Tag: finance

It’s already been an abysmal month for hedge funds, as the Goldman Hedge Fund VIP Index clearly demonstrates…

… having just suffered its worst month on record…

… and with every passing day, it’s only getting worse as hedge funds, forced to deleverage in this chaotic market, are unable to pick a correct side of the market and stay on it.

Consider that according to Nomura’s Charlie McElligott, Monday was fifth worst one-day drawdown for his U.S. Equities Long-Short Hedge Fund model year-to-date, as the now daily shakeout continued in the form of accelerated deleveraging of legacy status quo positioning, i.e., popular shorts/underweights in “Value” and “Quality” ripping higher, while consensual longs overweights in “Growth” and “Momentum” were once again violently reduced.

Commenting on the “extreme and much-discussed” – not to mention 10 years overdue – outperformance of U.S. Equities “Value” over “Growth” yesterday, McEllgiott notes that optically it looked just as much about forced “grossing-down” (selling longs, covering shorts as higher realized volatility dictates VaR-based exposure reduction) as it did about ongoing “end-of-cycle” factor rotation catalysts or macro inputs (i.e. steeper curves benefiting “Value”)

Of note, and what to McElligott was “pretty interesting” was this: even when SPX was +1.4% and at the highs….broad “Value” factor metrics were meaningfully outperforming their “Growth” counterparts (while “1Y Momentum” was outright lower all session); or as he explains “it has been a VERY RARE occurrence to see “Value” to outperform the multi-year leadership regime of “Growth” and “Momentum” in a “gap higher” Equities tape.”

What does this mean according to the Nomura strategist:

“Value” over both “Growth” and “1Y Momentum” has obviously been a feature of the month-to-date landscape, especially as investors were very clearly been re-pricing LOWER their expectations for U.S. economic growth, in conjunction with the “pulling forward” their “end of cycle” timing into 2019

More ominously, and in keeping with what Goldman noted when looking at the VIX curve, this “Value” outperformance over “Growth” is in-line with historical factor leadership data across late-cycle transitions, as investor mentality seemingly pivots from “pre-recession” towards outright “end-of-cycle” / “recession” style rebalancing.

in a recession, outside of “Low Volatility” and “Dividend,” it is “Value” which is the next-best performing factor; conversely, investors do not want to be stuck long “expensive” stocks into the eventual slowdown.

All of the above is bad news for hedge funds: as shown in the chart below, equity hedge fund performance continues to suffer due to legacy positioning effectively being “long high beta” vs “short low beta”, which means that despite cutting net exposure to lows, they still bleed on high “market” exposure:

That said, McElligott believes that “THIS current freak-out is not “the one”—instead, it will be the early-to-mid 2019 event where after the 2nd hike the market “sniffs the slowdown,” the curve powerfully steepens, and we see the “ultimate” risk-off trade (and the “sustainable” Value over Growth” move).” Instead, the current market in my eyes remains a “de-leveraging cleanse” off the back of a Fed “policy error” scare.

Unfortunately, for battered hedge funds – who just saw a spike in redemption requests in September – it doesn’t matter: once their LPs see the latest disastrous performance, the outflows will accelerate forcing even more derisking, deleveraging and debuying.

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Authored by Patrick Buchanan via Buchanan.org,

Saturday, in Pittsburgh, a Sabbath celebration at the Tree of Life synagogue became the site of the largest mass murder of Jews in U.S. history. Eleven worshipers were killed by a racist gunman.

Friday, we learned the identity of the crazed criminal who mailed pipe bombs to a dozen leaders of the Democratic Party, including Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden.

From restaurants to Capitol corridors, this campaign season we have seen ugly face-offs between leftist radicals and Republican senators.

Are we more divided than we have ever been? Are our politics more poisoned? Are we living in what Charles Dickens called “the worst of times” in America? Is today worse than 1968?

Certainly, the hatred and hostility, the bile and bitterness of our discourse, seem greater now than 50 years ago. But are the times really worse?

1968 began with one of the greatest humiliations in the history of the American Navy. The U.S. spy ship Pueblo was hijacked in international waters and its crew interned by North Korea.

A week later came the Tet Offensive, where every provincial capital in South Vietnam was attacked. A thousand U.S. troops died in February, 10,000 more through 1968.

On March 14, anti-war Senator Gene McCarthy captured 42 percent of the vote in New Hampshire against President Johnson.

With LBJ wounded, Robert Kennedy leapt into the race, accusing the president who had enacted civil rights of “dividing the country” and removing himself from “the enduring and generous impulses that are the soul of this nation.” Lyndon Johnson, said Kennedy, is “calling upon the darker impulses of the American spirit.”

Today, RFK is remembered as a “uniter.”

With Gov. George Wallace tearing at Johnson from the right and Kennedy and McCarthy attacking from the left — and Nixon having cleared the Republican field with a landslide in New Hampshire — LBJ announced on March 31 he would not run again.

Four days later, Martin Luther King, leading a strike of garbage workers, was assassinated in Memphis. One hundred U.S. cities exploded in looting, arson and riots. The National Guard was called up everywhere and federal troops rushed to protect Washington, D.C., long corridors of which were gutted, not to be rebuilt for a generation.

Before April’s end, Columbia University had exploded in the worst student uprising of the decade. It was put down only after the NYPD was unleashed on the campus.

Nixon called the Columbia takeover by black and white radicals “the first major skirmish in a revolutionary struggle to seize the universities of this country and transform them into sanctuaries for radicals and vehicles for revolutionary political and social goals.” Which many have since become.

In June, Kennedy, after defeating McCarthy in the crucial primary of California, was mortally wounded in the kitchen of the hotel where he had declared victory. He was buried in Arlington beside JFK.

Nixon, who had swept every primary, was nominated on the first ballot in Miami Beach, and the Democratic Convention was set for late August.

Between the conventions, Soviet Premier Leonid Brezhnev sent his Warsaw Pact armies and hundreds of tanks into Czechoslovakia to crush the peaceful uprising known as “Prague Spring.”

With this bloodiest of military crackdowns since the Hungarian Revolution of 1956, Moscow sent a message to the West: There will be no going back in Europe. Once a Communist state, always a Communist state!

At the Democratic convention in Chicago, the thousands of radicals who had come to raise hell congregated nightly in Grant Park, across from the Hilton where the candidates and this writer were staying.

Baited day and night, the Chicago cops defending the hotel, by late in the week, had had enough. Early one evening, platoons of fresh police arrived and charged into the park clubbing and arresting scores of radicals as the TV cameras rolled. It would be called a “police riot.”

When Sen. Abe Ribicoff took the podium that night, he directed his glare at Mayor Richard J. Daley, accusing him of using “Gestapo tactics in the streets of Chicago.” Daley’s reply from the floor was unprintable.

Through September, Democratic candidate Hubert Humphrey could not speak at a rally without being cursed and shouted down.

Describing the radicals disrupting his every event, Humphrey said, these people “aren’t just hecklers,” but “highly disciplined, well-organized agitators. … Some are anarchists and some of these groups are dedicated to destroying the Democratic Party and destroying the country.”

After his slim victory, Nixon declared that his government would take as its theme the words on a girl’s placard that he had seen in the Ohio town of Deshler: “Bring us together.”

Nixon tried in his first months, but it was not to be.

According to Bryan Burrough, author of “Days of Rage, America’s Radical Underground, the FBI, and the Forgotten Age of Revolutionary Violence,” “During an eighteen month period in 1971 and 1972, the FBI reported more than 2,500 bombings on U.S. soil, nearly 5 a day.”

No, 2018 is not 1968, at least not yet.

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The machines picked up where they left off in the late-day yesterday, levitating stocks and pushing The Dow back into the green. The question is – now what?

Nasdaq remains red on the week despite a liftathon in FANGs

Is another dead-cat’s life about to be lost?

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Thanks to a small downward revision in September’s data, October’s Conference Board consumer confidence data rose to 137.9 (above expectations) – its highest since September 2000.

Current and future expectations both soared in October – despite the equity market collapse…

 

Led by ‘rich’ Americans who have not been more confident since the dot com bubble…

 

The ‘Jobs’ Market is at its strongest since Jan 2001…

Those claiming jobs are “plentiful” increased from 44.1 percent to 45.9 percent, while those claiming jobs are “hard to get” decreased from 14.1 percent to 13.2 percent.

 

Finally we note that the gap between the exuberance of the present situation and future expectations has perhaps started to rollover but is at levels that in the past have triggered a recession (as over-exuberant hope collapses)…

 

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With hedge funds having suffered their longest losing streak on record… (Goldman VIP Basket down 6 weeks in a row, and cratering in October)

It is no surprise that former fund manager and FX trader Richard Breslow noted this morning that “I can’t find anyone who has enjoyed October…”

With both the dollar and gold up most on the month and bonds and stocks lower… as correlations snap across every asset class, either can we.

Via Bloomberg,

We’ve spent a lot of time of late debating why equity markets have struggled so badly in October. Most of the hypotheses, frankly, haven’t been all that helpful. Today, we got a modest bounce in Asia and early U.S. futures trading and people are equally struggling to come up with a unified theory for that… but even that is fading.

Personally, I’m more sympathetic to the view it was news from China’s CSRC on measures meant to encourage more liquidity being pumped into the stock market than some notion that there has been progress on the U.S.-Sino trade front. But if you want to know the real reason, you would be better off chalking it up to randomness.

A quick glance at any of a number of indexes that track hedge fund performance will starkly tell you that the commentators’ debate about why things have moved as they have will most likely elicit the response, “I don’t care, just get me out of here.” It’s Oct. 30 and it would be shocking if many, or any, traders are looking to add risk before month-end. And this attitude could carry right through to the midterm elections. If I told you how they would come out, would you be willing to bet the ranch on how markets will react?

As early-bird U.S. begins to arrive, futures are trading right in the middle of yesterday’s range. And just about every other equity market of note finished or is presently sitting at prices we’ve seen already in this young week. That seems fitting.

Traders need to avoid adding to their woes by seeing fundamentally significant moves behind every algorithmically induced panic. Easier said than done when alpha is hard to come by and liquidity is sparse. Even when reported trading volumes are decent, it doesn’t help when the market is serially all bids then offers. Describing these episodes as markets being risk on versus risk off gives too much credit to what is going on.

As we limp toward November, tentative would be the best way to describe what it looks like out there. Markets have clear biases but are afraid to push the issue. Ironically, that’s not a bad set-up to eventually allow trends to develop. But the timing is unknowable.

On the monthly charts, 10-year Treasury yields look like they want to go up, but they failed rather miserably at the 200-month moving average. It’s now major league resistance and, importantly, confirms a lot of what can be gleaned from much shorter studies. You can be sure traders would love to see what’s above there. Perhaps the caution comes from the fact that monthly support is a decent bit lower than what is suggested by the dailies.

The dollar looks like it’s defiantly pushing northward. I have to say that versus the euro this well advertised 1.13 level is looking less and less formidable. As is August’s year-to-date high in the dollar index. I’m very interested to see how the currency reacts the next time Washington pushes back on its strength. At the moment, it looks like that would be an opportunity rather than a danger for the bulls. Especially when you include emerging markets in the conversation. The MSCI emerging markets currency index sits, with two trading days left to go, just above its very creditable 55-MMA. Of course, I may be getting ahead of myself. A trap easy to fall into.

The only thing one can say about gold, is no one is getting rich trading that at the moment.

As for equities, you have to decide whether the Russell 2000 is a bellwether or not. The other major indexes have bent but haven’t broken. The next two days will matter. A lot of people are watching that SPX 55-week moving average, now in their rear-view mirror, and concluding it’s time to study the trading patterns of 2015/2016.

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Authored by Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Automatic Earth blog,

It’s been quite a while since I first wrote that I resented the MSM (New York Times, Washington Post, CNN, MSNBC etc etc) for effectively monopolizing the entire discussion about Donald Trump. Don’t remember exactly when I wrote that, do remember Jim Kunstler sent a mail and thanked me for saying it. Because he felt- and feels- the same way.

One of the best compilations I’ve ever seen.

It’s a BOMBSHELL. pic.twitter.com/V0oLimbKnT

— Mike (@Fuctupmind) October 29, 2018

The 24/7 daily Trump bashing machine that was unleashed in late 2015/early 2016 meant that people like us had a choice of criticizing Trump where he needed to be criticized, but that would put us in the MSM camp, where we don’t want to be. And we don’t want to not criticize him either, because there’s so much that needs scrutiny.

A third choice would be to not write at all, but hey, we’re writers. And so we’re either Trump-fans, something I’ve been accused of a lot, and I’m sure Jim has too, or we’re Trump haters, depending on what we publish. In reality, of course, we’re neither, but the way the conversation has been built, there’s no neutral ground. You’re either with us or with him.

Today, almost 3 years later, nothing much has changed about this. Other than, as I wrote at a later date, the mass media have become consciously aware that Trump is their money machine. Their financial people started pointing out that posting negative stuff about Trump all the time got them a lot of new readers and viewers and income streams. And so they continued doing it.

Their ‘news’ didn’t have to necessarily be true, or provable, it only had to look as if it could be true, until the next show or article, or the next day. That’s how we got the Russiagate story, which still lacks all evidence. Like a million other narratives, none of which have really gotten anywhere. It doesn’t matter. People who don’t like Trump eat it up. And there’s plenty of those, not in the least because of the picture the MSM has painted. It’s a self-fulfilling prophecy thing.

And today, if you take a good look, you can see that the MSM are stuck. Their entire business model over the past 2.5 years has been built on bashing Trump, and now they have to stick with that. This is how they make their money. If their viewers and readers would understand this, then perhaps some of them would wonder: ‘What am I watching here really?’ But they don’t.

There are some who are simply gullible, there are those who fall victim to information overkill and can’t tell black from white anymore, and then there’s still quite a large group who will never like anything Trump does, no matter what. Because.

But that should never be enough for an organization that purports to report only the news, impartial and objective. You can’t publish stuff solely because you know it will be eaten up and make you money. That’s not the news business, that’s entertainment.

Now, I rarely watch TV. When I’m in Greece, where I’ve spent most of my time the past few years, I see none, other than the odd soccer game at a sports bar. But last weekend I flew to Holland, and there I got to see me some CNN. Oh boy. It was when the first dummy bomb package had been reported, and more of them started to spread.

Nobody knew anything about the ‘bombs’ themselves (we still don’t), about motive, about who sent them, none had gone off, they didn’t know if these things could have gone off, nothing at all. But nevertheless CNN labeled the event: ‘Mass Assassination Attempt’. And then, you know, they have all these time slots to fill, so they all yap and yap as if this is something real that they know something about.

And then at some point Trump called for civility in the nation. And CNN, sadly and predictably, reacted by agreeing with him. Only to follow that up with: “Trump has to become more civil”. Which may or may not be true, but that was not his point and neither is it mine today.

You see, CNN pulled a perfect bait and switch: While demanding that Trump tone it down in response to his own call for civility, they categorically and emphatically denied that their tone, their ‘news reporting’ must come down too. They didn’t just deny it, they entirely ignore the whole issue. Because according to them, all they do is report the news, you know, objective and neutral, no opinions involved.

After bashing Trump for two years+ they react to his call for a more civil tone by …bashing Trump and ignoring their own role completely. The exact opposite. And then they’re surprised that his reaction to being bashed one more time, again, is to point out that they do, in fact, play a role.

CNN et al paint themselves as victims, as the ones being targeted by Trump (and not even by whoever sent the bombs), completely omitting to what extent they themselves were the ones who targeted Trump. CNN is entirely blind to their own role. They proclaim, and really seem to believe, that they speak for the American people.

But if that were true, Trump would not be president. They may speak for part of the American people, but certainly not ‘the people’. And if they continue in their present ways, they never will. As long as the MSM puts all their chips on making money off of the segment of the American population who despise their president, they only sharpen the divide.

Another thing I’ve mentioned before is that with the midterms coming up in a few days, the MSM don’t actually want to impeach Trump, or get rid of him in any other way. They want to continue writing negative stuff about him forever. They want him to maybe lose the midterms, but then to win in 2020. Obama was killing them financially. Now they got their golden goose.

And it’s not Trump who profits from the nation being so divided, or at least not nearly as much as the media does. Trump would like to be appreciated for what he achieves, but when it comes to that, he can’t get a word in edgewise. They can’t risk writing positive stuff about him, it would risk their new business model.

Moreover, after that court ruling that said Trump can’t ban people on Twitter, everyone feels free to call Trump whatever they want, idiot, lunatic, you name it, I even saw Hitler pop up again, and he cannot ban them. Trump is America’s national piñata. While he’s also the President.

And the media say they’re just reporting the news. “Trump calls for civility, but continues his attacks on the media”. Well, the media continue their attacks on him, too. “Trump refuses to acknowledge his rhetoric makes this happen.” So does the MSM rhetoric. “Words Matter”. Indeed, they do. But not only Trump’s words. Everybody’s words.

The MSM have never managed – nor tried- to move beyond the notion that Trump supporters are deplorables. They’re stuck in a time warp. That is what divides the nation. Sarah Sanders was right: the first thing Trump did was to condemn the violence, the first thing CNN did was to blame Trump for it. CNN says that’s not true, they only reported the news. Yeah, 100% objectively.

Let’s do a test: when is the last time CNN, or the WaPo, have said anything truly positive about Trump? And I don’t mean three words strung together, but an actual report on for instance jobs and the state of the economy. When is the last time they complimented him, other than perhaps when American rockets landed in some remote and deserted Syrian sandbox?

So you don’t like Trump. And in the MSM you find voices that express your ideas. What you probably don’t realize is that they amplify those ideas as well, and that’s no coincidence. You’re being used by the MSM to prolong their newly-found very profitable anti-Trump rhetoric business model. You’re an easy victim. All they have to do is confirm your thoughts all the time, and tomorrow you’ll tune in for more, and so on.

Or how about this one: There’s so much to blame Trump for, there are so many negative sides to the man, and then the media focus for a long time on a made-up story about collusion with Russians, for which a special counsel with unlimited budget and resources hasn’t found any proof after two whole years. Doesn’t that make you think? Shouldn’t it?

The MSM’s interest is to divide the country, that’s how they make money. If they would write or broadcast positive stories about Trump, which must exist, they would threaten the dividing line that keeps people from talking to each other. Once they do start talking, Trump-bashing will become much less lucrative. They can’t have that.

You don’t need to be a Trump fan to see that, and I’m definitely not, you need to be blind NOT to see it. You’re being played. And what are you going to do when the GOP wins the midterms, despite what you’ve been told would happen, what if there is no blue wave? Are you going to start talking to the other half of the country then, or are you going to dig deeper into the trenches with the MSM? Honest question.

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Over the weekend we showed a peculiar pattern in the VIX term structure, which failed to normalize after a sharp inversion early in the month, and has since drifted further into negative territory.

This is notable as it was the first time since the financial crisis that the VIX term structure had failed to disinvert before resuming its slide, suggesting that the market is expecting even more pain down the road.

Today, Goldman’s derivatives strategist Rocky Fishman makes a similar observation.

As Fishman notes, looking simply at spot VIX does not reveal anything particularly troubling: while VIX has predictably spiked during the October selloff to the highest closing VIX since February, it has been nowhere near February’s VIX peak: at 25, the VIX is just below Wednesday’s (24-Oct) highest closing level since mid-February in 2018’s second mathematical SPX tail event, “but has not come anywhere near its ETP-fueled February peak of 37 (closing, and 50 intraday).”

In fact, one can argue that the move in spot VIX has been relatively subdued, and as the Goldman strategist points out, 10% sell-offs without the VIX hitting 30 have been historically uncommon, but are not unprecedented.

But as we noted over the weekend, and as Goldman reiterates today, the real action is not in the spot VIX but in the forwards, with Fishman observing that “some longer-dated volatility metrics have now exceeded February’s.”

What is particularly notable, is that the market appears to be pricing in a longer-duration high volatility period than they did in Q1 “consistent with a view that this sell-off is driven more by reduced economic growth expectations than market technicals.” In realized terms, Goldman brings attention to the 140bp median daily absolute SPX return over the last three weeks which has been higher than seen over any period in Q1 (though 15-day realized volatility was higher in Feb due to the outsized impact of 5-Feb’s 4.1% selloff).

The best way to see this is by looking at 3-6 month VIX futures which are now above Q1 highs: this suggests that expectations of volatility a few months into the future are now higher than they were in February.

Similarly, 6-month, 6-month forward-starting SPX variance (expectation of 6M variance, 6M from now), is near its March high, as traders brace for a longer period of turmoil than they did at the start of the year.

Finally, when looking at shorter-dated implied vol, Goldman points out that while it is very high, it is the result of recent market turmoil and not because of next week’s US elections. Fishman points to the 9-day VIX index which is at 31, just below Wednesday’s (24-Oct) highest level since the week of 5-Feb, and notes that the index is derived from the prices of options expiring this Friday (2-Nov) and next Friday (9-Nov); the pre-elections 2-Nov has a much higher at-the-money implied vol (31) than the post-elections expiration (27), “implying more fear over a continuation of recent volatility than an event-driven shock next week.“

To summarize: while the spot VIX may not indicate a panic, and remains well below the record high levels hit during the February selloff, which was largely a function of inverse VIX ETFs blowing up and forced to bid VIX to stratospheric levels, an even which was promptly cleared out once several inverse VIX providers blew up, what is more concerning this time is that the market is now hinting that the slow grind higher in volatility could be more pernicious as it extends for far longer than the market turmoil experienced at the start of the year. And with the S&P already in de fact correction, one wonders if the long-overdue bear market isn’t finally on deck.

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Amid the collapse on US home sales, as mortgage rates surge above 5.00%, August’s Case-Shiller home price data plunged to its weakest annual growth since Dec 2016, dramatically missing expectations).

Against expectations of a 5.80% YoY rise, August home prices rose 5.49% (slowing from July’s 5.90% YoY) to its weakest since Dec 2016…

This is the biggest two-month slowdown in Case-Shiller home price growth since 2014…

On a non-seasonally-adjusted basis, home prices rose 5.77%, down from 5.99%, the lowest since June 2017.

 

Is it any surprise that homebuilder stocks have collapsed along with US housing data?

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After another round of discouraging US-China trade headlines on Monday hammered US stocks further into the red for the year, President Trump chimed in on Twitter early Tuesday to offer a new narrative to explain the “shocktober” selloff. Shifting his criticism away from the Federal Reserve, Trump noted that “the Stock Market is up massively” since the 2016 election, and assured nervous retail investors that stocks were merely “taking a pause” ahead of the Nov. 6 midterm vote.

But if Democrats win, investors will have good reason to panic, as the they pursue their “Venezuela” agenda of unwinding the Trump tax cuts (which have been credited for helping goose corporate earnings, helping to power the rally in 2018) and opening America’s borders.

The Stock Market is up massively since the Election, but is now taking a little pause – people want to see what happens with the Midterms. If you want your Stocks to go down, I strongly suggest voting Democrat. They like the Venezuela financial model, High Taxes & Open Borders!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 30, 2018

Trump has a point here, as most analysts would attest. If Democrats retake both the House and the Senate (which is, to be fair, an unlikely scenario given the number of red state Democratic senators up for reelection) they would almost certainly attempt to unwind the fiscal stimulus that has, in theory at least, helped drive the rally. But, realistically, Trump is probably screwed either way. Because, even as Trump’s criticisms have inspired the market to shift its expectations for the course of Fed rate hikes, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is apparently determined to move ahead with Fed hikes. Meanwhile, the unwinding of the Fed’s balance sheet continues unabated, as Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson pointed out on Monday.

And, in what was an unprecedented move for Trump – whose fondness for quoting economic data and market stats has been well documented since his inauguration – Trump again acknowledged the problem posed by the Fed in a second tweet where he quoted Wells Fargo analyst Scott Wren, who recently published a research note predicting that S&P 500 could rebound back to the record-highs above 2,900 if the Fed would start talking “a little more dovish.”

“If the Fed backs off and starts talking a little more Dovish, I think we’re going to be right back to our 2,800 to 2,900 target range that we’ve had for the S&P 500.” Scott Wren, Wells Fargo.

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 30, 2018

As Mick Mulvaney and Larry Kudlow have both argued in their defenses of the president’s angry rhetoric toward the “politically impartial” Fed, it seems the president’s anger is justified.

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