Category: zerohedge

This is the part in Groundhog Day where Phil Connors kills himself again, and again, and again.

With stocks itching for a new excuse to levitate higher, they got that overnight when a Reuters report on fresh “progress” in the U.S.-China trade talks and renewed “optimism” in a trade deal helped propel world stock markets to a 6-month high on steered investors away from save havens such as the Japanese yen, even as 10Y treasury yields dipped modestly, as the same catalyst that has driven stocks higher on virtually every single day in the past quarter has continued to do so again and again, right out of the cult groundhog movie.

“It seems like bullish sentiment has decent grip for now and everyone is focused on the year to date performance of the equity markets,” said Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at TF Global Markets (UK) Ltd in London.

Overnight Reuters reported that US negotiators tempered demands that China curb industrial subsidies as a condition for a trade deal after strong resistance from Beijing, marking a retreat on a core U.S. objective for the trade talks. According to the report, in the push to secure a deal in the next month or so, U.S. negotiators have become resigned to securing less than they would like on curbing those subsidies and are focused instead on other areas where they consider demands are more achievable, Reuters sources said. Those include ending forced technology transfers, improving intellectual property protection and widening access to China’s markets, the sources said. China has already given ground on those issues.

“It’s not that there won’t be some language on it, but it is not going to be very detailed or specific,” one source familiar with the talks said in reference to the subsidies issue.

Separately, on Saturday during the latest IMF conclave, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said the US is “hopefully very close” to final round of China talks; adding that the U.S. is open to facing enforcement penalties which work “in both directions.” all of which helped spawn a fresh sense of optimism that a deal announcement was imminent.

In addition to the new trade optimism, thanks to the pleasant aftertaste from China’s credit flood in March, which exceeded all estimates, concern over global growth has also eased, fueling demand for riskier assets. MSCI’s gauge for equities saw its 100-day moving average rise above the 200-day equivalent as the index rose 12 out of the past 13 days, signaling potential for further gains.

Following a muted Asian session, the European Stoxx 600 Index erased an earlier loss and extended gains to session highs with bank stocks contributing most to the increase. A gauge tracking lenders climbs for a third session as it holds above a barrier it breached last week. The European index advances 0.3% as of 11:30 a.m. in London, reversing a decline of as much as 0.1% earlier. BNP Paribas rose 2.5%, adding the most to the increase by index points. Other banks also stronger: Credit Suisse +2.2%; ING Groep +1.3%, Unicredit +2.2%

S&P500 futures nudged up after spending most of the session in the red, as results from Goldman Sachs and Citigroup loomed. In Asia, equities headed for a fresh six-month high, propelled by markets in Japan and Korea, after the Bank of China released upbeat credit data, although earlier, Chinese stocks closed in the red, fading initial trade-related gains as expectations for rate cuts fizzled following the latest credit deluge.

With Chinese trade and lending data showing signs of improvement for the world’s second-biggest economy, investors are turning to the US earnings season to confirm the resilience of corporate America in the face of numerous challenges to growth. JPMorgan Chase posted strong first-quarter results last week, Goldman and Citi report today and Bank of America is up on Tuesday.

“The environment of easier financial conditions is beginning to have an impact on the broader economy,” Principal Global’s Binay Chandgothia told Bloomberg TV. “If that is the case and growth does pick up, you’ll see an uptick in analyst expectations and earnings as well, which should help continue the rally.”

Bunds, US Treausrys and Gilts were confined to very tight ranges, as BTPs trade in a choppier range with peripheral yield spreads widening to core at the margin. G-10 currencies drift sideways in quiet trade, SEK marginally outperforms peers, CAD and NOK lag on commodities weakness.

In FX, South Korea’s won led an advance among emerging-market currencies, while Turkey’s lira underperformed as the unemployment rate climbed to the highest level in a decade. G-10 currencies drifted sideways in quiet trade, with the SEK marginally outperforming peers, CAD and NOK lag on commodities weakness. The yen dropped toward its 2019 low on Monday and the Swiss franc hit its weakest in nearly a month. The dollar also weakened slightly, allowing the euro to cement gains above $1.13.

In commodities, oil slipped after the longest run of weekly gains in three years as a report showed increased U.S. oil-rig activity. Oil provided big milestones last week, with Brent breaking through the $70 threshold and the U.S. benchmark posting six straight weeks of gains for the first time since early 2016. Brent crude oil futures was last off 23 cents at $71.32 while crude futures, the U.S. benchmark, eased 33 cents to $63.56.

Expected data include Empire State Manufacturing Survey. Schwab, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs are reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures little changed at 2,912.00
• STOXX Europe 600 up 0.01% to 387.56
• MXAP up 0.6% to 163.25
• MXAPJ up 0.1% to 543.51
• Nikkei up 1.4% to 22,169.11
• Topix up 1.4% to 1,627.93
• Hang Seng Index down 0.3% to 29,810.72
• Shanghai Composite down 0.3% to 3,177.79
• Sensex up 0.3% to 38,897.72
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 unchanged at 6,251.44
• Kospi up 0.4% to 2,242.88
• German 10Y yield rose 0.5 bps to 0.06%
• Euro up 0.2% to $1.1319
• Italian 10Y yield rose 15.4 bps to 2.171%
• Spanish 10Y yield rose 1.5 bps to 1.064%
• Brent futures down 0.7% to $71.04/bbl
• Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,286.95
• U.S. Dollar Index down 0.2% to 96.80

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

• The release of the almost 400-page Special Counsel Robert Mueller report this week could help President Trump put two years of suspicion and risk from the investigation behind him — or ensure that controversy over the Russia probe hangs over his re-election bid.
• Trump, renewing his attack on the Federal Reserve, claimed the stock market would be “5000 to 10,000” points higher had it not been for the actions of the U.S. central bank. “Quantitative tightening was a killer, should have done the exact opposite!” he tweeted.
• Job vacancies in London’s finance industry have halved in two years as uncertainty over Brexit knocks down business confidence, a survey by recruiter Morgan McKinley has found.
• The mass production of iPhones will shift to India this year from China, Foxconn Technology Group Chairman Terry Gou said. The company is the largest assembler of Apple Inc.’s handsets and has long concentrated on China.
• Finland looks set to get a more left-leaning government as voters rejected years of austerity in the tightest election in over half a century. Former trade unionist Antti Rinne is poised to become Finland’s first Social Democrat prime minister in 16 years, winning by fewer than 7,000 votes.

Asian equity markets began the week mostly positive as the region took impetus from last Friday’s gains on Wall St. where sentiment was underpinned by a strong start to earnings season and encouraging Chinese data. Nonetheless, ASX 200 (U/C) was dampened amid tentativeness ahead of key earnings and underperformance in gold miners, as well as trade-related news including a further decline of Chinese imports and dispute at the WTO on Australia’s restriction on Chinese 5G technology. The rest of the major Asia-Pac indices are mixed as recent advances in USD/JPY fuelled the upside in Nikkei 225 (+1.4%), while Hang Seng (-0.3%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.3%) finished lower but were initially boosted as most of the recent Chinese data surpassed estimates including New Yuan Loans, Aggregate Financing, Trade Balance and Exports with the latter at a 5-month high. Furthermore, reports the US softened its demands on China for reducing state industrial subsidies and that both sides have agreed to measures to avoid China currency manipulation, added to the hopes for a looming trade deal. Finally, 10yr JGBs were softer as they tracked the recent losses in T-notes and with demand also dampened by gains in riskier assets as well as a lack of BoJ presence in the market today.

Top Asian News

• The $18 Billion Electric-Car Bubble at Risk of Bursting in China
• Turkey Bleeds Jobs as Unemployment Climbs to Highest in a Decade
• Economist Snatched at Night, Questioned for ‘Insulting’ Erdogan
• Jack Ma Again Endorses Extreme Overtime as Furor Rages On

A tepid start to the week for European equities thus far (Eurostoxx 50 Unch) after the optimism seen in Asia somewhat waned, although Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed higher by almost 1.5% amid currency tailwind. In Europe, Italy’s FTSE MIB (+0.5%) bodes well as the bourse hit eight-month highs, bolstered by banking names amidst the optimism surrounding US banks’ earnings (ahead of Goldman Sachs and Citigroup earnings today). As such the banking sector in Europe outperforms (Stoxx 600 Banks +0.9%) whilst its peers remain mixed. In terms of individual movers, France’s Publicis Groupe (+3.2%) leads the gains in the CAC 40 (+0.1%) on the back of an optimistic revenue update, whilst also supporting its UK peer WPP (+1.3%) in tandem. Elsewhere, Covestro (-4.2%) is the marked laggard in the DAX (Unch) amid ex-dividend trade. Finally, IWG (+22.4%) rests at the top of the Stoxx 600 [Unch] after reports that Japan’s TKP are to acquire the Co.’s workspace leading unit for JPY 50bln coupled with a broker upgrade.

Top European News

• Trafigura to Take Control of Europe’s Biggest Zinc Smelter
• Finns Eject Austerity Government as Leftists Win Election
• Draghi Sticks to Cautious Optimism About Euro-Area Bounceback
• SNB to Raise Rate at Start of 2020, Same Time as ECB, UBS Says

In FX, the Sterling remains underpinned and relatively optimistic after another Article 50 extension to avoid a no deal Brexit and amidst reports that talks between the Conservative and Labour Parties have been more detailed and constructive than some expected, per UK Foreign Secretary Hunt. Cable is eyeing 1.3100 again, albeit with a hefty helping hand from a broadly soft Dollar, as Eur/Gbp trades largely sideways within a 0.8633-50 range. Technically, 1.3132 (last Friday’s high) forms nearest resistance, but data could become pivotal as the week unfolds given jobs and earnings on tap tomorrow, then CPI on Wednesday and retail sales ahead of the long Easter break.

• EUR – As noted above, the single currency is also firm and outperforming the Greenback as the DXY slips a bit further below 97.000 to just under 96.800. Eur/Usd is inching towards 1.1300+ upside chart levels, like a 50% Fib circa 1.1324 and the 200 WMA around 1.1341. Note also, 2 banks are long of the headline pair and looking for sizeable rallies to 1.1650 and even 1.1800.
• NZD/AUD/JPY/CHF/CAD – All narrowly mixed vs the Usd with the Kiwi and Aussie both deriving some support from reports overnight suggesting the US has relaxed some demands over Chinese industrial subsidies in ongoing trade negotiations, as Nzd/Usd hovers between 0.6763-82 and Aud/Usd in a 0.7164-80 range. However, Usd/Jpy has not advanced as much as risk-on sentiment might have suggested overnight with the pair fading just shy of the 2019 peak (112.14) amidst supply from Japanese exporters according to market contacts and now revisiting the 200 WMA (111.98). Meanwhile, the Franc is sitting tight within 1.0010-28 parameters and Loonie between 1.3320-47 ahead of the BoC’s Business Outlook Survey and against the backdrop of softer oil prices that are also undermining the NOK (sub-9.6100 vs the Eur as SEK holds above 10.4700).
• EM – The Try has been hit hard again and got closer to recent lows vs the Usd in wake of latest Turkish jobs data revealing a spike in the rolling 3 month average unemployment rate to 14.7% vs 13.5% previously. The Lira has nursed some losses since on the aforementioned Buck weakness, but remains on the backfoot in a 5.7600-8115 band in stark contrast to the Rand that has extended gains through 14.0000 even though one institution is anticipating a reversal in the Zar’s fortunes and rebound to 14.2700.

In commodities, there has been subdued trade in the energy complex as WTI (-0.8%) and Brent (-0.8%) futures gave up some of Friday’s gains, with the latter now straddling around the psychological USD 71.00/bbl level. Friday’s CFTC data showed that hedge funds raise bullish ICE WTI crude bets by 30.7k to 281.7k lots, whilst speculators increased net long positions in Brent crude (for a fifth consecutive week) by almost 9.5k to just over 358k in the week to April 9th. Over the weekend, Russia’s Finance Minister stated that OPEC+ could decide to raise production (at the June 25/26 meeting) to fight for market share with the US. Currently OPEC+ have agreed to curb output by 1.2mln BPD until June 2019, with IFX noting that Russia’s April production fell by 150k BPD vs the benchmark October level. Back in December, Russia committed to reducing output by 228k BPD from October levels of 11.4mln BPD in a gradual manner which would take place over several months. Elsewhere, the precious metals sector is mostly in the red with gold (-0.4%) edging lower and breaching its 100 DMA (USD 1288/oz) to the downside as last week’s Chinese data somewhat eases fears of a global growth slowdown. Meanwhile, copper (-0.3%) gave up its overnight gains as the risk sentiment became more cautious during early EU trade. Finally, Shanghai steel futures hit a seven-and-a-half year high as the alloy is supported by firm demand, whilst its base metal, Dalian iron ore futures remained near record highs on dwindling Chinese stockpiles which declined the most since 2015, according to SteelHome data.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30am: Empire Manufacturing, est. 8, prior 3.7
• 4pm: Net Long- term TIC Flows, prior $7.2b deficit
• 4pm: Total Net TIC Flows, prior $143.7b deficit

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Right. I’m writing this only an hour or so after the first episode of the final Game Of Thrones season had its global premier and am selectively looking through my normal newsfeeds very nervous that I’m going to see spoilers. So if I’ve missed anything today that’s my excuse. I’m not going to watch it until we move into our new house immediately after Easter so I will unleash my dragons to anyone that tells me what happens. Someone important is bound to have died already so that’s going to be tough to avoid if true!! Rather aptly the most difficult spoiler I’ve ever had to avoid was 30 years ago this week around the Masters. In my Easter school holidays I had a paper round and had to be up at 4.30am. As such I had to go to bed early and video tape my hero Nick Faldo’s attempt at the Masters with the view of watching it when I’d finished. Obviously all the papers had the result on the back page (he won). So I had to deliver them all with my eyes closed. I remember it well and the great difficulty involved. The locals must have thought me very odd. The modern equivalent will be me closing my eyes every time I open the internet for the next 10 days. Staying with the Masters, I did find it emotional to see a remarkable comeback victory for Tiger Woods yesterday. Our careers have moved in parallel. He’s a year younger than me, has had 4 knee surgeries to my 3 and 4 back operations while I’ve had several injections in the spine. The only real difference is 15 major championships. But has he ever won an II analyst award? Anyway, nice to see that 40-somethings still have a place in the world.

It might be Easter holiday from Friday but we should know a bit more about the global economy before we go away. The continuation of our tactically bullish view relies a lot on China data bouncing back and dragging Europe along with it. Well on Wednesday we see the important monthly data dump with the release of March’s industrial production and retail sales data and also Q1 Chinese GDP. March’s data will be especially important in assessing whether the recent tick up in PMIs were a genuine positive signal or not. Last Friday’s bumper credit numbers (more later) reinforces our view that China is going through another mini credit cycle. Indeed our Chinese economists put out a note yesterday ( link here ) suggesting that there is upside to their 2019 forecasts. They’ll update these after Wednesday’s numbers.

The other main highlight will be the flash April PMIs on Thursday, with releases for the Eurozone, Germany, France and the United States. It’ll be particularly interesting to see the manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone, which fell for an eighth consecutive month in March, moving deeper into contractionary territory with a 47.5 reading. The German manufacturing PMI was even more contractionary last month, with a 44.1 reading. If we’re right on China these should be turning up soon.

In a similar vein, Germany’s ZEW survey for April comes out on Tuesday, which is an important number in light of the above. In March, the ZEW survey of current activity fell to 11.1, its lowest level since December 2014, although the expectation reading rose to -3.6, which was its highest since March 2018, so it’ll be worth looking to see if there are any signs of improvements here.

The main other highlights are US Retail Sales (Thursday) and Q1 US earnings season picking up through the week. Retail Sales will be looked at for signs the consumption soft patch either side of the turn of the year is behind us. In terms of earnings today we’ll see Goldman Sachs and Citigroup reporting. Tomorrow there’ll be earning releases from Bank of America, Netflix, IBM and Johnson & Johnson. On Wednesday, there’ll be Morgan Stanley and PepsiCo, and on Thursday, there’ll be Philip Morris International and American Express. The day by day week ahead is at the end.

Over the weekend, the US President Trump renewed his criticism of the Fed by tweeting, “If the Fed had done its job properly, which it has not, the Stock Market would have been up 5000 to 10,000 additional points.” I can only assume he means the Dow rather than the S&P 500! He further added, “Quantitative tightening was a killer, should have done the exact opposite!” President Trump’s comments came after the IMF conference in Washington where ECB President Draghi said that he was “certainly worried about central bank independence” and especially “in the most important jurisdiction in the world.” Elsewhere, at the same IMF conference Germany came under pressure from global policy makers to ease fiscal policy.

Meanwhile, on US/China trade talks, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that the US and China are discussing whether to hold more in-person meetings after talks in recent weeks while adding that “we’re hopefully getting very close to the final round of these issues.” He also said on the enforcement mechanism that, “I would expect that the enforcement mechanism works in both directions, that we expect to honor our commitments, and if we don’t, there should be certain repercussions, and the same way in the other direction.”

Asian markets have started the week on a positive note with the Nikkei (+1.47%), Hang Seng (+0.58%), Shanghai Comp (+1.12%) and Kospi (+0.49%) all up. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are trading flattish (-0.04%).

In other news, Finland will likely get a more left-leaning government after voters, in the tightest election in memory, rejected years of austerity and seemingly demanded more spending on welfare. Former trade unionist Antti Rinne is poised to become Finland’s first Social Democrat prime minister in 16 years after winning by fewer than 7,000 votes but his party faces tough coalition talks ahead as the ultra nationalist Finns Party emerged as the second-biggest party, beating the establishment conservative National Coalition for the first time.

On Brexit, David Lidington, PM May’s de facto deputy, said on Sunday that the government believed it would be possible to get “the benefits of a customs union” – which Labour wants – “but still have a flexibility for the U.K. to pursue an independent trade policy on top of that.” He added that even though parliament is in recess until April 23, negotiations will continue. Sterling is up +0.18% this morning.

Recapping last Friday and the week overall now. Equity markets advanced on Friday with the S&P 500 +0.66% (+0.51% for the week), the NASDAQ +0.46% (+0.57%) and the STOXX 600 +0.16% (-0.18%). This was the third consecutive weekly gain for the S&P 500, which closed at its highest level for six months. Financials led the advance following strong earnings from JPMorgan, which reported net income of $9.2bn in the first quarter, sending its shares up +4.69% on Friday. They also reported net interest income of $14.6bn in the first quarter, up 8% on the same quarter a year ago, while return on common equity reached 16%. Impressive numbers. The STOXX Banks index ended the day +2.78% (+3.05% – week) to reach its highest level since October (also helped by the China data and rising bund yields). The S&P 500 Banks index was also up +2.40% (+2.39%).

The market was also supported by stronger-than-expected data releases. Firstly, we had the credit numbers out of China where new total social financing came in at RMB2.86tr, much stronger than the market consensus forecast of RMB1.85tr. New bank loans also surprised on the upside at RMB1.69tr compared with consensus of RMB1.25tr. M2 (broad money) growth rebounded to 8.6% in March from 8.0% in Feb but the most significant part, according to our economists, was the rebound in M1, whose growth rate jumped to 4.6% in March, up more than 4ppts from its trough at 0.4% in Jan. Again see their report mentioned earlier for more.

The Chinese trade data was also positive, with the March trade balance coming in at $32.65bn (vs. $5.70bn expected) indicating that exports had recovered. In Europe, the Eurozone industrial production figures fell by -0.2% mom in February but above the -0.5% decline expected, while January’s figure was revised up to 1.9% mom (from 1.4% previously). However, in the US the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell more than expected, coming in at 96.9 (vs. 98.2 expected).

Government bond yields rose as the global data was generally pretty positive, with ten-year bund yields +6.4bps on Friday (+4.9bps on the week) to return to positive territory (0.054%). 10yr Treasury yields rose +6.8bps on Friday (+7.0bps – week), and the US 2s10s curve steepened to end the day +2.9bps (+1.8bps). Bond yields in the European periphery came off their recent lows with the rise in yields but spreads edged tighter. In Greece though, ten-year yields fell to their lowest level since September 2005.

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2KAOZph Tyler Durden

Ironically, while Europe has led the US in holding Silicon Valley tech firms accountable for anti-trust and data privacy violations, the shoe has been on the other foot when it comes to Diesel-gate – revelations that German automaker Volkswagen installed defeat devices in its diesel cars to help them cheat American emissions inspections.

After the US charged former Volkswagen CEO Martin Winterkorn with fraud, conspiracy and violations of the Clean Air Act last spring, Braunschweig public prosecutors revealed Monday that they were charging Winterkorn and four other executives with serious fraud and violations of competition law, BBG reported.

VW has had to recall hundreds of thousands of cars around the world since the company admitted in 2015 that it installed the illegal software in its diesel engines to cheat anti-emissions tests.

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2UfDEe9 Tyler Durden

In the latest indication of how the financial burden of the 737 MAX’s troubles will ultimately be borne by Boeing’s airline customers, American Airlines announced on Sunday that it would cancel all flights with Boeing 737 MAX 8 planes through Aug. 19, the longest stretch of cancellations announced by a US airline since regulators around the world grounded the planes following the March 10 crash of ET302. The cancellations will amount to 115 flights per day –  about 1.5% of American’s total during each day of the summer travel season.

The airline had previously cancelled flights through early June. AA’s decision to extend cancellations follows United’s decision to cancel all MAX flights through June 5, and Southwest canceled them through Aug. 5. The cancellations are expected to severely hamper travel during the busy summer season, when families typically take vacations.

Read the full statement from American’s Chairman and CEO Doug Parker and President Robert Isom:

Dear fellow team members,

As we prepare for summer, our focus is around planning for the busiest travel period of the year. Families everywhere are counting on American Airlines for their summer vacations, family reunions, trips to visit friends and adventures overseas. Our commitment to each other and to our customers is to operate the safest and most reliable operation in our history.

To further that mission, we have made the decision to extend our cancellations for the Boeing 737 MAX aircraft through Aug. 19. Based upon our ongoing work with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and Boeing, we are highly confident that the MAX will be recertified prior to this time. But by extending our cancellations through the summer, we can plan more reliably for the peak travel season and provide confidence to our customers and team members when it comes to their travel plans. Once the MAX is recertified, we anticipate bringing our MAX aircraft back on line as spares to supplement our operation as needed during the summer.

The planning team is working on this action now and in total, approximately 115 flights per day will be canceled through Aug. 19. These 115 flights represent approximately 1.5 percent of American’s total flying each day this summer.

We remain confident that the impending software updates, along with the new training elements Boeing is developing for the MAX, will lead to recertification of the aircraft soon. We have been in continuous contact with the FAA, Department of Transportation (DOT), National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), other regulatory authorities and are pleased with the progress so far.

Our Reservations and Sales teams will continue to work closely with customers to manage their travel plans, and we appreciate their outstanding efforts to care for our customers. Your professionalism and care for customers is second to none, and we thank you for all you do every day for our customers and for each other.

AA said customers would have the option of rebooking their flights or receiving a refund. The airline said it might try to find other planes to fill in for 737 MAXs on certain scheduled flghts.

The FAA is still investigating the two deadly crashes, and it recently met with representatives from American, Southwest, United and their pilot unions to discuss the plane’s safety questions. Boeing said last week that it had completed 96 test flights of the 737 MAX with its software update.

Stiil, even after Boeing has managed to convince regulators that its planes are safe, there’s still the open question of whether the public will feel comfortable flying on the planes. It’s unclear how the company plans to deal with this problem, but President Trump on Monday morning tweeted one idea.

Conceding “what the hell do I know” about branding (despite previously running an airline and, of course, going from presidential long shot to clinch a historic, come-from-behind victory in the 2016 election), Trump said if it were up to him he would “rebrand” the Boeing 737 MAX 8 and “add some great features” to win back the public trust.

“No product has suffered like this one.”

What do I know about branding, maybe nothing (but I did become President!), but if I were Boeing, I would FIX the Boeing 737 MAX, add some additional great features, & REBRAND the plane with a new name.
No product has suffered like this one. But again, what the hell do I know?

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 15, 2019

We’ll see if Boeing takes that suggestion to heart.

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2ZdzkzG Tyler Durden

Even those who have never played as stroke of golf probably understand that Tiger Woods’ historic Masters’ win on Sunday was a big moment – not just for a professional athlete who triumphed over a decade of scandal and adversity, but for America, a country that was built on the kind of grit and dedication displayed by Woods while capturing his fifth Masters’ title, his first in more than a decade. At 43, he became the second-oldest person to win the tournament after Jack Nicklaus, who won the tournament in 1986 at age 46.

Unfortunately, some couldn’t share in the excitement.

While Tiger’s victory was a huge moment for fans, for sportsbooks in New Jersey and Nevada, the losses generated by Woods’ come-from-behind win amounted to seven figures. Sports super-book FanDuel Group said it lost $2 million on the victory.

Another book, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, lost nearly $100,000, its worst-ever showing for the Masters. A trader at William Hill US said the company’s book lost “seven figures,” according to Bloomberg.

“It’s great to see Tiger back,” said Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading at William Hill U.S. “It’s a painful day for William Hill – our biggest golf loss ever – but a great day for golf.”

However, Sunday’s losses won’t even begin to counterbalance the profits amassed during Woods’s decade in the doghouse, where he remained a favorite of the betting public despite repeatedly disappointing on the course. It wasn’t uncommon for Woods to be the betting favorite, despite the long odds.

“We are still doing well overall with wagers involving Tiger,” Jeff Sherman, vice president of risk at Westgate SuperBook, said in an email.

That dynamic played out again on Sunday, when 21% of bets on FanDuel’s platform were for Woods to win it all, a total that led to a net loss of $1 million.  On top of that, the company ran a promotion where it promised to refund all bets if Woods won the tournament. That cost it another $1 million.

At William Hill, a Nevada resident placed a $85,000 bet on Woods to win it all paid out $1.2 million on 14-to-1 odds, the largest single-ticket payout in the casino’s history, according to CBS News.

The bet was so large that William Hill’s staff had to reach out to the bettor to verify the ticket, and that the bettor wasn’t off by a digit or two.

The wager was so large that it single-handedly pushed Woods to 10-to-1 odds at William Hill.

Not all sports books reported losses on Tiger’s win, with at least one telling BBG that it broke even.

Not all sports books took a loss. MGM Resorts Internationalbroke even on the event, according to Jay Rood, its vice president of race and sports. MGM had its biggest handle ever for a golf tournament.

“We were a small loser to Tiger before the start but were able to fade it over the course of the tournament,” Rood said.

Tiger’s win forced sports betting organizations to reevaluate odds related to his career. FanDuel is now giving him 5-to-1 odds of tying Jack Nicklaus’s record of 18 major tournament wins.

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2DdLX4v Tyler Durden

Authored by Jon LeSage via Oilprice.com,

Electric car battery sales are projected to hit $60 billion by 2030, and Germany wants to grab the lead.

That will be a tall wall to climb, with Chinese, Korean, and Japanese firms dominating the space so far.

In November, the German government announced a €1 billion ($1.12 billion) fund for German companies to develop and build battery cells. It’s part of the country’s “National Industrial Strategy 2030,” unveiled in February, which voices concern that Asian battery makers will dominate electric vehicles and autonomous driving of the future.

Companies were assigned to express interest in tapping into the battery research and development fund by mid-March. They have until April 21 to submit their applications, and so far, about 30 projects have been submitted. Applicants include automakers, parts suppliers, and chemical companies

Chinese firms dominate the market for now, led by Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Limited (CATL) and Build Your Dreams (BYD), whose rise was fostered by state subsidies for Chinese electric carmakers. China is expected to control 70% of the market in the next two years.

Japanese conglomerate Panasonic has held its own share of the market, with Tesla and Toyota as clients. Korean firms LG Chem and Samsung SDI also play a leading role in the EV battery market.

One German critic thinks that the government R&D fund is in the wrong place with its focus on battery cells and its manufacturing process. He thinks the money should be going to the main battery components: cathodes and anodes.

“The production value of the cell is about 15%. Sixty percent is just in the materials of cathode, and another 20% is the materials of anodes,” said Ferdinand Dudenhöffer, professor of automotive economics at the University of Duisberg-Essen and a veteran of automakers such as Opel and Porsche.

“The value does not exist in the manufacturing process in which they want to spend €1 billion ($1.13 billion). The value is in the materials.”

“It’s stupid,” he said. “It’s crazy, what our ministry of economics is doing.”

Germany’s BASF, one of the world’s largest chemical companies, might agree with that statement. The company is building a cathode materials factory in Finland, in cooperation with Russian miner Nornickel.

The German supplier does agree with the purpose of the government’s program. A BASF company spokesperson said that it has much to do with supporting large-scale production back home in Europe, rather than having to be dependent on imported cell supplies.

German automakers have been exploring the question of whether or not to manufacture their own EV batteries for years. Along with being Tesla-competitive, Volkswagen, Daimler, and BMW have made major commitments to bringing EVs to market and have explored the possibility of building their own battery packs.

German auto parts giant Bosch had explored entering the market. After determining building a battery plant would cost about €20 billion ($22.6 billion), the German conglomerate dropped the plan last year, saying that the risk was too high for the size of the needed investment.

China’s BYD would like to solve one of the chief problems around keeping its dominant role in electric car sales and battery packs  — tapping into enough nickel metal. Securing enough nickel is a major worry for EV makers, a BYD executive said earlier this month. The company would welcome joint ventures that help guarantee supply.

China has benefitted greatly from controlling about half of the world’s lithium production. But nickel has been just as important as lithium, maybe even more so. Nickel sulfate powder is a critical ingredient in the cathode formulation for lithium-ion batteries. Analysts expect to see a boom in demand as EV sales continue to increase.

“The supply of nickel going forward is a big concern in everybody’s mind,” said Coco Liu, procurement director at BYD.

Analysts have warned that the market would be short of nickel if Chinese-led projects in Indonesia fail to deliver.

BYD says the JV would present a rich opportunity for a partner companies in supplying the whole EV value chain — from upstream mining to battery materials and finished products.

Joint ventures are “a good way to go forward” and can save costs, Liu said.

Some companies would disagree with the JV proposal, and see it as a way for China to maintain control over its manufacturing sector.

The Chinese government is starting to loosen up on those rigid constraints with electric carmaker Tesla recently winning the first rights to establish its own plant. That “gigafactory” is coming together in Shanghai, one of China’s available free-trade zones announced last year.

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2UlB3iV Tyler Durden

Convinced that Mark Zuckerberg doesn’t quite yet have enough user data, Austria is now considering a new law that would require large internet platforms like Facebook, Instagram and Twitter to register their users, effectively banning anonymity on social media sites. The new law would be targeted at depriving “those behind hate posts of anonymity,” according to The Local. 

Chancellor Sebastian Kurz said: “Unfortunately there have been an increasing number of clear violations, denigrations and humiliations online in the past under the cover of anonymity. That’s why we need a framework for more responsibility online.”

But isn’t the anonymous denigration and humiliation of others a founding principle of the internet, and part of what makes it great?

The law, if passed, would go into effect in 2020 and would make it mandatory for users of popular social media sites to register their users. The platforms would have flexibility on how they register their users, but Austria seeks to give its authorities access to a user’s identity in the event of “hate postings or on suspicion of other laws being broken”.

The report didn’t say what, exactly, qualified as a “hate posting”. 

Gernot Bluemel, minister in charge of EU affairs, art, culture and media said: “The online space should not be a space without laws.” He continued, saying that Austria aimed to set a precedent for other countries in the matter.

In Austria, the law would have to be approved by both MPs and the European Commission to ensure that it is in line with EU guidelines that stipulate that member states cannot regulate a platform provider more strictly than its country of origin. The law would only apply to internet platforms with a reach of more than 100,000 users or a turnover of more than 500,000 Euros in Austria. It would also apply to platforms that get more than 50,000 Euros in state aid. 

Opposition parties claim such a law would restrict online freedom and hand over even more data to giants like Facebook, whose track record with user privacy is spotty, to say the least. Earlier this year, French President Emmanuel Macron earlier this year caused controversy by suggesting a similar law. 

So next time you’re traveling through Austria and thinking about leaving that snarky comment on a YouTube video about the Green New Deal or new vegan steak recipes, think twice. 

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2IsSlrY Tyler Durden

Authored by Pablo Vivanco,

As he faces a major corruption probe, Ecuadorian President Lenin Moreno has met another demand from Washington by booting WikiLeaks journalist Julian Assange out of Ecuador’s embassy in London.

Times were different when the WikiLeaks founder walked into Ecuador’s London embassy seeking asylum in 2012.

Fearing that his native Australia wouldn’t protect him from extradition to the United States, where he faces imprisonment or even execution, Assange appealed to Ecuador’s then-president Rafael Correa to grant him refuge from “political persecution.”

Ecuador agreed, granting him asylum on the grounds that his “life, safety or personal integrity” could be compromised at any moment.

Having also kicked US troops off its soil just a few years earlier, the tiny South American nation’s gesture was applauded by many, including domestically.

Fast forward seven years, and Ecuador has now handed him over for almost certain extradition.

The country’s former consul general in London says the move is not only unwarranted but also illegal under international law.

“This is a violation of the right and the institution of asylum,” Fidel Narvaez told me.

Having been delivered to British authorities, the Ecuadorian diplomat says Assange will likely be extradited to the US where “he will surely be sentenced to dozens of years of prison, at the least.”

For Narvaez, who was among the Ecuadorian officials who received Assange in 2012, the move is part of a return to a “subservient” foreign policy by the Ecuadorian government under Lenin Moreno.

“The foreign policy of the Ecuadorian government changed dramatically and it is now completely subservient to foreign pressures, especially from the US and the IMF, as it always was before the Citizen’s Revolution,” Narvaez adds.

Despite having been elected on a platform of continuing the leftist and nationalist policies of Rafael Correa’s Citizen’s Revolution, Moreno has actively attacked Correa’s legacy as well as the governments that ascribed to ‘21st century socialism.’

In recent months, Moreno’s government has restored a controversial fly-over program in the country with the US military, and also participated in the creation of the right-wing-led Prosur bloc as a measure to dismantle the Union of South American Nations created by Correa and allies such as the late Hugo Chavez.

The Ecuadorian leader inked a $4.2 billion loan with the IMF, after spending months claiming Correa had driven the country into historic debt.

In light of these and other measures, Moreno’s move against Assange isn’t surprising, but the timing of it is about more than just appeasing his allies.

“They want to use Julian Assange as a scapegoat to distract from the INA Papers scandal,” says Narvaez, referring to the allegations of corruption that have sullied Moreno, his family and other close associates.

The Ecuadorian president is facing a political investigation over accusations of money laundering through offshore accounts and shell companies in Panama, including the INA Investment Corp, of which Moreno’s brother was the registered owner.

Documents obtained by an opposition lawmaker, as well as damning images and documents circulating on social media that were apparently hacked from Moreno’s telephone, have irreparably tarnished his image and his credibility as anti-corruption campaigner.

Approval ratings for Moreno have since plummeted, and only 17 percent of Ecuadorians say they believe their president.

Predictably, his party was punished at the polls in the country’s recent municipal elections, losing two-thirds of the territories they won previously.

Risks of his impeachment are also growing.

Corruption investigation opened against Ecuador’s president Moreno, after purported leaked contents of his iPhone (Whatsapp, Telegram) & Gmail were published. New York Times reported that Moreno tried to sell Assange to US for debt relief. https://t.co/0KFcBrnUfr

— WikiLeaks (@wikileaks) March 25, 2019

In what can only be described as a desperate attempt to divert attention, Moreno and his officials accused Assange and WikiLeaks of orchestrating the scandal.

Communications Minister Andres Michelena went as far as to claim that Assange was colluding with Correa and Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro to ‘destabilize’ Ecuador’s government.

The government submitted a complaint to the United Nations Rapporteur on Privacy accusing WikiLeaks of being responsible for the leak, and Moreno himself pointed to Assange, saying he had “violated the conditions of his asylum.”

Narvaez, who made headlines after issuing a “safe pass” for NSA leaker Edward Snowden to travel to Ecuador to seek political asylum in 2013, says Assange has not broken any rules and the claims are merely pretexts to end his asylum.

“Political asylum does not restrict rights, on the contrary, it should protect rights, and Julian Assange’s rights are being systematically violated by the government of Lenin Moreno.”

Moreno’s decision to ‘withdraw’ asylum is nonetheless dubious, and might still face a number of legal challenges given various significant developments in the last few years.

Assange has won favorable verdicts at the United Nations and the Inter-American Commission of Human Rights asserting his freedom, and he is no longer wanted for questioning in Sweden.

Moreover, Assange is now an Ecuadorian citizen, and the country’s constitution prohibits the government from allowing an Ecuadorian to be extradited.Moreno’s ‘suspension’ of Assange’s citizenship certainly has no precedent let alone basis, and a challenge in the courts could force a reversal.

Given the state of affairs in Ecuador, these might all just be formalities.

Impeachment or not, Moreno has long been rumored to be preparing an early exit and his right-wing allies appear poised to take over the helm in the Carondelet Palace.

Nevertheless, his crusade against Correa’s Citizen’s Revolution has meant a dismantling of institutions and regulations, coupled with austerity measures that have included massive public layoffs. The country finds itself spiraling towards the political instability and disarray that characterized the Andean nation during the 1990s and early 2000s, and therefore laws and process may be insufficient to stop the extradition of Assange’s after his forced exit from Ecuador’s embassy.

Assange is trapped in this Kafkaesque scenario, moved from one cage to another, waiting for his adversaries to determine his fate.

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2KNwZIm Tyler Durden

Turkey’s Hurriyet Daily has confirmed Russia and Turkey have agreed to create a “Russia-Turkey Investment Fund” following President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s visit to Moscow early last week, where he met with President Putin to more broadly discuss technological cooperation, closer military ties and the future of action and local ceasefires in Syria. 

The initiative was announced by the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, and Turkey Wealth Fund (TWF) last week connected to the summit.

“At the initial stage the investments in the funds’ projects will amount to 200 million euros. The total size of the Russia-Turkey Investment Fund is 900 million euros,” the RDIF said in a statement. 

The agreement of the new cooperative venture was signed in the presence of Erdoğan and Russian President Vladimir Putin, and will be central to assisting joint Russian-Turkish projects in the areas of technology, healthcare, and urban infrastructure. 

“This is an important milestone for TWF and we believe initiating investments through RTIF in focused sectors will cement the relationship of both sovereign investment funds and further strengthen the relationship between Turkey and Russia,” the managing director of the Turkey Wealth Fund, Zafer Sönmez, said in a media release.

The TWF is described as follows: 

Turkey’s wealth fund, established in 2016, holds the total or part of shares of several Turkish companies such as flag carrier Turkish Airlines, telecommunications giant Türk Telekom, state-owned lenders Ziraat and Halk, Turkish Petroleum and Borsa Istanbul.

Its portfolio also includes the petroleum pipeline company BOTAŞ, the postal services company PTT, and the national lottery Milli Piyango.

According to the fund’s website, its mission is to develop and increase the value of the country’s strategic assets and consequently provide resource for our country’s primary investments.

More broadly, the newly established Russia-Turkey Investment Fund further suggests that Turkey is fast moving into Moscow’s orbit. 

For starters, Putin and Erdogan have already met multiple times this year, which doesn’t bode well for the White House’s ultimatum weeks ago saying that “Turkey must choose.” 

It appears Turkey’s “choice” is becoming evident. Washington and Ankara have been in a diplomatic showdown and crisis surrounding blocked orders of Lockheed’s F-35 stealth fighter due to Turkey’s plan to receive Russian S-400 anti-air defense systems this summer. 

Erdogan again affirmed last week amid US ultimatums, “those who ask or suggest we backtrack don’t know us,” and told reporters just after meeting with Putin, “If we sign a deal on an issue, that’s a done deal. This is our sovereign right, no one can ask us to back down.’’

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2IyLrkX Tyler Durden

Via TruePublica.org.uk,

Leaving aside Britain’s past, most particularly that of empire, the country is not just continually moving towards authoritarianism it is beginning to demonstrate all the early signs of a rogue state. These are strong words but the actual definition of a rogue state is –  “a nation or state regarded as breaking international law and posing a threat to the security of other nations.” Examples such as the illegal invasion of Iraq, Syria and latterly Libya are very clear. Irrespective of the technicalities, they all broke the rules of International laws or norms. But other examples demonstrate how lawless Britain as a state really is.

Chagos

Here, an entire population were forcibly removed from their island homeland at British gunpoint to make way for a US Air Force nuclear base, the people were dumped destitute over a thousand miles away, their domestic animals gassed by the British army, their homes fired and then demolished. To achieve this, Britain maliciously threatened the Mauritian government into ceding the Chagos Islands as a condition of its Independence.

Recently, the International Court of Justice found that the British occupation of the Chagos Islands was unlawful by a majority of 13 to 1. Britain rejected this ruling.

Ex British ambassador Craig Murray wrote – “this represents a serious escalation in the UK’s rejection of multilateralism and international law and a move towards joining the US model of exceptionalism, standing outside the rule of international law. As such, it is arguably the most significant foreign policy development for generations. In the Iraq war, while Britain launched war without UN Security Council authority, it did so on a tenuous argument that it had Security Council authority from earlier resolutions. The UK was therefore not outright rejecting the international system. On Chagos it is now simply denying the authority of the International Court of Justice; this is utterly unprecedented.”

Weapons and war crimes

Britain’s arms and munitions sales are now regularly in the news. Even The Lords international relations committee said that British weapons were “highly likely to be the cause of significant civilian casualties” in various countries where illegal wars, acts of genocide and war crimes are being committed. A quick online search lists numerous examples.

Israel

Then there is Britain’s relationship with Israel, which is taking a battering due to internal politics and finger-pointing over claims of racism. Fundamentally though, the issue is about war crimes being committed against the Palestinian people. British arms sales to Israel is at best questionable, especially the news that British made sniper rifles were used to kill and injure thousands of Palestinians recently. But Britain’s support in this genocidal war again goes against all international norms where the conflict is described by Amnesty International as an “abhorrent violation of international laws.” It added that – “This is another horrific example of the Israeli military using excessive force and live ammunition in a totally deplorable way. This is a violation of international standards, in some instances committing what appear to be wilful killings constituting war crimes.”

In addition, UK policy is allowing trade with ‘Israeli’ goods from illegal settlements in the occupied territories. The British government has stated that it does not even keep a record of imports into the UK from these illegal Israeli settlements. Acquiescing in this illegal trade by an occupying power is a violation of international law. The December 2016 UN Security Council Resolution, to which the UK agreed:

‘reaffirms that the establishment by Israel of settlements in the Palestinian territory occupied since 1967, including East Jerusalem, has no legal validity and constitutes a flagrant violation under international law”

Libya

Mark Curtis, a British foreign policy expert and historian writes about Britain’s illegal attack of a soverign state – Libya: “British bombing in Libya, which began in March 2011, was a violation of UN Resolution 1973, which authorised member states to enforce a no-fly zone over Libya and to use ‘all necessary measures’ to prevent attacks on civilians but did not authorise the use of ground troops or regime change promoted by the Cameron government. That these policies were illegal is confirmed by Cameron himself, who told Parliament on 21 March 2011 that the UN resolution ‘explicitly does not provide legal authority for action to bring about Gaddafi’s removal from power by military means.” Today, Libya is a failed state and overrun by militant factions.

Extrajudicial assassinations and even a kill list

Reprieve’s report entitled Britain’s Kill List accused the Conservative government of extreme deception of parliament. Officially, Britain has never had a so-called ‘kill list’ but David Cameron had to admit to an extrajudicial assassinations programme in the Middle East, which we at TruePublica reported. All such killings break the most fundamental of international laws and norms as detailed HERE.

The Reprieve introductory paragraph reads -“On September 7th, 2015, Prime Minister David Cameron came to Parliament and announced a “new departure” for Britain, a policy of killing individuals the Security Services and the military do not like, people placed on a list of individuals who the UK (acting along with the US and others) have identified and systematically plan to kill. The mere admission that there is a Kill List certainly should, indeed, have been a “departure” for a country that prides itself on decency. Unfortunately, it was not a “new departure” at all, as we had been doing it secretly for more than a decade.”

Statelessness

Britain has once again broken international norms. The goals of UNHCR’s stateless campaign, a Global Action Plan to End Statelessness 2014 – 2024 introduced a guiding framework comprised of 10 Actions to be undertaken by states. In the case of high-profile ‘ISIS Bride’ runaway from Bethnal Green to Baghuz, Shamima Begum, the UK disregarded Actions 4 and 9:

Action 4: Prevent denial, loss or deprivation of nationality on discriminatory grounds.

Action 9: Accede to the UN Statelessness Conventions.

But Britain’s has its own laws. Section 40(2) of the 1981 British Nationality Act states the Home Secretary won’t make any individual rendered stateless as a result. Under this, the UK Home Secretary Sajid Javid’s decision to revoke Begum’s citizenship breaks UK law and international norms.

Political prisoner

Then, there is the persecution of Julian Assange, the founder of Wikileaks, which is now seven years old. Ecuador has protected Assange for the past half decade from being turned over to Washington until his arrest by British police yesterday. By definition, Assange is the only political prisoner in western Europe.  A United Nations legal panel ruled that Assange should be allowed to walk free and be compensated for his “deprivation of liberty” and that his detention was illegal.

Assange has been nominated for a Nobel peace prize every year since 2010. His really big crime was releasing film of an American helicopter gunship killing civilians and journalists in Iraq. Britain is more than just complicit of it attack of fundamental and important press freedoms in arresting him.

Assange’s lawyer criticised the British government for being poised to arrest and extradite Assange to the United States. “That a government would cooperate with another state to extradite a publisher for publishing truthful information outside its territory sets a dangerous precedent here in the UK and elsewhere,” she said. “No one can deny that risk. That is why he sought asylum in the Ecuadorian embassy.”

Surveillance

The UK government’s record on bulk data handling for intelligence purposes saw the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) ruling that state surveillance practices such as those practised in Britain violated human rights law. United National Special Rapporteur on Privacy Joe Cannataci said Britain was setting a bad example to the world and that Britain’s surveillance techniques on its own citizens was – “worse than Orwell’s 1984.” The highest courts in Britain have ruled against the government on mass surveillance.

In 2014, British spies were (illegally) granted the authority to secretly eavesdrop on legally privileged attorney-client communications, according to documents. The documents were made public as a result of a legal case brought against the British government by Libyan families who allege that they were subjected to extraordinary rendition and torture, where Britain was proven to be in violation of international laws, in a joint British-American operation that took place in 2004.

A lawyer, in this case, said – “It could mean, amazingly, that the government uses the information they have got from snooping on you, against you, in a case you have brought. This clearly violates an age-old principle of English law set down in the 16th century – that the correspondence between a person and their lawyer is confidential.”

In addition, just one of the many operations carried out by the British state was called Optic Nerve. It illegally went about capturing images from webcams of millions of completely innocent citizens accused of nothing. Between 3% and 11% of the images captured by the webcams were sexually explicit in nature and deemed “undesirable nudity.” The public has not been reassured that these files still exist or not that were taken to build an illegal facial recognition system the government had not declared.

Surveillance operations such as – Muscular, Socialist, Gemalto, Three Smurfs, XKeyScore, Upstream and Tempora are all examples of extreme surveillance systems being used in Britain that would be completely unknown if it had not been for Edward Snowden – another political prisoner. All such operations would be deemed illegal in court and of breaking international laws or norms in normal democratic countries.

Health and Safety

In 2015, the Government pushed through a law that exempted a large number of self-employed people from the protection of the Health and Safety at Work Act. The Government managed to get away with reducing the level of protection because the self-employed are not covered by the European “Framework Directive”, which is the regulation that sets minimum standards that countries have to comply with.

At the time the TUC pointed out to the Government that there were other international laws that the UK had signed up to in many other non European countries that did cover the self-employed including those of the International Labour Organisation (ILO) and the Council of Europe.

Disability

The UN Committee on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities examined the British government’s progress in fulfilling its commitments to the UN convention on disabled people’s rights, to which the UK has been a signatory since 2007.

Its report concludes that the UK has not done enough to ensure the convention, which enshrines the rights of disabled people to live independently, to work and to enjoy social protection without discrimination – is reflected in UK law and policy.

Although it praises some initiatives by the Scottish and Welsh governments to promote inclusion, it is scathing of the UK government’s inconsistent and patchy approach to protecting disability rights and its failure to audit the impact of its austerity policies on disabled people.

Trust

Breaking international laws and norms has a long-term effect, mainly that of detriment to national security, long-term interests and trust. There is an assumption, of course, that international law cannot be enforced but in today’s world, international sanctions can be as damaging as using force. Those sanctions could be economic or diplomatic in nature. And if Britain wants to be an international player, it very strongly needs to appreciate and adhere to international laws and norms.

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2ZcL7OI Tyler Durden

Via AlMasdarNews.com

China has issued another firm warning to Taiwan amid the ongoing turmoil between the two east Asian nations.

According to the Chinese publication The Global Times, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) of China has many options on the table, including the possibility of turning Taiwan into another Lebanon.

“The PLA has many choices, including crossing the ‘middle line,’ flying over the Taiwan island and even turn Taiwan into a Lebanon-like situation,” the newspaper said. “These choices don’t necessarily lead to war. They are enough to force Taiwan authorities to readjust their radical policies.”

The “Lebanon-like situation” is a reference to the fourteen-year-long (1975-1989) civil war in which the small Levantine country became a battleground for foreign entities like Israel, Syria, and the Palestine Liberation Organization(PLO).

Israel ultimately used Lebanon to fight their proxy war against the Palestine Liberation Organization, while also curbing Syria’s influence from the southern part of the country.

“Washington is choosing the wrong place, time and opponent to flex its muscle in Taiwan Straits,” warned Global Times. If the U.S. military stations forces in Taiwan, China will attack, the article said. If the U.S. sells advanced fighters like the F-16V to Taiwan, the People’s Liberation Army will respond.

Meanwhile, the National Interest reported that this warning came in response to U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton complaints about Chinese J-11 fighter jets crossing the middle line of the Taiwan Strait.

“It marked the first time in almost twenty years that Chinese aircraft have done this, with Taiwanese fighters scrambling to intercept them,” the National Interest added.

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2IyBX9l Tyler Durden