Tag: finance

Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

The Left is not just in disarray- – it is in complete collapse because the working class has awakened to the Left's betrayal and abandonment of the working class in favor of building personal wealth and power.

The source of the angry angst rippling through the Democratic Party's progressive camp is not President Trump–it's the complete collapse of the Left globally. To understand this collapse, we turn (once again) to Marx's profound understanding of the state and capitalism.

We turn not to the cultural Marxism that is passingly familiar to Americans, but to Marx's core economic analysis, which as Sartre noted, is only taught to discredit it.

Cultural Marxism draws as much from Engels as Marx. In today's use, cultural Marxism describes the overt erosion of traditional values–the family, community, religious faith, property rights and limited central government–in favor of rootless Cosmopolitanism and an expansive, all-powerful central state that replaces community, faith and property rights with statist control mechanisms that enforce dependence on the state and a mindset that the individual is guilty of anti-state thinking until proven innocent by the state's own rules.

Marx's critique of capitalism is economic: capital and labor are in eternal conflict. In Marx's analysis, capital has the upper hand until the internal contradictions of capitalism consume capital's control from the inside.

Capital not only dominates labor, it also dominates the state. Thus the state-cartel version of capitalism that is dominant globally is not a coincidence or an outlier–it is the the only possible outcome of a system in which capital is the dominant force.

To counter this dominance of capital, social democratic political movements arose to wrest some measure of control out of the hands of capital in favor of labor. Social democratic movements were greatly aided by the near-collapse of the first version of cartel-capitalism in The Great Depression, when writing down the bad debt would have brought down the entire banking system and crippled capitalism's core function of growing capital via expansion of debt.

The decimated owners of capital realized that they faced a bleak choice: either resist and be toppled by anarchism or Communism, or cede some of their wealth and power to the social democratic parties in exchange for social, political and economic stability.

Broadly speaking, the Left favored labor (whose rights were protected by the state) and the Right favored capital (also protected by the state).

But over the past 25 years of globalized neoliberalism, social democratic movements have abandoned labor to embrace the self-serving wealth and power offered by capital. The essence of globalization is: labor is commoditized as mobile capital is free to roam the globe for the lowest cost labor. In contrast, labor is far less mobile, and unable to shift as fluidly and frictionlessly as capital to exploit scarcities and opportunities.

Neoliberalism–the opening of markets and borders–enables capital to effortlessly crush labor. The social democrats, in embracing open borders, have institutionalized an open immigration that shreds the scarcity value of domestic labor in favor of lower cost immigrant labor that serves capital's desire for lower costs.

Globalization and neoliberal financial / immigration policies signify the collapse of the Left and the victory of capital. Now capital completely dominates the state and its cronyist structures–political parties, lobbying, campaign contributions, charitable foundations operating as pay-for-play cash vacuums, and all the other features of cartel-state capitalism.

To mask the collapse of the Left's economic defense of labor, the Left's apologists and PR machine have substituted social justice movements for economic opportunities to acquire economic security and capital. This has succeeded brilliantly, as tens of millions of self-described "progressives" completely bought the left's Great Con that "social justice" campaigns on behalf of marginalized social groups were the defining feature of Progressive Social Democratic movements.

This diversionary sleight-of-hand embrace of economically neutered "social justice" campaigns masked the fact that social democratic parties everywhere have thrown labor into the churning propellers of globalization, open immigration and neoliberal financial policies–all of which benefit mobile capital, which has engorged itself on the abandonment of labor by the Left.

Meanwhile, the fat-cats of the Left have engorged themselves on capital's largesse in exchange for their treachery. Bill and Hillary Clinton's $200 million in "earnings" come to mind, as do countless other examples of personal aggrandizement by self-proclaimed "defenders" of labor.

Please examine this chart, which depicts labor's share of GDP (economic output), and tell me the Left hasn't abandoned labor in favor of personal wealth and power.

The Left is not just in disarray – it is in complete collapse because the working class has awakened to the Left's betrayal and abandonment of the working class in favor of building personal wealth and power. Anyone who denies this is still in the fatal grip of the Left's Great Con.

via http://ift.tt/2jJjwjC Tyler Durden

While OPEC members were infighting over crude production and export quotas, posturing with temporary production cuts (just so the Saudis could get a six month reprieve during which it clears out a massive internal crude glut), Russia was busy capturing market share, and according to overnight Chinese data, Russia overtook Saudi Arabia as China’s top oil supplier last year for the first time ever boosted by robust demand from independent Chinese “teapot” refineries.

Russia boosted oil exports to China by 24% from 2015 to 52.5 million metric tons, or 1.05 million barrels per day, according to data released Monday by the General Administration of Customs, cited by Bloomberg. In a blow to Ridyah’s ambitions, the Middle Eastern kingdom slipped to second place, shipping 51 million tons, or 1.02 million barrels per day, little changed from a year earlier.

For December, Russia also held the top spot with supplies up 4.8 percent from the same month a year earlier at 1.19 million bpd. Meanwhile Saudi sales dropped nearly 20 percent from a year earlier to 841,820 bpd, data from the Chinese General Administration of Customs showed.

Total crude oil imports in December hit a record as refiners stepped up purchases ahead of a deal by oil-producing countries to reduce supply and bolster prices, Reuters reports. For the whole of 2016, imports gained nearly 910,000 bpd over 2015, the strongest annual growth on record and mostly driven by teapot buying. While Saudi Arabia counts China’s state oil firms as backbone clients through long-term supply contracts, China’s independent refineries, called “teapots” due to their smaller processing capacity, saw Russia as a more flexible, and perhaps cheaper, supplier.

Over the past year in which China’s growing demand has proven to be the holy grail for oil exporters, “Russia has been tussling with Saudi Arabia for dominance in the Asian nation amid efforts by oil producers to defend market share during a worldwide glut.”

Chinese demand, much of which has been to fill its strategic petroleum resreve, has been seen as a key to a sustainable recovery in prices, while benchmark rates are climbing from the worst crash in a generation amid output cuts by major producing nations. China last year bought the commodity at the fastest pace since 2010 amid growing appetite from private refiners, known as teapots, according to Bloomberg.

The proximity of Kozmino port, from where Russia ships Siberian crude, to Qingdao, where teapots typically receive their supplies, has helped boost cargoes after the processors were allowed to use overseas oil in 2015. “With teapots’ import growth set to continue in 2017 and the expected expansion of Sino-Russia pipeline by year-end, Russia is likely to aim for the top spot again this year,” said Sun.

“Saudis have always dominated the top supplier spot to China,” said Amy Sun, an analyst with Shanghai-based commodities researcher ICIS-China. “High imports from Russia mostly can be attributed to growing demand from teapots and strategic reserves purchase.” For the teapot plants, authorized to import crude oil for the first time in late 2015, shipments from Russia’s eastern ports are easier to process, coming in smaller cargo sizes at a closer proximity.

Looking at 2017, Russia may be able to maintain the top spot as it expands exports of its East Siberian-Pacific Ocean (ESPO) pipeline blend crude. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, is set to shoulder the lion’s share of supply cuts agreed to last year by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC producers. Should the Saudis lose even more market share to Russia, it is virtually certain that the kingdom will promptly nullify the Vienna deal, as it scrambles to regain China’s top supplier status in what will soon be a matter of national pride.

“OPEC cuts means Gulf producers take a hit in terms of market share, even though most of their cuts are to Europe and US …Russia has an ESPO expansion coming up as well as supplies via Kazakhstan earmarked for China,” said Michal Meidan of consultancy Energy Aspects.

Angola was the third-largest supplier in 2016, exporting 43.7 million tons, or about 875,000 barrels per day, 13 percent higher from last year, today’s customs data showed. China’s total crude imports climbed 13.6 percent last year to 381 million tons, according to customs data released on Jan. 13. China also boosted imports from South American producers last year, with growth of 37.6 percent from Brazil and 26 percent from Venezuela, the data showed.

Finally, imports from Iran expanded nearly 18 percent last year to a record 624,260 bpd, as Chinese state oil firms started to lift barrels from their investments in Iranian oilfields in addition to term supply agreements.

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One look at the Dollar Index in the last week and it’s clear just how ‘variable’ President Trump’s position has been on trade and so-called ‘border adjustments’. In the space of a few days, he has swung from being against a border adjustment, to possibly being for it, and now today confirming that “we are going to impose a major border tax.” Yen, Peso, and Loonie are all sliding further on the headline…

“We want to make our products here,” Mr. Trump says at meeting with business executives; adds focus will be on manufacturing in U.S. http://pic.twitter.com/pDJwEcjqqI

— CBS News (@CBSNews) January 23, 2017

Trump says he is going to cut taxes massively for middle class and companies

Mr. Trump says he plans to cut taxes and regulation during meeting with business executives. Watch more here: https://t.co/Sgc9Uj3lVV http://pic.twitter.com/gXwSXfGpPx

— CBS News (@CBSNews) January 23, 2017

U.S. President Donald Trump told leaders of companies ranging from defense manufacturer Lockheed Martin Corp to sportswear apparel maker Under Armour Inc on Monday that he believed his administration could cut U.S. regulations governing companies by 75 percent or more…

“We think we can cut regulations by 75%,” Mr. Trump says at meeting with business execs; says there will be massive tax cuts for companies http://pic.twitter.com/c4J1StsBQV

— CBS News (@CBSNews) January 23, 2017

And the instant reaction is a jolt higher in the dollar…

While Yen knee-jerked lower on his statement, it is still the Peso and the Loonie that are hardest hit so far….

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Authored by Robert Schiller, originally posted op-ed at The Guardian,

Speculative markets have always been vulnerable to illusion. But seeing the folly in markets provides no clear advantage in forecasting outcomes, because changes in the force of the illusion are difficult to predict.

In the US, two illusions have been important recently in financial markets.

One is the carefully nurtured perception that President-elect Donald Trump is a business genius who can apply his deal-making skills to make America great again.

 

The other is a naturally occurring illusion: the proximity of Dow 20,000. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has been above 19,000 since November, and countless news stories have focused on its flirtation with the 20,000 barrier – which might be crossed by the time this commentary is published. Whatever happens, Dow 20,000 will still have a psychological impact on markets.

Trump has never been clear and consistent about what he will do as president. Tax cuts are clearly on his agenda, and the stimulus could lead to higher asset prices. Lower corporate taxes are naturally supposed to lead to higher share prices, while cuts in personal income tax might lead to higher home prices (though possibly offset by other changes in the tax system).

But it is not just Trump’s proposed tax changes that plausibly affect market psychology. The US has never had a president like him. Not only is he an actor, like Ronald Reagan; he is also a motivational writer and speaker, a brand name in real estate, and a tough deal maker. If he ever reveals his financial information, or if his family is able to use his influence as president to improve its bottom line, he might even prove to be successful in business.

The closest we can come to Trump among former US presidents might be Calvin Coolidge, an extremely pro-business tax cutter. “The chief business of the American people is business,” Coolidge famously declared, while his treasury secretary, Andrew Mellon – one of America’s wealthiest men – advocated tax cuts for the rich, which would “trickle down” in benefits to the less fortunate.

The US economy during the Coolidge administration was very successful, but the boom ended badly in 1929, just after Coolidge stepped down, with the stock-market crash and the beginning of the Great Depression. During the 1930s, the 1920s were looked upon wistfully, but also as a time of fakery and cheating.

Of course, history is never destiny, and Coolidge is only one observation – hardly a solid basis for a forecast. Moreover, unlike Trump, both Coolidge and Mellon were levelheaded and temperate in their manner.

But add to the Trump effect all the attention paid to Dow 20,000, and we have the makings of a powerful illusion. On 10 November 2016, two days after Trump was elected, the Dow Jones average hit a new record high – and has since set 16 more daily records, all trumpeted by news media.

That sounds like important news for Trump. In fact, the Dow had already hit nine record highs before the election, when Hillary Clinton was projected to win. In nominal terms, the Dow is up 70% from its peak in January 2000. On 29 November 2016, it was announced that the S&P/CoreLogic/Case-Shiller national home Price index (which I co-founded with my esteemed former colleague Karl E Case, who died last July) reached a record high the previous September. The previous record was set more than 10 years earlier, in July 2006.

But these numbers are illusory. The US has a policy of overall inflation. The US Federal Reserve has set an inflation “objective” of 2% in terms of the personal consumption expenditure deflator. This means all prices should tend to go up by about 2% per year, or 22% per decade.

The Dow is up only 19% in real (inflation-adjusted) terms since 2000. A 19% increase in 17 years is underwhelming, and the national home price index that Case and I created is still 16% below its 2006 peak in real terms. But hardly anyone focuses on these inflation-corrected numbers.

The Fed, like the world’s other central banks, is steadily debasing the currency to create inflation. A Google Ngrams search of books shows that use of the term “inflation-targeting” began growing exponentially in the early 1990s, when the target was typically far below actual inflation.

The idea that we actually want moderate positive inflation – “price stability,” not zero inflation – appears to have started to take shape in policy circles around the time of the 1990-91 recession. Lawrence Summers argued that the public has an “irrational” resistance to the declining nominal wages that some would have to suffer in a zero-inflation regime.

Many people appear not to understand that inflation is a change in the units of measurement. Unfortunately, though the 2% inflation target is largely a feelgood policy, people tend to draw too much inspiration from it. Irving Fisher called this fixation on nominal price growth the “money illusion” in an eponymous 1928 book.

That doesn’t mean that we set new speculative-market records every day. Stock-price movements tend to approximate what economists call “random walks,” with prices reflecting small daily shocks that are about equally likely to be positive or negative.

And random walks tend to go through long periods when they are well below their previous peak; the chance of setting a record soon is negligible, given how far prices would have to rise. But once they do reach a new record high, prices are far more likely to set additional records – probably not on consecutive days, but within a short interval.

In the US, the combination of Trump and a succession of new asset-price records – call it Trump-squared – has been sustaining the illusion underpinning current market optimism. For those who are not too stressed from having taken extreme positions in the markets, it will be interesting (if not profitable) to observe how the illusion morphs into a new perception – one that implies very different levels for speculative markets.

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The key economic releases this week are durable goods and GDP on Friday. On the political front, the focus will be is on the first actions of the Trump administration including moves on TPP and NAFTA. There are no scheduled Fed speeches this week.

Arond the globe, the UK Supreme Court decision on Art.50 and the Italian Constitutional Court’s decision on the electoral law are on Tuesday. In EM, we have monetary policy meetings in Colombia, Hungary, Turkey, South Africa and Ukraine.

The focus this week will remain on politics, and specifically the first actions of the Trump administration – last week his spokesman promised swift moves on TPP and NAFTA – but also on the UK as the Supreme Court decision on Article 50 is due on Tuesday. On this latter, much of the focus is on whether the court issues a separate judgement which would grant the regional assemblies of Northern Ireland, Wales and Scotland the right to vote on whether the Art.50 is triggered or not.

Italian constitutional court decision on electoral law. The decision expected this Tuesday comes at a time when the main political parties are already negotiating for a new electoral law. At this point, with a partial rejection by the court being cited as a more probable outcome, a non-constitutionality decision may accelerate current negotiations for the new electoral law which aims to be more compatible with that of the Senate and favor a more proportional system.

A look at US and European main releases.  In the US, focus is on durable goods orders for which we expect a 2.5% m/m growth in December (this should partially reverse prior 4.5% decline). In the advance release of 4Q GDP, we expect growth to have slowed to 2.4% qoq saar from 3.5% in the third quarter. In the Eurozone, we expect the preliminary release of January Composite PMI for Euro area to increase to 54.6 from 54.4 in December, driven by improved sentiment especially in the service sector. Moreover, we expect M3 money supply to remain unchanged at 4.8% y/y in December.

* * *

A look at key events by day courtesy of DB’s Jim Reid

It’s a pretty quiet start to the week for data today with the only releases of note being the Euro area consumer confidence reading this afternoon and China’s leading economic index.

Things pick up on Tuesday however when we’ll get the various flash January PMI’s in Europe. As well as that we’ll also get the latest public sector net borrowing data in the UK. In the US the data due out includes the flash manufacturing PMI, existing home sales and Richmond Fed manufacturing survey.

Wednesday kicks off in Japan where the December trade numbers will be due. During the European session we’ll get various confidence indicators in France along with the IFO survey in Germany and CBI trends orders data in the UK. The only data due in the US on Wednesday is the FHFA house price index.

In Asia on Thursday we’ll get some data out of China with the December industrial profits numbers. During the European session we’ll get consumer confidence in Germany and the advanced Q4 GDP reading in the UK. The US calendar finally picks up on Thursday with the advance goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, initial jobless claims, flash services and composite PMI’s, new home sales, leading index and Kansas Fed manufacturing survey all due.

We close the week out in Asia on Friday with CPI in Japan. During the European session we’ll get M3 money supply for the Euro area and consumer confidence in France. Over in the US it’s all eyes on the advance Q4 GDP print in the US. We’ll also get a first look at durable and capital goods orders during December as well as the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading.

Away from the data there’s no Fedspeak this week with the Fed entering the blackout period. However we will hear from the ECB’s Praet, Weidmann and Lautenschlaeger at various points this week. BoE Governor Carney will also speak on Wednesday. Meanwhile earnings season will also start to ramp up with 107 S&P 500 companies set to report, accounting for about 29% of the index market cap. The notable reporters include Yahoo and McDonald’s today, Verizon and Johnson & Johnson on Tuesday, AT&T, eBay and Boeing on Wednesday, Caterpillar, Ford, Intel, Alphabet and Microsoft on Thursday followed by Chevron.

Finally, a brekadown of key events with consensus estimates via Goldman Sachs

Monday, January 23

• There are no major economic data releases expected.

Tuesday, January 24

• 09:45 AM Markit Flash US Manufacturing PMI, January preliminary (last 54.2)
• 10:00 AM Existing home sales, December (GS -4.0%, consensus -2.0%, last +0.7%): e look for a 4.0% drop in December existing homes sales, following the 0.7% rise in November. Regional housing data released so far suggest a sequential decline in closed homes sales, consistent with the November drop in pending homes sales (which represent contract signings) and the possibility that higher mortgage rates are reducing housing demand at the margin. Existing home sales are an input into the brokers’ commissions component of residential investment in the GDP report.
• 10:00 AM Richmond Fed manufacturing index, January (consensus 6, last 8)

Wednesday, January 25

• 09:00 AM FHFA house price index, November (consensus +0.4%, last +0.4%): Consensus expects a 0.4% gain in the FHFA house price index in November, following October’s 0.4% rise. The FHFA house price index has a wider geographic coverage than the S&P/Case-Shiller housing price index, but is based only on properties financed with conforming mortgages. On a year-over-year basis, FHFA home prices were rising at a 6.2% pace in October.

Thursday, January 26

• 08:30 AM U.S. Census Bureau Report on Advance Economic Indicators; Advanced goods trade balance, December (GS -$66.8bn, consensus -$64.7bn, last -$66.6bn); Wholesale inventories, December preliminary (consensus +0.3%, last +1.0%): We expect the goods trade deficit to widen modestly to $66.8bn in December on top of last month’s $3.4bn deterioration to a deficit of $66.6bn. Softer outbound container traffic and a second month of elevated inbound containers suggest a widening in the ex-petroleum balance.
• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended January 21 (GS 255k, consensus 247k, last 234k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended January 14 (last 2,046k); We expect initial jobless claims to rebound 21k to 255k. The four-week moving average of initial claims fell 10k last week to a cycle low of 247k. And unlike in previous weeks, the drop in initial claims was mirrored in continuing claims – the number of persons receiving benefits through standard programs – which declined 47k (w-o-w) to 2,046k from a recent peak of 2,116k. We remain in a period where seasonal adjustment is difficult, and the extent to which recent claims reports reflect a persistent drop in the trend pace of layoffs remains an open question.
• 09:45 AM Markit Flash US Services PMI, January preliminary (last 53.4)
• 10:00 AM New home sales, December (GS -1.5%, consensus -1.0%, last +5.2%): We expect new home sales to fall 1.5% in December, partially retracing last month’s 5.2% rise, driven by a larger-than-normal drop in temperatures and unseasonably high snowfall in the Midwest and West. Against these transient headwinds, a favorable fundamental backdrop and a fifth consecutive rise in single-family building permits reduce the likelihood of a much larger retrenchment, in our view. We plan to closely monitor housing releases in the coming months for signs that higher mortgage rates are constraining home sales, which could in turn affect the outlook for residential fixed investment.
• 10:00 AM Leading indicators, December (consensus +0.5%, last flat)
• 11:00 AM Kansas City Fed manufacturing index, January (consensus 8, last 11)

Friday, January 27

• 08:30 AM GDP (advance), Q4 (GS +2.2%, consensus +2.2%, last +3.5%); Personal consumption, Q4 (GS +2.4%, consensus +2.5%, last +3.0%): We expect a rise of +2.2% (qoq ar) in the first vintage of Q4 GDP, driven by a double-digit gain in residential investment (+13%) and a positive contribution from inventory investment (+0.8pp), but partially offset by a -1.5pp drag from net exports. We look for real personal consumption to rise 2.4%.
• 08:30 AM Durable goods orders, December preliminary (GS +4.0%, consensus +2.7%, last -4.5%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, December preliminary (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.6%); Core capital goods orders, December preliminary (GS flat, consensus +0.3%, last +0.9%); Core capital goods shipments, December preliminary (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.2%): We expect durable goods orders to rise 4.0% reflecting a sharp rebound in December commercial aircraft orders; however, our expectations for the core measures are low. Despite strong manufacturing survey data in December (and so far in January), we expect core capital goods orders to remain unchanged, reflecting dollar strength, softer company results in the month, and mean reversion following November’s 0.9% rebound. December industrial production of business equipment rose 0.7% mom, its fastest pace in six months, so we expect a 0.5% rise in core capital goods shipments, after a disappointing 0.2% rise last month. Finally, we expect a 0.3% rise in durable goods orders ex-transportation, weighed down by the stronger dollar, which has risen 6% over the last six months on a trade-weighted basis. The headline orders measure is also likely to be weighed down by defense aircraft orders, which seem likely to fall sharply after doubling last month.
• 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, January final (GS 97.5, consensus 98.1, last 98.1): We expect the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index to fall to 97.5 in the January final estimate from the preliminary reading of 98.1, consistent with relatively buoyant consumer sentiment. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index jumped to a new cycle high in the December report, however more timely measures have shown a small degree of sequential deterioration. After falling to a record low of 2.3% in December, the University of Michigan’s survey of 5- to 10-year ahead inflation expectations rebounded to 2.5% in the preliminary reading, and we expect similar relative firmness in the final reading as well.

Source: BofA, DB, GS

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Via Dana Lyons' Tumblr,

The U.S. Dollar is testing the breakout point of its 20-month trading range.

On an Inauguration Day in which the overriding theme of the incoming President’s speech was one of protectionism, it was fitting that the Chart Of The Day dealt with the U.S. Dollar protecting its own chart “turf”. Following the Dollar’s explosive rally from 2014 to 2015, it settled into a 20-month consolidation. In the case of the Dollar Index (DXY), this relatively tight range stretched from roughly 92.5 to 100.5. In the frenzied post-election action in the financial markets, the DXY was finally able to break out above the top of its range. And after a brief test of the 100.5 breakout area in early December, the DXY traded as high as 103.82.

In recent weeks, however, we have seen it pull back to where it is once again presently testing the 100.5 breakout level.

Many folks, including ourselves, have surmised that the 20-month trading range was likely just a digestion of the 2014-2015 rally and would put the Dollar into position to launch its next leg higher. For that theory to be correct, holding this breakout area may be crucial. Should the DXY indeed be successful at holding this level, a longer-term, more significant up-leg is certainly in play.

Of course, if the DXY fails to hold its breakout level, then a “false breakout” is the focus. And the downside potential following a false breakout could be considerable. Either way, a lot could be riding on this test right here in the Dollar.

Additionally, over the years, we have learned to judge each security and asset on its own merits. That is, the practice of “inter-market”, derivative analysis, or directing one’s investment in an asset based on the movement of another is vastly overrated. That said, if there is one asset that wields more influence over the behavior of others, it is likely the Dollar. Therefore, if one can correctly analyze the path of the Dollar, they have a decent shot at getting other assets right.

And that reality makes this current test that much more consequential. 

*  *  *

More from Dana Lyons, JLFMI and My401kPro.

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Live Coverage of the Financial World and Memes – FinancialJuice.com

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As Donald Trump himself tweeted on Monday morning…

Busy week planned with a heavy focus on jobs and national security. Top executives coming in at 9:00 A.M. to talk manufacturing in America.

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 23, 2017

… the president’s first official day on the job will include a meeting with congressional leaders and a separate meeting with House Speaker Paul Ryan.

According to the WSJ, Trump is also expected to sign various executive orders around 10:30am, which as previewed yesterday will include such topics as trade, immigration, government hiring, Obamacare and a lobbying ban.

According to the White House, which released daily guidance for the president on Sunday evening, Trump’s Monday will include a “breakfast and listening session with key business leaders” and a similar afternoon session with union leaders and “American Workers.”

Among this week’s key meetings, Trump is scheduled to with meet “top executives” at 9 a.m. today to discuss manufacturing, and British PM Theresa May on Friday.

He’ll have lunch with Vice President Mike Pence at noon. At 5 p.m., Trump is scheduled to hold a leadership reception with congressional leaders from both parties, followed by a private meeting with House Speaker Paul Ryan an hour later.

But the media will likely be fascinating by White House press secretary Sean Spicer, who will deliver an on-camera briefing at 1 p.m. that’s sure to be a focus of the day, given the weekend focus on the Trump administrations reaction to media coverage of the crowd sizes at the inauguration.

Also expect a series of cabinet votes: Mike Pompeo, the new head of the CIA, should get a vote today. White House officials expect at least three more Cabinet nominees, Ben Carson, Nikki Haley and Rick Perry, to be voted on by the end of the week, per the WSJ. And while Tillerson may not get a vote this week, Graham and McCain are now on board.

Clearing Mr. Trump’s nominees is a top priority because he is starting his presidency with a much thinner cabinet than his predecessor. On Barack Obama’s first day in office in 2009, the Senate approved six members of his cabinet. A seventh, Defense Secretary Bob Gates, was a holdover from the George W. Bush administration. The Senate that day confirmed an eighth nominee, Peter Orszag, to lead the Office of Management and Budget.

Cited by the WSJ, Trump is optimistic about the beginning of his presidency despite a rocky first weekend that saw mass anti-Trump protests across the nation and world and his representatives’ repeated falsehoods about media reporting of verifiable events.

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Confirming his campaign rhetoric and inaugural address tone, President Donald Trump is expected to sign an executive order as early as Monday to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with Canada and Mexico, according to NBC News’ Kristen Welker.

President Donald Trump is expected to sign an executive order as early as Monday stating his intention to renegotiate the free trade agreement between the United States, Canada and Mexico, a White House official told NBC News.

 

Eliminating the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which was crafted by former President Bill Clinton and enacted in 1994, was a frequent Trump campaign promise.

 

The deal was intended to eliminate most trade tariffs between the three nations, increase investment and tighten protection and enforcement of intellectual property.

The reaction in the Mexican Peso and Canadian Dollar is clear…

This should hardly be surprise…

I will renegotiate NAFTA. If I can’t make a great deal, we’re going to tear it up. We’re going to get this economy running again. #Debate

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 20, 2016

Canada’s ambassador to the United States said it was clear the Trump team were concerned above all about trade deficits with Mexico and China.

“I don’t think Canada is the focus at all,” David MacNaughton told reporters in Calgary, Alberta, ahead of a two-day government retreat focused on how to handle the new Trump administration.

Additionally, as CNN’s Jake Tapper tweeted, Trump is expected to abandon TPP…

Sr WH official: POTUS’s first executive action on Monday will be to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, per @JDiamond1

— Jake Tapper (@jaketapper) January 23, 2017

All of which confirms the new White House’s statement:

“This strategy starts by withdrawing from the Trans-Pacific Partnership and making certain that any new trade deals are in the interests of American workers,”

 

“President Trump is committed to renegotiating NAFTA. If our partners refuse a renegotiation that gives American workers a fair deal, then the president will give notice of the United States’ intent to withdraw from NAFTA.”

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