Tag: finance

It was just over a year ago that James Comey boldly consolidated the roles of investigator, lawyer, judge and jury when he announced that, although Hillary was “extremely careless” in her mishandling of classified State Department emails, no reasonable prosecutor would be willing to bring charges against her. 

The decision sparked national outrage, particularly since it came just a few days after Bill Clinton happened to be spotted by a local reporter meeting privately with then Attorney General Loretta Lynch on a tarmac in Phoenix.  Combine that with Comey’s admission under oath that Loretta Lynch clearly attempted to interfere in the FBI’s investigation and it all wreaked of just another Clinton coverup…said another way, just a bunch of Republicans trying to “criminalize things that are normal.”

Be that as it may, at least one attorney, Ty Clevenger of New York, has been working diligently to make sure that Hillary and various members of her staff face at least some consequences for their alleged crimes which range from perjury under oath to willful destruction of evidence protected by a Congressional subpoena (see: The “Oh Shit” Moment: Hillary Wiped Her Server With BleachBit Despite Subpoena), among many others. We noted the efforts of Clevenger to get Hillary disbarred in the state of Arkansas back in June in a post entitled “Hillary Not “Out Of The Woods”: Arkansas Bar Considers Disciplinary Action Over Email Scandal.”

Alas, it seems as though Clevenger’s pursuit of Hillary has been has been held up by the FBI for a rather curious reason, namely a “lack of public interest.”  As the Washington Times points out, after filing a FOIA request for Hillary documents with the FBI, Clevenger received the following emailed response:

“You have not sufficiently demonstrated that the public’s interest in disclosure outweighs personal privacy interests of the subject,” FBI records management section chief David M. Hardy told Mr. Clevenger in a letter Monday.

 

“It is incumbent upon the requester to provide documentation regarding the public’s interest in the operations and activities of the government before records can be processed pursuant to the FOIA,” Mr. Hardy wrote.

Dear FBI, on behalf of Mr. Clevenger, please allow us to submit Exhibit A regarding the public’s interest in this and all future FOIA requests regarding Mrs. Clinton’s records…there are roughly 63mm people (and probably a couple of Democrats as well) who are very eager to learn anything you might have to disclose regarding Hillary’s alleged transgressions.

via http://ift.tt/2wQCJtf Tyler Durden

Just when it seemed that a full day may pass without some diplomatic fiasco between North Korea and the US sending stocks surging on rising risks of World War III, moments ago North Korea’s state-run news agency KCNA issued a statement quoting Kim Jong Un, who said that “the current ballistic rocket launching drill like a real war is the first step of the military operation of the KPA in the Pacific and a meaningful prelude to containing Guam” and added the necessity to “positively push forward the work for putting the strategic force on a modern basis by conducting more ballistic rocket launching drills with the Pacific as a target in the future.“

KCNA also reported that Kim was present during yesterday’s launch and that “involved in the drill were Hwasong artillery units of the KPA Strategic Force tasked with striking the bases of the U.S. imperialist aggressor forces located in the Pacific operational theater in contingency and intermediate-range strategic ballistic rocket Hwasong-12.”

Kim Jong Un, chairman of the Workers’ Party of Korea, chairman of the State Affairs Commission of the DPRK and supreme commander of the Korean People’s Army, guided an intermediate-range strategic ballistic rocket launching drill of the KPA Strategic Force on the spot.

KCNA also reported that the intermediate-range strategic ballistic rocket launch drill “was conducted as a part of the muscle-flexing to counter the Ulji Freedom Guardian joint military drills the U.S. and the south Korean puppet forces finally kicked off in disregard of the DPRK’s meaningful and crucial warning.“

The news agency also adds that the launched ballistic missile, “crossed the sky above Oshima peninsula of Hokkaido and Cape Erimo of Japan along the preset flight track and accurately hit the preset target waters in northern Pacific” even though “the drill had no impact on the security of the neighboring countries.”

The statement also warned that the DPRK has learned to “show action, not talk, to the U.S. imprudently denying the DPRK’s initiative measure for easing the extreme tension”, Kim Jong Un stressed that the DPRK “will continue to watch the U.S. demeanors as already declared and decide its future action according to them.”

It is unclear how high futures will surge on the news that last night’s missile launch is just the first of many more.

Full KCNA statement below:

 

Kim Jong Un Guides Strategic Ballistic Rocket Launching Drill of KPA Strategic Force

 

Pyongyang, August 30 (KCNA) — Kim Jong Un, chairman of the Workers’ Party of Korea, chairman of the State Affairs Commission of the DPRK and supreme commander of the Korean People’s Army, guided an intermediate-range strategic ballistic rocket launching drill of the KPA Strategic Force on the spot.

 

The drill was observed by senior officials of the Central Committee of the WPK including Ri Pyong Chol, Kim Jong Sik, Jo Yong Won and Yu Jin, and officials in the field of defence scientific research including Jang Chang Ha and Jon Il Ho.

 

Respected Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un was greeted by commanding officers of the KPA Strategic Force including its General Kim Rak Gyom, commander of the KPA Strategic Force.

 

Involved in the drill were Hwasong artillery units of the KPA Strategic Force tasked with striking the bases of the U.S. imperialist aggressor forces located in the Pacific operational theater in contingency and intermediate-range strategic ballistic rocket Hwasong-12.

 

As known to the world, the intermediate-range strategic ballistic rocket launching drill of the KPA Strategic Force was conducted as a part of the muscle-flexing to counter the Ulji Freedom Guardian joint military drills the U.S. and the south Korean puppet forces finally kicked off in disregard of the DPRK’s meaningful and crucial warning.

 

The drill was carried out through the combination of sudden maneuvers and strike in order to estimate and examine the posture of the KPA Strategic Force for prompt counteraction in contingency on the Korean peninsula and to confirm the actual war operation capacity of the intermediate-range strategic ballistic rocket newly equipped with by it.

 

The Hwasong artillery personnel, who were to conduct the launching drill for the first time in the capital city of the DPRK by order of Kim Jong Un, were all filled with strong militant enthusiasm.

 

Kim Jong Un arrived at the launching ground early at dawn and watched the artillerymen promptly moving and deploying the Hwasong-12 rocket launcher, praising them for their smart and accurate movement.

 

He learned in detail about the launch plan, preset flight track and target waters and issued an order to launch the rocket.

 

The fired ballistic rocket reflecting the dignity and might of the Juche-based nuclear power crossed the sky above Oshima peninsula of Hokkaido and Cape Erimo of Japan along the preset flight track and accurately hit the preset target waters in northern Pacific.

 

The drill had no impact on the security of the neighboring countries.

 

In the drill the rocket operational capacity of the Hwasong artillery units of the KPA Strategic Force for an actual war and the combat efficiency of the newly equipped intermediate-range strategic ballistic rocket were all proved perfect.

 

Kim Jong Un expressed great satisfaction over the successful launching.

 

Praising the Hwasong artillerymen of the Strategic Force for being well versed in the newly equipped ultra-modern rocket system and properly operating it, he said the drill would offer them an opportunity for gaining a good experience in their rocket operation for an actual war.

 

Noting that the current ballistic rocket launching drill like a real war is the first step of the military operation of the KPA in the Pacific and a meaningful prelude to containing Guam, advanced base of invasion, he said that it is necessary to positively push forward the work for putting the strategic force on a modern basis by conducting more ballistic rocket launching drills with the Pacific as a target in the future.

 

Sternly saying that the U.S. answered the DPRK’s warning which it will closely watch the U.S. behavior with the bellicose war exercises for aggression, he added that the drill conducted by the Strategic Force is a curtain-raiser of its resolute countermeasures against the Ulji Freedom Guardian joint military exercises being conducted by the U.S. and its stooges.

 

Noting that it is a lesson drew by the DPRK this time again that it should show action, not talk, to the U.S. imprudently denying the DPRK’s initiative measure for easing the extreme tension, he stressed that the DPRK will continue to watch the U.S. demeanors as already declared and decide its future action according to them.

 

He expressed great belief and conviction that the officers and men of the Strategic Force will further strengthen the combat preparations of Hwasong artillery pieces as required by the grim situation, be fully ready to go into action for decisive battle so as to launch powerful ballistic rockets anytime and thus check military racket of the U.S. imperialists and their followers and firmly guarantee the security of the country and the happiness of the people.

 

Officers and men of the KPA Strategic Force extended the warmest thanks to Kim Jong Un, peerless patriot and hero of the nation, who gave vent to the long-pent grudge of the Korean people by mapping out a bold plan to make the cruel Japanese islanders insensible on bloody Aug. 29 when the disgraceful “Korea-Japan Annexation Treaty” was proclaimed 107 years ago and approving ballistic rocket launching in the capital region, and pledged that once the Party Central Committee issues an order, they will fulfill their sacred mission and duty as the reliable nuclear force of the WPK in the van of the final sacred war which will win victory in the standoff with imperialism and the U.S.

via http://ift.tt/2wR5u9l Tyler Durden

Authored by Caroline Baum via MarketWatch.com,

Yes, GDP may get a temporary boost from rebuilding, but there’s nothing positive about destruction

Once the immediate danger of a natural disaster subsides, and the loss of life, property damage, cost of rebuilding, and degree of insurance coverage can be assessed, attention generally turns to the economic effect. How will Hurricane Harvey affect the nation’s gross domestic product?

You will no doubt hear assertions that the rebuilding effort will provide a boost to contractors, manufacturers and GDP in general. But before these claims turn into predictable nonsense about all the good that comes from natural disasters, I thought it might be useful to provide some context for these sorts of events.

The destruction wrought by a hurricane and flooding qualifies as a negative supply shock. Normal production and distribution channels are destroyed or disrupted. Producers have to find less-efficient (i.e. more expensive) ways to transport their goods. The net effect is lost output and income, and higher prices.

Over the years, I’ve observed a tendency among economists and traders to view such events through a demand-side prism. They see lost income translating into reduced spending on goods and services, which might even warrant some largesse from the central bank.

Of course, that is precisely the wrong medicine. Supply shocks reduce output and raise prices. The Federal Reserve’s interest-rate medicine affects demand. Lower interest rates will increase the demand for gasoline, among other goods and services, but they have no effect on supply. An easing of monetary policy under such circumstances would increase demand for already curtailed supply, raising prices even more.

But wait. What about all the new construction and investment necessitated by the devastation? Homeowners will have to rebuild. Businesses will have to replace destroyed or damaged plants and equipment. Pretty soon, we should start to hear about a boost to GDP growth.

In the short run, yes. But focus on the prefix, “re,” as in re-building and re-placing. After a natural disaster, housing starts are bound to increase, but there will be no net addition to the supply of homes. Capital spending will increase as well, but it will not expand the nation’s capital stock.

Economics is about the allocation of scarce resources. A natural disaster commandeers those scarce resources in an effort to return to the status quo ante. Any boost to quarterly GDP from an increase in residential and non-residential fixed investment is an arithmetic expression of current activity, not a reflection of the wealth of a nation.

The one redeeming virtue of a natural disaster is that provides an opportunity to revisit a classic essay by the 19th century French political economist, : “That Which Is Seen and That Which Is Unseen.”

In Chapter I, “The Broken Window,” Bastiat relates the story of a shopkeeper, whose son accidentally breaks a store window. The shopkeeper has to pay six francs to the glazier to replace it. The glazier now has six francs to spend on something else. And so on. Behold all the spending that emanates from a broken window!

What is unseen is what the shopkeeper would have done with the six francs if he didn’t have to replace the window. “In short, he would have employed his six francs in some way, which this accident has prevented,” Bastiat writes.

The parable, or fallacy, of the broken window has applications elsewhere, even if no window has been broken.

Take the belief that government spending stimulates the economy, based on the notion that $1 of government spending provides the resources for someone else’s spending: something known as the multiplier effect.

If the government borrows from A to give to B, it constitutes a transfer of resources, not stimulus. (Fiscal policy gets its bang for the buck from monetary policy, or an expansion in the money supply.) A dollar spent by the government can’t be spent by the private sector. During a severe downturn or depression, when the private sector isn’t spending, government spending as short-term stimulus may be justified. But, as per Bastiat, we can’t ignore that which is unseen, or what would have happened in the absence of government co-opting savings to spend.

Estimates of the effect of fiscal stimulus are all over the map, according to a review of the financial literature by Veronique de Rugy and Matthew Mitchell, senior research fellows at George Mason University’s Mercatus Center. The estimates of the government spending multiplier range from +3.7 to -2.88. In other words, a $1 increase in government spending produces $2.70 of private-sector growth, or displaces $3.88 of private growth, or anything in between, depending on economic conditions at the time and how the money is spent.

Discussions about the merits of fiscal stimulus are generally clouded by political bias, with liberals finding huge benefits and conservatives pointing to steep costs. The cost-benefit analysis of hurricanes, on the other hand, should pose no such hurdle.

I found enlightenment back in 1992, as Hurricane Andrew was sweeping the coast of Florida. I turned on the TV to hear a business news anchor proclaim that this Category 5 hurricane would be “great news for GDP” going forward. My reaction and response to his comment proved to be one of my more memorable laugh lines when I spoke to audiences on the subject of economic nonsense.

If natural disasters are such a good deal for the economy, I said, why wait for Acts of God to come along? Why not nuke our own cities so that we can rebuild and reap the benefits?

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A chemical plant in Crosby, Texas belonging to French industrial giant Arkema SA, has announced it is evacuating workers on Tuesday due to the risk of an explosion, after Tropical Storm Harvey knocked out power and flooding swamped its backup generators. The French company said the situation at the plant “has become serious” and said that it is working with the Department of Homeland Security and the State of Texas to set up a command post in a suitable location near our site.

The plant, which produces explosive organic peroxides and ammonia, was hit by more than 40 inches of rain and has been heavily flooded, running without electricity since Sunday. The plant was closed since Friday but has had a skeleton staff of about a dozen in place. Following the flood surge, the plant’s back-up generators also failed.

According to the plant’s website description, it “produces methyl mercaptan, ethyl mercaptan, dimethyl sulfide (DMS) and methylmercapto-proprionaldehyde (MMP).”

Our products are key ingredients in the manufacture of biodegradable herbicides, pesticides and animal feed supplements. These products are also used in the production of pharmaceuticals, photographic chemicals and circuit boards. Ethyl mercaptan is primarily used as an odorizer for propane gas. The strong odor that ethyl mercaptan adds to propane makes gas leaks easier to detect, protecting homes and businesses. MMP is used in the production of methionine, an essential amino acid and a key component of poultry, swine and ruminant (cattle, sheep, etc.) feed.

The threat emerged once the company could no longer maintain refrigeration for chemicals located on site, which have to be stored at low temperatures. The plant lost refrigeration when backup generators were flooded and then workers transferred products from the warehouses into diesel-powered refrigerated containers.

In a statement released at 3:30pm, Arkema said “refrigeration on some of our back-up product storage containers has been compromised due to extremely high water, which is unprecedented in the Crosby area.  We are monitoring the temperature of each refrigeration container remotely.”

It then warned that “while we do not believe there is any imminent danger, the potential for a chemical reaction leading to a fire and/or explosion within the site confines is real.”

Earlier in the day, Arkema said that the company “is limited in what it can do to address the site conditions until the storm abates.  Arkema does not believe that the situation presents a risk to the community or the ride-out crew, due to the distance between the refrigerated cars and any people.  We are working without pause to keep our materials safe. We have no higher priority than the safety of our employees, neighbors and the environment.”

Just 6 hours later it admitted that the situations presents a risk after all.

Rep. Ted Poe, a Texas Republican, wrote on Twitter that the Crosby plant “is in danger of fire/explosion. The local area is being evacuated. Stay out of area.”

Chemical Plant that makes ammonia in Crosby is in danger of fire/explosion. The local area is being evacuated. Stay out of area. #Harvey https://t.co/zCtnCGO5w8

— Ted Poe (@JudgeTedPoe) August 29, 2017

Meanwhile, Reuters adds that other chemical plants have also shuttered production in Texas because of the hurricane. These include Anglo-Swiss chemicals firm Ineos Group Holdings, which said it has been forced to shut down facilities in Texas. Chocolate Bayou Works and Battleground Manufacturing Complex, and INEOS Nitriles’ Green Lake facility are following hurricane procedures and are temporarily shut down, spokesman Charles Saunders said. Huntsman Corp said it has closed six chemical plants in Texas, along with its global headquarters and advanced technology center in Texas.

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Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

The Phillips Curve, an economic model developed by A. W. Phillips purports that inflation and unemployment have a stable and inverse relationship.

This has been a fundamental guiding economic theory used by the Fed for decades to set interest rates.

A new Fed Study shows the Phillips Curve Doesn’t Work.

A fundamental relationship of mainstream economic theory at the heart of the Federal Reserve’s strategy for setting interest rates has been a poor guide for policy makers for at least three decades, according to a study by the Philadelphia Fed’s top-ranking economist.

 

The paper, co-authored by Philadelphia Fed Director of Research Michael Dotsey, shows that forecasting models based on the so-called Phillips curve, which asserts a link between unemployment and inflation, don’t actually help predict inflation.

 

“Our results indicate that monetary policymakers should at best be very cautious in their reliance on the Phillips curve when gauging inflationary pressures,” Dotsey and Philadelphia Fed economists Shigeru Fujita and Tom Stark wrote.

 

Their study is timely. Fed officials have been surprised by a deceleration in U.S. inflation over the past several months despite a continued decline in unemployment, the opposite of what the Phillips curve relationship would predict.

 

The Philadelphia Fed economists found that rising unemployment was sometimes able to help predict lower inflation, but falling unemployment didn’t help predict higher inflation. They noted that was particularly the case during the 1970s and early 1980s when the Fed responded to runaway inflation by raising rates so high that the U.S. economy fell into recession.

 

“Our evidence may indicate that using the Phillips curve may add value to the monetary policy process during downturns, but the evidence is far from conclusive,” they wrote. “We find no evidence for relying on the Phillips curve during normal times, such as those currently facing the U.S. economy.”

Admitting the Obvious

That report is not surprising at all other than a Fed researcher would finally admit the obvious.

However, the FOMC members will keep using the model, despite the study, and despite the obvious.

Absurd Inflation Discussion

A few days ago, in response to Absurd Inflation Discussion by Fed Jackasses, Pater Tenebrarum at the Acting Man blog pinged me with this comment:

“It is de facto not possible to measure price inflation or a general level of prices. The latter is simply nonsense, it doesn’t exist. Both money and goods are subject to changes in supply and demand, hence there is no yardstick by which the purchasing power of money could be measured. And this is before we get to the fact that adding up and averaging the prices of disparate goods simply makes no logical sense.”

So, not only is the Phillips Curve useless at predicting inflation, one cannot properly measure inflation in the first place.

None of the models the Fed relies on works. Repetitive bubbles are proof enough.

Yes Virginia, there is inflation. Central banks don’t see it because they are clueless about how to measure it.https://t.co/ek7Y4jB9R6

— Mike Mish Shedlock (@MishGEA) August 3, 2017

 

Unemployment vs CPI 

Pater Tenebrarum at the Acting Man Blog emailed this chart.

Back in March, Janet Yellen commented: “The Phillips Curve is Alive“.

An Acting Man article by MN Gordon entitled  Why Janet Yellen is Toast blasted that bit of nonsense.

Since Phillips first derived the Phillips Curve there have been lengthy episodes that are inconsistent with his original findings.  Particularly, the late 1970s – when inflation and unemployment went vertical in tandem.

 

How could it be that both went up at once?  Weren’t they mutually exclusive?  According to the Phillips Curve this was impossible.  Yet it happened all the same.  In short, the Phillips Curve is a BS theory.

 

The fact that Yellen still spews this nonsense is intolerable and insulting.  This, among other reasons, is why she is toast.  Her four-year appointment is set to end in February 2018.  We suspect she won’t make it much past the next Presidential inauguration.

Brandolini’s Law

It’s not just the Phillips Curve either. Keynes thought inflation and recession could not happen at the same time. Yet, people still cling to that too.  This leads to:

The bullshit asimmetry: the amount of energy needed to refute bullshit is an order of magnitude bigger than to produce it.

— Alberto Brandolini (@ziobrando) January 11, 2013

 

Creative Nonsense

Those hoping to solve the inflation puzzle can do so here: Central Banks Puzzled as Global Inflation Hits Lowest Level Since 2009: Solving the Puzzle.

Also consider “Oh That Elusive” Inflation!

Those seeking to mock Cleveland Fed creative nonsense may wish to consider: “Idiosyncratic and Transitory Factors” Holding Down Inflation: New Definition of Transitory

As protection against Fed policies, it’s wise to own some gold. In case you missed it, please consider How Much Gold Should the Common Man Own?

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It’s been just over a month since the New York Times dropped its ‘bombshell’ report on Trump Jr.’s now-infamous meeting with Russian lawyer Natalia Veselnitskaya.  Of course, Trump Jr.’s subsequent full disclosure on the meeting seemingly revealed it was not only completely useless for the Trump campaign but a rather obvious attempt by a Russian lobbyist to push her own political agenda, namely a repeal of the Magnitsky Act…an act which we would almost be willing to bet that Trump Jr. had never ever heard of before walking in the room.

Nevertheless, and likely because it’s pretty much the only piece of tangible information they’ve managed to find, after a year of digging, that even remotely links anyone on the Trump campaign to anyone with a Russian-sounding name, the Senate Judiciary Committee has finally secured a closed interview with Trump Jr.  Per CNN:

President Trump’s eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., has agreed to sit down for a transcribed interview with the Senate judiciary committee, as investigators continue to dig into his attendance at a 2016 meeting where he was promised Russian dirt on the Clinton campaign.

 

After weeks of discussions, Trump Jr. has agreed on a date to be interviewed by the panel in private, according to Taylor Foy, spokesman for committee Chairman Chuck Grassley. Trump Jr. will be interviewed by senior committee staff, and senators will be invited to attend, Foy said.

 

While the committee spokesman would not divulge the precise date of Trump Jr.’s attendance in private, both Grassley and ranking Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein have previously told CNN they expected him to appear before their panel as soon as September.

Of course, Trump Jr. already gave his full accounting of the Veselnitskaya meeting back in July when he appeared on Fox News so it’s unclear what, if any, new facts will be learned on the topic.

For those who missed it, below is our previous note on Jr.’s interview on Fox.

* * *

In his first public appearance since his tweeted emails earlier today, which seemed to confirm that the Trump campaign was aware that the Russian government was willing to help then-Mr.Trump, Donald Trump Jr. admits “in retrospect I probably would have done things a little differently,” telling Fox News’ Sean Hannity that he did not tell his father about the meting because “It was just a nothing. There was nothing to tell.”

 

Key excerpts include (via Axios):

On whether in retrospect he would have done things differently:

“In retrospect I probably would have done things a little differently. Again this is before the Russia mania, this is before they were building this up in the press. For me this was opposition research, they had something you know maybe concrete evidence to all the stories I’d been hearing about, probably under reported for years not just during the campaign so I think I wanted to hear it out. But really it went nowhere and it was apparent that wasn’t what the meeting was about.”

Clip from the show

On why he decided to take the meeting with the Russian lawyer:

“Honestly, my take away when all of this was going on, is that someone has information on our opponent. Things are going a million miles per hour. You know what it’s like to be on a campaign. We just won Indiana, but we’re talking about a contested convention. Things are going a million miles per hour again and hey, wait a minute, I’ve hear about all these things, but maybe this is something, I should hear him out.”

On whether he read the emails:

“I had been reading about scandals that people were probably underreporting for a long time so maybe it was something that had to do with one of those things. I mean this was her perhaps involvement with the Russian government…so, you know, again, I didn’t know if there was any credibility, I didn’t know if there was anything behind it, I can’t vouch for the information…someone sent me an email! I can’t help what someone sends me. I read it, I responded accordingly, and if there was something interesting there, I think that’s pretty common.”

On whether he told his father about the meeting:

“No. It was just a nothing. There was nothing to tell. I mean, I wouldn’t have even remembered it until you started scouring through this stuff. It was literally just a wasted 20 minutes, which was a shame.”

President Trump has finally reacted…

My son, Donald, will be interviewed by @seanhannity tonight at 10:00 P.M. He is a great person who loves our country!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 12, 2017

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RBOB gasoline closes at a 2-year high (and WTI tested down to a $45 handle) as all attention is focused on the duration and impact of the storm (and how long refineries will be closed). Tonight's API data should not be market-moving since it relates to data from before Harvey but showed a big crude draw and modest (surprising) gasoline build once again.

 

API

• Crude -5.78mm (-1.75mm exp)
• Cushing +582k (+200k exp)
• Gasoline +476k (unch exp)
• Distillates -486k

Big crude draw and surprising gasoline build repeats a pattern we have been seeing for a few weeks…

 

“Concerns remain over the duration of the storm and how long these refinery outages will last, ” Rob Thummel, managing director and portfolio manager at Tortoise Capital Advisors, which manages $16 billion in energy-related assets, tells Bloomberg.

Motiva, the largest U.S. refinery, is running at 60% capacity; Valero Port Arthur is said to shut 2 units, while Exxon Beaumont is said to shut on flooding and Marathon Galveston Bay is also said shutting on storm issues.

“If you are going to reduce the rates of the U.S.’s largest refinery, that will have an impact,” Thummel warns.

Frankly, tonight's API data should not move markets as the impact of storm massively dominates the marginal shift in inventory estimates… but of course, the machines will want to push the market around. WTI limped higher and RBOB barely budged.

via http://ift.tt/2xvzswI Tyler Durden

As Tropical Storm Harvey heads back inland, slamming southwest Texas with another 15-25 inches of rain, Housting officials are reporting that the city's critical infrastructure is starting to fail under the weight of the floodwaters, and may soon collapse.

According to Reuters, roads and bridges in Houston have started to buckle under the impact of the catastrophic flooding in parts of the city. According to Jeff Linder of the Harris County Flood Control District, one bridge had collapsed and some roads had been damaged by the torrential rains.

Worse, the damage is far from over. As reported yesterday, the water levels at two reservoirs to the west of the city, where more than 3,000 homes have been flooded, continue to rise. Meanwhile, Buffalo Bayou, the primary drainage system that runs through the city, is holding steady and may not recede for days, said Edmond Russo, deputy engineer with the US Army Corps of Engineers. According to USGS data, the Buffalo Bayou has recorded a record 33 inches of rain, and another 20 is expected in the coming 48 hours.

Linder said the level of the Houston Ship Channel, which opens out into Galveston Bay was "at levels we've never seen before", slowing the bayou's ability to drain. Two major dams outside Houston have also begun to overflow, according to the BBC. Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner confirmed that one police officer has been killed since the flooding began. The Houston police chief says the officer's body was recovered Tuesday morning. He apparently died when floodwaters overcame his vehicle as he tried to get to his post.

Perez "died in trying." RIP, sergeant. Houston thanks you and mourns all who have died in #HarveyFlood.

— Sylvester Turner (@SylvesterTurner) August 29, 2017

Meanwhile, the Port of Houston is reporting that all facilities will remain closed on Wednesday, leaving oil tankers carrying an estimated 17 million barrels of crude oil stranded off shore with their cargo.

All Port Houston facilities will remain closed on Wednesday, August 30th due to the weather impact accross Houston. http://pic.twitter.com/6V3CKSYHSy

— Port Houston (@Port_Houston) August 29, 2017

At least nine people have died as a result of the flooding, including six members of one family.

Finally, recall last night's dire prediction by one engineer on twitter.

If he is right, the dire forecast by Imperial Capital analyst David Havens who predicted that the final Harvey cost would surpass $100 billion, or 3 times more than what most believe the Harvey damages will amount to, will prove to be pleasantly optimistic in retrospect.

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If NKorea doesn't launch a rocket tonight, stocks may sell off tomorrow

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 29, 2017

Blink and you missed it…

The message from the plunge/panic protection team is clear…

 

For a few brief hours overnight – until the bell rang at 0930ET on the NYSE – investors were anxious about North Korea's most provocative yet missile launch, the terrible flooding disaster in Texas, and lest we forget, the looming debt ceiling debacle. But all of that was instantly forgotten as the machines took control and lifted stocks higher practically all day on a sea of USDJPY-ignited momentum.

200 Point ramp in The Dow from overnight lows, but Nasdaq's 90 point explosion is ridonculous!

Spot The Odd One Out…

 

Trannies were best on the day, followed by Nasdaq…

 

FANG Stocks soared over 2.1% off the opening lows…

 

S&P algos were utterly desperate to get it to close back above its 50DMA…but failed

 

All thanks to a triple-pump-short-squeeze…

 

Treasury yields ended the day lower but well off the lows of the day…

 

10Y Yields touched 2.08% intraday – lowest level since the election – before bouncing back to 2.14%., just above June's 2017 low close…

 

The Dollar Index – like everything else – U-turned today at the US open – magically – elevating off lowest levels since 2014…

 

JPY and EUR were the weakest as the dollar soared back to life…

 

Just look at USDJPY!!

And it appears Kuroda's magical hand was at play as JPY-carry pulled stocks all day…

 

WTI was lower again today (testing $45 handle) and RBOB jumping to another new high, ahead of tonight's API data…

 

Gold ended the day lower…

 

Bitcoin surged overnight, but didn't give much back…

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