Tag: finance

This was one of the all too real Bloomberg headlines posted overnight: “Asian Shares Rally as U.S. Manufacturing Data Beats Estimates.” Odd: are they refering to the crashing Philly Fed, or the just as crashing Empire Fed data? Wait, it was the C-grade MarkIt PMI that nobody ever looks at, except to confirm that where everyone else sees snow, the PMI saw sunshine and growth. Remember: if the data is weak, it’s the snow; if it’s strong, it’s the recovery. Odder still: one would think Asian shares care about manufacturing data of, say, China. Which happens to be in Asia, and which two nights ago crashed to the lowest in months. Or maybe that only impact the SHCOMP which dropped 1.2% while all other regional markets simply do what the US and Japan do – follow the USDJPY, which at one point overnight rose as high as 102.600, and brought futures to within inches of their all time closing high. Sadly, it is this that passes for “fundamental” analysis in this broken market new normal…

In other news,, heading into the North American cross over stocks in Europe are seen somewhat mixed, with the FTSE-100 index outperforming amid touted reinvestment flows by passive fund managers related to Vodafone/Verizon M&A deal. Financials and basic materials underperformed this morning, weighed on by negative broker recommendation by JPM on Glencore and uncertainty surrounding the future on the OMT programme. Of note, expiring equity options throughout the day will likely lead to higher than avg. volatility both in Europe and the US.

Looking elsewhere, the cautious price action supported Bunds, which also benefited from touted short covering and month-end related flows, with USTs also better bid from better buying out of Asia. Going forward, market participants will get to digest the release of the latest inflation data from Canada and existing home sales data from the US.

Headline bulletin summary from Bloomberg and RanSquawk

• Treasuries headed for third consecutive weekly loss amid gains in stocks and as investors attributed weaker-than-forecast economic data to snow and ice storms across the United States.
• China’s stocks fell the most in six weeks, while the yuan headed for its biggest weekly slide since 2011 as a manufacturing slowdown fueled concerns the economic expansion is weakening
• Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych agreed to a plan for resolving the political crisis that threatened to split the country after meeting through the night with  European officials
• Yanukovych in statement on web site calls for early presidential elecion, forming government of “national trust”
• U.K. retail sales fell more than economists forecast in January with the biggest drop in almost two years, led by lower demand at food and clothing stores
• The Obama administration plans to propose new limits on multinational companies’ ability to take advantage of gaps between countries’ tax rules, an administration official said
• Matteo Renzi, Italy’s prime minister-designate, plans to meet President Giorgio Napolitano today to accept the mandate to form a new government, an official in his Democratic Party said
• Sovereign yields mostly lower. EU peripheral spreads tighter. Asian stocks mostly higher; Nikkei +2.88%, Shanghai -1.2%. European stocks mixed, U.S. stock-index futures rise. WTI crude, copper and gold

US Event Calendar

• 10:00am: Existing Home Sales, Jan., est. 4.68m (prior 4.87m); m/m, Jan., est. -3.9% (prior 1%)
• 1:10pm: Fed’s Bullard speaks on economy in St. Louis, Mo.
• 1:45pm: Fed’s Fisher speaks in Austin, Texas Supply
• 11:00am: POMO – Fed to purchase $1b-$1.25b in 2036-2044 sector

Asian Headlines

Bank of Japan minutes from January 21st-22nd meeting stated that many members called for a need to clearly explain that QE is not strictly limited to 2-year time frame. Members also agreed that the positive economic cycle is to remain in place after the sales tax hike and that inflation expectations are rising on the whole. (BBG/RTRS)

EU & UK Headlines

UK Retail Sales Ex Auto (Jan) M/M -1.5% vs Exp. -1.2% (Prev. 2.8%, Rev. 2.7%) – According to ONS, Jan. weakness due to supermarket sales, but strong sales of furniture, electricals and DIY goods.

UK Public Finances (PSNCR) (Jan) M/M -25.4bln vs. Exp. -31.0bln (Prev. 9.0bln, Rev. to 9.1bln)

Analysts at BNP Paribas believe that the ECB is to start QE with EUR 300-500bln worth of bond purchases in H2 2014 to combat deflation risks, adding that Euro government bond markets will probably start pricing in ECB QE from now on.

Fitch affirmed Austria at AAA; outlook stable, and affirmed Ireland at BBB+; outlook stable. (BBG) Moody’s are due to issue their judgement on the Spanish sovereign rating today – they are currently rated Baa3; Outlook stable.

Barclays preliminary pan-Euro agg month-end extensions: (+0.07y) (12m avg. +0.07y)

Barclays preliminary Sterling month-end extensions:(+0.05y) (12m avg. +0.06y)

US Headlines

US Treasuries remain a major investment target for China’s foreign exchange reserves, with China facing the problem that there is no better tool for investment than US bonds, according to unsourced reports. (People’s Daily) This week’s TIC flow data showed China sold USD 48bln of Treasuries in January – the most in one month for two years.

Barclays preliminary US Tsys month-end extensions:(+0.12y) (12m avg. +0.07y)

Equities

French listed Kering shares came under pressure following the release of somewhat less than impressive earnings, with particular focus on weak earnings by Gucci which posted slowest sales growth in four years. Elsewhere, RBS shares rose just over 2% following reports that the bank is to cut at least 30,000 jobs in next 3-5 years, including 18,500 jobs from

Citizens sale in US and 11,000 jobs in investment banking.

Hewlett-Packard shares traded up just over 2% in after-market hours yesterday after the company reported Q1 Adj. EPS USD 0.90 vs. Exp. USD 0.84. Q1 rev. USD 28.15bln vs. exp. USD 27.18bln.

FX

The release of weaker than expected UK retail sales was offset by better than expected public finances data, which in turn prevented a sustained move lower by GBP. At the same time, GBP remained supported by touted M&A related flow (Vodafone/Verizon). USD/JPY failed to hold onto gains made overnight, as out performance by Bunds during the first half of the European trading session buoyed demand for safe-haven assets.

Commodities

Iraq plans to cut Kirkuk March crude exports to 16 cargoes, plans to export 250,323bpd in March vs. 319,643bpd in February. (BBG)

Chinese January Iranian imports are at 564,536bpd, up 82% Y/Y and 11.2% M/M. (RTRS)

According to a senior US military officer, China has been training for a ‘short, sharp war’ against Japan in the East China Sea. (FT) The officer based the comments on war games conducted by Chinese forces in 2013, said to prepare the PLA for any seizure of the Senkaku Islands.

Brazil has temporarily reduced its Aluminium import tariff, to 2%, down from 6%, valid for 180 days. (MetalBulletin) China Jan. primary aluminium imports rose 214.7% Y/Y to 54,878 tonnes. (RTRS)

* * *

We conclude with the traditional recap from Jim Reid of DB

With the weather still dominating discussion about the data, the key release yesterday was the better than expected US Markit PMI (56.7 vs 53.6 expected) which provided some hope that the recovery will survive the record cold patch recently seen in the US. Markets picked up after this and recovered losses from the earlier weak Chinese and slightly weak European data. There was also a poor US Philly Fed (-6.3 v 8.0) in what was the first negative print in 9 months, but the report did again cite weather as a factor. Elsewhere in the US, inflation remained tame with the latest January reading coming basically in line with expectations (+0.1% mom/+1.6%yoy).

Data aside some major M&A news in the Tech space also added to the bid tone. The S&P 500 (+0.60%) pretty much retraced all of Wednesday’s losses with all ten major sectors finishing higher on the day. Facebook’s US$19bn acquisition of mobile messaging application WhatsApp clearly dominated the corporate headlines. The news certainly created a lot of buzz but to put things in a little bit of context, WhatsApp’s US$19bn valuation is greater than the market caps of some major household names such as News Corp, Alcoa and Tiffany. In fact if WhatsApp was a stand-alone company in the S&P 500 index, it would be ranked somewhere around 228 out of 500 in terms of market cap. Asian markets overnight are following the US lead with majority of the regional bourses in the green. The Nikkei, KOSPI and the NIFTY are up +2.8%, +1.3% and +0.8% as we type. China is key exception with the Shanghai Composite (-1.4%) suffering its biggest one day drop since early January. The Chinese
weakness is also reflected in its currency with the CNY set for its biggest fall since September 2011 in offshore trading. The flash manufacturing PMI weakness is perhaps still influencing sentiment there.

Back to yesterday it was a relatively softer day for European assets (Stoxx600 -0.05%, DAX -0.43%) although they did recover from the morning lows. Much of this was perhaps due to the disappointing February euro-area flash PMI which was largely dragged down by France. At the composite level the index fell 0.2pts to 52.7 whilst the market was looking for a small increase to 53.1. Notably the fall on the manufacturing index (53.0 v 54.0 prev) appears consistent with the weakening trend we’ve seen from China. Indeed at the country level, the French composite index fell 1.3pts to 47.6, which more than offset a stronger reading in Germany (up 0.6pt to 56.1). The bigger than expected decline in the latest January French CPI (-0.6% mom v -0.4% mom consensus) was also a worry.

Moving on to the EM side, Ukraine yesterday saw violent clashes erupt once again in the capital city of Kiev yesterday while EU foreign ministers also approved sanctions against the country. The sanctions include asset freezes and visa bans for those deemed responsible for violence. The ministers also agreed to ban exports to Ukraine of equipment that could be used for internal repression, but a proposal to ban arms exports to the country was said to have been dropped. Away from Ukraine, the riots in Venezuela continued yesterday which saw six more dead with the hotspots largely concentrated in the western Andean states of Tachira and Merida, which have been especially volatile since hardline opposition leaders called supporters onto the streets in early February.

Looking ahead we have a relatively muted day as far as key economic data
is concerned. Existing home sales in the US and Germany PPI are perhaps
the notable releases. The Fed’s Fisher and Bullard are also scheduled
to speak at some point later today. The G20 finance ministers meeting in
Sydney this weekend will also be a key near term event in the region so
expect plenty of headlines.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1dX3XOi Tyler Durden

From Paul Mylchreest of Monument Securities

Coffee was up another 12% yesterday! After introducing myself to ADM’s Sugar trading team, I thought I’d better introduce myself to our Coffee team pronto, who were equally friendly I have to say. Feedback  – besides the dry weather in Brazil, there are also unsubstantiated rumours of a trading house getting in to trouble – which might not be surprising given the scale of the recent move. Here is the Coffee chart since the beginning of 2013.

 

Not sure if ADM trades Lean Hogs (must be out of Chicago if we do), but did you see them fly (!) during the last couple of days? Terrible.

 

We highlighted the CRB/BLS Spot Foodstuffs Index last week. It’s continuing to rise but still remains lower year-on-year at this point.

The question is whether this is the start of a broadly-based period of food price inflation?

So what about the Food Retailing stocks?

I was watching the S&P 500 Food & Staples Retailing sector yesterday. It rose 1.3% versus a 0.7% fall in the S&P 500.

After all their travails from intense competition and over-investment, maybe some food price inflation is just what the UK Food Retailers need…if they can pass it on in the current environment!

If we look back to a more “normal” period for these stocks, e.g. from 1996-2007, the Food Retailers did do well during periods of rapidly escalating food prices – although often with a lag.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1l3AuG3 Tyler Durden

Submitted by Mike Krieger of Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

Last week, I highlighted the fact that the latest Press Freedom Index showcased a 13 point plunge in America’s press freedom to an embarrassing #46 position in the global ranking. If the authoritarians in the Obama Administration have their way, this country is set to fall much further in next year’s index.

Incredibly, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) is set to roll out something called the Critical Information Needs study, which will embed government “researchers” into media organizations around the nation to make sure they are doing their job properly.

No this isn’t “conspiracy theory.” It is so real, and represents such a threat to the First Amendment, that a current FCC commissioner, Ajit Pai, recently wrote an Op-Ed in the Wall Street Journal, warning Americans of this scheme. He writes:

News organizations often disagree about what Americans need to know. MSNBC, for example, apparently believes that traffic in Fort Lee, N.J., is the crisis of our time. Fox News, on the other hand, chooses to cover the September 2012 attacks on the U.S. diplomatic compound in Benghazi more heavily than other networks. The American people, for their part, disagree about what they want to watch.

 

But everyone should agree on this: The government has no place pressuring media organizations into covering certain stories.

 

Unfortunately, the Federal Communications Commission, where I am a commissioner, does not agree. Last May the FCC proposed an initiative to thrust the federal government into newsrooms across the country. With its “Multi-Market Study of Critical Information Needs,” or CIN, the agency plans to send researchers to grill reporters, editors and station owners about how they decide which stories to run. A field test in Columbia, S.C., is scheduled to begin this spring.

The purpose of the CIN, according to the FCC, is to ferret out information from television and radio broadcasters about “the process by which stories are selected” and how often stations cover “critical information needs,” along with “perceived station bias” and “perceived responsiveness to underserved populations.”

I have no idea what country I am living in at this point.

How does the FCC plan to dig up all that information? First, the agency selected eight categories of “critical information” such as the “environment” and “economic opportunities,” that it believes local newscasters should cover. It plans to ask station managers, news directors, journalists, television anchors and on-air reporters to tell the government about their “news philosophy” and how the station ensures that the community gets critical information.

 

Participation in the Critical Information Needs study is voluntary—in theory. Unlike the opinion surveys that Americans see on a daily basis and either answer or not, as they wish, the FCC’s queries may be hard for the broadcasters to ignore. They would be out of business without an FCC license, which must be renewed every eight years.

 

Should all stations follow MSNBC’s example and cut away from a discussion with a former congresswoman about the National Security Agency’s collection of phone records to offer live coverage of Justin Bieber‘s bond hearing? As a consumer of news, I have an opinion. But my opinion shouldn’t matter more than anyone else’s merely because I happen to work at the FCC.

I am simply speechless.

Read the full Op-Ed here.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1ec32EZ Tyler Durden

Submitted by Mike Krieger of Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

Last week, I highlighted the fact that the latest Press Freedom Index showcased a 13 point plunge in America’s press freedom to an embarrassing #46 position in the global ranking. If the authoritarians in the Obama Administration have their way, this country is set to fall much further in next year’s index.

Incredibly, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) is set to roll out something called the Critical Information Needs study, which will embed government “researchers” into media organizations around the nation to make sure they are doing their job properly.

No this isn’t “conspiracy theory.” It is so real, and represents such a threat to the First Amendment, that a current FCC commissioner, Ajit Pai, recently wrote an Op-Ed in the Wall Street Journal, warning Americans of this scheme. He writes:

News organizations often disagree about what Americans need to know. MSNBC, for example, apparently believes that traffic in Fort Lee, N.J., is the crisis of our time. Fox News, on the other hand, chooses to cover the September 2012 attacks on the U.S. diplomatic compound in Benghazi more heavily than other networks. The American people, for their part, disagree about what they want to watch.

 

But everyone should agree on this: The government has no place pressuring media organizations into covering certain stories.

 

Unfortunately, the Federal Communications Commission, where I am a commissioner, does not agree. Last May the FCC proposed an initiative to thrust the federal government into newsrooms across the country. With its “Multi-Market Study of Critical Information Needs,” or CIN, the agency plans to send researchers to grill reporters, editors and station owners about how they decide which stories to run. A field test in Columbia, S.C., is scheduled to begin this spring.

The purpose of the CIN, according to the FCC, is to ferret out information from television and radio broadcasters about “the process by which stories are selected” and how often stations cover “critical information needs,” along with “perceived station bias” and “perceived responsiveness to underserved populations.”

I have no idea what country I am living in at this point.

How does the FCC plan to dig up all that information? First, the agency selected eight categories of “critical information” such as the “environment” and “economic opportunities,” that it believes local newscasters should cover. It plans to ask station managers, news directors, journalists, television anchors and on-air reporters to tell the government about their “news philosophy” and how the station ensures that the community gets critical information.

 

Participation in the Critical Information Needs study is voluntary—in theory. Unlike the opinion surveys that Americans see on a daily basis and either answer or not, as they wish, the FCC’s queries may be hard for the broadcasters to ignore. They would be out of business without an FCC license, which must be renewed every eight years.

 

Should all stations follow MSNBC’s example and cut away from a discussion with a former congresswoman about the National Security Agency’s collection of phone records to offer live coverage of Justin Bieber‘s bond hearing? As a consumer of news, I have an opinion. But my opinion shouldn’t matter more than anyone else’s merely because I happen to work at the FCC.

I am simply speechless.

Read the full Op-Ed here.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1ec32EZ Tyler Durden

This next paragraph contains what Grant Williams believes is the fundamental principle of investing in gold and silver, which so few people genuinely understand — despite the multitudes of commentators expending countless thousands of words.

"So these anti-gold idiots are just that, idiots, or else they have the memory of a goldfish, because currencies come and currencies go, as sure as night follows day. It is the natural order of things. And as you can see, it's not about trading gold to get rich or getting long gold or buying one by two call spreads or getting fancy, it literally is about protecting yourself in the end. It's not like Williams got rich. He just stayed rich. Everyone else got poor."

It's not like Williams got rich. He just stayed rich. Everyone else got poor.

That's it. Right there.

…

If you talk to most people in the West about gold, they have no idea about the price or its recent direction. Narrow your sample audience down to those with a passing interest in finance, and they will likely know that gold is an awful investment whose price only goes down. (Had we conducted this little survey in 2011, the results would have been different, but that only illustrates the point.)

Ask a random group of people in the East about gold, however, and the conversation is completely different.

In this part of the world, people talk about how much gold they (or their parents or their grandparents) own. They will tell you stories of the first time they handled a gold coin (usually as a child), and they will know the price but not have much of an opinion on how good or bad gold's performance has been — it will be far less relevant to them. They just know that you don't trade gold; you own it.

To further illustrate this point, let's talk about our old friends the world's central banks.

The chart showing the 25 largest central bank holders of the world's gold looks like this:

If we take a look at the changes in those holdings between 2008 and 2013, an interesting phenomenon emerges: central banks in the East, as their reserves have grown, have been accumulating gold:

 
Since 2008, the central banks of China, Russia, India, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Thailand, and the Philippines have increased their gold holdings on average by 119.67%.

…

Central banks continually rubbish gold as a worthless asset class because it constricts their ability to produce money at the push of a button. Not only that, but it offers their citizens the means to reduce their reliance upon a nation's fiat currency — one has only to look at the goings-on in India last year to see what THAT looks like.

Deep down, though, central bankers know what gold is for and why you hold it. They know.

In 1999, a group of central banks came together through the Washington Agreement on Gold to jointly manage sales of the precious metal.

…

The Washington Agreement worked when central banks were selling their gold because there were always buyers, at lower and lower prices — those were the investors soaking up the bullion.

NOW we have a bunch of central banks aggressively trying to BUY gold; and what they're finding (unsurprisingly) is that the investors aren't sellers, so the only people left from whom to acquire gold are the traders — and they have a very limited supply of actual metal

When Western central bankers rubbish gold as a "barbarous relic" or, as in the case of Ben Bernanke shortly before he started his job at The Brookings Institution left office in January, admit to a complete lack of understanding of it, does it not strike you as strange that, having accumulated significant stockpiles of gold over the years, they aren't in a hurry to swap any of it for paper money (well, with the notable exception perhaps of the United Kingdom, thanks to the antics of Gordon Brown, King of the Idiot Chancellors)?

It shouldn't.

Gold is held by Western central banks for exactly the same reason individuals ought to hold it: protection.

Central banks are accumulating gold because it cannot go BANG! like fiat currencies do.

Individuals should be doing the same — not being sidetracked by the distractions.

It's not about price. The story Jared shared with us demonstrates that beyond any doubt.

If you own gold, it will do all the heavy lifting for you when the time comes

And that's where Grant Williams gets really deep in his latest excellent letter…

TTMYGH_17_Feb_2014

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/OguyMB Tyler Durden

This next paragraph contains what Grant Williams believes is the fundamental principle of investing in gold and silver, which so few people genuinely understand — despite the multitudes of commentators expending countless thousands of words.

"So these anti-gold idiots are just that, idiots, or else they have the memory of a goldfish, because currencies come and currencies go, as sure as night follows day. It is the natural order of things. And as you can see, it's not about trading gold to get rich or getting long gold or buying one by two call spreads or getting fancy, it literally is about protecting yourself in the end. It's not like Williams got rich. He just stayed rich. Everyone else got poor."

It's not like Williams got rich. He just stayed rich. Everyone else got poor.

That's it. Right there.

…

If you talk to most people in the West about gold, they have no idea about the price or its recent direction. Narrow your sample audience down to those with a passing interest in finance, and they will likely know that gold is an awful investment whose price only goes down. (Had we conducted this little survey in 2011, the results would have been different, but that only illustrates the point.)

Ask a random group of people in the East about gold, however, and the conversation is completely different.

In this part of the world, people talk about how much gold they (or their parents or their grandparents) own. They will tell you stories of the first time they handled a gold coin (usually as a child), and they will know the price but not have much of an opinion on how good or bad gold's performance has been — it will be far less relevant to them. They just know that you don't trade gold; you own it.

To further illustrate this point, let's talk about our old friends the world's central banks.

The chart showing the 25 largest central bank holders of the world's gold looks like this:

If we take a look at the changes in those holdings between 2008 and 2013, an interesting phenomenon emerges: central banks in the East, as their reserves have grown, have been accumulating gold:

 
Since 2008, the central banks of China, Russia, India, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Thailand, and the Philippines have increased their gold holdings on average by 119.67%.

…

Central banks continually rubbish gold as a worthless asset class because it constricts their ability to produce money at the push of a button. Not only that, but it offers their citizens the means to reduce their reliance upon a nation's fiat currency — one has only to look at the goings-on in India last year to see what THAT looks like.

Deep down, though, central bankers know what gold is for and why you hold it. They know.

In 1999, a group of central banks came together through the Washington Agreement on Gold to jointly manage sales of the precious metal.

…

The Washington Agreement worked when central banks were selling their gold because there were always buyers, at lower and lower prices — those were the investors soaking up the bullion.

NOW we have a bunch of central banks aggressively trying to BUY gold; and what they're finding (unsurprisingly) is that the investors aren't sellers, so the only people left from whom to acquire gold are the traders — and they have a very limited supply of actual metal

When Western central bankers rubbish gold as a "barbarous relic" or, as in the case of Ben Bernanke shortly before he started his job at The Brookings Institution left office in January, admit to a complete lack of understanding of it, does it not strike you as strange that, having accumulated significant stockpiles of gold over the years, they aren't in a hurry to swap any of it for paper money (well, with the notable exception perhaps of the United Kingdom, thanks to the antics of Gordon Brown, King of the Idiot Chancellors)?

It shouldn't.

Gold is held by Western central banks for exactly the same reason individuals ought to hold it: protection.

Central banks are accumulating gold because it cannot go BANG! like fiat currencies do.

Individuals should be doing the same — not being sidetracked by the distractions.

It's not about price. The story Jared shared with us demonstrates that beyond any doubt.

If you own gold, it will do all the heavy lifting for you when the time comes

And that's where Grant Williams gets really deep in his latest excellent letter…

TTMYGH_17_Feb_2014

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/OguyMB Tyler Durden

Unlike so many television shows, House of Cards shows how politicians use their power to help themselves and their friends – not the people who elected them. The fictional character at the center of the series, Frank Underwood, shows us the pitfalls of bureaucratic democracy. As professor Steve Horwitz explains in this brief clip, the series exposes the truth of public choice theory, rent seeking behavior, psychopathic tendencies, Machiavellian inclinations, corruption, and scandal. House of Cards is not that far from reality theses days and the following 3 lessons should be heeded by every voter.

 

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1l3phW6 Tyler Durden

Unlike so many television shows, House of Cards shows how politicians use their power to help themselves and their friends – not the people who elected them. The fictional character at the center of the series, Frank Underwood, shows us the pitfalls of bureaucratic democracy. As professor Steve Horwitz explains in this brief clip, the series exposes the truth of public choice theory, rent seeking behavior, psychopathic tendencies, Machiavellian inclinations, corruption, and scandal. House of Cards is not that far from reality theses days and the following 3 lessons should be heeded by every voter.

 

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1l3phW6 Tyler Durden

With G10 Macro data the most negative in 8 months, it is perhaps unsurprising that Goldman’s Advanced Global Leading Indicator dropped further – to its lowest in at least a year. Firmly in “slowdown” phase, Goldman remains adamant that “weather-related” inputs will mean this will all be fixed any day now (apart from the fact that the trend has been down for months now). None of the factors improved, as momentum also slowed notably.

 

 

Via Goldman Sachs,

…

 

The February Advanced reading signals a further month of activity growth deceleration and continues to locate the cycle in the ‘Slowdown’ phase. While the speed of deceleration does not appear to have increased by much, the overall level of Momentum has fallen significantly over the past six months. However, given the weather-related distortions to US data, we will wait for the Final release with the full set of components for a firmer signal.

 

…

 

None of the seven Advanced GLI components have improved in February so far but the level of deterioration has differed widely. Weakness was most pronounced in the Philadelphia Fed headline and New Orders less Inventories components (the Advanced proxies for our Global PMI and NOIN aggregates), which both declined sharply.

 

…

 

The February Advanced GLI places the global industrial cycle in the ‘Slowdown’ phase, characterised by positive but decreasing Momentum. This phase is generally less supportive for risky assets than ‘Expansion’. The February Advanced reading continues to signal deterioration in the global data, following a strong run over the summer. The drop in growth levels since August is certainly worrisome…

 

However, given that US data will likely be distorted by weather effects for some time, this could weigh on the GLI in the near term.

So we’ll ignore it?!?

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1d7caLm Tyler Durden

With G10 Macro data the most negative in 8 months, it is perhaps unsurprising that Goldman’s Advanced Global Leading Indicator dropped further – to its lowest in at least a year. Firmly in “slowdown” phase, Goldman remains adamant that “weather-related” inputs will mean this will all be fixed any day now (apart from the fact that the trend has been down for months now). None of the factors improved, as momentum also slowed notably.

 

 

Via Goldman Sachs,

…

 

The February Advanced reading signals a further month of activity growth deceleration and continues to locate the cycle in the ‘Slowdown’ phase. While the speed of deceleration does not appear to have increased by much, the overall level of Momentum has fallen significantly over the past six months. However, given the weather-related distortions to US data, we will wait for the Final release with the full set of components for a firmer signal.

 

…

 

None of the seven Advanced GLI components have improved in February so far but the level of deterioration has differed widely. Weakness was most pronounced in the Philadelphia Fed headline and New Orders less Inventories components (the Advanced proxies for our Global PMI and NOIN aggregates), which both declined sharply.

 

…

 

The February Advanced GLI places the global industrial cycle in the ‘Slowdown’ phase, characterised by positive but decreasing Momentum. This phase is generally less supportive for risky assets than ‘Expansion’. The February Advanced reading continues to signal deterioration in the global data, following a strong run over the summer. The drop in growth levels since August is certainly worrisome…

 

However, given that US data will likely be distorted by weather effects for some time, this could weigh on the GLI in the near term.

So we’ll ignore it?!?

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1d7caLm Tyler Durden