Tag: finance

The last 2 years have seen the clearest indication of the health of Spain deteriorate at its fastest rate on record. In spite of constant reassurances from Rajoy et al. that recovery is here, as we noted here, it’s not just unemployment that is dogging Spain; and now – having risen at a stunning 25.8 percentage points in the last 2 years, as Reuters reports, Spain’s debt-to-GDP has hit 93.4% – the highest level in more than a century. Of course, we should not worry… Spain has reassured investors that sees the debt-to-GDP ratio peaking at 101% in 2015 and 2016, then it’s plain-sailing to nirvana.. (and do not contradict them!)

 

 

Chart: Bloomberg

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/yb_8r0ysahc/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Submitted by Michael Snyder of The Economic Collapse blog,

Some of the most respected prognosticators in the financial world are warning that what is coming in 2014 and beyond is going to shake America to the core.  Many of the quotes that you are about to read are from individuals that actually predicted the subprime mortgage meltdown and the financial crisis of 2008 ahead of time.  So they have a track record of being right.  Does that guarantee that they will be right about what is coming in 2014?  Of course not.  In fact, as you will see below, not all of them agree about exactly what is coming next.  But without a doubt, all of their forecasts are quite ominous.  The following are quotes from Harry Dent, Marc Faber, Gerald Celente, Mike Maloney, Jim Rogers and nine other respected economic experts about what they believe is coming in 2014 and beyond…

–Harry Dent, author of The Great Depression Ahead: "Our best long-term and intermediate cycles suggest another slowdown and stock crash accelerating between very early 2014 and early 2015, and possibly lasting well into 2015 or even 2016. The worst economic trends due to demographics will hit between 2014 and 2019. The U.S. economy is likely to suffer a minor or major crash by early 2015 and another between late 2017 and late 2019 or early 2020 at the latest."

–Marc Faber, editor and publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report: "You have to say that we are again in a massive financial bubble in bonds, in equities, in [other] asset prices that have gone up dramatically."

–Gerald Celente: "Any self-respecting adult that hears McConnell, Reid, Boehner, Ryan, one after another, and buys this baloney… they deserve what they get.

And as for the international scene… the whole thing is collapsing.

That’s our forecast.

We are saying that by the second quarter of 2014, we expect the bottom to fall out… or something to divert our attention as it falls out."

–Mike Maloney, host of Hidden Secrets of Money: "I think the crash of 2008 was just a speed bump on the way to the main event… the consequences are gonna be horrific… the rest of the decade will bring us the greatest financial calamity in history."

–Jim Rogers: "You saw what happened in 2008-2009, which was worse than the previous economic setback because the debt was so much higher. Well now the debt is staggeringly much higher, and so the next economic problem, whenever it happens and whatever causes it, is going to be worse than in the past, because we have these unbelievable levels of debt, and unbelievable levels of money printing all over the world. Be worried and get prepared. Now it [a collapse] may not happen until 2016 or something, I have no idea when it’s going to happen, but when it comes, be careful."

–Lindsey Williams: "There is going to be a global currency reset."

–CLSA's Russell Napier: "We are on the eve of a deflationary shock which will likely reduce equity valuations from very high to very low levels."

–Oaktree Capital's Howard Marks: "Certainly risk tolerance has been increasing of late; high returns on risky assets have encouraged more of the same; and the markets are becoming more heated. The bottom line varies from sector to sector, but I have no doubt that markets are riskier than at any other time since the depths of the crisis in late 2008 (for credit) or early 2009 (for equities), and they are becoming more so."

–Financial editor Jeff Berwick: "If they allow interest rates to rise, it will effectively make the U.S. government bankrupt and insolvent, and it would make the U.S. government collapse. . . . They are preparing for a major societal collapse.  It is obvious and it will happen, and it will be very scary and very dangerous."

–Michael Pento, founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies: "Disappointingly, it is much more probable that the government has brought us out of the Great Recession, only to set us up for the Greater Depression, which lies just on the other side of interest rate normalization."

–Boston University Economics Professor Laurence Kotlikoff: "Eventually somebody recognizes this and starts dumping the bonds, and interest rates go up, and inflation takes off, and were off to the races."

–Mexican Billionaire Hugo Salinas Price: "I think we are going to see a series of bankruptcies.  I think the rise in interest rates is the fatal sign which is going to ignite a derivatives crisis.   This is going to bring down the derivatives system (and the financial system).

There are (over) one quadrillion dollars of derivatives and most of them are related to interest rates.  The spiking of interest rates in the United States may set that off.  What is going to happen in the world is eventually we are going to come to a moment where there is going to be massive bankruptcies around the globe."

–Robert Shiller, one of the winners of the 2013 Nobel prize for economics: "I'm not sounding the alarm yet.  But in many countries the stock price l
evels are high, and in many real estate markets prices have risen sharply…that could end badly."

–David Stockman, former Director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Ronald Reagan: "We have a massive bubble everywhere, from Japan, to China, Europe, to the UK.  As a result of this, I think world financial markets are extremely dangerous, unstable, and subject to serious trouble and dislocation in the future."

And certainly there are already signs that the U.S. economy is slowing down as we head into the final weeks of 2013.  For example, on Thursday we learned that the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits increased by 68,000 last week to a disturbingly high total of 368,000.  That was the largest increase that we have seen in more than a year.

In addition, as I wrote about the other day, rail traffic is way down right now.  In fact, for the week ending November 30th, U.S. rail traffic was down 16.3 percent from the same week one year earlier.  That is a very important indicator that economic activity is getting slower.

And we continue to get more evidence that the middle class is being steadily eroded and that poverty in America is rapidly growing.  For example, a survey that was just released found that requests for food assistance and the level of homelessness have both risen significantly in major U.S. cities over the past year…

A survey of 25 American cities, including many of the nation's largest, showed yearly increases in food aid and homelessness.

 

The cities, located throughout 18 states, saw requests for emergency food aid rise by an average of seven percent compared with the previous period a year earlier, according to the US Conference of Mayors study, published Wednesday.

 

All but four cities reported an increase in demand for assistance between the period of September 2012 through August 2013.

Unfortunately, if the economic experts quoted above are correct, this is just the beginning of our problems.

The next wave of the economic collapse is rapidly approaching, and things are going to get much worse than this.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/FMJrr3rrcZQ/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Submitted by Michael Snyder of The Economic Collapse blog,

Some of the most respected prognosticators in the financial world are warning that what is coming in 2014 and beyond is going to shake America to the core.  Many of the quotes that you are about to read are from individuals that actually predicted the subprime mortgage meltdown and the financial crisis of 2008 ahead of time.  So they have a track record of being right.  Does that guarantee that they will be right about what is coming in 2014?  Of course not.  In fact, as you will see below, not all of them agree about exactly what is coming next.  But without a doubt, all of their forecasts are quite ominous.  The following are quotes from Harry Dent, Marc Faber, Gerald Celente, Mike Maloney, Jim Rogers and nine other respected economic experts about what they believe is coming in 2014 and beyond…

–Harry Dent, author of The Great Depression Ahead: "Our best long-term and intermediate cycles suggest another slowdown and stock crash accelerating between very early 2014 and early 2015, and possibly lasting well into 2015 or even 2016. The worst economic trends due to demographics will hit between 2014 and 2019. The U.S. economy is likely to suffer a minor or major crash by early 2015 and another between late 2017 and late 2019 or early 2020 at the latest."

–Marc Faber, editor and publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report: "You have to say that we are again in a massive financial bubble in bonds, in equities, in [other] asset prices that have gone up dramatically."

–Gerald Celente: "Any self-respecting adult that hears McConnell, Reid, Boehner, Ryan, one after another, and buys this baloney… they deserve what they get.

And as for the international scene… the whole thing is collapsing.

That’s our forecast.

We are saying that by the second quarter of 2014, we expect the bottom to fall out… or something to divert our attention as it falls out."

–Mike Maloney, host of Hidden Secrets of Money: "I think the crash of 2008 was just a speed bump on the way to the main event… the consequences are gonna be horrific… the rest of the decade will bring us the greatest financial calamity in history."

–Jim Rogers: "You saw what happened in 2008-2009, which was worse than the previous economic setback because the debt was so much higher. Well now the debt is staggeringly much higher, and so the next economic problem, whenever it happens and whatever causes it, is going to be worse than in the past, because we have these unbelievable levels of debt, and unbelievable levels of money printing all over the world. Be worried and get prepared. Now it [a collapse] may not happen until 2016 or something, I have no idea when it’s going to happen, but when it comes, be careful."

–Lindsey Williams: "There is going to be a global currency reset."

–CLSA's Russell Napier: "We are on the eve of a deflationary shock which will likely reduce equity valuations from very high to very low levels."

–Oaktree Capital's Howard Marks: "Certainly risk tolerance has been increasing of late; high returns on risky assets have encouraged more of the same; and the markets are becoming more heated. The bottom line varies from sector to sector, but I have no doubt that markets are riskier than at any other time since the depths of the crisis in late 2008 (for credit) or early 2009 (for equities), and they are becoming more so."

–Financial editor Jeff Berwick: "If they allow interest rates to rise, it will effectively make the U.S. government bankrupt and insolvent, and it would make the U.S. government collapse. . . . They are preparing for a major societal collapse.  It is obvious and it will happen, and it will be very scary and very dangerous."

–Michael Pento, founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies: "Disappointingly, it is much more probable that the government has brought us out of the Great Recession, only to set us up for the Greater Depression, which lies just on the other side of interest rate normalization."

–Boston University Economics Professor Laurence Kotlikoff: "Eventually somebody recognizes this and starts dumping the bonds, and interest rates go up, and inflation takes off, and were off to the races."

–Mexican Billionaire Hugo Salinas Price: "I think we are going to see a series of bankruptcies.  I think the rise in interest rates is the fatal sign which is going to ignite a derivatives crisis.   This is going to bring down the derivatives system (and the financial system).

There are (over) one quadrillion dollars of derivatives and most of them are related to interest rates.  The spiking of interest rates in the United States may set that off.  What is going to happen in the world is eventually we are going to come to a moment where there is going to be massive bankruptcies around the globe."

–Robert Shiller, one of the winners of the 2013 Nobel prize for economics: "I'm not sounding the alarm yet.  But in many countries the stock price levels are high, and in many real estate markets prices have risen sharply…that could end badly."

–David Stockman, former Director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Ronald Reagan: "We have a massive bubble everywhere, from Japan, to China, Europe, to the UK.  As a result of this, I think world financial markets are extremely dangerous, unstable, and subject to serious trouble and dislocation in the future."

And certainly there are already signs that the U.S. economy is slowing down as we head into the final weeks of 2013.  For example, on Thursday we learned that the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits increased by 68,000 last week to a disturbingly high total of 368,000.  That was the largest increase that we have seen in more than a year.

In addition, as I wrote about the other day, rail traffic is way down right now.  In fact, for the week ending November 30th, U.S. rail traffic was down 16.3 percent from the same week one year earlier.  That is a very important indicator that economic activity is getting slower.

And we continue to get more evidence that the middle class is being steadily eroded and that poverty in America is rapidly growing.  For example, a survey that was just released found that requests for food assistance and the level of homelessness have both risen significantly in major U.S. cities over the past year…

A survey of 25 American cities, including many of the nation's largest, showed yearly increases in food aid and homelessness.

 

The cities, located throughout 18 states, saw requests for emergency food aid rise by an average of seven percent compared with the previous period a year earlier, according to the US Conference of Mayors study, published Wednesday.

 

All but four cities reported an increase in demand for assistance between the period of September 2012 through August 2013.

Unfortunately, if the economic experts quoted above are correct, this is just the beginning of our problems.

The next wave of the economic collapse is rapidly approaching, and things are going to get much worse than this.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/FMJrr3rrcZQ/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Many investors argue that Gold has no intrinsic value. I disagree with this assessment as it does not consider the nature of the financial system.

 

Let’s compare Gold to the US Dollar.

 

Every asset in the financial system trades based on relative value. Ultimately, this value is denominated in US Dollars because the Dollar is the reserve currency of the world.

 

However, even the US Dollar itself trades based on relative value. Remember the Dollar is merely a sheet of linen and cotton that is printed by the Fed and is backed by the full faith and credit of the Unites States.

In this sense, the Dollar’s value is derived from the confidence investors that the US will honor its debts.

 

A second item to consider is the fact that the Dollar’s value today also derived from the Fed’s money printing. Indeed, a Dollar today, is worth only 5% of a Dollar’s value from the early 20^th century because the Fed has debased the currency.

 

As a result of this the world has adjusted to this change in relative “value” resulting in a Dollar buying less today than it did 100 years ago.

 

In this sense, Gold’s value is derived from investors’ faith in the Financial System (ultimately backstopped by the Dollar) and the Fed’s actions.

 

Gold also moves based on investors’ confidence in the system. If investors’ are afraid that the system is under duress (meaning that they have little confidence in the Dollar-based financial system) then they perceive Gold has having a higher value.

 

Similarly, if the Fed prints Dollars by the billions, Gold is perceived as having a higher value relative to the Dollar.

 

Thus, Gold does not have any less intrinsic value than the US Dollar does. In that regard we can price it relative to the Fed’s actions and to the fear of systemic risk to get an assessment of its true value.

 

As noted a moment ago, every asset in the financial system trades relative to investors’ confidence in that system. With the US Dollar as the reserve currency of the world, that confidence is ultimately based on the idea the US will pay you if it owes you money.

 

If you remove this confidence, then the entire system collapses as the reserve currency is no longer perceived has having value.

 

The problem with this setup however is that the US, like almost every other country in the world (I’m including China which is sporting a Debt to GDP ratio north of 200% if you account for its Shadow Banking liabilities), has made promises that it cannot possibly keep.

 

The US “officially” owes nearly $17 trillion in debt. However, if you include unfunded liabilities this amount surges to at least over $80 trillion and likely north of $100 trillion.

 

These are promises the US has made. And the US Dollar’s value is based on the belief that the US will honor these promises.

 

The US is not isolated in this regard. Indeed, the problem of unfunded liabilities exists throughout the world.

 

In the case of Europe, the situation is so bad that the average EU country would need to have an amount equal to over 400% of its GDP sitting in the bank, earning interest at the government’s borrowing rate, in order to fund its unfunded liabilities.

 

The same goes for Japan and even China where the shadow banking system has liabilities north of 200% of China’s GDP.

 

These are promises that cannot be kept. And when these promises are broken confidence in the system will be broken. This will inevitably lead to a period of currency collapse. After this, ultimately there will be a need to restore confidence in the system.

 

The only way to do this will be by backing currencies with Gold again (or a basket of items that includes Gold).

 

Given the limited amount of Gold in the world, (a little over 171,000 tons) and the enormous amount of US Dollars in the world, this would require a revaluation of Gold to north of $10,000. Dylan Grice formerly of Societe General lays this out beautifully in the below chart.

 

 

I cannot possibly predict when all of this would happen. All I can state with 100% certainty is that ALL fiat currencies throughout history have failed.

 

This failure has been based on a loss of confidence. And the only way to restore confidence is to limit the ability of Central Banks to print money.

 

This will inevitably lead to some form of a Gold backed currency. Gold has been used as currency for over 5,000 years. It will be considered currency again in the future. When it does, the price of Gold will be much higher (remember, Gold has risen over 34 fold in the last 40 years).

 

For a FREE Special Report on how to beat the market both during bull market and bear market runs, visit us at:

http://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/special-reports.html

 

Best Regards

 

Phoenix Capital Research

 

 

 

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/xFJhG9zByx4/story01.htm Phoenix Capital Research

Many investors argue that Gold has no intrinsic value. I disagree with this assessment as it does not consider the nature of the financial system.

 

Let’s compare Gold to the US Dollar.

 

Every asset in the financial system trades based on relative value. Ultimately, this value is denominated in US Dollars because the Dollar is the reserve currency of the world.

 

However, even the US Dollar itself trades based on relative value. Remember the Dollar is merely a sheet of linen and cotton that is printed by the Fed and is backed by the full faith and credit of the Unites States.

In this sense, the Dollar’s value is derived from the confidence investors that the US will honor its debts.

 

A second item to consider is the fact that the Dollar’s value today also derived from the Fed’s money printing. Indeed, a Dollar today, is worth only 5% of a Dollar’s value from the early 20^th century because the Fed has debased the currency.

 

As a result of this the world has adjusted to this change in relative “value” resulting in a Dollar buying less today than it did 100 years ago.

 

In this sense, Gold’s value is derived from investors’ faith in the Financial System (ultimately backstopped by the Dollar) and the Fed’s actions.

 

Gold also moves based on investors’ confidence in the system. If investors’ are afraid that the system is under duress (meaning that they have little confidence in the Dollar-based financial system) then they perceive Gold has having a higher value.

 

Similarly, if the Fed prints Dollars by the billions, Gold is perceived as having a higher value relative to the Dollar.

 

Thus, Gold does not have any less intrinsic value than the US Dollar does. In that regard we can price it relative to the Fed’s actions and to the fear of systemic risk to get an assessment of its true value.

 

As noted a moment ago, every asset in the financial system trades relative to investors’ confidence in that system. With the US Dollar as the reserve currency of the world, that confidence is ultimately based on the idea the US will pay you if it owes you money.

 

If you remove this confidence, then the entire system collapses as the reserve currency is no longer perceived has having value.

 

The problem with this setup however is that the US, like almost every other country in the world (I’m including China which is sporting a Debt to GDP ratio north of 200% if you account for its Shadow Banking liabilities), has made promises that it cannot possibly keep.

 

The US “officially” owes nearly $17 trillion in debt. However, if you include unfunded liabilities this amount surges to at least over $80 trillion and likely north of $100 trillion.

 

These are promises the US has made. And the US Dollar’s value is based on the belief that the US will honor these promises.

 

The US is not isolated in this regard. Indeed, the problem of unfunded liabilities exists throughout the world.

 

In the case of Europe, the situation is so bad that the average EU country would need to have an amount equal to over 400% of its GDP sitting in the bank, earning interest at the government’s borrowing rate, in order to fund its unfunded liabilities.

 

The same goes for Japan and even China where the shadow banking system has liabilities north of 200% of China’s GDP.

 

These are promises that cannot be kept. And when these promises are broken confidence in the system will be broken. This will inevitably lead to a period of currency collapse. After this, ultimately there will be a need to restore confidence in the system.

 

The only way to do this will be by backing currencies with Gold again (or a basket of items that includes Gold).

 

Given the limited amount of Gold in the world, (a little over 171,000 tons) and the enormous amount of US Dollars in the world, this would require a revaluation of Gold to north of $10,000. Dylan Grice formerly of Societe General lays this out beautifully in the below chart.

 

 

I cannot possibly predict when all of this would happen. All I can state with 100% certainty is that ALL fiat currencies throughout history have failed.

 

This failure has been based on a loss of confidence. And the only way to restore confidence is to limit the ability of Central Banks to print money.

 

This will inevitably lead to some form of a Gold backed currency. Gold has been used as currency for over 5,000 years. It will be considered currency again in the future. When it does, the price of Gold will be much higher (remember, Gold has risen over 34 fold in the last 40 years).

 

For a FREE Special Report on how to beat the market both during bull market and bear market runs, visit us at:

http://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/special-reports.html

 

Best Regards

 

Phoenix Capital Research

 

 

 

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/xFJhG9zByx4/story01.htm Phoenix Capital Research

A month ago, regulators in Europe began their investigation into manipulation of the “London gold fixing” (and we explained the methods here). While the complete history of gold manipulation goes a lot deeper than just banging the close on this crucial benchmark (which goes back to first world war); the decision by Germany’s financial regulator (BaFin) to probe Deutsche Bank signals greater concerns over the precious metals markets.  As The FT reports, BaFin has demanded emails and documents from Deutsche Bank as part of an investigation into potential manipulation of gold and silver prices.

 

Via The FT,

Germany’s financial regulator has demanded documents from Deutsche Bank as part of an investigation into potential manipulation of gold and silver prices.

 

…

 

Deutsche Bank is one of five banks that take part in the twice-daily “London gold fixing”, and one of three banks that take part in the equivalent process for silver.

 

…

 

Some bankers believe BaFin has come under pressure to show it is willing to get tough on suspected market manipulation. It was widely seen to have been slow to respond to the concerns over possible manipulation in the forex market expressed by other regulators around the world earlier this year.

 

Although the gold and silver fixings are, like Libor, set by small groups of banks, they contrast with the process for setting Libor in that they are based on trading activity rather than theoretical quotes.

 

…

 

The visit to Deutsche offices signals that BaFin now has greater concerns over the precious metals markets. Officials have asked to observe documents and processes related to precious metals trading as well as to interview bankers, the person said.

 

…

 

The other banks that take part in the gold fixing are Barclays, Bank of Nova Scotia, HSBC and Société Générale. The other banks involved in silver fixing are Bank of Nova Scotia and HSBC. As the only German member of either fixing, Deutsche is the only bank to come under BaFin’s remit.

Of course, despite day after day of closing price smackdowns (and the very occasaional vertical ramp), we are sure the regulators will find no wrong doing… for, as we noted here, this manipulation is by design, not malfeasance…it’s for your own good…

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/c701CKDntAY/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Over the course of the last few years we have vociferously exposed the growing inequalities and divergences between various elements of the status quo society.

 

 

With even the President now seemingly inciting class warfare (which as we discussed here and here is becoming an increasingly  new normal "age warfare" issues); we roll out the wayback machine for 150 seconds of clarity from Doug Casey. With roughly half the American people net recipients of government support in some way (and work punished), Casey explains what happens when the entitled elect themselves (as Michael Burry so aptly noted "the party accelerates, and the brutal hangover is inevitable,") and the social and political consequences.

 

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/_q8oVzvsnXo/story01.htm Tyler Durden

While fundamentals remain, for now, as useful as useful as having the only phone in the world; we demur to BofAML's technical analysis team for their short-term trading focus across various asset classes. In light of the only thing that matters, the Fed balance sheet (as Hugh Hendry so eloquently explained), BAML warns "beware the bear trap" in stocks…

 

In FX markets,

CHF at risk of a bearish reversal. $/¥ choppy, but bullish

 

Across many pairs the CHF has reached significant resistance and is now at risk of a bearish reversal. €/CHF is particularly worthy of note as it has completed a Bullish Reversal candle from retracement and pivot support. With momentum rolling bullish from its lowest levels since Apr'12, €/CHF could squeeze back towards 1.2346. $/CHF is in a similar situation and could squeeze back towards 0.9240, potentially 0.9472.

 

 

Turning to $/¥; since the 101.62 lows, price action has turned very choppy and overlapping, a condition likely to persist for the next week or so.

 

 

However, STAY BULLISH. THE UPTREND REMAINS FOR 104.60/105.00.

 

 

101.62 should mark the low end of price action AND $/¥ CAN'T TRADE BELOW 101.14/100.62.

Bonds remain a sell…

US 5yr yields stall at support, but stay bearish.

 

We remain bearish Treasuries. 10yr ylds are on track for 2.950%/2.992%/3.007% (swing targets and multi-month range high), while we remain short TYH4 (Dec-05 LTA : Sell TYH4. Treasuries are in Trouble). The completed TYH4 Head & Shoulders Top targets 122-06+. Meanwhile, 5yr yields have held the initial test of 1.556%/1.551% support (50% retrace of the Sep/Oct yield decline and mid-Sep pivot), but this should be only a temporary stopping point before the bear trend resumes for 1.670%/1.659%.

 

 

Back below 1.488% (equivalent to 2.839% in 10s and 124-17+ in TYH4) warns of stalling, while below 1.445%/1.443% (2.790% in 10yr yields and 124-30 in TYH4) negates the bearish potential. We recommend adjusting TYH4 stops to 125-02 from 125-08.

But "beware the bear trap" in stocks…

Conditions align for an ESZ3 Bear Trap  

Finally we reiterate our BEAR TRAP VIEW on ESZ3. While 1773.25 support remains pivotal, BEWARE A BEAR TRAP!!. Intra-day momentum is at levels that have coincided with important lows AND seasonals into year end and the week of triple Witching are VERY BULLISH.

Indeed, the S&P500 has finished higher in 22 of the past 28 years the week of December Triple Witching (Next week). Above 1784.50 confirms a base and turn higher.

And Buy WTI…

Time to buy WTI

 

The CLM4 impulsive advance from 92.21(Nov-267 low) says the near-term and, POTENTIALLY, medium-term trend has turned bullish for WTI. Targets are seen to the Aug highs at 100.65, but likely beyond towards 105. Indeed, there is potential for a resumption of the long term bull trend towards 122/123 (basis continuation charts). We are wrong on this view below the Nov-27 low at 92.21 (CLM4).

 

 

BUY CLM4 at 95.00, add at 94.00, risking 92.20, targeting 100.65 & beyond.  
 

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/TOqa0YXKE-8/story01.htm Tyler Durden

While fundamentals remain, for now, as useful as useful as having the only phone in the world; we demur to BofAML's technical analysis team for their short-term trading focus across various asset classes. In light of the only thing that matters, the Fed balance sheet (as Hugh Hendry so eloquently explained), BAML warns "beware the bear trap" in stocks…

 

In FX markets,

CHF at risk of a bearish reversal. $/¥ choppy, but bullish

 

Across many pairs the CHF has reached significant resistance and is now at risk of a bearish reversal. €/CHF is particularly worthy of note as it has completed a Bullish Reversal candle from retracement and pivot support. With momentum rolling bullish from its lowest levels since Apr'12, €/CHF could squeeze back towards 1.2346. $/CHF is in a similar situation and could squeeze back towards 0.9240, potentially 0.9472.

 

 

Turning to $/¥; since the 101.62 lows, price action has turned very choppy and overlapping, a condition likely to persist for the next week or so.

 

 

However, STAY BULLISH. THE UPTREND REMAINS FOR 104.60/105.00.

 

 

101.62 should mark the low end of price action AND $/¥ CAN'T TRADE BELOW 101.14/100.62.

Bonds remain a sell…

US 5yr yields stall at support, but stay bearish.

 

We remain bearish Treasuries. 10yr ylds are on track for 2.950%/2.992%/3.007% (swing targets and multi-month range high), while we remain short TYH4 (Dec-05 LTA : Sell TYH4. Treasuries are in Trouble). The completed TYH4 Head & Shoulders Top targets 122-06+. Meanwhile, 5yr yields have held the initial test of 1.556%/1.551% support (50% retrace of the Sep/Oct yield decline and mid-Sep pivot), but this should be only a temporary stopping point before the bear trend resumes for 1.670%/1.659%.

 

 

Back below 1.488% (equivalent to 2.839% in 10s and 124-17+ in TYH4) warns of stalling, while below 1.445%/1.443% (2.790% in 10yr yields and 124-30 in TYH4) negates the bearish potential. We recommend adjusting TYH4 stops to 125-02 from 125-08.

But "beware the bear trap" in stocks…

Conditions align for an ESZ3 Bear Trap  

Finally we reiterate our BEAR TRAP VIEW on ESZ3. While 1773.25 support remains pivotal, BEWARE A BEAR TRAP!!. Intra-day momentum is at levels that have coincided with important lows AND seasonals into year end and the week of triple Witching are VERY BULLISH.

Indeed, the S&P500 has finished higher in 22 of the past 28 years the week of December Triple Witching (Next week). Above 1784.50 confirms a base and turn higher.

And Buy WTI…

Time to buy WTI

 

The CLM4 impulsive advance from 92.21(Nov-267 low) says the near-term and, POTENTIALLY, medium-term trend has turned bullish for WTI. Targets are seen to the Aug highs at 100.65, but likely beyond towards 105. Indeed, there is potential for a resumption of the long term bull trend towards 122/123 (basis continuation charts). We are wrong on this view below the Nov-27 low at 92.21 (CLM4).

 

 

BUY CLM4 at 95.00, add at 94.00, risking 92.20, targeting 100.65 & beyond.  
 

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/TOqa0YXKE-8/story01.htm Tyler Durden

With the recent deployment of China’s air defenze zone, and the subsequent announcement of a comparable zone by South Korea which overlaps not only with China’s own, but with that of Japan, it almost seems like a scenario designed to provoke an escalating conflict on the tiniest of provocations is actively being produced. A scenario such as the one US defense officials revealed today, when a guided missile cruiser operating in international waters in the South China Sea was forced to take evasive action last week to avoid a collision with a Chinese navy ship maneuvering nearby.

Hold on: how can two massive ships, visible to the naked eye and certainly to radar from hundreds of miles away, “nearly collide”?

Reuters reports that the incident took place on December 5 and involved the USS Cowpens. The Pacific Fleet statement did not offer details about what led to the near-collision.

But it did say the incident underscored the need for the “highest standards of professional seamanship, including communications between vessels, to mitigate the risk of an unintended incident or mishap.”

The rest of the story is widely known:

Beijing declared the air defense zone over the East China Sea late last month and demanded that aircraft flying through the area provide it with flight plans and other information.

 

The United States and its allies rejected the Chinese demand and have continued to fly military aircraft into the zone, which includes air space over a small group of islands claimed by China but currently administered by Tokyo.

 

In the midst of the tensions over the air defense zone, China deployed its only aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, to the South China Sea for maneuvers. Beijing claims most of the South China Sea and is involved in territorial disputes in the region with several of its neighbors.

And so, the waters have been tested, so to speak, with a media “warning” on just how brazen China can be when it comes to its “aggressive” tactics in what we are confident the Chinese media will describe as its own maritime territory, begging the question of just who was provoking whom, especially since the response to a Chinese missile cruiser sailing idly by New York or San Francisco, even if in “international waters”, would hardly see the same controlled reaction by the US.

Then again, it has been only two weeks since China’s most recent “escalation.” We are confident that given time, this will be the least of the close shipping encounters that involve Chinese, US, Japanese and/or Korean navies in the East China Sea. After all, one must think of all that, GDP that as WWII taught us, can be easiest gained through some modest, or not so modest, international conflict.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/HmU28RkJt6M/story01.htm Tyler Durden