Tag: finance

Between his downbeat “more downside risks” outlook, “extended low inflation” perspective, and strengthened “forward guidance,” Draghi has, once again, managed to talk down the EUR (for now). EURUSD has dropped almost 100 pips since he began speaking…”we firmly reiterate our forward guidance that we continue to expect the key ECB interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time,” adding that “the Governing Council strongly emphasizes that it will maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy for as long as necessary.” US Treasuries are rallying alongside this tumble.

 

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/pmpcWvPSvVw/story01.htm Tyler Durden

The Department of Labor states that there is no indication that the winter storm affected this week’s numbers (though they are likely to remain volatile through January) as jobless claims dropped from a ubiquitously revised-upwards 345k to 330k this week – the lowest level since the end of November. Continuing claims rose modestly back into the middle of the range of the last 4 months just like initial claims. The emergency claims data is lagged so we will not see the impact of congressional decisions on that until 2 weeks from now but its worth noting that the data we alreayd have shows 104,000 dropping off the rolls. California, Pennsylvania, and Michigan topped the initial claimants list with California worse than this time last year.

Initial claims stuck in a 4 month range…

 

but emergency benefits continue to see people fall off the rolls – down 104k for the week of 12/20/13…

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/vdweq5oRhQY/story01.htm Tyler Durden

The Department of Labor states that there is no indication that the winter storm affected this week’s numbers (though they are likely to remain volatile through January) as jobless claims dropped from a ubiquitously revised-upwards 345k to 330k this week – the lowest level since the end of November. Continuing claims rose modestly back into the middle of the range of the last 4 months just like initial claims. The emergency claims data is lagged so we will not see the impact of congressional decisions on that until 2 weeks from now but its worth noting that the data we alreayd have shows 104,000 dropping off the rolls. California, Pennsylvania, and Michigan topped the initial claimants list with California worse than this time last year.

Initial claims stuck in a 4 month range…

 

but emergency benefits continue to see people fall off the rolls – down 104k for the week of 12/20/13…

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/vdweq5oRhQY/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Despite record unemployment, record loan delinquencies, and record low loan creation, Mario Draghi and his merry European men decided now was not the time to cut rates to “help” the real economy. Of course, with peripheral bond and stock markets exploding higher why would he – Europe’s ‘problems’ are solved if the market is to be believed. Of course the ECB press conference will have its smattering of negative rate discussions, QE teases, and OMT confidence-inspiration but the multi-year highs in EUR will continue to hurt Europe’s exporters means he’ll have to try sometime to jawbone it down.

 

Draghi starts off on a less than cheerful, quite defaltionary, note:

• DRAGHI: EURO AREA MAY FACE PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOW INFLATION
• DRAGHI SAYS EURO AREA GROWTH RISKS REMAIN `ON THE DOWNSIDE
• DRAGHI SAYS POLICY TO REMAIN ACCOMMODATIVE AS LONG AS NEEDED
• DRAGHI SAYS UNDERLYING PRICE PRESSURES TO REMAIN SUBDUED
• DRAGHI SAYS MONETARY, CREDIT DYNAMICS REMAIN SUBDUED
• DRAGHI SAYS UNEMPLOYMENT REMAINS HIGH
• DRAGHI SEES DOWNSIDE RISKS TO ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
• DRAGHI SAYS BALANCE-SHEET ADJUSTMENTS WILL WEIGH ON ACTIVITY
• DRAGHI: COMMODITY PRICES, SLOW REFORMS ALSO DOWNSIDE RISKS

The EURUSD, after it was sent higher before the conference by momentum ignition algos, did not like these statements:

And some more upbeat assessments:

• DRAGHI SAYS POLICY STANCE TO SUPPORT GRADUAL ECONOMIC RECOVERY
• DRAGHI SAYS INFLATION WILL RISE GRADUALLY THEREAFTER
• DRAGHI SAYS HIGHER COMMODITY PRICES ARE UPSIDE INFLATION RISK
• DRAGHI SAYS RISKS TO INFLATION BROADLY BALANCED
• DRAGHI: INFLATION SEEN AROUND CURRENT LEVELS IN COMING MONTHS
• DRAGHI SAYS LATEST INFLATION DATA BROADLY AS EXPECTED
• DRAGHI SAYS REAL INCOMES BENEFIT FROM LOWER ENERGY PRICES
• DRAGHI SAYS HIGHER COMMODITY PRICES ARE UPSIDE INFLATION RISK

Better have something good in the Q&A or else Draghi may rapidly become Trichet.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/UOmIQgn19R4/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Despite record unemployment, record loan delinquencies, and record low loan creation, Mario Draghi and his merry European men decided now was not the time to cut rates to “help” the real economy. Of course, with peripheral bond and stock markets exploding higher why would he – Europe’s ‘problems’ are solved if the market is to be believed. Of course the ECB press conference will have its smattering of negative rate discussions, QE teases, and OMT confidence-inspiration but the multi-year highs in EUR will continue to hurt Europe’s exporters means he’ll have to try sometime to jawbone it down.

 

Draghi starts off on a less than cheerful, quite defaltionary, note:

• DRAGHI: EURO AREA MAY FACE PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOW INFLATION
• DRAGHI SAYS EURO AREA GROWTH RISKS REMAIN `ON THE DOWNSIDE
• DRAGHI SAYS POLICY TO REMAIN ACCOMMODATIVE AS LONG AS NEEDED
• DRAGHI SAYS UNDERLYING PRICE PRESSURES TO REMAIN SUBDUED
• DRAGHI SAYS MONETARY, CREDIT DYNAMICS REMAIN SUBDUED
• DRAGHI SAYS UNEMPLOYMENT REMAINS HIGH
• DRAGHI SEES DOWNSIDE RISKS TO ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
• DRAGHI SAYS BALANCE-SHEET ADJUSTMENTS WILL WEIGH ON ACTIVITY
• DRAGHI: COMMODITY PRICES, SLOW REFORMS ALSO DOWNSIDE RISKS

The EURUSD, after it was sent higher before the conference by momentum ignition algos, did not like these statements:

And some more upbeat assessments:

• DRAGHI SAYS POLICY STANCE TO SUPPORT GRADUAL ECONOMIC RECOVERY
• DRAGHI SAYS INFLATION WILL RISE GRADUALLY THEREAFTER
• DRAGHI SAYS HIGHER COMMODITY PRICES ARE UPSIDE INFLATION RISK
• DRAGHI SAYS RISKS TO INFLATION BROADLY BALANCED
• DRAGHI: INFLATION SEEN AROUND CURRENT LEVELS IN COMING MONTHS
• DRAGHI SAYS LATEST INFLATION DATA BROADLY AS EXPECTED
• DRAGHI SAYS REAL INCOMES BENEFIT FROM LOWER ENERGY PRICES
• DRAGHI SAYS HIGHER COMMODITY PRICES ARE UPSIDE INFLATION RISK

Better have something good in the Q&A or else Draghi may rapidly become Trichet.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/UOmIQgn19R4/story01.htm Tyler Durden

It looks like Time just hinted at who its man, er woman, of 2014 will be with its just released cover showcasing Janet Yellen “The Sixteen Trillion Dollar Woman” which wraps her first interview since being confirmed as Fed chair.

Highlights from the interview:

• Yellen on the American economy: “I think we’ll see stronger growth this year. Most of my colleagues on the Fed’s policy-making committee and I are hopeful that the first digit [of GDP growth] could be 3 rather than 2…. The recovery has been frustratingly slow, but we’re making progress in getting people back to work, and I anticipate that inflation will move back toward our longer-run goal of 2 percent.” On the housing market, which had a brief lull this fall: “I expect it to pick back up and I do expect a further recovery.”
• On the Fed’s QE program: “You know, a lot of people say this [asset buying] is just helping rich people. But it’s not true. Our policy is aimed at holding down long-term interest rates, which supports the recovery by encouraging spending. And part of the [economic stimulus] comes through higher house and stock prices, which causes people with homes and stocks to spend more, which causes jobs to be created throughout the economy and income to go up throughout the economy.”
• On banking reform: “I felt that the Fed had always been the agency that picked up the pieces when there was a financial crisis, and it was invented to do exactly that. But we never had as active a program to attempt to assess threats to financial stability as was called for…. I think Dodd-Frank is a good road map and lays out most of the steps that are necessary. But we may also need to take some further steps that have not been taken yet.”
• On her overall philosophy: “[The job] isn’t just about fighting inflation or monitoring the financial system. It’s about trying to help ordinary households get back on their feet and about creating a labor market where people can feel secure and work and get ahead.”
• On her career epiphany at Brown University: “I was interested in math, and I think very logically, and I remember sitting in that class and learning about how there were policy decisions that could have been taken during the Great Depression to alleviate all that human suffering – that was a real ‘ah-ha’ moment for me. I realized that public policy can, and should, address these problems.”
• TIME’s Rana Foroohar writes: “At the end of the day, Janet Yellen, the commander in chief of the everyday economy, will judge herself not by the views of Wall Street but by the health of Main Street…. A rising tide can lift all boats. That’s a phrase that’s been associated with conservatives in recent years, but it’s worth remembering that Kennedy said it first—and Yellen still believes it.”

Read the full interview here.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/_SY-yJD5fGs/story01.htm Tyler Durden

It looks like Time just hinted at who its man, er woman, of 2014 will be with its just released cover showcasing Janet Yellen “The Sixteen Trillion Dollar Woman” which wraps her first interview since being confirmed as Fed chair.

Highlights from the interview:

• Yellen on the American economy: “I think we’ll see stronger growth this year. Most of my colleagues on the Fed’s policy-making committee and I are hopeful that the first digit [of GDP growth] could be 3 rather than 2…. The recovery has been frustratingly slow, but we’re making progress in getting people back to work, and I anticipate that inflation will move back toward our longer-run goal of 2 percent.” On the housing market, which had a brief lull this fall: “I expect it to pick back up and I do expect a further recovery.”
• On the Fed’s QE program: “You know, a lot of people say this [asset buying] is just helping rich people. But it’s not true. Our policy is aimed at holding down long-term interest rates, which supports the recovery by encouraging spending. And part of the [economic stimulus] comes through higher house and stock prices, which causes people with homes and stocks to spend more, which causes jobs to be created throughout the economy and income to go up throughout the economy.”
• On banking reform: “I felt that the Fed had always been the agency that picked up the pieces when there was a financial crisis, and it was invented to do exactly that. But we never had as active a program to attempt to assess threats to financial stability as was called for…. I think Dodd-Frank is a good road map and lays out most of the steps that are necessary. But we may also need to take some further steps that have not been taken yet.”
• On her overall philosophy: “[The job] isn’t just about fighting inflation or monitoring the financial system. It’s about trying to help ordinary households get back on their feet and about creating a labor market where people can feel secure and work and get ahead.”
• On her career epiphany at Brown University: “I was interested in math, and I think very logically, and I remember sitting in that class and learning about how there were policy decisions that could have been taken during the Great Depression to alleviate all that human suffering – that was a real ‘ah-ha’ moment for me. I realized that public policy can, and should, address these problems.”
• TIME’s Rana Foroohar writes: “At the end of the day, Janet Yellen, the commander in chief of the everyday economy, will judge herself not by the views of Wall Street but by the health of Main Street…. A rising tide can lift all boats. That’s a phrase that’s been associated with conservatives in recent years, but it’s worth remembering that Kennedy said it first—and Yellen still believes it.”

Read the full interview here.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/_SY-yJD5fGs/story01.htm Tyler Durden

The nation may be slowly thawing from its deep freeze “polar vortex”, but that is no comfort for tens of thousands of Ohians, whose water supply has literally frozen in the past day after the valves at the Avon Lake Municipal Utility plant were planted in ice, dramatically lowering the supply of water. NBC reports that “tens of thousands of customers in several counties in Ohio are facing a dramatic water shortage after the intake valves at a key plant that draws water from Lake Erie apparently froze amid the wild winter weather.” As a result, the mayor of Avon had a modest proposal as a response to the caticestrophy: don’t flush your toilets. At least there is toilet paper, which is more than Venezuela, and its 480% returning in 2013 stock market can say.

From NBC:

Officials at Avon Lake Municipal Utilities west of Cleveland said Wednesday that the valves at the plant are caked in ice. Although they are still able to draw water, the rate is below typical demands — which means several surrounding cities could be hit by a veritable drought.

 

In a message on the city of Avon’s official website, officials called on residents to hold off on doing anything that uses a lot of water.

 

Avon Mayor Bryan Jensen sent out an emergency messages to locals asking them to hold off on laundry, baths and showers, according to Cleveland.com.

 

“We even ask people to refrain from flushing toilets as often as they used to until this can be resolved,” Jensen said.

 

The plant website said it provides water to over 200,000 people living in a 680-square-mile area made up of seven counties — including Lorain, Cuyahoga, Medina, Erie, Huron, Ashland and Wayne.

And in other polar vortex news, the Niagara Falls has frozen.

 

The polar vortex which affected large swathes of the US is expected to calm off this weekend (Picture: REUTERS/Aaron Harris)

 

The Rainbow Bridge connects the US side of Niagara Falls to the Canadian side (Picture: REUTERS/Aaron Harris)

 

Over 20million people visit Niagara each year (Picture: REUTERS/Aaron Harris)

 

Ice chunks flow over the Niagara into its gorge (Picture: REUTERS/Aaron Harris)

 

Visitors brave the cold to take a look at the beautiful sight (Picture: REUTERS/Aaron Harris)

 

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/YS8MSdNVSkA/story01.htm Tyler Durden

The nation may be slowly thawing from its deep freeze “polar vortex”, but that is no comfort for tens of thousands of Ohians, whose water supply has literally frozen in the past day after the valves at the Avon Lake Municipal Utility plant were planted in ice, dramatically lowering the supply of water. NBC reports that “tens of thousands of customers in several counties in Ohio are facing a dramatic water shortage after the intake valves at a key plant that draws water from Lake Erie apparently froze amid the wild winter weather.” As a result, the mayor of Avon had a modest proposal as a response to the caticestrophy: don’t flush your toilets. At least there is toilet paper, which is more than Venezuela, and its 480% returning in 2013 stock market can say.

From NBC:

Officials at Avon Lake Municipal Utilities west of Cleveland said Wednesday that the valves at the plant are caked in ice. Although they are still able to draw water, the rate is below typical demands — which means several surrounding cities could be hit by a veritable drought.

 

In a message on the city of Avon’s official website, officials called on residents to hold off on doing anything that uses a lot of water.

 

Avon Mayor Bryan Jensen sent out an emergency messages to locals asking them to hold off on laundry, baths and showers, according to Cleveland.com.

 

“We even ask people to refrain from flushing toilets as often as they used to until this can be resolved,” Jensen said.

 

The plant website said it provides water to over 200,000 people living in a 680-square-mile area made up of seven counties — including Lorain, Cuyahoga, Medina, Erie, Huron, Ashland and Wayne.

And in other polar vortex news, the Niagara Falls has frozen.

 

The polar vortex which affected large swathes of the US is expected to calm off this weekend (Picture: REUTERS/Aaron Harris)

 

The Rainbow Bridge connects the US side of Niagara Falls to the Canadian side (Picture: REUTERS/Aaron Harris)

 

Over 20million people visit Niagara each year (Picture: REUTERS/Aaron Harris)

 

Ice chunks flow over the Niagara into its gorge (Picture: REUTERS/Aaron Harris)

 

Visitors brave the cold to take a look at the beautiful sight (Picture: REUTERS/Aaron Harris)

 

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/YS8MSdNVSkA/story01.htm Tyler Durden

As was broadly expected, and contrary to November’s surprising announcement, the ECB kept its rates unchanged.

9 January 2014 – Monetary policy decisions

 

At today’s meeting the Governing Council of the ECB decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.25%, 0.75% and 0.00% respectively.

 

The President of the ECB will comment on the considerations underlying these decisions at a press conference starting at 2.30 p.m. CET today.

No response in the EURUSD. In 45 minutes Mario Draghi will explain just how he plans on reviving Europe’s moribund and record low loan creation.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/1FlkKq9u4hc/story01.htm Tyler Durden