How Does A Harvard Professor Think It’s “Authoritarian” To Allow Parents To Teach Their Kids?

How Does A Harvard Professor Think It’s “Authoritarian” To Allow Parents To Teach Their Kids?

Authored by Katherine Tempf via NationalReview.com,

Harvard University law professor has called for a “presumptive ban” on homeschooling — claiming that the freedom to do so under our current laws is “authoritarian.”

“The issue is, do we think that parents should have 24/7, essentially authoritarian control over their children from ages zero to 18? I think that’s dangerous,” Elizabeth Bartholet said in an interview with Harvard Magazine.

“I think it’s always dangerous to put powerful people in charge of the powerless, and to give the powerful ones total authority.”

Bartholet stated that there is “an essentially unregulated regime in the area of homeschooling,” with “very few requirements that parents do anything.”

“[P]eople can homeschool who’ve never gone to school themselves, who don’t read or write themselves,” she said.

Bartholet also stated that homeschooling can make it easier for parents to get away with abusing their children and/or indoctrinating them with white supremacy and misogyny:

[I]t’s also important that children grow up exposed to community values, social values, democratic values, ideas about nondiscrimination and tolerance of other people’s viewpoints.

I do not, of course, want to minimize the absolute horror of child abuse. It’s disgusting; it’s heartbreaking; and anyone who isn’t a sociopath agrees that it’s necessary to protect our children.

Unfortunately, however, it’s also true that abuse is hardly something that can occur only in a child’s home. In fact, as Harvard grad and homeschooler Kerry McDonald pointed out in a letter to Harvard Magazine in response to its article, “many parents choose to homeschool their children to remove them from abuse at school, whether it’s widespread bullying by peers or, tragically, rampant abuse by teachers and school administrators themselves.”

“Banning homeschooling, or adding burdensome regulations on homeschooling families, who in many instances are fleeing a system of education that they find harmful to their children, are unnecessary attacks on law-abiding families,” McDonald continues.

What’s more, another of Bartholet’s suggestions — that the freedom to homeschool equals masses of children being painfully undereducated by illiterate parents — is as offensive as it is inaccurate. In fact, many, many children don’t simply receive an adequate education through homeschooling but an exemplary one that sets them up for greater success than any traditional school could have. As McDonald pointed out in her letter, although “there may always be outliers and more research is needed, most peer-reviewed studies on homeschooling outcomes find that homeschoolers generally outperform their schooled peers academically, and have positive life experiences.”

In any case, and even apart from all of this, Bartholet’s characterization of the freedom to homeschool as “authoritarian” is nothing short of absurd. A government allowing its citizens the freedom to educate their own children is not only not authoritarian, it is also the exact opposite of authoritarian. That’s a fact, and you don’t even need to know the first thing about homeschooling to understand that — really, you just need to know what the word means.

In terms of knowing about homeschooling, though, I can also say that I personally do know more than the average person.

I was homeschooled for fourth and fifth grade, and can confidently say that the two years I spent with my father as my teacher were responsible for countless positive outcomes in my life — ones that I wouldn’t have had otherwise. For example: Before I was homeschooled, I was struggling to learn math the way that the public school had been teaching it, and getting the chance to learn some fundamentals in a way that worked for my own particular brain was instrumental in making the subject much easier for me in the future.

But that wasn’t all. See, unlike math, I loved reading and writing. Those subjects had always come easily to me, and I enjoyed them. Homeschooling provided an advantage for me in this area, too. It allowed me to learn advanced aspects of grammar. I had the liberty to read works of literature that I wouldn’t have studied in a traditional school because they would have been “above” the designated level for my classroom. I wrote poetry and short stories about subjects of my own choosing. When I returned to public school in the sixth grade, the English lessons were things that I’d already learned — but fortunately, having had the opportunity to develop a love of writing and curiosity about books is something that kept me reading and writing what I wanted in my own time. Hell, I’m still doing it now.

Finally, it’s also patently ignorant how Bartholet aims to use the fact that children must be exposed to varying viewpoints and people while they’re growing up as some kind of argument against homeschooling. McDonald states that “research on homeschoolers finds that they are tightly connected with their larger community and may have more community involvement and participation in extracurricular and volunteer activities than schooled children due to their more flexible schedules and interaction with a wide assortment of community members,” and I’m not surprised. In fact, this was my experience exactly.

I mean, does Bartholet think not attending a traditional school somehow means that I never left the house at all? Because honestly, that couldn’t have been less true. I was quite active in my community, even participating in activities such as Girl Scouts with my friends from public school. I didn’t miss out on any of that.

In fact, I was actually exposed to far more experiences and perspectives specifically because I was homeschooled. I was able to act in community theater plays at multiple venues, interacting with all kinds of interesting people from various walks of life, without having to worry that a late-night dress rehearsal would make me too exhausted to learn in the morning because my schedule revolved around me. For the same reason, my family was able to take a random trip to New York City to see my father’s friend’s play — and within hours of arrival, I decided I was definitely going to move here when I grew up and work either on a stage, in front of a camera, or both. I had the luxury of learning from truly transformative, unique experiences, ones that I certainly wouldn’t have had if I’d been forced to spend that time square dancing in a gymnasium.

Harvard Magazine points out that “rapidly increasing” numbers of Americans are choosing to homeschool their children. (By “choosing,” by the way, I mean that this was true before coronavirus essentially forced this lifestyle on everyone.) Bartholet apparently sees this as some kind of tragedy that will lead to a future generation full of sexist Nazis who don’t know how to read, but this simply isn’t fair. No, homeschooling isn’t perfect for everyone, but it can and has worked uniquely well for many people, myself included. We shouldn’t be taking that option away, and certainly not in the name of stopping authoritarianism.

It isn’t hard to see how completely a**-backwards that “logic” is — after all, even a former homeschooler like me was able to figure it out.


Tyler Durden

Sun, 04/26/2020 – 13:25

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/35eti5m Tyler Durden

The Three Pillars

The Three Pillars

Authored by Sven Henrich via NorthmanTrader.com,

New bull market? No. Unproven. New lows to come or a retest? No. Unproven.

Markets are engaged in a key battle between the worst evolving fundamental picture in our lifetimes on the one hand, and the largest set of liquidity injections in history. A looming $3.7 trillion deficit, a Fed balance sheets on a path to $10 trillion, zero rates as far as the eye can see and even calls for negative rates in the US with no plan or vision to ever extract ourselves from this future growth sapping venture. Record deficits, record debt, record unemployment are not a recipe for organic growth. Far from it. But let’s chase record liquidity injections.

The footprints of these liquidity injections can be found in the distortions in asset prices versus the fundamentals.

And this is what this market right now is all about, the three pillars: Fundamentals, liquidity and technicals.

Last week we saw a correction off of the key monthly 2oMA pivot (Just One Chart), this rejection produced a 170 handle correction on $ES, then more liquidity announcements on the side of the Fed on Thursday evening, and a new stimulus package by Congress to the tune of nearly half a trillion dollars and the correction was again saved, but has so far produced lower highs.

This is what it takes. Ever more intervention. But hopes for a structural quick recovery are misplaced. Recovery yes, but back to where we were? Hardly.

For a run down on the macro picture I encourage you to watch these two interviews belie if you haven’t seen them:

Firstly, my own take on things on the macro view via ABC in Australia this week:

And second, this take from Mohammed El-Erian on the cognitive failure that is taking place in markets right now:

The liquidity injections can’t fix the economy, all they can do it goose asset prices above their fundamental worth.

Next week will be an important week in markets: A key new Fed meeting next week, what will they think of now? And of course we have month end with motivation to perhaps mark up stocks right in front of Sell in May? In addition, the big 5 mega cap tech stocks that have carried this entire market on the way up last year (and are again doing so now) will report earnings and speak to outlooks.

Be clear without these 5 stocks the entire index picture would look far worse than it now appears:

Be the massive divergence in equal weight vis-à-vis $SPX:

Or be it relative index performance (since the January 2018 highs):

The largest liquidity injections in history and 5 stocks only are masking the extent of the damage inflicted on markets. The bull market remains unproven. Bulls need to prove their case by getting above key resistance levels and then defend these areas as support. Without capturing these levels this rally here looks to follow the historic script of a bear market counter rally.

For the levels and this week’s macro and technical assessment please see the video below:

Please be sure to watch it in HD for clarity. To get notified of future videos feel free to subscribe to our YouTube Channel.

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For the latest public analysis please visit NorthmanTrader. To subscribe to our market products please visit Services.

 


Tyler Durden

Sun, 04/26/2020 – 12:35

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3cNALL5 Tyler Durden

Lindsey Graham Explains Why He’ll Be “Shocked” If North Korea’s Kim Isn’t Dead

Lindsey Graham Explains Why He’ll Be “Shocked” If North Korea’s Kim Isn’t Dead

The well-known hawkish Senator Lindsey Graham took to Fox over the weekend to explain he’ll be shocked if ongoing rumors and speculation about the death of North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un don’t turn out to be true.

Graham told Fox host Jeanine Pirro that international reports are so rampant at this point that Pyongyang would otherwise be forced to offer proof that he’s alive. Instead there’s been deafening silence. 

“It’s a closed society. I haven’t heard anything directly, but I’ll be shocked if he’s not dead or in some incapacitated state because you don’t let rumors like this go forever or go unanswered in a closed society which is really a cult, not a country, called north Korea,” the senator said.

Via Daily Express

He concluded: “So I pretty well believe he is dead or incapacitated”.

He added that the people of North Korea “will get some relief” if Kim is indeed dead, and that it remains in such a case that President Trump “is willing to do business with North Korea in a win-win fashion”.

“So if this guy is dead, I hope the guy who takes over will work with President Trump to make North Korea a better place for everybody,” the Republican Senator and Trump ally stated.

Graham, who chairs the Senate Judiciary Committee and sits on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, made the comments late Saturday just two days following Trump saying in a Thursday press briefing he believed the early reports saying Kim died following a botched heart surgery were “incorrect”.

The rumor mill over the fate of Kim Jong Un has gone into overdrive, as the North Korean leader hasn’t been seen since April 11 – over two weeks ago.

And as the New York Times notes in a Sunday morning report, North Korea’s recent silence on Kim is indeed highly unusual, considering that rumors are flying that their leader is either dead or in a vegetative state, which has reportedly begun to send the local population in Pyongyang into a panic as international reports from outside the country seep back in.


Tyler Durden

Sun, 04/26/2020 – 12:10

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/35bjI2X Tyler Durden

Chinese Company Suspected Of Spying On US Citizens Donates Police Drones To 22 States

Chinese Company Suspected Of Spying On US Citizens Donates Police Drones To 22 States

Authored by Zachary Evans via NationalReview.com,

Chinese company Da Jiang Innovations, the world’s largest maker of drones, has donated drones to 43 law enforcement agencies operating in 22 U.S. states to enforce social distancing rules.

Police in Elizabeth, N.J., for example, are using the drones to surveil residents in places where patrol cars can’t easily reach, such as spaces between buildings and back yards.

“If these drones save one life, it is clearly worth the activity and the information that the drones are sending,” Elizabeth mayor Chris Bollwage told MSNBC.

In 2017, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security warned in a memo that DJI was “selectively targeting government and privately owned entities within these sectors to expand its ability to collect and exploit sensitive U.S. data.”

The Interior Department in 2019 grounded its entire fleet of DJI-manufactured drones, which had been used to surveil U.S. land, due to concerns that China was using the drones to gather data on critical U.S. infrastructure.

DJI has asserted that concerns about its drones  are groundless.

“There are people who don’t like China but they are trying to score ideological points by trying to dicourage the use of equipment and important tools that save lives,” DJI spokesman Alex Lisberg told Fox News in response to allegations of spying.

Chinese authorities have deployed drones to police citizens breaking lockdown rules during the coronavirus pandemic. Footage gathered from police UAV’s shows the drones, operated by police on the ground, warning residents by loudspeaker to return to their homes. Residents of China have faced sweeping lockdowns in response to the coronavirus, with reports of authorities locking some citizens in their homes for quarantine.


Tyler Durden

Sun, 04/26/2020 – 11:44

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2x6WEFY Tyler Durden

Twitter Suspends Account Of Biotech Company Testing UV Light To Treat Coronavirus

Twitter Suspends Account Of Biotech Company Testing UV Light To Treat Coronavirus

Twitter has suspended the account of a Colorado biotech company which is working with Cedars-Sinai to test and develop a potential coronavirus treatment using UV light inserted into the lungs – the same week as Homeland Security’s head of Science and Technology, Bill Bryan, suggested that UV light could have a significant affect on viruses such as COVID-19.

The suspension of Aytu BioScience’s account comes shortly after YouTube removed a video demonstrating the technology (which can be seen below on Vimeo).

Here’s a screenshot of Aytu CEO Josh Disbrow sharing the now-removed YouTube video, while tagging the now-banned Twitter account.

Aytu’s “Healight” is a medical device which administers intermittent ultraviolet (UV-A) light inside a patient’s trachea, which has the “potential to positively impact outcomes for critically ill patients infected with coronavirus and severe respiratory infections,” according to a corporate press release.

The company is working with the Medically Associated Science and Technology (MAST) team at Cedars-Sinai medical center, and are seeking expedited FDA approval for near-term use of the technology.

Twitter and YouTube’s ban of Aytu couldn’t have anything to do with this, could it?


Tyler Durden

Sun, 04/26/2020 – 11:25

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3cM688Q Tyler Durden

Maryland Joins Push To End Lockdowns As China Claims Coronavirus Has Been Eradicated From Wuhan: Live Updates

Maryland Joins Push To End Lockdowns As China Claims Coronavirus Has Been Eradicated From Wuhan: Live Updates

As the number of confirmed coronavirus cases around the world moves closer to the 3 million mark, more countries and US states are beginning the process of reopening their economies, while China and Singapore continue to struggle with rising numbers of new cases, forcing them to tighten restrictions all over again.

After reporting another single-day increase of nearly 1,000 new cases (almost all of them migrant workers, a persistent theme), Reuters reported that Singapore was taking a page out of China’s play book and rapidly building bed space for coronavirus patients in cavernous exhibition halls and other temporary facilities.

In some parts of China, authorities are closing gyms and swimming pools as the number of new cases continues to rebound. Meanwhile, in Wuhan, Chinese health officials on Sunday claimed that the city no longer has any coronavirus patients in hospitals, according to the Washington Post.

Mi Feng, a spokesman for the National Health Commission, said the achievement was a result of the “hard work from Wuhan and health officials from around the country,” according to Chinese state media. China recorded only 11 more cases of the virus on Sunday and has had no new deaths for almost a week.

While in the US, millions are looking ahead with a mix of trepidation and anticipation as several states plan to dramatically reopen their economies during the coming week. Last night, we reported that the global coronavirus death toll surpassed 200k, with roughly a quarter of deaths reported in the US alone.

Source: FT

As the Washington Post examined each state’s plans for reopening on Sunday. The reporters pointed out that so far, the process of reopening has “cleaved largely along party lines, with some Republican governors moving to reopen key sectors and Democrats moving more slowly.” In states such as New York, where the virus has exacted its heaviest toll, there are no plans for letting up. In nearby Connecticut, businesses likely won’t reopen until June.

However, on Sunday morning, Maryland Gov Larry Hogan – a moderate Republican governing a typically blue state – became the first non-southern, non-western governor to declare his intentions to reopen despite a record jump in deaths in his state reported over the weekend. “I want to get our economy back opened just as soon as we can,” Hogan told ABC News on Sunday. He’s shooting to start the process in early May, meaning some ‘non-essential’ businesses might start reopening as soon as this week.

Since the states have largely taken the lead in fighting the virus, we’re surprised that the media hasn’t focused on the fact that high-tax states with more resources are largely planning to stay closed for longer, while states that collect less in tax revenues per capita are generally looking to reopen more quickly.

In Tennessee, restaurants will start reopening on Monday. In Missouri, the state is planning on allowing”almost every business” to reopen starting a week from Monday. And in Idaho, churches and other places of worship could be unlocking their doors by next weekend.

Even the states that are plotting their reopenings understand that the process must be controlled, or else risk reversing “all that we’ve accomplished,” as Iowa Gov. Brad Little warned. Still, many epidemiologists are less-than-thrilled about the reopening plans, since most states don’t have nearly enough testing capacity to adequately monitor their progress.

“We don’t have the resources in place to do the level of testing and contact tracing we need to make sure we’re monitoring this effectively,” said Jeffrey Shaman, an epidemiologist at Columbia University. “We’re flying blind.” No matter how you slice it, states that are reopening first are willingly becoming test subjects in a high-stakes experiment. Nobody can say for sure how this will play out.

Georgia isn’t the only state that has opened up: Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt announced on Wednesday that salons, barbers and pet groomers would be allowed to reopen as of Friday. Though, to be sure, that’s only a handful of businesses in the grand scheme of things

Florida’s decision to reopen some beaches has been widely criticized by the MSM, but as WaPo admits in its latest story about the reopening, in many areas, beaches are the largest swaths of public land and basically analogous to public parks. Even states like New York and Connecticut haven’t closed their parks.

Whatever happens with the reopenings, as more Americans realize that many of the stores in their once-vibrant downtown areas are being emptied out of all inventory and quietly closing their doors, it’s becoming apparent that the US likely won’t see the true extent of these closures for weeks; even in Georgia, many small businesses that are technically allowed to reopen still haven’t for myriad reasons.

Outside the US, the biggest news on Sunday was Boris Johnson’s announcement that he will be returning to No. 10 on Monday and retake the reins as the debate about reopening rages in Britain. More conservative lawmakers are pushing to at least release a plan for reopening to ease the anxieties of the people.

Another reason for the reopening push: many small businesses are on the verge of collapse. More than half the owner-managed businesses in the UK will run out of cash within 12 weeks, according to a survey by accountancy network Association of Practising Accountants (APA), which has a network of tens of thousands of clients. Roughly 900 participated in the survey.

Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab, who has been running the country in BoJo’s stead, said the PM’s return would be “a boost for the country” as polls have shown the overwhelming majority of Britons want the PM in the driver’s seat.

In Spain, young children were allowed outside their homes on Sunday for the first time since the lockdown began as the Spanish government eases some restrictions while extending the lockdown to May 9.

Spain on Sunday reported its lowest daily coronavirus death toll in more than a month. And it wasn’t alone: Iran on Sunday reported its lowest number of deaths in 47 days as the government presses on with its rapid reopening to stave off a complete economic collapse.

Finally, in a tweet Saturday evening, President Trump announced the cancellation of future White House briefings.

He also tweeted a message for the nation’s governors.


Tyler Durden

Sun, 04/26/2020 – 11:25

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2Y8snlw Tyler Durden

Most Americans Will Be Scared To Return To Malls When Stores Finally Reopen

Most Americans Will Be Scared To Return To Malls When Stores Finally Reopen

Over the weekend, we wrote why if one uses Wuhan as a template for what “reopening” could look like, anyone still expecting a V-shaped recovery, or even U-shaped one, could be in for a major shock: the reason – it will take months if not years for consumer fears to subside and for behavior to return to normal.

This could prove catastrophic for America’s already teetering shopping malls and “bricks and mortar” retailers. According to a new study by retail analytics company First Insights conducted on April 20, only one-third of American adults surveyed said that they will feel safe shopping in a mall after stores reopen. More respondents said they’ll feel safe shopping in grocery, drug and big-box stores like Target and Walmart, outlets which mostly remained open during the outbreak to sell essential goods.

In an act of painful irony, before the Coronavirus pandemic hit, malls – which were already suffering from historic traffic losses, went all in in their attempts to lure shoppers people back and added such “social” elements as amusement parks, movie theaters and upgraded food courts – just the types of crowded places that have became off-limits when social distancing began.

As retailers reopen after mandatory stay-at-home periods, Greg Petro, chief executive officer of First Insight, said in a statement that “malls in particular need to be thinking of ways to inspire a sense of safety for consumers, and it will need to go beyond offering gloves and masks at the door.”

And, as Bloomberg notes, China may show the way again:

As the nation reopened businesses following its quarantines, it’s become standard to check the temperatures of patrons entering shopping destinations. Some stores in China are being cleaned multiple times during the day. And fitting rooms and products that have been tried on are being disinfected after each use — no more just picking up a sweater and throwing it back on the rack if it’s not the right fit.

Shopper demographics may also be affected after the reopening, as more men than women said they’ll feel safe in each type of retail outlet after Covid-19, the study found. Petro said that since it’s likely that retailers will see more men in their stores than women, they should consider adjusting inventory accordingly.

And when those shoppers do arrive they’ll most likely be coming with their own equipment. Eighty percent of consumers prefer using their own face masks rather than ones provided in the store, the survey found.


Tyler Durden

Sun, 04/26/2020 – 10:55

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2zruQNm Tyler Durden

Market Stalls, Is The “Bear Market” Rally Over?

Market Stalls, Is The “Bear Market” Rally Over?

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Market rally stalls at resistance, is the “bear market rally over?”

That’s the question we have been discussing over the last few weeks. So far, most of it has played out exactly as expected by turning previous “selling panic” into a “buying rush,” and convincing a vast majority of investors the “bull market is back.” 

I get it. The market has rallied 27% from its lows after falling by 35%. From sheer “panic” to unadulterated “exuberance” in four weeks. However, investors are still down 12% for the year.

The Revenant

As we discussed in “The Revenant,” this is what you should have expected:

“Bob Farrell, a legendary investor, is famous for his 10-Investment Rules to follow. Rule #8 states:

Bear markets have three stages – sharp down, reflexive rebound and a drawn-out fundamental downtrend

  1. Bear markets often START with a sharp and swift decline.

  2. After this decline, there is an oversold bounce that retraces a portion of that decline.

  3. The longer-term decline then continues, at a slower and more grinding pace, as the fundamentals deteriorate.

Dow Theory also suggests that bear markets consist of three down legs with reflexive rebounds in between.”

As would be expected, the “Phase 1” sell-off was brutal and set up the “reflexive bounce.” 

“For many individuals, they will ‘feel like’ they are ‘safe.’ Such is how ‘bear market rallies’ lure investors back in just before they are mauled again in ‘Phase 3.’” – March 14th.

Note the date, which was well before the March 23rd lows.

A month later, and I am overwhelmed with emails telling me the “bull market is back.”

Maybe, it is.

But I tend to agree with Victor Adair of Polar Trading on this point:

“Massive monetary and fiscal stimulus in March and April will ‘counter’ the deflationary surge to some extent, but it’s not a one-for-one ‘offset.’ The deflationary impulse will continue and will be pervasive and enduring. While equity speculators have been BTD lately, the bond market, commodities, and FX have been skeptical.
 
I agree with folks who say that the Fed kept monetary policy way too easy for way too long. It encouraged way too much leverage everywhere. Now leverage is being punished, and the Fed is riding to the rescue. I guess that leverage keeps getting punished, and reduced, despite the Fed’s best efforts.
 
We’ve seen a bear market rally in the major stock indices since the March 23rd lows. However, the economic damage is underestimated at this point, and as it becomes more evident we will see a test of the lows.”

Short-Term Overbought

Regardless, in the short-term, the markets remain incredibly overbought and extended after the run from the lows. As noted last week:

“On a very short-term basis, the previous ‘deep oversold’ condition that provided the ‘fuel’ for the rally has been reversed. Also, all primary ‘overbought/sold’ indicators are now fully extended into overbought territory.”

The rally has run into key downtrend resistance, and remains close to triggering a short-term “sell signal” from overbought levels.

If the markets can rally more on Monday and break above the downtrend, the 61.8% retracement level becomes a viable target. Above that resides the 200-day moving average. Both levels are going to provide formidable resistance to a move higher.

Such is particularly the case considering the avalanche of exceedingly negative data coming over the next several weeks from earnings to economics.

Speaking Of Earnings

On Tuesday, I did a deep dive into S&P earnings:

“More importantly, the chart below shows the comparison of the original and latest estimates for April. In our first analysis, earnings were to decline from Q4-2019 levels of $139.47 to $136.18 and $131.09, respectively, in Q1 and Q2 of 2020. That is a decline of -2.3% in Q1 and a total decline of -6% in Q2.

Those numbers are now revised for a decline of -4.4% in Q1, and a total decline of 10.2% in Q2.”

So, with the entire U.S. economy shut down, 15-20% unemployment, and -20% GDP, earnings are only expected to decline by 10%?

But if you are chasing the market currently, this is what you are “buying into.”

Ingredients For A Bull Market Still Missing

As I discussed with our RIAPro Subscribers (30-day Risk-Free Trial) last week, the ingredients for a bull market are still missing.

“Bear market rally: It’s a big bounce, indeed, but that is what it is. A rally in the context of a bear market that began on February 19th. The fact that we are coming off the best two weeks for the Dow (+15.2%) since 1938 (a huge recession within the Great Depression) just about tells you all you need to know.

The market has certainly ‘ripped’ off the March lows, but there is still quite a bit of pain out there. The Russell 2000 index has only recouped one-third of its loss and is down 28% from the peak.” – David Rosenberg

The ratio of the Russell 2000 to the S&P 500 tells you all you need to know.

Also, the advance-decline line and the number of stocks trading below their 50- and 200-day moving averages are still incredibly weak.

As David concluded:

“The bear market is intact, even after the S&P 500 equal-weight index has staged a half-way comeback, it is down 21% from the February highs.

I recommend a read of the FT column titled Mind the Gap Between the Markets and the Real Economy. That’s the view from the stock market lens. A very bipolar market with several key segments still deeply injured. There is no durable rally you can count on without the banks participating, that much I do know. With small-caps being the true leading economic indicator, they remain entangled in a bear market; too many people are getting fooled by the mega-cap growth stocks (with a dominant 22% share of the market cap) carrying the S&P 500 on its shoulders.”

The Ranges Remain

What this all suggests is that “risk” still outweighs the potential “reward” of being aggressively invested in the markets currently.

It is worth remembering in January, and February, as the Fed was flooding the system with overnight liquidity via “repo operations,” we were recommending taking profits and reducing risks.

“When you sit down with your portfolio management team, and the first comment made is ‘this is nuts,’ it’s probably time to think about your overall portfolio risk. On Friday, that was how the investment committee both started and ended – ‘this is nuts.’  Such is why we took profits and reduced our risk.”

I remind you of this point as investors are chasing markets due to Fed liquidity, but as we saw in early March, the Fed’s “invisible hand” is not infallible.

The risk/reward ranges remain unchanged for the week as the market didn’t change much.

“Friday’s close brings the 61.8% retracement level AND the 200-dma into focus as the next resistance levels. The upside in the market remains limited to 4.5% to 7% currently. (This is certainly nothing to sneeze at, considering such would be regarded as a decent year’s worth of returns. That just shows how skewed things are currently.)

The downside risk ranges are a bit more disappointing.

  • -4.7% to the previous 50% retracement level:  risk/reward equally balanced.

  • -12.5% to the previous higher low: risk/reward is mildly out of favor.

  • -20.5% to the March 23rd low: risk/reward extremely out of favor.

From an optimistic view, a reopening of the economy, a virus vaccine, and an immediate return to low single-digit unemployment rates would greatly expand the bullish ranges for the market.

However, even a cursory review of the data suggests a more “realistic” view. The economic damage is going to be with us for a while. Until earnings estimates are revised substantially lower to reflect the ‘actual economy,’ I have to presume the relevant risks outweigh the current reward.”

We continue to remain long our reduced equity exposure and have been buying undervalued opportunities over the last few weeks. However, we are also balancing that equity exposure with offsetting hedges and a larger than average level of cash. We also have been increasing our duration in our bond portfolios as well as interest rates will continue to head toward ZERO this summer.

Just remember, when the market does bottom, there will be no one wanting to “buy.” 

We aren’t there yet.


Tyler Durden

Sun, 04/26/2020 – 10:30

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3aFiqyz Tyler Durden

Is The World About To Panic Hoard Nicotine Products After France’s Promising Coronavirus Study?

Is The World About To Panic Hoard Nicotine Products After France’s Promising Coronavirus Study?

France has banned the online sale of nicotine products after a new study suggests the highly addictive stimulant could lower the transmission risk of COVID-19, reported BBC News

The French government on Friday issued the new rule preventing online retailers from selling nicotine patches or other forms of nicotine products and requested all pharmacies to limit physical sales. 

Limitations on nicotine sales came after a new study last week via the Pitié-Salpêtrière University Hospital in Paris examined 343 COVID-19 patients along with 139 people with moderate symptoms. The result of the study was a low number of vrius patients were smokers, considering at least 35% of the population smokes cigarettes and uses nicotine products. 

“Among these patients, only five percent were smokers,” said Zahir Amoura, the study’s lead scientist. 

The research concluded similar findings in the New England Journal of Medicine that said 12.6% of 1,000 people infected in China were smokers.

According to neurobiologist Jean-Pierre Changeux from France’s Pasteur Institut, who co-lead the study, the theory behind the research is that nicotine could adhere to cell receptors and block the virus from entering cells and possibly prevent replication through the body. 

Researchers are waiting on regulatory approval to conduct a study that will place nicotine patches on doctors and nurses at Pitié-Salpêtrière hospital to see if it shields them from the virus. The patches will also be used on patients in the hospitals to see if it helps to reduce symptoms. Researchers claim nicotine could thwart “cytokine storms,” which is an overreaction of the immune system, and scientists believe it plays a crucial role in fatal COVID-19 cases. 

However, further research is needed, and there is nothing conclusive at the moment that nicotine patches reduce transmission risk. 

The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) said last week that smokers “may be at increased risk” of COVID-19 infection and could suffer more severe symptoms. 

The World Health Organization on Friday said the French findings were “not consistent with what we see in other countries.”

Search trend “nicotine coronavirus” has erupted across the US in the last several days. 

It remains to be seen if nicotine products can be effective against the virus. But we’re assuming, as per France’s measure to limit sales, panic-hoarding could be develop across the world if more promising results are released. 


Tyler Durden

Sun, 04/26/2020 – 09:55

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3bFk44d Tyler Durden

Panic Hoarding, Trains Halted & Low-Flying Helicopters In Pyongyang Amid Conflicting Kim Death Rumors

Panic Hoarding, Trains Halted & Low-Flying Helicopters In Pyongyang Amid Conflicting Kim Death Rumors

The rumor mill over the fate of Kim Jong Un has gone into overdrive, as the North Korean leader hasn’t been seen since April 11 – over two weeks ago. And as the New York Times notes in a Sunday morning report, North Korea’s recent silence on Kim is highly unusual, considering that rumors are flying that their leader is either dead or in a vegetative state after a botched heart surgery.

“North Korea is still sending letters and gifts to foreign leaders and domestic workers in the name of its leader, Kim Jong-un. Its news media brims, as usual, with panegyric propaganda extolling Mr. Kim’s leadership,” reports the Times.

North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un and his sister — and possible successor — Kim Yo Jong in 2018. Getty Images.

North Korea’s cover story through state-controlled media was that Kim was simply ‘evacuated’ from Pyongyang to the coast in order to better isolate against the spread of coronavirus.

But this official line (or at least one of many official lines) – along with several leaks, including one allegedly from a Chinese medical official with direct knowledge of what happened – has only served to fuel speculation and rumors. In recent days the hashtag #KIMJONGUNDEAD has begun to trend globally.

Here’s a brief rundown on the significant conflicting reports so far:

First, let’s not forget that MSNBC‘s Katie Tur tweeted last Monday – nearly one week agothat “Kim Jong Un is brain dead,” and that both NBC and CNN had confirmed his status. She quickly deleted the tweet “out of an abundance of caution.”

Japanese media: Kim is in a Vegetative State  

Reuters: China sent Medical Team

South Korea Government: Nothing unusual

US intelligence: Maybe Gravely ill while Seoul says can’t corroborate

Trump: “I think the report was incorrect.”

Satellite images: He’s outside of compound

Vice Director of Hong Kong Satellite Television (HKSTV): “Very solid source” says Dead

South Korean presidential aide: “Alive and well”

Inside North Korea: Rumors beginning to cause panic as “something has happened”. 

Concerning this last report, the rumors have apparently begun to cause a stir among the domestic population. 

The Washington Post reports Sunday:

“There’s been panic buying in the capital, with locals stocking up on everything from laundry detergent and rice to electronics to liquor. They started snapping up all imported products first, but in the last few days there’s been a run on domestically produced items too, like canned fish and cigarettes.”

Helicopters have been flying low over Pyongyang, trusted sources have told me, and trains within North Korea and also over the border in northern China have been disrupted,” WaPo notes, in what could be evidence the West is about to hear big news confirmed. 

In 2014 Kim disappeared for six weeks, sparking similar rumors. That said, a Chinese team wasn’t dispatched to assess his condition and/or try to save his life – at least not that we’re aware of.


Tyler Durden

Sun, 04/26/2020 – 09:45

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2Y6nyJ7 Tyler Durden