Tag: finance

The week ahead promises to be a full one, with a plethora of events coming up. The Word Economic Forum in Davos could generate some headlines, with particular focus on Chinese President Xi Jinping, who will be the first Chinese president to attend. Tuesday brings Theresa May’s long-awaited Brexit speech, while of course Friday marks the inauguration of Donald Trump as the 45th US president. We will also be keeping a weather eye out for the Supreme Court ruling on Article 50, although there is no set date for its announcement.

Central Banks: ECB and BOC

No policy change is expected from either the ECB or the BoC, but both press conferences will draw attention, particularly that of President Draghi. The market is convinced that Draghi will do his best to be boring.

China Economic Update

There is a barrage of Chinese data out on Friday, where the most closely followed number will be China’s Real GDP for 4Q will be released in China, as well as IP, retail sales, FAI and December property prices. On Monday, Xi Jinping said China’s 2016 GDP is expected to be 6.7%.

US: CPI, Industrial Production, Housing, Trump Inauguration

There is a busy US calendar ahead, with CPI, Empire Manufacturing, industrial production, housing data and Philly Fed reports. There are several scheduled speaking engagements from Fed officials this week, including two by Chair Yellen on Wednesday and Thursday. The Beige Book for the January FOMC period will be released on Wednesday. The week culminates in the inauguration of Donald Trump as the 45th US president. Cabinet confirmation hearings will also be continuing during the week.

Eurozone and UK

In the Eurozone, the ECB will be the main event, with the German ZEW and final inflation prints the only data releases of note. In the UK, there is an important week ahead with Theresa May’s speech on Brexit the main focus, but also releases of inflation data, retail sales and the labor market report. Keep an eye out out for the UK Supreme Court ruling on Article 50, although there is no set date for the release.

Others

In Japan, we get machine orders, PPI, tertiary industry index, the final print of November IP and a speech from the BoJ’s Nakaso. In Australia, labor force data is the key release in the week ahead, while housing finance approvals and consumer confidence in both Australia and New Zealand will also be of interest. In Canada, focus will be on the BoC monetary policy meeting, but we also get CPI and retail sales data. It  should be a very quiet week ahead in Switzerland and the Scandies, although we do hear from Norges Bank Governor Olsen, and of course Switzerland hosts the WEF in Davos. There will be monetary policy meetings in Chile, Malaysia and Indonesia.

Earnings

Earnings will also be in the spotlight with Morgan Stanley tomorrow, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Netflix on Wednesday, IBM on Thursday and Schlumberger and General Electric on Friday due.

Davos And Trump

Away from that world leaders will also congregate in Davos this week for the World Economic Forum while UK PM Theresa May is due to outline Brexit plans on Tuesday. Clearly the other big focus this week is the inauguration of Donald Trump as US President on Friday.

* * *

A look at key events by day courtesy of DB:

• With markets closed in the US today for Martin Luther King Day it’s an unsurprisingly quiet start to the week with just the Euro area trade balance reading in November due.
• Tuesday kicks off in Japan where industrial production data is due. In Europe there will be plenty of focus on the ECB’s bank lending survey due early on, while the December inflation report in the UK will also be under the spotlight. The January ZEW survey for Germany is also due out. Over in the US tomorrow the only data due out is the January Empire manufacturing print.
• Turning to Wednesday, Germany and the Euro area will release the final revisions  to December CPI reports while the UK will release the latest labour market data. Over in the US inflation data will also be the focus with the December report due out. Industrial and manufacturing production, as well as the NAHB housing market index will also be due.
• With little else of note on Thursday morning the main focus will be on the ECB policy meeting. In the US we’ll get housing starts and building permits data as well initial jobless claims and the Philly Fed business outlook print.
• It’s a blockbuster end to the week in China on Friday with the Q4 GDP print due along with December activity indicators including industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment. During the European session we’ll get PPI in Germany and retail sales in the UK. There’s nothing of note in the US on Friday except for Trump’s inauguration of course.

There’s also plenty of Fedspeak this week. Both Dudley and Williams are scheduled to speak tomorrow, before Kashkari and Yellen speak on Wednesday. The latter is taking part in a discussion at the Commonwealth Club in San Francisco however is also expected to give an economic assessment. The Fed Chair then speaks again on Friday, along with Harker and Williams. The ECB’s Villeroy and Praet also speak today along with the BoE’s Carney while we’ll also get the usual ECB press conference on Thursday.

* * *

Finally, here is a full breakdown of just US events, together with consensus estimates, courtesy of Goldman Sachs

The key economic release this week is CPI on Wednesday. There are several scheduled speaking engagements from Fed officials this week, including two by Chair Yellen on Wednesday and Thursday. The Beige Book for the January FOMC period will be released on Wednesday.

Monday, January 16

• US markets are closed in observance of Martin Luther King, Jr. Day. There will be no economic data releases.

Tuesday, January 17

08:45 AM New York Fed President Dudley (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley will give a speech on “Evolving Consumer Behavior: A View from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York” at an event sponsored by the National Retail Federation.

08:30 AM Empire manufacturing survey, January (consensus +8.5, last +9.0)

10:00 AM Fed Governor Brainard (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard will give a speech on “The Impact of Fiscal Policy on Monetary Policy” at the Brookings Institution in Washington D.C. Audience Q&A is expected.

06:00 PM San Francisco Fed President Williams (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams will give the keynote speech at the Sacramento Business Review Economic Forecast at Sacramento State University in California. Audience and media Q&A is expected.

Wednesday, January 18

• 08:30 AM CPI (mom), December (GS +0.29%, consensus +0.30%, last +0.20%); Core CPI (mom), December (GS +0.20%, consensus +0.20%, last +0.15%); CPI (yoy), December (GS +2.1%, consensus +2.1%, last +1.7%); Core CPI (yoy), December (GS +2.2%, consensus +2.2%, last +2.1%): We expect that core CPI rose by 0.20% in December or 2.2% on a year-over-year basis. In the November report, core inflation was softer than expected, mainly due to lower inflation in the categories of apparel, medical care, airfares, and lodging away from home. We expect some payback in the apparel category, in part related to colder-than-average December temperatures. Headline consumer prices likely increased by 0.29% in December. On a year-over-year basis, the headline index likely increased by 2.1%.
• 09:00 AM Dallas Fed President Kaplan (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan will participate in a panel discussion on “Confidence in Uncertain Times”. Media and audience Q&A is expected. President Kaplan is a voting member of the FOMC this year.
• 09:15 AM Industrial production, December (GS +1.1%, consensus +0.6%, last -0.4%): Manufacturing production, December (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.5%, last -0.1%); Capacity utilization, December (GS 75.8%, consensus 75.4%, last 75.0%): We expect industrial production to rebound by 1.1% in the December report following two months of weakness, based on our expectation of a rebound in the weather-sensitive utilities category.
• 10:00 AM NAHB housing market index, January (consensus 69, last 70): Consensus expects the NAHB homebuilders’ index—which we have found to be a decent leading indicator of housing starts—to tick down to 69, though still near post-crisis highs.
• 11:00 AM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari will give a speech on economic opportunity and inclusive growth at an event hosted by the Minneapolis Urban League. Audience and media Q&A is expected. President Kashkari will be a voting member on the FOMC this year.
• 02:00 PM Beige Book, January-February FOMC meeting period: The Fed’s Beige Book is a summary of regional economic anecdotes from the 12 Federal Reserve districts. The December Beige Book reported modestly slower activity in a few districts, stronger consumer spending and residential investment, and mixed manufacturing activity. In the January-February Beige Book, we will look for additional anecdotes related to the state of manufacturing activity, price inflation, and wage growth.
• 03:00 PM Fed Chair Yellen (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will give a speech on “The Goals of Monetary Policy and How We Pursue Them” in front of the Commonwealth Club of California in San Francisco. Audience Q&A is expected.
• 04:00 PM Total Net TIC Flows (last +$18.8bn)

Thursday, January 19

• 08:30 AM Housing starts, December (GS +12.0%, consensus +8.6%, last -18.7%); Building permits, December (consensus +1.1%, last -3.8%): We expect housing starts to rebound 12% in December, following a 19% drop in November led by the volatile multifamily category. Despite colder-than-usual December temperatures, favorable single-family fundamentals and a rising backlog of approved permits suggest scope for a meaningful rebound. Consensus expects a more modest rise of 8.6% for housing starts and looks for a 1.1% increase in building permits.
• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended January 14 (GS 265k, consensus 251k, last 247k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended January 7 (last 2,087k): We expect initial jobless claims to rebound 18k to 265k, following two consecutive readings not far from the cycle low. We remain in a period where seasonal adjustment is difficult, and we are hesitant to infer a drop in the trend pace of layoffs based on the most recent two reports. Seasonality-related uncertainty will affect the data for at least two more weeks, and accordingly, confidence around our 265k forecast is low. The drop in initial claims has not yet been mirrored in continuing claims, which have actually risen relative to the levels in early December (as of the week ending December 31).
• 08:30 AM Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, January (GS +16.0, consensus +16.0, last +19.7): We expect the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey to pull back to +16.0 following last month’s increase to +19.7, remaining at levels signaling expansion in manufacturing activity. Last week, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia conducted its annual historical revision and calculation of new seasonal adjustment factors. For December, the index was revised down modestly to +19.7 from +21.5.
• 10:00 AM San Francisco Fed President Williams (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams will give the keynote address at the Solano Economic Development Corporation’s Annual Luncheon Meeting in Fairfield, California. Audience Q&A is expected.
• 08:00 PM Fed Chair Yellen (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will give a speech on the economic outlook and US monetary policy at an event hosted by the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. Audience Q&A is expected.

Friday, January 20

• 09:00 AM Philadelphia Fed President Harker (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker will participate in a discussion on the economic outlook at the New Jersey Bankers Association’s 6th Annual NJ Economic Leadership Forum. Media Q&A is expected. Last week, President Harker reiterated his support for three rate hikes this year.
• 01:00 PM San Francisco Fed President Williams (FOMC non-voter) speaks: San Francisco Fed President John Williams will give closing remarks at the Bay Area Council Economic Institute’s 10th Annual Economic Forecast event in San Francisco. Audience Q&A is expected. Remarks will likely be similar to those from his speaking engagement on Tuesday.

Source: BofA, DB, Goldman

via http://ift.tt/2jBoYVp Tyler Durden

Following a brief spike overnight (as China intervened in its equity market), crude prices slipped lower, testing towards a $51 handle after Saudi Arabia says OPEC is on track to wrap up its production curbs by the middle of the year, potentially leaving its aim of clearing a global oil glut unfinished.

As Bloomberg reports, OPEC and Russia won’t need to prolong output cuts beyond June because the agreed reductions will have already ended the oversupply in world crude markets, Saudi Minister of Energy and Industry Khalid Al-Falih said in Abu Dhabi on Monday. However, ending the deal by mid-year and restoring production would mean the surplus just starts building again, thwarting OPEC’s ambition of whittling down bloated oil inventories.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said that draining off a stockpile “overhang” of more than 300 million barrels — enough to supply China for almost a month — was the main aim of supply curbs agreed with Russia and other producers. Twenty-four nations signed up to a joint cutback of 1.8 million barrels a day on Dec. 10.

 

 

If they extend the deal for six months beyond its scheduled expiry in June, that surplus will be entirely eliminated by the end of the year, according to Bloomberg calculations based on data from the International Energy Agency. If they don’t extend the deal, and restore output to previous levels, about two-thirds of that glut will remain in place.

“If the reduction is of such short duration, this will hardly be sufficient to balance the oil market,” said analysts at Commerzbank AG led by Eugen Weinberg in Frankfurt. “In this case the market participants who bet on rising prices will probably withdraw from the market, putting corresponding pressure on prices.”

And that is what we are seeing begin to occur on this illiquid US holiday trading day…

When OPEC announced its original deal in Vienna, the group said it could be extended for another six months to “take into account prevailing market conditions and prospects.” Al-Falih said OPEC will reassess the situation when it meets again and the group’s members have said they’re will to extend the pact if necessary.

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In the latest indication that China is becoming increasingly unsettled by Trump’s relentless attacks on legacy diplomacy with China, and especially the “One China” policy, two leading state-run newspapers warned on Monday that Beijing will “take off the gloves” and take strong action if Trump continues to provoke Beijing over Taiwan once he assumes office.

The reaction was provoke by Trump’s latest US interview, in which he told the WSJ that the “One China” policy was up for negotiation. China’s foreign ministry, in response, said “One China” was the foundation of China-U.S. ties and was non-negotiable. 

“If Trump is determined to use this gambit in taking office, a period of fierce, damaging interactions will be unavoidable, as Beijing will have no choice but to take off the gloves,” the otherwise calm English-language China Daily said. It added that Beijing’s relatively measured response to Trump’s comments in the Wall Street Journal “can only come from a genuine, sincere wish that the less-than-desirable, yet by-and-large manageable, big picture of China-U.S. relations will not be derailed before Trump even enters office”.

But China should not count on the assumption that Trump’s Taiwan moves are “a pre-inauguration bluff, and instead be prepared for him to continue backing his bet”. “It may be costly. But it will prove a worthy price to pay to make the next U.S. president aware of the special sensitivity, and serious consequences of his Taiwan game,” said the national daily.

The far more fiery state-run nationalist tabloid, The Global Times, echoed the China Daily, saying Beijing would take “strong countermeasures” against Trump’s attempt to “impair” the “One China” principle.

“The Chinese mainland will be prompted to speed up Taiwan reunification and mercilessly combat those who advocate Taiwan’s independence,” the paper said in an editorial.

The official statement, while less provocative, was just as terse: Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said the United States was clearly aware of China’s position on “One China”. “Any person should understand that in this world there are certain things that cannot be traded or bought and sold,” she told a daily news briefing. “The One China principle is the precondition and political basis for any country having relations with China.”

Hua added, “If anyone attempts to damage the One China principle or if they are under the illusion they can use this as a bargaining chip, they will be opposed by the Chinese government and people. “In the end it will be like lifting a rock to drop it on one’s own feet,” she concluded, without elaborating.

Meanwhile, The Global Times ratcheted up its war rhetoric, saying Trump’s endorsement of Taiwan was merely a ploy to further his administration’s short term interests, adding: “Taiwan may be sacrificed as a result of this despicable strategy.”

Other joined in. “If you do not beat them until they are bloody and bruised, then they will not retreat,” Yang Yizhou, deputy head of China’s government-run All-China Federation of Taiwan Compatriots, told an academic meeting on cross-straits relations in Beijing on Saturday. Taiwan independence must “pay a cost” for every step forward taken, “we must use bloodstained facts to show them that the road is blocked,” Yang said, according to a Monday report on the meeting by the official People’s Daily Overseas Edition.

Trump has yet to tweet a response, if any, this morning.

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South Korea political crisis spilled over into the corporate sector overnight, when the country’s special prosecutor on Monday sought a warrant to arrest the head of Samsung Group, the country’s largest conglomerate, accusing him of paying multi-million dollar bribes to a friend of impeached President Park Geun-hye.

Samsung Electronics vice chairman Jay Y. Lee

According to Reuters, investigators had grilled the head of Samsung, the world’s biggest maker of smartphones, flat-screen TVs and memory chips, Jay Y. Lee for 22 straight hours last week as a suspect in a corruption scandal, which last month led to parliament impeaching president Park.

The special prosecutor’s office accused Lee of paying bribes total 43 billion won ($36.42 million) to organizations linked to Choi Soon-sil, a friend of the president who is at the center of the scandal, in order to secure the 2015 merger of two affiliates and cement his control of the family business.

 

The 48-year-old Lee, who became the de facto head of the Samsung Group after his father, Lee Kun-hee, was incapacitated by a heart attack in 2014, was also accused of embezzlement and perjury, according to the prosecution’s application for an arrest warrant.

In a startling admission that in Korea the concept of “Too Big To Prosecute” does not hold sway, the special prosecutors’ office told a media briefing that “in making this decision to seek an arrest warrant, determined that while the country’s economic conditions are important, upholding justice takes precedence.” South Korea, an exporting powerhouse, is Asia’s fourth-largest economy.

Special prosecution spokesman Lee Kyu-chul added that prosecutors have evidence showing that Park and Choi shared profits made through bribery payments. Lee is due to appear on Wednesday morning at the Seoul central district court, which will decide whether to grant the arrest warrant.

Meanwhile Samsung, whose companies generate $230 billion in revenue, equivalent to about 17 percent of South Korea’s economy, rejected the accusation that Lee paid bribes. “It is difficult to understand the special prosecutors’ decision,” it said in an emailed statement.

Prosecutors have long been looking into whether Samsung’s support for foundations and a company backed by Choi was linked to the National Pension Service’s 2015 decision to support a controversial $8 billion merger of Samsung C&T Corp and Cheil Industries Inc. Samsung, which has acknowledged providing funds to the institutions, has repeatedly denied accusations of lobbying to push through the merger.

“It is especially hard to accept the special prosecutor’s assertion that there was improper request for a favor related to the merger or succession of control,” it said on Monday.

The special prosecutor’s office said in its indictment of Moon that Park, through her aides, ordered Moon to ensure the merger of the two Samsung companies succeeded.

 

Park, 64, remains in office but has been stripped of her powers while the Constitutional Court decides whether to make her the country’s first democratically elected leader to be forced from office.

 

Park has denied wrongdoing but admitted to carelessness in her relationship with Choi, a friend for four decades. Choi, in jail as she undergoes criminal trial and also denies wrongdoing.

On the news, shares of Samsung Electronics closed 2.14% lower, underperforming the 0.61% drop in the broader market. Investors say that while key Samsung businesses are run by professional CEOs and would not be hurt on an operational basis if Lee is arrested, his absence would slow bigger-picture decision-making. The Korea Employers Federation, a business lobby, said arresting Lee would undermine confidence both in Samsung and the country’s economy, Asia’s fourth-largest, and called the special prosecutor’s probe “very regrettable.”

The proposed arrest is merely the latest in a long strink of corporate scandals to rock South Korea, and Samsung in particular. Jay Y. Lee’s father Lee Kun-hee was himself handed a three-year suspended jail sentence in 2009 for tax evasion. He was later pardoned. Public opinion has in recent years grown less tolerant of leniency extended to the heads of conglomerates, or chaebols, for the sake of the economy.

The Samsung crackdown is the latest fallout from a political crisis that has impacted South Korea, stemming from the impeachment of president Park in December. If the impeachment is upheld by the Constitutional Court, an election would be held in two months, with former U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon expected to be a candidate. Choi, in detention and on trial on charges of abuse of power and attempted fraud, again denied wrongdoing on Monday in an appearance at the Constitutional Court’s impeachment trial.

 

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Gold Lower Before Trump Presidency – Strong Gains Akin To After Obama Inauguration

Gold prices have had a good start to 2017 and has made gains in the majority of currencies, building on the strong gains seen in 2016. So far in 2017, gold is 3.5% higher in dollars, 2.3% higher in euros and 4% higher in sterling.

Gold Annual Returns During First Four Years Of Obama Presidency – Goldprice.org

Increasing nerves regarding the Trump Presidency likely account for some of the gains. Although the fundamentals of the gold market remain strong even were Trump not becoming President of the United State of America.

A backdrop of financial repression and global currency debasement involving ultra loose monetary policies and near negative interest rates, a push for cashless society, a still massively indebted U.S. and global economy and still very fragile banking systems all bodes well for gold prices in the coming years – not too mention positive supply demand fundamental that is peak gold.

Trump is icing on the cake in this regard. While it is always best to fade short term noise about breaking news and the latest market developments, ignoring Trump in the White House as an investor is very much a case of trying to ignore a giant white elephant in a very small room.

We should indeed ignore the short term noise of the Trump inauguration next week – although it is set to be compelling box office viewing! However, it would be imprudent to ignore the likely impact of four years of the Trump Presidency on markets and particularly the gold market. On Wednesday past, we had just a little taste of this when his press conference led to turmoil and massive volatility in markets and gold rising on safe haven demand to over $1,200 per ounce.

Trump’s extraordinary press conference this week highlighted the risks facing markets. Geo-political risk in terms of his ongoing war with U.S. intelligence agencies, increasing tensions with Russia, China, the EU, Mexico and other nations and the real risk of trade, currency and actual wars.

Warnings about the likely impact of the Trump Presidency on markets should be considered carefully – especially in the light of the “irrational exuberance” that continues to be seen on U.S. markets with ‘Dow 20,000’ a breadth away and valuations suggesting another massive bubble with all the risks that entails to pensions and investments.

Indeed, there is a strong argument for becoming more cautious and conservative and reducing allocations to risk assets such as stocks and bonds and increasing allocations to gold.

We believe that gold is likely to perform as well in the first four years of the Trump Presidency as it did in the first four years of the Obama Presidency. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns and all the usual caveats that apply in this regard. However, we believe that the over used “perfect storm” is brewing for gold and it will likely outperform risk assets in the coming years.

So how did gold prices perform during the first four years of Obama’s Presidency?

It is hard to believe but President Obama took his oath of office and made his inauguration address 8 years ago next week – on January 20th, 2009.

Gold prices closed on Obama’s inauguration day at $857.25 per ounce (and silver at $11.34 per ounce). Sentiment towards gold was poor as gold prices had “peaked” at near $1,000 per ounce in March 2008.

Subsequently gold had fallen as low as near $700 per ounce in late 2008, correcting lower after the very strong gains seen in the previous years and especially in 2007  and early 2008, at the outset of the global financial crisis.

In dollar terms, gold had risen by 20% in 2005, by 23% in 2006 and by 31% in 2007. It began 2008 with further gains – rising from just below $900 per ounce to near $1,000 per ounce in early 2008, prior to the period of correction and consolidation in the rest of 2008.

So gold had risen relentlessly and had more than doubled in value from near $450 per ounce at the start of 2005 to near $1,000 per ounce in March 2008. Most “experts” including Nouriel Roubini and Paul Krugman were out in force at this time, simplistically declaring gold a risky ‘bubble’ and discouraging investors from diversifying their portfolios and having an allocation to safe haven gold.

There was also a consensus and great ‘hope’ that Obama would clean up Wall Street and put the heavily indebted U.S. economy on a more sustainable financial and economic path – something which never happened.

It was against this backdrop that Obama came to power. Gold was unloved and derided by Wall Street and the financial pundits and languished at $857 per ounce (see chart).

Gold in US Dollars – January 2009 to January 2010 (Bloomberg)

One month later, gold had risen to $992.90/oz and silver to $14.44/oz. Thus, in just the 30 days subsequent to Obama’s inauguration, gold surged nearly 16% and silver surged by over 27%.

Exactly 12 months later on January 20th, 2010, gold had risen to $1,111.05/oz for a gain of nearly 30% in the first year after Obama’s inauguration. In the following 12 months, silver had risen to $17.88/oz for a gain of 57.6% in the first year after President Obama’s inauguration.

A similar performance in the coming month would see gold rise from $1,200/oz to $1,392/oz.
A similar performance in the coming year would see gold rise from $1,200/oz to $1,555/oz.

We caution that these returns subsequent to Obama’s first inauguration are interesting statistics and should not be used as a trading tool. In and of themselves solely they are somewhat meaningless.

Conclusion

Past performance is no guarantee of future returns – especially over short time horizons. However, over the long term, history including market history does tend to, to paraphrase Marc Twain, if not repeat then at least rhyme. This is the case with monetary history – every single fiat currency has ultimately collapsed as have the economies using those fiat currencies.

Given the fact that the U.S. monetary and fiscal position is much worse now than it was 8 years ago – the taboo (for now) U.S. national debt has grown massively – it seems very likely that we will see similar gains for gold in the coming months and years.

On January 20, 2009, when Obama was sworn in, the debt was $10.626 trillion. Today it’s about to reach $20 trillion – at $19.957 trillion. Obama added an incredible $9 trillion to the national debt, more than any other President. Another inconvenient truth ignored by the same experts that continue to either ignore gold or not cover it in a balanced, fact, evidence based manner.

We have long stated that we believe gold will reach a record inflation adjusted high over $2,500/oz and we see that as likely during the first four years of the Trump Presidency.

However, gold’s primary function is as a diversification, financial insurance and a hedge against geo-political, systemic and of course monetary risks – all of which abound as we head into the Trump years.

KNOWLEDGE IS POWER

For your perusal, below are in order of downloads our most popular guides in 2016:

10 Important Points To Consider Before You Buy Gold

7 Real Risks To Your Gold Ownership

Essential Guide To Storing Gold In Switzerland

Essential Guide To Storing Gold In Singapore

Essential Guide to Tax Free Gold Sovereigns

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Gold and Silver Bullion – News and Commentary

Gold dips from seven-week high on dollar strength (Reuters.com)

Gold Surges Above $1,200 as Details-Shy Trump Weighing on Dollar (Bloomberg.com)

European elections at risk to aggressive cyber attack threats: EU security commissioner (CNBC.com)

New ‘Ring of Steel’ planned for London Square Mile (BBC.com)

Italian banking crisis moves on to Unicredit’s €13bn cash call (IrishTimes.com)

Gold Only Safe Haven From Politicians Meddling and Bashing Central-Banks (Bloomberg.com)

Stocks are getting crushed by gold in 2017 (MarketWatch.com)

You can get inflation anywhere if you try hard enough – Stepek (MoneyWeek.com)

US Will Devalue Debt and Devalue Dollar – Rick Rule (Youtube.com)

Gold swaps by BIS exploded in 2016 from nothing to record level (Gata.org)

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

13 Jan: USD 1,196.35, GBP 978.85 & EUR 1,123.25 per ounce
12 Jan: USD 1,206.65, GBP 984.39 & EUR 1,135.82 per ounce
11 Jan: USD 1,187.55, GBP 979.25 & EUR 1,128.41 per ounce
10 Jan: USD 1,183.20, GBP 974.60 & EUR 1,118.12 per ounce
09 Jan: USD 1,176.10, GBP 968.75 & EUR 1,118.59 per ounce
06 Jan: USD 1,178.00, GBP 951.35 & EUR 1,112.27 per ounce
05 Jan: USD 1,173.05, GBP 953.55 & EUR 1,116.16 per ounce
04 Jan: USD 1,165.90, GBP 949.98 & EUR 1,117.40 per ounce
03 Jan: USD 1,148.65, GBP 935.12 & EUR 1,103.28 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

13 Jan: USD 16.76, GBP 13.76 & EUR 15.74 per ounce
12 Jan: USD 16.91, GBP 13.77 & EUR 15.87 per ounce
11 Jan: USD 16.79, GBP 13.84 & EUR 15.96 per ounce
10 Jan: USD 16.66, GBP 13.73 & EUR 15.76 per ounce
09 Jan: USD 16.52, GBP 13.57 & EUR 15.69 per ounce
06 Jan: USD 16.45, GBP 13.30 & EUR 15.54 per ounce
05 Jan: USD 16.59, GBP 13.47 & EUR 15.80 per ounce
04 Jan: USD 16.42, GBP 13.36 & EUR 15.74 per ounce
03 Jan: USD 15.95, GBP 12.97 & EUR 15.34 per ounce

Recent Market Updates

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www.GoldCore.com

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The US may be closed, but nothing stands in the way of merger Monday, which today struck in Europe with the announcement that Italy’s Ray-Ban maker, Luxottica, and France’s lens company Essilor agreed to a €46 billion ($49 billion) merger to create a global eyewear giant with annual revenue of more than €15 billion.

The deal, one of Europe’s largest cross-border tie-ups, brings together Luxottica, the world’s top spectacles maker with brands such as Oakley and Ray-Ban, with Essilor, the world’s leading manufacturer of ophthalmic lenses.

“Finally … two products which are naturally complementary — namely frames and lenses — will be designed, manufactured and distributed under the same roof,” Luxottica’s 81-year-old founder Leonardo Del Vecchio said in a statement.

Del Vecchio, who returned to the helm of Luxottica two years ago after taking a back seat for the previous decade, will be CEO and executive chairman of the merged EssilorLuxottica, which will be listed in Paris. Del Vecchio will take a stake of between 31% and 38% in the merged group through his family holding Delfin, becoming the biggest shareholder. Voting rights will be capped at 31 percent. Delfin will contribute its 62 percent stake in Luxottica at a ratio of 1 share in the Italian group for every 0.461 Essilor shares. The French lens maker, a long-time supplier to the Italian group, will launch a mandatory exchange offer on all remaining Luxottica shares at the same ratio, with the aim of delisting Luxottica’s shares.

Essilor Chairman and CEO Hubert Sagnieres will be executive vice-chairman and deputy CEO, with the same powers as the chairman and CEO.

Following their merger the two companies will be better positioned to take advantage of strong demand in a $95 billion market expected to achieve continued growth because of an aging global population and increasing awareness about eye care in Asia and Latin America. The companies said the deal is expected to bring annual revenue benefits and cost savings in the range of 400 million euros to 600 million euros in the medium term.

In a call with journalists on Monday, Sagnieres said the companies’ combined operations will be able to offer a much faster service to their customers.

Today’s announcement was years in the making, as Luxottica and Essilor, which have a market value of about 24 billion euros and 22 billion euros respectively, had explored a possible tie-up a few years ago according to Reuters. Luxottica said in September 2014 that discussions had taken place in 2013 but were dropped for a number of reasons, including shareholding governance issues. The second attempt was luckier.

Ultimately, the deal appears to have been the natural outcome of little organic growth, fast management turnover, and concerns about shareholder upside.

A year ago Luxottica announced the departure of its third chief executive in 17 months when Adil Mehboob-Khan, a former Procter & Gamble executive, stepped down and Del Vecchio tightened his grip on the group by taking on executive powers. Long-standing CEO Andrea Guerra quit in 2014 after a rift with Del Vecchio. His successor, Enrico Cavatorta, left only six weeks into the job, also because of differences with Del Vecchio.

 

Since taking the lead, Del Vecchio has stepped up investments to boost Luxottica’s retail network and expanded its lens manufacturing business. However, revenue and profit growth have slowed in a tough U.S. market that contributes 59 percent of Luxottica’s revenue while Del Vecchio has sought to increase control over pricing by limiting online discounts.

The companies expect rapid growth in the global eyewear market, saying that at least 2.5 billion people in the world still suffer from uncorrected vision problems. Luxottica has been dogged by management upheaval in recent years, raising questions over Del Vecchio’s succession plans and strategy. Some insiders have said a merger could help settle such issues.

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While US markets take the day off for MLK holiday, the rest of the trading world has been busy, perhaps nowhere more so than the sterling which continued its volatile session in advance of May’s pre-hard Brexit speech, falling below $1.20 for the first time since October after the Sunday Times said May is ready to withdraw from tariff-free trade with the region in return for the ability to curb immigration and strike commercial deals with other countries. As a result, overnight pound-dollar volatility surged the most since the summer, and breached just twice previously: ahead of the Brexit vote, and before the Bank of England’s July and August meetings.

The dollar rose, in an apparent bid for safety, rebounding after suffering its worst week since November when it was hit by a lack of clarity over the policies of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, whose inauguration is on Friday.

“(The movement) shows that people are looking ahead this week with Trump’s inauguration and discussions on Brexit. There is a lot of uncertainty moving forward,” Brian Lan, managing director at Singapore-based gold dealer GoldSilver Central, told Reuters.

Yields on low-risk German government bonds fell but those on Italian equivalents edged up after rating agency DBRS cut Italy’s credit rating after markets closed on Friday in a move that could raise borrowing costs for the country’s banks. Italy’s downgrade will mean Italian banks will have to pay more to borrow money from the European Central Bank when they use the country’s sovereign bonds as collateral. It may also make Italian debt less attractive for foreign buyers. German 10-year bond yields fell 2 basis points to 0.32 percent. Italian 10-year yields rose marginally to 1.90%.

Elsewhere, equities slid and gold climbed over the same Brexit concerns while Donald Trump suggested in an interview other countries could break from the EU block.

Having traded quietly lower for the past few days, Chinese stocks tumbled in early trading on the mainland and in Hong Kong’s offshore mkt amid weakness in Asian equities. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped as much as 2.2% to head for its fifth loss in as many days, its longest losing streak since Aug. 2015.However a sudden bout of late afternoon buying sent the loss down to just -0.3%, on speculation China’s national team was once again back in the markets.

A similar fate befell stocks in China’s second-largest equity market, the Shenzhen Composite, which plunged the most in 10 months, underscoring the increasing fragility of the nation’s financial assets. The Shenzhen Composite Index sank as much as 6.1%, the biggest loss since Feb. 29. Traders pointed to concern that regulators will accelerate the pace of initial public offerings, already at a 19-year high, diverting liquidity from existing shares. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped as much as 2.2 percent in minutes before paring losses amid speculated buying by state-backed funds.

About 60 stocks fell by the daily 10% limit on the Shenzhen Composite Index, with turnover totaling 259.2 billion yuan ($37.6 billion), the highest in more than a month. Nearly 100 stocks were halted limit down on China’s Nasdaq-equivalent Chinext exchange.

Meanwhile, in Europe banks led European stocks lower after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. downgraded Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, citing exposure to volatile politics.

In reaction to concerns about the May and Trump statements, markets have seen a subdued risk off tone, with the EURUSD sliding, and USDJPY hitting 113.65 overnight before rebounding back over 114. Bloomberg notes that British government officials are trying to limit damage to the pound will speak to major banks in London before the U.K. leader sets out her vision for leaving the bloc in a speech on Tuesday, according to people familiar with the situation. Meanwhile Trump predicted that Britain’s exit will be a success that will encourage others to do the same. He also branded NATO obsolete.

“Markets are trading in risk aversion mode,” said Neil Jones, the head of hedge-fund sales at Mizuho Bank Ltd. in London. “Investors and corporates around the world are concerned by the prospect of a hard Brexit. Pound rallies are limited and weak, while plunges are harsh and prolonged.”

Among the key notable risk moves, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index dropped 0.5 percent after retreating as much as 0.8 percent. Banks and insurers led losses in Europe after Royal Bank of Scotland slid 2.8%. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index dropped less than 0.1 percent, poised to halt a record streak of daily gains and 10 consecutive all-time highs, despite the latest slump in sterling.

S&P 500 futures declined 0.2% to 2,267. US stock markets are closed on Monday.

In currencies, sterling traded 1.1% lower to $1.2052 at 10:49 a.m. in London after touching $1.1986, its weakest level since October. Overnight implied volatility in the pound against the dollar climbed to a five-month high before May’s speech. The measure exceed 30% a level only breached before three events in 2016 – Britain’s EU vote and the Bank of England’s July and August meetings. The euro dropped 0.5 percent to $1.0588. The yen rose 0.2 percent to 114.25 per dollar, extending gains for the longest winning streak since June. Turkey’s lira resumed its slide after it weakened 1.2%.The currency jumped 3.7 percent over Thursday and Friday after the central bank took steps to prop it up by tightening liquidity.

In commodities, gold climbed 0.4 percent, extending last week’s surge to trade at $1,202.25 an ounce. Oil rose 0.3 percent to $52.51 a barrel. Iron ore futures jumped as much as 6.4% to $82.12 a metric ton, the highest level since October 2014.

* * *

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Martin Luther King Day means a quiet start to a busy week culminating in Donald Trump’s inauguration on Friday. I say quiet but I’ll be forever haunted by suggesting back in January 2008 that the MLK Day ahead was likely to be very quiet only for it to herald one of the worst days in stock market history after the rouge trader’s positions were discovered at SocGen. The CAC and DAX were down -6.83% and -7.16% respectively that day and I’ve never taken public holidays lightly since.

It’s hard to see the inauguration being a market moving event (famous last words given what I’ve said above) but it will mark the point where we’ll start the landmark first 100 days in office when the phoney war will end and action starts. Of more market interest will likely be the UK PM’s speech tomorrow night where it was reported in the Sunday Times that Theresa May will signal plans for a “hard Brexit’’ by saying she’s willing to quit the single market in order to regain control of migration and law making. Sterling fell -1.83% and -0.85% against the Euro and Dollar last week as speculation mounted about this speech. In Asia it’s down -1.34% as we go to print at $1.202 although it did temporarily test the waters below the $1.200 mark at one stage – a level not seen since the October flash crash. There’s some suggestion that comments from President-elect Trump, who said that the US is prepared to offer the UK a quick and fair trade deal, as well as a Bloomberg report suggesting that the UK Government is putting in place plans to speak to major Banks to calm any nerves in the event of another big selloff, is helping to at least put a bit of a floor in the price for now.

On a related note, interestingly Mark Carney speaks tonight with no details on what he’ll discuss while we’ve also got the Supreme Court appeal on the government’s Triggering of Article 50 around the corner (DB expects this to be on one of the forthcoming two Wednesday’s). So plenty to keep the market on its toes in the short term.

The other main events of the week are discussed at the end but the highlights are the ECB lending survey tomorrow which was a bit soft last quarter but may be helped by a rebounding European banking sector. UK, US and Euro inflation numbers and a Yellen speech appear on Wednesday. We have what might be a lower profile ECB policy meeting on Thursday with Friday seeing the mass China monthly data dump. We also see a ramping up of US earnings and the annual Davos shindig which will guarantee plenty of headlines. I’ll know I’ve made it in life if I ever get invited this event.

In the meantime the moves for Sterling this morning appear to have sparked a bit of across the board risk aversion in Asia to begin the week. The Shanghai Comp is currently -1.40% and is on a run of 5 consecutive down days which is actually the longest since August 2015. The Hang Seng (-1.03%), Nikkei (-1.09%) and Kospi (-0.56%) are also in the red while the ASX (+0.50%) is the only index currently trading higher with materials leading the way. Currencies in Asia are also generally weaker while 10y JGB yields are little changed around 0.040%. Interestingly they’ve now held above that 0% band for over 2 months now.

Moving on. As we highlighted above, with earnings likely to be one of the events to keep an eye on this week, the early signal from Friday’s releases were fairly encouraging after JPM, BofA and Wells Fargo all came in with Q4 reports that bettered market expectations. A combination of cost cuts and strong FICC revenues seemed to be the driving force for JPM and BofA in particular while the former encouragingly said on the conference call that they are starting to see better data at a US retail level too. The results helped the S&P 500 Financials index to close +0.55% which compares to a +0.18% gain for the wider S&P500. The Dow closed -0.03% and it does feel like there is some unwinding of the Trump trades passing through still. The European session had been a much better story though with the Stoxx 600 closing +0.95% to help the index nudge back into positive territory for the week. Financials also outperformed in credit, particularly so in Europe where Senior and Sub Fins closed 4bps and 10bps tighter respectively, compared to a 2bp tighter move for Main.

Away from earnings, the US data was also in the spotlight on Friday. Most notable was the December retail sales numbers where headline sales (+0.6% mom vs. +0.7% expected) missed by a smallish margin. There was a much bigger miss for the ex auto and gas component though (0.0% vs. +0.4% expected) while the control group component (+0.2% mom vs. +0.4% expected) also disappointed. The rest of the data was a bit of a wash. Headline PPI (+0.3% mom) printed in line, as did the core ex food, energy and trade print (+0.1% mom). Business inventories rose a little bit more than expected in November (+0.7% mom vs. +0.6% expected) while the flash University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading for this month was a touch on the softer side (98.1 vs. 98.5 expected; from 98.2 in December). That said 1y inflation expectations were bumped up from 2.2% to 2.6% while 5-10y inflation expectations were nudged up to 2.5% from 2.3%. The Atlanta Fed revised their Q4 GDP forecast down one-tenth to 2.8% following the retail sales numbers, while the USD index (-0.17%) softened a touch to finish with a -1.02% weekly loss. 10y Treasury yields did nudge up 3.3bps to 2.397% but still finished the week a few basis points down from the prior week close.

There wasn’t much of note in Europe although it’s worth highlighting that our economists reported that their SIREN momentum and surprise indicators are now in the top deciles of their respective readings over the past decade. It’s been almost six years since both indices were in their top deciles. Indeed, their combined message stands close to the top 1% of its historical readings. They also go on to note that the SIREN momentum per reference quarter points to annualised euro area growth in Q4 2016 close to, if not above 2%, which would be the strongest quarter since Q1 2015. So while we’re expecting no fireworks from the ECB this week, the recent data – should it continue – could force the outright tapering debate into a sooner than expected timeframe.

Staying in Europe, it’s worth noting that Canadian rating agency DBRS downgraded Italy’s sovereign rating on Friday to BBB High from A Low, citing their ability to pass reforms and the weakness in the banking sector and fragile growth. The decision will add to banking pressures for Italy given that it’ll force an increase in haircuts on some Italian collateral posted at the ECB. The move has also stripped Italy of what was its final A rating amongst the big 4 rating agencies.

Turning now to the week ahead and expanding on the brief highlights at the top. With markets closed in the US today for Martin Luther King Day it’s an unsurprisingly quiet start to the week with just the Euro area trade balance reading in November due. Tuesday kicks off in Japan where industrial production data is due. In Europe there will be plenty of focus on the ECB’s bank lending survey due early on, while the December inflation report in the UK will also be under the spotlight. The January ZEW survey for Germany is also due out. Over in the US tomorrow the only data due out is the January Empire manufacturing print.

Turning to Wednesday, Germany and the Euro area will release the final revisions to December CPI reports while the UK will release the latest labour market data. Over in the US inflation data will also be the focus with the December report due out. Industrial and manufacturing production, as well as the NAHB housing market index will also be due. With little else of note on Thursday morning the main focus will be on the ECB policy meeting. In the US we’ll get housing starts and building permits data as well initial jobless claims and the Philly Fed business outlook print. It’s a blockbuster end to the week in China on Friday with the Q4 GDP print due along with December activity indicators including industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment. During the European session we’ll get PPI in Germany and retail sales in the UK. There’s nothing of note in the US on Friday.

As well as the above, there’s also plenty of Fedspeak this week. Both Dudley and Williams are scheduled to speak tomorrow, before Kashkari and Yellen speak on Wednesday. The latter is taking part in a   discussion at the Commonwealth Club in San Francisco however is also expected to give an economic assessment. The Fed Chair then speaks again on Friday, along with Harker and Williams. The ECB’s Villeroy and Praet also speak today along with the BoE’s Carney while we’ll also get the usual ECB press conference on Thursday. Earnings will also be in the spotlight with Morgan Stanley tomorrow, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Netflix on Wednesday, IBM on Thursday and Schlumberger and General Electric on Friday due. Away from that world leaders will also congregate in Davos this week for the World Economic Forum while UK PM Theresa May is due to outline Brexit plans on Tuesday. Clearly the other big focus this week is the inauguration of Donald Trump as US President on Friday.

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Submitted by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Conventional wisdom suggests National Front candidate Marine le Pen will make it to the second round in French elections, then lose in a landslide to whoever her opponent happens to be.

I believe le Pen’s odds of winning it outright are far better than most think.

Current Polls

Chart from Wikipedia, with image clips added.

Top Five candidates

1. Marine le Pen: National Front – Eurosceptic, Anti-Immigration – 25%
2. François Fillon: Republicans – Center Right – 24%
3. Emmanuel Macron: En Marche! – Socialist – 17%
4. Manuel Valls: Socialist – 11%
5. Jean-Luc Mélenchon: Left Front – Socialist – 13%

In France, the winners of each party square off in around one of national elections. If no one gets 50% of the vote, the top two square off in round two.

With about 25% or so solid votes, le Pen is likely to make it to the second round. The others battle to see who comes up against le Pen.

Eurointelligence Reports

January 13: Yesterday night the seven candidates for the left primaries had their first debate. It was sometimes painful to watch and it is not clear how much the audience took home from the long catalogue of measures the candidates were quizzed about. All tried to differentiate themselves from François Hollande, and lashed out against the common enemy François Fillon. All were eager to show how presidential they are and how well they represent the real socialist heart. Though it did not look like they succeeded. One blogger wrote that there was one irreconcilable division, that is between the candidates and their audience.

 

François Fillon, meanwhile, has his own rebellion to deal with. Laurent Wauquiez, Christian Estrosi, and other ex-Sarkozists, insist on making their own mark and call for changes to Fillon’s programme. When Fillon made his big appearance in Nice, Estrosi told everyone in front of the presidential candidate that he is not a “Filloniste”. Laurent Wauquiez, who was fired by Fillon, is leading this mini-revolt. He recently called for a de-taxation of supplementary working hours, one of Sarkozy’s key measures, which is absolutely not in the Fillon’s programme, writes Marianne. Brice Hortefeux, another Sarkozy ally, said they want to enrich the programme. Fillon, however, remains firm and will not give in to those demands. His campaign chief dismissed those efforts as coming from bad losers or small players. The risk is that he may alienate the Sarkozy wing, though.

 

January 12: For Macron, no politics goes without narrative and no narrative without ideal. So, what is his ideal? Some friends call him a real libertarian, others a real democrat, who has yet to find a socially empathetic narrative. In 2015 he outlined his three dreams – equality, Europe and industry. When it comes to Europe, he may well compare with Jacques Delors, who like him was not loved by the Socialist party and made his way. But this comparison only holds on Europe. Macron’s economic ideal is inspired by new-Keynesian thinking, and the idea that social improvement is achieved by eliminating unjust rents that keep up barriers in society.

 

January 11: Emmanuel Macron is the most pro-European among the presidential candidates, though will he really be ready to confront the Germans and change the course of the eurozone? We have our doubts, but he is the only candidate with at least an explicit eurozone agenda. In his speech at Humboldt University in Berlin yesterday he promised that, if elected, he would propose a common eurozone budget for investment and financial assistance in case of shocks. At the EU council in December 2017 he would propose democratic conventions in all EU countries for 6-10 months.

 

We note that his Berlin speech did not make headlines in the French press. They were more interested in comparing Macron with the Socialist candidates or to François Fillon, or in the question whether Macron exaggerated his arguments. There is a clear national bias in reporting, as we have observed so many times in the past.

 

The Front National took the chance to pick up on the point that Macron gave his speech in English rather than French. Pauvre France, tweeted Marine Le Pen. Florian Philippot writes it only shows Macron’s disrespect for the French language, and that he does not believe in France.

 

The latest Ifop poll for Paris Match shows Marine Le Pen (26%) advancing to the pole position for the first round, overtaking Francois Fillon (24%). Macron comes third (17%), far ahead of the Manuel Valls (10.5%). Le Pen is still expected to lose in the second round against Fillon (64% to 36%) or Macron (65% to 35%). We agree with François Heisbourg, who tweeted that this is a wildly unpredictable election.

Wildly Unpredictable

I agree with Eurointelligence this is a wildly unpredictable election.

Already we have seen “wild” results with former president Nicolas Sarkozy unexpectedly getting clobbered in the first round of the primary by Francois Fillon.

Germany a Loser No Matter Who Wins?

• Le Pen: Eurosceptic – Seeks better relations with Russia
• Macron: Pro Europe but seeks a common eurozone budget for investment and financial assistance in case of shocks.
• Mélenchon: A socialist who will not be in favor of reforms France desperately needs
• Valls: After the 2016 Nice attack, he was booed for saying that “France will have to live with terrorism.”
• Fillon: Fillon aims to reduce the public sector and cut 500,000 civil-service jobs.  He wants the state healthcare program (securité sociale) to work better with fewer payments. Fillon is in favor of increasing the retirement age to 65. He seeks better relations with Russia.

Of the five, Germany could work best with Fillon. But his pro-Russia stance poses at least a minor problem.

Fillon vs. Le Pen

Can Le Pen Win?

I think the current odds are wildly off, just as there were in the US with Trump. Le Pen is eurosceptic, but she will not seek to gut civil-service. Her message that France throws money at the EU will resonate with some. She regularly denounces France’s bandwagoning towards the USA. Her anti-immigration message will appeal to anyone who blames immigration for loss of jobs.

Since Bottoming in November, Le Pen has steadily picked up voter approval vs. Fillon.

What happened? Fillon had to disclose more and more of his policies in his  primary vs. Sarkozy.

Many of Le Pen’s ideas are socialistic at heart. The socialists will not want an increased work week, hundreds of thousands of civil service jobs cut, etc.

In round one of the French presidential election there will be lots of mud thrown, some of it at le Pen, but most of it will go to Macron, Mélenchon, Valls, and Fillon, all wanting the second spot.

It is by no means certain le Pen makes it to the second round, but that outcome is highly likely.

And if le Pen comes out better than expected, especially if there is a big mud-fight among the others, her chances in round 2 are far better than most believe.

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Last month, we noted that there could be a trend change in progress. Not only are the prices of the metals rising (which is just a mirror-image of the dollar falling, from 27.6 milligrams of gold just before Christmas to currently under 26mg). But the scarcity of gold as we measure it, using the spread between the price of gold in the spot and futures markets, has been rising.

What could cause this? One thing is for sure. It is not about the quantity of dollars. This theory is as popular as ever, despite the absolute lack of a rising gold price from September 2011-2016. The quantity of dollars has risen steadily since then.

We write much about the frequent cases when traders place big bets on something which is wrong. But the fact of their big bets drives up the price. Suppose speculators were betting on a big increase in the quantity of dollars under Trump. Then we would see a rising price alright, but we would see a rising basis—our measure of abundance of gold to the market. This cannot explain the current market either.

So what can? Recall Keith Weiner’s gold backwardation thesis. In times of stress or crisis, it is always the bid, and never the offer, which is withdrawn. Suppose the US Geological Survey were to make a dire announcement—THEY ARE NOT SAYING THIS, SO DO NOT MISCONSTRUE!! Suppose they said that there will be an earthquake in LA, an 11 on the Richter Scale. Nothing taller than a dollhouse will be left standing.

There would be no lack of offers to sell real estate. Some would hold out hope of getting “their price”. Others would generously offer to discount it 10% or 25% from the previous level.

However, what would be conspicuously absent would be a bid. Most likely from Santiago Chile to Vancouver, British Columbia and as far east as the Mississippi River. At least until the quake hit and the danger was passed.

It is gold that will withdraw its bid on the dollar. The bid sputtered 8 years ago, and intermittently since then. Then it has mostly been steady in the past few years. And now there is a hint of it, in the February gold contract. It’s just what we call temporary backwardation—a short term blip confined to the near contract that is heading into expiry.

However, we think it is notable. It means someone or many someones are switching their preference to gold, in spite of the higher yields available in the market now. Or maybe because of it. This preference, unlike speculators buying futures with leverage, is not about betting on price. It is about safety. Gold, unlike a bond, does not default.

Is this the explanation, and the whole explanation? We don’t know. We can only report that there is a change in behavior in the market. Whereas previously—this was the pattern for years—a rising price was accompanied by rising basis. And now we have rising price and the cobasis is rising instead. Rising scarcity rather than rising abundance.

To be sure, it is still a nascent trend. There is no guarantee that this won’t go poof like it has in the past. We will keep showing the data, and calling it like we see it.

Indeed, look for a new website soon. We plan to have more charts, many more, and updated daily. Including one data series that all the experts said could not be calculated.

Below, we will look at the supply and demand fundamentals for gold and silver. But first, the price action.

The Prices of Gold and Silver

Next, this is a graph of the gold price measured in silver, otherwise known as the gold to silver ratio. It fell a bit this week.

The Ratio of the Gold Price to the Silver Price

For each metal, we will look at a graph of the basis and cobasis overlaid with the price of the dollar in terms of the respective metal. It will make it easier to provide brief commentary. The dollar will be represented in green, the basis in blue and cobasis in red.

Here is the gold graph.

The Gold Basis and Cobasis and the Dollar Price

Look at that rising red line, the cobasis (our measure of scarcity). Since mid-December, it has moved opposite to the green line, which is the price of the dollar. Previously, they had moved together. That is, a rising dollar (i.e. falling price of gold, as measured in dollars) went with rising scarcity of gold, and a falling dollar had falling scarcity.

And now they are opposite. The more the price of gold is bid up (i.e. the more the dollar is sold), the scarcer gold becomes.

On Friday, our calculated fundamental price was just about $100 over the market price.

The February cobasis is +0.12%. That is, the Feb contract is backwardated.

Now let’s look at silver.

The Silver Basis and Cobasis and the Dollar Price

In silver the cobasis is rising a bit, though it is at a much lower level. Far from backwardation, it is -.90%.

Our calculated fundamental price moved up 3 cents from last week. It is no longer above the market price, as that moved up a lot more.

© 2016 Monetary Metals

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Turkish Airlines Flight 6491, a cargo plane, has crashed into a residential area near the Kyrgyzstan capital of Bishkek, killing at least 20 people and injuring others, according to local authorities say.

The Boeing 747 was flying from Hong Kong to Manas International Airport, which is located just northwest of the Kyrgyz capital Bishkek.

As BNONews.com reports, photos and videos from the scene showed a large fire burning shortly after the crash, and subsequent images after the fire was extinguished showed that multiple buildings were completely destroyed.

At least 15 buildings were affected.

Kyrgyzstan's Ministry of Emergency Situations said more than 20 people had been killed in the crash, though it provided no further details. The health ministry had earlier put the death toll at 16, which included 15 people on the ground, of whom 6 are children.

It was not immediately clear how many people were on board the aircraft when it went down, though a Boeing 747 cargo plane typically carries a crew of at least two people. Turkish Airlines did not immediately respond to a request for information.

RT reports that among those killed are three crew members, RIA Novosti news agency reported. One of the crew members survived the crash, the local Emergencies Ministry said, as cited by TASS.

Members of the Kyrgyzstan government, including Vice prime minister Mukhammetkaliy Abulgaziev, are at the scene, according to reports.

All flights to and from Kyrgyzstan’s Manas airport have been suspended until further notice, RIA Novosti reported, citing local sources.

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