Turkey Releases Grisly Crime Scene Footage Of Khashoggi Killing On 2nd Anniversary Tyler Durden
Fri, 10/02/2020 – 16:39
Turkey’s Anadolu Agency has released gruesome never-before-seen footage related to journalist Jamal Khashoggi’s brutal murder. It is the second anniversary of his killing at the hands of a hit team believed sent by crown prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul on October 2, 2018.
No less than 15 men were sent to kill one individual who ran afoul of MbS, which included a bone saw used to dismember his body as he entered the consulate to do paperwork related to his impending marriage. Now for the first time police footage has been published of Turkish forensics investigators showing up to document what they found.
The police footage appears to show scattered clothing, as well as fluids on the walls – likely blood – revealed through crime scene UV blacklight.
It also shows a drainage pipe to a sewage area below, possibly used to dispose of the remains; however, Khashoggi’s body was never found.
Recall that the Turks released to the world a slow drip of damning information meant to put immense pressure on the Saudis over the killing, and which proved politically embarrassing in the weeks and months after the Oct. 2018 murder. It appears they are at it again now with this previously classified crime scene footage.
Oh my dear lord. Turkish news agency releases new footage from forensic team’s investigation of the site of Jamal Khashoggi’s murder and subsequent discarding of his remains. https://t.co/oT1OZ8C86m
— İyad el-Baghdadi | إياد البغدادي (@iyad_elbaghdadi) October 2, 2020
On Friday Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s office called for the true killers who ordered and executed the hit to be punished.
“Jamal’s killers have since been exfiltrated. Harboured. Brought to a show trial. Allowed to walk free,” Fahrettin Altun, Erdogan’s communications director, said in a tweet.
“We all know Jamal’s killers. Let’s make them pay: Send the Saudi henchmen to Turkey. Let them appear in a public court with international observers. Cooperate with the criminal investigation in Turkey – the only investigation that was ever intended to shed light on what happened.”
We all know Jamal’s killers. Let’s make them pay:
Send the Saudi henchmen to Turkey.
Let them appear in a public court with international observers.
Cooperate with the criminal investigation in Turkey – the only investigation that was ever intended to shed light on what happened.
Saudi Arabia announced early last month that eight of its citizens have been convicted by a Saudi court for the grizzly slaying, and were given20 years each.A prior 2019 trial had sentenced five to execution, but was later overturned.
Since the killing Riyadh has issued multiple conflicting narratives – all of which appear crafted to shield MbS and the royal family from any ultimate blame.
Indeed the 35-year old crown prince appears to have gotten off scot-free, and is soon due to become king given his father’s continued ill health.
via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3jqVCHN Tyler Durden
While we were all distracted by the Kabuki Theater of the first ‘debate’ between Donald Trump and Joe Biden on Tuesday the bigger event was simply the turning of the calendar from September to October.
What is painful about so much market commentary is that it is focused on price. The Dow went up, huzzah! The dollar fell, huzzah?!
But prices are nothing without time. And most prices are meaningless. The only ones that truly matter are the ones we know definitively for any given period of time — Open, High, Low, Close.
Everything else is noise and errata.
So, the calendar shifting from September to October creates another opportunity to aggregate all the noise of two different time periods, one month and one quarter-year, and assess what people actually thought of the Dow or the dollar or Tesla or a micro-cap furniture company in Saigon.
Given the extreme political landscape, central bankers who have no answers and the obvious push for a remaking of society through the fear-mongering over COVID-19 this quarterly close may be one of the most important in the history of financial markets.
And the fight over important closing prices didn’t disappoint.
It didn’t. $1.1718 was the close. Bearish engulfing one-bar reversal avoided. Whew!
But for how long?
Germany slipped into deflation last quarter. The ECB can’t allow the euro to fall lest it begin putting upward pressure on rates as carry trades unwind. Right now the only thing keeping any of the markets afloat is insane levels of sovereign debt buying by central banks.
They are going through the motions that there are actual markets for these bonds and we are going through the motions that we actually want to own them.
If not for trillions in liquidity sloshing around looking for a home this whole system would collapse overnight. And yet there is no escape from it collapsing at some point anyway.
This is why the WEF’s Great Reset is happening. Those in power want to stay in power and remake the world in a different image. It’s becoming increasingly clear that COVID-19 is an excuse to introduce draconian lock downs to minimize the public’s outrage when they pull the plug on the current system.
Dividing the population into those that submit to this state of affairs and those who don’t was useful data for them. They now know how much push back they will get from the people and how many newly-minted brown shirts and Karens they will have to help them remake the world for the ‘common good.’
And whether anyone is aware of what is going on always shows up in the capital markets. The strong close by U.S. equity markets on Wednesday in the wake of Trump’s debate performance was your first clue.
Trump spoke to people’s elephants loudly and clearly amidst the calls from Chris Wallace and Joe Biden to, “Just shut up.” And those elephants realize that Trump is the only positive force in politics for the future of any vestige of capitalism.
Well, elephants also manage money.
And that’s why the subtle cues that happen in important markets after significant events are more important than 99% of all the price moves we see. It’s why obsessive ticker watching can easily lead you astray unless you are day-trading.
With the news that Donald Trump has COVID-19 and it’s not an asymptomatic post-hoc positive but rather a real diagnosis, the markets reacted badly to the news.
They want to believe there is a stimulus compromise coming from D.C. but as I’ve explained before, Pelosi and the Democrats work for the WEF and want the Great Reset to wipe us all out so they can remake the world and make it safe for their planned technocratic oligarchy.
But, the reality is that traders know this. That’s why the euro is weak today, stocks are closing the week with a whimper but U.S. markets look a helluva lot stronger than European ones.
Case in point. Here are the monthly charts for both the Dow Jones and the German DAX indexes.
The DAX is stuck below the 13,300 level and there is simply no appetite to take it higher. Look at the last four bars of the chart. It’s a strange pattern of higher highs and higher lows, which should be bullish but they are all, at the close, down bars — closing lower than the open.
That kind of non-committal action should be viewed as insider distribution rather than any kind of expression of strength. Powerful people trading the German markets are bailing on German stocks selling into the post-Coronapocalypse reaction rally high.
And they’ve been doing it for months.
Now, here’s the Dow Jones Industrials monthly chart. As Martin Armstrong routinely observes, the Dow is the best proxy for international capital movements into U.S. markets.
The Dow surged into the close on Wednesday (black arrow). It was the second-highest monthly close on record. That is remarkable given the state of the U.S. economy and the political desire to watch it burn.
Now I’m no fan of the larger bullhorn-like chart pattern stretching back four years and that signifies a potential crash in the future.
The differences between the DAX and the Dow Jones tell you that the smart people in Europe are moving their money out ahead of whatever is on the horizon.
But, right now, international equity markets are trading on the hope that Donald Trump wins re-election while the whole of the political class is expending every erg of capital they have to stop him and destroy the capital markets.
In spite of that, he is absolutely the odds-on favorite to win the election. Now whether or not he’ll be allowed to take office is a different story.
And the truth of it is all of what’s happening is their fault. They created this mess with moronic post-Keynesian economics, late-stage corporatist corruption and maleducating two generations into the believing Communism didn’t kill 200+ million people in the 20th century.
This is what undermined the structures built post-WWII as they’ve worked assiduously to weaken all social bonds, sow division and hide behind their minions in governments and the media.
Remember folks it’ll all be better when we embrace the Green New Deal Biden is confused about supporting and over throw everything good and decent in the world because there’s too much freedom in our first-world police states.
That’s the messaging of the Great Reset.
And if you don’t like what is planned well, they’ll be sending a bunch of UBI-sotted, fat-assed and tattooed BLM/Antifa thugs to your house to denounce you as racist while burning it down and taking your stuff while telling themselves their ‘fighting the power.’
What’s coming next will not be pretty regardless of Trump surviving COVID and getting re-elected. Deflation is here because it couldn’t be stopped. Now there is only oceans of money to print to throw into the abyss.
And that why there’s a plan in place and it will unfold because the people driving it have painted themselves into a corner if they want to retain power.
Because, COVID or not, Jobs or not, Fiscal stimulus or not, Biden or not, you gotta look on the bright side of life, right?
Of course today’s market action was Trump Virus fears dueling with Pelosi’s false hopes for fiscal help…(but look at that divergence between Nasdaq and Small Caps at the open)…ugly close today too
Nasdaq underperformed Russell 2000 by the most since May today as we suspect market-makers stomped on the throat of Softbank’s gamma-squeezers…
Source: Bloomberg
And we note that Nasdaq VIX spiked hardest at the open and was the most aggressively bid today…
Source: Bloomberg
Notably, Nasdaq spec shorts collapsed by 40% but the index only managed marginally positive gains on the week (was Softbank trying to ignite a short-squeeze?)…
Source: Bloomberg
“Most Shorted” Stocks are up 6 days in a row (squeezed)
Source: Bloomberg
Some spurious comments from Pelosi on Airlines bailouts sparked a bid in that sector, but it faded somewhat as details were missing…
Source: Bloomberg
FANG Stocks were lower today but up on the week…
Source: Bloomberg
Treasury yields ended the week higher, driven by two rather notable spikes, seemingly sparked by stimulus optimism (and refused to unwind on reality)…
Source: Bloomberg
10Y Yields spiked up to 70bps and stalled again…
Source: Bloomberg
The Dollar erased about half of last week’s gains this week…
Source: Bloomberg
Cryptos were lower this week…
Source: Bloomberg
Real yields fell this week, helping send gold higher…
Source: Bloomberg
WTI was clubbed like a baby seal this week but Silver surged…
WTI ended with a $36 handle on the week, erasing all of the recent rebound gains…
Finally, the 1930s analog remains in place…
Source: Bloomberg
via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3cRSuCo Tyler Durden
Ohio State Prof Pens Hyperbolic Apology For His “Whiteness” After Suggesting College Football Could Unify The Nation Tyler Durden
Fri, 10/02/2020 – 15:40
It’s the state of our country right now, sadly.
Last week, Ohio State professor Matthew Mayhew wrote an article called “Why America Needs College Football.” The article advocated for, you guessed it, a return to college football – arguing it would be good for the nation.
In his initial article, Mayhew wrote:
As college campuses attempt to find a new normal suitable for the COVID-19 realities, college athletics, especially college football, have garnered much attention. Debates continue about whether players should be required to play this fall season.
Although many people have been outspoken about the financial and health ramifications of allowing—or requiring—players to gear up, few, if any, have addressed the essential role that college football may play toward healing a democracy made more fragile by disease, racial unrest and a contested presidential election cycle.
“Essentializing college football might help get us through these uncharacteristically difficult times of great isolation, division and uncertainty. Indeed, college football holds a special bipartisan place in the American heart,” he said.
This week, Mayhew is writing a lengthy and possibly immensely hyperbolic apology for advocating for a sport that “places Black bodies at disproportional risk”.
“I recently led a piece in Inside Higher Ed titled ‘Why America Needs College Football.’ I am sorry for the hurt, sadness, frustration, fatigue, exhaustion and pain this article has caused anyone, but specifically Black students in the higher education community and beyond,” Mayhew wrote in a part two, published in Inside Higher Ed.
He continued, in an apology that was dripping with so much emotion that Reason suggested it could be satirical:
I learned that I could have titled the piece “Why America Needs Black Athletes.” I learned that Black men putting their bodies on the line for my enjoyment is inspired and maintained by my uninformed and disconnected whiteness and, as written in my previous article, positions student athletes as white property. I have learned that I placed the onus of responsibility for democratic healing on Black communities whose very lives are in danger every single day and that this notion of “democratic healing” is especially problematic since the Black community can’t benefit from ideals they can’t access. I have learned that words like “distraction” and “cheer” erase the present painful moments within the nation and especially the Black community.
He continues:
I am just beginning to understand how I have harmed communities of color with my words. I am learning that my words—my uninformed, careless words—often express an ideology wrought in whiteness and privilege. I am learning that my commitment to diversity has been performative, ignoring the pain the Black community and other communities of color have endured in this country. I am learning that I am not as knowledgeable as I thought I was, not as antiracist that thought I was, not as careful as I thought I was. For all of these, I sincerely apologize.
The New York Times, perhaps bewildered by whether or not Mayhew was being serious and confused as to what, exactly to be offended by the most, then came out and publicly criticized the apology, noting that “such a dramatic public apology is obviously weird and bad.”
“The obsequious tone of the groveling should be a red flag that there’s something seriously awry with this mode of discussion,” the Times wrote.
via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3ndygYA Tyler Durden
The Election Is Not The Biggest Q4 Risk: According To One Bank, It’s This Tyler Durden
Fri, 10/02/2020 – 15:20
Two weeks ago, JPMorgan declared that a contested election was the “worst-case scenario” for the market into year-end. Just days later, Ruth Bader Ginsburg died, and suddenly Scotus was set for a major Conservative takeover, although in the process raising the odds of a contested election as Trump would certainly feel empowered to challenge an unfavorable election outcome all the way to SCOTUS.
Of course, since then a lot of things have happened, including the shocking news overnight that Trump now has covid, which has thrown the political and market analysis calculus for a loop. Overnight, Bloomberg’s John Authers had some notable thoughts on what Trump’s covid infection means for markets:
This is almost certainly negative news for the economy, because the chances of a significant relaxation in lockdown provisions in the U.S. have just been sharply reduced. It was much easier to argue for reopening the economy when a large part of the population truly believed that the pandemic was a hoax. That will change, and many individuals’ behavior will probably change even without a change in the official rules.
The chances for a fiscal stimulus deal may well just have increased. Politicians on both sides will want to be seen to be achieving something in these difficult times, and Covid-19 suddenly looks like much more of an immediate problem than it did a few hours ago. A weak unemployment number might also help this.
The chance of some deliberate geopolitical “surprise” to change the subject from Covid-19 may also just have risen. If this news turns out to work against the president, and his polling numbers deteriorate, then the possibility of some escalation in the dispute with China, an issue on which Trump has broad support, becomes that much greater.
For stock markets, we can assume that volatility will rise and that defensive stocks (these days meaning the FANGs) will outperform.
Perhaps the most interesting market to watch is the dollar. In the past, it has acted as a haven during times of alarm, even if the alarm emanates from the U.S. itself. That happened most famously when investors responded to the Standard & Poor’s downgrade of U.S. Treasuries by buying Treasuries and the dollar. Is it still perceived as that kind of a haven?
And yet despite all the unexpected chaos and confusion, according to BofA’s Chief Investment Strategist Michael Hartnett, the biggest threat to the market in Q4 is neither Trump’s covid infection nor the imminent contested election.
But before we reveal what it is… a quick recap of the latest observations from his latest weekly Flow Show report, in which he notes that the key weekly flows included a reversal of last week’s outflow to the tune of $11Nn into equities, $2.1Nn into bonds, small $0.3Bn into gold and the continued outflows from cash money market funds, in the latest week amounting to $19.5Bn.
Among the notable highlights was the 1st outflow from muni bonds in 5 months; a chunky redemption from HY bonds ($3.4bn…2nd consecutive week); no redemptions from IG bonds ($3.9bn inflow); strong inflows to tech stocks resume ($1.2bn) while EM inflows to stocks & bonds trending higher ($12.9bn inflows past 7 weeks).
Hartnett then points out two recent records, on one hand the new all-time high in the Nikkei 500, the new economy index, although not to be confused with the legacy Nikkei 225 which is still 40% from Dec ’89…
… at the same time as we get a new all-time low in the Treasury volatility index – the ill-named MOVE – despite the record $4TN in Treasury issuance in 2020, 25% federal deficit/GDP, 100% federal debt/GDP, all of which to Hartnett is “unambiguous Fed success.”
So going back to Q4 which is now 2 trading days in, Hartnett first lays out his views for what happens next all else equal:
SPX to retest & fail highs in Q4…high cash, fiscal stimulus, vaccine, lower HY spreads, stronger EPS…final capitulation into risk.
“Topping process”…floor in IG spreads, volatility, yields…Wall St credit & equity markets have begun topping process.
Banks & energy rally…HY spreads down, global EPS up, bond yields drift higher; banks & energy to be boosted by M&A given distressed valuations
And while BofA does not really stand out in its list of potentially bullish Q4 catalyst, which it views as primarily two, namely Lower HY spreads(look for the recent widening of HY spreads where CDX widened 60bps to 560bps following collapse from 1100bps March spread highs – to reverse in Oct), and Higher global EPS, with China new orders & Korean exports at the highest level since 2018, and US orders/inventory ratio at 10-year high…
… it was BofA’s two bear catalyst for Q4 that we found most interesting.
The first – as expected – was the upcoming election, with Hartnett noting that the odds of a Dem sweep are increasing, and social demand for more-and-more government intervention in labor market, guarantees US & global fiscal stimulus here to stay. But as he adds, the now assured contested election that delayed phase IV US fiscal stimulus will pressure state & local government finances (watch MUB) and commercial real estate (watch CMBS); any imminent and aggressive Fed liquidity injections on contested election would favor tech over cyclicals.
But it was the second key Q4 bear catalyst that was most remarkable, i.e., the fact that after $8.3 trillion in monetary injection, 183 rate cuts YTD, the pace of central bank injections via QE fading ($3.8tn in Q2, $2.4tn in Q3, $1.1tn in Q4).
And, in a parallel report, BofA’s Barnaby Martin rhetorically asks “why are markets lacking their usual mojo lately?” and answers:
Because it’s been hard for policy makers to keep up with the sheer quantum of support unleashed earlier in the crisis. Between March and June this year, there were 109 (net) rate cuts by central banks…the last 3m have seen just 22. March ’20 saw more than 1200 policy measures announced globally… but August ’20 saw just 273. And while G6 central bank balance sheet growth surged $4.2tr in Q2, the growth rate is forecast to be a “meager” $1.25tr this quarter.
In short, the fact that central banks are slowing down their interventions dramatically means that the only thing that could spark a fresh burst higher in risk assets is, paradoxically, another major crisis which forces the Fed to intervene even more aggressively.
Luckily, if there is one thing the world does not have a shortage of right now, it is potential crisis powder kegs and it’s only a matter of time before one or more explode.
via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3jC9Khm Tyler Durden
Nikola Tries To Censor Its Critics On YouTube Using Copyright Complaints Tyler Durden
Fri, 10/02/2020 – 15:00
Embattled EV maker Nikola appears to be in the midst of a damage control campaign that includes trying to claw back some of its online image and credibility that it once had. As part and parcel with this strategy, the company is reportedly taking a stance against its YouTube critics, “forcing the removal of several videos on YouTube over alleged copyright infringement issues,” according to EV blog Teslarati.
The report, originally produced by Financial Times, asserts that numerous channels on YouTube that are known for discussing the market or electric vehicles have all received takedown notices related to content about Nikola. Several videos have been removed from the platform, according to the same report.
“Another large corporation uses YouTube’s copyright system to silence criticism,” one blog wrote.
One vlogger, Sam Alexander, says he received notifications on Wednesday that “at least four of his videos” were reported for copyright infringement. The four videos in question all featured clips of Nikola’s “Nikola One In Motion” video, which was revealed by short seller Hindenburg Research – and confirmed by the company – to be video of a semi truck rolling down a hill without the power of a working powertrain, despite the video description listing the Nikola One as having “1,000 HP”.
Another content creator, Tom Nash (pictured above courtesy of ReclaimTheNet.org), said he was “required to take down three critical Nikola videos” including one that featured the same video of the Nikola One rolling down the hill. Nash has 41,000 subscribers on his channel.
Nash commented about the copyright strikes to the Financial Times: “It’s what you would call a death sentence for a creator. This is my livelihood. I have three kids. I quit my job to do this.” But as of now, the strikes are having the opposite effect that they sought out, as the company’s critics seem emboldened to speak out further due to the censorship.
Nikola targeting content creators like @SamMcbr46422783, who don’t speak favorably of the company is not the right approach. This will stoke even more negative sentiment toward Nikola and embolden more to speak up. https://t.co/LMlM7bL6Gi
Nikola seemed to try and blame the issue on YouTube, stating that “YouTube identifies copyright violations and shares this data with the company” and that, based on this data, the company submitted takedown notices against videos that use their content without permission.
Nikola said: “YouTube regularly identifies copyright violations of Nikola content and shares the lists of videos with us. Based on YouTube’s information, our initial action was to submit takedown requests to remove the content that was used without our permission. Going forward, we will evaluate these flagged videos on a case-by-case basis.”
But YouTube disputed this explanation to the FT, saying that the platform doesn’t proactively remove videos and that the company would have to fill out a copyright removal request: “Nikola has access to our copyright match tool, which does not automatically remove any videos. Users must fill out a copyright removal request form, and when doing so we remind them to consider exceptions to copyright law. Anyone who believes their reuse of a video or segment is protected by fair use can file a counter-notice.”
For reference, the video that Nikola posted to its official YouTube account in 2018 looked like this:
via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/30tTG9Z Tyler Durden
Trump To Hold Virtual Campaign Rally Friday Despite COVID-19 Diagnosis Tyler Durden
Fri, 10/02/2020 – 14:39
After missing both of the two presidential events he had scheduled for Friday (VP Mike Pence filled in on both occasions), President Trump will reportedly hold a virtual campaign rally on Friday night to show America that he’s still “in charge” despite embarking on a 14-day quarantine with First Lady Melania Trump.
The news was first reported by FOX35 Orlando, which added that the decision was made after Trump’s planned rally in Sanford was cancelled a couple of hours ago by Trump’s campaign manager, Bill Stepien. Stepien has suspended all events involving Trump and his family members.
Members of the public can sign up to “attend virtually” here.
Along with Trump, Melania Trump, and Hope Hicks, GOP Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel, the president of Notre Dame University, one junior staffer, and one reporter have also tested positive.
The NYT first reported that Trump and his team were kicking around ideas, including holding a national address from the White House, to show the public that Trump is still in good shape, and that he’s still leading the US.
Trump and Melania both announced their plans to quarantine via Twitter.
As too many Americans have done this year, @potus & I are quarantining at home after testing positive for COVID-19. We are feeling good & I have postponed all upcoming engagements. Please be sure you are staying safe & we will all get through this together.
Trump also tweeted a ‘get well’ wish to aide Hope Hicks, who was reported to have tested positive Thursday night.
Hope Hicks, who has been working so hard without even taking a small break, has just tested positive for Covid 19. Terrible! The First Lady and I are waiting for our test results. In the meantime, we will begin our quarantine process!
Trump also said he “spent a lot of time with Hope” during an interview with Sean Hannity Thursday evening, where he implied that soldiers’ fondness for the former model-turned-politico may have led to her being exposed.
“I spent a lot of time with Hope and so does the first lady and she’s tremendous,” he said. “I was a little surprised but she’s a very warm person and she has a hard time when soldiers and law enforcement comes up to her. You know she wants to treat them great, not say”
If it goes ahead, Friday night’s event could be a precursor to a potentially “virtual” debate, as the next debate, set to be held in Miami on Oct. 15, likely won’t be able to go ahead in person due to Trump’s infection status.
via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/30v9M3n Tyler Durden
Nuclear Doomsday Planes Take Flight As Trump Contracts COVID Tyler Durden
Fri, 10/02/2020 – 14:24
President Trump and First Lady Melania Trump tested positive for COVID-19 on Friday morning. Around the time the news broke, planespotters on social media reported two Boeing E-6B Mercury planes flying on either side of the US mainland’s coasts.
The Pentagon uses the E-6B as airborne nuclear mission-control, commanding a fleet of the Navy’s Ohio class nuclear-powered submarines, armed with nuclear ballistic missiles, in US waters and or around the world.
“There was speculation the airborne command posts were deployed as a warning to any of America’s enemies after news broke of Trump’s positive test for the novel coronavirus,” Fox News said.
Fox News continued, “while military planes generally turn off their transponders in order to avoid being tracked, the two E-6Bs in the air early Friday morning had left theirs on, with the assumption being that their crews want to be seen.”
Tim Hogan, an American open-source intelligence analyst, tweeted:
There’s an E-6B Mercury off the east coast near DC. I looked because I would expect them to pop up if he tests positive. It’s a message to the small group of adversaries with SLBMs and ICBMs.
Hogan said:
Here’s another E6-B that just popped up visible on MLAT on the west coast. IMO Stratcom wants them to be seen.
Hogan said the E6-Bs have the “ability to order the killing of everyone on earth if someone attacks the US with nukes in a first strike. It can talk to our missile subs underwater even if DC is gone.”
The Navy has 16 of these planes, and it’s not uncommon for two to be flying at the same. However, the timing of Friday’s flights is noteworthy.
And maybe NBC’s Ben Collins is right …
This is a remarkable way to get a scoop, about a half-hour before the announcement. https://t.co/YKcYSltLVS
Former Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman, one of the main impeachment witnesses against President Donald Trump, will serve as a visiting fellow at the University of Pennsylvania’s Perry World House.
Perry World House exists “to bring the academic knowledge of the University of Pennsylvania to bear on some of the world’s most pressing global policy challenges.” Perry World House fellows interact with the Penn community via lectures, office hours, workshops, and other events.
Vindman rose from relative obscurity after he testified in the House about Trump’s phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, which he called “improper.” After Trump was acquitted, he relieved Vindman of his post in the National Security Council.
In July, Vindman retired from military service after an alleged “campaign of bullying, intimidation, and retaliation by President Trump and his allies.”
According to The Federalist‘s Mollie Hemmingwayand the Washington Examiner’s Byron York’s book, Obsession: Inside the Washington Establishment’s Never-Ending War on Trump, which identifies Vindman as the driving force behind the impeachment proceedings, Vindman was the only person on the National Security Council to listen in on the Ukraine call and express concern about it.
During the impeachment trials, Vindman admitted to leaking information about the Ukraine phone call to two people, one of whom he said worked at the State Department and the other of whom he said worked within the U.S. intelligence community. Vindman offered the name of the first individual but did not disclose the name of the second, which Republicans during the impeachment hearing suspected was the whistleblower.
In an interview with The Atlantic Editor-In-Chief Jeffrey Goldberg, Vindman expressed criticism of Trump, calling him Vladimir Putin’s “useful idiot.”
Professors at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School – President Trump’s alma mater – recently made headlines for trying to launch an investigation into Trump’s admission to the university. The professors cited a claim in Too Much and Never Enough – a recent book written by Trump’s niece, Mary Trump – that President Trump paid someone to take the SAT on his behalf.
The university declined the professors’ request to investigate, stating that “this situation occurred too far in the past to make a useful or probative factual inquiry possible,” as Campus Reform previously reported.
via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/33nDzMZ Tyler Durden
JPM’s Kolanovic Lays Out A Scenario In Which Trump’s Illness “Boosts His Election Chances” Tyler Durden
Fri, 10/02/2020 – 13:40
JPMorgan’s head quant Marko Kolanovic was quick to cut to the chase today and opine on what truly matters in the aftermath of Trump’s covid diagnosis: the bank’s S&P price target, which as the Croat wrote in an “Update on overnight developments” remains unchanged, to wit:
In light of recent developments, the positive COVID-19 test for the US President and First Lady, we are not changing our price targets or outlook across asset classes. Our equity outlook remains positive with a (scenario-weighted) S&P 500 year-end price target of 3600.
Additionally, the JPM quant writes that the bank’s outlook for styles remains that “value will outperform momentum and growth under any election outcome” while on sectors his view “is that cyclicals will outperform also under any election outcome.”
But enough about markets, what about Kolanovic’s take on politics, which sadly these days is what every market strategist has become an expert in? According to the quant, “the current development across various scenarios for the President’s illness slightly increases Biden’s chance of winning, which could marginally reduce post-election risks and market uncertainty.”
But what is curious is a scenario from Kolanovic which we are confident he will get a lot of heat for, namely one “in which a combination of voter sympathy, turnout and an asymptomatic or mild virus outcome boosts Trump’s election chances (e.g. vindicating his strategy of opening by example).”
Then quickly going back to markets, Kolanovic lays out another market-friendly outcome in which “a significant health deterioration acts to lower tensions and animosity on both sides of the aisle, paving the way for national reconciliation and likely increasing Republicans’ odds in Congress.”
Underscoring his bullish view, Kolanovic repeats that “positioning remains low” which however Morgan Stanley completely disagrees with, finding last week that adjusted hedge fund net leverage is at all time highs as we noted recently:
Panicky HF flow is also limited as the “crowded” HF trades, where gross and net leverage is high, are working. Crowding is concentrated in high quality Cyclicals and Defensives but the common themes are secular growth winners with low EPS volatility – performance has been very strong in these areas (left chart below).
That said, one final optimistic take per Kolanovic is that “the probability of an early phase 4 stimulus is likely increasing” as such he expects 3Q earnings delivery and outlook “to remain constructive as earnings again come in ahead of expectations and balance sheet trends show further improvement.”
Judging by the market’s impressive reversal higher, especially after House Democrats hinted of an airline bailout possibility, traders seems to agree with Marko.
via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2Gb1Ltx Tyler Durden
