Tag: finance

U.S. B-2 bombers carried out airstrikes on two ISIS camps in Libya overnight, defense officials said Thursday, part of an operation targeting militants driven out last year from their coastal stronghold. The stealth bombers struck jihadis 45 kilometers southwest of Sirte, located halfway between Tripoli and Benghazi.

A map showing location of Sirte, Libya.

A U.S. official told NBC News that “several dozen” militants were believed to have been killed in the strikes

According to Reuters the mission was coordinated with Libya’s UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA). The Pentagon added that many of the targets had previously been inside Sirte until it was liberated from ISIS late last year.

ISIS was believed to have about 5,000 fighters in the area at the height of its influence, according to estimates from the head of the United States Africa Command. However, that number is now believed to be around 2,000.

 

US Precision airstrikes in support of Libyan government forces against ISIS were launched in August 2016.

Below is the statement released shortly after the bombing by Pentagon Press Secretary Peter Cook on Airstrikes in Libya:

In conjunction with the Libyan Government of National Accord, the U.S. military conducted precision airstrikes Wednesday night destroying two ISIL camps 45 kilometers southwest of Sirte. The ISIL terrorists targeted included individuals who fled to the remote desert camps from Sirte in order to reorganize, and they posed a security threat to Libya, the region, and U.S. national interests. While we are still evaluating the results of the strikes, the initial assessment indicates they were successful. This action was authorized by the President as an extension of the successful operation the U.S. military conducted last year to support Libyan forces in freeing Sirte from ISIL control. The United States remains prepared to further support Libyan efforts to counter terrorist threats and to defeat ISIL in Libya. We are committed to maintaining pressure on ISIL and preventing them from establishing safe haven. These strikes will degrade ISIL’s ability to stage attacks against Libyan forces and civilians working to stabilize Sirte, and demonstrate our resolve in countering the threat posed by ISIL to Libya, the United States and our allies.

Following the strikes, GNA officials said they would continue to clear the territories around Sirte of IS jihadists. The GNA mission to drive out IS militants from Sirte has frequently been aided by US airstrikes.

Islamic State gained a foothold in Libya after the country plunged into chaos following the NATO-backed ouster of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011.

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Just over a day after President Obama commuted whistleblower Chelsea Manning’s sentence to time-served, the former intelligence analyst has reached out…

Thank you @BarackObama for giving me a chance. =,)

— Chelsea Manning (@xychelsea) January 19, 2017

This follows Edward Snowden’s thank you tweet…

Let it be said here in earnest, with good heart: Thanks, Obama. https://t.co/IeumTasRNN

— Edward Snowden (@Snowden) January 17, 2017

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One of the better summaries of the tense mood at this year’s Davos proceedings, where globalists from around the world are confronted with the new protectionist, populist reality that was unleashed in 2016, comes from the NYT which recounts a dinner conversation on Monday evening as the forum got underway, in which Ian Goldin, a professor of globalization and development at Oxford University, celebrated the connectedness of the global economy and the technological advancements that have liberated humans from disease, poverty and the drudgery of manual labor.

Here are some of the highlights of what he said:

“There’s never been a better time to be alive, and yet we feel so glum,” Mr. Goldin said. “So many people feel anxious. So many people feel that this is one of the most dangerous times.”

 

He denounced the frightened retreat from globalization manifest in Mr. Trump’s threats of a trade war with China, and in Britain’s abandonment of Europe, commonly known as Brexit.

 

“You can’t stop managing an entangled environment by disconnecting,” he said. “This is the fundamental mistake of Brexit, of Trump, and of so many others. We are not simply connected. We are entangled. Our lives, our destinies are intertwined. What happens in China, what happens in Indonesia, what happens in India, what happens across Europe, and what happens in North America, across Africa and Latin America will affect all of us in dramatic new ways. The idea that somehow we can forge our future in an insular way, even for the biggest countries like the U.S., is a fantasy.”

And yet, Mr. Goldin said, if the benefits of globalization are not spread more equitably, the world could be in for a replay of the Renaissance, an extraordinary period of scientific progress, commercial growth and artistic creativity in Europe that ultimately yielded popular resentment.

The gold leaf landing on cathedrals was not bettering the lot of the peasantry. The spices coming in from Asia were too expensive for most. The Medici family that ruled Florence was sent packing by the mob. Intellectuals were persecuted and books burned.

 

“We need to learn these historical lessons and realize that this is the most precious moment in human history,” Mr. Goldin said. “We need to make the choices to ensure that globalization is sustainable, that connectivity is sustainable, that we deal with the intractable problems that are worrying people.”

Perhaps a more apt analogy is the gilded age, which ended with mixed results for America’s captains of industry.

Goldin’s speech led into the previously highlighted panel on Wednesday morning, in which Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, “injected a rarely heard word into a conversation about the crisis for middle-class households: redistribution.” It is also the most hated word of any person present at Davos: “There are things that can be done,” she said. “It probably means more redistribution than we have at the moment.”

But then the conversation moved on to other subjects. Ray Dalio, founder of the American investment firm Bridgewater Associates — who took home $1.4 billion in compensation in 2015 — suggested the key to reinvigorating the middle class was to “create a favorable environment for making money.” He touted in particular the “animal spirits” unleashed by stripping away regulations.

The biggest irony is that for years economic inequality has ranked as one of the most discussed issues at Davos, both in the formal conference agenda and in the conversations that fill hallways and the private parties and dinners held throughout town. And yet, for years, little to nothing has changed. Which prompted the following statement from Joseph Stiglitz, a vocal critic of economic inequality. 

“That agenda is anathema to a lot of Davos men and women. More rights to bargain for workers, that’s the part where Davos man is going to get stuck. The stark reality is that globalization has reduced the bargaining power of workers, and corporations have taken advantage of it.”

 

“People talk about inequality, how it’s a major problem, the greatest threat to globalization and the global economy. You have to recognize that the way we have managed globalization has contributed significantly to inequality. But I have not yet heard a good conversation about what changes in globalization would address inequality.”

That is not an accident, he surmised. Any sincere list would have to include items that involve transferring wealth and power from the sorts of people who come to Davos to ordinary workers via more progressive taxation, increased bargaining rights for labor unions, and greater protections for labor in general.

Which brings us to the NYT’s conclusion:

Same as every other year, Davos is again plastered with the slogan of the World Economic Forum: “Committed to Improving the State of the World.” But whatever improvements are supposed to be made, one can safely assume they will not conflict with those in attendance continuing to enjoy the state of the world as it is now, with canapés and aged Bordeaux and private jets at the ready. Which means that the global populism insurrection is unlikely to lose momentum anytime soon.

Here’s to looking at Davos 2017 where we expect the echo chamber will be in full force for one more year, even as the world’s rapidly shrinking middle class gets angrier with each passing day.

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Silver and Gold Today

Gold is down $10 at $1202 and Silver is off 38 cents at $16.9  as of this writing. The net effect of today’s events thus far have added to overnight weakness on the back of USD strength

The ECB announced no changes as expected to its monetary policy at 7:45 ET. The Euro weakened vs the USD post announcement. Draghi’s press conference has started, and the EURO is not liking what he is saying. Jobless claims are out with the most pronounced reactions we see so far in a stronger Vix and softer Equity futures. Markets are just beginning to digest the info as of this writing
At Davos early this morning, UK PM Theresa May defended globalization in a post Brexit world. Free markets were extolled and the GBP would find the right level for trade.
Yesterday, the USD rallied while Bonds and Gold dropped following Yellen’s San Fran speech, countering the effect Trump’s “weak dollar” statements made the day before.

Charts: Bad Candles Loom, RSI looks toppy, and Inauguration on Deck

interactive charts here

Physical Markets

Gold EFP (Cash to prompt future) was 20/50 yesterday (cash over) as Feb converges with cash. Chinese interest in a specific Gold bar through London is working way through the cash market. This not a a new phenomenon and reflects the premium Asia pays over the West to cash. All other globally liquid forms currently trading normally. No signs of backwardation or GOFO changes in April EFP or spreads at this point.

Countries looking for liquid, portable, convertible assets players adding fresh buying. Examples include Venezuela, Turkey, and smaller Eurozone players. India has lowered taxes, China always a known factor with wild card potential

FWIW

Anyone who has had a student loan can handicap the outcome of the footnote highlighted in the picture below. “Revised figures show that many more students are failing to pay back loans than thought”was Barbarian Capital’s summary of the WSJ article here

h/t

@JakeCahan for pic

Good luck

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Philly Fed continued to surge higher post-election with almost all subcomponents rising (apart from a decline in the average workweek).

 

However, while the headline index is at two-year highs, Prices Paid soared to the highest since Feb 2012, and expectations for Prices Received dropped.

 

The stagflationary pressures continue to build, but for now survey respondents seem happy about it…

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Just as we warned was likely, Mario Draghi first remarks were dovish, highlighting the potential downside risks in the EU economy and suggest that inflation trends were not convincing…. in other words, the un-taper is on the cards. And  EURUSD reacted instantly…

• *DRAGHI SEES NO CONVINCING UPWARD TREND IN UNDERLYING INFLATION
• *DRAGHI SAYS UNDERLYING INFLATION PRESSURES REMAIN SUBDUED
• *DRAGHI SAYS INFLATION PICKED UP DUE TO ENERGY
• *DRAGHI SAYS RISKS TO ECONOMIC OUTLOOK REMAIN ON DOWNSIDE
• *DRAGHI SAYS ECB HASN’T DISCUSSED REDUCING STIMULUS

And the result…

 

This has obviously sent the dollar index soaring to the highs of the day – how long until President Trump tweets?

And then there is this…

• *DRAGHI SAYS G-20 PLEDGED TO REFRAIN FROM COMPETITIVE FX MOVES

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Confirming the recent strength in economic data, today the Commerce Department reported that housing starts jumped to 1,226k up from a revised 1,102k in the prior month, and above the 1,188K estimate, driven by a 54% surge in multi-family units, which rose from last month’s disappointing 271K to 417K in December, returning to the trending observed in past years.

On a percentage bases, starts rose 11.3% in December sequentially, after falling 16.5% the prior month. Offsetting the spike in multifamily starts, single family starts fell to 795k from 828K the month before. This was the lowest print since September.

Offsetting the strong starts number, and in somewhat of a mirror image to the starts numbers, building permits fell modestly to 1,210k vs 1,212k in Nov.; missing estimates of a 1,225k print. Permits fell 0.2% in Dec. after falling 3.8% the prior month.

Looking at the components, single-family permits jumped to 817K, the highest print since 2007, while multi-family permits dipped once again, declining from 395K, to 355K, the lowest since March of 2016, suggesting that future rental inflation may accelerate as builders are once again shifting their attention to single-family units.

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1.74mm people were 'continuing' to claim jobless benefits before Donald Trump was elected. In a mysterious fluke of statistical smoke and mirrors, that marked the absolute trough in the data series – showing just how awesome the economy was for Hillbama. Last week's 2.46mm print for continuing claims suggests (while seasonal aspects are at play), over 700,000 more people are now claiming unemployment benefits than before Trump was elected.

 

But, by the magic of seasonal adjustments, initial jobless claims plunged back to its cycle lows – the best levels since Nov 1973!!

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With Yellen hell-bent on tightening into Trump's fiscal stimulus, and inflationary impulses popping up all around the world, ECB president Mario Draghi better note some serious downside looming (after leaving rates/taper unchanged) that opens the door to his un-tapering or the stagflationary pressures building everywhere willcome back to bite his precious asset prices.

As we noted earlier, with the market not expecting any changes from the ECB this morning, so far that is precisely what it got, when moments ago the ECB announced that it kept all of its rates unchanged as expected, keeping the rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40%, respectively.

In additional language relating to non-standard measures, the ECB also said that "it will continue to make purchases under the asset purchase programme (APP) at the current monthly pace of €80 billion until the end of March 2017 and that, from April 2017, the net asset purchases are intended to continue at a monthly pace of €60 billion until the end of December 2017, or beyond, if necessary" and "in any case until the Governing Council sees a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation consistent with its inflation aim."

It also said that "the net purchases will be made alongside reinvestments of the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the APP" and cautioned that "if the outlook becomes less favourable, or if financial conditions become inconsistent with further progress towards a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation, the Governing Council stands ready to increase the programme in terms of size and/or duration."

In other words, it may move QE up or down, depending on what happens with inflation, in line with the ECB's December announcement.

ECB Press Conference live feed (begins at 0830ET)

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Submitted by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

For the past eight years, Barack Obama has been using the power of the U.S. presidency to impose his vision of a progressive world order on the entire globe.  As a result, much of the planet will greatly celebrate once the Obama era officially ends on Friday.  The Obama years brought us the Arab Spring, Benghazi, ISIS, civil war in Syria, civil war in Ukraine and the Iran nuclear deal.  On the home front, we have had to deal with Obamacare, “Fast and Furious”, IRS targeting of conservative groups, Solyndra, the VA scandal, NSA spying and the worst “economic recovery” since the end of World War II.  And right at the end of his presidency, Barack Obama has committed the greatest betrayal of Israel in U.S. history and has brought us dangerously close to war with Russia.

So is the end of the Obama world order worth celebrating?

You better believe it is.

Of course Obama and his minions are in a great deal of distress that much of their hard work over the past eight years is about to be undone by Donald Trump.  On Wednesday, Vice President Joe Biden warned the elitists gathered at the World Economic Forum in Davos that their “liberal world order” is in danger of collapsing…

Vice President Joe Biden delivered an epic final speech Wednesday to the elites at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

 

The gist of his speech was simple: At a time of “uncertainty” we must double down on the values that made Western democracies great, and not allow the “liberal world order” to be torn apart by destructive forces.

And without a doubt, we definitely want it to collapse.

During his time in the White House, Barack Obama has used the full diplomatic power of the government to promote “abortion rights”, “gay rights” and other “liberal values” to the farthest corners of the globe.  Here at home, the appointment of two new Supreme Court justices under Obama paved the way for the Supreme Court decision that forced all 50 states to recognize gay marriage.  During his final press conference on Wednesday, Barack Obama told the media that he was particularly proud of this…

Obama said he’s particularly proud of the “transformation” on gay rights during his presidency, which saw monumental Supreme Court decisions on gays in the military and same-sex marriage. Obama said his role was mostly to deliver “a good block downfield to help the movement advance.”

He said gay and lesbian activists deserve most of the credit, and singled out talk-show host Ellen DeGeneres, to whom he awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom last year.

And the final press conference of his presidency also afforded Obama the opportunity to talk about UN Security Council Resolution 2334.  Sadly, Obama still does not have any regrets for betraying Israel so dramatically…

“It was important for us to send a signal, a wake-up call, that this moment may be passing, and Israeli voters and Palestinians need to understand that this moment may be passing,” he said.

As far as many of us are concerned, January 20th cannot get here soon enough.

Somehow we have survived as a nation for the last eight years, but without a doubt a massive amount of damage has been done.

Many are hoping that Donald Trump will be able to start repairing that damage and will work hard to set this nation on a positive course once again.

It still doesn’t seem quite real to me that Donald Trump will soon be residing in the White House.  Perhaps after I watch him being inaugurated on Friday I will feel differently.  And I certainly am not expecting any miracles under Trump, but it sure will be nice to have a new face in the Oval Office.

Right at this moment, moving trucks are in the front of the White House and those that worked for Obama are packing up and leaving.  This is a somber moment for them, but a joyous one for tens of millions of patriotic Americans.  Many of us have been waiting for this for eight long years, and by Friday morning the current White House staff will all be gone…

In between closing out final projects and typing up reports on the work they’ve done, White House staffers are packing away their knickknacks, coffeemakers and photos. The boxes stack up in offices already vacated by staffers who have departed over the past few weeks.

 

By Thursday night, all must be gone to make way for Trump’s team.

 

Before they leave the building for the final time, they’ll go through a checklist that completes their formal separation from the White House: cell phones handed in, computers locked and papers properly filed to be archived. The last step, aides said, is the hardest: handing in the badge that provides access to the complex day or night.

But just because the left lost the election does not mean that they are ready to roll over and give up.

On the contrary, emotions are running extremely high on the left, and many of them are preparing to make the inauguration of Donald Trump as chaotic as possible.

For instance, on Tuesday night a man actually set himself on fire in front of the Trump International Hotel in Washington…

A protester set himself on fire outside Trump International Hotel in Washington DC on Tuesday.

 

The 45-year-old man, who has not yet been identified, said the act was in protest of the President-elect’s looming inauguration.

 

Witnesses described how he yelled ‘Trump’ several times as ‘flames ran up his back’ before lying down in the street.

And it is being reported that radical leftists plan to blockade major roads and metro lines throughout the D.C. region on Friday in an attempt to prevent people from getting to the inauguration of Trump.

So let us rejoice that the Obama world order is ending, but let us also understand that the battle is not over.

In fact, the truth is that the war for America is just beginning.

The election of Donald Trump has energized the left like never before, and they are going to hit his administration with everything that they have got.

Donald Trump is going to need our support, our voices and our prayers if he is going to have any chance to succeed.

And all Americans should want him to succeed, because our nation is at a crossroads, and if we go off on the wrong path we may never find our way back.

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