Tag: finance

Just out from the Ukraining defense ministry:

• UKRAINE ARMED FORCES CONDUCT TRAINING DRILL: DEFENSE MINISTRY
• UKRAINE DEFENSE DRILL AIMED AT TESTING `COMBAT READINESS’: MIN

It may not be an abrupt ICBM launch, but it certainly increases the odds of some unintentional, or fully intentional, provocation between the Ukrainian and Russian militaries which as we have been following over the weekend, are amassing in very disturbing numbers in Crimea and, soon, east Ukraine.

For those who missed our coverage over the past few days, here are some of the clips foreshadowing this “drill” announcement. The first clip below captured the 80th Airborne Regiment out of Lviv moving out, direction mainland, preparing to repel foreign attack.

 

The next video shows what are allegedly Buk SAM batteries deployed in the Donetsk region, a city in Eastern Ukraine which in the past week has swayed between Ukraine and Russian authority.

 

The clip below shows the 95th Airborne brigade also moving out of their barracks in Zhytomyr in western Ukraine, heading East, with an impressive deployment of trucks and APCs.

 

2S19 “Msta-S” 152mm Howitzers on the move to Crimea.

 

Finally, 20 T-64 tanks preparing to depart in Bila Tserkva, a city in central Ukraine:

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1fjfGHs Tyler Durden

Moments ago McDonalds reported its latest monthly comp store sales numbers. Printing at -1.4% for the US, this was a nearly double miss to expectations of a 0.6% decline, and was the 4th consecutive monthly drop in annual sales – the longest such stretch in the past decade and likely longer. Looking at this data, there are two observations: i) Americans, courtesy of record obesity rates, are finally getting serious about their health, and have shunned the infamous 99 cent deep fried meals or ii) courtesy of the Fed’s “Fed’s recovery”, the average American can no longer even afford sub-$1 deep fast food.

There is a third option: that it snowed… In fact it snowed so much, everywhere, and the weather was so harsh around the world, that global store sales declined by 0.3%, far below the modest 0.1% drop expected. Yup. Must have been the snow.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/N0OMZk Tyler Durden

This week brings a slew of central bank meetings: At the forefront will be the BOJ meeting on Tuesday where no changes to monetary policy are expected. However, we will be watching the commentary closely for hints to further monetary easing in the coming months. Goldman, and others, still expect the BOJ to provide additional stimulus in the second quarter of this year as the impact of the consumption tax hike on the economy becomes visible – it is that expectation that sent the USDJPY above 100 in late 2013 and any disappointment by the BOJ will certainly have an adverse impact on the all important Yen carry pair.

In terms of the key data to watch this week, the themes of recent weeks remain the same: US activity data, with retail sales and the U. Michigan Consumer sentiment survey the main releases, European inflation trends (French and German HCPI data on Thursday and Friday, respectively), and finally external balances in EM. Within that group, the latest data points for trade and current account balances in India, Turkey and South Africa will receive the most attention.

Monday, March 10

• Japan Current Account Balance (Jan): Consensus -¥1411.8B, previous -¥638.6B
• Japan Economy Watcher Survey (Feb): Consensus 54.1, previous 54.7
• Israel MPC minutes
• Canada Housing Starts (Feb): Consensus 190k saar, previous 180.1k
• Also interesting: France/Italy/Turkey IP, Israel GDP, Norway CPI

Tuesday, March 11

• Japan BOJ meeting: We and consensus expect no change to current policy measures.
• US Wholesale Trade (Jan): Consensus +0.5%, previous +0.3%
• Italy GDP (Q4, Final): Consensus +0.1% qoq, previous +0.1%
• Israel Current Account Balance (4Q): Previous US$363mn
• Also Interesting: UK/Brazil IP, Ukraine GDP, Hungary Consumer Prices

Wednesday, March 12

• US Federal Budget Balance (Feb): Consensus -$206bn, previous -$10.4bn
• UK Trade Balance (Jan): Consensus -£2200, previous –£1.0bn
• Japan Consumer Confidence (Feb): Consensus 40, previous 40.5
• Spain HCPI (Feb, final): Consensus flat yoy, previous flat
• Euro Area IP (Jan): Consensus +0.5% mom, previous -0.7%
• Turkey Current Account Balance (Jan): Consensus -US$5.3bn, previous -US$8.3bn
• South Africa Current Account Balance (4Q): Consensus -ZAR192.7, previous -ZAR232.7bn
• Brazil IPCA Inflation (Feb): Consensus +0.65% mom, previous +0.55%
• Also Interesting: India CPI, Hungary Trade Balance, Australia Housing Finance

Thursday, March 13

• US Retail Sales (Feb): Consensus +0.2%, previous -0.4%
• US Retail Sales ex autos (Feb): Consensus +0.2%, previous flat
• US Retail Sales ex autos, bldg materials, gas (Feb): Consensus +0.3%, previous -0.3%
• US Business Inventories (Jan): Consensus +0.4%, previous +0.5%
• China IP (Feb): Consensus +9.5%, previous +9.7%
• China Fixed Asset Investment (Feb): Consensus +19.4%, previous +19.6%
• Australia Unemployment Rate (Feb): Consensus 6.0%, previous 6.0%
• Australia Employment Report (Feb): Cconsensus +15k, previous -3.7k
• UK RICS Housing Market Survey (Feb): Consensus 52%, previous 53%
• France HCPI (Feb): Consensus +1.0% yoy, previous +0.8%
• Italy HCPI (Feb, final): Consensus +0.5% yoy, previous +0.5%
• Sweden Unemployment Rate (Feb): Consensus 8.4%, previous 8.6%
• Also Interesting: Spain/China/Brazil retail sales, Colombia MPC minutes, Russia Trade Balance, Mexico IP, US initial jobless claims

Friday, March 14

• US PPI (Jan): Consensus +0.2%, previous +0.2%
• US Core PPI (Jan): Consensus +0.1%, previous +0.2%
• US U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey (Mar): Consensus 82.0, previous 81.6
• Germany HCPI (Feb, final): Consensus +1.0% yoy, previous +1.0%
• Russia MPC meeting: We and consensus expect no change in interest rates following the CBR board’s decision to hike its policy rate by 150bps in an unscheduled meeting on the morning of March 3.
• India Wholesale Price Index (Feb): Consensus +4.9% yoy, previous +5.1%

The same, charted via BofA:

Source: Goldman, BofA

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1dHU1HS Tyler Durden

The disgusting images of face-mask-wearing Chinese going about their daily business in minimal visibility and lung-busting conditions are strewen across the interwebs. However, even fake sun-rises pale into significance when the full dismal reality of China's pollution problem is put in context. Perhaps the following chart is why China's latest round of reforms appear to 'declare war on pollution'.

 

h/t @conradhackett

 

And it seems that has finally tipped the Chinese over the edge to do something about it… (via Charles Kennedy via OilPrice.com)

On March 5th China’s Premier Li Keqiang declared war on pollution, outlining significant steps the Chinese government will take to improve air quality. China has suffered from truly epic smog over the last two winters, choking its cities’ inhabitants and cutting off visibility. The pollutants in the air have surpassed hazardous levels, at times jumping beyond the index that measures particulate matter.

 

"We will resolutely declare war against pollution as we declared war against poverty," Li Keqiang told the legislature, according to Reuters. The central government’s top concern has always been social stability, and the Premier’s announcement that China will take some drastic measures to improve the environment indicates that the government is beginning to worry that air pollution may spark unrest around the country.

 

Among the measures the government will take, Li said the government’s focus will be on reducing particulate matter (PM 2.5 and PM 10). The government will shut down 50,000 small coal-fired furnaces in 2014, and overhaul power plants in high intensity industries. China will also reduce steel production by 27 million tonnes in 2014 – equivalent to the total output of Italy. Also, the government will look at reforming energy pricing in an effort to pave the way to greater use of renewable energy and nuclear power. The government also hopes to remove six million high-emissions vehicles from the nation’s roads.

 

The speech comes after an announcement last month by the powerful National Development and Reform Commission (NRDC) that the government will spend $330 billion to reduce water pollution. Much of China’s agricultural land and rivers are contaminated with heavy metals.

 

Over the last several decades, China has succeeded in lifting hundreds of millions out of poverty, often described as the greatest achievement in poverty reduction in human history. China hopes to continue to grow, but now with a greater pro-environmental focus.

Of course this all sounds great until growth is affected – or a coal plant is shutdown causing contagious defaults across the shadow banking system… at which time we will see just how committed the Chinese government really is…

Here, as we explained previously, are the coal-mining-industry-based trust products…

We believe that coal mine trusts are the most likely to default over the coming months because 1) coal price has dropped sharply in recent quarters; 2) most of the issuers are private enterprises; and 3) they tend to be from provinces whose governments rely heavily on resources related income, e.g., Shanxi and Inner Mongolia.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1oF1tFv Tyler Durden

• Index of largest Chinese stocks drops to lowest since February 2009 (BBG)
• Plane-Debris Hunters Seek Suspected Aircraft Window Part (BBG)
• New-Home Building Is Shifting to Apartments (WSJ)
• Forward Guidance Risks Stoking Instability, BIS Says (BBG)
• Alleged Bitcoin Millionaire Nakamoto Gets $28,000 Donations (BBG)
• Mexico kills drug kingpin reported dead years ago (Reuters)
• Tencent to Buy 15% Stake in JD.com to Boost E-Commerce (BBG)
• Bitcoin exchange MtGox ‘faced 150,000 hack attacks every second’ (Telegraph)
• Noyer Says Stronger Euro Creates Unwarranted Pressure on Economy (BBG)
• Russian Forces Gain in Ukraine as Separatist Vote Looms (BBG)
• Afghan Taliban threaten to attack ‘sham’ poll ‘manipulated by U.S.’ (Reuters)
• Sean Connery Denied Scottish Vote Open to Foreigners (BBG)
• Pharmaceutical Scouts Seek New Star Drugs for Cancer, Diabetes (WSJ)

 

Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

* As a search for clues to the fate of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 resumed in the waters off Vietnam on Monday, air-safety and antiterror authorities on two continents appeared equally stumped about what direction the probe should take.

* Western officials are scrambling to loosen Russia’s energy stranglehold on Ukraine, the latest sign of growing pressure on Moscow to end the crisis.

The options being considered by officials from Brussels to Washington include larger exports of U.S.-made natural gas, reversing the flow of natural gas through pipelines from Western Europe back into Ukraine, and accelerating plans across Europe to buy more energy from countries other than Russia.

* A group of newspaper publishers has put the cars.com online marketplace up for sale for as much as $3 billion, hoping to cash in on booming values for e-commerce sites, people familiar with the plans said.

* Washington’s effort to push banks out of the mortgage-servicing business is propelling the handling of customers’ loans into companies such as hedge funds and nonbank financial firms.

* United Rentals Inc agreed to acquire four companies supplying pumping equipment to the energy industry and other users for a total of $780 million.

* Chinese Internet giant Tencent Holdings Ltd is joining forces with China’s second-largest e-commerce player, JD.com Inc, in a new partnership aimed at heating up competition with Alibaba Group Holdings Ltd.

* As smartphone apps undercut traditional Web searches, they threaten Google’s huge ad business. To keep up with mobile habits, Google needs to convince developers to allow links into their apps.

* An Environmental Protection Agency review board was pressured by officials at the agency to soften its challenges to an EPA plan for dealing with a highly contaminated radioactive waste site in a St. Louis suburb, a former board member and other people familiar with the matter said.

* Federal energy regulators plan to impose new security rules on electric utilities to make sure they protect major substations and other facilities critical to the operation of the electric grid.

 

FT

Interpol warned about a global security weakness after it emerged that two passengers had boarded a missing Malaysia Airlines flight with stolen passports.

Google’s Android Chief, Sundar Pichai, said the company was getting ready to use its Android software for wearable technology like sophisticated watches, fitness trackers and even “smart jackets.”

Swedish Music Company Spotify has secured a $200 million credit facility from lenders. The move has fuelled speculation it is getting ready for a multi billion dollar float.

Seth Klarman, the head of the $27 billion Baupost Group, said investors were not ready for an end to central banks reversing a five-year experiment in ultra-loose money and were underplaying risk.

Social Media group Twitter Inc is looking to increase its advertising revenue from outside of the Unites States and was prepared to be aggressive in acquiring advertising companies and forming new partnerships.

 

NYT

* BlackRock, the world’s largest asset-management company, said on Monday that it had hired Helen Zhu as a managing director and head of its China equities business.

* A federal jury on Friday found Jesse C. Litvak, a former senior trader at the Jefferies Group, guilty of deceiving his customers about the prices of mortgage-backed securities he sold to them after the financial crisis.

* New York Public Radio will announce on Monday that it has received a $10 million grant from the Jerome L. Greene Foundation, which it says is the largest single gift ever made to a public radio station.

* Microsoft Corp is betting that a new game, Titanfall, will be enough of a hit to improve sales of its flagship gaming console Xbox One, whose sales are trailing those of a machine from Sony, Microsoft’s main rival.

* The British financier Guy Hands has agreed to end a lawsuit against Citigroup Inc in the United States, though the legal battle may continue in England.

* Tencent Holdings Ltd, one of China’s biggest Internet companies, said on Monday it would pay $215 million for a 15 percent stake in the Chinese e-commerce company JD.com.

 

Canada

THE GLOBE AND MAIL

* The disappearance of a Malaysian jetliner is an “unprecedented aviation mystery,” a senior official said on Monday, with a massive air and sea search now in its third day failing to find any confirmed trace of the plane or the 239 people aboard. (http://ift.tt/NRbXXa)

* As Ukrainians brace for a tumultuous week, Russia and the United States have increased the tension over Ukraine, with President Barack Obama inviting the country’s new prime minister for a high-profile visit. (http://ift.tt/1oEYUTU)

Reports in the business section:

* Some telecommunications companies are urging the federal government to change the format of next year’s spectrum auction, arguing it is too complex and discriminates against smaller players. (http://ift.tt/1oEYWuZ)

NATIONAL POST

* Vietnamese searchers on ships worked throughout the night but could not find a rectangular object spotted on Sunday afternoon that was thought to be one of the doors of a Malaysia Airlines passenger jet that went missing more than two days ago. (http://ift.tt/NRbW5j)

* Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper departed on Sunday for South Korea, where he is widely expected to complete another long round of free-trade negotiations that his critics were denouncing as secretive and potentially bad for Canadian workers. (http://ift.tt/NRbW5n)

FINANCIAL POST

* A growing number of startups in Canada and the U.S. are capitalizing on shifting attitudes and legalities around marijuana (http://ift.tt/NRbYdr)

 

China

PEOPLE’S DAILY

– The Chinese government will send a working group on Monday morning to Malaysia for handling the aftermath of the missing Malaysian Airlines flight.

CHINA SECURITIES JOURNAL

– China’s weak foreign trade and consumer price index data for February, published over the weekend, may push the government to take some steps to boost economic growth, economists said.

– A research report by the State Information Centre under the cabinet forecast China’s gross domestic product may grow 7.5 percent in the first quarter, with the consumer price index (CPI) rising about 2.4 percent.

CHINA DAILY

– Chinese authorities are investigating the vice governor of south-western Yunnan province, according to the ruling party’s Central Commission for Discipline Inspection. Shan Peiping is suspected of serious violations of disciplines and laws, often used in China to refer to corruption.

– The number of Chinese students who will take the punishing Gaokao examination at the end of high school is set to drop to its lowest level in eight years, as increasing numbers of students look to study overseas. An estimated 55,139 students will take the test this year.

SHANGHAI SECURITIES

– China will aim to improve mechanisms to delist poorly performed listed companies this year, said Xiao Gang, Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission.

– Conditions are now mature for Chinese stock exchanges to resume the same-day stock trading system, known as T+1 system, said Gui Minjie, Chairman of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.

SHANGHAI DAILY

– Cooperation between government departments is key to tackling China’s often hazardous levels of pollution, Zhang Quan, director of Shanghai’s Environment Protection Bureau, said at the ongoing annual session of the National People’s Congress, or China’s parliament, in Beijing.

 

Britain

The Telegraph

BITCOIN EXCHANGE MTGOX ‘FACED 150,000 HACK ATTACKS EVERY SECOND’

Troubled Bitcoin exchange MtGox was reportedly attacked 150,000 times per second by hackers in the days leading up to its collapse last month

CO-OP DEFENDS PLANS FOR BUMPER CEO PAY PACKET

The Co-operative Group has defended plans to pay new Chief Executive Euan Sutherland more than 3.6 million pounds for his first year in the job.

The Guardian

U.S. ECONOMY ADDS 175,000 JOBS BUT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE RISES TO 6.7 PCT

The US unemployment rate rose to 6.7 percent in February, even as the economy added more jobs than economists had expected.

The Times

BANK SHAKE-UP SPARKS SURGE OF NEW LENDERS

Britain’s historically closed banking market is facing a competitive overhaul over the next two years, with as many as ten new lenders set to receive a licence.

ENERGY BILLS COULD GO UP IF UKRAINE TURBULENCE WORSENS

Energy bills could go up if the instability in Ukraine drags on, a minister warned yesterday, as others scrambled to deny that there was “tacit acceptance” of the Russian takeover of the Crimean peninsula.

The Independent

TWITTER UK REVENUES CLIMB TO 1 MILLION STG A WEEK

Twitter is now making more than 1 million pounds a week in revenues in Britain as its growth accelerates in its biggest market outside America, its annual report revealed today.

Sky News

TESCO PAVES WAY FOR FINANCE DIRECTOR’S EXIT

Tesco is preparing the ground for the departure of its finance director amid tensions with its chief executive as the retail giant attempts to reverse the declining fortunes of its core UK operations.

 

 

Fly On The Wall 7:00 AM Market Snapshot

ECONOMIC REPORTS

No major domestic economic reports are scheduled for today.

ANALYST RESEARCH

Upgrades

AGL Resources (GAS) upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at BMO Capital
ARM Holdings (ARMH) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at William Blair
Alcatel-Lucent (ALU) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital
Alon USA Energy (ALJ) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse
Archer Daniels (ADM) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital
Astec (ASTE) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at RW Baird
Charter (CHTR) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies
DreamWorks Animation (DWA) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at B. Riley
Edwards Lifesciences (EW) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo
Evolving Systems (EVOL) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at B. Riley
First Security (FSGI) upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at Raymond James
LHC Group (LHCG) upgraded to Sector Perform from Underperform at RBC Capital
Telefonica Brasil (VIV) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Citigroup
UIL Holdings (UIL) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill
Veeco (VECO) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS

Downgrades

athenahealth (ATHN) downgraded to Underperform from Perform at Oppenheimer
Deutsche Telekom (DTEGY) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies
DuPont Fabros (DFT) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies
Expeditors (EXPD) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at FBR Capital
Fidus Investment (FDUS) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Raymond James
KB Home (KBH) downgraded to Underperform from Buy at BofA/Merrill
Meritage Homes (MTH) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA/Merrill
National Retail Properties (NNN) downgraded to Market Perform at FBR Capital
Realty Income (O) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill
Staples (SPLS) downgraded to Hold from Buy at BB&T

Initiations

Concert Pharmaceuticals (CNCE) initiated with a Buy at UBS
Concert Pharmaceuticals (CNCE) initiated with an Outperform at JMP Securities
Eagle Pharmaceuticals (EGRX) initiated with a Buy at Cantor
Eagle Pharmaceuticals (EGRX) initiated with an Overweight at Piper Jaffray
Flexion (FLXN) initiated with an Outperform at BMO Capital
HSN, Inc. (HSNI) initiated with a Buy at UBS
Harman (HAR) initiated with an Outperform at Raymond James
Installed Building Products (IBP) initiated with a Buy at Deutsche Bank
Installed Building Products (IBP) initiated with a Neutral at SunTrust
Liberty Interactive (LINTA) initiated with a Buy at UBS
North Atlantic Drilling  (NADL) initiated with an Overweight at Barclays
Talmer Bancorp  (TLMR) initiated with an Outperform at Keefe Bruyette
Talmer Bancorp  (TLMR) initiated with an Outperform at RBC Capital

COMPANY NEWS

NII Holdings (NIHD) retains financial visors to explore strategic alternatives
Chiquita Brands (CQB)  to combine with Fyffes plc in stock-for-stock transaction
Freescale (FSL) confirmed that 20 employees were passengers on Malaysia Airlines flight MH370
AT&T (T) to lower prices on its U.S. wireless plans
T-Mobile (TMUS) doubles amount of 4G LTE data on $50 Simple Choice plan
Verizon (VZ) authorizes repurchase of up to 100M shares of common stock
Dunkin’ Brands (DNKN) CEO: Coffee prices should not increase much in 2014
Icahn (IEP) to use Twitter (TWTR), Facebook (FB) pages to disclose company news

EARNINGS

DDR Corp. (DDR) lowers FY14 FFO view to $1.14-$1.18 from $1.17-$1.21, consensus $1.20
United Rentals (URI) updates FY14 revenue view to $5.45B-$5.65B, consensus $5.39B
Dun & Bradstreet (DNB) reaffirms FY14 EPS decline 1%-5%
Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) lowers Q4 EPS view to $1.57-$1.61 from $1.60-$1.67

NEWSPAPERS/WEBSITES

Amazon (AMZN) planning to develop own computer games, Telegraph reports
Unilever (UN, UL) acquires stake in Chinese water purification company, NY Times says
Airbus (EADSY) calls former U.S. revenue goal ‘ambitious,’ FT reports
Auto makers (PEUGY, TM, DDAIF, F, GM) will try to boost profits on mini cars, WSJ says
M*Modal (MODL) could file for bankruptcy by mid-March, WSJ reports
Google’s (GOOG) Schmidt says ‘pretty sure’ data is safe, CNBC reports
Google (GOOG) faces anti-competition probe in India, TechCrunch says
JPMorgan’s (JPM) sale of private equity unit stalls, Reuters says

BARRON’S

Daimler AG (DDAIF) could see higher earnings in FY14, FY15, Barron’s says
AOL (AOL) shares could drop with network sales miss, Barron’s says
SolarCity’s (SCTY) outlook based on long-term assumptions, Barron’s says
Sony (SNE) could rise 28%, Barron’s says
MetLife (MET) could be worth over $60, Barron’s says

SYNDICATE

Achillion (ACHN) files $150M mixed securities shelf
Casella Waste (CWST) files $250M mixed securities shelf
Mattel (MAT) files automatic mixed securities shelf
Paramount Gold & Silver (PZG) files $100M mixed securities shelf
Quintiles (Q) files to sell 15M shares of common stock for holders
Weatherford (WFT) files automatic mixed securities shelf

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1g0sYEd Tyler Durden

Just when it seemed that the ever deteriorating situation in the Crimean, the unexpected plunge in Chinese exports which has sent the Yuan reeling again, the Copper slam which is down some 10% in two days, and the outright collapse in Japan’s capital flows, not to mention the worst GDP print under Abe, may not be quite “priced in” by a market that is now expecting well beyond perfection in perpetuity, further shown by Goldman over the weekend which reprorted that revenue multiples have never been greater, and futures may finally dip, here came – right on schedule – the USDJPY levitation liftathon, which boosted futures from down 10 to barely unchanged, and which should be green by the second USDJPY ramp some time just after 8 am.

While the risk averse sentiment which was evident overnight in Asia as a result on weaker than expected trade data carried over into the European session and resulted in stocks opening lower, the cautious sentiment gradually reversed as market participants sought to capitalise on the sell-off. The sharp slide in Chinese exports and data overall was in part attributed to China clamping down on fake invoicing, as well as copper financing, also coincided with iron ore entering bear market territory, which in turn meant that basic material related stocks underperformed this morning. However the flight to quality was short lived and stocks have gradually moved off lows, with USD/JPY also recovering overnight losses, since it is widely expected that China will hit its growth targets which the state announced only last week. At the same time, Bunds were able to close the opening gap higher and USTs moved back to flat. There was little in terms of tier 1 macroeconomic releases this morning and going forward, market participants will get to digest comments by Draghi and Coeure, while the BoE will conduct its first APF op this week (part of Gilt reinvestment programme)

Bulletin overnight summary from Bloomberg and RanSquawk:

Commodities under pressure following the release of Chinese Trade Balance data, which itself was attributed to China clamping down on fake invoicing, as well as copper financing.

However the consequent cautious sentiment was short lived in Europe this morning and stocks managed to recover off lowest levels of the session, with Bunds also closing the opening gap higher.

Eurogroup Chairman Dijsselbloem said that Greece will not get the next bailout loan tranche unless an agreement with the Troika is reached.

Treasuries little changed, 10Y yields 2.794% after closing at highest since Jan. 22 Friday following stronger than forecast payrolls; focus on retail sales tomorrow, $64b 3Y/10Y/30Y auctions.

China’s exports plunged 18.1% in February vs expectations for gain of 7.5% while producer prices fell 2%, the most since July

China’s broadest measure of new credit trailed analysts’ estimates in February, indicating a slowdown in shadow banking following the near-default of a trust investment product

The yuan fell after the PBOC bank cut the currency’s fixing by 0.18%, most since July 2012

Russian forces advanced in Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula, ignoring Western calls to halt a military takeover before the region’s separatist referendum

Investigators from nine countries are struggling to solve the mystery of a missing Malaysian jet, as Vietnamese forces today failed to find the airplane debris they had spotted yesterday off the country’s southern coast

The amount of debt globally has soared more than 40% to $100t since the first signs of the financial crisis as governments borrowed to pull their economies out of recession and companies took advantage of record low interest rates

Philly Fed President Charles Plosser said recent encouraging economic data isn’t enough to change the pace of the central bank’s asset purchases

Sovereign yields mostly lower. EU peripheral spreads widen. Asian equities fall, with Nikkei-1%, Shanghai -2.9%. European equity markets gain, U.S. stock-index futures decline. WTI crude, gold and copper lower

US Event Calendar:

• No Major events
• POMO – 11:00am: Fed to purchase $2.25b-$2.75b notes in 2021-2024 sector

Asian Headlines

Chinese CPI (Feb) Y/Y 2.0% vs. Exp. 2.1% (Prev. 2.5%), PPI (Feb) Y/Y -2.0% vs. Exp. -1.9% (Prev. -1.6%)
Chinese Trade Balance (Feb) (USD) Y/Y -22.99bln vs. Exp. 14.50bln (Prev. 31.86bln, Rev. 31.87bln)
Exports (Feb) Y/Y -18.1% vs. Exp. 7.5% (Prev. 10.6%)
Imports (Feb) Y/Y 10.1% vs. Exp. 7.6% (Prev. 10.0%)
Japanese GDP SA (Q4 F) Q/Q 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.3%)
GDP Annualized SA (Q4 F) Q/Q 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.9% (Prev. 1.0%)

EU & UK Headlines

ECB’s Noyer says rate cuts not ‘too controversial’ for the ECB, adding that economic data has been inline with baseline scenario and economic conditions are inline with monetary policy at this stage. ECB’s Noyer also said that he fully agrees with BUBA Chief that suspension of sterilisation is one of the tools ECB could use if needed. (RTRS/BBG)

ECB set to give Eurozone banks details of asset quality test approach on dealing with bad loans, according to sources. (RTRS)

Eurogroup Chairman Dijsselbloem said that Greece will not get the next bailout loan tranche unless an agreement with the Troika is reached. (Ta Nea)

– Over the weekend the Greek government and Troika officials reached an agreement on the capital needs of the country’s banks. (Athens News Agency)

– The Eurogroup are meeting in Brussels today to discuss the Greek economic adjustment program; Troika are set to return to Greece on Wednesday March 12th.

US Headlines

Republicans are challenging Barack Obama to use America’s burgeoning energy production to stand up to Russia by calling on the president to loosen limits on US oil and gas exports to Europe. (FT)

Equities

French CAC index has outperformed its peers since the get-go, with Bouygues trading up 6.5% following reports that the company has agreed to sell its mobile network and much of its spectrum to Iliad for up to EUR 1.8bln as a way to head off competition regulators’ concerns about its pending bid for Vivendi’s SFR. Also of note, Rolls Royce shares opened up 2% following reports that Daimler will sell a 50% stake valued at GBP 1.9bln in an engine joint venture to partner with Rolls Royce holdings and to invest in its automotive and truck business. Despite the reversal in sentiment, basic materials remained the worst performing sector, with precious and base metal prices also trading lower.

FX

The risk averse sentiment which was evident overnight in Asia gradually ebbed, which in turn allowed the commodity linked AUD/USD to recover overnight losses, with EUR/CHF also moving into positive territory as market participants downplayed the implications of the latest Chinese Trade data on long-term outlook for the economy.

SNB’s Chairman Jordan said the SNB will not exclude tools like negative rates; the SNB will not rule out taking further steps to ensure its monetary-policy stance remains appropriate. (BBG/Basler Zeitung)

Commodities

Base and precious metals have seen substantial weakness in overnight trade, retaining the trend seen on Friday, with iron ore entering a bear markets, copper plunging to multi-month lows and gold down following the release of Chinese trade balance data overnight.

Chinese demand for gold is seen as falling 17% this quarter, from 250 mt from 300 mt, as prices for the metal rally, according to the China Gold Association. (BBG)

Morgan Stanley lowered it 2014 average gold price forecast by 11.6% to USD 1160/oz and cut its 2015 forecast by 12.5% to USD 1138/oz. (RTRS)

Russian forces have tightened their control of Crimea on Sunday in spite of warnings from the US and its allies not to continue its military escalation or attempts to annex the peninsula. Russian troops took over a Ukrainian border post in the west of the region, detaining 30 Ukrainian troops, and now occupy a dozen such posts, according to the Ukrainian border guard. (FT)

Chinese Crude Oil Imports (Feb) 23.05mln tonnes, up 11% Y/Y, down 18.1% M/M. (DJN)

Libya’s El Sharara oilfield has resumed production, with output gradually increasing, according to NOC. (BBG)

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1fiEgIC Tyler Durden

Today we live in an age of universal deceit, and as 1984 author George Orwell stated, “In an age of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.”  I would amend that statement in regard to financial well-being to read, “In an age of universal deceit, not knowing the truth is a sure path to financial suicide”. Today, far too many people put all their faith in deceitful politicians and bankers to tell them the truth and consequently are dreadfully misinformed. Below, I present to you “The Five Elements to Understanding Truth About Everything”.  In this video, I have come up with five key elements of human nature that one must understand if one desires to really understand the truth about anything. I speak about each of these separate five elements at length.

 

 

Please read the provided video description on YouTube to gleam the most benefit from this video

Those that aren’t afraid of seeking out the truth will always be more successful in life than those that shun truth or are too afraid to confront the truth. The people in power in top government and banking positions ALL know the truth, so how can it be possibly be advantageous to us to know as little as possible about the breadth of knowledge that they possess? Yet, because the easiest path to take is the path of least resistance provided by the powers that be in their daily bread and circus act, this is exactly the path the majority of us unfortunately choose to take. It is the courageous ones that seek out the truth in the face of ridicule and the angry misinformed opposition of those ruled by emotions instead of facts that are the ones most likely to thrive in uncertain and increasingly risky economic times. One must take the time, if one is to survive these currency wars being enforced upon the world by global bankers, to understand the paradigms used to mislead us and then, learn how to parlay these disadvantages into our advantage. Learn to do this, and the most entrepreneurial of us can thrive even during disastrous economic times.

 

Here are three quick examples of the universal deceit of which I speak.

 

Patrick Rock, a close aid of UK Prime Minister David Cameron, of whom Cameron even stated “play[ed] an important role at Downing Street” was recently arrested on child-pornography related charges. What was Rock’s role at Downing Street? – ironically, to craft child porn prevention laws.

 

In the political hemisphere, CNN reported headlines, “What can Obama do about Russia’s invasion of Crimea?” while other Western headlines blared “Ukraine says Russia sent 16,000 troops to Crimea.” These headlines run in direct opposition to the following facts: In 1997, Russia & Ukraine signed a Partition Treaty that allowed the Russian Black Sea Fleet and up to 25,000 troops, 24 artillery systems with a caliber smaller than 100mm, 132 armored vehicles, and 22 military planes to remain in Crimea until 2017. This agreement was extended in 2010 until 2042.

 

Thus, any journalist that reports that Russia has invaded Ukraine with 16,000 troops is simply peddling propaganda and serving the same role as Patrick Rock, executing the exact opposite of what their pledged profession demands. Despite what opinions you may have regarding the Russia and US/EU/IMF conflict in Ukraine, to state that Russia has invaded Ukraine is as misleading as running a headline today stating that the US has just invaded Japan with 25,000 troops although the US is allowed 25,000 troops to occupy 14 separate military installations in Okinawa, Japan at the present time. Again, whether or not you agree with the presence of US troops in Okinawa is a completely different topic, as many Okinawans called for the departure of all US troops after 3 US military servicemen infamously raped a 12-year old Japanese girl repeatedly and left her for dead in 1995. However, as the agreements stand now, it would be just as misleading to call the 25,000 US troops present in Okinawa “an invasion of Japan” as it is to call the presence of Russian troops in Ukraine an “invasion of Ukraine”.

 

But today, politicians and bankers often say “to hell with the truth” in pursuit of their misanthropic agendas. After all, war is the ultimate racket that distracts people from the truth of a degrading global economic situation. In the US, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen has been very vocally lauding the decline in US unemployment to 6.7% as she testified before US Congress in these exact words: “The unemployment rate has fallen nearly a percentage point since the middle of last year and 1-1/2 percentage points since the beginning of the current asset purchase program.” However, here is the truth about unemployment in the United States. There are about 243 million Americans of working age. At the beginning of 2014, there were 102.2 million Americans of working age that were not working. Does 102.2 divided by 243 yield an unemployment rate of 6.7%? Of course the unemployment rate depends upon the methodology used to calculate the unemployed, but dividing the number of out-of-job Americans by the number of Americans of working age seems like a fair way to derive this rate to me. And why does Martha Stewart go to jail for perjury for 5 months with an additional 2 years of supervision after her jail release, while the Chairwoman of the largest private bank in the United States can lie to US Congress with impunity? (Remember, Martha Stewart went to jail for lying to Federal Prosecutors and NOT for inside trading as many still wrongly believe.)

 

At the end of the day, only those that have the balance, the calmness and the wisdom to not be misled by their emotions and to see the truth will survive these currency wars. For those willing to tackle the truth head on, many of these people are not deterred or afraid of how gloomy this truth may be, and instead, knowledge of this truth only increases their resolve to take the necessary action right now. For this group, their future will be markedly more optimistic than those that continue to avoid the truth for reasons as varied as “taking the buried head in the sand approach” to “ignorance as a means to avoid the guilt of being part of the problem”. Those that have the courage to act upon the truth will flourish as these currency wars escalate while the rest will suffer great sorrows as a consequence of either their refusal to process the truth when presented with the truth or their fear of confronting truth. While the means of escapism are endless today, I tend to believe that the majority of people in the world know that their governments and bankers are lying to them about the “recovering economy” meme. Most know from direct experience or the witnessed suffering of family and friends that this meme is but a huge lie. However, equally crippling to their financial future is the inability to act in confronting this reality. Most do nothing and just hope that miraculously the economy will recover and things will get better, instead of learning as much as they can right now about what they must do to position themselves to flourish as the global economy worsens over the next few years.

 

Most continue to believe the commercial bankers’ lies about diversity being the key to wealth preservation and concentration being risky, even though concentrated investments in gold and silver assets over the last 7 years have crushed the performance of diversified US S&P portfolios. So much for diversification being the wise strategy over an extended period of time. Sure, last year was a terrible year for gold and silver investors. That is a fact. However, a more important fact is that those that get caught up in the minutiae of these global currency wars and that are unable to piece together the big picture are those that are eternally and easily distracted from realizing the truth by the one-year schemes conjured up by the very politicians and bankers they detest. Those that have the courage to tackle what will undoubtedly become even leaner economic times in future years around the world right now, as I urged people to do at the end of last year (All the Big Banks are Saying that Gold Will Crash in 2014, But That’s Not What Will Happen), and that have the courage to learn about the truth right now will be the only ones that flourish.

 

 

Other related SmartKnowledgeU videos that may interest you:

Why Bankers Want Control of Ukraine

The History of Gold and Silver Clearly Tell Us Where it is Heading in the Future

Does Your Gang Affiliation Prevent You From Thinking Clearly?

The Age of Deceit: The Misappropriation of Our Freedoms

 

About the Author: JS Kim is the Managing Director of SmartKnowledgeU, a fiercely independent research and consulting firm that concentrates on gold and silver as a means of protecting one’s assets in the ongoing global currency wars. A $1,000,000 investment in our Crisis Investment Opportunities portfolio since our launch in June, 2007 has outperformed a $1,000,000 investment in the diversified S&P 500 index by a whopping $597,258, despite the S&P 500’s phenomenal 29.6% yield and gold and silver’s signficant drops of -29% and    -37% last year (a nearly $600,000 of additional yield in a tax-deferred account in less than 7 years on an initial $1MM investment in our concentrated SmartKnowledgeU portfolio over the diversification approach, click here for the performance chart). In our opinion, the windows of opportunity in 2014 to position oneself for the future correctly will be limited only to those willing to aggressively seek out the truth.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1fZDUBW smartknowledgeu

It would appear the fecal matter is starting to come into contact with the rotating object in China. Worrying headlines are beginning to mount on the back of real economic events (an actual default and a collapse in exports):

• *COPPER IN SHANGHAI FALLS BY 5% DAILY LIMIT TO 46,670 YUAN A TON
• *CHINA YUAN WEAKENS 0.46% TO 6.1564 VS U.S. DOLLAR
• *YUAN DROPS MOST SINCE 2008

Aside from that Iron ore prices are crumbling, Asian stocks are dropping, Chinese corporate bond prices aee falling at their fastest pace in almost 4 months, and all this as 7-day repo drops to one-year lows (as banks hoard liquidity).

 

Item #1: The forced unwind of massive rehypothecated copper lots related to concerns over shadow-banking defaults sparked by the fact that Chaori was allowed to actually default…

 

Pushing Shanghai copper limit down…

 

Item #2: Iron Ore prices collapsing for similar reasons (as borrowers rotated to Steel and by-products for collateral on their shadow bank lending facilities)…

 

Item #3: Corporate bond prices are dropping at their fastest in 4 months…

 

Item #4: Repo rates are at near-record lows as banks hoard liquidity…

 

Item #5: USDCNY is tumbling as PBOC efforts to unwind the massvley one-sided carry trade appear to be getting out of control…

 

Item #6: AsiaPac stocks are down by their most in almost 6 weeks…

 

Item #7: Even US equity futures are unhappy (with JPY carry having caught up and now dumping again)…

 

Bonus Item: Copper-to-Gold ratios are collapsing…

 

Charts: Bloomberg

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1k8HZJ7 Tyler Durden

Over the past three years there has been endless debate over whether the Fukushima radioactive fallout is hitting the US west coast, or if, as the media spin would have it, it is largely isolated, and best to just take their word for it for the simple reason that no federal agency currently samples Pacific Coast seawater for radiation. The answer may finally be in sight, and it is not a pleasant one: USA Today reports that “very low levels of radiation from the Fukushima nuclear disaster likely will reach ocean waters along the U.S. West Coast next month, scientists are reporting. Current models predict that the radiation will be at extremely low levels that won’t harm humans or the environment, said Ken Buesseler, a chemical oceanographer at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution who presented research on the issue last week.

Hopefully these “models” are better at forecasting than the Fed’s (which are operated by three supercomputers), and the definition of “minimum” hasn’t undergone the same material revisions as did “maximum” in the context of the maximum permitted radiation dose falling on Tepco workers in the days when Japan desperately was lying every day about the magnitude of the radioactive disaster. Obviously, it is one thing to make up predictions for the sake of avoiding a panic, it is something entirely different to have empirical data: “I’m not trying to be alarmist,” Buesseler said. “We can make predictions, we can do models. But unless you have results, how will we know it’s safe?”

As if Buesseler doesn’t know that any actual data that reveals alarming results will be seasonally adjusted, and then all excess radiation will be blamed on the “harsh winter weather.”

Mockery of economists and other idiots aside, here are the facts on the prevailing models:

There are three competing models of the Fukushima radiation plume, differing in amount and timing. But all predict that the plume will reach the West Coast this summer, and the most commonly cited one estimates an April arrival, Buesseler said.

 

A report presented last week at a conference of the American Geophysical Union’s Ocean Sciences Section showed that some Cesium 134 has already has arrived in Canada, in the Gulf of Alaska area.

 

Cesium 134 serves as a fingerprint for Fukushima, Buesseler said.

 

“The models show it will reach north of Seattle first, then move down the coast,” Buesseler said.

The good news:

By the time it gets here, the material will be so diluted as to be almost negligible, the models predict. Radiation also decays. Cesium 134, for example, has a half-life of two years, meaning it will have half its original intensity after that period.

Or rather, make that the spin: after all as the paper notes, West Coast states are winding down their tsunami debris response efforts. “Oregon’s coastline is seeing less debris from the tsunami this winter than in the past two years, Oregon State Parks spokesman Chris Havel said. If that doesn’t change, officials likely will disband a task force that was mobilized to deal with the debris. Last year, Washington suspended its marine debris reporting hotline.”

One can be certain that no amount of reality, or radioactivity, will be allowed to spoil the budgeted plans that involve a return to normalcy even as the Fukushima power plant is nowhere near contained today, than it was the day after the historic catastrophe from March 2011.

And in case that is not yet clear, here is exhibit A: a Reuters report on Fukushima children that assigns increasingly abnormal pathologies not on the fallout from the Fukushima explosion but, get this, on their staying indoors!

Some of the smallest children in Koriyama, a short drive from the crippled Fukushima nuclear plant, barely know what it’s like to play outside — fear of radiation has kept them in doors for much of their short lives.  Though the strict safety limits for outdoor activity set after multiple meltdowns at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear plant in 2011 have now been eased, parental worries and ingrained habit mean many children still stay inside.

 

And the impact is now starting to show, with children experiencing falling strength, lack of coordination, some cannot even ride a bicycle, and emotional issues like shorter tempers, officials and educators say.

 

“There are children who are very fearful. They ask before they eat anything, ‘does this have radiation in it?’ and we have to tell them it’s okay to eat,” said Mitsuhiro Hiraguri, director of the Emporium Kindergarten in Koriyama, some 55 km (35 miles) west of the Fukushima nuclear plant. “But some really, really want to play outside. They say they want to play in the sandbox and make mud pies. We have to tell them no, I’m sorry. Play in the sandbox inside instead.”

You see, the falling strength, the lack of coordination, and the behavioral changes three years after the explosion, are all due to children not being allowed to play in Fukushima’s spilling over radioactive cooling water, where as of a month ago, record amounts of Cesium were recorded. Nothing to do at all with slightly “abnormal” levels of alpha, beta and gamma radiation in the air.

This continues:

“Compared to before the disaster, you can certainly see a fall in the results of physical strength and ability tests – things like grip strength, running and throwing balls,” said Toshiaki Yabe, an official with the Koriyama city government.

 

Hiraguri said that stress was showing up in an increase of scuffles, arguments and even sudden nosebleeds among the children, as well as more subtle effects.

 

“There’s a lot more children who aren’t all that alert in their response to things. They aren’t motivated to do anything,” he said.

Yes: the nosebleeds and the lack of alertness too are not due to the radiation, but all entirely due to being kept away from it. We suppose the proper advice here is: to avoid sudden nosebleeds, short tempers, and falling strength, let you children run like the wind, if possible into the Third reactor’s cooling tanks.

One really can’t make this pathetic, deadly BS up.

So keeping in the theme of this lunacy, and coming soon to a Orwellian banana dictatorship near you: the poor will be taxed more, because it is their fault they did not invest the money they don’t have, in Glorious Bernank’s attempt to make everything better for everyone. Remember: the Chairsatan was just paid in one hour more than in one full year at the Fed to reveal that “his natural inclination would be to try to help the average person.”

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1fYShXj Tyler Durden

 

We pointed out Wednesday that the Estonian foreign minister claims that the new Ukrainian coalition deployed snipers to discredit the former government of Ukraine.

We documented Thursday that snipers are a common form of false flag terrorism.

Interestingly, while the new Ukranian coalition denies that it deployed snipers, it is now accusing someone else – Russia – of deploying the snipers as a false flag event to create chaos.

AP reports today:

One of the biggest mysteries hanging over the protest mayhem that drove Ukraine’s president from power: Who was behind the snipers who sowed death and terror in Kiev?

 

That riddle has become the latest flashpoint of feuding over Ukraine — with the nation’s fledgling government and the Kremlin giving starkly different interpretations of events that could either undermine or bolster the legitimacy of the new rulers.

 

Ukrainian authorities are investigating the Feb. 18-20 bloodbath, and they have shifted their focus from ousted President Viktor Yanukovych’s government to Vladimir Putin’s Russia — pursuing the theory that the Kremlin was intent on sowing mayhem as a pretext for military incursion. Russia suggests that the snipers were organized by opposition leaders trying to whip up local and international outrage against the government.

 

The government’s new health minister — a doctor who helped oversee medical treatment for casualties during the protests — told The Associated Press that the similarity of bullet wounds suffered by opposition victims and police indicates the shooters were trying to stoke tensions on both sides and spark even greater violence, with the goal of toppling Yanukovych.

 

“I think it wasn’t just a part of the old regime that (plotted the provocation), but it was also the work of Russian special forces who served and maintained the ideology of the (old) regime,” Health Minister Oleh Musiy said.

 

***

 

On Tuesday, Interior Minister Arsen Avakov signaled that investigators may be turning their attention away from Ukrainian responsibility.

 

“I can say only one thing: the key factor in this uprising, that spilled blood in Kiev and that turned the country upside down and shocked it, was a third force,” Avakov was quoted as saying by Interfax. “And this force was not Ukrainian.”

 

***

 

Musiy, who spent more than two months organizing medical units on Maidan, said that on Feb. 20 roughly 40 civilians and protesters were brought with fatal bullet wounds to the makeshift hospital set up near the square. But he said medics also treated three police officers whose wounds were identical.

 

Forensic evidence, in particular the similarity of the bullet wounds, led him and others to conclude that snipers were targeting both sides of the standoff at Maidan — and that the shootings were intended to generate a wave of revulsion so strong that it would topple Yanukovych and also justify a Russian invasion.

Since Russia supported Yanukovych, it makes no sense that the people who ordered the sniper attacks would want to topple Yanukovych and launch a Russian invasion. Specifically, they would either want to overthrow the Russia-friendly Yanukovych or launch a Russian invasion to support a Russia-friendly Ukrainian government.

In any event, AP continues:

Russia has used the uncertainty surrounding the bloodshed to discredit Ukraine’s current government. During a news conference Tuesday, Putin addressed the issue in response to a reporter’s question, suggesting that the snipers in fact “may have been provocateurs from opposition parties.”

 

***

 

A former top security official with Ukraine’s main security agency, the SBU, waded into the confusion, in an interview published Thursday with the respected newspaper Dzerkalo Tizhnya. Hennady Moskal, who was deputy head of the agency, told the newspaper that snipers from the Interior Ministry and SBU were responsible for the shootings, not foreign agents.

 

“In addition to this, snipers received orders to shoot not only protesters, but also police forces. This was all done in order to escalate the conflict, in order to justify the police operation to clear Maidan,” he was quoted as saying.

In other words, everyone agrees that the snipers were false flag terrorists sewing chaos and confusion … they only disagree about who the responsible party is.

In related news …

Americans Overwhelmingly Oppose US Intervention in Ukraine, Syria, Iran … Or Anywhere Else

Polls show that Americans are overwhelmingly opposed to U.S. military involvement in:

• Ukraine

• Syria

• Iran

• Or anywhere else

Indeed, a poll from Pew in December found that a majority of Americans – more than ever before in Pew’s 50-year history of polling this question – think the U.S. “should mind its own business internationally and let other countries get along as best they can on their own.”

We’re sick of war …

(And we’ve been so for years.)

 

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1lMAZVx George Washington