JPMorgan Expert: Illinois Bankruptcy Option Needed – True Debt, Pension, Health Costs Would Consume Half Of Revenue

Authored by Mark Glennon via WirePoints.com,

Michael Cembalest is Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

His report released yesterday, The ARC and the Covenants, updates his earlier research comparing the percentage of state revenues needed to pay interest on general obligation debt, and meet all future pension and retiree healthcare obligations. [The link to the report appears to be working sporadically: https://www.jpmorgan.com/directdoc/ARC4_ES.pdf ]

Most states, he concludes, have manageable burdens (which he defines as 15% or less).

Not Illinois, which is far worst among the states. By his calculations, 51% of state revenue would have to go towards debt, pensions and retiree healthcare to reach full funding, and that would take 30 years. He assumes all pensions will earn 6% per year on invested assets. His comparison chart is below.

For the worst off states, particularly Illinois and New Jersey, Cembalest says a solution based on tax increases or higher employee contributions is probably neither economically or politically viable.

Hence, the bankruptcy option:

I participated in a seminar at Harvard’s Kennedy School last year, and there was a sense that the US should use the Promesa legislation for Puerto Rico as a dry run for creating  state-level bankruptcy rules, just in case. I think the expansion of Chapter 9 legislation for states makes sense, and I’m not the only one.

He cites former FDIC Chairman William M. Isaac, who earlier wrote:

The city of Chicago and the state of Illinois should act now to restructure their liabilities and put the fiscal mess behind them. This can be accomplished by utilizing Chapter 9 and other tools Congress just gave Puerto Rico. The process would entail about two years of unpleasant headlines, but the city and the state will rebound far sooner and less painfully than if t hey stay on their current paths. (Our article on those comments by Isaac is linked here.)

The analysis states that it represents the views and estimates of the author, Michael Cembalest, only, and should not be treated as J.P. Morgan Research. Note, however, that the chart above showing the 51% and comparison to other states is from J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

Cembalest concludes with this:

Public sector workers form a critical part of our civil society. They risk their lives to protect us when we’re in danger; they make our lives safer, cleaner and more efficient; they educate our children; they enforce the rule of law and provide remedies when laws are broken; they ensure access to clean air, water and food; and they heal us when we’re sick. The legal, medical, environmental and educational problems sometimes found in other countries are a reminder of what life might be like without them. They have earned the benefits they accrued and which were granted by state legislatures, and have the right to expect them to be paid.

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Rosenstein Bails On Congressional Testimony

Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein will not appear in front of the House Judiciary Committee on Thursday to discuss reports that he wanted to secretly record President Trump and then use the recordings to remove him from office under the 25th Amendment, reports the Daily Caller‘s Chuck Ross, citing an anonymous House Judiciary Committee aide, and later confirmed by CNN.

Rosenstein said he was joking when he made the comments to former FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe and FBI attorney Lisa Page, however that claim has been refuted by the FBI’s former top attorney. 

“We have many questions for Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein and expect answers to those questions. There is not at this time a confirmed date for a potential meeting,” the aide told the Caller

Don’t think he is coming,” added one Republican lawmaker on Wednesday. 

The same lawmaker told TheDCNF on Tuesday that Rosenstein was likely to testify before the House Judiciary and House Oversight & Government Reform Committees to answer questions about claims he discussed wearing a wire during his interactions with Trump.

Members of the conservative House Freedom Caucus had called on Rosenstein to testify about his remarks, which were first reported by The New York Times on Sept. 21.

The conservative lawmakers, including North Carolina Rep. Mark Meadows and Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan, have been staunch critics of Rosenstein because of his failure to respond to requests for documents related to the FBI’s handling of the Trump-Russia probe. –Daily Caller

On Tuesday we reported that the FBI’s former top attorney, James Baker, told Congressional investigators last week that Rosenstein wasn’t joking about taping Trump. 

“As far as Baker was concerned, this was a real plan being discussed,” reports The Hill‘s John Solomon, citing a confidential source. 

“It was no laughing matter for the FBI,” the source added. 

Solomon points out that Rosenstein’s comments happened right around the time former FBI Director James Comey was fired. 

McCabe, Baker’s boss, was fired after the DOJ discovered that he had leaked self-serving information to the press and then lied to investigators about it. Baker, meanwhile, was central to the surveillance apparatus within the FBI during the counterintelligence operation on then-candidate Trump. 

As the former FBI general counsel, Baker was a senior figure with a pivotal position who had the ear of the FBI director.

Baker also is at the heart of surveillance abuse accusations, many from congressional Republicans. His deposition lays the groundwork for a planned closed-door House GOP interview with Rosenstein later this week.

Baker, formerly the FBI’s top lawyer, helped secure the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) warrant on former Trump campaign adviser Carter Page, as well as three subsequent renewals. –Fox News

Meanwhile, the New York Times noted that McCabe’s own memos attest to Rosenstein’s intentions to record Trump – which led to Rosenstein reportedly tendering a verbal resignation to White House chief of staff John Kelly.

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“We Crossed The Line” – Martin Armstrong Lashes Out At Hillary Advocating Violence Unless Democrats Win

Authored by Martin Armstrong via ArmstrongEconomics.com,

Some people have asked about the computer projections for a tremendous increase in civil violence. There is absolutely no resolution to the great divide that has unfolded politically. The Democrats advocate violence as Hillary clearly states…

She says that civility can ONLY return when the Democrats take back the government. Clearly, this is throwing down the gauntlet that it shall be their way or no way. This is the end of Democracy for what she is saying is there is to be none.

Back at the beginning of the current Private Wave on the Economic Confidence Model in 1985, I warned that we would face a Crisis in Democracy…

It would begin as the government loses power over the economy and the people, it first becomes more abusive. We have been gradually witnessing this trend with the hunt for taxes.

The next stage is the violence. This is what will carry us into the peak of 2032. By that time, the hatred we are witnessing today drawn on political lines is simply that what will happen is all civility vanishes and this will build into violence and end in civil war. Unfortunately, this is not my OPINION. It is simply a correlation of trends that repeat throughout history.

Hillary is effectively advocating the destruction of the United States. She has simply stated bluntly that democracy will no longer be tolerated unless the Democrats win and then subjugate the opposition. She just can not see what she is doing.

So welcome to the new reality of where this madness is going.

The embattled Supreme Court nominee secured 50 votes in the Senate and was sworn in as Justice Brett Kavanaugh. The Democrats knew that they would lose so they turned the appointment into a dramatic confrontation that was so outrageous at this point NOBODY in their right mind would ever again throw their hat into the ring. This was all staged and it is intended to be taken all the way into 2020. My live sources say the strategy will make Kavanaugh as a poster child and they will label him as a rapist from here on out.

We have crossed the line. There is no going back.

We will now face the Decline & Fall of the United States and this is part of the shift of the Financial Capital of the world to China after 2032. When I lived in New Jersey, at the home next door, a bitter divorce took place. The wife refused to agree with anything and even refused to sign their taxes. The house had been on the market and was under contract for $2.6 million. She refused to sign just to spite her husband. The IRS seized the house, put it up for auction, and sold it for $750,000. Her bitterness wiped out her own future. This is what is taking place on a national level.

*  *  *

Social media seemed to agree with Armstrong…

Tucker Carlson explains…

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Rare Polio-Like Disease Hits Children In 16 States

Children’s hospitals across the country are reporting the spread of a rare polio-like illness which has affected 38 people across 16 states this year. 

The rare but serious disease known as Acute Flaccid Myelitis or AFM first made headlines in 2014. Since then, the CDC has tracked 362 cases almost entirely confined to children. 

There is no vaccine for AFM – which is defined as an “inflammation of the spinal cord” which results in “limb, facial, oral or eye weakness” which can vary from subtle to severe. 

Recently, a 2-year-old girl from Batavia, Julia Payne, was placed on a respirator and fed intravenously after being unable to swallow on her own.

Julia Payne, 2, is being treated at Lurie Children’s Hospital for acute flaccid myelitis, or AFM. (WGN-TV)

In Pittsburgh, three cases of AFM were reported by the UPMC Children’s Hospital – which said in a statement: 

“UPMC Children’s Hospital of Pittsburgh is taking care of three children with suspected Acute Flaccid Myelitis. The patients are currently undergoing diagnostic procedures and treatments. Isolation protocols and infection control procedures are in place and we are working with the CDC and the Allegheny County Health Department to further monitor and evaluate the patient conditions.”

Researchers are unclear on how AFM is contracted, however the CDC has suggested it may be contracted through the polio virus, non-polio enteroviruses, West Nile virus and adenovirus. Disease investigators think that the 2014 outbreak was linked to a respiratory illness in children caused by enterovirus D 68. 

In rare cases, AFM can cause respiratory failure and death. 

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Pepe Escobar: Future Of Western Democracy Being Played Out In Brazil

Authored by Pepe Escobar via ConsortiumNews.com,

Nothing less than the future of politics across the West – and across the Global South – is being played out in Brazil.

Stripped to its essence, the Brazilian presidential elections represent a direct clash between democracy and an early 21st Century, neofascism, indeed between civilization and barbarism.

Geopolitical and global economic reverberations will be immense. The Brazilian dilemma illuminates all the contradictions surrounding the Right populist offensive across the West, juxtaposed to the inexorable collapse of the Left. The stakes could not be higher.

Jair Bolsonaro, an outright supporter of Brazilian military dictatorships of last century, who has been normalized as the “extreme-right candidate,” won the first round of the presidential elections on Sunday with more than 49 million votes. That was 46 percent of the total, just shy of a majority needed for an outright win. This in itself is a jaw-dropping development.

His opponent, Fernando Haddad of the Workers’ Party (PT), got only 31 million votes, or 29 percent of the total. He will now face Bolsonaro in a runoff on October 28. A Sisyphean task awaits Haddad: just to reach parity with Bolsonaro, he needs every single vote from those who supported the third and fourth-placed candidates, plus a substantial share of the almost 20 percent of votes considered null and void.

Meanwhile, no less than 69 percent of Brazilians, according to the latest polls, profess their support for democracy. That means 31 percent do not.

No Tropical Trump

Dystopia Central does not even begin to qualify it. Progressive Brazilians are terrified of facing a mutant “Brazil” (the movie) cum Mad Max wasteland ravaged by evangelical fanatics, rapacious neoliberal casino capitalists and a rabid military bent on recreating a Dictatorship 2.0.

Bolsonaro: Danger for Brazil.

Bolsonaro, a former paratrooper, is being depicted by Western mainstream media essentially as the Tropical Trump. The facts are way more complex.

Bolsonaro, a mediocre member of Congress for 27 years with no highlights on his C.V., indiscriminately demonizes blacks, the LGBT community, the Left as a whole, the environment “scam” and most of all, the poor. He’s avowedly pro-torture. He markets himself as a Messiah – a fatalistic avatar coming to “save” Brazil from all those “sins” above.

The Goddess of the Market, predictably, embraces him. “Investors” – those semi-divine entities – deem him good for “the market”, with his last-minute offensive in the polls mirroring a rally in the Brazilianreal and the Sao Paulo stock exchange.

Bolsonaro may be your classic extreme-right “savior” in the Nazi mould. He may embody Right populism to the core. But he’s definitely not a “sovereignist” – the motto of choice in political debate across the West. His “sovereign” Brazil would be run more like a retro-military dictatorship totally subordinated to Washington’s whims.

Bolsonaro’s ticket is compounded by a barely literate, retired general as his running mate, a man who is ashamed of his mixed race background and is frankly pro-eugenics.General Antonio Hamilton Mourão has even revived the idea of a military coup.

Manipulating the ticket, we find massive economic interests, tied to mineral wealth, agro-business and most of all the Brazilian Bible Belt. It is complete with death squads against Native Brazilians, landless peasants and African-American communities. It is a haven for the weapons industry. Call it the apotheosis of tropical neo-pentecostal, Christian-Zionism.

Praise the Lord

Brazil has 42 million evangelicals – and over 200 representatives in both branches of Parliament. Don’t mess with theirjihad. They know how to exercise massive appeal among the beggars at the neoliberal banquet. The Lula Left simply didn’t know how to seduce them.

So even with echoes of Mike Pence, Bolsonaro is the Brazilian Trump only to a certain extent: his communication skills – talking tough, simplistically, is language understandable to a seven-year old. Educated Italians compare him to Matteo Salvini, the Lega leader, now Minister of Interior. But that’s also not exactly the case.

Bolsonaro is a symptom of a much larger disease. He has only reached this level, a head-to-head in the second round against Lula’s candidate Haddad, because of a sophisticated, rolling, multi-stage, judicial/congressional/business/media Hybrid War unleashed on Brazil.

Way more complex than any color revolution, Hybrid War in Brazil featured a law-fare coup under cover of the Car Washanti-corruption investigation. That led to the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff and Lula being thrown in jail on corruption charges with no hard evidence or smoking gun.

In every poll Lula would win these elections hand down. The coup plotters managed to imprison him and prevent him from running. Lula’s right to run was highlighted by everyone from Pope Francis to the UN’s Human Rights Council, as well as Noam Chomsky. Yet in a delightful historical twist, the coup plotters’ scenario blew up in their faces as the front-runner to lead the country is not one of them, but a neofascist.

“One of them” would ideally be a faceless bureaucrat affiliated with the former social democrats, the PSDB, turned hardcore neoliberals addicted to posing as Center Left when they are the “acceptable” face of the neoliberal Right. Call them Brazilian Tony Blairs. Specific Brazilian contradictions, plus the advance of Right populism across the West, led to their downfall.

Even Wall Street and the City of London (which endorsed Hybrid War on Brazil after it was unleashed by NSA spying of oil giant Petrobras) have started entertaining second thoughts on supporting Bolsonaro for president of a BRICS nation, which is a leader of the Global South, and until a few years ago, was on its way to becoming the fifth largest economy in the world.

It all hangs on the “vote transfer” mechanism from Lula to Haddad and the creation of a serious, multi-party Progressive Democratic Front on the second round to defeat the rising neofascism. They have less than three weeks to pull it off.

The Bannon Effect

Bannon: Danger for Europe.

It’s no secret that Steve Bannon is advising the Bolsonaro campaign in Brazil. One of Bolsonaro’s sons, Eduardo, met with Bannon in New York two months ago after which the Bolsonaro camp decided to profit from Bannon’s supposed “peerless” social engineering insights.

Bolsonaro’s son tweeted at the time, “We’re certainly in touch to join forces, especially against Cultural Marxism.” That was followed by an army of bots disgorging an avalanche of fake news up to Election Day.

A specter haunts Europe. Its name is Steve Bannon. The specter has moved on to the tropics.

In Europe, Bannon is now poised to intervene like an angel of doom in a Tintoretto painting heralding the creation of a EU-wide Right Populist coalition.

Bannon is notoriously praised to high heavens by Italian Interior Minister Salvini; Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban; Dutch nationalist Geert Wilders; and scourge of the Paris establishment, Marine Le Pen.

Last month, Bannon set up The Movement; at first sight just a political start-up in Brussels with a very small staff. But talk about Boundless Ambition: their aim is no less than turning the European parliamentary elections in May 2019 upside down.

The European parliament in Strasbourg – a bastion of bureaucratic inefficiency – is not exactly a household name across the EU. The parliament is barred from proposing legislation. Laws and budgets can only be blocked via a majority vote.

Bannon aims at capturing at least one-third of the seats in Strasbourg. He’s bound to apply tested American-style methods such as intensive polling, data analysis, and intensive social media campaigns – much the same as in Bolsonaro’s case. But there’s no guarantee it will work, of course.

The foundation stone of The Movement was arguably laid in two key meetings in early September set up by Bannon and his right-hand man, Mischael Modrikamen, chairman of the quite small Belgian Parti Populaire (PP). The first meeting was in Rome with Salvini and the second in Belgrade with Orban.

Modrikamen defines the concept as a “club” which will “collect funds from donors, in America and Europe, to make sure ‘populist’ ideas can be heard by the citizens of Europe who perceive more and more that Europe is not a democracy anymore.”

Modrikamen insists, “We are all sovereignists.” The Movement will hammer four themes that seem to form a consensus among disparate, EU-wide political parties: against “uncontrolled immigration”; against “Islamism”; favoring “security” across the EU; and supporting “a Europe of sovereign nations, proud of their identity.”

The Movement should really pick up speed after next month’s midterms in the U.S. In theory, it could congregate different parties from the same nation under its umbrella. That could be a very tall order, even taller than the fact key political actors already have divergent agendas.

Wilders wants to blow up the EU. Salvini and Orban want a weak EU but they don’t want to get rid of its institutions. Le Pen wants a EU reform followed by a “Frexit” referendum.

The only themes that unite this mixed Right Populism bag are nationalism, a fuzzy anti-establishment drive and a – quite popular – disgust with the EU’s overwhelming bureaucratic machine.

Here we find some common ground with Bolsonaro, who poses as a nationalist and as against the Brazilian political system – even though he’s been in Parliament for ages.

There’s no rational explanation for Bolsonaro’s last-minute surge among two sections of the Brazilian electorate that deeply despise him: women and the Northeast region, which has always been discriminated against by the wealthier South and Southeast.

Much like Cambridge Analytica in the 2016 U.S. election, Bolsonaro’s campaign targeted undecided voters in Northeastern states, as well as women voters, with a barrage of fake news demonizing Haddad and the Workers’ Party. It worked like a charm.

The Italian Job

I’ve just been to northern Italy checking out how popular Salvini really is. Salvini defines the May 2019 European Parliament elections as “the last chance for Europe.” Italian Foreign Minister Enzo Moavero sees them as the first “real election for the future of Europe.” Bannon also sees the future of Europe being played in Italy.

It’s quite something to seize the conflicting energy in the air in Milan, where Salvini’s Lega is quite popular while at the same time Milan is a globalized city crammed with ultra-progressive pockets.

At a political debate about a book published by the Bruno Leoni Institute regarding exiting the euro, Roberto Maroni, a former governor of the powerful Lombardia region, remarked: “Italexit is outside of the formal agenda of the government, of the Lega and of the center-right.” Maroni should know, after all he was one of the Lega’s founders.

He hinted however that major changes are on the horizon. “To form a group in the European parliament, the numbers are important. This is the moment to show up with a unique symbol among parties of many nations.”

It’s not only Bannon and The Movement’s Modrikamen. Salvini, Le Pen and Orban are convinced they can win the 2019 elections – with the EU transformed into a “Union of European Nations.” This would include not just a couple of big cities where all the action is, with the rest reduced to fly over status. Right Populism argues that France, Italy, Spain, and Greece are no longer nations – only mere provinces.

Macron: Perfect “progressive” wolf to be released among the sheep.

Right Populism derives immense satisfaction that its main enemy is the self-described “Jupiter” Macron – mocked across France by some as the “Little Sun King.” President Emmanuel Macron must be terrified that Salvini is emerging as the “leading light” of European nationalists.

This is what Europe seems to be coming to: a trashy, Salvini vs. Macron cage match.

Arguably the Salvini vs. Macron fight in Europe might be replicated as Bolsonaro vs. Haddad in Brazil. Some sharp Brazilian minds are convinced Haddad is the Brazilian Macron.

In my view he is not. His has a background in philosophy and he’s a former, competent mayor of Sao Paulo, one of the most complex megalopolises on the planet. Macron is a Rothschild mergers and acquisitions banker. Unlike Macron, who was engineered by the French establishment as the perfect “progressive” wolf to be released among the sheep, Haddad embodies what’s left of really progressive Left.

On top of that – unlike virtually the whole Brazilian political spectrum – Haddad is not corrupt. He’d have to offer the requisite pound of flesh to the usual suspects if he wins of course. But he’s not out to be their puppet.

Compare Bolsonaro’s Trumpism, apparent in his last-minute message before Election Day: “Make Brazil Great Again,” with Trump’s Trumpism.

Bolsonaro’s tools are unmitigated praise of the Motherland; the Armed Forces; and the flag.

But Bolsonaro is not interested in defending Brazilian industry, jobs and culture. On the contrary. A graphic example is what happened in a Brazilian restaurant in Deerfield Beach, Florida, a year ago: Bolsonaro saluted the American flag and chanted “USA! USA!”

That’s undiluted MAGA – without a “B”.

Jason Stanley, professor of philosophy at Yale and author of How Fascism Works, takes us further. Stanley stresses how “the idea in fascism is to destroy economic politics… The corporatists side with politicians who use fascist tactics because they are trying to divert people’s attention from the real forces that cause the genuine anxiety they feel.”

Bolsonaro has mastered these diversionist tactics. And he excels in demonizing so-called Cultural Marxism. Bolsonaro fits Stanley’s description as applied to the U.S.:

“Liberalism and Cultural Marxism destroyed our supremacy and destroyed this wonderful past where we ruled and our cultural traditions were the ones that dominated. And then it militarizes the feeling of nostalgia. All the anxiety and loss that people feel in their lives, say from the loss of their healthcare, the loss of their pensions, the loss of their stability, then gets rerouted into a sense that the real enemy is liberalism, which led to the loss of this mythic past.”

In the Brazilian case, the enemy is not liberalism but the Workers’ Party, derided by Bolsonaro as “a bunch of communists.” Celebrating his astonishing first round victory, he said Brazil was on the edge of a corrupt, communist “abyss” and could either choose a path of “prosperity, freedom, family” or “the path of Venezuela”.

The Car Wash investigation enshrined the myth that the Workers’ Party and the whole Left is corrupt (but not the Right). Bolsonaro overextended the myth:  every minority and social class is a target – in his mind they are “communists” and “terrorists.”

Goebbels comes to mind – via his crucial text The Radicalization of Socialism, where he emphasized the necessity of portraying the center-left as Marxists and socialists because, as Stanley notes, “the middle class sees in Marxism not so much the subverter of national will, but mainly the thief of its property.”

That’s at the center of Bolsonaro’s strategy of demonizing the Workers Party – and the Left in general. The strategy of course is drenched in fake news – once again mirroring what Stanley writes about U.S. history: “The whole concept of empire is based on fake news. All of colonization is based on fake news.”

Right Against Left Populism?

Haddad: Three weeks to head off Bolsonaro

As I wrote in a previous column, the Left in the West is like a deer caught in the headlights when it comes to fighting Right populism.

Sharp minds from Slavoj Zizek to Chantal Mouffe are trying to conceptualize an alternative – without being able to coin the definitive neologism. Left populism? Popularism? Ideally, that should be “democratic socialism” – but no one, in a post-ideology, post-truth environment, would dare utter the dreaded word.

The ascent of Right populism is a direct consequence of the emergence of a profound crisis of political representation all over the West; the politics of identity erected as a new mantra; and the overwhelming power of social media, which allows – in Umberto Eco’s peerless definition – the ascent of “the idiot of the village to the condition of Oracle.”

As we saw earlier, the central motto of Right populism in Europe is anti-immigration – a barely disguised variation of hate towards The Other. In Brazil the main theme, emphasized by Bolsonaro, is urban insecurity. He could be the Brazilian Rodrigo Duterte – or Duterte Harry: “Make my day, punk.”

He portrays himself as the Righteous Defender against a corrupt elite (even though he’s part of the elite); and his hatred of all things politically correct, feminism, homosexuality, multiculturalism – are all unpardonable offenses to his “family values.”

Brazilian historian says the only way to oppose him is to “translate” to each sector of Brazilian society how Bolsonaro’s positions affect them: on “widespread weaponizing, discrimination, jobs, (and) taxes.” And it has to be done in less than three weeks.

Arguably the best book explaining the failure of the Left everywhere to deal with this toxic situation is Jean-Claude Michea’s Le Loup dans la Bergerie – The Wolf Among the Sheep – published in France a few days ago.

Michea shows concisely how the deep contradictions of liberalism since the 18th century – political, economic and cultural – led it to TURN AGAINST ITSELF and be cut off from the initial spirit of tolerance (Adam Smith, David Hume, Montesquieu). That’s why we are deep inside post-democratic capitalism.

Euphemistically called “the international community” by Western mainstream media, the elites, who have been confronted since 2008 with “the growing difficulties faced by the process of globalized accumulation of capital,” now seem ready to do anything to keep its privileges.

Michea is right that the most dangerous enemy of civilization – and even Life on Earth – is the blind dynamics of endless accumulation of capital. We know where this neoliberal Brave New World is taking us.

The only counterpunch is an autonomous, popular movement “that would not be submitted to the ideological and cultural hegemony of ‘progressive’ movements that for over three decades defend only the cultural interests of the new middle classes around the world,” Michae says.

For now, such a movement rests in the realm of Utopia. What’s left is to try to remedy a coming dystopia – such as backing a real Progressive Democratic Front to block a Bolsonaro Brazil.

One of the highlights of my Italian sojourn was a meeting with Rolf Petri, Professor of Contemporary History at the Ca Foscari University in Venice, and author of the absolutely essential A Short History of Western Ideology: A Critical Account.

Ranging from religion, race and colonialism, to the Enlightenment project of “civilization”, Petri weaves a devastating tapestry of how “the imagined geography of a ‘continent’ that was not even a continent offered a platform for the affirmation of European superiority and the civilizing mission of Europe.”

During a long dinner in a small Venetian trattoria away from the galloping selfie hordes, Petri observed how Salvini – a middle-class small entrepreneur – craftily found out how to channel a deep unconscious longing for a mythical harmonious Europe that won’t be coming back, much as petty bourgeois Bolsonaro evokes a mythical return to the “Brazilian miracle” during the 1964-1985 military dictatorship.

Every sentient being knows that the U.S. has been plunged into extreme inequality “supervised” by a ruthless plutocracy. U.S. workers will continue to be royally screwed as are French workers under “liberal” Macron. So would Brazilian workers under Bolsonaro. To borrow then from Yeats, what rough beast, in this darkest hour, slouches towards freedom to be born?

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Here’s What Democrats Plan To Do If They Take Back The House

Democratic leaders have big plans if they walk away with control of the House or Senate in next month’s midterm elections. 

From healthcare to immigration to investigating Trump and his administration – Congressional Democrats are poised to undo as much of Trump’s policies as possible. 

Basically, a lot of the committees have just been rubber stamps for this administration,” said ranking Homeland Security Committee member, Rep. Bernie Thompson (D-MS). 

To that end, The Hill spoke with 12 ranking Democrats and the offices of several others, who laid out the following priorities upon a midterm victory.

Via The Hill

Appropriations

For eight years, Republicans have sought to cut federal funding for a long list of social service programs. That trend would be reversed under Rep. Nita Lowey (D-N.Y.), a 15-term veteran who’s in line to become the first woman to hold the Appropriations gavel in the panel’s long history. 

Lowey hailed the recent passage of a labor-health spending bill, which included a $1 billion increase over 2018 levels to boost initiatives such as medical research, maternity care, home-heating subsidies, nutrition and education programs, and funding to fight the opioid crisis. Anyone wondering what she’d prioritize from atop the committee next year, Lowey said, can find a model in that package. 

“You have a whole variety of investments that really lift people up and help working people,” she said. “Look at that Labor/H bill, and I’d like to do as well or even better.”

Lowey said she’d also aim to reinstate a system of passing the various spending bills separately, after years of lumping them together — or resorting to temporary extensions to prevent government shutdowns — largely due to partisan fights over contentious amendments.  

“I would hope on all of the 12 bills, that on the House side we could have bipartisan bills and do away with the poison pills and be more constructive,” Lowey said.

“We won’t agree on everything,” she continued, “but hopefully at the end we can have regular order.”

 

Armed Services 

Few committees act with the bipartisan cooperation of Armed Services, where members are generally united on issues surrounding the Pentagon and national security. Still, Rep. Adam Smith (Wash.), the panel’s senior Democrat, has designs to rein in certain initiatives. The nuclear weapons program, he said, “is pretty much at the top of the list.”

“The nuclear posture review calls for the building of too many nuclear weapons,” he said, singling out short-range weapons for particular criticism.

Smith, in his 11th term, said he would also conduct a more general examination of the defense budget, which topped $700 billion in fiscal 2019. He suggested the growing figure may pose a threat to other nondefense programs, vowing to continue bipartisan efforts to reform the acquisition process in order to cut costs. 

“How much money are we realistically going to have for defense versus our other priorities?” he asked. 

On the oversight front, Smith said the special forces would be a primary interest, particularly operations in Africa and other hotspots around the globe, where he lamented “a significant increase in civilian casualties.”

“Why are we there? How is that balanced against what’s happening with the intelligence side? Where are we in the world bombing and attacking people?” he said. “I don’t think there’s enough transparency on that.”

Smith said he also hopes to take the administration to task for its approach to the LGBT community. Although President Trump had campaigned as a “real friend” of the gay community, he approved a ban on transgender people serving in the military earlier this year. 

“We’ve done reasonably well on that with Republicans in Congress,” Smith said of the inclusiveness issue. “It’s just where Trump has been at that’s been the problem.”

 

Budget 

The House Budget Committee has typically played a limited (if significant) role on Capitol Hill, charged primarily with setting spending levels for the appropriators to work with. Rep. John Yarmuth (Ky.) wants to change all that. 

The Kentucky Democrat, the committee’s ranking member, is eyeing a novel plan to expand the scope of the panel to include overarching assessments of how specific issues, in the broadest terms, impact the federal budget. Such a “reimagining” of the committee’s role, in Yarmuth’s description, would lend the panel new oversight responsibilities designed to guide legislative debates on leading issues like taxes, immigration, health care and climate change. 

“Those kind of 30,000-foot analyses are really never done in the Congress,” Yarmuth said.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO), of course, already scores specific legislation — a neutral, accepted process that nonetheless has found its critics on both sides of the aisle. Yarmuth wants the committee to conduct its own analyses, taking into consideration elements of the policies that aren’t always reflected in the CBO’s appraisals. 

The aim, he said, is to provide the committees overseeing those issues another store of data when forging legislation.

“They give you a version of impact on the budget that’s just related to their score. But as we know, CBO scores based on a model which doesn’t always include all the implications of certain policy changes on the budget,” Yarmuth said. 

“So the way I look at it, it’s the way to have that kind of discussion and analysis that then serves as a resource for the committees of jurisdiction when they’re actually moving on a particular policy,” he said. 

 

Energy and Commerce 

Few committees oversee a broader swath of issues — or wield more power — than the Energy and Commerce Committee, which presides over policies as diverse as telecommunications, environmental quality and food safety. 

But Rep. Frank Pallone Jr. (D-N.J.), the ranking member who was chairman of the health subcommittee during passage of ObamaCare, has a clear focus if he holds the gavel next year: shoring up that landmark health-care law after eight years of persistent Republican attacks. 

“The most important thing is stabilizing the Affordable Care Act,” he said last month.

He’ll have his work cut out for him. 

While Republicans were unsuccessful in their effort to repeal ObamaCare in full, their tax reform package enacted in December eliminated the mandate for individuals to obtain health insurance. And the administration has joined a Texas suit challenging ObamaCare’s prohibition on insurance companies charging more for patients with pre-existing conditions, which could ultimately price sicker people out of coverage.

Within the health-care realm, Pallone is focused on reducing drug costs. He’s championed legislation to eliminate income caps on eligibility for premium tax credits, while expanding cost-sharing subsidies for lower income patients. He’s also behind a bill to prevent prescription prices in Medicare’s drug benefit program from jumping for high-cost patients, as they’re scheduled to do in 2020.

“The Energy and Commerce Committee will follow through on Democrats’ commitment to lower health care and prescription drug costs for consumers,” he said.

Pallone also has his sights on efforts to bolster the nation’s energy infrastructure, while vowing “vigorous oversight” of the administration for what he calls a “culture of corruption that seriously undermines critical health care, environmental and consumer protections.”

 

Financial Services 

Democrats on the Financial Services Committee have fought for months to use the panel’s subpoena power to access some of Trump’s financial records. That process would likely launch quickly if the gavel falls to Rep. Maxine Waters (D-Calif.), the committee’s ranking member and one of Trump’s sharpest critics. 

“If there is information that is going to be unveiled about what has been going on in the White House or Donald Trump or the Treasury, it will come out,” Waters told MSNBC last month. 

Trump won’t be alone. 

Other Financial Services Democrats are looking forward to the opportunity to haul members of the president’s Cabinet before the panel. Rep. Nydia Velázquez (D-N.Y.) singled out Ben Carson, Trump’s housing chief, and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin for particular scrutiny.

“We need to … look at ways where they have undermined the mission of some of the programs, by not providing the budget, by not filling vacancies,” she said.

Democrats are also keen to bolster the Dodd-Frank Wall Street reform law, a landmark Obama-era initiative that’s been under Republican attack for years. They have particular eyes on propping up the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), an independent agency that’s headed by Trump’s budget director Mick Mulvaney, who has fought to eliminate the bureau altogether. 

Waters introduced legislation last week to protect the CFPB from administrative rollbacks. She declined to comment on her priorities next year — “It’s premature to talk about what’s going to happen,” she told The Hill — but others were more vocal. 

“CFPB has been undermined by Mulvaney,” said Velázquez, “and we have to revisit the budget situation of CFPB and make sure it has the tools … to execute its mission.” 

Velázquez, a Puerto Rican, also wants to boost the federal flood insurance program — a pressing issue following a series of devastating hurricanes.

 

Homeland Security 

Thompson doesn’t hesitate when asked what he’d like to do with the Homeland Security gavel. 

“We’ve not had rigorous oversight, we’ve not had witnesses to present the facts, we’re just left to executive orders,” he said. 

Thompson, the panel’s senior Democrat, is vowing a different tack. He wants the committee to conduct deep dives into election security; Trump’s travel ban; the administration’s uneven response to Hurricane Maria; and the screening methods adopted by the Transportation Security Administration.

“The vulnerabilities that we know of … we’ve not completely addressed,” he said.

The Homeland Security panel also plays a key role overseeing the U.S.-Mexico border, which has become a flashpoint in the partisan culture war over illegal immigration, family separations and Trump’s promised wall. Thompson, like most Democrats, favors the employment of new technologies, not an expensive physical barrier, to stem illegal crossings.  

“We need to really conduct detailed hearings to see how irrational a wall is in this day and time, given where we are as a country technologically,” he said. “We haven’t addressed it.” 

Thompson also wants to redirect law enforcement under the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to focus on criminals — a prioritization of former President Obama that was scrapped by Trump.

“It’s about legislation encouraging them to go after the bad guys first, the MS-13 guys — everybody wants them out of there,” Thompson said. “But we spend a lot of time looking at people who are not nearly as violent.”

 

Intelligence

As ranking member of the Intelligence Committee, Rep. Adam Schiff(Calif.) has become the Democratic face of the House probe into Russia’s election meddling — a position that launched his star on the national stage as the panel devolved into a bitter well of partisan bickering. 

Despite Republican claims that they’ve reached their verdict, Schiff says the panel’s investigation remains very much open. If he becomes chairman, he’s vowing to launch a new round of hearings, while seeking new documents — and compelling testimony from new witnesses — he says were ignored by the Republicans.

“It is ongoing, and it will continue if we are in the majority with power of subpoena,” Schiff told The Hill last month.

One area in particular that the GOP has neglected, according to Schiff, has been an examination of Russia’s potential financial ties to Trump’s sprawling global business empire.  

“There was one issue we were not allowed to look at and the Senate hasn’t been either that concerns me a great deal and that is the issue of whether Russians were laundering money through the Trump Organization and [if] that is the leverage they have over the president,” he said. 

“Someone needs to determine whether those allegations are true or they are not. That certainly would be a priority for me,” he said.

Schiff also wants to dive further into the 2016 Trump Tower meeting between Russian operatives and the president’s campaign team. He’s wary of claims that Trump didn’t know of the meeting and suspects he may have even called into it. 

Those investigations would reignite simmering tensions between the members of the committee. Still, Schiff says his top priority as chairman would be to return a semblance of bipartisan comity to the panel.

 

Judiciary 

Immigration, guns, voting rights, impeachment. Name a hot-button issue and it’s likely to fall under the jurisdiction of the Judiciary Committee, where Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D-N.Y.), the ranking member and among the most vocal critics of the president, would find little time for sleep if he wields the gavel.

The issues may vary, but the common theme is this: Nadler, a constitutional lawyer, thinks the administration is consistently abusing its power — with the tacit blessing of a Republican majority that refuses to investigate. That would change quickly under his watch. 

“The abuses and ethical lapses we have seen in the Trump administration, in the Trump campaign and in Congress clearly show the need to address the culture of corruption that has developed in the absence of appropriate checks on power,” Nadler said over the weekend, delivering the Democrats’ weekly radio address.

Nadler has also lashed out at the administration for refusing to defend certain ObamaCare insurance protections from outside lawsuits; for separating immigrant families at the southern border; for backing the National Rifle Association in opposition to tougher gun laws; and for defending states that have adopted tougher voting restrictions. 

“All of these areas have been completely ignored by a Republican Congress unwilling to do its job for the people,” he said.

Nadler has been fighting for legislation to protect the Department of Justice probe, being led by special counsel Robert Mueller, into potential collusion between Russia and Trump’s campaign during the 2016 elections — a bill Democrats would almost certainly push early if they control the House next year.

Nadler will also come under intense pressure from the Democrats’ liberal base to launch the process to impeach the president. Thus far, he has resisted those entreaties, joining leadership in urging a conclusion to the Mueller investigation. 

 

Natural Resources

The Democrats’ exasperation with Trump’s approach to the environment is no secret. From the president’s expansion of offshore drilling, to his decision to yank the U.S. from the landmark Paris climate accord, to the shrinking of national monuments to free up mineral reserves, Democrats have accused the administration of coddling the extractive industries at the expense of public health.

If the House flips, Democrats would have one of their most liberal voices pushing back on all fronts. And Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.), an eight-term veteran who heads the Progressive Caucus, says his “No. 1” aim will be getting disclosure on a host of decisions emanating from the office of Ryan Zinke, the Interior secretary who Grijalva deems “nonresponsive” to congressional concerns. 

“If there’s no change of behavior, willingly, then [we will] have a robust, legal and investigative arm that does what it needs to do in order to get the answers that we need,” Grijalva said. “Whether that is through subpoena, or through cooperation, it has to [happen].” 

Zinke, a former House member representing Montana, has been the subject of more than 10 formal investigations — seven of them ongoing — into issues ranging from a land deal involving Halliburton’s chairman to his travel on private jets.

On the legislative front, Grijalva named a short list of issues he’d like to tackle quickly. The common theme, he said, will be a focus on strengthening environmental statutes — including the Endangered Species Act and the National Environmental Policy Act — after eight years of attacks from the committee’s Republican majority. 

“I think we have a responsibility to shore them back up,” he said.   

 

Oversight and 
Government Reform 

Rep. Elijah Cummings (D-Md.) will have the gavel for one of the most powerful House panels — and most problematic to Trump — if Democrats retake the House. And the senior Democrat on the Oversight and Government Reform Committee suggests he barely knows where he’ll begin if he gets the chance. 

“There’s so much,” Cummings said, trailing off.

The indecision is fleeting, however, as Cummings quickly rattled off a host of issues he’s hoping to examine early next year. 

Voting rights is near the top of the list — a response to the Supreme Court’s 2013 decision gutting the Voting Rights Act. Since then, a number of states have adopted tougher voting rules, to the howls of Democrats who consider them discriminatory. 

Cummings, in his 11th term, said he’d also delve into the Republican efforts to eliminate pre-existing condition protections under ObamaCare, as well as strategies for lowering the cost of prescription drugs. More broadly, he said he’ll take Trump to task for attacks on the FBI, the media and other institutions — a campaign, Cummings said, that’s “tearing apart the foundations of our democracy.” 

“I haven’t figured out exactly how I’m going to do it, but we’re going to definitely look at that,” he said. 

As a forecast of what might come, Cummings and Oversight Democrats have submitted more than 50 subpoena requests for administrative documents on topics ranging from Trump’s efforts to dismantle ObamaCare and officials’ use of chartered flights to the president’s travel ban and the use of private email in the White House. Republicans have denied every request.

Cummings is no stranger to the fight. In 2010, he hopped over a more senior member, former Rep. Edolphus Towns (N.Y.), to become the committee’s senior Democrat — a move blessed by the party’s leaders, who wanted a figure with Cummings’s pugnacity to go toe-to-toe with former Chairman Darrell Issa (R-Calif.). 

 

Transportation and Infrastructure 

On the campaign trail, Trump promised an enormous infrastructure package to boost the economy and mend the brittle bones of the nation’s aging roads and bridges. Rep. Peter DeFazio (D-Ore.), who has a $500 billion plan in hand, is ready to work with Trump as chairman of the Transportation and Infrastructure Committee next year. But that’s just a start.

The 16-term DeFazio, senior Democrat on the panel, is furious that GOP leaders have repeatedly quashed his bill to ensure that billions of dollars in revenues collected for harbor maintenance be spent for that purpose. The proposal passed through the committee this year with bipartisan support, but never reached the floor.

“That’s easy, hopefully,” DeFazio said. “And that would be at the top of the list.”

DeFazio is also eyeing legislation empowering airports to hike certain passenger fees to underwrite construction of new terminals. 

“The airline industry goes berserk over that, yet they allowed the Republicans to increase the passenger security fee and divert the money to something other than passenger security, and they didn’t scream about that,” he said. “So I’m not very receptive to their arguments.”

DeFazio is also up in arms about the Trump Organization’s lease with the federal government to operate the Trump International Hotel in Washington. Democrats have long accused the president of profiting illegally from the arrangement, and DeFazio has accused the General Services Administration of ignoring his requests for information. 

“They refused to give me documents because I’m a Democrat. … Unprecedented,” he said. “They will be giving me documents.”

DeFazio is eying much broader oversight of the administration but says he hasn’t nailed down all his plans just yet. 

“It’s a pretty good start for the first day,” he said. “Second day I’ll think of something else.” 

 

Ways and Means

Last December, as Republicans celebrated the passage of their tax-code overhaul, Democrats roared about the rushed timeline and a general lack of transparency accompanying the process.

Rep. Richard Neal (D-Mass.), who’s in line to take the gavel of the powerful Ways and Means Committee, is ready to revisit the issue.

On his short list of priorities, conducting hearings on the tax law — something “they never did,” he charged — rises somewhere near the top. 

Democrats aren’t opposed to the tax package on the whole but are eyeing changes that would shift the benefits from corporations and the wealthy to middle-class workers. They also want to reinstall a state and local tax deduction, known as SALT, that was scaled back in the GOP tax law. 

Although revisiting the tax debate would confront the White House head on, Neal is also seeking to prioritize issues where he sees Trump as a potential ally. He named three specifically: shoring up retirement savings, protecting multi-employer pension plans and infrastructure.  

“We’re gonna fix the [Affordable Care Act], but … clearly, the administration might be able to move to do some infrastructure work with us,” he said. “I think it’s going to be harder to get some work on the ACA.” 

Some senior Ways and Means Democrats — notably Rep. Bill Pascrell (N.J.) — are also vowing to examine Trump’s tax returns, which the president has refused to release. As chairman of the Ways and Means panel, Neal can access anyone’s tax returns — including the president’s — and share the findings with the full committee behind closed doors. The panel could then vote to release all, or parts, of the returns to the public.

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China Has Already Lost This War…

Authored by Charles Faddis via AndMagazine.com,

…and our world will never be the same!

The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) is dead. Mexico and Canada have folded. A new agreement, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), will replace it. While the new agreement maintains the integrity of the North American market, it dramatically changes the rules and tilts the playing field in favor of the United States. In particular, changes in provisions regarding the percentage of North American content required in vehicles imported under the agreement, a mandate for huge increases in minimum wages in Mexico and support for labor unions in Mexico mean that an already resurging American manufacturing base is set to expand even more rapidly.

All eyes now shift to the ongoing trade war between the United States and China, the world’s two largest economies. Here the news is even better. We have already won.

Growth in China’s manufacturing sector stalled this September, with export orders falling faster than they have in two years. The Caixin/ Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for September fell more than expected to 50.0 from 50.6 in August. The index measures the rate of expansion or contraction in an economy, and the neutral 50-mark divides expansion from contraction. What was once the world’s fastest growing economy, destined to overtake the United States at any moment, is now poised, not simply to cool off, but to begin to shrink in size. New export orders from Chinese firms, the all-important indicator of what the future portends, are now shrinking across the board.

“Expansion across the manufacturing sector weakened in September, as exports increasingly dragged down performance and continued softening demand began to have an impact on companies’ production,” said Zhengsheng Zhong, director of macroeconomic analysis at CEBM Group, a company specializing in analysis of the Chinese economy. “Downward pressure on China’s economy was significant,” said Zhong.

China’s currency is in free fall. China’s foreign exchange reserves fell more than expected in September 2018 to a 14-month low as the yuan weakened against the dollar.

China’s stock market is crashing. It has lost $2 trillion in value already this year. China, which overtook Japan as the second largest stock market in the world only a few years ago, has now officially fallen behind Japan. The losses show no signs of abating.

Chinese investments in the US plummeted 92 per cent in the first nine months of 2018 from their peak two years ago. In New York, where Chinese money was once driving real estate prices through the roof, the Chinese are now selling and going home. In the second quarter of 2018 Chinese investors sold $1.29 billion worth of US commercial real estate. During the same time period, Chinese investors bought only $126.2 million of property, according to data firm Real Capital Analytics. This marked the first time that these investors were net sellers since 2008.

Meanwhile, back home, China is on pace for a record year in corporate-bond defaults. Chinese companies have reneged on about $2.5 billion of public bond payments so far this year. As the economy downshifts and the threat of US tariffs hangs over everything, Chinese companies increasingly simply cannot pay their debt.

“Corporate profits have worsened this year and are unlikely to improve against the backdrop of an economic slowdown,” said Li Shi, general manager of the rating and bond-research department at China Chengxin International Credit Rating Company.

Meanwhile a spokesman for the Chinese Supreme People’s Court is warning of an impending flood of Chinese bankruptcies and telling the Chinese judiciary to prepare in advance.

“It’s hard to predict how this trade war will develop and to what extent,” the spokesman said. “But one thing is sure: if the US imposes tariffs on Chinese imports following an order of US$60 billion, US$200 billion, or even US$500 billion, many Chinese companies will go bankrupt.”

Against this backdrop China-based manufacturers, many of whom were already in the process of moving out, have intensified the speed with which they are leaving.

“Companies aren’t as eager to have production in China,” says Nathan Resnick, CEO of startup company Sourcify.

“We run production runs in India, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Philippines and Mexico right now. Labor costs are actually more affordable outside of China, so for products like apparel where there is a lot of cut-and-sew labor, most companies are moving out of China anyway,” he says.

“I’ve been going back and forth to China for years, and it is getting more expensive. With all these tariffs coming, why not run some of your production runs elsewhere? Companies are saying that the scare of these tariffs has decreased the incentives to manufacture in China.”

Discussing the trend, William Ma Wing-kai, managing director of Kerry Logistics Network, a Hong Kong-listed firm owned by Malaysia’s billionaire Kuok family, stated,

“Our clients have been shifting part of their production lines as early as March from China to other Asian countries where they already have manufacturing plants. This is a reallocation of global production bases.”

In retrospect none of this should come as a surprise. The result of this confrontation was preordained. The United States is far and away the world’s largest market for consumer goods. China, which lives or dies based on exports cannot lose access to the American market and even begin to replace those sales elsewhere. There are on the other hand an almost endless number of other locations other than China, including the United States, to which manufacturers can move their factories and shift production. China was already seeing the beginnings of this shift before the trade war began. The confrontation with the United States simply intensified the trend.

What comes next will reshape the global economy and the world’s geopolitical landscape. China will ultimately cave and sign a deal. Its economy will not collapse. It will, however, never again see growth on the scale it has seen for the last thirty years. Within a year or two, in fact, we are likely to see a red-hot American economy surge past China in its rate of growth. China, which once thought fit to challenge the United States for global supremacy will remain a second-tier power.

Chinese influence around the world, heavily dependent on the availability of funds to invest, will decline precipitously. Chinese plans for massive defense spending will be still born. Outposts in the South China Sea once taken as harbingers of relentless expansion will instead stand as high-water marks for a nation facing the harsh reality of economic contraction.

The ultimate reckoning will come inside China however. Ever since China opened its economy to the world it has had an implicit bargain with its citizens. They would accept continued authoritarian rule by the Communist Party in exchange for a rising standard of living and greater economic opportunity. The Communist Party is about to be forced to admit that it can no longer keep its end of that bargain. What the people do next remains to be seen.

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Eric Holder Whips Up Democrats: When They Go Low, We Kick Them

As Democrats approach midterms – and more importantly the 2020 US election, former Attorney General Eric Holder had some advice during a Sunday campaign event in Georgia. 

“Michelle [Obama] always says ‘When they go low, we go high.’ No. No. When they go low, we kick them

Holder clarified that he’s not advocating actual violence, saying: “When I say we, you know, ‘We kick ‘em,’ I don’t mean we do anything inappropriate. We don’t do anything illegal.” 

“But we got to be tough, and we have to fight for the very things that [civil rights leaders] John Lewis, Martin Luther King, Whitney Young – you know, all those folks gave to us.” 

Holder isn’t the only leading Democrat calling for aggressive action against conservatives. In a Tuesday interview, Hillary Clinton rejected the idea that Democrats should be “civil” with Republicans in the age of Donald Trump. 

“You cannot be civil with a political party that wants to destroy what you stand for, what you care about,” said Clinton. 

Of course, Clinton also said that if Donald Trump failed to accept his inevitable 2016 election defeat that it would “threaten Democracy.”

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Do Mexico’s Cartels Have WMDs?

Authored by William Craddick via Disobedient Media,

Business has never been better for Mexico’s criminal syndicates…

Organized crime in Mexico and Central America has long played a dominant role in destabilizing the region while contributing to a host of social issues within the United States where one of their largest groups of clientele is located. But more recent events show that the cartels are gaining a previously unheard of boldness, potentially achieving the ability to create WMDs and expanding their control of Mexico’s economy and government while violence escalates within the country.

The threat of cartel-handled nuclear or biological weapons in particular is a grave threat to not only the Mexican government, but also the United States. With a migrant crisis due to looming unrest in South America becoming likely, possession of such weapons will give organized criminal groups a powerful bargaining chip.

I. Increasing Aggression And Acquisition Of Nuclear Materials

Heavy competition between various cartels has contributed to a murder rate that hit an all time high in 2017. Spikes in violence are due to a number of factors, such as removal of certain leadership figures like Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán and a spike in migration and unrest due to a growing “Latin Spring” in parts of Central and South America. The expected surge of refugees from countries such as Venezuela means that criminal groups are likely posturing themselves to control the routes that those fleeing conflict will take as they attempt to enter the United States.

Cartels have also been involved with a number of daring robberies where radioactive materials were stolen. In February and July 2018, Mexican authorities reported thefts of radioactive materials and placed multiple states on alert. These reports were followed by revelations on July 16, 2018 from the Center for Public Integrity that an unknown amount of Plutonium-239 and Cesium-137 had been stolen out of the vehicle of two US Department of Energy employees in Texas the previous year. The materials have not yet been recovered and neither the San Antonio police or the FBI disclosed the incident to the public. It takes only 7 pounds of plutonium to build a functioning nuclear warhead, and much less to combine with conventional explosives for the purpose of creating a dirty bomb. Moving these materials across the southern US border is not prohibitively difficult due to the number of federal employees who are controlled by cartel groups and would be unable to easily tell the difference between drugs and WMDs being moved cross-border.

The danger of WMDs in the hands of Mexican criminal enterprises is twofold. Primarily because they give these organizations serious leverage over the government in Mexico and the United States, but also because the cartels’ international contacts mean that these materials can be distributed worldwide to a variety of groups.

II. International Reach

International connections offer the cartels the opportunity not only to distribute nuclear and biological agents to other groups, but also to acquire more of these materials. International terror networks such as Al Qaeda and ISIS have long had ties to Central and Southern cartel groups through their involvement with the human and drug trafficking trades making the transport of weapons, operatives and materials across the Atlantic an easy process.

Reports claiming that weapons used in the 2015 Paris terror attacks were traced to one of the illegal weapons sales that occurred during Operation Fast and Furious further show the ability of Mexican transnational criminal groups to move not just drugs, but other products across the globe. Al Qaeda operatives have for years bragged that they are able to acquire the services of scientists, chemists and nuclear physicists. With international trade between organized criminals and terror groups becoming so fluid, the idea that the cartels would be able to employ individuals with these specialist skills are hardly far fetched. Claims have also emerged in October 2017 that far left groups from the US and Europe were meeting with members of ISIS and Al Qaeda with the intent of gaining bomb-making know-how in addition to materials needed for chemical and gas weapons. This indicates the alarming likelihood that trafficking groups could be helping to distribute nuclear, biological or chemical materials to Islamist and leftist groups abroad in areas such as the European Union and United States.

Another potential source of nuclear materials is through Russian organized crime networks who are known to deal with both the cartels and Islamic terror groups. Starting first with the Colombian traffickers before establishing economic relationships with their Mexican counterparts, this trade created a new market for cocaine and heroin coming from Central and South America while in return providing a fresh source of weapons and other munitions. This relationship would also allow cartels the opportunity to acquire nuclear material from Russian connected smuggling groups, who are known to have been seeking out ISIS representatives with the intention of selling them WMDs.

The cartels have also established ties with Asian organized crime groups who act as foreign policy agents for the government of China. In 2014, the South China Morning Post reported that Hong Kong based triads 14K and Sun Yee On were engaging with the Sinaloa cartel to provide them with precursor materials needed to produce methamphetamine. In return, Mexican syndicates have been utilizing Hong Kong banks and shell companies to launder money earned from sales of illicit goods. Human smuggling of Chinese nationals into the United States has boomed due to what law enforcement officials say is an “alliance between Chinese and Latin American smuggling rings.”

Disobedient Media reported in 2017 that the 14K triad was working with local affiliates on the American West Coast to push out pro-Taiwanese criminal interests and consolidate control. A 1997 expose by The New Republic showed that the 14K triad operates as a foreign policy proxy for elements of the Chinese Communist Party.

III. Close Ties To Current Mexican Government

Despite the fact that Mexico’s incoming President, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), is seen as a populist and fresh change from Mexico’s elite class his party has known ties to criminal organizations. AMLO has directly advocated a number of policies that will drastically improve rather than hamper the position of the cartels. Obrador’s Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) has been described as a “trojan horse” by observers for many years. In 2011 leaked audio recordings revealed that PRD candidate for governor of Michoacan Silvano Aureoles had received $2 million from the Knights Templar cartel. In November 2014, the former mayor of Iguala, Mexico, José Luis Abarca, was arrested and subsequently charged in connection to the kidnapping and murder of 43 Mexican students by the Beltrán Leyva cartel.  Abarca, who ordered municipal police to hand the students over to cartel members, was also a PRD member.

AMLO has caused outrage during his campaign by floating the idea of offering amnesty for drug trafficking leadership. He is a member of the Foro de Sâo Paulo, whose members includes states such as Venezuela where the government engages in direct collaboration with trafficking groups like the First Capital Command (Primeiro Comando da Capital or PCC). Economic reforms touted by Obrador also have the convenient effect of assisting cartel business interests. On August 28, 2018, Reuters reported that a document drafted by advisors to Obrador outlined a plan to close off Mexico’s oil and gas reserves to international companies indefinitely. Mexican oil companies such as Pemex report losing over a billion dollars a year to cartel interests, meaning that government attempts to hedge foreign groups out of the oil industry will result in greater control by organized crime over these important business interests.

A government that is firmly in the pocket of criminals alone would give Mexican trafficking syndicates the leverage they need to remain the supplier of 90 to 94% of all heroin consumed in the United States. With weapons of mass destruction in their possession, they could not only dominate Mexico but threaten the United States as well, particularly as relations between the two states have come increasingly to loggerheads over President Donald Trump’s policies concerning immigration, illegal trafficking and border security. Taking adequate measures to degrade the capabilities of the cartels is essential to improve Mexico’s anti-crime operations and ensure US national security.

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Rand Paul Rages At Cory Booker’s Rhetoric, Warns “Someone Is Going To Be Killed”

I fear that there’s going to be an assassination…

I really worry that someone is going to be killed and that those who are ratcheting up the conversation, those who are saying ‘get in their face’ – they have to realize that they bear some responsibility if this elevates to violence.”

Those were the ominous words that Senator Rand Paul spoke during an interview with a Kentucky radio station after a few tense weeks around the Capitol because of the Supreme Court fight.

Specifically taking aim at the rhetoric employed by Sen. Cory Booker, who last July told activists to “get up in the face of some congresspeople,” Paul referenced both his own assault at the hands of a neighbor as well as last year’s baseball field shooting in which Rep. Steve Scalise was wounded to show that “unstable” people can easily take things too far

“These are people that are unstable,” Paul said.

“We don’t want to encourage them. We have to somehow ratchet it down and say we’re not encouraging them that violence is ever OK or ever a reason or a means to try to resolve things.

Listen below (Senator Paul’s comments start at around the 9:40 mark)

“I think what people need to realize is when people like Cory Booker say ‘get up in their face’ — he may think that that’s OK, but what he doesn’t realize is that for about every 1,000 people who might want to get up in your face, one of them is going to be unstable enough to commit violence,” said Paul.

Additionally, as The Daily Caller’s Scott Morefield notes, The Kentucky senator also pointed out the “double standard” when it comes to left and right wing violence.

“If it’s an accusation with no substantiation it’s utterly to be believed,” he said, referencing the allegations against Judge Kavanaugh.

In my case it wasn’t an accusation. I actually was assaulted …and yet the media discounted that completely because they don’t like my politics. So this just shows it’s just about politics. It really isn’t about concern or people wanting to lessen violence.”

As a reminder, The Hill points out  that Paul’s wife, Kelley Paul, wrote an op-ed to Booker in which she appeared to blame him for the threats and protests her husband has faced this past week. Booker’s office argued, in a separate op-ed, that his remarks are being taken out of context and that he “has nothing but respect and admiration” for Paul and his family.

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