing the constraints in the industry that existed and the kind of monopoly, or quasi-monopoly, that Bitmain has,” Thiel told Bitcoin Magazine, adding that Intel’s introduction as a new merchant silicon vendor “is good” as “it is a new foundry capacity.”

“So, it means more overall capacity in the marketplace,” Thiel said.

“Now that Intel has come out and started talking about it, you’re going to see other people wanting to protect their potential for market share by saying that they’re going to be in the market too.”

Thiel said that he expects a slew of vendors to start competing in the ASIC-producing industry in the coming year as new entrants try to obtain market share and pose competition to Bitmain.

Thiel didn’t provide more details, but hinted that there are three U.S.-based companies that have done ground-up designs and two more working on ground-up designs. There are also teams from major universities looking at ASIC manufacturing and design, he said.

If the entrance of these new companies in the industry materialize and the supply chain issues at the foundries start to resolve, hardware could commoditize, ensuing a race to low-cost hardware.

“And as hosting becomes more available because everybody is building out hosting capacity, I think what you’re going to find is there will be very little constraint around the growth rate of the global hash rate,” Thiel said. “Hardware will be readily available, hosting will be available and then it’s just a question of where is the price of bitcoin that is economically feasible to mine, and what price are you willing to pay to be in business today versus tomorrow versus next year?”

A STEEP RISE IN GLOBAL HASH RATE

If some constraints are removed from the industry, Bitcoin’s hash rate could grow immensely. As a result, profitability would diminish for new entrants seeking to mine BTC as the bitcoin-producing market gets more competitive, requiring players to have a greater share of the global hash rate to remain in business.

“It’s an arms race; there are only 900 bitcoin made per day currently, and there are a lot of people with a lot of capital chasing that,” Thiel told Bitcoin Magazine.

An even more competitive mining market could lead to alternative products being offered as barriers of entry increase the required amount of capital to be deployed for mining profitably.

“I think you are going to see growth in some of these hash rate derivatives,” Thiel said. “And as more demand for hash rate futures grows, then you’re going to see industrial miners selling portions of their hash rate for a few months to finance miners or other equipment, and that will be a way that people can play in this industry without even having to buy miners, they can just buy hash rate.”

Purchasing hash rate directly enables miners to compete in getting block rewards without needing to rent a huge physical space, secure 24/7 efficient hosting or acquire a lot of equipment upfront.

“At the end of the day, are you mining because you want to heat up your garage or are you mining because you want to earn bitcoin? And how do you want to go about paying potential for passive income relative to bitcoin mining? Do you want to do it as an investor by just buying hash rate futures, or investing in a public miner, or do you want to buy miners yourself and mine?” Thiel asked. “I think everybody is going to have to make that decision on their own and figure it out.”

It has been a whirlwind 24 hours in markets since yesterday’s torrid CPI print, which confirmed the highest inflation in 40 years, which was then followed by an even more extreme commentary from the Fed’s own windsock, James Bullard, who in remarks that have seen been called “immature” and “unprofessional” sparked a market panic with his calls for a 50bps rate hikes, an active sale of securities from the Fed’s balance sheet and even an intermeeting rate hike.

And despite a full-blown damage control offensive by both Fed speakers (Daly and Barkin), and the media – with CNBC’s Steve Liesman coming the closest to slamming Bullard as effectively having no idea what he is talking about – and downplaying Bullard’s “50bps green-light” (as well as talking-down an intermeeting move), we currently see Fed Funds futs at 70% odds of a 50bps March hike – which according to Nomura’s Charlie McElligott “forces the hand of the FOMC towards “hawkish asymmetry,” and who will have to “take what the market is giving them” and hike by 50bps in March, as it stands now” (although there is another CPI print before March so ‘data volatility’ remains)

Why?  Because anything less, according to the Nomura x-asset strategist, would not just shock markets in the other direction (in a way that would counterproductively “ease” financial conditions which is a 100 delta “non-starter” now as they are now forced “all-in” on tighter FCI, hence Real Yields to 1.5 yr highs), but would also undermine their credibility as “inflation fighters” in what has now become a massively politicized issue that is taxing all Americans and has the Fed in the crosshairs from all parties.

Nomura economist Rob Dent elaborates on this, noting that “one underappreciated aspect of yesterday’s surprise CPI numbers is their potential to worsen the national conversation around inflation. The press widely covered the upside surprise yesterday, and Google search activity suggests the general public also showed keen interesting. Moreover, significant increases in prices have become correlated with the percent of consumers reporting hearing bad news about higher prices in the University of Michigan survey.”

On the other hand, if the Fed wishes to avoid a 50bps initial hike shock, as it remains “scared of their own FCI shadows” with fed funds now pricing ~6.5 hikes by Dec YE Fed mtg, the “7 hikes in ‘22” option is the alternative path.

With all of this said, McElligott warns that if the Fed still tries to “slow-play it” now, and only goes 25bps in March due to legacy scar-tissue from prior market “tightening tantrums,” Rates traders “would probably wreck them for it and bury them further- because this latest inflation data has now finally seen majority capitulate to the view that the Fed is officially “behind-the-curve,” should have stopped QE in January when they first had the opportunity, and are now going to have to “double whammy” us with a more aggressive tightening path running alongside BS run-off, including maybe even outright sales.”

What about the possibility of an intermeeting emergency rate hike, an option which Bullard himself brought up?

According to Nomura, “it’s doubtful, because we are (really awkwardly) still in QE and buying bonds” which is why today’s 3pm POMO schedule release is a major risk-event to watch. Here Nomura repeats what we already mentioned yesterday:

FFG2 trade an overnight low of 99.8525, which would imply a 43% of an intermeeting 25bps hike today (or even higher probability if the assumed date is later this month). This makes the 3pm POMO schedule extra important as

• the only reason to not release it would be to get ready for intermeeting hike and the Fed would likely want to inform the market before hand (i.e not a surprise at 3pm on a Friday) and
• if it is released on schedule and the operations should stretch into early March and it should calm some of the intermeeting fears

So keep an eye on what the Fed says (or doesn’t say) at 3pm ET today: a new POMO schedule which concludes the tapering of QE on schedule some time in early March will likely spark a relief rally as at least an intermeeting rate hike is taken off the table. On the other hand, if the Fed decides to withhold publishing its final tapering timeline effectively ending QE today, then all bets are off.

Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,

• Analysts are turning increasingly bullish on oil, with some predicting prices to hit $120.

• The predictions come as fear of a potential invasion of Ukraine by Russia continues to mount.

• Russia is a major exporter to the European Union, but it is also a big exporter of crude oil to the United States.

There are already plenty of oil bulls out there, but another one has just joined them. Strategist David Roche said this week oil could hit $120 per barrel in case of a Russian invasion in Ukraine.

The Ukraine situation has been in the spotlight for weeks now, and one might argue that if Russia wanted to invade, it would have done so already, supporting the argument with the fact that Russia stands to gain nothing but risk a lot with such a move. On the other hand, it is a fact there are Russian troops and military equipment near the border with Ukraine, and this is naturally making not just Ukraine but Western Europe and the United States nervous, with the counter-argument being that Moscow is biding its time before it strikes.

As a whole, the Ukraine situation has highlighted Europe’s dependence on Russian natural gas and its desperate attempts in the past couple of weeks to secure alternatives to this supply in case of a cutoff. But, like any major geopolitical event, an escalation in Ukraine would also affect oil prices.

“I think if there was an invasion of Ukraine and there were to be sanctions which impeded either Russia’s access to foreign exchange mechanisms, messaging systems and so on, or which prevented them from exporting their commodities, either oil or gas or coal, I think at that point in time you would most certainly see oil prices at $120 [a barrel],” Roche told CNBC this week.

The issue of sanction fallout, both for Europe and for the United States, has surfaced as a big potential problem: Russia is a major exporter to the European Union, but it is also a big exporter of crude oil to the United States, not to mention all big European and U.S. businesses that have Russian operations.

Yet while an invasion remains a potential development, there seem to be enough actual developments in the oil sector that could see prices top $100 per barrel. Supply remains tight, and traders remain worried about it even as the latest forecasts about U.S. production strike an upbeat note.

The Energy Information Administration, for instance, recently projected that U.S. crude oil production should rise to 12 million bpd this year and 12.6 million bpd—a record-high—in 2023. At the end of last year, HIS Markit’s Daniel Yergin forecast U.S. oil production could add 900,000 bpd a day this year. For context, according to the EIA’s latest weekly petroleum report, production averaged 11.6 million bpd last week.

Other non-OPEC producers could also see higher production this year, including Brazil and Canada, but the situation in OPEC itself is a little more complicated. Most of the cartel’s members are having trouble boosting production as much as their new quotas call for. This has become the main reason for bullish oil price forecasts, in fact, as it has combined with strong—stronger than the IEA expected—demand for the commodity.

Only a handful of OPEC members can afford to add more barrels to total output. For now, those select few are demonstrating a reluctance to do so. Pressure from consuming countries will continue rising, however, with the White House saying this week that “all options were on the table” with regard to trying to rein in prices, including talks with oil-producing countries.

“Nobody should hold back supply at the expense of the American consumer, particularly as the recovery from the pandemic continues and oil producers around the world have the capacity to produce at levels that match demand and reduce the high prices.”

Russia is one of the producers struggling to boost production, but forecasters are noting this may change later in the year.

In the current supply context, handling the Ukraine situation without causing a global commodity-fueled economic crisis becomes even trickier.

With Fed speakers and their media proxies scrambling to walk-back St.Louis Fed’s Jim Bullard’s calls for an inter-meeting liftoff and uber-hawkish rate-hike trajectory, it is notable that all of a sudden, The Fed has called for an “Expedited, Closed” Board Meeting on Monday Feb 14th (at 1130amET).

The goal of the meeting is: “Review and determination by the Board of Governors of the advance and discount rates to be charged by the Federal Reserve Banks.”

We are sure this is ‘probably nothing’, right?

But it got us thinking about the last time The Fed held such a meeting…

In late November 2015, The Fed held an “expedited” meeting to “Review and determination by the Board of Governors of the advance and discount rates to be charged by the Federal Reserve Banks. “

Shortly thereafter, this happened… (The Fed hiked rates for the first time since 2006)

February rate-hike expectations have fallen today but remain elevated over recent norms…

So, will The Fed surprise the world on Monday?

When commenting on yesterday’s post-Bullard VaR Shocknado, we pointed to the stunning move in 2Y rates which jumped by 22bps – a move the kinds of which we last saw when Bear Stearns wasn’t fine.

And while there were more charts addressing the historical context of yesterday’s bond rout in our market wrap on Thursday, this morning DB’s Jim Reid has truly excelled in showing just how striking the market reaction was to two one-two punch of soaring CPI and Bullard’s “unprofessional” comments, with the following two charts.

First, the dramatic US curve flattening yesterday, meant that US 2s10s dipped below the German equivalent for the first time since the pandemic hit. The market is getting comfortable that while the Fed is likely to be aggressive upfront on hikes, the ECB will be more measured.  As such Reid notes that “there is probably more concern about the sustainability of the US cycle than the European one at the moment.” On this measure the US has flattened -36.5bps YTD and the German curve has actually steepened +17bps.

Second, and more important, yesterday’s 2yr US move (+21.4bps) was a truly historic event. Similar to the October spike in Australian front-end rates, which was a 6 standard deviation event, Reid compares the standard deviation of daily moves with the movement seen over the previous 12 months, and finds that yesterday’s was the biggest “shock” since October 1979 when Volcker announced his intentions on the world (a couple of months after taking office) with an inter-meeting weekend hike.

I suppose like the Aussie market this is a feature when forward guidance gets attacked. If the Fed hadn’t still been in a position where they were systematically winding down QE before hiking rates then they would likely have already raised a few months ago. As such when the dam breaks, the water floods aggressively through.

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit news,

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau attempted to justify COVID-19 mandates by saying the restrictions were a way of preventing future restrictions.

Yes, really.

During a parliamentary debate, Liberal MP Joel Lightbound slammed his own party for not presenting a “roadmap” out of restrictions.

He also accused the government of weaponizing the restrictions to “wedge and stigmatize” those who are refusing to comply with the mandates.

“What a lot of the anxiety and frustration in the population lies with the fact that some people… are afraid that certain measures are being normalized and that these measures shouldn’t be normalized, that they should be extraordinary and limited in time,” said Lightbound.

“I think that would go a long way in alleviating some of the frustration, and some of the division in our society and some of the polarization. That’s essential going forward,” he added.

Trudeau responded by essentially saying people needed to comply with the mandates, particularly vaccine passports, to prevent future mandates.

“Canadians got vaccinated. I can understand frustrations with mandates but mandates are the way to avoid further restrictions,” said Trudeau.

In other words, sacrifice your freedoms in order to get your freedoms back.

Makes perfect sense!

Meanwhile, Trudeau continues to hide from Freedom Convoy truckers who are occupying downtown Ottawa as the media relentlessly demonizes them as racists and violent extremists.

Former Obama admin undersecretary of Homeland Security Juliette Kayyem yesterday called for violence against the protesters.

“Slash the tires, empty gas tanks, arrest the drivers, and move the trucks,” she tweeted.

Respondents pointed out that moving massive trucks might be difficult if they have slashed tires and no gas.

Can you elaborate on your brilliant plan to “move” trucks with no tires and no gas off of a bridge?

— Stephen L. Miller (@redsteeze) February 10, 2022

*  *  *

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Though it’s unclear what precisely on the ground has actually changed, President Biden is urging all Americans in Ukraine to “leave now”. “American citizens should leave now,” Biden said while discussing the Russian troop build-up threatening Ukraine in a new NBC News interview. 

The president warned that “things could go crazy quickly” in the region and so it’s necessary that US citizens initiate plans to depart the country immediately. He further described in the interview set to air in full later in the day, “It’s not like we’re dealing with a terrorist organization. We’re dealing with one of the largest armies in the world. It’s a very different situation and things could go crazy quickly.”

However, elsewhere in the interview he suggested that it’s anything but certain that President Putin has made his intentions clear. Biden told NBC that if if Putin “foolish enough to go in, he’s smart enough not to …do anything that would negatively impact on American citizens.”

Earlier this week the Pentagon revealed plans to stage a logistics operation along the Polish-Ukrainian border, just inside Poland, that would assist in any potential large-scale evacuation of US citizens from Ukraine in the event of a Russian invasion. Biden addressed the possibility further with NBC:

Biden said during his NBC interview that “there’s not” a situation that could prompt him to send US troops to rescue Americans attempting to exit Ukraine, adding, “That’s a world war when Americans and Russia start shooting at one another.”

Already some 2,000 additional US troops have been sent from Fort Bragg and Germany to Poland in order to put in place the necessary logistics for an evacuation. 

Meanwhile, the US State Department is still warning against all American travel to Ukraine. Further it re-issued a travel advisory from last month citing “increased threats of Russian military action” which makes it necessary for US citizens to depart. 

President Joe Biden said on Thursday #US 🇺🇸 citizens should leave #Ukraine 🇺🇦 now due to the “increased threats of Russian military action” against the country.

The warning comes after #Russia and #Belarus launched joint military drills on Thursday ⤵️ pic.twitter.com/thTlCtGLEW

— FRANCE 24 English (@France24_en) February 11, 2022

The advisory warns Americans they must “be aware that the US government will not be able to evacuate US citizens in the event of Russian military action anywhere in Ukraine.” 

Without doubt, the US administration still has the Afghan evacuation deadly debacle looming in the background. There’s still said to be US citizens and dual nationals stuck in Taliban-run Afghanistan as a result of efforts which were too little, too late. 

US thinks it can run the world with this CEO at the helm… https://t.co/IQTp2uZkHu

— Ron Paul Institute (@RonPaulInstitut) February 11, 2022

Ukraine’s government has at the same time sought to cool the Washington rhetoric, saying it’s causing unnecessary panic within Ukraine’s population. Likely Kiev will not be too happy with Biden’s latest words telling Americans to depart the country, which Zelensky himself has said is premature and overly alarmist.