VIX Closes At Record High As S&P Breaks Critical Trendline Support

VIX Closes At Record High As S&P Breaks Critical Trendline Support

Just to provide a little focused context on US markets, three major things occurred today:

1) this was the 3rd biggest down day for stocks… ever – Great Depression, 1987 and… now

Source: Bianco Research

2) VIX closed at a record high – higher than the highest close during the Great Financial Crisis…

3) The S&P 500 broke below (and closed below) the 11-year up-trendline from the March 2009 ‘generational low’ for the first time…

And all that amid the most massive monetary intervention ever seen. As we detailed earlier, while this deserves an extended discussion, we will merely point out that each day there a distinct part of the credit and/or funding market is breaking:

  • One day it is ETF NAV discounts blowing out

  • The next day the treasury Treasury/Swap basis surges and basis funds suffer a historic VaR crash amid forced liquidations

  • Day three sees the FRA/OIS explode higher as a massive dollar funding margin call strikes

  • Then, day four sees the same repo crisis that was supposed to be fixed back in September return with a vengeance, as banks freak out about counterparty risk.

What the Fed needs is the monetary equivalent of Dr. House: someone who can diagnose what is actually wrong with the monetary plumbing, instead of using the same old shotgun approach of shoveling trillions in blunt liquidity into the market, which clearly is not working anymore.


Tyler Durden

Mon, 03/16/2020 – 16:27

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2vv4SHk Tyler Durden

Foreign Central Banks Dump Treasuries For 17th Straight Month, Continue To Hoard More Gold

Foreign Central Banks Dump Treasuries For 17th Straight Month, Continue To Hoard More Gold

For the first time since June, China added to its US Treasury holdings in January (the latest month from TIC data).

The total for China — the second-largest holder of U.S. government debt after Japan – rose $8.7 billion in January to $1.08 trillion.

Source: Bloomberg

The coming months’ data will help show if the virus’s blow to China’s economy is starting to pressure central bank officials to sell Treasuries to support the yuan, a step they’ve avoided over the past several years, preferring instead to manage the currency via the daily fixing, says Mark Sobel, former IMF and Treasury official and chair of the OMFIF.

If COVID-19 hit the yuan hard, he said, “China might intervene to cushion any decline.”

Japan remains the largest foreign holder with $1.21 trillion, as the value of its holdings rose $56.8 billion at the start of the year, the data showed.

Source: Bloomberg

Overall, Foreigners were net buyers of US assets excluding corporate debt

  • Foreign net buying of Treasuries at $25.6b
  • Foreign net buying of equities at $2b
  • Foreign net selling of corporate debt at $31.8b
  • Foreign net buying of agency debt at $32.3b

But foreign central banks dumped US Treasuries for the 17th straight month…

Source: Bloomberg

But, while reducing of exposure to US Treasuries continues worldwide, Central banks started out 2020 buying more gold.

Source: Bloomberg

On net, central banks added 21.5 tons of gold to their reserves in January, according to the latest data from the World Gold Council.

Central bank demand came in at 650.3 tons in 2019. That was the second-highest level of annual purchases for 50 years, just slightly below the 2018 net purchases of 656.2 tons. According to the WGC, 2018 marked the highest level of annual net central bank gold purchases since the suspension of dollar convertibility into gold in 1971, and the second-highest annual total on record.

The World Gold Council bases its data on information submitted to the International Monetary Fund.

Turkey was the leading gold-buyer in January. The Turks added 16.2 tons of gold to their reserves.

Russia continued to stockpile the yellow metal, adding another 8.1 tons to their hoard. Russia’s quest for gold has paid off in a big way. The Russian Central Bank’s gold reserves topped $100 billion in September 2019 thanks to continued buying and surging prices.

The Russians have been buying gold for the last several years in an effort to diversify away from the US dollar.  Russian gold reserves increased 274.3 tons in 2018, marking the fourth consecutive year of plus-200 ton growth. Meanwhile, the Russians sold off nearly all of its US Treasury holdings. According to Bank of America analysts,  the amount of US dollars in Russian reserves fell from 46% to 22% in 2018.

Mongolia and Kazakhstan both added 1 ton of gold to their reserves in January. The only other buyer was Greece at 0.1 tons.

There were two significant net-sellers – Uzbekistan (2.2t) and Qatar (1.6t).

The People’s Bank of China did not report any gold purchases for the fourth straight month  It’s not uncommon for China to go silent and then suddenly announce a large increase in reserves.

January’s net gold purchases represented a 57% decline year-on-year. World Gold Council analyst Krishan Gopaul said it was too early to determine what this could mean for 2020.

World Gold Council director of market intelligence Alistair Hewitt said there are two major factors driving central banks to buy gold – geopolitical instability and extraordinarily loose monetary policy.

Central banks are looking toward gold to balance some of that risk. We’ve also got negative rates and yields for a large number of sovereign bonds.”

“This recent trend shouldn’t be ignored. But nor should we also lose sight of the fact that central banks remain net purchasers, even if at a lower level than we have come to expect to in the last two years.”

Peter Schiff has talked about central bank gold-buying. He has noted that the US went off the gold standard in 1971, but he thinks the world is going to go back on it.

The days where the dollar is the reserve currency are numbered and we’re going back to basics. You know, everything old is new again. Gold was money in the past and it will be money again in the future, and central banks that are smart enough to read that writing on the wall are increasing their gold reserves now.”

Ron Paul made a similar point in an episode of the Liberty report. He said foreign central banks are increasingly gravitating to sound money like gold and ripping themselves away from the Fed’s dollar.

The central banks of the world are looking at gold again.”


Tyler Durden

Mon, 03/16/2020 – 16:12

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3aZ27gs Tyler Durden

Amazon Hiring 100,000 Warehouse And Delivery Workers As Coronavirus-Driven Purchases Explode

Amazon Hiring 100,000 Warehouse And Delivery Workers As Coronavirus-Driven Purchases Explode

Amazon will hire 100,000 employees in the US to cope with the surge of Americans turning to online deliveries amid the coronavirus outbreak, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Employees will also earn $2 more per hour through April, along with an additional £2 for UK workers and €2 an hour for workers in many EU countries. The current starting wage is $15 per hour in its fulfillment centers around the US.

We are seeing a significant increase in demand, which means our labor needs are unprecedented for this time of year,” said semior VP of operations, Dave Clark, in a memo reviewed by the Journal.

With the coronavirus spreading throughout the U.S. and states implementing restrictions on large gatherings, more customers are turning to online shopping for everything from grocery delivery to paper towels, cleaning supplies and daily needs. Amazon, which also owns grocery store chain Whole Foods, was one of the companies President Trump mentioned during his update on the coronavirus on Sunday. Amazon accounts for 39% of all online orders in the U.S., according to eMarketer, and is shouldering a lot of those needs. –Wall Street Journal

Amazon also expanded its sick-leave policy last Wednesday to include part-time warehouse workers. They company has also set up a relief fund with an initial $25 million for drivers and other delivery partners affected by the outbreak.

According to the report, the 100,000 new jobs come at a time when retail is collapsing and retailers are considering widespread closure of physical stores. Nike, Apple and Lululemon have all announced temporary store closures, while people working in the entertainment, restaurant and hospitality industries are facing furloughs as cities and states restrict gatherings in public places.

 


Tyler Durden

Mon, 03/16/2020 – 16:05

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2xM5Y2h Tyler Durden

“Total F**king Carnage” – Global Liquidation Accelerates Despite Massive Monetary Intervention

“Total F**king Carnage” – Global Liquidation Accelerates Despite Massive Monetary Intervention

The Fed unleashed a massive QE5/rate-cut/swap-line splooge overnight…

And here’s what The Fed hoped it would achieve…

Here’s what the market thought of it…

As one veteran trader exclaimed in FULL CAPS over text: “it’s total f**king global carnage” as wherever you look today there is blood in the streets.

For example:

  • STOXX EUROPE 600 ENDS DOWN 4.9%, LOWEST CLOSE SINCE MID-2013

  • SOUTH AFRICA’S FTSE/JSE INDEX FALLS AS MUCH AS 12.2%, MOST EVER

  • MUNI BONDS EXTEND WORST ROUT SINCE 1987

  • COPPER SLUMPS AS MUCH AS 5.2% AMID WEAKENING RISK APPETITE

  • BRENT CRUDE OIL PLUNGES BELOW $30 FOR FIRST TIME SINCE 2016

  • SILVER PLUNGES TO 2011 LOWS

  • U.S. WHOLESALE GASOLINE PRICES PLUNGE 21%

  • HYG WORST DROP SINCE 2008

  • LQD WORST DROP SINCE 2008

Year-to-date, the long-bond is the best-performing asset with stocks the worst and gold just dipping into the red today…

Source: Bloomberg

Only Dow Industrials is still green from the start of 2019…

Source: Bloomberg

Since Trump’s election, Small Caps and Transports are now down 8% and 12% respectively…

Source: Bloomberg

And to comprehend what just happened, Small Caps and Trannies are down 35% from their highs and the rest of the majors down around 27%…

Source: Bloomberg

Seems like Hindenberg nailed it again…

Source: Bloomberg

Chinese stocks are starting to awaken from their margin-fueled stupor…

Source: Bloomberg

European stocks crashed to their lowest since Nov 2012…

Source: Bloomberg

Elsewhere in Europe, banking stocks were a bloodbath, smashed to their lowest since 1987…

Source: Bloomberg

With Deutsche Bank reaching the vinegar strokes, below EUR5 for the first time ever…

Source: Bloomberg

US Futures were halted limit-down overnight, and when cash markets opened, they were halted (down over 7%) before rallying all the way back up to the halted levels before slumping back… Losses accelerated into the close as the White House press conference began…

US Equity ETFs showed the price action a little better (as they were not halted overnight)…

On the cash side, The Dow ended back below 21,000 (crashing 3,000 points today)

…but Small Caps were the worst hit on the day…

The December 2018 lows are all that matters for now for the S&P 500…

Source: Bloomberg

And the S&P is at key support…

The Dow has caught down to its EPS contraction… but will multiples collapse even more?

Source: Bloomberg

Bank stocks were destroyed today after abandoning buyback plans, erasing all post-Trump-election gains…

Source: Bloomberg

And just when you thought virus-impacted sectors had priced it all in… they plunge another 10-12%…

Source: Bloomberg

It’s been total liquidation…

Source: Bloomberg

The virus trade continues to play extremely well… Long Food, Short Leisure…

Source: Bloomberg

VIX spiked even higher today, within reach of its record highs…

Source: Bloomberg

And systemic event risk is soaring…

Source: Bloomberg

Credit markets suffered more carnage with IG spreads exploding higher…

Source: Bloomberg

As well as HY…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields plunged today, crashing at the open before rising around the European open before being dumped after Europe closed…

Source: Bloomberg

The entire curve was lower but the short-end underperformed…flattening the yield curve.

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar surged for the 5th straight day, rallying 3.9% – the biggest 5-day jump since Lehman…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos went on a wild roller-coaster in the last 24 hours, crashing 10-2% before ripping back…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar’s ongoing surge (amid liquidity shortages) prompted further liquidations across commodities with Silver slammed the most…

Source: Bloomberg

Precious metals were broadly pummelled today with gold majorly outperforming (NOTE – the precious metal puke started as Europe opened)…

Source: Bloomberg

Silver puke below $12 today…

Which sent the gold/silver ratio exploding to a record high…

Source: Bloomberg

And WTI busted back below $30…

And finally, despite massive monetary intervention overnight, the global shortage just went to ’11’…

Source: Bloomberg

The market got its 100bps cut and is still demanding more…

Source: Bloomberg

And the number of bets on The Fed going negative are soaring…

Source: Bloomberg


Tyler Durden

Mon, 03/16/2020 – 16:00

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/38TIqp0 Tyler Durden

Elon Musk To His Workers: “You’re More Likely To Die In A Car Crash Than From Coronavirus”

Elon Musk To His Workers: “You’re More Likely To Die In A Car Crash Than From Coronavirus”

Elon Musk is telling his workers that they have a higher risk of dying in a car crash than from coronavirus, in what has become the latest in a string of actions Musk appears to be taking to try and downplay the pandemic crisis that the globe now faces.

In a company-wide e-mail on Friday, Musk said that the evidence surrounding the virus “suggests that this is *not* within the top 100 health risks in the United States,” according to BuzzFeed. Musk said in the e-mail that employees who feel ill should stay home.

His e-mail continued: “Isn’t C19 growing so fast that it will soon become a top 100 health risk for people who are otherwise healthy and young to middle-aged? The trends do not support this conclusion. Among other things, the media is using the ‘presumed’ positive number of C19 cases, not the *confirmed* number.”

Musk also added to his pompous diatribe: “As a basis for comparison, the risk of death from C19 is *vastly* less than the risk of death from driving your car home. There are about 36 thousand automotive deaths per deaths [sic], as compared to 36 so far this year for C19.”

That is, of course, unless your “car” is a Tesla on Autopilot…

While other cities and corporations are taking precautions and locking down their employees, Musk’s SpaceX in Hawthorne, California, and Tesla’s offices and factories, remain open.

Amesh Adalja, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security told BuzzFeed: “It doesn’t make logical sense comparing those types of things. This virus is not a containable virus, and while most people do well with it, there is a proportion that don’t. People may end up dying from this, and we should be focused on trying to limit people’s exposure.”

“Once we saw what happened with the windows of the [Cybertruck], maybe we should be worried about those crashes,” Brandon Brown, an associate professor of epidemiology at the University of California, commented.

It was just days ago that we reported that America’s favorite sociopath CEO had Tweeted out that the coronavirus panic was “dumb”. Just hours after that, he again took to Twitter to double down on his statement and defend his reasoning using a word salad of half-assed smart-sounding terms that amounted to one giant non-sequitur.

Asked by another Twitter user what his reasoning was for calling the panic “dumb”, Musk responded by Tweeting:

“Virality of C19 is overstated due to conflating diagnosis date with contraction date & over-extrapolating exponential growth, which is never what happens in reality. Keep extrapolating & virus will exceed mass of known universe!”

One thing Musk may want to start extrapolating, however, is what happens when a cash strapped money losing company watches its worldwide production and demand simultaneously come to a halt at the time its stock crashes. And, continuing to extrapolate, what happens to its CEO who has loans against all of his shares? 

And one more extrapolation: what happens when that company is a key piece in a house of cards that holds up several other business ventures?


Tyler Durden

Mon, 03/16/2020 – 16:00

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/38SrvmI Tyler Durden

$290 Billion Fund’s Advice To Investors: Don’t Look At Markets

$290 Billion Fund’s Advice To Investors: Don’t Look At Markets

112-year-old Scottish fund manager Baillie Gifford has seen market crises come and go before and as Covid-19, an oil-price war and fears of a U.S. recession are slamming global markets, partner Stuart Dunbar has one key piece of advice: Don’t panic.

With $290 billion under management, Dubar explained to Bloomberg (in the following edited and condensed transcript) his firm’s approach and why it’s best not to keep staring at the screens.

What should investors do in times of crisis?

The answer is, fundamentally, don’t panic. If you’re investing in a company on a 10-year view because you think it’s got wonderful opportunities and will grow to be a multiple of its current size, what’s changed in the last two months?

There are all sorts of near-term challenges. About short-term growth, about how companies are operating, about doing the right thing for stakeholders, for staff, for society in general when you’re confronted with a pandemic. Now everyone has an obligation to respond to that in a way that’s socially responsible, including this firm.

That’s what we’re in the midst of. I don’t think it makes a significant difference to whether great companies will be hugely successful in a 10-year view.

How much of the market is noise?

The market is a whole bunch of people speculating with a whole bunch of other people through the medium of share prices. That’s got very little to do with the fundamental progression of great companies. The market went up, the market went down. That’s just some kind of average measure of a bunch of people betting against each other from one day to the next. It’s really not that interesting. What ought to matter is the long term operational progression of the small number of companies that go on to be great.
Investing is capital deployment.

How are Baillie Gifford’s holdings doing?

There will be companies in our portfolios that are going to take a short-term hit on profits and growth because of coronavirus. Does that in some way completely change the long-term prospects for those companies? I can’t think of any cases where it does. Our approach to investing is such that unless the investment case is broken, if this is just noise, we’ll ignore it.

What if markets continue to sink?

If markets halve, we’re not going to sack half our people, we’re just going to make a lot less money for awhile. It’s not in the client’s interests to react in the short term to that sort of stuff. And it’s much easier to do that if you don’t have outside shareholders barking at you to try and hit profit targets every year.

What did you do in 2008?

We did absolutely nothing. Nothing. On the investment side, we took advantage of market falls to buy a bit more of companies that we liked. But I wouldn’t want to give the impression that there was a frenzy of activity. We did nothing that was out of the ordinary. We didn’t do anything in the firm. We didn’t slash costs. We didn’t make anyone redundant.

What about your bottom line?

The partners essentially said, “Even if there are no profits to share that’s okayfor a period of time because this is all about having a decent business in the long run.” It’s about doing the right thing for your staff as well. It’s about that long view. What are you going to do? Fire everyone to cut costs and hire them back 18 months later when you get busy again? I mean, it just doesn’t make sense.

Predictions?

The stock market will show volatility as it does. That’s just people putting a short term price on companies in the stock market. Our view would be — while in no way is this something that we should be dismissive of or not take seriously — that this too will pass.

It always does.

We’ve had SARS, we’ve had flu epidemics. We’ve had 9/11. You name it. You look back at all of these cataclysmic events and with the benefit of 10 years of hindsight, the world keeps going and great companies keep making progress.

Best advice for now?

Compel yourself to not look at what the markets are doing. That’s nearly impossible. And I’ll confess to you, I think I flipped up Bloomberg yesterday just to see if things are going up or down. If you can’t control your impulses, don’t look. If you can control your impulses, by all means look. But don’t do anything.

So Plan A is…


Tyler Durden

Mon, 03/16/2020 – 15:45

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2w3rQFT Tyler Durden

$1.4 Billion In Sporting Event Tickets May Have Just Went “Poof!”

$1.4 Billion In Sporting Event Tickets May Have Just Went “Poof!”

The shock and fallout from the coronavirus has been no more noticeable in many American households than with the suspension of major sporting events. 

But the shock isn’t just on TV. The secondary market for ticket holders has also collapsed, with a total of $1.4 billion worth of tickets now “up in the air”, according to Bloomberg

The $1.4 billion number doesn’t even include the NHL or NBA playoffs (which would be taking place in upcoming months) and is indicative of a small sliver of money that could be lost as a result of the global coronavirus outbreak. 

The Los Angeles Lakers alone, for example, have $82.1 million in tickets tied to finishing the rest of the regular season. The Toronto Maple Leafs have $42.2 million.

Over the last week, almost all major sporting leagues have suspended events, led by the NBA who abruptly cancelled a Utah Jazz vs. Oklahoma Thunder game last week, before shortly announcing that the rest of the league would be suspended. The Utah’s Jazz’s Rudy Gobert tested positive for the novel coronavirus, it was revealed the next day.

Executives at the NHL and NBA have said they intend on completing the season, but there’s no timeline for doing so as of yet. 

TicketIQ said they would refund any ticket sold on their site for events that have been canceled. For games that have been “postponed”, the site says it is waiting to hear from the league. 


Tyler Durden

Mon, 03/16/2020 – 15:30

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/33oTRUr Tyler Durden

Watch Live: White House Task Force Delivers Latest Update On Outbreak Response

Watch Live: White House Task Force Delivers Latest Update On Outbreak Response

After insisting on Sunday that millions of test kits would soon become available and that up to 2,000 public and private labs would be ready to run them would be online by the end of the week, the White House coronavirus task force will deliver another live update at 3:15pm ET, following the conclusion of its latest team meeting (the presser was initially slated to be held at 10:30, but was delayed to 3:30, and now brought forward to 3:15).

For some context around today’s comments, here are the president’s comments over the last few weeks…

1/22  “. . . we have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China, and we have it under control. It’s going to be just fine.”

1/24  “It will all work out well.

1/28  “Johnson & Johnson to create coronavirus vaccine.

1/30  “We have it very well under control. We have very little problem in this country at this moment — five. And those people are all recuperating successfully.

2/10  “Looks like by April, you know, in theory, when it gets a little warmer, it miraculously goes away,”

2/19  “I think the numbers are going to get progressively better as we go along.”

2/26  “the Democrat policy of open borders” had brought the virus into the country.

2/27  “It’s going to disappear. One day — it’s like a miracle — it will disappear.”

2/29  vaccine would be available “very quickly” and “very rapidly”

3/2  “It’s very mild

3/6  “Anybody that wants a test can get a test.”

3/6   “People are surprised that I understand it. Every one of these doctors said, ‘How do you know so much about this?’ Maybe I have a natural ability.”

3/7  “I’m not concerned at all.”

3/10 “It will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away.”

And, yesterday, President Trump said that the government had the outbreak “under control”, provoking a backlash in the press, who once again hammered him for allegedly mischaracterizing the state of the government response (most infectious disease experts insist that the outbreak in the US is very much not ‘contained’).

Watch Live below:

After the Fed’s big bazooka blast last night seemed to only provoke a panic in markets, let’s see if Trump, Pence & Co. can sooth the market, as we suspect millions of parents and students who are staying home might watch if for no other reason than sheer boredom.


Tyler Durden

Mon, 03/16/2020 – 15:09

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2xLXCaV Tyler Durden

Platts: 7 Commodity Charts To Watch This Week

Platts: 7 Commodity Charts To Watch This Week

Via S&P Platts Global Insight blog,

The coronavirus pandemic continues to play havoc with commodity markets, but while many products have been pummeled by the weak demand outlook and the eruption of an oil price war, others are proving more resilient. S&P Global Platts news and pricing editors sort the bullish from the bearish in raw materials and energy markets.

1. VLCC rates spike on Saudi crude deluge, floating storage demand

What’s happening? Asian VLCCs were hit hard by the coronavirus outbreak, with the benchmark Persian Gulf-China rate down by over 50% since the start of this year. This was due to a drop in crude purchases from China. But almost overnight, oil prices headed south towards the $30/b mark and Saudi Arabia decided to flood the market with crude. Saudi Arabia’s shipping company Bahri chartered more than a dozen VLCCs from the spot market and around three dozen VLCCs were chartered in the Persian Gulf in 24 hours, sending VLCC rates through the roof.

What’s next? As Saudi Arabia and Russia fight for market share, Riyadh has threatened to ramp up crude production to 12.3 million b/d by April. This will boost tanker demand, which is also seeing strong support from the floating storage market as traders take advantage of the wide contango in oil prices. Amid these factors, tanker rates will remain supported.

2. US forward gas prices lift despite plunging oil…

What’s happening? US benchmark natural gas prices for next winter’s peak-demand months of December, January and February have strengthened as much as 20 cents, or about 9%, over the past week as forwards markets respond to the recent fallout in oil prices. On March 10, the January 2021 contract edged up to $2.69/MMBtu, or its highest since mid-January. The move suggests that traders anticipate a slowdown in oil and liquids drilling this year, which could be sufficient to lower US production of associated gas and trim next winter’s inventory levels.

What’s next? According to S&P Global Platts Analytics, US associated gas production is likely to remain flat this year, even amid a slowdown in oil and liquids drilling. Stickiness in associated gas production is attributable to various factors, but stems primarily from the production profile of the typical unconventional well, which tends to yield a higher gas-to-oil output ratio over time. In a worst-case scenario, Platts Analytics expects that sustained oil prices around $30/b could see total US gas production decline modestly through December, falling some 400 MMcf/d to 800 MMcf/d from its current level around 91.2 Bcf/d.

3. …and LNG spot and long-term prices diverge

What’s happening? Over 70% of LNG is sold on fixed long-term contracts where cargoes are priced on the basis of oil. These oil-indexed LNG contracts have been expensive for Asian buyers due to high oil prices, compared to spot LNG prices according to the Platts JKM price assessment. But this week, the oil price crash closed the gap between oil-indexed and spot LNG prices, with major implications for current and future LNG markets.

What’s next? The convergence of spot and long-term LNG prices will depend on how long oil prices stay low and the lag between the oil price decline and LNG cargo pricing. A prolonged  period of low oil means Asian buyers will benefit and gas exporters like Qatar, Australia and Malaysia will feel the pain. It will also trickle into contract negotiations, new supply deals and even has the potential to make gas more competitive in the long run.

4. China steel inventories mount as industries languish…

What’s Happening? Finished steel inventories held by traders always rise around the Lunar New Year as economic activity slows over the week long national holiday. Inventories typically peak and start to draw down around two weeks after new year as workers return to the cities and China’s factories and building sites return to life. This year the coronavirus outbreak has disrupted this cycle. Four weeks after the start of the new year inventories are still rising as end user demand remains weak. Only around 45% of China’s small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) had resumed work by early March according to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT).

What’s Next? Inventories should peak and start to draw down over the next few weeks as mills cut production to balance supply and demand. A sharper than expected drawdown will be evidence of a stronger than expected rebound in demand.

5. …but iron ore, met coal resist downward pressure so far

What’s happening? Iron ore and coking coal prices have seen little change in the past two weeks despite a sharp slide in oil and global equity markets. Global iron ore demand is led by China, which relies mainly on imports of the product for its steelmaking. China is trying to keep steel production up as the economy recovers from the coronavirus outbreak, with forward steel demand supported by new stimulus measures. Iron ore supply in southern Brazil fell on heavier than usual rain this year, and cyclone activity disrupted loadings in Western Australia earlier. Coking coal prices are diverging falling thermal coal, with coking coal supply in Queensland affected by port suspensions recently on seasonal rain.

What’s next? China’s steel production increase in 2019 to almost 1 billion mt, and planned growth for 2020, are increasing demand for iron ore and coking coal imports. Chinese raw materials demand may see temporary swings should weak steel margins persist, and as high steel inventories draw down. Seaborne and Chinese raw material supply typically improves in the second half of the year, and any weakness to global steel demand from the coronavirus outbreak may mean suppliers rely more on Asian spot markets, and boost availability. Higher China domestic coking coal and coke prices than imports continue to support trade, as India expands steel production further and is reliant on imported met coal and coke.

6. Europe’s bloated gas stocks paint bearish picture for summer

What’s happening? With just over two weeks left of the traditional European gas storage withdrawal season, the level of fullness in EU stocks is well above anything seen in recent years. Storages across the EU are currently around 57% full, compared with 41% full this time last year and just 23% full in mid-March 2018 when stocks had been drawn down to record lows by the Beast from the East cold spell.

What’s next? The high level of stocks – built up to almost capacity last year on fears of disruption to Russian gas flows via Ukraine – points to the likelihood of limited injection demand through the summer season. With the global glut of LNG persisting, Europe will not find it so easy to absorb the surplus LNG through storage this summer, which could bring more price pressure amid already bearish European gas market conditions.

7. EU carbon prices show resilience amid market slump

What’s happening? EU carbon dioxide allowance prices have been pressured along with the wider slump in global equities last week, as carbon was caught up in a wider risk-off attitude among investors. However, compared with the meltdown in global stock markets, carbon prices have shown relative resilience, holding above Eur21.00/mt since April 2019. This was firstly because the price is buffered by the Market Stability Reserve, which automatically takes out surplus allowances by reducing government auction volumes the following year. Secondly, the EU is looking to bolster its carbon market, potentially widening it to new sectors, to help reach net-zero emissions by 2050.

What’s next? Coronavirus remains a major wildcard for carbon prices. Signs of a peak and early decline in the global spread of the virus would likely give a boost to equities and oil prices. Conversely, continuing outbreaks risk triggering further losses due to the risk of a more prolonged economic disruption, and related demand losses across the commodity spectrum including carbon. The markets will also be watching the UK. Following Brexit, Britain is set to legislate its own domestic carbon market and carbon tax policy March 19, ahead of leaving the EU ETS on December 31, 2020.


Tyler Durden

Mon, 03/16/2020 – 14:59

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2Qn5TIJ Tyler Durden

KFC Suspends Its “Finger Lickin’ Good” Slogan Amid Coronavirus Outbreak

KFC Suspends Its “Finger Lickin’ Good” Slogan Amid Coronavirus Outbreak

Yesterday, while reporting about PornHub making free porn available to Italians, we noted that during times of existential crisis, every last corporation has to pitch in and do their part. Cue Kentucky Fried Chicken.

KFC is stepping up to the plate and doing what it can to help the coronavirus outbreak, suspending its world famous “finger lickin’ good” slogan at a time when nobody should be advocating for licking their fingers.

The PR move appears to be a temporary suspension, according to company reps who told the New York Post that it “isn’t going anywhere” for the longer-term. We’ll see if that outlook changes at some point…

The CDC has widely recommended keeping your hands away from your face and mouth and washing your hands frequently to combat the spread of the virus. Obviously, this includes finger licking.

The UK’s Advertising Standards Authority (ASA) says that it got 163 complaints about the slogan amid the coronavirus outbreak, but that they didn’t have to act because KFC had already voluntarily suspended the slogan. 

“It doesn’t feel like the right time to be airing this campaign, so we’ve decided to pause it for now -– but we’re really proud of it and look forward to bringing it back at a later date,” a KFC spokesperson said.

Somebody make sure Mini-Mike gets the message, please.


Tyler Durden

Mon, 03/16/2020 – 14:45

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2WjQcWk Tyler Durden