Category: zerohedge

Via Priceonomics.com,

Medical outcomes and the quality of healthcare are incredibly difficult to measure in America.

Patients often see many different doctors and hospitals and each of them administering small parts of the patient care. Getting the data from these disparate providers and assessing their relation to patient outcomes is next to impossible. Not only that, but how do you measure patient outcomes exactly? If a patient dies, is it because they got bad care or because they were extremely sick.

Amidst this chaos, there is one data source attempting to rate the quality of healthcare, particularly in hospitals — Medicare. Medicare, for those who are not familiar, is the federally funded insurance organization for senior citizens. Because virtually all spending and treatment for this population flows through Medicare, it’s in a unique position to measure hospital quality.

Starting April 2015, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS.gov) started releasing hospital quality rankings. This data was most recently updated in January 2020. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, CMS.gov, is part of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS.gov).

Along with Priceonomics customer PsyDPrograms.org, we decided to analyze this Medicare hospital quality data to see the states and cities with the best (and worst) hospitals in America. 

On the state level, Wisconsin, South Dakota and Utah have the best hospitals on average while Washington DC, New York, and Nevada have the worst-rated ones. Among the major cities we looked at Cincinnati, Austin and Indianapolis ranked as having the best hospitals, while Las Vegas, Brooklyn, and Washington DC ranked as having the worst.

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Before diving into the data, it’s worth spending a moment on the methodology.

For this analysis we looked at the CMS “Overall Hospital Quality Star Ranking” made most recently available in January 2020. In this data set, 3,698 hospitals were scored on a rating from 1 to 5 stars, with 5 stars being the best.

The CMS outlines their methodology for creating and the scoring hospitals here, which includes 57 different measures in categories such as patient experience, mortality, and safety of care. While this data is for Medicare and Medicaid patients, these hospitals tend to service patients of all age groups and income levels.

To begin, let’s look at which states have the highest rated hospitals on average according to the CMS. We group all hospitals by state and then calculate the average among hospitals that were given a star rating by the CMS. Below are all 50 states plus Washington, DC, ranked from states with the highest score to the lowest:

Wisconsin hospitals rank as the top in the country, with a 3.9 average quality score. Part of the reason for the state’s success is that it has a high number of Mayo Clinic hospitals in the state, all of which got over 5 stars. In South Dakota the Avera hospital network has five hospitals attaining the 5 star ranking.

Washington DC ranks as the area with the worst rated hospitals with a 1.4 star rating on average. While better rated hospitals are available in nearby Maryland and Virginia, DC hospitals have been criticized for failing at patient safety and maternal health. New York has the second worst CMS hospital ratings, despite spending more than any other state on healthcare.

Next, let’s extend this analysis to determine which cities have the best and worst rated hospitals according to the CMS. The chart below shows the average star quality in cities with at least 7 rated hospitals. Cities are ranked from highest average score to lowest:

Cincinnati ranks as the city with the highest rated hospitals in the United States, just beating out Austin and Indianapolis. Each of the top cities have mostly 5 and 4 star hospitals. On the other end of the spectrum, Las Vegas ranks as the the city with the worst rated hospitals in the country. Nearly every hospital in Las Vegas attains a 1-star rating, the lowest score given by the CMS. Part of this low score can be attributed to a shortage of doctors in the state of Nevada.

Lastly, is there any difference in quality score based on who owns the hospital? Do non-profits provide better quality of care over for-profits? Or are government organizations more effective? The chart below shows the average rating by ownership type:

By a considerable margin, physician-owned properties have the highest rating with a 3.9 average quality score. While there were only 34 of these types of properties rated by the CMS (approximately 1% of rated hospitals), it may be worth exploring if physician-owned hospitals have the promise to deliver better healthcare. State and Federal hospitals rank last when it comes to quality, just beating out proprietary (private hospitals).

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The CMS hospital data reveals there are huge disparities in the quality of care across America. For example, if you live in Las Vegas, almost every single hospital available is rated one-star. Other places like Cincinnati or Austin are virtually all four or five-star hospitals. While measuring health care quality is a challenging effort, the CMS data is a great starting point for finding out which hospitals are offering quality care and which ones are not.  As the old adage goes, you can’t improve what you don’t measure.

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If you’re a company that wants to work with Priceonomics to turn your data into great stories, learn more about the Priceonomics Data Studio. 

Fourteen states, one territory and Democrats abroad are voting in the Super Tuesday presidential primaries, with 1,357 delegates to the Democratic National Convention up for grabs.

The big question remains – How will the coronavirus affect the turnout of millions of voters.

And the results begin:

VIRGINIA (99 delegates)

Winner: Joe Biden

The former VP got 66% of the black vote. Bloomberg was a distant third which is a major blow given the time and effort he focused in that state.

VERMONT (16 delegates)

Winner: Bernie Sanders

100% expected to clinch his home state

*  *  *

Lots more to come.

• NORTH CAROLINA (110 delegates): Polls close at 7:30 p.m.

• ALABAMA (52 delegates): Polls close at 8 p.m.

• MAINE (24 delegates): Polls close at 8 p.m.

• MASSACHUSETTS (91 delegates): Polls close at 8 p.m.

• OKLAHOMA (37 delegates): Polls close at 8 p.m.

• TENNESSEE (64 delegates): Polls close at 8 p.m.

• TEXAS (228 delegates): Polls close at 8 p.m.

• ARKANSAS (31 delegates): Polls close at 8:30 p.m.

• COLORADO (67 delegates): Polls close at 9 p.m.

• MINNESOTA (75 delegates): Polls close at 9 p.m.

• UTAH (29 delegates): Polls close at 10 p.m.

• CALIFORNIA (415 delegates): Polls close at 11 p.m.

• AMERICAN SAMOA (6 delegates): Polls close at 12 midnight.

• DEMOCRATS ABROAD (13 delegates): Voting continues through March 10.

Developing…

*  *  *

The Democratic presidential contenders are poised to face off on Tuesday in one of the most consequential contests of the primary race so far, with 14 states set to vote and 1,300 delegates up for grabs.

As The Hill reports, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) heads into the contests as the front-runner after wins in New Hampshire and Nevada, as well as a virtual tie in Iowa, but former Vice President Joe Biden got a major boost after decisively winning South Carolina.

However, it appears the money is piling into Biden as prediction markets now have him at 54% chance of getting the nomination (vs Bernie, who has plunged to 40%)…

Super Tuesday will also mark the debut of former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg on the ballot. He will join a race that has significantly winnowed over the past three days with Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg, and billionaire Tom Steyer all dropping out.

The Primary Voters are considerably more diverse than recent primaries. Roughly four in 10 voters in today’s Democratic presidential primaries are people of color, according to the NBC News Exit Poll conducted in 12 of the 14 Super Tuesday states but today’s voters are on the older side – 64% of today’s Democratic voters are 45 or over, including the 29% of voters who are age 65 or over.

Here are the most crucial states to watch out for on Tuesday, according to The Hill: 

California 

California is the biggest prize of the evening, with 415 delegates up for grabs. 

Sanders is currently the clear favorite to win the Golden State, but Biden has an opportunity to put a dent in his support. The RealClearPolitics average from the Democratic primary’s California polls shows Sanders with a nearly 17 point lead over his rivals, but Biden’s support has ticked up in a few recent polls.  A CBS News/YouGov poll released Monday showed Sanders with 31 percent support in the state and Biden at 19 percent support, with Warren at 18 percent. Biden also stands to benefit in the state if he receives the support of former Buttigieg and Klobuchar voters. That would give him a better chance of reaching the 15 percent viability threshold in the state, providing him with a share of the delegates even if he does not win the state as a whole.  “We’re no longer dividing the pot between four, five or six people. We’re dividing it between three people,” said Kelly Dietrich, the founder and head of the National Democratic Training Committee, which trains Democrats to run for public office. However, it still remains to be seen what influence Bloomberg will have in the state where he’s spent $36 million on advertising alone.  “I think he’s going to have trouble competing in California,” Democratic strategist Brad Bannon said. “The fact that Joe Biden is a stronger candidate than he was three days ago hurts Bloomberg, who is also in the moderate lane.”  “Part of Bloomberg’s vote strategy was associated with [Biden’s] weakness, and Biden is now a stronger candidate,” he said. 

Texas 

The Lone Star State has the second-most delegates up for grabs, at 228. Sanders is leading in the state, but by a much narrower gap than in California. 

The RealClearPolitics polling average in Texas’s Democratic primary puts Sanders six points ahead of Biden.  Sanders is relying on his strong support among the Latino community in the state after he was propelled to victory in Nevada thanks in large part to Hispanic voters. A poll conducted by the firm Latino Decisions for Univision and the University of Houston’s Center for Mexican American Studies, shows Sanders polling at 31 percent support among Texas Hispanics, while Bloomberg and Biden trailed at 23 and 19 percent, respectively. The poll was released before South Carolina’s primary. Moe Vela, a Democratic strategist and White House adviser in the Clinton and Obama administrations, said Biden will need to improve his standing among the Hispanic community in order to perform well in states like Texas.  “As much credit as you have to give Bernie Sanders, I also have to say the vice president’s campaign needs to get their act together when it comes to the Latino electorate,” Vella, who sits on the board of Transparent Business, told The Hill. 

Massachusetts 

The Bay State could prove to be a death knell for Warren’s campaign if she does not perform well.

Despite her high name recognition and endorsements from some of the state’s progressive lawmakers, including Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) and Rep. Joe Kennedy (D-Mass.), recent polling shows Warren slipping in her home state. Suffolk University/Boston Globe/WBZ-TV poll released on Saturday shows Warren’s fellow New Englander Sanders leading with 24 percent support in the state, while she trailed at 22 percent, within the survey’s 4.4-percentage point margin of error. A WBUR survey released earlier last week showed an even wider gap, with Sanders at 25 percent support and Warren at 17 percent support. That poll’s margin of error was plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.  Warren’s performance in New Hampshire could offer some insight into how well she will perform in Massachusetts. The Granite State is famous for choosing New England candidates, voting for Sanders in 2016 and 2020. Warren, by contrast, came in fourth in New Hampshire, behind Midwesterners Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar.  “I think she definitely has to win Massachusetts tomorrow, in part to go out to the next wave of states,” Bannon said. [How] can you make a plea for votes there when you can’t win your own state?”

Virginia 

Virginia has the fourth largest share of delegates of the Super Tuesday contests and Bloomberg has paid close attention to the state.

Bloomberg has visited Virginia seven times, more than any other Super Tuesday state. The campaign has eight offices across the commonwealth, including in the Republican-leaning strongholds of Danville and Roanoke. More than 80 Bloomberg staffers are dispersed throughout Virginia. His campaign cites the need to keep the state blue after the legislature flipped to Democrats in 2019 and points to his heavy investment in advocating for stronger gun control measures in Virginia. The issue has played a central role in the state’s political discourse since the 2007 Virginia Tech shooting. “Virginia is a microcosm of one part of the future of the party, you know the moderate, progressive and suburban voters,” senior Bloomberg adviser Tim O’Brien told The Hill. Bloomberg himself touted his own work in the state’s 2019 elections during a get-out-the-vote event in McLean on Saturday. “It [was] so important to help flip the Virginia legislature blue this fall, and I was glad to help get it done,” Bloomberg said to a boisterous crowd. However, a number of recent polls show Bloomberg trailing Sanders and Biden in the state. Biden, in particular, could hurt Bloomberg’s chances in the state after a big win in South Carolina.Biden was also endorsed by a number of notable Democratic figures in Virginia recently. Former Gov. Terry McAuliffe, Sen. Tim Kaine, Rep. Elaine Luria, and Rep. Bobby Scott were all on hand for a Biden rally in Norfolk on Sunday evening where the former vice president received a rock star-like reception. 

Alabama 

African American voters make up a large share of the Democratic vote in Alabama, making the state critical for candidates looking to appeal to a voting group that is widely considered the backbone of the Democratic Party. 

Five Thirty-Eight’s forecast shows Biden with a 61 percent chance of winning the state. The former vice president stands to perform well with African American voters after an overwhelming win in South Carolina. Biden received a warm welcome in Selma on Sunday at an event marking the anniversary of the civil rights march. “The moderate African Americans tend to be the majority of the Democratic Party, or at least a large part,” Democratic strategist Jamal Simmons told The Hill. “Older African Americans who tend to be the leadership of these big parties in the states like Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia, they tend to be very pragmatic, if not more moderate. So that means they’re more likely to be Joe Biden voters.” While Sanders has relied on younger voters of color for support, he and Biden appeared to split the black youth vote in South Carolina, which might not bode well for the progressive senator in Alabama. “Bernie didn’t have his over performance with young African-Americans that he had in other places,” Simmons said, referring to South Carolina.

Who would Trump prefer? For now, prediction markets appear confident that whoever it is, Trump will win…

Acting Homeland Security Secretary Chad Wolf said last week that there’s no decision yet to raise the cap on the H-2B visa program for seasonal workers, and this could complicate things for Maryland’s seafood industry heading into crab season.

There are at least nine crab picking houses scattered in Dorchester County, Maryland, which produce about 95% of the state’s crab meat. Many operators are now warning the state government that they will have to scale back operations without an ample supply of seasonal workers from the H-2B visa program, reported the Maryland Department of Agriculture. 

“Blue crabs are an integral part of our state’s heritage and our economy,” said Secretary of Agriculture Joe Bartenfelder. “The world-class crabmeat produced by Maryland processors relies heavily on the availability of seasonal labor via the H-2B visa program. This survey reinforces what we have learned in previous years: a lack of reliable access to H-2B workers poses a major threat to the future of this iconic industry.”

Many of these crab picking businesses are family-owned and operated and are now on the brink of shuttering their doors without the proper access to cheap labor.

“It’s life or death for us,” said Bryan Hall, with W Hall & Son Hand Picked.

CBS Baltimore said seafood operators along the Chesapeake Bay heavily rely on the temporary work visa program to supply cheap labor. 

“Right now, there are six of us in danger of not opening up at all this year,” said John Walker, with Phillips AE Sons.

Walker said after a century in business, there’s the uncertainty that operations in 2020 could remain closed as labor shortages persist.

“If we do not get these pickers, we’re closed,” Walker said.

The Department of Agriculture warned that if additional help is not seen on the Chesapeake Bay during the start of the crab season, the industry could lose as much as $150 million.

“If you take 2.54 American jobs created by each one of these folks that come here, we’re looking at over 1,000 jobs, American jobs, that are dependent on these visas,” said Jack Brooks, with the Chesapeake Bay Seafood Foundation.

Crab season starts on April 1, and if cheap labor isn’t supplied to crab pickers via the H-2B program in the next couple of weeks, it could turn out to be a disastrous year for Maryland’s beloved seafood industry.

Authored by Jeffrey M. Jones via Gallup

A new Gallup poll finds Americans’ favorable rating of China has declined further in the past year, sinking to a record-tying low. For the first time in more than a decade, Americans regard the U.S. rather than China as the world’s leading economic power. And with fewer Americans than in 2019 naming Russia as the United States’ greatest enemy, Russia and China now tie for first on that list.

Thirty-three percent of Americans currently have a favorable opinion of China, a 20-percentage-point decline since 2018 and an eight-point drop in the past year. China’s current favorable rating ties prior readings from 1997 and 2000 as the lowest in Gallup’s trend, dating back to 1979. It is similar to the 34% reading in 1989, taken after the Chinese government’s crackdown on student protestors in Tiananmen Square.

The latest poll, conducted Feb. 3-16, follows recent news about ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China and disputes over China’s territorial claims in international waters. The coronavirus outbreak, recent allegations of spying by Chinese students and scholars at U.S. colleges, and the ongoing battle with Chinese tech company Huawei over the alleged theft of U.S. technology may also be contributing to the decline in China’s favorable rating.

Historically, Americans have tended not to have positive views of China. Just three times in Gallup’s trend have a majority of Americans rated it positively, including the initial measure in 1979, the pre-Tiananmen Square rating of 72% in early 1989 and a 53% favorable rating in 2018.

Opinions of China have deteriorated among each of the major U.S. party groups over the past two years, including a 14-point decline among independents, a 24-point drop among Republicans and a 25-point slide among Democrats.

Democrats typically have had more positive opinions of China than Republicans have, and that remains the case today, with 35% of Democrats and 23% of Republicans rating it favorably. Thirty-nine percent of independents have favorable views of China.

Americans Return to Viewing U.S. as Leading Economic Power

More Americans regard the U.S. (50%) rather than China (39%) as the world’s leading economic power, with relatively few choosing the European Union (4%), Japan (4%), Russia (2%) or India (1%).

Throughout the past decade, Americans consistently named China as the leading economic power, including by roughly 20-point margins between 2011 and 2014.

As the U.S. economy continued its expansion in recent years, China still led, though by smaller margins. Now, with Americans’ economic confidence the best it’s been in two decades, they once again believe the U.S. is the leading economic power.

The only other time Gallup found the U.S. leading on this measure was in 2000 during the dot-com boom, the first time the question was asked. At that time, 65% of Americans said the U.S. was the leading economic power, with only 10% choosing China, putting it third behind the U.S. and Japan (16%).

Americans also name the U.S. over China, by 53% to 30%, when asked to predict which country will be the world’s leading economic power 20 years from now. Since 2016, Americans have been at least marginally more likely to predict the U.S. would be the leading economy over China. In 2008, 2011 and 2012, more thought China would be than the U.S.

Americans Name Russia, China as Greatest U.S. Enemies

China typically has been among the more common answers Americans give when asked to name the United States’ greatest enemy in the world. This year, China ties with Russia for first, as mentions of Russia have declined nine points to 23% while mentions of China are steady at 22%. Iran is a close third at 19%, after mentions of it more than doubled from 9% a year ago.

Between 10% and 23% of Americans have named China as the United States’ No. 1 enemy since Gallup first asked the question in 2001. China was named more than any other country once, in 2014. That year, mentions of China were steady at 20%, but it ranked first because fewer Americans mentioned Iran after it agreed to an interim nuclear deal with the West in 2013.

In prior years, Americans have also considered Iraq, Iran, North Korea and Russia as their country’s greatest enemy.

Partisans have very different views of the United States’ greatest enemy. Democrats name Russia (43%) by a wide margin over any other country. Republicans are most likely to name China (31%) or Iran (30%). Independents split their vote among China (23%) and Russia (22%).

Republicans were also most likely to name China or Iran as the United States’ top enemy in 2019, but more now choose each than did so a year ago (an 11-point increase on Iran and nine points on China).

There has been no meaningful change in the percentage of Democrats naming Russia as the United States’ greatest enemy (46% in 2019 vs. 43% today). But fewer independents now name Russia than did so a year ago (down 12 points), and more name Iran (up 11 points).

Bottom Line

Americans’ views of China have rarely been positive over the past four decades, but they have never held the country in lower regard than they do today. In just two years, the percentage of Americans rating China favorably has dropped by 20 points.

With the two nations embroiled in a major trade battle, among other issues, Americans likely will continue to view China unfavorably until tensions subside on some fronts. While many Americans may not see China as an imminent military threat to the U.S., some combination of its economic power, military strength and controversial policies compel about one in five U.S. adults to consider it their country’s greatest enemy today, on par with Russia and Iran.

View complete question responses and trends.

Learn more about how the Gallup Poll Social Series works.

Apple’s top supplier Foxconn warned on Tuesday that consumer electronics and enterprise product revenue would decline by 15% in the first quarter, but a rebound in business activity could be seen shortly after that, as full production targets have now been set for the end of March, reported Reuters. 

Foxconn has been one of the hardest-hit manufacturers in China, still operating at 50% capacity as a slow ramp of its factories has been underway amid factory shutdowns because of the Covid-19 outbreak last month.

The company told investors they shouldn’t expect revenue growth in the first half and a “mild downward revision” from the original guidance of “slight growth” projected earlier this year. Its new guidance said the virus impact of its Chinese operations would be short term and full production could resume by the end of the month. 

“Prevention of outbreak, resumption of work and production are our top priority,” Foxconn’s Chairman Liu Young-Way told investors on Tuesday.

As readers recall, Foxconn originally had plans to restart production around February 10-12, with full production by the start of March. Still, those production targets have been off by about a month as much of China’s economy remains shuttered for virus containment purposes. 

Foxconn’s supply chain shock led to Apple last month admitting it does “not expect to meet the revenue guidance we provided for the March quarter” due to virus related issues.

Foxconn’s crippled supply chain in China has led to iPhone disruption in India. There’s even the risk of iPhone and Airpod shortages in the US if factory shutdowns in China persist. Apple could find itself rescheduling new product launches this year. 

Foxconn, already dealing with a supply shock, could also be hit with a demand shock as China’s mobile phone industry crashed the most on record in January.

Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

As Americans scramble to prepare themselves for the possibility that the coronavirus outbreak becomes a pandemic, FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency) is also preparing.  FEMA is “aware of the gravity of the situation” and ready to assist in a coronavirus response.

FEMA officials are preparing for an “infectious disease emergency declaration” by the president that would allow the agency to provide disaster relief funding to state and local governments, as well as federal assistance to support the coronavirus response, according to agency planning documents reviewed by NBC News.

The Trump administration would have to use the 1988 Stafford Act to enable FEMA to provide such disaster assistance. Emergency declarations are most often used in the event of natural disasters but can be used to help manage disease outbreaks.

“To me, this is another indication that the president and the White House are finally aware of the gravity of the situation,” said Michael Coen, who was FEMA chief of staff during the Obama administration.

“They need to consider all tools available to them and have contingencies for action.”

But it isn’t immediately clear just what all of that could mean.

“I actually find this reassuring,” said Tim Manning, who was a FEMA deputy administrator under President Barack Obama.

“I hope this discussion has been happening continuously over the last couple of months.”

An emergency declaration would allow FEMA to provide disaster medical assistance teams, mobile hospitals, and military transport, among other kinds of federal support, Manning said.

FEMA’s disaster relief fund has a current balance of $34 billion, according to the latest agency update. “It’s money that’s sitting there and ready,” said another former FEMA official, who declined to be identified. –NBC News

Legendary rap group Public Enemy has cut ties with one of its most well known members, Flavor Flav. And it looks like it could be all Bernie Sanders’ fault. 

After 35 years the group is splitting up as a result of Flav taking a page out of liberal musicians’ books and sending a cease and desist letter to Sanders for using Flav’s “unauthorized likeness, image, and trademarked clock” to promote a Sanders rally, despite the fact that Flav hasn’t endorsed any political candidate. 

Shortly thereafter, Public Enemy released a statement: 

“Public Enemy and Public Enemy Radio will be moving forward without Flavor Flav. We thank him for his years of service and wish him well.”

According to Rolling Stone, Flav had his lawyer send the letter, which said the following:

“The planned performance will only be Chuck D of Public Enemy, it will not be a performance by Public Enemy. Those who truly know what Public Enemy stands for know what time it is. There is no Public Enemy without Flavor Flav.

“Flav … has not endorsed any political candidate in this election cycle.… The continued publicizing of this grossly misleading narrative is, at a minimum, careless and irresponsible if not intentionally misleading,” Friedman added in the letter. “It is unfortunate that a political campaign would be so careless with the artistic integrity of such iconoclastic figures in American culture.”

In a handwritten note at the bottom of the cease-and-desist, Flavor Flav wrote to Sanders, “Hey Bernie, don’t do this.”

Meanwhile, Public Enemy released a statement on Monday claiming that the band’s departure didn’t have to do with Flav’s cease and desist letter to Sanders. 

The band said: “Flavor Flav has been on suspension since 2016 when he was MIA from the Harry Belafonte benefit in Atlanta, Georgia. That was the last straw for the group. He had previously missed numerous live gigs from Glastonbury to Canada, album recording sessions and photo shoots. He always chose to party over work.”

the Bernie Sanders campaign has inadvertently led to the end of Public Enemy: Chuck D fired Flavor Flav for complaining that it looked like Public Enemy was endorsing Sanders — the final break after years of in-fighting https://t.co/6s7nqrjaUo

— Edward-Isaac Dovere (@IsaacDovere) March 2, 2020

The band continued: “Public Enemy Radio toured Europe and co-headlined with the Wu-Tang Clan in May 2019 without Flavor. They have also done numerous benefit shows without Flavor … While Public Enemy Radio was moving forward, Flavor Flav was starring on the reality show Growing Up Hip-Hop New York, where an episode featured his children discussing an intervention and putting him into rehab … It’s time to move on and everyone wishes Flavor well.”

We can’t help but ask, how is Bernie going to claim he’s going to unify black voters, if he just potentially split up Public Enemy?

You can read the full cease and desist letter here:

 

Authored by Bruce Wilds via Advancing Time blog,

Based on how Japan has fared over the last several decades it is difficult to see the green shoots of a global economic spring forth as a result of lower interest rates.

In fact, the next economic downturn will likely envelope the planet and may last forever and a day. This is because central bank intervention and manipulation often carries with it negative unintended consequences. People often forget how lucky Japan has been during its trying times to be located next to China. Because of China’s years of booming growth, Japan has been able to mitigate much of the pain that occurred when its economic bubble burst in 1992.

In the decades since, Japan’s stock market has never again come near the lofty peak it hit back then. During the years after Japan’s fall from grace, it was able to soften the impact of its economic problems by strengthening ties with rapidly growing China which needed help in developing its export-driven economy. Today many people feel the global economy is in a bubble eerily similar to the one experienced by Japan before its implosion. The question is not whether the market and economy are about to undergo a massive reset but when. Concern is also growing as to how deep, painful, and long the next downturn will last.

A huge factor in the world trudging forward following 2008 is the massive growth in the money supply and debt over the last several decades. This growth in debt and credit has exploded making the financial sector a far bigger part of our economy than it should be. The economy has become more about asset values than solid growth in production, this has added to inequality and this does not create a healthy environment for investors. Much of this trend has been predicated on central banks continuing to move interest rates lower and lower. While rate cuts may temporarily mask economic weakness or halt declining asset prices they come at a price, this can be seen in the way they destroy true price discovery.

Following the financial crisis of 2008, governments and bankers have joined together to form the “Financial-Political Complex.” Years ago President Eisenhower warned the American people about the Industrial Military Complex, but nobody warned us of this new threat. Instead, we were told to embrace the closer ties between the bankers and government officials as a good thing. While this evil alliance halted and reversed the carnage taking place in the stock markets it did little to solve the core issues we faced, in fact, by allowing the government to ignore and avoid necessary reforms it has made them far worse.

We have dodged many economic challenges since 2008 as the so-called economic recovery grew long in the tooth. Time after time, the creative folks that make up the Financial-Political Complex have been able to pull rabbits out of their hats and manipulates asset prices ever higher.

This has extended the illusion that all is well. Today, they are faced with a new challenge, the coronavirus, it has battered markets as it spreads across the globe. This monster has halted travel, put hundreds of millions of people into weeks of lock-down quarantines, disrupted supply chains, and respects no borders.

The economic impact of this event cannot be simply brushed aside or denied. Because it strikes at the very heart of  the economy it cannot be easily fixed by lowering interest rates. It attacks both supply and demand as well as production and productivity. It will also hit hard the small businesses that form the backbone of our communities and make things work. While large companies can get loans and money from Wall Street and banks, small business is often shunned by both as an area where it is difficult to make a profit. Most small businesses with just a few workers do not have the financial resources to suffer through weeks or months where employees don’t work and they have no income. In most cases, their bills will continue to roll in and this means many will be forced to close.

On Monday the Financial-Political Complex again defied the markets will by thwarting its effort to correct. The BOJ which already owns 80% of all outstanding ETF’s bought a record 101 billion yen of ETFs to stabilize the market. China’s PBOC also jumped in with promises of support and so did the IMF. This was followed by Kudlow and Mnuchin calling for Fed Chairman Jay Powell to do what Trump wants, which is to rapidly lower interest rates. Near the end of the day, Trump was able to shore up the markets by voicing an optimistic tone about progress on vaccines and treatments. All this resulted in the Dow finishing the day a massive 1,850 points off its overnight lows.

The problem is that for a decade the actions of the Financial-Political Complex have destroyed true price discovery and increased inequality. Their policies have rewarded the same group of people, banks, and institutions that created many of our financial problems.

It is time they face reality and admit they are on the wrong path. The argument all this has been done for the greater good is beginning to fall on deaf ears as confidence in the financial system weakens. This can be seen in the Sanders for President movement, a growing number of voters have joined Sanders in demanding change, when he calls for a revolution they hear him, and say yes.

The gist of how everyone wants you to respond to the coronavirus mostly boils down to normal hygiene: wash your hands, don’t touch your face and keep your distance from people that appear to be sick.

Vice President and coronavirus czar Mike Pence violated all of these rules in one fell swoop during last week’s coronavirus press conference when he wiped his nose with his hands, moments before shaking the hands of doctors on the stage tasked with combating the ongoing virus outbreak, according to The Independent. 

Talk about setting the cause back…

Today at the corona virus press conference, @VP wiped his nose with his hands then proceeded to shake everyone’s hands 😳😅

Pence is leading the response against #coronavirus pic.twitter.com/Bb54CzXsUe

— Nathaniel #purplewaveUSA 💜🌊 (@NewGopforUSA) February 27, 2020

Pence’s appointment has already been controversial, with many claiming he is “anti-science” and has a lack of medical experience.

Others have said he is dangerously slow to respond to health crises, as indicated by his response to an HIV/AIDS outbreak in his home state of Indiana while he was Governor. 

Following this press conference last week, in which President Trump said the virus was under control, dozens of more cases and several deaths have been reported in the U.S.

In an interview yesterday with Bloomberg, Dr Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said coronavirus was at “pandemic” levels. 

Perhaps self-confessed germophobe President Trump might consider “picking” someone different to lead the charge…

 

Oil prices have been volatile in the last few days, rallying on an OPEC+ committee recommendation that the group agree to production cuts of up to one-million barrels per day (but Russia still on the fence about deeper cuts) when the group meets later this week.

“Concerns of weak demand are still present. We’ll be looking to see if exports slowed due to the coronavirus,” says Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group.

For tonight, all eyes are once again on inventories for any signs of the start of the demand collapse hitting supplies.

API

• Crude +1.69mm (+3mm exp)

• Cushing -1.352mm

• Gasoline -3.9mm (-1.87mm exp)

• Distillates -1.7mm (-2mm exp)

Expectations were for crude inventories to rise for the 6th straight week and API confirmed that but the build was smaller than expected. However, major draws in products were notable…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI was hovering around $47.30 ahead of the API data and barely budged on the inventory data…

“While lower rates would marginally reduce costs of carrying oil inventory, this factor is modest in relation to the dramatic cut in petroleum demand that is currently being seen around the world,” analysts at Ritterbusch & Associates wrote in a Tuesday note.

Further on the downside, Goldman forecast a 150k b/d decline in oil demand in 2020 – the lowest annual growth rate since the 2008/2009 financial crisis, cutting its Brent forecast for Q2 to $47 (from %57).

The Fed’s move is “a sign that the economic fall out may be worse than expected,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at The Price Futures Group.

“There seems to be a lot of uncertainty, but we know that ultimately the rate cut will stabilize the market,” he told MarketWatch. “Don’t be surprised if we get a snap back later.”

At current demand forecast, Goldman says current spot prices are already pricing in a 2m b/d production cut by OPEC in 2Q… which may be a little over-optimistic.