Guest Post: What’s Real? What’s Fake?

Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog,

Is the unemployment rate real or fake? It is obviously fake, but we want to believe the fake is real for a variety of reasons.

We like to think we know the difference between what's real and what's fake. When we're fooled by a fake Rolex watch purchased for $20 on some humid Asian street corner, we shrug it off: it's no big deal because the fake isn't harming anyone.

And when it's difficult to discern the fake from the legitimate, as in fine art paintings and financial policy, we rely on experts to differentiate between the two.

But what if the "experts" are as clueless as the rest of us? What if they've been corrupted by easy money to authenticate the fake as legitimate? Consider ObamaCare, an extraordinarily complex policy that "experts" assure us is a phenomenal advancement that is "working well."

But what if ObamaCare is a fake? What if it is really not insurance at all, but a giant skimming machine designed to enrich and solidify the power of the state-cartel that operates the sickcare system?

"Experts" (PhDs and Federal Reserve economists) assure us our financial system is the core engine of "growth" in our economy. But what if this assertion is simply a useful illusion, and the reality is that the U.S. financial system is a giant skimming operation that harvests immense profits off the real economy to the benefit of the few, the financial cartels and their lapdogs in the Central State?

"Experts" in the Federal government assure us the unemployment rate is 7%. But if we include the 91.5 million people of working age who could be working (and would be working in a work-fare economy), then the real unemployment rate is double the official rate: 14% or even higher.

Is the unemployment rate real or fake? It is obviously fake, but we want to believe the fake is real for a variety of reasons.

The 1974 Orson Welles documentary (recommended by correspondent K.K.) F For Fake helps elucidate this peculiar dynamic of human nature.

The master art forger who plays a central role in F For Fake noted (self-servingly, but amusingly so) that his addition of a few fake Modigliani paintings into the world's collections did no damage to Modigliani (long since deceased) or the collectors, who benefited from the opportunity buy a Modigliani masterpiece.

We want to believe the fake unemployment rate of 7% rather than the real rate of 14+% because the officially sanctioned forgery feeds our belief that our bloated, corrupt Empire of Debt is sustainable, fair and working well. To accept that we've been bamboozled, ripped off, taken advantage of and ultimately cheated out of an authentic economy and life by swindlers is too painful.

How is the Federal Reserve's creation of money out of thin air not officially sanctioned forgery, a forgery we accept because we are like the collectors who are willing to buy forgeries as masterpieces, as long as they're good forgeries, rather than forego the joy of owning a masterpiece?

Just as the belief in the provenance of a masterpiece creates its value in the marketplace, so it is with money: if it is created by a central bank and ultimately backed by the State's right to tax its citizenry, we consider it legitimate, even though it is clearly an intrinsically worthless forgery of real value (i.e. gold, silver, land, cans of beans, machine tools, etc.).

And just as the value of a masterpiece is shattered by the loss of faith in its value, so it is with money: should the belief that creates the value fade, so to will the practical utility of the money.

Any doubts about the value of the euro, yuan, yen or dollar are dismissed by the mainstream as the confused ravings of a lunatic fringe, because maintaining the faith in the provenance of paper money is essential to the power created by financial engineering. But it's worth keeping in mind that this belief in the value of money created out of thin air by the conjurer's wand is just that, a belief.


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/TjwQo3RYZEY/story01.htm Tyler Durden

VIX Up & Stocks Up As 3rd Hindenburg Omen Appears

While stocks clung to overnight ramp gains, tensions were clear under the surface. Managers sought protection as spot VIX trended higher (closing over 16%); JPY crosses were not buying into (or supporting) the equity bounce (off the S&P's 50DMA), credit markets remained unimpressed, Treasuries closed practically unchanged (30Y was worst +2bps), gold and silver were bid, and another Hindenburg was spotted. The previous two "clusters" of Hindenburg Omens produced meaningful corrections in the US equity market (albeit dips that were rapidly bought). While ominous in its wording, the features that cause an Omen are all about market confusion with highs, lows, advancers, decliners, and momentum all signaling opposing (and mixed) views. With this week's FOMC meeting likely to resolve in significant volatility one way or the other, it is perhaps not surprising that the 3rd H.O. has just been spotted.

 

S&P futures tested perfectly to their 50DMA overnight (making the biggest 4-day high to low drop in 5 months) before bouncing back handsomely…

 

The omens are clustering…

 

JPY carry was not buying it…

 

And VIX was bid – suggesting hedges were in demand…

 

Gold and silver were well bid after POMO ended…

 

Charts: Bloomberg


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/270JRXP3B0I/story01.htm Tyler Durden

VIX Up & Stocks Up As 3rd Hindenburg Omen Appears

While stocks clung to overnight ramp gains, tensions were clear under the surface. Managers sought protection as spot VIX trended higher (closing over 16%); JPY crosses were not buying into (or supporting) the equity bounce (off the S&P's 50DMA), credit markets remained unimpressed, Treasuries closed practically unchanged (30Y was worst +2bps), gold and silver were bid, and another Hindenburg was spotted. The previous two "clusters" of Hindenburg Omens produced meaningful corrections in the US equity market (albeit dips that were rapidly bought). While ominous in its wording, the features that cause an Omen are all about market confusion with highs, lows, advancers, decliners, and momentum all signaling opposing (and mixed) views. With this week's FOMC meeting likely to resolve in significant volatility one way or the other, it is perhaps not surprising that the 3rd H.O. has just been spotted.

 

S&P futures tested perfectly to their 50DMA overnight (making the biggest 4-day high to low drop in 5 months) before bouncing back handsomely…

 

The omens are clustering…

 

JPY carry was not buying it…

 

And VIX was bid – suggesting hedges were in demand…

 

Gold and silver were well bid after POMO ended…

 

Charts: Bloomberg


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/270JRXP3B0I/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Bitcoin Banged Into Bear Market (Again) As Precious Metals Rise

With no clear news driver, Bitcoin prices have dropped over 20% from their overnight highs – trading at around $715 now. Perhaps most notable is the relationship between Bitcoin and the precious metals today with the early Bitcoin weakness corresponding almost perfectly to gold and silver strength (and again mid-morning in the US).

 


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/8cXyDVx7OpQ/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Ackman's Year Of Living Dangerously Get Worse – The Herbalife Timeline (Audit Complete With No Material Changes)

UPDATE: Herbalife is halted for the following news:

  • HERBALIFE COMPLETES RE-AUDIT FOR FISCAL '10 '11, '12
  • HERBALIFE NO MATERIAL CHANGES TO 2010, 2011 OR 2012 FINL

Which opens the doors for the substantial buyback they have planned. We suspect one can hear a pin drop in Pershing Square's headquarters.

Via Reuters,

Today, the Company filed an amended 10-K/A for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2012, following the completed re-audit of the Company's 2010, 2011 and 2012 financial statements. Additionally, the Company today filed amended 10-Q/As for each of these quarters of 2013 following the completion of SAS 100 reviews of those periods by PwC. With these amended filings, the Company is now up to date with its SEC periodic filings.

 

There were no material changes to the Company's audited 2010, 2011 or 2012 financial statements included in the amended 10-K/A or to the Company's first, second or third quarter 2013 financial statements included in the amended 10-Q/As as compared with the Company's previously filed financial statements for and as of each of such periods(1).

 

As previously announced, the change in the Company's independent auditors to PwC, and the corresponding need to perform re-audits, was the result of the resignation of Herbalife's former independent auditor, KPMG LLP ("KPMG") due to the impairment of KPMG's independence resulting from its now former partner's unlawful activities. As previously publicly stated by KPMG, their resignation was not related to Herbalife's financial statements, its accounting practices, the integrity of Herbalife's management, or any other reason.

 

Herbalife has re-opened up 9% over $75 on very heavy volume – It seems Ackman's "end of the earth" bet may take a little longer…

 

This week marks the one-year anniversary of Bill Ackman’s 342-page slide presentation at the Ira Sohn Conference in NYC.  At that time he publicly disclosed his $1 billion short bet against Herbalife (HLF), accusing the company of being a pyramid scheme and claiming its stock was destined to fall to zero once regulators stepped in.  As everyone knows, HLF shares plummeted, losing nearly half their value in the three days after the presentation.  The market’s initial response did not last, and HLF is up about 160% since its 12/21/12 low of $26.06 (vs S&P 500 +24%)Pershing Square’s public campaign has taken many forms, as Barclays outlines below…

Via Barclays,

…including additional 300+ page conference presentations, the sending of a long letter to HLF’s new auditor PWC, and repeated lobbying efforts directed towards U.S. regulators, elected officials and community activists.  Subsequent presentations by Ackman have had little impact on the stock price, and no formal regulatory action (or indication of such) has taken place. 

More recently, press reports suggest that HLF decided to get more aggressive in late Sept. after shares topped $70, hiring a well-connected strategic advisor (which specializes in shareholder activism) to approach Pershing Square investors and highlight the risks associated with the fund’s outsized exposure to the HFL short, a position which has trended quite negatively since inflecting in April. 

Numerous major investors, such as Carl Icahn, Dan Loeb, George Soros, Kyle Bass and Stan Druckenmiller, have publically disagreed with Ackman and invested heavily in HLF. Bill Stiritz, a well-regarded private investor in consumer businesses, has also announced a substantial investment.  We summarize their stakes below. 

We also note that we have not identified further venues for Mr. Ackman to speak and that the next Ira Sohn Conference in NYC will not be held until May 2014.


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/8FWXPJj8JVs/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Ackman’s Year Of Living Dangerously Get Worse – The Herbalife Timeline (Audit Complete With No Material Changes)

UPDATE: Herbalife is halted for the following news:

  • HERBALIFE COMPLETES RE-AUDIT FOR FISCAL '10 '11, '12
  • HERBALIFE NO MATERIAL CHANGES TO 2010, 2011 OR 2012 FINL

Which opens the doors for the substantial buyback they have planned. We suspect one can hear a pin drop in Pershing Square's headquarters.

Via Reuters,

Today, the Company filed an amended 10-K/A for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2012, following the completed re-audit of the Company's 2010, 2011 and 2012 financial statements. Additionally, the Company today filed amended 10-Q/As for each of these quarters of 2013 following the completion of SAS 100 reviews of those periods by PwC. With these amended filings, the Company is now up to date with its SEC periodic filings.

 

There were no material changes to the Company's audited 2010, 2011 or 2012 financial statements included in the amended 10-K/A or to the Company's first, second or third quarter 2013 financial statements included in the amended 10-Q/As as compared with the Company's previously filed financial statements for and as of each of such periods(1).

 

As previously announced, the change in the Company's independent auditors to PwC, and the corresponding need to perform re-audits, was the result of the resignation of Herbalife's former independent auditor, KPMG LLP ("KPMG") due to the impairment of KPMG's independence resulting from its now former partner's unlawful activities. As previously publicly stated by KPMG, their resignation was not related to Herbalife's financial statements, its accounting practices, the integrity of Herbalife's management, or any other reason.

 

Herbalife has re-opened up 9% over $75 on very heavy volume – It seems Ackman's "end of the earth" bet may take a little longer…

 

This week marks the one-year anniversary of Bill Ackman’s 342-page slide presentation at the Ira Sohn Conference in NYC.  At that time he publicly disclosed his $1 billion short bet against Herbalife (HLF), accusing the company of being a pyramid scheme and claiming its stock was destined to fall to zero once regulators stepped in.  As everyone knows, HLF shares plummeted, losing nearly half their value in the three days after the presentation.  The market’s initial response did not last, and HLF is up about 160% since its 12/21/12 low of $26.06 (vs S&P 500 +24%)Pershing Square’s public campaign has taken many forms, as Barclays outlines below…

Via Barclays,

…including additional 300+ page conference presentations, the sending of a long letter to HLF’s new auditor PWC, and repeated lobbying efforts directed towards U.S. regulators, elected officials and community activists.  Subsequent presentations by Ackman have had little impact on the stock price, and no formal regulatory action (or indication of such) has taken place. 

More recently, press reports suggest that HLF decided to get more aggressive in late Sept. after shares topped $70, hiring a well-connected strategic advisor (which specializes in shareholder activism) to approach Pershing Square investors and highlight the risks associated with the fund’s outsized exposure to the HFL short, a position which has trended quite negatively since inflecting in April. 

Numerous major investors, such as Carl Icahn, Dan Loeb, George Soros, Kyle Bass and Stan Druckenmiller, have publically disagreed with Ackman and invested heavily in HLF. Bill Stiritz, a well-regarded private investor in consumer businesses, has also announced a substantial investment.  We summarize their stakes below. 

We also note that we have not identified further venues for Mr. Ackman to speak and that the next Ira Sohn Conference in NYC will not be held until May 2014.


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/8FWXPJj8JVs/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Guest Post: Krugman Blowing Bubbles

Submitted by James E. Miller of the Ludwig von Mises Institute of Canada,

The perennial question of modern economics is simple: how are market downturns best combated? It’s a good question, if you are trying to deduce truth in matters. It also makes for good fodder to appease career-granting benefactors, i.e. the government. It was not always this way however. Economists, if true to their craft, do not make for barrels of optimism. They are supposed to be a splash of cold water on wishful thinkers.

The unholy alliance between the state and the economic profession would never last if dismal science practitioners were gadflies who swatted down every harebrained scheme that festered in the dreams of central planners. This was one of the problems encountered by classical economists. Being market-friendly, it was tough appealing to monarchs or government leaders who wanted a quick fix to economic doldrums. No head of the public wants to tell his citizens, “Sorry, I cannot help you today. You must help yourself.”

Eventually John Maynard Keynes would come along and give the economic vocation the crony justification it needed to become respectable in the eyes of the state. His The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money was a how-to guide for pols looking to spend other people’s money. At last they had an excuse: to boost unemployment by paying laid-off workers to dig holes aimlessly.

Our friend Paul Krugman is Keynes’s most vocal disciple, and never tires of reinvoking his intellectual master’s teachings of mo’ money, mo’ debt, and no mo’ problems. In a recent interview with the forever exhausted-looking Joe Weisenthal of Business Insider, Kruggy is perplexed by the Federal Reserve’s inability to inflate out of the ongoing economic slowdown. He snakes out a position between naysayer Larry Summers, who thinks the economy can only grow with artificial bubbles, and someone who is more optimistic about the future. On necessary bubbles, Krugman tells us:

“If we look at the evidence…and it kind of looks like…we need bubbles to grow. We’ve had one bubble after another. Long-term rise in debt, with no inflation…the economy is looking like it’s just barely managing to keep its above water with all those bubbles so…that’s the observation.”

Krugman blames the news status quo on slowing technological innovation and lower population growth. As for the United States, the Nobel Laureate is convinced the trade deficit is largely at fault. Lastly, he concedes that no one really knows why the economy must be goosed by a shot of exuberance.

That’s all true, if you forget the fact that some folks do actually understand why Krugman and his like-minded colleagues are scratching their heads over bubbles.

That the past few decades have witnessed financial bubble after financial bubble is not proof positive of a great need for them. Krugman’s assumption is that had the Fed not interfered in the marketplace to boost particular assets, the whole economy would have imploded. It’s a false assumption, but totally in line with Keynesian theory.

From the stagflation in the late 1970s to the stock market crash of 1987, forward to the failure of Long Term Capital Management in 1998, the popping of the dot-com bubble years later, and finally culminating in the housing crisis of 2007-2008, Krugman and Summers appear to have a point. All of these cases of faux prosperity were caused by the Fed’s meddling with the money supply, pushing interest rates down below their natural level. The headache after each instance was cured with the hair of the dog – meaning more inflation, more stimulus, and more central bank liquidity. The roller coaster ride of money printing has left the economy distorted and unable to find true balance again.

For the life of him, Krugman can’t seem to find any evidence of market stability without the animal spirits being thrown a liquidity bone. And yet, his go-to example of angelic prosperity – the 1950s – has all the markings of a relatively calm period of prosperity absent of central bank interference. As former Office of Management and Budget Director David Stockman points out, the heads of the Federal Reserve following World War II were less-than-enthusiastic about ginning up growth via the printing press. This was when William McChesney Martin was at the helm and President Eisenhower was reluctant to keep up the hog wild spending of his predecessor. In an interview with the American Mises Institute, Stockman comments:

Although central banking does cause moral hazards and lends itself to abuses, there have been periods in which monetary and fiscal discipline have been employed. Fed Chairman William McChesney Martin, for example, really did take the punch bowl away when the party got started because he took monetary discipline seriously. Fiscal discipline under Eisenhower and the gold standard behind Bretton Woods helped put off the day of reckoning for quite a long time.

After wartime price controls were relaxed in the late 1940s, capitalists and private investors were freed of government burden and began investing in the country yet again. Washington’s budget was cut significantly, including hundreds of billions removed from the Pentagon’s death machine expenditures. Stockman brings attention to the data: “Between 1954 and 1963, real GDP growth averaged 3.4 percent while annual CPI inflation remained subdued at 1.4 percent.”

So yes, this was the non-bubble prosperity Krugman is looking for. As Justin Raimondo writes, “[E]ight years of relative fiscal sanity under the Eisenhower presidency ushered in the greatest economic expansion in modern times.” What’s funny is that Krugman is one of the biggest cheerleaders of post-war prosperity and continually advocates going back to the Ike-era. But he wrongly attributes the golden times to pro-union labor policies and high rates of taxation.

Regardless, the takeaway from the decade of General Motors, Elvis, decent manners, and the Red threat is bubbles are not necessary for economic growth. By trying to stimulate demand, the Fed only mucks up economic calculation and capital accumulation.

Krugman’s solutions for the bubble-addicted economy are no better than his own understanding of economic theory. Widespread unemployment can be cured, in his opinion, by weaker purchasing power, a stronger welfare state, and continual government spending. In other words, by top-down central planning that attempts to tweak society “just so.” All these efforts are nothing but a shell game that take money from some and give it to another. Basically, Krugman is King
Solomon with a sword, cutting everyone into parts he sees most fit.

Saying we need continuous financial bubbles to keep full employment is such a flawed conception of economics, it belongs on an island of misfit philosophies. Krugman’s incessant promotion of statism is doing more harm to the economy than good. As an opinion-molder, he is perpetuating the economic malaise of the last few years. More bubbles won’t help the recovery, just harm it more. In the middle of a grease fire, Krugman calls for more pig fat. And the rest of us are the ones left burnt.


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/TLi56PTVgyE/story01.htm Tyler Durden

CNN and Huffington Post Are “External Stakeholders” In Nuclear Regulatory Commission

Painting by Anthony Freda: www.AnthonyFreda.com

Presstitute Media Shills for Nuclear Power

It is well-documented that the claim that nuclear power is a low-carbon source of energy is mere propaganda.

The archaic nuclear reactor design used at Fukushima and in most reactors in the United States and throughout the world was chosen solely because it helps to make nuclear bombs.

Our health has been sacrificed – and the dangers of radiation covered up – for 68 years … for the sake of nuclear weapons.

The mainstream media – and gatekeeper “alternative” media – are pro-war. They may occasionally criticize one tiny aspect of the war-fighting machinery, but never the overall war effort.

As such, it should not be entirely surprising that the Nuclear Regulatory Commission lists CNN and Huffington Post as “external stakeholders” in the NRC.

As EneNews reports:

Independent Evaluation of NRC’s Use and Security of Social Media, Office of the Inspector General, Jan. 2013:

Social Media Evaluation Interview List [Appendix VI, pg. 82]

  • Internal Stakeholders (NRC staff) […]
  • External Stakeholders (Press) Energy Editor, AOL, Huffington Post — Nuclear Writer, Huffington Post — Producer, CNN News
  • External Stakeholders (Digital Influencers) Blogger, Atomic Power Review — Blogger, Idaho Samizdat: Nuke Notes — Blogger, Yes Vermont Yankee
  • External Stakeholders (Nuclear Industry) […] Senior Manager for Social — Media, Nuclear Energy Institute […]
  • External Stakeholders (US Government and US Senate Staff) US-CERT Representative, United States Computer Emergency Readiness Team — Policy Director, US Senate ….

Excerpts from the evaluation:

  • As part of the press, I have to be able to quickly communicate a lot of technical information into something our readers will grasp. But it helps if NRC had strong info graphics or a section that provided a breakdown of technical info so I can understand the translation from its source. — Huffington Post
  • NRC‘s materials are very basic and not very viral. Other agencies do a better job of including information graphics, photos, even clickable links. There‘s no extra. It‘s not influential. — Managing Editor, Huffington Post
  • One producer from Cable News Network (CNN) suggested that what was currently offered on Flickr does not compel him to return and urged NRC to provide more content that did not involve people in a conference room or of the chairperson speaking from a podium.

Read the report here (pdf)

 

See also: Paper: CNN’s nuclear propaganda film “is dishonest to its core” — It’s “actually an infomercial”

Remember, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission is a pro-industry group which is largely funded by the nuclear companies. (This is true of all nuclear agencies).

The nuclear industry in Japan – and elsewhere – spends more on pr than on safety measures.  Indeed, nuclear power is a form of crony capitalism, where taxpayers fund a market which would not even exist in a free market.

The presstitute media once again shills for the powers-that-be.

 

Bonus: 

Federal Judge Strikes Down NSA’s Bulk Metadata Program: “I Cannot Imagine a More ‘Indiscriminate’ and ‘Arbitrary Invasion’ Than This Systematic and High-Tech Collection and Retention of Personal Data On Virtually Every Single Citizen”


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/Uh8m4RMjo6g/story01.htm George Washington

Chart Of The Day: This Is What "Generational Theft" Looks Like

Much has been said about the key aspect of the Ponzi scheme behind America’s welfare state (if not enough where it matters as the three living Fed Chairmen currently joke around during the Fed’s shindig on the central bank’s 100th anniversary), namely that all those who have paid in money to entitlements, are entitled to benefit from entitlement distributions in the future. On paper this is absolutely correct, and in an efficient market, without capital allocation distortions this would work (ignoring that a Ponzi scheme, is, by definition, a Ponzi scheme and is reliant on ever greater inflows of money and participants or, as some may call them, suckers). More importantly, this is also fair. Sadly, as recent experiments within the Obama administration and elsewhere, most notably France, when the entire developed world has hit “peak debt” levels, the fairness doctrine no longer works, especially if and when it is enforced upon a destitute population.

Since we don’t live in a paper world, one should be able to quantify the disparity between the “haves” and the “have nots” when it comes to entitlements. This is precisely what Larry Kotlikoff did in August 2013 in “How the millennial generation will pay the price of Washington’s paralysis.” The results, charted, show what JPM’s Michael Cembalest has dubbed, accurately, “generational theft”, or the difference between how much excess some Americans will have received in government benefits (the older ones), compared to how great the funding deficit is for others – mostly young Americans, those who are about to graduated from college with record amounts of student loans (on average) and those yet unborn.

Cembalest’s summary:

After you graduate, the US will be in the thick of the “generational theft” issue; here’s a heads-up on what this is all about. Generational accounting is an estimate of who benefits from and who pays for government programs. As shown in the first chart, the average person in the generation that turned 65 this year received $327 thousand dollars more in lifetime government benefits than they paid in Federal taxes. On the other hand, children born in the future (e.g., yours) will have a lifetime deficit on this basis of -$421 thousand dollars. If it sounds unfair, it is.

It seems that these days few things are fair. Which is perhaps why the rulers are desperate to do everything in their power to “enforce” their idea of fairness on everyone.


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/Py5kDOp_wRI/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Chart Of The Day: This Is What “Generational Theft” Looks Like

Much has been said about the key aspect of the Ponzi scheme behind America’s welfare state (if not enough where it matters as the three living Fed Chairmen currently joke around during the Fed’s shindig on the central bank’s 100th anniversary), namely that all those who have paid in money to entitlements, are entitled to benefit from entitlement distributions in the future. On paper this is absolutely correct, and in an efficient market, without capital allocation distortions this would work (ignoring that a Ponzi scheme, is, by definition, a Ponzi scheme and is reliant on ever greater inflows of money and participants or, as some may call them, suckers). More importantly, this is also fair. Sadly, as recent experiments within the Obama administration and elsewhere, most notably France, when the entire developed world has hit “peak debt” levels, the fairness doctrine no longer works, especially if and when it is enforced upon a destitute population.

Since we don’t live in a paper world, one should be able to quantify the disparity between the “haves” and the “have nots” when it comes to entitlements. This is precisely what Larry Kotlikoff did in August 2013 in “How the millennial generation will pay the price of Washington’s paralysis.” The results, charted, show what JPM’s Michael Cembalest has dubbed, accurately, “generational theft”, or the difference between how much excess some Americans will have received in government benefits (the older ones), compared to how great the funding deficit is for others – mostly young Americans, those who are about to graduated from college with record amounts of student loans (on average) and those yet unborn.

Cembalest’s summary:

After you graduate, the US will be in the thick of the “generational theft” issue; here’s a heads-up on what this is all about. Generational accounting is an estimate of who benefits from and who pays for government programs. As shown in the first chart, the average person in the generation that turned 65 this year received $327 thousand dollars more in lifetime government benefits than they paid in Federal taxes. On the other hand, children born in the future (e.g., yours) will have a lifetime deficit on this basis of -$421 thousand dollars. If it sounds unfair, it is.

It seems that these days few things are fair. Which is perhaps why the rulers are desperate to do everything in their power to “enforce” their idea of fairness on everyone.


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/Py5kDOp_wRI/story01.htm Tyler Durden