In Tweetstorm, Trump Denies Knowing Woman Who Accused Him Of Forced Kissing

President Trump’s raging weekend tweetstorm metastasized into a non-stop fusillade of angry outbursts on Tuesday as he lashed out at many of his favorite targets this morning, including his predecessor, former President Barack Obama, and Robert Mueller’s ongoing probe into possible collusion between Russia and the Trump campaign..

He also thanked Fox & Friends – long rumored to be the president’s favorite news show – for a report they did on the Obama administration’s failures to counter Russian interference…

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trump also lashed out a the Pennsylvania Supreme Court, which recently rejected a Republican-approved legislative redistricting map on the grounds that it was improperly gerrymandered. Trump exhorted Pennsylvanians to challenge that decision “all the way to the Supreme Court,” adding that the “original was correct.”

 

But perhaps the highlight of the morning was when the president took a minute to deny a story that ran on the front page of Tuesday’s Washington Post. The story quoted a woman who accused the president of forcibly kissing her in the lobby of Trump Tower 12 years ago. Trump denied he’d ever met the woman.

Trump then questioned why WaPo doesn’t report on allegations that some of his accusers were reportedly paid to make their allegations. Trump even suggested that one had her mortgage paid off…

 

The woman, Rachel Crooks, first described her story to the New York Times several months before the 2016 election. The “famous incident” as her friends call it, allegedly happened in January 2006 – when she was 22 – and working as a secretary for the Bayrock Group, another company that rented space in Trump Tower, and reportedly had some business ties with Trump.

Bayrock

Crooks is one of 19 women who have accused Trump of varying degrees of misconduct.

Her profile in the Post coincided with her announcement that she’s running for a seat in the Ohio State Legislature. Trump argued that pulling off a “two-minute” unwanted kiss like that in the middle of the Trump Tower lobby with security and everybody watching would’ve been impossible.

This isn’t the first time Crooks discussed the alleged incident. Citing a Fox News report from December, Trump questioned in a subsequent Twitter post why the Washington Post isn’t more focused on past false accusations. However, the story Trump appears to be referring to was a story from The Hill that reports that a women’s rights lawyer, Lisa Bloom, allegedly sought compensation for women who accused Trump of sexual misconduct.

 

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CNN Roots Through Russian Garbage, Gets Tossed Out Of Russian “Troll Farm”

Following Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s indictment of 13 Russian nationals on Friday for (unsuccessfully) attempting to influence the 2016 presidential election, CNN sent one of its most intrepid reporters to the St. Petersburg “troll farm” uncovered by Mueller’s ever-widening and totally legitimate investigation. 

Chief International Correspondent Matthew Chance (had his cameraman) literally dig through the garbage outside of an office building which is home to the alleged Russian troll farm for clues. 

“This is the office in which that atmosphere of chaos was stoked from the Russian side,” Chance told guest host Jim Sciutto. “That’s why 13 Russian individuals, including the financial benefactor, the person who bankrolls that organization, have now been indicted in the United States.”

“You looked through the trash there?” Sciutto asked. “What did you find?”

“Yes, we did,” Chance answered, sheepishly. “We came here expecting this office to be empty, but, in fact, all day here, we’ve been here throughout the course of the day, people have been going in and out.”

“We went to the trash can to see what we could find with old people dumping rubbish there. New computers are being delivered here and they are throwing it away with the rubbish.”

Later, Chance spoke with an actual Russian troll – who appears to be about 250 lbs underweight for his alleged profession, who blew smoke in his face. When the CNN crew attempted to then enter the “troll farm” they were promptly told to leave.

 

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Gun-Control Advocates Are Now Arguing Against Safety Measures For Children

Authored by Ryan McMaken via The Mises Institute,

An odd thing has happened. Advocates for gun control have actually begun arguing against practical measures addressing school security. Rather than take strategies that can be implemented virtually immediately, and which address the dangers in a specific place in a common-sense way, gun control advocates would rather focus on a political victory at some point in the future and continue to leave schools without proper security measures. 

The general argument is that any effort at meaningful security is unacceptable because it turns schools into “fortresses.”

Numerous examples of this line of reasoning can be found on Twitter. They are often remarkably similar in message which is “forget school security, just ban guns!”

Ah yes, the “ban guns” solution. It certainly worked in Latin America. And, of course, as soon as they’re banned, everyone will immediately turn theirs in to the authorities and no one will have them anymore. Security of any sort will immediately and forever be rendered unnecessary. At least, this is how the thinking goes. 

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Others are filled with reasons why security is useless. They point out that Columbine High School had security cameras, and this therefore proves that all security measures have no effect. 

Gun control advocates in social media have also begun passing around this article (by Bryan Warnick, Benjamin Johnson, and Sam Rocha) titled “Why security measures won’t stop school shootings.” The article, however, only briefly asserts (without argumentation) that that security won’t work and barely touches on the tactics of so-called “target hardening.” Most of the article is actually devoted to a sociological discussion of how a kinder, gentler, school environment will make school shootings less likely. It looks more at the effects of security on student attitudes. Not even the article’s sources much support the theory that greater security makes a school more “scary.” A prominently cited-study within the article, called “Predicting Perceptions of Fear at School and Going to and From School for African American and White Students” does not support the idea. Indeed, the study found that when security is applied “aggressively,” within the school, students report feeling less fearful.

But, the overall strategy here is startling. Gun control advocates are in a way holding school children hostage to their message by shooting down calls for better school security. Their essential position is “no security for children until we get the gun control legislation we want!”

Security at Theme Parks

Most of the talk about schools being turned into dreary “fortresses” is pure sentimentalism, of course. But, it’s the sort of thing we should expect from panic-prone Americans, many of whom routinely overestimate the threats to their safety

Meanwhile, many responsible owners of private facilities — i.e., not public schools — have already implemented just the sort of security measures that anti-security advocates now denounce as measures that turn schools into “prisons.” 

Disney theme parks in California, for example, implemented metal detectors in 2015. Orlando theme parks, including Sea World, and the Universal Parks have implemented metal detectors and other security measures as well. 

The theme parks have implemented just the sort of security that we’re told turns the place into a “fortress” and will make everyone feel as if he is in inside “a prison.” But, the park owners want greater security lest they are subject to lawsuits that might result from a mass-shooter situation. Theme parks — especially Disney — are famous for keeping security unobtrusive, but it is most certainly present. At the same time, theme park owners are motivated to make security as pleasant an experience as possible. This is why security personnel is trained to be friendly and professional. 

Meanwhile, Disney reported a 13% increase in theme park revenue in 2017. It seems that the “fortress” isn’t keeping all that many visitors away.

Security at a State Legislature

Theme parks aren’t the only places where security is done better than at public schools.

Early in my career, I was a lobbyist at the Colorado state capitol in Denver. Prior to 2007 — except for a short period following the 9/11 attacks in New York and Washington — the building had unrestricted access, with on-site, armed security. 

In 2007, a man armed with a handgun entered the building and threatened personnel in and around the governor’s office. He was shot dead by on-site security. Building access was heavily restricted after that. 

Nowadays, all visitors must go through a basic security screening unless they are members of the legislature, or are pre-approved personnel subjected to background checks. Hundreds of people pass through the building each day. 

But, even those of us who had go through the screening would enter and exit the building multiple times per day. This meant going back through the screening. It was marginally inconvenient, and we questioned the need given the presence of on-site security personnel. But in general, it wasn’t a big deal. 

Moreover, school kids regularly visited the building for field trips. They moved freely and exuberantly through the building. They sat in the gallery. They noisily ate their lunches in the rotunda. 

And yet, the “experts” would have us believe that by merely being in a building with armed security the children were in fact being tormented psychologically, having been given the message that the building was, to use the words of Warnick, et al, a “scary, dangerous and violent place.” In reality, none of us who worked in the building daily cared anything at all about the presence of the guards. I certainly never hesitated to invite family members there.

It’s a Matter of Priorities

For places like amusement parks, concert venues, city halls, county courthouses, state legislatures — and of course — the US capitol, security measures have already been implemented. Is there evidence that everyone working in these building regards them as “prisons”? After all, the private owners — people who are potentially liable for violence on their premises — want security, and you hear few of them resort to a knee-jerk declaration of “it won’t work!”  when their lawyers and stockholders advise them to implement security solutions. 

Indeed, what we often hear as a objections to “security” are really just objections to the incompetence and unpleasantness of public schools. We’re told that greater security at schools will encourage more abuse of student rights via random searches, drug tests, and aggressively unpleasant encounters with security personnel. 

In other words, we’re being warned that public-school security reflects the quality of public schools in general. If greater security automatically leads to abusive behavior by security, then why do we not see this behavior at the Magic Kingdom or at baseball stadium? The answer lies in how public schools function. 

Those places that actually value the safety and quality-of-experience for the people present have a much different attitude about security than public schools do. And, no doubt, part of the reason that public schools and their supporters can continue to get away with their dismissive attitude toward real security is because no matter how many shooting take place on school property, the schools are never held legally accountable. It’s much easier for the counties and the school boards to shrug and say “there’s not enough money.” 

But why is the security experience at some non-school government facilities so much better than at public schools? The answer lies in the fact that schools simply aren’t a public-policy priority. The grown-up lobbyists and politicians and other visitors who must visit a legislature will complain bitterly, and possibly even sue, if treated the way public-school children are treated. They also demand real security that they can see for themselves. Thus, meaningful yet unobtrusive measure are implemented — even if they are costly. The attitude for public schools is quite different. For them, the plan is to slap up a few security cameras or hire a tiny handful of ill-tempered, unprofessional security personnel poorly trained in dealing with students. 

Those who oppose security will continue to claim it can’t work. Outside the tiny echo-chamber of public-school thinking, though, practical security measures are already common and the results have been nothing like we associate with school security. Perhaps there’s a reason why the public schools, and not theme parks, continue to be primary targets for homicidal maniacs. 

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Meet the Italian government’s Orwellian new automated tax snitch

By the end of the 3rd century AD, the finances of ancient Rome were in terminal crisis.

Years and years of debasing the currency had resulted in severe hyperinflation– a period of Roman history known as the Crisis of the Third Century (from AD 235 through AD 284).

During the time of Julius Caesar, for example, the Roman silver denarius coin was nearly 98% pure silver.

Two centuries later in the mid-100s AD, the silver content had fallen to 83.5%.

And by the late 200s AD, the silver content in the denarius was just 5%.

As the money continued to be devalued, prices across the Empire skyrocketed.

Wheat, for example, rose in price by over 4,000% during the first three decades of the third century.

Rome was on the brink of collapse. And when Emperor Diocletian came to power at the end of the third century, he tried to stabilize the economy with his ill-fated Edict on Wages and Prices.

Diocletian’s infamous decree fixed the price of everything in the Empire. Food. Lumber. Salaries. Everything.

And anyone caught violating the prices set forth in his edict would be put to death.

Another one of Diocletian’s major policies was reforming the Roman tax system.

He mandated widespread census reports to determine precisely how much wealth and property each citizen had.

They counted every parcel of land, every piece of livestock, every bushel of wheat, and demanded from the population increasing amounts of tribute.

And anyone found violating this debilitating tax policy was punished with– you guessed it– the death penalty.

Needless to say, Diocletian’s reforms didn’t work.

Every high school economics student knows that wage and price controls don’t work… and that excessive taxation bankrupts the population.

But that doesn’t stop governments from trying the same tactics over and over again.

Fast forward about seventeen centuries and Italy is once again in the same boat.

The Italian government is one of the most bankrupt in the world; its debt level is an unbelievable 132% of GDP– and rising.

In other words, the Italian government’s debt is substantially larger than the value of the entire Italian economy.

It’s almost as bad as Greece, and it grows worse each year as the national government routinely runs budget deficits.

Their only solution, of course, is hiking taxes and increasing regulation… exactly the opposite of what they should be doing.

And, just like the ancient Romans, the government is on a witch hunt for anyone they think (in their sole discretion) might be dodging taxes.

They already have a system in place called the redditometro, an automated tool for the tax authorities to comb through income and expense records of Italian residents.

The algorithm finds anyone whose expenses were higher than his/her income and presumes that s/he has been evading taxes.

The irony here is pretty profound given that the Italian government itself has expenses that are higher than its income.

After all, that’s how it ended up with such a prodigious debt level.

Earlier this month, however, the Italian tax authorities rolled out a brand new tool called risparmiometro. And this one is really insidious.

Risparmiometro goes through ALL financial records– credit card transactions, bank accounts, investment accounts, etc. to determine whether or not someone has too much savings relative to his/her occuption.

Think of the implication.

Under the redditometro system, if you spend too much money, they think you’re evading taxes.

But under the risparmiometro system, if you save too much money, they think you’re evading taxes.

Unbelievable.

But it gets better.

Risparmiometro (the new tool) also looks at bank activity to see how frequently you’re using the account.

And if you’re not using the account frequently enough, the government assumes that it’s because you’re dealing in cash… and evading taxes.

I have no doubt that there’s a substantial amount of tax evasion in Italy.

I spend several weeks in the country every summer, and I see how much people and businesses are suffering.

And they’re definitely coming up with creative ways to survive.

But rather than take the necessary steps to liberate the economy, the government continues to double down on more taxes and more regulation… and then invest their remaining energy to develop new tools to spy on their citizens.

Two key points here:

1) Nearly ALL bankrupt governments invariable resort to this tactic at some point.

2) It’s also a great way to engineer a banking crisis.

Think about it– Italy’s banks are already teetering on collapse. Some have already failed, others are almost there.

If Italians know that the government is spying on every transaction they make (or don’t make), who in his/her right mind would want to keep money in an Italian bank?

Anyone with half a brain will be moving funds to Switzerland or Austria.

Italy’s banks are so fragile, though, that they won’t be able to survive if even a small percentage of their depositors flee.

So as the Italian government rolls out this new tool in the latest campaign of its tax jihad, they’re all but guaranteeing widespread bank failure.

It’s genius.

Source

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Dollar Doldrums, Market Mood-Swings, And “Grumpy Old Men”

US equity markets are down triple-digits this morning after the long weekend, the dollar is higher (having erased the post-CPI dump), and so are Treasury yields, but as former fund manager Richard Breslow notes, the world does not appear to be careening towards the cliff’s edge as he notes ” investors and central bankers are realizing anew that two-way markets don’t have to necessarily be metaphors for out-of-control train wrecks that will plunge the global economy into havoc.

Via Bloomberg,

Today has a distinctly upbeat feel to it. That’s rare enough, so I’m going to enjoy it while it lasts. Or for the next hour, whichever is longer. Equity markets have been moving around, but the action isn’t couched in dire terms every time there has been a dip. The coming bond auction deluge is being discussed in terms of appropriate concessions rather than who’s going to want all of this stuff.

The dollar is having a good start to its day and, even if most think it’s some sort of counter-trend rally, it just doesn’t feel right somehow to focus here and now on the long-term implications of the twin deficits. I’ve yet to read a new article suggesting USD/JPY at 100 is coming soon to screens near you.

The Bloomberg commodity index, after quite an impressive rally last week, is now back into very familiar territory. Perhaps to a level that both importers and exporters can live and thrive with. Even gold looks like traders have decided the world may be an unstable place but levels approaching $1,400/oz represent a degree of anxiety we’re just not feeling.

This really does feel like a moment worth savoring, because I don’t have to try very hard to find people only too happy to assure me that the good vibes won’t last. Yields too high, equity multiples that won’t keep up, political instability. Potential bummers all. For my money, good things, as well as bad, run in multiples and I wouldn’t be the least surprised if a long-lost friend just happened to return from some journey to the far-flung reaches of the world.

So why the mood swings? I have a theory. The stock market had a real rough start to the month and the world didn’t fall apart. It wasn’t so much that the dip, such as it was in retrospect, was bought, but for the first time in way too long, investors and central bankers are realizing anew that two-way markets don’t have to necessarily be metaphors for out-of-control train wrecks that will plunge the global economy into havoc. We have volatility to thank for this dose of reality. Stocks are down today. They could even be down tomorrow. That doesn’t mean we have to gather round and wail about what the authorities must do about it. And it shouldn’t be lost on people that the NFC did take the Super Bowl.

There are going to be a record amount of bonds sold this week. Yields are getting near 3%. There are a lot more people debating whether this level is a great buy or the start of the global reflation than whether the economy can handle the shock. So far the only outrage, beyond feigned, is how little of the rate increases have shown up in savings account balances. But there’s been no holding back small business optimism.

As for the dollar, just ask yourself why it has been so weak. There’s no shortage of narratives which include global growth and other central banks playing catch-up. Those are positives. The U.S. can be raising rates and growing and still have a weakening currency. We’ll see if those opposing trends can continue to coexist. Actually, if I were short dollars, I’d feel more comfortable with the reserve diversification and geopolitical arguments because those at least have a better chance of sustaining themselves for the long-haul.

This has been declared a “no grumpy old men” morning.

Or maybe it’s the optimism of feeling youthful again as markets are desperately trying to act like they did when we were young and didn’t know any better.

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Wal-Mart Crashes To Key Technical Support

Wal-Mart shares have extended their pre-open decline, crashing almost 10% and testing its 100-day moving-average for the first time since October 2017.

This is the biggest drop for the giant retailer since it warned on sales outlook in October 2015 and the biggest earnings-day gap down in 17 years…

 

 

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Syrian Fighters Enter Afrin; Turkey Retaliates With Immediate Bombing Sending Turkish Lira, Stocks Tumbling

As we reported yesterday, in a surprising twist in the ongoing Syrian proxy war, YPG Kurdish fighters in north-western Syria – who are backed by the US – had struck a deal with the Russia-backed Assad regime for Syrian forces to enter the Afrin region and repel a Turkish offensive which began last month.

Badran Jia Kurd, an advisor to the Kurdish-led administration in northern Syria told Reuters that Syrian troops will deploy along several border positions and could enter the region within the next two days: “we can cooperate with any side that lends us a helping hand in light of the barbaric crimes and the international silence,” Jia Kurd said.

We didn’t have long to wait for this escalation to unfold, and moments ago a convoy of fighters waving Syrian flags entered the northern Kurdish-held region of Afrin, which Turkey is targeting in a cross-border operation, according to footage on Syrian state TV shows.

The pro-government fighters were filmed entering the village of Nubul in some 20 pickup trucks.  As Bloomberg adds, Rami Abdurrahman, head of the U.K.-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which monitors the war through activists on the ground, also confirmed the movement.

Meanwhile, in response to yesterday’s news of the odd alliance, Turkish officials warned that their forces would lay siege to the city of Afrin if pro-Damascus fighters show up there. That warning, too, was effected with headlines reporting that Turkish jets are now bombing the area where the pro-Syria convoy entered the fight against Turkey:

*TURKISH JETS BOMBING AREA WHERE PRO-SYRIA CONVOY ENTERED: HT

While Citi notes that “as the situation is developing, there is no way of telling what will happen next” the market has already taken action, and in response both Turkish stocks and the Turkish lira have tumbled, sliding 0.8% to session lows against the dollar…

… while Turkish equities are down 2%; the world now awaits for the reaction, if any, from Russia and Iran, and whether these two protectors of Syria’s president will get directly involved.

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Do You Believe In BLS Unicorns?

Authored by Jim Quinn via The Burning Platform blog,

The chart below says there has been 55.6% inflation over the last 20 years. That is just less than a 2.4% annual level of inflation.

What a load of bullshit. Let’s look at a couple of categories listed below and do a smell test. Everyone knows the prices of TVs have fallen dramatically, but 99% – I don’t think so. I was able to find the price of a 28 inch Samsung TV in 1997 – $750. The same size Samsung TV costs $200 today. That’s a 73% decrease. The good old BLS says the decrease is really 99% because the new TV does so much more. They call this a hedonic adjustment.

It gets better. The BLS shows the cost of housing up about 56% over the last 20 years. Here are a couple indisputable facts from the same government peddling this inflation drivel. The average new home cost $175,000 in 1997. The average new home in 2017 cost $380,000. For the math challenged, that is a 117% increase. The average monthly rent in 1997 was $576. In 2017 it was $1,021. That is a 77% increase. Housing is the biggest weighting in the CPI calculation. Since using actual cost increases would show at least a 90% increase in housing, the BLS drones created a fake calculation called owners equivalent rent which no one can question.

That’s how you fake housing inflation.

And now for the funniest bullshit of them all.

According to these fake news aficionados, the cost of a new car has not gone up by one dime in the last 20 years. It seems there is some non-government data that says otherwise. The average price of a new car in 1997 was $19,214. The average price of a new car in 2017 was $33,560. Does that strike you as a 0% increase? The actual increase for the average schmuck living in the real world has been 75%. But those good old hedonic adjustments get you back to 0%. Those heated seats for your ass and those deluxe cupholders made your drive to work $14,000 cheaper, according to the BLS.

The absurdity of this crap is almost beyond comprehension. The CPI is nothing but fake data disguised to make you think you haven’t been reamed up the ass for the last 20 years by the actual Federal Reserve created inflation exceeding 5% per year.

The Deep State counts on a dumbed down, math illiterate populace to believe this crap because it comes from the government.

Anyone who believes this bullshit is willfully ignorant  or just a plain dumbass.

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Dollar, Bond Yields Drop As Mueller Unveils New Charges In Russia Probe

Just days after he announced charges against 13 Russian nationals and 3 Russian entities for their role in meddling in the US election, Special Counsel Robert Mueller has secured yet another indictment in his probe into whether the Trump campaign colluded with Russia to sway the US election.

This time, the grand jury approved charges against Alex Van Der Zwaan, who is accused of knowingly giving “false, fictitious or fraudulent” statements to the FBI. Van Der Zwaan reportedly lied about his discussions with former Paul Manafort No. 2 Rick Gates, who has recently decided to cooperate with the probe. Bloomberg described Zwaan as “an attorney for a prominent New York law firm” – the firm is Skadden Arps – who was charged with “making false statements to the FBI as part of Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s probe of Russian collusion in the 2016 presidential election.”

Van Der Zwaan was charged on Feb. 16 in federal court in Washington related to a report he helped prepare on the trial of a Ukrainian politician, Yulia Tymoshenko. Van Der Zwaan was charged with a criminal information, which typically precedes a guilty plea.

One twitter user pointed out that Van Der Zwaan is the nephew of a Russian oligarch…

 

 

 

Both the US dollar and Treasury yields jerked lower on the news…

Chart

Read the full indictment below:

 

Indictment

 

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Historic Market Test On Deck: Record $179 Billion In Treasurys For Sale Today

As noted earlier, bonds fell and the dollar rose as Wall Street turned its attention to today’s – and this week’s – record bond supply – which as Goldman explained over the weekend , is just the start as the US set offs on an “unsustainable” increase in debt, and which this week consists of an unprecedented amount of 4-Week, 3- and 6-Month Bill issuance, as well as 2, 5, 7 and FRN notes to boot.

Today’s selloff was driven by 2Y Treasuries which rose as high as 2.2436%, the highest level since just before the Lehman bankruptcy, while the eurodollar curve steepened too. Yields on 10Y bond rose to 2.93% earlier before fading half of the move.

Commenting on the sharp moves in yields, last week Jeff Gundlach noted that “UST 2 yr, 3 yr, 5 yr, 7 yr & now 10 yr yields all rising  >200 bp annual rate since 9/7/17. Faster than Fed hiking.

As explained last night, the Treasury will sell 3-month bills worth $51 billion and 6-month bills for $45 billion, both unprecedented in their size, with a historic total of $179 billion in bills and notes for sale today:

  • 11:30am: U.S. to Sell $51BN 3-Month Bills
  • 11:30am: U.S. to Sell $45BN 6-Month Bills
  • 1pm: U.S. to Sell $55BN 4-Week Bills
  • 1pm: U.S. to Sell $28BN 2-Year Notes

In sum, total issuance this week is expected to hit a record$258 billion.

As Bloomberg observes, the glut in supply follows the passing of a two-year budget deal on Feb. 9 that raises government spending by nearly $300 billion. And, as Goldman and others have warned, investors will now brace themselves for a deluge of issuance over the coming months and years as President Donald Trump’s fiscal stimulus seeks trillions in debt to boost growth; if it fails US deficits are set to soar according to John Davies, a U.S. interest-rate strategist at Standard Chartered Plc.

“The market is setting up for the T-bill and two-year auctions due today, with two-year floating rate notes, five-year and seven-year Treasuries still to come this week,” Davies said.

“The immediate question is what level of yields will be required for that additional supply to be digested, and of course beyond that how the deficit will actually develop.”

We will have the first answer as soon as 11:30am ET when $96BN in 3- and 6-Month bills are sold in what could be the start of biggest bond market test in history.

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