“Shame On Us” – Emotional Georgia Mom Begs School Board: “Take These Masks Off My Child”

“Shame On Us” – Emotional Georgia Mom Begs School Board: “Take These Masks Off My Child”

While Facebook, Instagram, Snapchat, and Twitter are chock full of virtue-signaling sheep declaring their double, triple, quadruple masking efforts; their personal sacrifices for the greater good of all mankind (against a virus that leave 99.7% of those infected unharmed); and blindly following the ‘science’ from political operatives who need a crisis to drive their agenda; one Georgia mom has had enough.

Instead of virtue-signaling to the world, Georgia mother Courtney Ann Taylor blasted Gwinnett County Board of Education members for requiring children to wear masks despite evidence that kids are largely safe from COVID-19, demanding, “take these masks off of my child.”

Taylor slammed the board who for months have proclaimed the importance of “social, emotional health” telling them, “if you truly mean that, you would end the mask requirement tonight. Tonight.”

“This is not March 2020 anymore,” the mom of a 6-year-old rage…

“We have three vaccines, every adult in the state of Georgia that wants that vaccine is eligible to get it, right now, and every one of us knows that young children are not affected by this virus.”

“They’re not,” Taylor said, as she began to get emotional, “and that’s a blessing.”

“But as the adults what have we done with that blessing? We’ve shoved it to the side and we’ve said we don’t care, ‘You’re still gonna wear a mask on your face every day, 5 and 6-year-olds, you still can’t play together on the playground like normal children, 7 and 8-year-olds,’” she said.

“We don’t care. We are still going to force you to carry a burden that was never yours to carry. Shame on us,” she said.

“It is April 15, 2021, and it’s time,” Taylor said angrily.

“Take these masks off of my child.”

If you’re a parent of a child in school, we dare you to watch this without becoming enraged… and emotional (perhaps it was allergies)…

Make it stop!

Tyler Durden
Fri, 04/23/2021 – 16:40

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3dITHht Tyler Durden

The Worrisome 1999 Vibe To Markets

The Worrisome 1999 Vibe To Markets

Authored by Tobias Levkovich, Chief US Equity Strategy at Citi since 2001, op-ed via The Financial Times,

For equity markets, the parallels between current conditions and those of 1999 are striking and worrisome.

The investor mood in markets has been in ebullient territory since last November, when high-efficacy vaccine news lifted spirits as a budding light at the end of the tragic pandemic tunnel.

That is the signal from Citigroup’s gauge of investor sentiment – the Panic/Euphoria Model – which takes into account factors including the amount of investor positions anticipating a fall in stocks, the level of funds borrowed to purchase securities and commodity price futures.

The last time we saw such an upbeat zeitgeist that did not coincide with an immediate equity market correction was in 1999 when the dotcom bubble was in full bloom.

Typically in the past, when our gauge is at such high levels, it would indicate a 100 per cent probability of lower share prices over the next 12 months. This is despite the current powerful US economic growth expectations buoyed by fiscal stimulus and business reopening.

The notion that “this time is different” can be noted in various institutional client conversations. A pliant US Federal Reserve, massive consumer savings, substantial free cash flow generation, powerful government spending, money on the sidelines with negative real bond yields are the fodder that allegedly can sustain the rally even after a gain of nearly 90 per cent from 2020 lows.

A significant and recent recovery of equity inflows also is boosting shares due to ‘fomo’ (fear of missing out) for professional asset allocators: ‘fomu” (fear of meaningfully underperforming). As such there is an element of trend-following, or “chasing the tape”.

Yet, the US household sector’s ownership of equities as a per cent of their financial assets is hovering at 50-year highs and, as a result, it is difficult to argue that Americans are underinvested.

Additionally, our late-March poll of money managers showed median cash as a proportion of assets under management had dipped to 3.5 per cent from 10.0 per cent a year earlier, and is below the historical average of 5.0 per cent. Thus, it appears that most investors are all in already.

While bottom-up consensus estimates are calling for 20 per cent earnings growth for the S&P 500 companies to $174 per share this year, many think upside surprises are likely given predicted rapid GDP growth and cost efficiency initiatives undertaken by management teams during Covid-related shutdowns. Furthermore, we believe that stocks are baking in growth of around 30 per cent to something closer to $190 per share, leaving little room for disappointment.

Our “lead margin indicator” on profitability — based on surveys by trade group NFIB on the ability to raise prices relative to rising input costs — implies that there could be trouble ahead. 

Additionally, the feeling is palpable that every development is being treated as good news even though higher corporate taxes could bite into the earnings expansion thesis.

While determining the catalyst for changes in market direction and timing them can prove tricky, vulnerabilities exist and therefore chasing the rally does not appear to be prudent now.

Investors will also need to take into account the rotation away from so-called growth companies towards more undervalued stocks. Secular growth companies account for as much as 55 per cent of the market capitalisation of the S&P 500 index while value stocks in the cyclical and financial sectors comprise less than 30 per cent. Hence, the overall index could slip some (up to 10 per cent) because of the weight differential, but stock pickers still do well.  Note that in the first quarter this year, almost 33 per cent of the S&P 500 constituents beat the market by more than 10 per cent, suggesting it is not just a few names that can make or break a portfolio. Moreover, in the fourth quarter of last year, 37 per cent did the same. In this context, it is less about the index and more about the stocks within it.

Given this less-than-compelling backdrop, we contend that one may be best off looking at companies that have pricing power (to offset labour or input expense escalation) as well as those names that have strong balance sheets and offer better than average dividend yields.

There is also a procyclical bias to our investing approach. We particularly favour areas encompassing capital goods, financials and leisure. In the latter, explosive demand should evolve as inoculations allow people to move about more freely and indulge in the activities they have sorely missed.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 04/23/2021 – 16:20

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Stocks & Bonds Shrug Off Biden Battering, Dollar & Cryptos Tumble

Stocks & Bonds Shrug Off Biden Battering, Dollar & Cryptos Tumble

Today’s sudden panic-bid at the US cash open, dragged stocks back to unchanged-ish on the week (Small Caps outperformed, ending up around 1% on the week after being down 4% by Tuesday close)…

Recovering all of yesterday’s Biden Tax Plan losses, until the late-day tumble…

So, aside from paying away over 50% of your capital gains to fund gawd-knows-what social justice agenda, on the week, you get nothing too… and like it…

Nasdaq’s trading patterns this week were somewhat comical…

Healthcare stocks outperformed on the week as Energy stocks lagged…

Source: Bloomberg

Growth and Value stocks were unable to distinguish themselves this week, ramping back to unch today…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasuries ended the week practically unchanged after roundtripping up and down around 4bps either way on the week…

Source: Bloomberg

10Y has traded in a very tight range the last three days…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar dived again this week – to its lowest since Feb – and we note an interesting pattern at the EU open where the dollar was dumped every day… This was the 3rd weekly drop in a row, the longest such losing streak since December

Source: Bloomberg

The Turkish Lira tumbled back near record lows after Biden announced he would call Armenian massacre a genocide…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos were down for the second week in a row with Ripple worst and Ethereum the bad horse in the glue factory…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin broke back below $50k and made all the headlines but we note that this is the 4th such plunge the leading cryptocurrency has suffered in the last 8 months and each previous one has seen dip-buyers move in rapidly…

Source: Bloomberg

But by the end of the day, bitcoin was back above $50k…

Source: Bloomberg

Ether outperformed on the week, reaching a new record high before today’s tumble, but relative to bitcoin, it’s at its highest since Auguest 2018…

Source: Bloomberg

Crude was down on the week as copper rebounded, with PMs flat, after taking a hit today…

Gold futures failed to top $1800…

WTI ended the week on a higher note but down overall, closing around $62…

 

Finally, after this morning’s surge in PMIs, it is now clear that once again the world is awash in “hope” as ‘soft’ survey data is dramatically decoupling from ‘hard’ real economic data…

Source: Bloomberg

Tyler Durden
Fri, 04/23/2021 – 16:00

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Biden Informs Incensed Erdogan Of Armenian Genocide Recognition In Friday Phone Call

Biden Informs Incensed Erdogan Of Armenian Genocide Recognition In Friday Phone Call

On Friday President Biden informed Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in a phone call that the White House will formally recognize the Armenian genocide on Saturday.

Biden is expected to for the first time specifically invoke the word “genocide” in the Saturday commemoration of Armenian Genocide Remembrance Day, which will make him the first ever US president to do so. 

Via AP

This has been among the most controversial topics in modern Turkish society, and throughout past decades, which is subject in some cases to criminal prosecution by the Turkish state. And it remains a Turkish ‘red line’ for which all the country’s recent modern leaders have reacted fiercely at the mere suggestion, and which only thirty countries in the world officially acknowledge. The Untied States will now the be the 31st, and likely more will follow the example of the Biden move. 

A no doubt stung and angry Turkish leader had this statement following the tense call, which simply acknowledged the two leaders spoke on a “constructive bilateral relationship with expanded areas of cooperation and effective management of disagreements” – yet without recognizing the contentious Armenian issue. 

Given this will see US-Turkey relations spiral further downward, the Turkish lira plunged to its weakest point since November on the news Friday afternoon

As Bloomberg notes, the lira fell as much as 1% to 8.4050 per dollar Friday afternoon, which is “the weakest level since March 30, after report that President Biden tells his Turkish counterpart Erdogan that he will call Armenian Massacre a genocide.”

Congressional leaders as well as Armenian-Americans have for decades lobbied for greater recognition of the event which was carried out by the Young Turk government during the World War I period. It saw the the mass systematic killing of over one million Armenians in Asia Minor from 1915-1917 at the end of the Ottoman Empire. Hundreds of thousands of Greek and Assyrian Christians were also slaughtered in the name of achieving ‘Turkification’.  However, the term itself has for years been banned in Turkey’s parliamenand results in swift crackdowns and legal measures for any journalist wishing to write about it within the country. 

Turkey’s longtime pressure campaign has worked in many Western countries. For example, the Trump administration had blocked a 2019 bipartisan Congressional effort to pass legislation recognizing the Armenian genocide. Thus Biden’s recognition will mark a major break from all predecessors, who didn’t want to rile relations with the powerful NATO ally. 

Tyler Durden
Fri, 04/23/2021 – 15:45

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21 Remarkable Stats For ’21

21 Remarkable Stats For ’21

In his latest Flow Show report, Bank of America’s Chief Investment Strategist, Michael Hartnett has compiled 21 remarkable statistics for 2021, which we republish below.

1 billion: COVID-19 vaccines will be administered as of 24th April 2021

3 million: global deaths from COVID-19.

60 million: global deaths from all causes in 2019; global births 140 million.

14 million: US job gains since May’20, follows 22 million lost during COVID-19 pandemic.

$30 trillion: global policy stimulus in ’20 & ’21 ($17tn fiscal + $13tn monetary).

201: central bank interest rate cuts since Feb’20 (989 since GFC).

$1 billion: central banks purchased $1bn of financial assets every hour since Feb’20 ($21tn since GFC).

$0.4 trillion: QE in ‘22, down from $3.4tn in ’21 & $8.5tn in ’20.

$78,591: US national debt per taxpayer in ’25 (debt to equal $27tn).

1%: global market cap of Bitcoin & other cryptocurrencies ($2.3tn) as % of global equities ($112tn) and bonds ($118tn).

$4.5 trillion: issuance of US Treasuries in ’21 set to easily exceed GDP of Germany.

Q1’21: worst first quarter return ever for 30-year Treasury, worst for IG bonds since 1980, worst for gold since 1982.

$51 trillion: gain in global equity market cap since Mar’20 lows (fastest/largest rally all-time).

$8.2 trillion: market cap of Apple ($2.2tn) + Microsoft ($1.9tn) + Amazon ($1.7tn) + Google ($1.5tn) + Facebook ($0.9tn) = all Emerging Markets ($8.2tn, population 6 billion).

1557: # of stocks in MSCI ACWI index (3042 constituents) currently in bear market (20% below their all-time high).

29%: US bank stocks record 29% above 200dma

$602 billion: inflow to global stocks past 5 months exceeds inflow of prior 12 years ($452bn).

64.3%: BofA private client allocation to equities at record highs

64.7: ISM manufacturing PMI highest since 1984.

59%: YoY gain in BAC credit card data (barometer for US consumer spending – week ended April 10th).

52%: YoY gain in US used car prices & US house prices +17% YoY highest ever …both lead barometers for US inflation.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 04/23/2021 – 15:30

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6 Rioters Arrested For Defacing Central Park Monument In NYC’s Latest “Peaceful” Protest

6 Rioters Arrested For Defacing Central Park Monument In NYC’s Latest “Peaceful” Protest

As far-left activists work to provoke as much public outrage as possible over the killing in Columbus, Ohio, of teenager Ma’Khia Bryant, the latest police-involved killing to make national news, a relatively small but determined crowd of rioters attacked NYC’s Columbus Circle Thursday night, defacing monuments while chanting “f**k the police.”

Ultimately, six people were arrested, including one protester who tried to flee in a cab, only for it to be surrounded by police. The arrests all took place near the USS Maine National Monument in Columbus Circle, which was defaced with graffiti reading “ACAB” – ie “all cops are bastards” – and “f**k 12” which essentially means “f**k the police.”

In one magical one point, they group of about 100 protesters stopped outside the New York Times building in Times Square to shout “F**k the New York Times!”

“Stonewall was a riot,” was also sprayed in pink font, according to the New York Post report on the riot. Video shared to social media showed a handful of protesters climbing the vandalized monument, which sits at the entrace to Central Park, waving flags and shouting slogans.

According to the NY Post, the crowd grew out of a weekly gathering of queer activists in Greenwich Village. The group, known as “the Stonewall Protests” bills itself as a “black queer and trans activists centered on the acknowledgment of all black life.” according to an Instagram post. The protest was billed as “the March on Broadway” according to social media posts.

The NYPD condemned the incident in a series of social media posts condemning the vandalism and exclaiming that defacing statues is not an act of “protest”.

Videos also showed protests pushing and shoving police as a swarm of officers attempted to make arrests. Some of the demonstrators shouted at them, “Disgrace!” and “What is wrong with you?”

Tyler Durden
Fri, 04/23/2021 – 15:16

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3dJBn7O Tyler Durden

Wokeness Reaches The Final Frontier: NASA Shifts Focus To Space ‘Diversity’

Wokeness Reaches The Final Frontier: NASA Shifts Focus To Space ‘Diversity’

Authored by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com,

Are you ready for this week’s absurdity?

Here’s our Friday roll-up of the most ridiculous stories from around the world that are threats to your liberty, risks to your prosperity… and on occasion, inspiring poetic justice.

Drug overdose deaths surged during lockdowns

The rate of US drug overdose deaths surged during the pandemic lockdowns, accounting for up to nearly 20,000 additional deaths.

The CDC measures the number of US drug overdose deaths over the previous year. In September of 2019, 68,757 people had died of a drug overdose in the previous year.

By September 2020, the number of deaths in the previous year rose to 87,203.

The biggest leap in deaths (+3,643) occurred between April and May 2020— just after lockdowns began in most of the US.

The CDC also notes that these numbers may be “Underreported due to incomplete data.” In other words, it’s likely that thousands more drug overdose deaths were ‘erroneously’ counted as COVID-19 deaths…

Click here to read the data from the CDC.

NASA shifts goal from space exploration to space diversity

NASA has been a driving force of scientific innovation and advancement ever since its creation in the 1950s.

After more than six decades of space exploration, you’d think NASA would be an organization free of petty politics and idiotic logic.

As an agency dedicated to the future, for example, one might imagine that NASA’s top priority would be hiring the brightest, most talented people they can find, irrespective of irrelevant characteristics like skin color, gender, or sexual orientation.

Sadly this is not the case.

Science is once again taking a back seat with the agency’s “Artemis Project,” whose goal is “to land the first woman and first person of color on the Moon.”

Again, it seems like NASA wouldn’t notice or care what’s swinging (or not swinging) between someone’s legs.

If the entire crew of the next voyage happens to consist exclusively of people who identify as seedless watermelons, because those are the most qualified individuals for the mission, then it shouldn’t matter. It shouldn’t even make the news.

But instead they’re going to spend $86 billion of taxpayer money to show the world how woke they are.

Click here to read the full story.

China creates “Rumor Refutation Platform”

A new app and hotline allow Chinese citizens to more easily report their neighbors to the government for having “mistaken opinions.”

The “Rumor Refutation Platform” allows users to report rumors and false information which go contradict the Chinese Communist Party. The party will determine what is truth in categories such as science, history, and of course, current political affairs.

China believes this will, “improve the ability of readers to identify rumors and false information.”

Officials “hope that most internet users will play an active role in supervising society…and enthusiastically report harmful information.”

Harmful information includes “distorting, slandering and denying Party, national, and military history. . . in an attempt to confuse people’s thinking.”

In other words, it’s anything that goes against the official narrative.

How jealous the US twitter mob must be.

Click here to read China’s official press release.

Covid Hypocrites: Michigan Governor and two officials caught traveling

The Governor of Michigan, Gretchen Whitmer, has been one of the strictest governors in enforcing lockdowns.

She still tells residents to only travel out of absolute necessity.

But she decided it was fine for her to travel to Florida before she was vaccinated to see her father.

She has a great excuse— he’s ill. Too bad that was no excuse for the peasants.

Even worse, two of Whitmer’s top administration officials traveled recently for vacations.

One was the director of the Department of Health and Human Services— the very department issuing the warnings not to travel!

Another took a spring trip to the state of Florida, while Whitmer specifically encouraged people NOT to go to Florida for spring break.

I guess those rules don’t apply to important bureaucrats.

Click here to read the full story.

Cheese is racist

At a local council meeting in the UK discussing food choices in schools, a member of Extinction Rebellion environmental group said:

“Arguably, there is a racist element to serving dairy too much because 65 per cent of the world’s population are lactose intolerant, many from the BAME (black, Asian and minority ethnic) community.”

She has started a petition to offer only plant based meals at council run events, and introduce at least two meat-free school lunch days per week in all public schools.

That will apparently be better for the planet, and less racist.

But it’s also about the pandemic: “intensive animal farming poses a significant threat for the development of new pandemics.”

So clearly a ban on meat in the name of Covid-19 is appropriate.

Click here to read the full story.

Teacher who raised money for charity facing $16,000 tax bill

No good deed goes unpunished when it comes to the government.

A Connecticut teacher used Facebook to raise over $40,000 for things like rental assistance and groceries for needy families in his community affected by Covid-19.

Then in January, he received a 1099 form from Facebook stating that he could owe as much as $16,000 in taxes for collecting the charity money.

Facebook tells users that they report to the government when over $20,000 is raised. And without being a registered tax-exempt charity, the government will want a cut.

The teacher has been forced to hire a local tax attorney, and says he expects to pay some amount of taxes on the money, but hopefully not the full $16,000.

Let’s make sure poor people are dependent on the government, and punish good Samaritans who take matters into their own hands.

Click here to read the full story.

Nextdoor launches anti-racism notification to prevent discriminatory language

The website Nextdoor.com is used by community members to share information about their neighborhood.

Now the app is launching tools to help people sensor themselves if they accidentally try to post something racist, like, “All lives matter.”

The company’s announcement explains:

“The new anti-racism notification detects certain phrases such as “All Lives Matter” or “Blue Lives Matter,” and prompts the author to consider editing their post or comment before it goes live.”

“All Lives Matter and Blue Lives Matter content is explicitly prohibited on Nextdoor when used to undermine racial equality or the Black Lives Matter movement.”

Click here to read the full blog post.

*  *  *

On another note… We think gold could DOUBLE and silver could increase by up to 5 TIMES in the next few years. That’s why we published a new, 50-page long Ultimate Guide on Gold & Silver that you can download here.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 04/23/2021 – 15:01

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3es6zrp Tyler Durden

International Media Confirms Pullout Of Russian Troops From Crimea & Ukraine Border

International Media Confirms Pullout Of Russian Troops From Crimea & Ukraine Border

Russia has given further confirmation Friday of a major troop reduction underway in its southern region, causing Ukraine and regional powers to breath a sigh of relief. Russia’s defense ministry still blamed the United States for this month’s escalation in tensions which has driven world headlines. As Reuters reports, the statement indicated the “troop pullback had nothing to do with ties with Washington or a possible Biden-Putin summit and blamed the United States for the dire state of relations, saying that Moscow wanted to revive bilateral ties.”

It’s the first on the ground confirmation following Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu’s Thursday declaration that the major Crimea and Black sea war drills had been completed and that troops would be ordered back to their permanent bases. “Russia on Friday said troops from its southern military district and airborne troops that took part in the snap inspection were beginning to rebase,” Reuters notes of the latest announcement.

Via TASS

“It said that military units and formations were marching to railway loading stations and airfields and aired footage of armoured vehicles boarding landing ships on a beach and other military vehicles being loaded onto trains. Soldiers were shown marching onto a military aircraft,” the report continues. 

It’s further being called a “confirmed pullout of the troops” which is likely to be “welcomed by Western countries” which had been threatening Moscow that any offensive into eastern Ukraine will be met with a swift response. 

Over the past month there’ve been growing fears that a major regional conflict could break out, especially after both Kiev and Washington accused Russia of mustering even more troops near war-torn Donbass than during 2014, which was at the start and height of the conflict between pro-Russian separatists and Ukrainian national forces near breakaway Donetsk and Luhansk.

Speculation has been rampant and the actual numbers of additional Russian troops near Ukraine over the past three weeks has differed wildly – from claims of multiple tens of thousands to 100,000 – and all the way up to fantastical projections of 150,000. It remains unclear to what degree Russia will fully draw down these ‘extra’ forces near Ukraine’s border and in Crimea. 

Ukraine’s President Zelensky also appears to have confirmed the major troop reduction near the border…

It’s likely that some level of an additional remnant of military units and hardware from the latest ramped up drills will remain in this southern Russian region, which will likely continue to rile Kiev and its external backers in NATO.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 04/23/2021 – 14:45

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“Our Bullish Conviction Is Now Lower”: JPM Joins Major Banks In Turning Bearish On “Easy” Market Gains

“Our Bullish Conviction Is Now Lower”: JPM Joins Major Banks In Turning Bearish On “Easy” Market Gains

On Tuesday, JPM chief global markets strategist and Wall Street’s biggest bull, Marko Kolanovic, said in a note on Tuesday that the recent pullback in areas like cyclical stocks and Treasury yields will soon prove to be temporary, and that in his view, “the reflation and reopening trade will resume, with yields moving higher and rotation from growth, quality and defensives to value and cyclicals. Beneficiaries will include Energy, Financials, Materials, Industrials, small caps, high beta stocks, and various reopening and inflation themes.”

Kolanovic also said that these developments “are not priced in, as we can see a strong reaction on incremental news flow related to reopening and COVID-19” and that it is likely that the move “will accelerate as we go into late spring and summer with reopening of economies.”

To illustrate his point, Kolanovic then showed the following chart where on the horizontal axis he showed bond yields as a proxy measure of reflation/reopening and on the vertical axis the performance of various equity market segments, writing that “as the COVID-19 recovery takes place, reopening, reflation and inflation themes, and value likely will significantly outperform growth and defensives. Note that factor volatility increases (relative to market volatility) with rising yields and declining market volatility.”

Late on Thursday, Kolanovic appeared on CNBC to bring his message to the masses in a 6 minute hit whose message can best be summarized with Kolanovic saying that “It’s time to buy the dip.”

Alas, all of Marko’s fancy chartwork and the CNBC pitch were for nothing, because just one day after Kolanovic urged CNBC’s viewers to rush and buy the “dip” – which we assume is what JPM staffers call the S&P trading 1% below its all time high – one of Marko’s Croatian JPM colleagues, Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, joined the bearish bandwagon we described previously and which now includes such bank as Morgan Stanley, Goldman and Deutsche Bank, when following yesterday’s market puke on Biden’s capital gains tax news from Bloomberg (which as we said wasn’t new at all but a rehash of information that was publicly available since last fall), the other JPM strategist said that after “aggressively pushing the upside case for equities” for the last 12 months, and arguing “for a continued melt-up  with S&P 500 reaching 4,000 in 1Q and the majority of the upside to our year-end PT of 4,400 being realized during 1H”, the JPM chief equity strategist – which reportedly puts him higher in the JPM chain of command that Kolanovic – said that “easy equity gains for the broad market are likely behind us” and as a result JPMorgan’s “bullish conviction is now lower.”

But why the sudden reversal, and just hours after Marko Kolanovic was out there urging everyone to do the opposite and just BTFD? It turns out, the catalyst for JPM’s newly found skepticism is the the same reason for Marko’s endless optimism – higher yields.

Here is Lakos-Bujas:

As the second phase of global reopening gets confirmed by a pickup in mobility and pent-up demand, we expect yields to retrace higher thereby constraining the equity multiple with S&P 500 entering a period of consolidation. On March 8th, we argued the risk-reward for the Growth trade had tactically improved after the February Momentum crash and Growth derisking. Since then Growth has strongly outperformed, but mainly defensive/bond-proxy Growth, making this segment again vulnerable to rates.

But… wait a minute. Just on Tuesday Kolanovic said that higher rates – or rather yields, which of course is the same – is a bullish thing, to wit:

Our view is that the reflation and reopening trade will resume, with yields moving higher and rotation from growth, quality and  defensives to value and cyclicals. Beneficiaries will include Energy, Financials, Materials, Industrials, small caps, high beta stocks, and various reopening and inflation themes.

So to summarize, higher yields, er rates, are both bullish and bearish? Apparently at JPmorgan, the answer is yes, and the above is just another great example of how Wall Street goalseeks each and every datapoint to its own advantage.

In any case, after JPMorganwas euphorically bullish through Thursday night and urging everyone to buy the 1% dip in the S&P from all time highs because higher yields, on Friday everything changed, and JPMorgan now expects the equity multiple of the S&P 500 to be constrained, push the market to a ‘”priod of consolidation” because – you guessed it – higher yields.

To be sure there is more, with JPM suddenly also concerned about “further out” catalysts such as monetary policy normalization (i.e. tapering) and higher corporate taxes “both of which have emerged as the largest risks for equities” but none of these are actual news to either JPM of the bank’s clients, as it was JPMorgan which first flagged both Fed tapering and higher taxes as a risk months ago, so how the bank suddenly decided that these well-known triggers are now, a reason to worry about stocks, remains a mystery.

Clearly one can just stop reading here, since what will follow is just more noise and no signal – actually, we take that back as we explain at the end of this post – but for those who are curious how JPM goalseeks higher yields first as super bullish and then as a reason to no longer expect “easy equity gains”, read on for the key excerpts from Dubravko’s report:

Higher yields should drive another rotation back into reopening and epicenter plays from yield-sensitive low-vol stocks. In particular, we would again highlight Consumer Recovery plays, Energy, Financials, non-US (e.g. EM) and SMid stocks. Investors will need to be more selective in the second phase of global reopening as some stocks (e.g. airlines) appear rich while others still have strong upside (e.g. retail, oil producers, banks, consumer tech). We recommend investors take this opportunity to revisit our COVID-19 recovery themes, and in particular the International Recovery Basket, which has not only lagged the Domestic Recovery Basket but has reversed most of its relative gains YTD.

Looking further out, we see monetary policy normalization (i.e. indication of tapering) and higher corporate taxes as the largest risks for equities. There is also a potential risk from higher capital gains tax if we get indication that it will materialize and go into effect starting next year (vs. retroactive to 2021) causing certain investors to take profits early. However, this proposal would be contentious and likely to face significant opposition.

With respect to corporate taxes, S&P 500 companies are now better positioned to absorb a potential tax increase given: (1) robust economic and earnings recovery; (2) elevated corporate cash balance of $2.1T ex-financials (up 28% vs. 4Q19); (3) partial offset from large NOL balance of ~$290B; and (4) the spending component of the plan should boost aggregate demand.

Obviously, there are significant unknowns including time, scope, and probability of any successful legislation. Since it is much easier to spend than increase taxes in DC, some are even suggesting little or nothing will get done. Regardless, this will remain a topic for investors for some time.

While there is a bunch more in the full report, including some assumptions and pretty charts on the implication of Biden’s American Jobs Plan and Made in America Tax Plan on S&P 500 earnings, the key message is simple:

While we think the equity and business cycles should remain intact on global reopening and strong earnings recovery, easy equity gains for the broad market are likely behind us. Our bullish conviction is now lower. As the second phase of global reopening gets confirmed by a pickup in mobility and pent-up demand, we expect yields to retrace higher thereby constraining the equity multiple with S&P 500 entering a period of consolidation.

Which probably means no more bullish hits for Kolanovic on CNBC for at least a few weeks, when the S&P will either break out above 4,400 forcing JPM to once again turn ravingly bullish, or stocks indeed fall. Which, however, we find unlikely for one simple reason: as we said first thing this morning when we read JPM’s report, “JPM has joined the bearish bandwagon, there is no big bank that is bullish on stocks in the mid-term.” The implication is simple: stocks will go up…

… and sure enough, the S&P is on pace to close at a new all time high.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 04/23/2021 – 14:30

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3xkpD3v Tyler Durden

CDC “Looking At” Whether Masks Are Still Needed Outdoors

CDC “Looking At” Whether Masks Are Still Needed Outdoors

Authored by Mimi Nguyen Ly via The Epoch Times,

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is “looking at” whether people should continue to wear masks outdoors amid the pandemic.

“This is a question that we’re looking at,” CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said on the “Today” show when asked about the matter. “One of the things I think that’s really important to understand is, while there’s wonderful news and we’re getting more and more people vaccinated every single day, we still had 57,000 cases of COVID yesterday, we still had 733 deaths.

“And so now, we are really trying to scale up vaccination. We have this complex message that we still have hot spots in this country. And we will be looking at the outdoor masking question but it’s also in the context of the fact that we still have people who are dying of COVID.”

CDC Director Rochelle Walensky speaks to reporters after visiting the Hynes Convention Center FEMA Mass Vaccination Site in Boston, Mass., on March 30, 2021. (Erin Clark/Pool/Getty Images)

Show host Samantha Guthrie then asked, “I understand this is really complicated, but if people are getting vaccinated but they still have to wear masks—they’re outside in the fresh air and the warm weather but the CDC is still saying, ‘Well you should probably wear your masks’—What’s the incentive? Isn’t part of this part of a reward thing where, ‘Do the right thing and you’ll be rewarded?’ Do you balance that at all when you’re making these decisions about the guidance that you give?”

Walensky responded, “We absolutely do and as we look at the guidance to revive—the guidance of what you can do when you’re vaccinated, that will be easier and easier to do as more and more people get vaccinated.”

The CDC’s guidance for wearing masks, updated on April 19, advises, “Masks may not be necessary when you are outside by yourself away from others, or with people who live in your household.” The guidance notes that some areas in the United States may have mask mandates while out in public.

The agency said it generally recommends that people should wear masks “in public settings, at events and gatherings, and anywhere they will be around other people,” as well as on any public transportation.

The CDC in another guidance updated April 2 noted that people who have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19 should “keep taking precautions” in public spaces, such as wearing a mask, staying six feet away from others, and avoiding crowds.

COVID-19, the disease caused by the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus, is known to spread mainly via respiratory droplets that a person exhales. When the respiratory droplets are inhaled by another person, or is somehow deposited into the other person’s mucous membranes that line the inside of the nose and mouth, infection may occur. The droplets can range in size, and small droplets “can also form particles when they dry very quickly in the airstream,” according to the CDC.

If the small droplets and particles manage to remain in the air for minutes to hours, COVID-19 can be spread via airborne transmission, and affect another person who is further than six feet away from the infected person. Only N95 masks protect against smaller particles.

The disease is less commonly spread through touching contaminated surfaces.

A review in the The Journal of Infectious Diseases published in November 2020 found that the likelihood of spreading the virus indoors was 18.7 times higher than outdoors, and that less than 10 percent of reported global CCP virus infections occurred outdoors.

Currently, 26 U.S. states, as well as the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico, require people to wear masks in public. A total of 13 states have lifted their mask mandates.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 04/23/2021 – 14:15

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2QPW9tE Tyler Durden