Tag: finance

In the past two weeks there was significant speculation that the Fukushima catastrophe was once again rapidly escalating after plumes of mysterious smoke were detected above the destroyed Reactor 3 – the one with a mixed MOX and uranium fuel core. RT described it as follows:

Fresh plumes of most probably radioactive steam have been detected rising from the reactor 3 building at the crippled Fukushima nuclear plant, said the facility’s operator company.

 

The steam has been detected by surveillance cameras and appeared to be coming from the fifth floor of the mostly-destroyed building housing crippled reactor 3, according to Tokyo Electric Power Co (TEPCO), the plant’s operator.

 

The steam was first spotted on December 19 for a short period of time, then again on December 24, 25, 27, according to a report TEPCO published on its website.

 

The company, responsible for the cleanup of the worst nuclear disaster since Chernobyl, has not explained the source of the steam or the reason it is rising from the reactor building. High levels of radiation have complicated entry into the building and further inspection of the situation.

Naturally, fears arose that more uncontrolled meltdowns were in process at the exploded reactor.

This morning, probably in order to assuage fears that it has lost control more than usual, TEPCO released the following statement “Regarding Certain Overseas Reports on Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station.” TEPCO’s soothing words – “We found no abnormalities in the measured values (indicating the temperature and condition of the Reactor Building), or in the value of the monitoring post (monitoring the amount of radiation), even when the steam-like gas was being generated, therefore we are certain that there has been no influence on the outside. In addition, we measured the amount of radiation at the point from which steam-like gas was generated, and found that its amount was almost the same as for the other neighboring points.”

And as everyone knows by now, TEPCO would never lie. Finally, the question of why TEPCO would issue a press release to respond to “media rumors” is an open one.

Full statement from the semi-nationalized company:

Regarding Certain Overseas Reports on Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station

Some overseas press outlets are reporting that steam is being generated from Unit 3 at Fukushima Daiichi NPS and its condition is dangerous, releasing radioactive material, and that there were two underground nuclear explosions at the site. However, such information is incorrect, and we have found no change in the status of the plant.

Steam generation on the operating floor at Unit 3, and the detection of highly concentrated radioactive material at groundwater observation holes etc., have been pointed out as the basis for the overseas reports. We respond to these as follows.

– Steam-like gas generated on the operating floor at Unit 3 in Fukushima Daiichi NPS

Since July 2013, steam-like gas has been intermittently observed on the operating floor at Unit 3. The steam-like gas is estimated to emerge via the following sequence.
1) Accumulated hygroscopic moisture, such as rainwater, exists below the shield plug (a lid made of concrete).
2) The hygroscopic moisture is heated by the heat radiated from the top of the Primary Containment Vessel (PCV).
3) The heated hygroscopic moisture is released onto the operating floor via the gap of the shield plug.
4) The released moisture is cooled down by the cool atmosphere, giving it the appearance of a steam-like gas.

We found no abnormalities in the measured values (indicating the temperature and condition of the Reactor Building), or in the value of the monitoring post (monitoring the amount of radiation), even when the steam-like gas was being generated, therefore we are certain that there has been no influence on the outside.
In addition, we measured the amount of radiation at the point from which steam-like gas was generated, and found that its amount was almost the same as for the other neighboring points.

– Highly-concentrated radioactive material found at the observation holes

We have been monitoring the groundwater sampled at the observation holes established to investigate the contamination status of groundwater, for the purpose of investigating the effects of the leak of contaminated water from the contaminated water storage tanks in August 2013. At the end of 2013, the measurement value for Tritium, one of the radioactive materials in the water sampled at the observation hole near the tank that suffered leakage, increased from 34,000Bq/L (on December 28) to 450,000Bq/L (on January 1). This increase in the value could be attributed to 1) the contaminated water that previously leaked from the tank soaking into the nearby ground, or 2) the effects of the water pumping^* (^*we have been pumping up the contaminated groundwater at the nearby observation holes, however the amount being pumped up was temporarily decreased at the end of 2013). The value decreased to 17,000Bq/L on January 8. Highly concentrated tritium (almost equivalent concentration level) was found in this observation hole in the past, and the highest concentrated tritium 790,000Bq/L was also found here on October 17, 2013.

– Earthquake on December 31, 2013

Some overseas press outlets reported that underground nuclear explosions caused several quakes with magnitudes of 5.1 and 3.6.
According to the Japanese Meteorological Agency, 13 earthquakes (with a maximum magnitude of 5.4) occurred and originated in the north part of Ibaraki Prefecture on December 31 2013. None of these earthquakes was caused by Fukushima Daiichi NPS. We also found no accidents or trouble etc. in Fukushima Daiichi NPS.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/ws-__um2Cf0/story01.htm Tyler Durden

In the past two weeks there was significant speculation that the Fukushima catastrophe was once again rapidly escalating after plumes of mysterious smoke were detected above the destroyed Reactor 3 – the one with a mixed MOX and uranium fuel core. RT described it as follows:

Fresh plumes of most probably radioactive steam have been detected rising from the reactor 3 building at the crippled Fukushima nuclear plant, said the facility’s operator company.

 

The steam has been detected by surveillance cameras and appeared to be coming from the fifth floor of the mostly-destroyed building housing crippled reactor 3, according to Tokyo Electric Power Co (TEPCO), the plant’s operator.

 

The steam was first spotted on December 19 for a short period of time, then again on December 24, 25, 27, according to a report TEPCO published on its website.

 

The company, responsible for the cleanup of the worst nuclear disaster since Chernobyl, has not explained the source of the steam or the reason it is rising from the reactor building. High levels of radiation have complicated entry into the building and further inspection of the situation.

Naturally, fears arose that more uncontrolled meltdowns were in process at the exploded reactor.

This morning, probably in order to assuage fears that it has lost control more than usual, TEPCO released the following statement “Regarding Certain Overseas Reports on Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station.” TEPCO’s soothing words – “We found no abnormalities in the measured values (indicating the temperature and condition of the Reactor Building), or in the value of the monitoring post (monitoring the amount of radiation), even when the steam-like gas was being generated, therefore we are certain that there has been no influence on the outside. In addition, we measured the amount of radiation at the point from which steam-like gas was generated, and found that its amount was almost the same as for the other neighboring points.”

And as everyone knows by now, TEPCO would never lie. Finally, the question of why TEPCO would issue a press release to respond to “media rumors” is an open one.

Full statement from the semi-nationalized company:

Regarding Certain Overseas Reports on Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station

Some overseas press outlets are reporting that steam is being generated from Unit 3 at Fukushima Daiichi NPS and its condition is dangerous, releasing radioactive material, and that there were two underground nuclear explosions at the site. However, such information is incorrect, and we have found no change in the status of the plant.

Steam generation on the operating floor at Unit 3, and the detection of highly concentrated radioactive material at groundwater observation holes etc., have been pointed out as the basis for the overseas reports. We respond to these as follows.

– Steam-like gas generated on the operating floor at Unit 3 in Fukushima Daiichi NPS

Since July 2013, steam-like gas has been intermittently observed on the operating floor at Unit 3. The steam-like gas is estimated to emerge via the following sequence.
1) Accumulated hygroscopic moisture, such as rainwater, exists below the shield plug (a lid made of concrete).
2) The hygroscopic moisture is heated by the heat radiated from the top of the Primary Containment Vessel (PCV).
3) The heated hygroscopic moisture is released onto the operating floor via the gap of the shield plug.
4) The released moisture is cooled down by the cool atmosphere, giving it the appearance of a steam-like gas.

We found no abnormalities in the measured values (indicating the temperature and condition of the Reactor Building), or in the value of the monitoring post (monitoring the amount of radiation), even when the steam-like gas was being generated, therefore we are certain that there has been no influence on the outside.
In addition, we measured the amount of radiation at the point from which steam-like gas was generated, and found that its amount was almost the same as for the other neighboring points.

– Highly-concentrated radioactive material found at the observation holes

We have been monitoring the groundwater sampled at the observation holes established to investigate the contamination status of groundwater, for the purpose of investigating the effects of the leak of contaminated water from the contaminated water storage tanks in August 2013. At the end of 2013, the measurement value for Tritium, one of the radioactive materials in the water sampled at the observation hole near the tank that suffered leakage, increased from 34,000Bq/L (on December 28) to 450,000Bq/L (on January 1). This increase in the value could be attributed to 1) the contaminated water that previously leaked from the tank soaking into the nearby ground, or 2) the effects of the water pumping^* (^*we have been pumping up the contaminated groundwater at the nearby observation holes, however the amount being pumped up was temporarily decreased at the end of 2013). The value decreased to 17,000Bq/L on January 8. Highly concentrated tritium (almost equivalent concentration level) was found in this observation hole in the past, and the highest concentrated tritium 790,000Bq/L was also found here on October 17, 2013.

– Earthquake on December 31, 2013

Some overseas press outlets reported that underground nuclear explosions caused several quakes with magnitudes of 5.1 and 3.6.
According to the Japanese Meteorological Agency, 13 earthquakes (with a maximum magnitude of 5.4) occurred and originated in the north part of Ibaraki Prefecture on December 31 2013. None of these earthquakes was caused by Fukushima Daiichi NPS. We also found no accidents or trouble etc. in Fukushima Daiichi NPS.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/ws-__um2Cf0/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Risks surrounding the looming release of the latest jobs report by the BLS later on in the session failed to weigh on sentiment and heading into the North American open, stocks in Europe are seen higher across the board. The SMI index in Switzerland outperformed its peers since the get-go, with Swatch Group trading up over 3% after the company said that it expects good results for 2013 at operating profit and net income level. At the same time, in spite of stocks trading in the green, Bunds remained better bid, with peripheral bond yield spreads wider as market participants booked profits following the aggressive tightening observed earlier in the week amid solid Spanish bond auctions, as well as syndications by Ireland and Portugal. Fake Chinese trade data failed to boost Chinese stocks, which dropped anoter 0.7% and is just 13 points above 2000 as Shanghai remains one of the world’s worst performing markets since the financial crisis. The yoyoing Nikkei was largely unchanged. All eyes today will be fixed on the headline streamer at 8:30 when the latest nonfarm payrolls report is released.

Looking at today’s calendar, outside of payrolls, we get industrial production updates from Spain, France and the UK, as well as German retail sales (all for the month of November). Wholesale inventories and the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism survey round out the week’s data docket. The Fed’s Lacker and Bullard speak on the economy today.

US event docket:

• NFP, cons +195K; unemployment rate 7.0% (14:30)
• Fed speakers Lacker (14:45); Bullard (19:00)
• POMO:
  $2.50 – $3.50 billion in 10/31/2019 – 12/31/2020 bucket

Overnight headline bulletin

• European stocks traded higher this morning despite the upcoming jobs report from the US
• Widening peripheral spreads have seen a bid tone for Bunds as participants look to book profits
• Treasuries steady, 10Y yield little changed before report forecast to show U.S. economy added 197k jobs in Dec. while unemployment rate held at 7.0%.
• Numerous firms have raised payrolls forecast after better than expected ADP report on Jan. 9; traders’ view is for at least 225k, according to FTN’s Jim Vogel
• Lenders are poised to win concessions from central bank chiefs and global regulators over a debt limit they criticized as a blunt instrument that would penalize low-risk activities and curtail lending
• China’s imports rose 8.3% in Dec., the most in five months; exports rose 4.3%, a pace that may be distorted by fake invoices. The trade surplus was $25.6b
• The U.S. and Philippines criticized China for threatening stability in the South China Sea after it introduced fishing rules requiring foreign vessels to seek permission before entering waters off its southern coast
• U.K. industrial output was unchanged in Nov. vs forecasts for an increase of 0.4%
• Most uninsured people in the U.S. have yet to try to sign up for Obamacare, and a key advocacy group said it will hire more workers to reach those unfamiliar with the law
• Sovereign yields mostly lower; EU peripheral spreads widen. Nikkei little changed, Shanghai Composite falls 0.8%. European stocks gain, U.S. equity-index futures rise.  WTI crude, gold and copper gain

Asian Headlines

Chinese Trade Balance (USD) (Dec) M/M 25.64bln vs. Exp. 32.15bln (Prev. 33.80bln)
– Chinese Exports (Dec) Y/Y 4.3% vs. Exp. 5.0% (Prev. 12.7%)
– Chinese Imports (Dec) Y/Y 8.3% vs. Exp. 5.0% (Prev. 5.3%)

The PBOC have reiterated their prudent monetary policy and said they are to maintain appropriate growth in credit and social financing.

EU & UK Headlines

UK Industrial Production (Nov) M/M 0.0% vs Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.4%, Rev. 0.3%) – Production hit by fall in gas output.
– UK Industrial Production (Nov) Y/Y 2.5% vs Exp. 3.0% (Prev. 3.2%)

UK Manufacturing Production (Nov) M/M 0.0% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.4%, Rev. to 0.2%)
– UK Manufacturing Production (Nov) Y/Y 2.8% vs. Exp. 3.3% (Prev. 2.7%, Rev. to 2.6%)

UK Construction Output SA (Nov) M/M -4.0% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. 2.2%, Rev. to 2.0%) – largest fall since June 2012

UK Construction Output SA (Nov) Y/Y 2.2% vs. Exp. 7.5% (Prev. 5.3%, Rev. to 5.1%)

French Industrial Production (Nov) M/M 1.3% vs Exp. 0.4% (Prev. -0.3%, Rev. -0.5%)
– French Industrial Production (Nov) Y/Y 1.5% vs Exp. 0.9% (Prev. 0.0%, Rev. -0.3%)
– French Manufacturing Production (Nov) M/M 0.2% vs Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.4%, Rev. 0.3%)
– French Manufacturing Production (Nov) Y/Y 1.6% vs Exp. 1.5% (Prev. 0.7%, Rev. 0.5%)

S&P affirmed Germany at AAA/A-1+; outlook stable citing steady growth. S&P added that the German economy will grow steady over the medium term, averaging above 1.5% real GDP per capita growth 2014-2016.

The ECB have said banks are to repay EUR 2.566bln in 3y LTRO loans and repay EUR 0.98bln in 1st 3y LTRO op and EUR 1.586bln in 2nd 3y LTRO op.

The ECB said some member states provided incomplete information according to an ECB Q&A document on the ECB’s role on the Troika.

US Headlines

Fed Chairman Bernanke offered an optimistic view on the US economy’s prospects in a lunch with Senators yesterday, according to Senator Carper.

Fed’s Williams (Non-voter, dove) forecasts growing upside risks to economy and sees economic growth picking up to more than 3% in 2014 and 2015.

Fed’s Kocherlakota (Non-voter, dove) said the Fed could do better by adopting a more accommodative monetary policy stance.

Equities

European stocks traded higher throughout the session, with health care related stocks outperforming after UBS added Novartis, Roche and AstraZeneca to its most preferred list. As a result, pharma heavy SMI index outperformed its peers, with Swatch Group also trading sharply higher after the company said that it expects good results for 2013 at operating profit and net income level.

After-market yesterday Alcoa kicked-off the US earnings season by reporting Q4 Adj. EPS USD 0.04 vs. Exp. USD 0.06. Q4 revenue USD 5.585bln vs. Exp. USD 5.34bln. Co. shares are seen down 5.6% pre-market.

Also after-market Chevron said they see Q4 earnings comparable to Q3.

FX

The release of weaker than expected macroeconomic data from the UK ensured that GBP underperformed its peers, with GBP/USD falling below moving below its 21DMA line as a result. A combination of a firmer USD and risk-on sentiment, supported USD/JPY. However, touted offers by an Asian central bank prevented the pair from making a break above the key psychological 105.00 level.

Commodities

India’s December gold and silver imports down 68.83% Y/Y at USD 1.77bln. It has also been reported that India’s Finance Ministry is to decide on easing gold import curbs.

Shanghai Gold Exchange will set up an international board in the Shanghai free-trade zone in the first half of this year to attract overseas investment in gold.

China boosted net crude imports to a record high last month as two new refineries prepared to begin operations.

China are to cut diesel price by CNY 120/ton.

Iran and world powers meet for the second day in Geneva today, so we remain vigilant for any respective updates.

* * *

In conclusion, here is Jim Reid’s overnight event recap

So here we go again. Another payroll Friday is upon us. Our US economists are going for a consensus busting +250k on nonfarm payrolls and 6.8% on the unemployment rate (street at 197k and 7.0% although some may not have adjusted post the strong ADP). They note that weather can often play a part this time of year so any big deviation from forecasts first needs to be checked off against those workers who could not work or worked reduced hours due to inclement weather. Equity markets continue to be a bit on the soft side this year (albeit in only a week of trading) which in part is due to fears that strong data is going to force yields up or the Fed to increase the pace of tapering. With that in mind it’s not clear that a number close to DB’s forecast would ease these fears. Markets should do better in the short-term with a number closer to the stated consensus.

Indeed, there is a hint of nervousness in Asia as we head into today’s payrolls with most Asian bourses edging lower. Equities are down about a quarter to half a percent across the region with the notable exception in the Hang Seng (+0.2%). China’s December trade report was a bit mixed with exports disappointing (4.3% YoY vs 5.0% expected) but imports beating consensus (8.3% vs 5.0% expected) leaving a smaller than estimated trade balance of $26bn (vs $32bn expected). The Chinese customs department said that the figures are indicative of the country’s push for demand-driven growth. Chinese markets have largely shrugged off the disappointing trade balance and AUDUSD is trading higher following the print.

In terms of the ECB yesterday, the central bank didn’t surprise many by staying put on policy, but Draghi’s press conference had a number of interesting elements to it. DB’s Wall and Moec characterised his comments as “Loud verbal intervention” which is fair considering he seemed to dial up the rhetoric at the associated press conference. Draghi detailed the two “contingencies” in which it would act to ease policy: first, an unwarranted tightening of money markets, and second, a deterioration in medium-term inflation expectations. Wall and Moec continue to believe the next move will be something modest in terms of impact but Draghi seemed to keep the options open for a more substantial policy response if the situation merits it. Quite a few people at DB suggested he was hinting that QE wasn’t beyond the ECB.

Indeed, Gilles Moec argued in a note yesterday that European QE should not be considered a taboo option. If the Euro area’s GDP grows by 1% this year, as per the ECB’s forecast, the massive slack accumulated in the region is unlikely to decline much, leaving deflationary pressure intact – and deflationary bubbles have a nasty habit of being self-reinforcing. If inflation expectations were to effectively shift down, he thinks that the most commonly talked about weapons in the ECB’s arsenal – another round of vLTROs and/or a negative deposit rate – would not be up to the task. LTROs are a weak substitute to pure Quantitative Easing (QE), which itself is a weak form of unconventional policy relative to Credit Easing (CE), which is the Fed’s approach. Like QE, LTROs create large excess reserves, but unlike QE this is not done on a permanent basis and is demand-led rather than controlled by the central bank. CE focuses on the impact of change in the central bank’s asset side, i.e. how the purchases of assets can alter the entire yield curve and boost the price of riskier assets. True, the financial structure of the Euro area means that some of the transmission channels of CE, such as wealth effects boosting consumption, would be weaker than in the US. However, significantly lowering the interest rate on government bonds would in their view be the most efficient and least disruptive way to wean banks off this asset class and incentivize them to lend to the private sector again.

Staying in Europe, strong demand at Portugal’s 5-year syndication, a solid Spanish treasury auction and the successful return of bailed-out Spanish bank Bankia to the European corporate bond markets (its EUR1bn issue was well oversubscribed) saw European banks leading the way higher. But that move fell away as the US market opened leaving the Stoxx600 (-0.4% on the day) back at where it started the year while the S&P500 (+0.03%) was basically unchanged on the day. The fall off in risk at the back half of the European session perhaps suggested some disappointment that the ECB/Draghi didn’t do more to ease policy and a general apprehensiveness ahead of payrolls to a certain extent. US initial jobless claims (330k vs 335k expected) were a touch better than expected but were largely ignored. Elsewhere EM equities had their 6th down day for the year (MSCI EM – 1%) and US earnings season got off to a lacklustre start judging by Alcoa’s postmarket Q4 results announcement (adjusted EPS $0.04 vs $0.06 expected). Alcoa said its results were affected by challenging pricing conditions in Europe and inventory buildup. Its stock fell 4% at one stage in aftermarket trading. In terms of Fed Speak, Janet Yellen became the latest to forecast stronger US growth this year, saying that she was hopeful of GDP growth with a 3-handle in 2014, according to an interview in Time Magazine. There are also reports filtering out that Bernanke’s private meeting with US senators yesterday was relatively upbeat, with the Fed Chairman saying that reductions in federal deficits and an improving energy trade position are “encouraging developments”.

Looking at today’s calendar, outside of payrolls, we get industrial production updates from Spain, France and the UK, as well as German retail sales (all for the month of November). Wholesale inventories and the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism survey round out the week’s data docket. The Fed’s Lacker and Bullard speak on the economy today.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/C5FyYcF9yXU/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Submitted by Michael Krieger of Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

How fortunate for governments that the people they administer don’t think.
– Adolf Hitler

The headline of this post is one that I am not sure how to interpret, but undoubtably marks something of significance. Personally, there have been many occasions throughout my youth, as well as my adult life, where I had a desire to read Mein Kampf. I was always curious to get into the mind of one of humanity’s greatest sociopaths. To get a glimpse of the thought process of a man capable of such cruelty and evil. To understand the types of words he used and the various psychological tactics he employed to manipulate an economically destitute and politically demoralized German population.

These feelings welled up inside of me once again back in 2008, when I feared that a financial and economic meltdown could cause the U.S. population to be thrust into the arms of a demagogue. I wanted to be able to more accurately identify the rhetoric of one of history’s more “successful” demagogue dictators in order to be able to spot similar trends should they arise in my time.

While I never got around to reading it, I did read part of one of Hitler’s speeches from before the war. It was interesting to not how he did not openly speak as a raging psychopath on his way to destroying much of Europe. Rather, he attempted to appeal to his audience as rational, passionate leader there to protect and exalt the German people back to greatness. That was the scariest thing of all.

This is what the top sales chart on iTunes’ category Politics and Current Events looks like.

At this point I’d like to remain hopeful that these sales trends spring from a similar curiosity on behalf of the population, rather than from a darker more hateful place.

From Time:

The infamous manifesto Adolf Hitler wrote while in prison after a failed coup in 1923, Mein Kampf or My Struggle, in which the dictator outlined his idea of a global Jewish conspiracy, is a surprise hit on the ebook market. While the book’s print copy sales remain stagnant, the ebook is in the top 20 on iTunes’s Politics & Events chart, next to books by Sarah Palin and Glenn Beck, the number one Propaganda & Political Psychology book on Amazon, and the 17th bestseller in the company’s Nationalism list. How could that be?

 

Chris Faraone explains why in a fascinating essaythat argues ebooks provide the perfect format for reading controversial material. “Mein Kampf could be following a similar trend to that of smut and romance novels,” Faraone writes. Customers may have not wanted to be seen reading the book or having it on their shelf at home, but the cheap digital copies “can be quietly perused then dropped into a folder or deleted.”

 

Ebook reviewers’ comments support the 50 Shades of Grey theory. “I think I waited 45 years to read Hitler’s words… I wish I had read it sooner,” wrote Steven Wagg. “Curiosity killed me to get this book,” said another reviewer. The document also functions as a warning: “People need to understand that if we do not learn from people like this, then we will fall into their traps again,” Ray D’Aguanno wrote on Amazon.

Full article here.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/8a5T4FYalJc/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Submitted by Michael Krieger of Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

How fortunate for governments that the people they administer don’t think.
– Adolf Hitler

The headline of this post is one that I am not sure how to interpret, but undoubtably marks something of significance. Personally, there have been many occasions throughout my youth, as well as my adult life, where I had a desire to read Mein Kampf. I was always curious to get into the mind of one of humanity’s greatest sociopaths. To get a glimpse of the thought process of a man capable of such cruelty and evil. To understand the types of words he used and the various psychological tactics he employed to manipulate an economically destitute and politically demoralized German population.

These feelings welled up inside of me once again back in 2008, when I feared that a financial and economic meltdown could cause the U.S. population to be thrust into the arms of a demagogue. I wanted to be able to more accurately identify the rhetoric of one of history’s more “successful” demagogue dictators in order to be able to spot similar trends should they arise in my time.

While I never got around to reading it, I did read part of one of Hitler’s speeches from before the war. It was interesting to not how he did not openly speak as a raging psychopath on his way to destroying much of Europe. Rather, he attempted to appeal to his audience as rational, passionate leader there to protect and exalt the German people back to greatness. That was the scariest thing of all.

This is what the top sales chart on iTunes’ category Politics and Current Events looks like.

At this point I’d like to remain hopeful that these sales trends spring from a similar curiosity on behalf of the population, rather than from a darker more hateful place.

From Time:

The infamous manifesto Adolf Hitler wrote while in prison after a failed coup in 1923, Mein Kampf or My Struggle, in which the dictator outlined his idea of a global Jewish conspiracy, is a surprise hit on the ebook market. While the book’s print copy sales remain stagnant, the ebook is in the top 20 on iTunes’s Politics & Events chart, next to books by Sarah Palin and Glenn Beck, the number one Propaganda & Political Psychology book on Amazon, and the 17th bestseller in the company’s Nationalism list. How could that be?

 

Chris Faraone explains why in a fascinating essaythat argues ebooks provide the perfect format for reading controversial material. “Mein Kampf could be following a similar trend to that of smut and romance novels,” Faraone writes. Customers may have not wanted to be seen reading the book or having it on their shelf at home, but the cheap digital copies “can be quietly perused then dropped into a folder or deleted.”

 

Ebook reviewers’ comments support the 50 Shades of Grey theory. “I think I waited 45 years to read Hitler’s words… I wish I had read it sooner,” wrote Steven Wagg. “Curiosity killed me to get this book,” said another reviewer. The document also functions as a warning: “People need to understand that if we do not learn from people like this, then we will fall into their traps again,” Ray D’Aguanno wrote on Amazon.

Full article here.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/8a5T4FYalJc/story01.htm Tyler Durden

From "The Appla Store" to "Sffcccks Coffee", the southern Chinese city of Wuxi has seen a "street of fakes" sprout up that flaunts modified name of famous international stores. As the South China Morning Post reports, on this commercial street, located near the Wuxi East Railway Station, the "shanzai" (translated – knock-offs) are in fact all empty – designed to entice buyers of commercial and residential property in yet another ghost city to lever-up and speculate.

Via The South China Morning Post,

Of course, we are sure there is a real economy somewhere under all of this – somewhere…

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/0gqYZvM5C8w/story01.htm Tyler Durden

From "The Appla Store" to "Sffcccks Coffee", the southern Chinese city of Wuxi has seen a "street of fakes" sprout up that flaunts modified name of famous international stores. As the South China Morning Post reports, on this commercial street, located near the Wuxi East Railway Station, the "shanzai" (translated – knock-offs) are in fact all empty – designed to entice buyers of commercial and residential property in yet another ghost city to lever-up and speculate.

Via The South China Morning Post,

Of course, we are sure there is a real economy somewhere under all of this – somewhere…

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/0gqYZvM5C8w/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Goldman forecasts a gain of 200k non-farm payroll jobs tomorrow (against a 196k consensus +/-25k). Factors arguing for a solid print include the recent trend, an improvement in most employment indicators already released for the month, the compressed holiday hiring period, and a potential "couriers and messengers effect." On the negative side, Goldman warns cold weather is a downside risk. With respect to other aspects of the release, in general they note that the December report has not shown an overwhelming tendency to contain back-revisions in one direction or the other; and forecast an unchanged unemployment rate at 7.0%, and a 0.2% month-on-month gain in average hourly earnings.

Top of the pile is the one and only Joe Lavorgna of Deutsche at 250k with Toby Dayton of LinkUp bringing up the rear with 100k (and apparently only 77 of the 90 estimates are from "qualified economists")

Via Goldman Sachs' Kris Dawsey,

A number of factors point to a solid report:

1. Sturdy recent trend. Payroll job gains have been running at 180,000 – 200,000/mo on a trend basis recently. Our labor market tracker, which aggregates a number of key labor market indicators into a single summary measure, was consistent with 190,000/mo payroll job growth on a three-month average basis through November.

2. Improving labor differential. The Conference Board's labor differential?the net percent of respondents in the consumer confidence survey reporting jobs plentiful vs. jobs hard to get?rose further in December, continuing its uptrend over the past two years.

3. Better ISM services employment index. Although the ISM services report taken as a whole was softer than expected in December, the employment component rose 3.3pt to 55.8. With most responses received late in the month, the improvement may also reflect on January payrolls given the early- to mid-month timing of the payroll reference period (pay period including the 12th of the month).

4. Strong ADP report. ADP employment posted a strong 238,000 gain in December, the strongest initial print since the index methodology was revised in 2012. Although a stronger-than-expected ADP report foreshadowed a larger-than-expected payroll gain in November, the ADP report has yet to prove itself as a reliable indicator of the official payrolls estimate.

5. Lower layoffs. According to the Challenger, Gray, and Christmas layoff report, announced job cuts in December were the lowest in 13 years, declining 5.9% year-over-year.

6. Compressed holiday hiring period. Because of the late timing of Thanksgiving and Black Friday, holiday hiring was likely somewhat more compressed this year between the November and December payroll reference periods. This could result in a stronger December gain.

7. Potential couriers and messengers effect. Seasonal hiring of couriers and messengers has increased significantly in recent years as an increasing share of holiday shopping is done online and as such must be delivered. This year, some large firms reportedly increased seasonal hiring above the levels seen in prior years. However, as shown in Exhibit 1 seasonal adjustment difficulty associated with the couriers and messengers category has resulted in increasing volatility in recent years. This is a significant question mark for the December report.

A few other signals were mixed to negative:

1. Higher jobless claims. The four-week moving average of initial jobless claims edged higher by 4,500 from the November to December reference weeks. However, initial jobless claims are typically volatile between Thanksgiving and the early weeks of the new year, so we take little signal from the uptick.

2. Mixed online job ads. The conference Board's monthly measure of online job advertising was mixed in December, with total ads rising but new ads falling. The data were similarly mixed on a three-month change basis.

3. Bad weather. Exhibit 2 shows the deviation in heating degree days from longer-term averages over the past several years. Weather was particularly cold during the December reference period, potentially subtracting around 10,000 from payroll job growth. Weather-sensitive sectors such as construction and leisure & hospitality (ex-ski industry) would be expected to show a disproportionate hit from colder-than-normal weather. The weather could also negatively influence the average weekly hours series.

The longer-term average revision to October and November payrolls found in the December report is roughly zero. However, over the past four years (post-recession) the average two-month revision in the December report has been +19,000, with substantial dispersion. Overall, the December report has not shown an overwhelming tendency to contain back-revisions in one direction or the other.

Regarding other aspects of the employment report, we expect the unemployment rate to remain at 7.0% (from an unrounded 7.0235% in November). Potential distortions to the unemployment rate associated with the expiration of emergency unemployment benefits would not become apparent until the January report. Average hourly earnings likely rose 0.2% month-on-month, in line with their recent trend.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/nVzKDmfgiSg/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Goldman forecasts a gain of 200k non-farm payroll jobs tomorrow (against a 196k consensus +/-25k). Factors arguing for a solid print include the recent trend, an improvement in most employment indicators already released for the month, the compressed holiday hiring period, and a potential "couriers and messengers effect." On the negative side, Goldman warns cold weather is a downside risk. With respect to other aspects of the release, in general they note that the December report has not shown an overwhelming tendency to contain back-revisions in one direction or the other; and forecast an unchanged unemployment rate at 7.0%, and a 0.2% month-on-month gain in average hourly earnings.

Top of the pile is the one and only Joe Lavorgna of Deutsche at 250k with Toby Dayton of LinkUp bringing up the rear with 100k (and apparently only 77 of the 90 estimates are from "qualified economists")

Via Goldman Sachs' Kris Dawsey,

A number of factors point to a solid report:

1. Sturdy recent trend. Payroll job gains have been running at 180,000 – 200,000/mo on a trend basis recently. Our labor market tracker, which aggregates a number of key labor market indicators into a single summary measure, was consistent with 190,000/mo payroll job growth on a three-month average basis through November.

2. Improving labor differential. The Conference Board's labor differential?the net percent of respondents in the consumer confidence survey reporting jobs plentiful vs. jobs hard to get?rose further in December, continuing its uptrend over the past two years.

3. Better ISM services employment index. Although the ISM services report taken as a whole was softer than expected in December, the employment component rose 3.3pt to 55.8. With most responses received late in the month, the improvement may also reflect on January payrolls given the early- to mid-month timing of the payroll reference period (pay period including the 12th of the month).

4. Strong ADP report. ADP employment posted a strong 238,000 gain in December, the strongest initial print since the index methodology was revised in 2012. Although a stronger-than-expected ADP report foreshadowed a larger-than-expected payroll gain in November, the ADP report has yet to prove itself as a reliable indicator of the official payrolls estimate.

5. Lower layoffs. According to the Challenger, Gray, and Christmas layoff report, announced job cuts in December were the lowest in 13 years, declining 5.9% year-over-year.

6. Compressed holiday hiring period. Because of the late timing of Thanksgiving and Black Friday, holiday hiring was likely somewhat more compressed this year between the November and December payroll reference periods. This could result in a stronger December gain.

7. Potential couriers and messengers effect. Seasonal hiring of couriers and messengers has increased significantly in recent years as an increasing share of holiday shopping is done online and as such must be delivered. This year, some large firms reportedly increased seasonal hiring above the levels seen in prior years. However, as shown in Exhibit 1 seasonal adjustment difficulty associated with the couriers and messengers category has resulted in increasing volatility in recent years. This is a significant question mark for the December report.

A few other signals were mixed to negative:

1. Higher jobless claims. The four-week moving average of initial jobless claims edged higher by 4,500 from the November to December reference weeks. However, initial jobless claims are typically volatile between Thanksgiving and the early weeks of the new year, so we take little signal from the uptick.

2. Mixed online job ads. The conference Board's monthly measure of online job advertising was mixed in December, with total ads rising but new ads falling. The data were similarly mixed on a three-month change basis.

3. Bad weather. Exhibit 2 shows the deviation in heating degree days from longer-term averages over the past several years. Weather was particularly cold during the December reference period, potentially subtracting around 10,000 from payroll job growth. Weather-sensitive sectors such as construction and leisure & hospitality (ex-ski industry) would be expected to show a disproportionate hit from colder-than-normal weather. The weather could also negatively influence the average weekly hours series.

The longer-term average revision to October and November payrolls found in the December report is roughly zero. However, over the past four years (post-recession) the average two-month revision in the December report has been +19,000, with substantial dispersion. Overall, the December report has not shown an overwhelming tendency to contain back-revisions in one direction or the other.

Regarding other aspects of the employment report, we expect the unemployment rate to remain at 7.0% (from an unrounded 7.0235% in November). Potential distortions to the unemployment rate associated with the expiration of emergency unemployment benefits would not become apparent until the January report. Average hourly earnings likely rose 0.2% month-on-month, in line with their recent trend.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/nVzKDmfgiSg/story01.htm Tyler Durden