Restaurant Traffic Implodes: New York, Seattle Plummet More Than 60%
The past week was not only the most painful for US capital markets since the global financial crisis: it was also the week the US service economy finally died (at least until the coronavirus pandemic is finally under control).
One week ago, when predicting that a coronavirus recession could send the S&P500 to 2,450 by year end – a level that was almost breached last Thursday – Goldman showed that the the most important leisure sectors such as airlines, casino, hotels and cruises, had been clobbered in the market as fears of coronavirus put Americans in self-imposed, or otherwise, quarantine would lead to a hard stop for service providers.
One industry was missing from the chart above: restaurants, and for good reason – for all the panic about a viral pandemic, it appeared that nothing could stand between Americans and their favorite pastime: eating out.
Then everything changed last weekend when restaurant traffic suddenly imploded.
As online reservation website OpenTable Reservations writes on its blog, “reservations stayed stable in February with a big increase on Valentine’s Day. But March brought new health and safety concerns around the world. Looking at comprehensive data from restaurants on our platform — across online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins — we note sharp declines over the last week.“
The data, which can be pulled here, is unprecedented and shows that starting around last Sunday, when the market crashed, restaurant traffic plunged both around the globe, with the world and US posting a historic 36% Y/Y drop in restaurant traffic…
… a collapse which was most notable among US “epicenter” cities such as Seattle and New York, which both saw traffic tumble more than 60%…
… although according to OpenTable not a single city around the developed world appeared to be spared.
A full breakdown of the ongoing collapse can be seen at the country-level
… state level…
… and most notably, city level, where traffic is a sea of red compared to last year
Keep in mind that changing human behaviors and long-running habits is extremely difficult, which is why it took this long for restaurant use to plunge. However, it will now be just as difficult for “eating out” to get back to normal, and is also why OpenTable, whose entire business model depends on a quick reversal of this collapse has a plea to everyone: please eat out more!
Please support your local restaurants during this turbulent time, as they are a vital part of our communities. Many operate on thin margins and fear staff layoffs and shut downs. Home delivery through the OpenTable app is a good alternative to dining out. Another option is to buy restaurant gift cards for future use.
OpenTable generously “offering” the use of its app as an alternative to dining out aside, the impact of the coronavirus on the already razor-thin margin restaurant industry will be absolutely devastating, and should the self-imposed quarantine last for several weeks, look for a wave of bankruptcies and shutterings as companies, already buried under a mountain of debt, suddenly find themselves with zero new cashflow, and absent a countrywide interest or debt payment moratorium, the US is about to be hit with a tidal wave of small business defaults.
How often have you heard the stock market looks a year ahead of a recession?
Stock Market is Not Forward Looking
A widespread myth persists that the stock market is a leading indicator of recessions, providing a year or more warning on average before one starts.
Actually, the stock market is a coincident indicator of sentiment towards stocks, no more no less.
The stock market sees ahead myth stems from Wall Street pimps who want you in the market 100% of the time or they don’t make money.
2007 Recession Trigger
The stock market peaked in November of 2007. Recession started in December of 2007.
What was the 2007 recession trigger?
There was none, at least one that people can easily point to. More accurately, sentiment changed and that was the trigger. The pool of greater fools willing to buy houses ran out.
Conditions rapidly changed from people standing in lines wrapped around the corner to enter a lottery to buy a condo, to no one in line at all.
The change happened in a week in Florida then rapidly spread through the country with agents touting “this market is different” until the entire country was engulfed.
2020 Trigger
People are already blaming the coronavirus.
Yes, it was a trigger. No, it is not to blame.
This recession was baked in the cake long ago, running solely on fumes of Fed stimulus then Trump tax cuts.
That’s the anatomy of a bubble and the coronavirus had nothing to do with it.
Moreover, earnings estimates are horrendous at the top. So despite the decline, stock are still not cheap.
It will take another 20% decline from here before we can begin discussing cheap.
Guess what?
Bubbles burst. The coronavirus no doubt accelerated the decline and kicked off a recession, but Fed-sponsored bubbles sew the seeds of their own decline. That is the true cause.
Recession Has Begun
I am confident a recession has started or will start within a month. This shock was that severe.
Cruise ships cancelled, NBA and NHL cancelled. The local businesses and bars around those hotshots will suffer.
There are supply chain disruptions everywhere.
The stock market decline will put a dent into boomers buying cars, taking vacations etc.
The demographics are poor. Downsizing and retired boomers wanting to sell their homes will not find millennial buyers.
Trump was good for the market. It hasn’t priced in Trump losing, and a recession coupled with his poor handling of the coronavirus will do it, no matter how quickly the coronavirus pandemic cools. Lost wages and profits are gone forever.
Denial
There was strong denial in 2007 regarding a recession.
Bernanke proclaimed in March of 2008 there would not be a recession. It had already started 3 months prior. He also told Congress there was no housing bubble to bust.
Is the same happening now? I think so. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate for first-quarter GDP is 3.1%. The New York Fed Nowcast is a more believable 1.59%.
Perhaps you have a month or two before recession starts. Perhaps it has already started.
The NBER will tell you when it started in about a year. Lovely.
While this week had many superlatives – like being the fastest collapse from peak to bear market ever, fastest credit spread decompression ever, biggest weekly jump in VIX ever, and largest 3-week decline in oil prices ever – one stands out as rather more ominous than others…
Three of five days this week made the list of top 20 daily gains of losses in history…
Top 20 biggest daily gains and losses back to 1926.
3 of 5 days this week made the list!
29, 32, 33, 87, 08, 20 had weeks with multiples.
All led to profound changes in either markets and/or the economy.
The COVID-19 pandemic continues to explode all over the globe, and authorities are warning that it is going to continue to get worse.
The number of confirmed cases outside of China roughly tripled once again this week, and if this outbreak continues to escalate at this pace there will be more than a million confirmed cases in less than a month. But as bad as the official numbers are, the truth is that there are a whole lot more people walking around out there that have caught the virus but have not been tested. In fact, a medical professor at Johns Hopkins University named Marty Makary believes that there are “probably 25 to 50 people who have the virus for every one person who is confirmed”…
“Don’t believe the numbers when you see, even on our Johns Hopkins website, that 1,600 Americans have the virus,” he said.
“No, that means 1,600 got the test, tested positive. There are probably 25 to 50 people who have the virus for every one person who is confirmed.”
He added:
“I think we have between 50,000 and half a million cases right now walking around in the United States.”
If he is correct, and considering how easily this virus spreads from person to person, it isn’t going to be too long before this virus is everywhere, as Makary concluded:
“…we’re about to experience the worst public health epidemic since polio”
Other health experts are also warning that the number of Americans that have become infected is already extremely high. As I pointed out yesterday, Ohio Department of Health Director Amy Acton is convinced that the number of victims in her state is now above 100,000…
Ohio health officials announced Thursday that the state has five known cases of the coronavirus, but one expert said that the number is likely much higher and estimated 100,000 undiagnosed cases.
Dr. Amy Acton, the director of the state’s health department, told reporters that the virus is “among us, but we can’t see it yet,” WBRB reported.
But of course what we have seen so far could just be the tip of the iceberg.
According to the New York Times, the CDC is projecting that up to 214 million Americans could eventually become infected…
Between 160 million and 214 million people in the United States could be infected over the course of the epidemic, according to one projection. That could last months or even over a year, with infections concentrated in shorter periods, staggered across time in different communities, experts said. As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die.
Can you imagine how overwhelmed our healthcare system will be if that actually happens?
According to an analysis that was just conducted by USA Today, we could soon see 17 seriously ill coronavirus patients competing for each open hospital bed…
A USA TODAY analysis shows that if the nation sees a major spike, there could be almost six seriously ill patients for every existing hospital bed.
That analysis, based on data from the American Hospital Association, U.S. Census, CDC and World Health Organization, is conservative. For example, it assumes all 790,000 beds will be empty.
Since two thirds are not, the reality could be far worse: about 17 people competing for each open bed.
And we still have no idea how long this pandemic will last.
Many officials are hoping that it will be over in a matter of months, but what if lasts for three full years like the Spanish Flu pandemic did?
At this point, the entire western world is literally in the process of shutting down as fear of the coronavirus spreads like wildfire. Many people are going to be deathly afraid to go out in public for the foreseeable future because this virus is so easy to catch.
It could be on the next surface that you touch, it could be on the next hand that you shake, and there is even the possibility that you could breathe it in during the next breath that you take.
Considering how many people our national leaders interact with on a daily basis, they are particularly vulnerable. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s wife has already tested positive for the virus, and Trudeau himself has gone into voluntary self-quarantine.
Here in the United States, President Trump says that he will “most likely” get tested soon after being exposed to someone that had the virus. The following comes from ABC News…
He also said he “most likely” will get tested himself, although he said he had no symptoms. “I think I will be,” he said. “Fairly soon, we’re working on that, we’re working out a schedule,” he responded to a reporter’s question, saying not because of any exposure he might have had, “but because I think I will do it anyway.” He had been photographed last weekend standing next to a Brazilian official who tested positive.
Ivanka Trump self-isolated at home on Friday, not going into the White House, after she was photographed with Australian Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton days before he tested positive for coronavirus.
The White House said Dutton was ‘asymptomatic’ during his interaction with the first daughter and Ivanka Trump, who serves as an adviser to President Donald Trump, is showing no symptoms, doesn’t need to self-quarantine and stayed home out of an abundance of caution.
Things are really starting to get crazy out there.
When COVID-19 originally starting sweeping across China, most Americans weren’t really too concerned about it, but now a brand new survey has found that about two-thirds of all Americans are worried about catching the virus…
Two-thirds of Americans are concerned that they or someone they know will be infected with the novel coronavirus, but in a country with a growing partisan divide, political tribalism is having a large impact when it comes to anxiety over the disease, according to a new ABC News/Ipsos poll released Friday.
Although unease over the coronavirus is high, it also strongly breaks along partisan lines. Among Democrats, 83% are concerned about getting coronavirus, including 47% who are very concerned, and among Republicans, 56% are concerned, including only 15% who are very concerned. Only 17% of Democrats are not concerned while a larger 44% of Republicans are not concerned.
Now that President Trump has officially declared a state of national emergency, hopefully that partisan divide will start to diminish.
This virus should not be treated like a political issue. This is the biggest public health crisis of our time, and we all need to be taking it very seriously.
A panic-buying fever swept through the Big Apple Thursday, as mobs of freaked-out New Yorkers frantically scoured store shelves for any remaining supplies amid spreading coronavirus fears.
“We’re freaking out about it,” Monica Gang, 27, said as she braved the crowds at Trader Joe’s in Manhattan. “We came in here looking for rice, and there is no rice left. Rice crumbs are the only thing left. We don’t even know what to stock up on.”
But so far there are only about 2,000 confirmed cases in the U.S. and less than 100 people have died.
If this virus is causing this much fear now, what will our society look like if thousands (or even millions) of people start dying?
Let us continue to hope that this pandemic will eventually start to subside, but so far it has just continued to escalate week after week.
If something is not done to dramatically slow this virus down in the United States, soon the level of fear will be absolutely unprecedented.
Pentagon Orders All Troops Confined To Base Area, Bans Domestic Travel
As of Friday the Department of Defense issued an unprecedented for all service personnel stationed in the United States, forbidding them from non-operations related travel within the US. This follows earlier this month ‘leave and liberty’ restrictions already imposed for troops stationed in foreign countries.
A DoD memo issued Friday night said military personnel cannot travel beyond the “local area” of their assigned base, meaning troops are now barred from visiting family not in the immediate vicinity.
“This restriction will halt all domestic travel, including Permanent Change of Station, and Temporary Duty,” said a press statement released with the memo as reported by Defense One. “Additionally, service members will be authorized local leave only.”
Cannon AFB in New Mexico. Air Force image
Currently the troop travel ban covers March 16 through May 11, with an exemption for “mission-essential, for humanitarian reasons, or warranted due to extreme hardship,” based on local chain of command approval.
Restrictions have also been placed on base civilian contractors and dependent family members of personnel. The memo indicates:
“All DoD military personnel will stop movement while this memorandum is in effect. In addition, DoD civilian personnel and DoD family members, whose transportation is government-funded, will also stop movement.”
“Today, the Deputy Secretary of Defense David L. Norquist approved new travel restrictions for service members, DoD civilians, and their families assigned to DoD installations, facilities and surrounding areas within the United States and its territories,” it says.
It comes not only among broader national efforts to slow the spread of Covid-19 which included Trump’s national ‘State of Emergency’ declared Friday, but at a moment of concern that the virus could devastate densely-packed military barracks and severely impact US defense readiness.
How the Corona virus is going to effect military readiness:
▪️Not enough beds, not enough mil hospitals
▪️Good news, ave soldier is young and in good health
▪️Virus could hit us multiple times like Spanish flu
▪️Could knock units out of commission for wkshttps://t.co/U6Q8NBIHWo
“The military is unlikely to be hit by COVID-19 as hard as the general population because the virus particularly affects the sick and elderly according to the Center for Disease Control,” Army Special Forces veteran and national security journalist Jack Murphy writes.
Currently, some National Guard units have begun deploying in ‘hot zones’ like a community in New Rochelle, in order to assist with quarantines and food and medical supplies delivery.
The Aftermath – Surveying The Wreckage From Last Week’s Market-nado
The last two weeks have been unprecedented for any number of reasons – trading ranges, fund blow-ups, basis dislocations, correlation-one regime, no safe harbor – but aside from being the fastest collapse from a peak into bear market in US history…
There are a number of other WTF charts that show what just happened from 30,000 feet…
The bond market’s range this week was the largest ever…
And despite the massive liquidity, the money markets appear extremely stressed…
And market functioning in credit-related bond ETFs broke…
The market has swung from expecting nothing to demanding 100bps of rate-cuts next week by The Fed…
Bonds provided no ‘hedge’ this week as combined bond and stock losses were the worst since Lehman…
And aside from the broken market function, market internals are almost unprecedented (as Dana Lyons shows below)…
After Multi-Decade False Breakout, Value Line Geometric Composite, i.e., the “Median Stock,” Now Down 40% To 7-Year Lows, Retracing 50% Of 2009-2018 Rally
And finally, if you wanted some even bigger context, the market is starting to reverse the illusion of wealth enabled by central bank largesse over the last five years (during which corporate profits have been flat):
Images From New York’s First Drive-Thru Testing Facility
Just as Gov. Cuomo promised on Thursday, New York’s first coronavirus drive-through testing center opened Friday morning in New Rochelle, and is up and running, collecting samples from anxious New Yorkers in the Westchester County town that has emerged as a hot spot for the national epidemic.
Along with a nursing home in Kirkland, Wash., where roughly two dozen patients have died of the virus, New Rochelle has emerged as one of the worst hot spots over the past two weeks since a lawyer from the community became its patient zero.
“This is drive-thru testing – something I didn’t hear of last week, but we’re doing this week,” Gov. Andrew Cuomo said.
Drive-through testing means people in this community can call a telephone number, make an appointment, and they can come to be tested and literally drive through the testing facilities.”
This isn’t the first drive-thru coronavirus testing site in the country – the Mayo Clinic in Rochester Minnesota has set one up, as we reported earlier in the week. And others are popping out around the country.
As President Trump confirmed during Saturday’s task force press conference, there have been 50 deaths across the US.
The set-up includes six drive-through lanes to handle 200 cars a day, Cuomo said. That’s about 15 minutes per car, he said. The medical staff will come to the car, perform two tests per person and then send the swabs to BioReference Laboratories, the research lab in the state charged with processing. The process can be seen in the video below:
Here’s another video:
Since the entire New Rochelle school district is shut down, maybe the kids can come out and do a coronavirus drive through car wash and bake sale fundraiser? With everybody maintaining the proper ‘four-foot social distance’.
If you haven’t seen the movie “The Revenant” with Leonardo DiCaprio, it is a 2015 American survival drama describing frontiersman Hugh Glass’s experiences in 1823. Early in the movie, Hugh, an expert hunter, and tracker, is mauled by a grizzly bear. (Warning: the scene is very graphic)
In the scene, the attack comes in three distinct waves.
The bear attacks, and brutally mauls Hugh, who plays dead to survive. The attack subsides.
The bear comes back, and Huge shoots it, provoking the bear to maul him some more.
Finally, Huge pulls out his knife as the bear attacks for a final fight to the death.(Hugh wins if you don’t want to watch the video.)
Interestingly, this is also how a “bear market” works.
Bear markets have three stages – sharp down, reflexive rebound and a drawn-out fundamental downtrend
Bear markets often START with a sharp and swift decline.
After this decline, there is an oversold bounce that retraces a portion of that decline.
The longer-term decline then continues, at a slower and more grinding pace, as the fundamentals deteriorate.
Dow Theory also suggests that bear markets consist of three down legs with reflexive rebounds in between.
The chart above shows the stages of the last two primary cyclical bear markets versus today (the 2020 scale has been adjusted to match.)
As would be expected, the “Phase 1” selloff has been brutal.
That selloff sets up a “reflexive bounce.” For many individuals, they will “feel like” they are “safe.” This is how “bear market rallies” lure investors back in just before they are mauled again in “Phase 3.”
Just like in 2000, and 2008, the media/Wall Street will be telling you to just “hold on.” Unfortunately, by the time “Phase 3” was finished, there was no one wanting to “buy” anything.
One of the reasons we are fairly certain of a further decline is due to the dual impacts of the “COVID-19” virus, and oil price shock. As noted in our MacroView:
“With the U.S. now shutting down and entrenching itself in response to the virus, the economic impact will be worsened. However, given that economic data is lagging, and we only have numbers that were mostly pre-virus, the reports over the next couple of months will ultimately reveal the extent of the damage.
With oil prices now at $30/bbl and 10-year breakeven rates to 0.9%, the math is significantly worse, and that is what the severity of the recent selloff is telling us. Over the next two quarters, we could see as much as a 3% clip off of current GDP.”
Unfortunately, while asset prices have declined, they have likely not fully accounted for the impact to earnings, permanently lost revenues, and the recessionary impact from falling consumer confidence. Historically, the gap between asset prices and corporate profits gets filled.
“What we know, with almost absolute certainty, is that we will be in an economic recession within the next couple of quarters. We also know that earnings estimates are still way too elevated to account for the disruption coming from the COVID-19.”
“What we DON’T KNOW is where the ultimate bottom for the market is. All we can do is navigate the volatility to the best of our ability and recalibrate portfolios to adjust for downside risk without sacrificing the portfolio’s ability to adjust for a massive ” bazooka-style ” monetary intervention from global Central Banks if needed quickly.
This is why, over the last 6-weeks, we have been getting more “defensive” by increasing our CASH holdings to 15% of the portfolio, with our 40% in bonds doing the majority of the heavy lifting in mitigating the risk in our remaining equity holdings.
Interestingly, the Federal Reserve DID show up on Thursday as expected. In a statement from the New York Fed:
The Federal Reserve said it would inject more than $1.5 trillion of temporary liquidity into Wall Street on Thursday and Friday to prevent ominous trading conditions from creating a sharper economic contraction.
If the transactions are fully subscribed, they would swell the central bank’s $4.2 trillion asset portfolio by more than 35%.” – WSJ
As you can see in the chart below, this is a massive surge of liquidity hitting the market at a time the market is sitting on critical long-term trend support.
Of course, this is what the market has been hoping for.
Rate cuts? Check
Liquidity? Check
On Friday, the market surged, and ALMOST recouped the previous day’s losses. (Sorry, it wasn’t President Trump’s speech that boosted the market.)
However, this rally, and liquidity flush, most likely does not negate the continuation of the bear market. The amount of technical damage combined with a recession, and a potential surge in credit defaults almost ensures another leg of the beg market is yet to come.
A look at the charts can also help us better understand where we currently reside.
Trading The Bounce
In January, when we discussed taking profits out of our portfolios, we noted the markets were trading at 3-standard deviations above their 200-dma, which suggested a pullback, or correction, was likely.
Now, it is the same comment in reverse. The correction over the last couple of weeks has completely reversed the previous bullish exuberance into extreme pessimism. On a daily basis, the market is back to oversold. Historically, this condition has been sufficient for a bounce. Given the oversold condition (top panel) is combined with a very deep “sell signal” in the bottom panel, it suggests a fairly vicious reflexive rally is likely as we saw on Friday.
The question, of course, is where do you sell?
Looking at the chart above, it is possible for a rally to the 38.2%, or 50% retracement levels. However, with the severity of the break below the 200-dma, the 61.8% retracement level, where the 200-dma now resides, will be very formidable resistance. With the Fed’s liquidity push, it is possible for a strong “Phase 2” rally. Our plan will be to reduce equity exposure at each level of resistance and increase our equity hedges before the “Phase 3” mauling ensues.
The following chart is a longer-term analysis of the market and is the format we use for “onboarding” our clients into allocation models. (Vertical black lines are buy periods)
“But Lance, how do you know that Friday wasn’t THE bottom?”
A look at longer-term time-frames gives us some clues.
With all of our longer-term weekly “sell signals” now triggered from fairly high levels, it suggests the current selloff is not over as of yet. In other words, we will see a rally, followed by a secondary failure to lower lows, before the ultimate bottom is put in.
I have mapped out the three most logical secondary bottoms for the market, so you can assess your portfolio risk accordingly.
A retest of current lows that holds is a 27% decline.
A retest of the 2018 lows, most likely, is an average recessionary decline of 32.8%
A retest of the 2016 lows, coincident with a “credit event,” would entail a 50.9% decline.
Given the weekly signals have only recently triggered, we can look at monthly data to confirm we still remain confined to a “bearish market” currently.
On a monthly basis, sell signals have been triggered. However, these signals are NOT VALID until the end of the month. However, given the depth of the decline, it would likely require a rally back to all-time highs to reverse those signals. This is a very high improbability.
Assuming the signals remain, there is an important message being sent, as noted in the top panel. The “negative divergence” of relative strength has only been seen prior to the start of the previous two bear markets, and the 2015-2016 slog. While the current selloff resembles what we saw in late 2015, there is a risk of this developing into a recessionary bear market later this summer. The market is holding the 4-year moving average, which is “make or break” for the bull market trend from the 2009 lows.
However, we suspect those levels will eventually be taken out. Caution is advised.
What We Are Thinking
Since January, we have been regularly discussing taking profits in positions, rebalancing portfolio risks, and, most recently, moving out of areas subject to slower economic growth, supply-chain shutdowns, and the collapse in energy prices. This led us to eliminate all holdings in international, emerging markets, small-cap, mid-cap, financials, transportation, industrials, materials, and energy markets.(RIAPRO Subscribers were notified real-time of changes to our portfolios.)
There is “some truth” to the statement “that no one” could have seen the fallout of the “coronavirus” being escalated by an “oil price” war. However, there have been mounting risks for quite some time from valuations, to price deviations, and a complete disregard of risk by investors. While we have been discussing these issues with you, and making you aware of the risks, it was often deemed as “just being bearish” in the midst of a “bullish rally.”However, it is managing these types of risks, which is ultimately what clients pay advisors for.
It isn’t a perfect science. In times like these, it gets downright messy. But this is where working to preserve capital and limit drawdowns becomes most important. Not just from reducing the recovery time back to breakeven, but in also reducing the “psychological stress,” which leads individuals to make poor investment decisions over time.
As noted last week:
“Given the extreme oversold and deviated measures of current market prices, we are looking for a reflexive rally that we can further reduce risk into, add hedges, and stabilize portfolios for the duration of the correction. When it is clear, the correction, or worse a bear market, is complete, we will reallocate capital back to equities at better risk/reward measures.”
We highly suspect that we have seen the highs for the year. Most likely, we are moving into an environment where portfolio management will be more tactical in nature, versus buying and holding.
Take some action on this rally.
If this is a “Phase 2” relief rally of a bear market, you really don’t want to be around for the “final mauling.”
Another Wave Of Rockets Slam Into Camp Taji, Wounding 3 US Troops
A US airbase just north of the Iraqi capital has come under more major rocket fire a mere days after an initial attack killed one British and two American soldiers. A US defense official has told Reuters that three American troops were wounded in the attack.
Iraqi security officials separately confirmed Saturdaya barrage of some 33 rockets were fired on the base, also injuring multiple Iraqi national forces – some critically – in the early morning hours. And US coalition statements indicated at least 25 107mm rockets hit the base before 11 am, according to the AP.
Unusually this latest attack came during the daylight hours and also followed major US airstrikes Thursday night which targeted at least 5 Kataib Hezbollah locations across southern Iraq. It appears that Iraqi Shia militias are attempting to draw ‘red lines’ — and feel emboldened to respond to the earlier American airstrikes given growing Iraqi government anger at Washington.
Iraqi Army file image, via AFP/Getty Images
The Pentagon had immediately blamed the large Iran-backed militia for killing US troops in the initial Wednesday assault.
Many analysts and pundits fear this is the start of yet another tit-for-tat between the US and Iran and its proxies leading to significant military escalation, similar to the series of events which paved the way for the US killing by drone of IRGC Quds Force chief Qassem Soleimani on January 3rd. Since then, the two have been on a war footing, despite things cooling a bit of late as the region and the world grapples with the pressing threat of the coronavirus pandemic.
Interestingly, all of this is a source of soaring tensions between uneasy allies Baghdad and Washington, given Iraq’s government immediately condemned the Thursday Pentagon ‘retaliation’ attack on Kataib Hezbollah, which it said killed five Iraqi security force members and a civilian.
Air Force Staff Sgt. Marshal D. Robert and Army Spc. Juan Miguel Mendez Covarrubia. Source: Stars & Stripes/US Army
Meanwhile, top US forces general in the region, Marine Gen. Frank McKenzie, brushed Baghdad’s condemnation aside, essentially saying it was Iraqi forces’ fault for being there. But many officers in the Iraqi Army essentially see Khatib Hezbollah as a de facto extension of national forces.
“These locations that we struck are clear locations of terrorist bases,” McKenzie said Friday. When asked about Iraq’s fierce response, he said, “If Iraqi military forces are there, I would say it’s probably not a good idea to position yourself with Khatib Hezbollah in the wake of a strike that killed Americans and Coalition members.”
Via AFP
But assuming it is Iran-backed Iraqi militias behind this newest Saturday morning rocket volley on Camp Taji, it appears Khatib Hezbollah or its Shia allies in the Iraqi military didn’t get the message.
Watch Live: White House Coronavirus Task Force Delivers Status Update
Now that Democrats and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin have managed to strike a deal on the federal Covid-19 economic rescue package, which Trump said he fully supports, the White House task force is holding another press conference to update the public on the coronavirus containment effort.
Notably, Trump announced the press conference shortly after the White House announced that it was implemented new procedures lie mandatory temperature checks for everybody coming into close contact with the president (including reporters in the briefing room).
Though, if this truly is another task force update, it’s possible that Trump won’t play a big role, though he has shown a penchant for stealing the spotlight from Pence and the team.
