Tag: finance

After surging yesterday for no reason whatsoever because as we explained on several occasions, there were no surprises in the Tuesday BOJ statement, and the doubling and extension of its loan facilities was implicit and factored into the doubling of its monetary policy (as goldman explained quite well), both the Nikkei and the USDJPY has been forced to revert, with the latter all important carry funding pair back to 102 and in danger of sliding lower, as a result ES is now below yesterday’s lows. Which is why the 102 USDJPY “invisible hand” tractor beam will be all important today especially if the market finally starts paying attention to the proxy civil war that has gripped the Ukraine.

Stocks traded lower, albeit in a relatively range-bound range this morning, with the Spanish IBEX-35 underperforming. Banking names remained under pressure, with focus still on yesterday’s reports that Spanish banks’ bad loans marked a fresh record, together with comments by ECB’s Weidmann, who said that sovereign debt purchases would constrain the central bank via political pressure. Similar view was also echoed by ECB’s Nowotny, who said that government bond buying US Fed-style would be difficult to do under ECB’s mandate.

Much of the focus this morning has been on UK related macroeconomic events, with the release of the latest jobs report, which showed an uptick in the ILO Unemployment Rate, coinciding with the MPC minutes which revealed that Carney did not ask MPC to vote on new forward guidance policy. As a result, GBP came under broad based selling pressure, with Bunds and USTs also dragged higher by consequent rally by Gilts. Going forward, market participants will get to digest the release of the latest housing data from the US, FOMC minutes, as well as the API inventories report after the closing bell on Wall Street.

US Event Calendar

• 7:00am: MBA Mortgage Applications, Feb. 14, est. -2.0%
• 8:30am: Bureau of Labor Statistics issues redesigned PPI; PPI m/m, Jan., est. 0.1% (prior 0.1%); PPI Ex Food and Energy m/m, Jan., est. 0.1% (prior 0.0%)
• 8:30am: Housing Starts, Jan., est. 950k (prior 999k); Housing Starts m/m, Jan., est. -4.9% (prior -9.8%); Building Permits, Jan., est. 975k (prior 986k, revised 991k); Building Permits m/m, Jan., est. -1.6% (prior -3%, revised -2.6%)
• 12:15pm: Fed’s Lockhart speaks on economy in Macon, Ga.
• 1:00pm: Fed’s Bullard speaks in Washington
• 2:00pm: Fed releases minutes from Jan. 28-29 FOMC Meeting
• 7:00pm: Fed’s Williams speaks on economy in New York Supply
• 11:00am: POMO – Fed to inject only $1b-$1.25b into Singapore Private Wealth accounts

Bulletin news summary from Bloomberg and RanSquawk

• GBP underperformed its peers following the release of worse than expected ILO Unemployment Rate, while the minutes showed that Carney did not ask MPC to vote on new forward guidance policy on Feb. 6…
• Bunds moved off the best levels of the session after Buba failed to get bids for maximum target at its 2024 Bund auction…
• ECB’s Nowotny says that government bond buying US Fed-style would be difficult to do under ECB’s mandate
  Treasuries gain for a second day, 10Y leads, with yield at lowest in a week; FOMC minutes and discussion of QE tapering in focus, especially as recent economic data has disappointed.
• Britain’s unemployment rate rose to 7.2% in 4Q, first increase since February of last year, from 7.1% in 3Q
• Germany failed to get bids for maximum target at auction of 10Y bunds; received EU4.33b, max target EU5b; percentage retained by Bundesbank jumped to 24%, highest since  Sept. 2012
• The Fed approved new standards for foreign banks that will require the biggest to hold more capital in the U.S., joining other countries in erecting walls around domestic financial systems
• Clashes in Ukraine between police and anti-government activists killed at least 25 people and left hundreds injured in the bloodiest episode of the country’s three- month standoff
• A JPMorgan employee fell to his death from the roof of Chater House, the investment bank’s Asia-Pacific headquarters in Hong Kong
• China reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury debt in December by the most in two years as the Fed announced plans to slow asset purchases
• Sovereign yields mostly lower. EU peripheral spreads wider. Asian stocks mixed; Nikkei -0.5%, Shanghai +1.1%. European stocks fall, U.S. stock-index futures decline. WTI crude higher, gold and copper lower

Asian Headlines

The Nikkei 225 underperformed its peers amid touted profit taking following yesterday’s gains, with JGBs finishing in minor positive territory as a result. Of note, good sized swaps receiving was noted in 5s, which was said to haven been linked to yesterday’s decision by the BoJ to allow banks to borrow from the central bank at a 0.10% fixed rate for four years. (IFR)

UBS see no hard landing or financial crisis in China this year, as firming exports and recovering consumption should offset slower investment in infrastructure. (BBG)

EU & UK Headlines

ILO Unemployment Rate (Dec) 3M 7.2% vs Exp. 7.1% (Prev. 7.1%)

UK Jobless Claims Change (Jan) M/M -27.6K vs. Exp. -20.0K (Prev. -24.0k, Prev. -27.7K)

BoE February minutes showed MPC voted 9-0 to leave rates and bond purchases unchanged. Carney did not ask MPC to vote on new forward guidance policy on Feb. 6.

ECB’s Weidmann said sovereign debt purchases would constrain the central bank via political pressure. (FAZ)

This follows the German constitutional court’s ruling on the OMT, stating that bond-buying may exceed the ECB’s mandate.

ECB’s Nowotny says need unanimity to agree non-sterilisation of SMP bond purchases and are getting close to that. He also added that government bond buying US Fed-style would be difficult to do under ECB’s mandate. (RTRS/BBG)

Bunds failed to sustain upward traction and moved off high after Buba failed to get bids for maximum target at its 2024 Bund auction. In terms of the bidding data: b/c 1.1 (Prev. 1.8) and avg. yield 1.64% (Prev. 1.77%),
retention 24.1% (Prev. 16.5%).

US Headlines

President Obama’s proposal to raise the minimum wage to $10.10 per hour would cost 500,000 jobs in 2016, according to a report released Tuesday by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. (The Hill)

Equities

The release of an encouraging earnings report by Credit Agricole, which outperformed in France, failed to support other financials in Europe, with the sector under performing on a broader EU-wide breakdown. On the other hand, utilities traded in the green, as the cautious sentiment buoyed investor demand for high dividend yielding stocks.

FX

Combination of worse than expected macroeconomic releases from the UK, as well as expiring options between 1.660-50 levels meant that GBP has underperformed its peers this morning. Elsewhere, touted profit taking following yesterday’s sharp gains, together with somewhat cautious sentiment saw EUR/JPY and USD/JPY trend lower this morning.

Commodities

India may cut their gold import duty by between 2% and 4%. (WSJ)

Morgan Stanley said that China iron ore demand is seen picking up, maintaining its forecasts, whilst seeing a surplus in H2, and suggested not to panic over China iron ore stockpiles. (BBG)

Libyan PM Ali Zaidan commented that Libya reached an agreement to end stand-off with militia, without providing any further details. (BBG)

Iraq has resumed crude exports via the Turkish port of Ceyhan, as the pipeline has been repaired, with oil flow to return to normal at 300,000-325,000 bpd today. (BBG)

* * *

We conclude with the overnight recap from Db’s Jim Reid

Policy expectations ahead of the National People’s Congress on the 5th March is spurring a move higher in Chinese stocks. The Shanghai Composite is just over 1% higher as we  type and is over 5% higher since trading resumed after the Chinese New Year holiday. Looking across our screens this morning, the performance across Asian equity markets have been a bit weaker elsewhere. The KOSPI (-0.4%) and the Nikkei (-0.8%) are both lower. Gains in the JPY is probably weighing on the latter but in reality there could be also some profit taking following yesterday’s 3% rally.

Elsewhere, the markets in Australia (+0.2%) and Indonesia (+0.4%) are both higher. In FX land, the RMB is at its weakest in two months after the PBOC reduced its daily fixing by 0.05% to 6.1103. Treasuries are little changed overnight with the 10yrs hovering around 2.70%.

On the M&A front, the board of Peugeot yesterday approved a EUR3bn capital raising exercise. The plan would see Chinese state-owned Dongfeng Motor become one of PSA’s largest shareholders. Both Dongfeng and the French government will pay c.EUR800m for a 14% stake each in the company. Staying on the corporate theme, Tesla shares closed at a record high of nearly $204/share amid reports of a 2013 meeting held between Tesla’s CEO and Apple’s head of M&A. A potential takeover, a strategic partnership on batteries (a common area of focus for both companies), or a potential new product category such as accelerating hybrid and electric vehicles are all ideas that have been floated by various media outlets previously/overnight. Certainly an interesting story to follow if anything comes out of it. In the meantime, Tesla’s Q4 results briefing today will be interesting.

After the recent rally back in risk around the globe it feels like we’re now entering no mans land where the market is waiting for answers that may not be available for a while. In particular the US data is in limbo while the polar vortex and associated storms pass through. US data was again weak yesterday (see below) but there is very little historical context to try to assess the impact of the weather. We suspect that some of the weakness relative to expectations is part of a multi-year structural issue but we won’t know for a few weeks.

Briefly recapping yesterday’s data flow, it was certainly disappointing for the market to see the weakness in both housing and manufacturing. The NY Fed Empire Manufacturing survey fell more than expected to 4.48 from 12.51. Broad-based weaknesses were evident across new orders, shipments and employment although outlook indicators showed improvement. The NAHB Housing Market index fell to 46 from 56 in January while the consensus was looking for a steady month in February. Joe LaVorgna noted that all three subcomponents of the housing data fell, as did all four regions of the country: current conditions (51 vs. 62), prospective buyers (54 vs. 60), buyer traffic (31 vs. 40); Northeast (33 vs. 41), Midwest (50 vs. 59), South (46 vs. 53) and West (57 vs. 71). The weather has certainly dampened builders sentiment but trying to work out how much is near impossible.

The data picture yesterday was also fairly subdued on the other side of the pond. Germany’s ZEW survey expectations index fell more than expected (55.7 v 61.5). In the UK, headline CPI (+1.9% v +2.0% yoy expected) were softer than expected with core inflation down to its lowest reading (+1.6% yoy v +1.9% expected) since mid-2009. Overall it was an uninspiring day for European and US equity markets yesterday with the S&P 500 up by 0.12% and the Stoxx600 closing flat on the day.

Looking ahead to today, we have housing starts/permits in the US as well as the PPI reading for January. On Fed activities, the FOMC minutes of the last meeting is due today while Lockhart and Bullard are scheduled to speak. In Europe the BoE meeting minutes in the UK will probably be the main focal point.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1cZ6OSl Tyler Durden

First Mercedes, then Porsche, and now Ferrari and Maserati post record US sales in January…

• *FERRARI POSTS RECORD SALES IN U.S. AND U.K. IN 2013
• *FERRARI AND MASERATI GLOBAL MORE THAN DOUBLE IN JAN TO 2,400

…a month where the non-1%-auto-makers struggled mightily. Of course, the latter missed expectations are blamed on weather (as opposed to dealer inventories stuffed at record levels, a replacement cycle that has run its course, or a consumer that is once again credit-tapped out). So, the clear findings from this is that the 1% – who are buying more luxury cars than ever before in January – clearly don’t feel the weather…

 

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1coactn Tyler Durden

First Mercedes, then Porsche, and now Ferrari and Maserati post record US sales in January…

• *FERRARI POSTS RECORD SALES IN U.S. AND U.K. IN 2013
• *FERRARI AND MASERATI GLOBAL MORE THAN DOUBLE IN JAN TO 2,400

…a month where the non-1%-auto-makers struggled mightily. Of course, the latter missed expectations are blamed on weather (as opposed to dealer inventories stuffed at record levels, a replacement cycle that has run its course, or a consumer that is once again credit-tapped out). So, the clear findings from this is that the 1% – who are buying more luxury cars than ever before in January – clearly don’t feel the weather…

 

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1coactn Tyler Durden

As we initially exposed over five years ago, with luminary frat brothers and sister such as Jimmy Cayne, Richard Fuld, Stan O'Neil, Martin Gruss, Michael Bloomberg, Jon Corzine, Mary Shapiro, Alan Schwartz, Larry Fink, Larry Fink, Wilbur Ross, James McDonald, this "secret" organization puts the Masons, Bilderbergs, Skull and Bones, Templars, Fight Club and all other secret societies to shame. Now, as New York Magazine infiltrates the inner workings of the "Kappa Beta Phi" society, Liberty Blitzkrieg's Mike Krieger notes the following will confirm what everyone already thought – that a great many of these oligarch financiers are complete and total sociopaths and a menace to society. 

 

Via ZeroHedge,

I can still remember
How the Dow Jones used to make me smile.
And I learned my trade and had my chance
The music played I did my dance
And I made seven figures for a while.
I can't remember if I cried
when they pulled the plug on Countrywide…
It sucks that Iceland is out of ice….
Bye, Bye to my piece of the pie…
Now I travel coach whenever I fly…
Maybe this will be the day that I die.

 

Via Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

Here’s What Happened When a Journalist Crashed a Wall Street Secret Society

Before we get into this post, let’s review the definition of Antisocial Personality Disorder according to the U.S. National Library of Medicine:

The following article by Kevin Roose was published late last night by New York Magazine, and it recounts what the journalist saw when he crashed Wall Street fraternity Kappa Beta Phi’s private party back in 2012. Some elements of his experience were already published a couple years back in a New York Times piece, but his latest article adds an additional perspective and recounts many outrageous aspects of the event I had never read before. This article is particularly important considering the recent trend of billionaires running around on financial television claiming they are being prosecuted for no reason.

Basically, it will confirm what everyone already thought. That a great many of these oligarch financiers are complete and total sociopaths and a menace to society.

From New York Magazine:

Recently, our nation’s financial chieftains have been feeling a little unloved. Venture capitalists are comparing the persecution of the rich to the plight ofJews at Kristallnacht, Wall Street titans are saying that they’re sick of being beaten up, and this week, a billionaire investor, Wilbur Ross, proclaimed that “the 1 percent is being picked on for political reasons.”

 

Ross’s statement seemed particularly odd, because two years ago, I met Ross at an event that might single-handedly explain why the rest of the country still hates financial tycoons – the annual black-tie induction ceremony of a secret Wall Street fraternity called Kappa Beta Phi.

 

It was January 2012, and Ross, wearing a tuxedo and purple velvet moccasins embroidered with the fraternity’s Greek letters, was standing at the dais of the St. Regis Hotel ballroom, welcoming a crowd of two hundred wealthy and famous Wall Street figures to the Kappa Beta Phi dinner. Ross, the leader (or “Grand Swipe”) of the fraternity, was preparing to invite 21 new members — “neophytes,” as the group called them — to join its exclusive ranks.

If you recall, last year Mr. Benmosche compared anger at Wall Street bonuses to the lynching of black people in the south.

I’d heard whisperings about the existence of Kappa Beta Phi, whose members included both incredibly successful financiers (New York City’s Mayor Michael Bloomberg, former Goldman Sachs chairman John Whitehead, hedge-fund billionaire Paul Tudor Jones) and incredibly unsuccessful ones (Lehman Brothers CEO Dick Fuld, Bear Stearns CEO Jimmy Cayne, former New Jersey governor and MF Global flameout Jon Corzine). It was a secret fraternity, founded at the beginning of the Great Depression, that functioned as a sort of one-percenter’s Friars Club. Each year, the group’s dinner features comedy skits, musical acts in drag, and off-color jokes, and its group’s privacy mantra is “What happens at the St. Regis stays at the St. Regis.” For eight decades, it worked. No outsider in living memory had witnessed the entire proceedings firsthand.

 

After cocktail hour, the new inductees – all of whom were required to dress in leotards and gold-sequined skirts, with costume wigs – began their variety-show acts. Among the night’s lowlights:

 

• Warren Stephens, an investment banking CEO, took the stage in a Confederate flag hat and sang a song about the financial crisis, set to the tune of “Dixie.” (“In Wall Street land we’ll take our stand, said Morgan and Goldman. But first we better get some loans, so quick, get to the Fed, man.”)

 

The neophytes – who had changed from their drag outfits into Mormon missionary costumes — broke into their musical finale: a parody version of “I Believe,” the hit ballad from The Book of Mormon, with customized lyrics like “I believe that God has a plan for all of us. I believe my plan involves a seven-figure bonus.” Amused, I pulled out my phone, and began recording the proceedings on video. Wrong move.

 

“Give me that or I’ll fucking break it!” Novogratz yelled, grabbing for my phone, which was filled with damning evidence. His eyes were bloodshot, and his neck veins were bulging. The song onstage was now over, and a number of prominent Kappas had rushed over to our table. Before the situation could escalate dangerously, a bond investor and former Grand Swipe named Alexandra Lebenthal stepped in between us. Wilbur Ross quickly followed, and the two of them led me out into the lobby, past a throng of Wall Street tycoons, some of whom seemed to be hyperventilating.

 

Once we made it to the lobby, Ross and Lebenthal reassured me that what I’d just seen wasn’t really a group of wealthy and powerful financiers making homophobic jokes, making light of the financial crisis, and bragging about their business conquests at Main Street’s expense. No, it was just a group of friends who came together to roast each other in a benign and self-deprecating manner. Nothing to see here.

 

But the extent of their worry wasn’t made clear until Ross offered himself up as a source for future stories in exchange for my cooperation.

 

“I’ll pick up the phone anytime, get you any help you need,” he said.

 

“Yeah, the people in this group could be very helpful,” Lebenthal chimed in. “If you could just keep their privacy in mind.”

This is how these guys talk to everyone, particularly Congress. They are used to getting anything they want because of their money.

The first and most obvious conclusion was that the upper ranks of finance are composed of people who have completely divorced themselves from reality. No self-aware and socially conscious Wall Street executive would have agreed to be part of a group whose tacit mission is to make light of the financial sector’s foibles. Not when those foibles had resulted in real harm to millions of people in the form of foreclosures, wrecked 401(k)s, and a devastating unemployment crisis.

 

The second thing I realized was that Kappa Beta Phi was, in large part, a fear-based organization. Here were executives who had strong ideas about politics, society, and the work of their colleagues, but who would never have the courage to voice those opinions in a public setting. Their cowardice had reduced them to sniping at their perceived enemies in the form of satirical songs and sketches, among only those people who had been handpicked to share their view of the world. And the idea of a reporter making those views public had caused them to throw a mass temper tantrum.

Cowards, yes. Dangerous cowards, absolutely.

Full article here, and I highly suggest reading it as it includes some creepy audio from this oligarch frat party.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1e5KINJ Tyler Durden

The world has grown tired of the inexorable rise in radiation levels and propaganda-talk sourrounding nuclear issues in Japan from the government in the last few years since Fukushima changed the nation's future. However, there is another source of nuclear materials that is increasingly angering the Chinese. The tensions and rhetoric, from WWI analogs to Nazi comparisons, have risen recently; but this time, the Chinese are asking a legitimate question… "If a country claims that it sticks by the three non-nuclear principles but at same time hoards far more nuclear materials than it needs, including a massive amount of weapon-grade plutonium, the world has good reason to ask why…. After all, Abe and his cabinet have already caused too much trouble to regional peace and stability."

Via Xinhua (Tian Dongdong),

Tokyo owes world explanation over weapon-grade

If a country claims that it sticks by the three non-nuclear principles but at same time hoards far more nuclear materials than it needs, including a massive amount of weapon-grade plutonium, the world has good reason to ask why.

 

…

As a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty, Japan should adhere to its international obligations. As the world's only victim of nuclear attacks in the final stage of WWII, it should clearly understand the horrible consequences of nuclear proliferation.

 

However, five decades are not long enough for the island country, where some politicians wish, openly or privately, for nuclear arms, to return the 331 kilogram of weapon-grade plutonium — enough for 40 to 50 nuclear bombs — it received from the United States during the Cold War.

 

Some Japanese experts have said that, with necessary amounts of weapon-grade nuclear materials, their country is capable of developing nuclear bombs within a year.

 

Adding to the world's concern, Japan is also reportedly hoarding more than 1.2 tons of enriched uranium and another 44 tons of plutonium, which overwhelmingly dwarf its civilian demands.

 

The ecological and environmental catastrophe of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster in 2011 had clearly showed that the superabundant nuclear materials are actually time bombs for a seismically active country like Japan.

 

What's more, storing more than necessary nuclear materials is also against the regulations of the nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, which require countries to keep a balance between the demand and supply of nuclear materials.

 

The somewhat obsessive possession of nuclear materials is not the behavior of a responsible and reliable country, as Japan portrays itself in the international community.

 

It brings nothing but doubt and suspicion to the already volatile East Asia.

 

If the Japanese government truly wants to play a constructive role for regional stability, it should honestly explain its reluctance to the world and return the stored nuclear materials as soon as possible. After all, Abe and his cabinet have already caused too much trouble to regional peace and stability.

As The Diplomat's Shannon Tiezzi adds,

…

 

Currently, even though Japan has shut down its nuclear reactors (and is not using plutonium), there are plans to open a new reprocessing plant at Rokkasho. According to a report by the International Panel of Fissile Materials, this new plant would separate out about 8 tons of plutonium each year—enough “to make one thousand Nagasaki-type bombs.”

 

…

 

There is clear concern in China that Japan’s plutonium reserves could eventually wind up being used to develop nuclear weapons. There’s historical precedent for this—India became a nuclear-armed state after using reprocessing to gain nuclear materials. For China, Japan’s plutonium stockpile is one more piece of evidence that Shinzo Abe is seeking return to Japan’s militaristic glory days.

 

This accumulation of plutonium also threatens global non-proliferation efforts, and thus runs directly counter to U.S. President Barack Obama’s emphasis on nuclear security. “We simply can’t go on accumulating huge amounts of the very material, like separated plutonium, that we’re trying to keep away from terrorists,” he said in a 2012 speech at Hankuk University in Seoul. The White House has apparently been quietly pressuring Japan to drop the reprocessing plan, and to begin simply storing spent nuclear fuel rather than separating out plutonium.

 

There are complicated domestic reasons for Japan to continue with the opening of the Rokkasho reprocessing plant, including vested interest groups that insist on the economic benefits of continuing with construction. But Tokyo should not overlook the regional and global concern caused by opening a new reprocessing plant when Japan has no concrete plan for using or disposing of its current plutonium stockpiles.

But apart from that – everything is great in the world… it must be, US stocks are at all-time highs…

Of course, this places "ally" President Obama in an awkward position given his anti-proliferation stance… though we suspect he will have an angle: "if you like your plutonium stockpile, you can keep it."

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1eOJJBF Tyler Durden

The world has grown tired of the inexorable rise in radiation levels and propaganda-talk sourrounding nuclear issues in Japan from the government in the last few years since Fukushima changed the nation's future. However, there is another source of nuclear materials that is increasingly angering the Chinese. The tensions and rhetoric, from WWI analogs to Nazi comparisons, have risen recently; but this time, the Chinese are asking a legitimate question… "If a country claims that it sticks by the three non-nuclear principles but at same time hoards far more nuclear materials than it needs, including a massive amount of weapon-grade plutonium, the world has good reason to ask why…. After all, Abe and his cabinet have already caused too much trouble to regional peace and stability."

Via Xinhua (Tian Dongdong),

Tokyo owes world explanation over weapon-grade

If a country claims that it sticks by the three non-nuclear principles but at same time hoards far more nuclear materials than it needs, including a massive amount of weapon-grade plutonium, the world has good reason to ask why.

 

…

As a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty, Japan should adhere to its international obligations. As the world's only victim of nuclear attacks in the final stage of WWII, it should clearly understand the horrible consequences of nuclear proliferation.

 

However, five decades are not long enough for the island country, where some politicians wish, openly or privately, for nuclear arms, to return the 331 kilogram of weapon-grade plutonium — enough for 40 to 50 nuclear bombs — it received from the United States during the Cold War.

 

Some Japanese experts have said that, with necessary amounts of weapon-grade nuclear materials, their country is capable of developing nuclear bombs within a year.

 

Adding to the world's concern, Japan is also reportedly hoarding more than 1.2 tons of enriched uranium and another 44 tons of plutonium, which overwhelmingly dwarf its civilian demands.

 

The ecological and environmental catastrophe of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster in 2011 had clearly showed that the superabundant nuclear materials are actually time bombs for a seismically active country like Japan.

 

What's more, storing more than necessary nuclear materials is also against the regulations of the nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, which require countries to keep a balance between the demand and supply of nuclear materials.

 

The somewhat obsessive possession of nuclear materials is not the behavior of a responsible and reliable country, as Japan portrays itself in the international community.

 

It brings nothing but doubt and suspicion to the already volatile East Asia.

 

If the Japanese government truly wants to play a constructive role for regional stability, it should honestly explain its reluctance to the world and return the stored nuclear materials as soon as possible. After all, Abe and his cabinet have already caused too much trouble to regional peace and stability.

As The Diplomat's Shannon Tiezzi adds,

…

 

Currently, even though Japan has shut down its nuclear reactors (and is not using plutonium), there are plans to open a new reprocessing plant at Rokkasho. According to a report by the International Panel of Fissile Materials, this new plant would separate out about 8 tons of plutonium each year—enough “to make one thousand Nagasaki-type bombs.”

 

…

 

There is clear concern in China that Japan’s plutonium reserves could eventually wind up being used to develop nuclear weapons. There’s historical precedent for this—India became a nuclear-armed state after using reprocessing to gain nuclear materials. For China, Japan’s plutonium stockpile is one more piece of evidence that Shinzo Abe is seeking return to Japan’s militaristic glory days.

 

This accumulation of plutonium also threatens global non-proliferation efforts, and thus runs directly counter to U.S. President Barack Obama’s emphasis on nuclear security. “We simply can’t go on accumulating huge amounts of the very material, like separated plutonium, that we’re trying to keep away from terrorists,” he said in a 2012 speech at Hankuk University in Seoul. The White House has apparently been quietly pressuring Japan to drop the reprocessing plan, and to begin simply storing spent nuclear fuel rather than separating out plutonium.

 

There are complicated domestic reasons for Japan to continue with the opening of the Rokkasho reprocessing plant, including vested interest groups that insist on the economic benefits of continuing with construction. But Tokyo should not overlook the regional and global concern caused by opening a new reprocessing plant when Japan has no concrete plan for using or disposing of its current plutonium stockpiles.

But apart from that – everything is great in the world… it must be, US stocks are at all-time highs…

Of course, this places "ally" President Obama in an awkward position given his anti-proliferation stance… though we suspect he will have an angle: "if you like your plutonium stockpile, you can keep it."

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1eOJJBF Tyler Durden

By early March "the US will be in the 2nd longest bull market of the last 80 years," and as Marc Faber warns, "usually, these long bull markets end badly." Simply put, The Gloom, Boom, & Doom Report publisher notes "it's too late to buy US stocks," warning of previous major declines like 1987, 2000, and 2007. "It's not an opportune time" to buy US stocks but while it might be too early to buy some of the beaten-down emerging markets at these levels, Faber believes investors can make money in the longer-term – "I think I can make the case that over the next five to 10 years, I will make more money by buying now in the emerging economies then in the U.S."

 

 

This is the 2nd longest rally and if we look at nominal market prices going back to 1900, we find that the current rally of 135.23% (as of January 27th close) ranks as the 7th biggest rally in history.  As shown in the chart below the current rally ranks behind the 1920-29 market bubble, the post-WWII bull market and the "tech boom" of the 90's.

 

 

Of course we have noted previously that stocks are not cheap in the US…

As you will notice, we are currently at valuation levels where previous bull markets have ended rather than continued.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/MxtqD7 Tyler Durden

By early March "the US will be in the 2nd longest bull market of the last 80 years," and as Marc Faber warns, "usually, these long bull markets end badly." Simply put, The Gloom, Boom, & Doom Report publisher notes "it's too late to buy US stocks," warning of previous major declines like 1987, 2000, and 2007. "It's not an opportune time" to buy US stocks but while it might be too early to buy some of the beaten-down emerging markets at these levels, Faber believes investors can make money in the longer-term – "I think I can make the case that over the next five to 10 years, I will make more money by buying now in the emerging economies then in the U.S."

 

 

This is the 2nd longest rally and if we look at nominal market prices going back to 1900, we find that the current rally of 135.23% (as of January 27th close) ranks as the 7th biggest rally in history.  As shown in the chart below the current rally ranks behind the 1920-29 market bubble, the post-WWII bull market and the "tech boom" of the 90's.

 

 

Of course we have noted previously that stocks are not cheap in the US…

As you will notice, we are currently at valuation levels where previous bull markets have ended rather than continued.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/MxtqD7 Tyler Durden

Submitted by Michael Snyder of The American Dream blog,

Have you noticed that people are becoming angrier?  You can see it everywhere – in our homes, in our schools, in our workplaces, in our television shows, in our movies, and certainly in Washington.  In fact, many have said that there is an “epidemic” of anger in America today.  And it is undeniably true.  As you will see below, a whole host of surveys and opinion polls show that America has become a seething cauldron of anger and frustration unlike anything that we have ever seen before.

As a nation, we are more divided than we have been in decades, and economic conditions continue to deteriorate.  People are working harder than ever and Americans get less vacation days than anyone else in the world, but median household income keeps going down every year.  Americans are dissatisfied with their relationships, their jobs, their communities and their political leaders.  There is this growing sense that our country is steamrolling toward disaster, and yet there is very little agreement on what the solutions to our problems are.  Instead, blaming others for our problems has become a new American pastime.  The very fabric of our society is coming apart at the seams and the thin veneer of civilization that we all take for granted is beginning to disappear.  What is America going to look like if we continue to go even farther down this road?

The following statistics come from various surveys and opinion polls that have been conducted recently.  Without a doubt, these numbers show that Americans are angrier and more frustrated than ever…

#1 65 percent of Americans are dissatisfied “with the U.S. system of government and its effectiveness”.  That is the highest level of dissatisfaction that Gallup has ever recorded.

#2 66 percent of Americans are dissatisfied “with the size and power of federal government”.

#3 70 percent of Americans do not have confidence that the government will “make progress on the important problems and issues facing the country in 2014.”

#4 Only 8 percent of Americans believe that Congress is doing a “good” or “excellent” job.

#5 Only 4 percent of Americans believe that it would “change Congress for the worse” if every member was voted out during the next election.

#6 60 percent of Americans report feeling “angry or irritable”.  Two years ago that number was at 50 percent.

#7 53 percent of Americans believe that the Obama administration is “not competent in running the government”.

#8 An all-time low 31 percent of Americans identify themselves as Democrats.

#9 An all-time low 25 percent of Americans identify themselves as Republicans.

#10 An all-time high 42 percent of Americans identify themselves as Independents.

#11 Barack Obama’s daily job approval numbers have dipped down into the high thirties several times lately.

#12 Only 38 percent of Americans approve of the way that Obama is handling the economy.

#13 60 percent of Americans believe that the “economic system in this country unfairly favors the wealthy”.

#14 70 percent of Americans do not “feel engaged or inspired at their jobs”.

#15 Two-thirds of U.S. teens “admit to having anger attacks involving the destruction of property, threats of violence, or engaging in violence”.

#16 36 percent of Americans admit that they have yelled at customer service agents during the past year.

#17 73 percent of Americans believe that Obama’s efforts to “reform” the NSA “won’t make much difference in protecting people’s privacy”.

#18 77 percent of Americans believe that the state of the economy is either “not so good” or “poor”.

#19 65 percent of Americans are either “somewhat dissatisfied” or “very dissatisfied” with the direction of the country.

Are you starting to get the picture?

We have never seen anything like this in the United States during the post-World War II era.  People are fundamentally unhappy, and that has tremendous implications for the future of our society.

So what is causing all of this anger and frustration?

Well, of course the economic struggles that tens of millions of Americans are experiencing on a daily basis play a huge role.  The following is an excerpt from a recent local Fox News report…

Some are describing this as “America’s anger epidemic.” And there are a few reasons: uncertainty in the job market and the economy, working long hours — on average about one month more now than they did in the 1970s and with less vacation.

 

So if it seems like Americans are angrier these days it’s because we are.

And it is easy to understand why people are becoming increasingly frustrated with the incompetence and rampant corruption in Washington D.C.…

Grim findings have been coming thick and fast. Most Americans no longer see President Barack Obama as honest. Half think that he “knowingly lied” to pass his Obamacare health law. Fewer than one in five trust the government in Washington to do what is right all or most of the time. Confidence in Congress has fallen to record lows: in America, as in Italy and Greece, just one in ten voters expresses trust or confidence in the national parliament. Frankly straining credulity, a mammoth, 107-country poll by Transparency International, a corruption monitor, this summer found Americans more likely than Italians to say that they feel that the police, business and the media are all “corrupt or extremely corrupt”.

 

Americans are also turning on one another. Since 1972 the Chicago-based General Social Survey (GSS) has been asking whether most people can be trusted, or whether “you can’t be too careful” in daily life. Four decades ago Americans were evenly split. Now almost two-thirds say others cannot be trusted, a record high.

In addition, there are certainly other reasons why people are so angry these days as well…

The “Knockout Game” grows more popular. Athletes throw tantrums that would embarrass most 3-year-olds. Race relations simmer at a constant near-boil, while our leaders engage in enough posturing and name-calling to look more like a modern version of “West Side Story” than the servant-citizens who should inspire peace and mutual respect.

So what do you believe?

Why do you think that Americans are so angry and so frustrated these days?

Is there anything we can do about it?

And how bad will the anger and frustration in this country get when the economy completely collapses?

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1jEzAwd Tyler Durden

Submitted by Michael Snyder of The American Dream blog,

Have you noticed that people are becoming angrier?  You can see it everywhere – in our homes, in our schools, in our workplaces, in our television shows, in our movies, and certainly in Washington.  In fact, many have said that there is an “epidemic” of anger in America today.  And it is undeniably true.  As you will see below, a whole host of surveys and opinion polls show that America has become a seething cauldron of anger and frustration unlike anything that we have ever seen before.

As a nation, we are more divided than we have been in decades, and economic conditions continue to deteriorate.  People are working harder than ever and Americans get less vacation days than anyone else in the world, but median household income keeps going down every year.  Americans are dissatisfied with their relationships, their jobs, their communities and their political leaders.  There is this growing sense that our country is steamrolling toward disaster, and yet there is very little agreement on what the solutions to our problems are.  Instead, blaming others for our problems has become a new American pastime.  The very fabric of our society is coming apart at the seams and the thin veneer of civilization that we all take for granted is beginning to disappear.  What is America going to look like if we continue to go even farther down this road?

The following statistics come from various surveys and opinion polls that have been conducted recently.  Without a doubt, these numbers show that Americans are angrier and more frustrated than ever…

#1 65 percent of Americans are dissatisfied “with the U.S. system of government and its effectiveness”.  That is the highest level of dissatisfaction that Gallup has ever recorded.

#2 66 percent of Americans are dissatisfied “with the size and power of federal government”.

#3 70 percent of Americans do not have confidence that the government will “make progress on the important problems and issues facing the country in 2014.”

#4 Only 8 percent of Americans believe that Congress is doing a “good” or “excellent” job.

#5 Only 4 percent of Americans believe that it would “change Congress for the worse” if every member was voted out during the next election.

#6 60 percent of Americans report feeling “angry or irritable”.  Two years ago that number was at 50 percent.

#7 53 percent of Americans believe that the Obama administration is “not competent in running the government”.

#8 An all-time low 31 percent of Americans identify themselves as Democrats.

#9 An all-time low 25 percent of Americans identify themselves as Republicans.

#10 An all-time high 42 percent of Americans identify themselves as Independents.

#11 Barack Obama’s daily job approval numbers have dipped down into the high thirties several times lately.

#12 Only 38 percent of Americans approve of the way that Obama is handling the economy.

#13 60 percent of Americans believe that the “economic system in this country unfairly favors the wealthy”.

#14 70 percent of Americans do not “feel engaged or inspired at their jobs”.

#15 Two-thirds of U.S. teens “admit to having anger attacks involving the destruction of property, threats of violence, or engaging in violence”.

#16 36 percent of Americans admit that they have yelled at customer service agents during the past year.

#17 73 percent of Americans believe that Obama’s efforts to “reform” the NSA “won’t make much difference in protecting people’s privacy”.

#18 77 percent of Americans believe that the state of the economy is either “not so good” or “poor”.

#19 65 percent of Americans are either “somewhat dissatisfied” or “very dissatisfied” with the direction of the country.

Are you starting to get the picture?

We have never seen anything like this in the United States during the post-World War II era.  People are fundamentally unhappy, and that has tremendous implications for the future of our society.

So what is causing all of this anger and frustration?

Well, of course the economic struggles that tens of millions of Americans are experiencing on a daily basis play a huge role.  The following is an excerpt from a recent local Fox News report…

Some are describing this as “America’s anger epidemic.” And there are a few reasons: uncertainty in the job market and the economy, working long hours — on average about one month more now than they did in the 1970s and with less vacation.

 

So if it seems like Americans are angrier these days it’s because we are.

And it is easy to understand why people are becoming increasingly frustrated with the incompetence and rampant corruption in Washington D.C.…

Grim findings have been coming thick and fast. Most Americans no longer see President Barack Obama as honest. Half think that he “knowingly lied” to pass his Obamacare health law. Fewer than one in five trust the government in Washington to do what is right all or most of the time. Confidence in Congress has fallen to record lows: in America, as in Italy and
Greece, just one in ten voters expresses trust or confidence in the national parliament. Frankly straining credulity, a mammoth, 107-country poll by Transparency International, a corruption monitor, this summer found Americans more likely than Italians to say that they feel that the police, business and the media are all “corrupt or extremely corrupt”.

 

Americans are also turning on one another. Since 1972 the Chicago-based General Social Survey (GSS) has been asking whether most people can be trusted, or whether “you can’t be too careful” in daily life. Four decades ago Americans were evenly split. Now almost two-thirds say others cannot be trusted, a record high.

In addition, there are certainly other reasons why people are so angry these days as well…

The “Knockout Game” grows more popular. Athletes throw tantrums that would embarrass most 3-year-olds. Race relations simmer at a constant near-boil, while our leaders engage in enough posturing and name-calling to look more like a modern version of “West Side Story” than the servant-citizens who should inspire peace and mutual respect.

So what do you believe?

Why do you think that Americans are so angry and so frustrated these days?

Is there anything we can do about it?

And how bad will the anger and frustration in this country get when the economy completely collapses?

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1jEzAwd Tyler Durden