Tag: finance

Pinterest Bans Zero Hedge By Adding To “Porn Domain Block List” Used To Target Conservatives

Documents leaked to Project Veritas by an insider at Pinterest reveal that the San Francisco-based social media company has blocked links from Zero Hedge and several conservative or religious-based websites – adding them to a ‘porn domain block list’ originally intended to keep the platform free of sexually explicit material. 

Veritas has published the list and interviewed said insider, who explained how the company with nearly 300 million active monthly users censors pro-life and Christian content.  

The leak reveals an aggressive campaign to censor conservative content under the guise of ‘hate speech’ and ‘fake news.’ 

Links to the leaked documents can be viewed here, here, here, here, here and here. Of note, in February the social media platform made headlines for blocking searches related to anti-vaccination material. At the time, the company was criticized over their seemingly random methods for determining offensive content. 

“There’s a secretive process with no real appeal where people are making extremely difficult subjective calls that have to do with politics, culture and religion,” said ACLU lawyer Jennifer Granick. 

The insider who leaked to Veritas agreed, saying that they were “pretty surprised” after discovering Live Action’s inclusion on the porn list. 

The insider explained that websites on a “domain block list” cannot be linked in posts made by users. While investigating, Project Veritas tried to post the LiveAction.org link on Pinterest and failed to do so, receiving an error message that read, “Sorry! Your request could not be completed.” Project Veritas reviewed the list of websites from the “porn domain block list” and was able to confirm that along with LiveAction.org, websites like zerohedge.com, pjmedia.com, teaparty.org and other various conservative websites were also listed. The majority of the document lists pornographic websites. –Project Veritas

Screenshot of leaked internal document (via Project Veritas)

The company is particularly protective of Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), where content “attacking credibility” of the Green New Deal can result in action taken against its source. 

Pinterest is also looking out for Elizabeth Warren and Cory Booker, and has provided a list of websites to watch which have been critical of the latter. 

Auto-complete block too!?

In addition to the domain bans, a leaked “Sensitive Terms List” includes phrases that can be blocked by the site’s auto-complete feature. 

Project Veritas also received a large text file titled “Sensitive Terms List.” The insider said the file contains search terms that Pinterest considers “sensitive,” and that the terms are modified in search results according to different value assignments. According to the insider and supporting documents, terms are assigned an “abusive,” “sensitive,” and “brand unsafe” value.

Some of the actions that can be taken on search terms include: blocking auto-complete results in the search bar, providing an advisory message when a term is searched for, removing the term from recommended or trending feeds, and blocking email or push notifications. Search results are also modified based on the values that are applied to terms.

Project Veritas reviewed the “Sensitive Terms List” and discovered that Christianity-related terms like “christian easter” and “bible verses” were marked as “brand unsafe.” The insider explained to Project Veritas in an interview that such terms are removed from auto-complete search results. –Project Veritas

Meanwhile, another leaked document reveals internal Slack channel discussions in which Public Policy and Social Impact Manager Ifeoma Ozoma instructs others to watch for “white supremacist” content from conservative commentators Ben Shapiro, Candace Owens and others. As Veritas notes “Three days after Ozoma’s message, the terms “ben shapiro muslim” and “ben shapiro islam” were added to the “Sensitive Terms List.”” 

“I think when public policies don’t match with how social media companies are actually implementing them, people have a right to know, people have a right to that transparency,” said the insider, adding “And the thing is one person can make all the difference… one person can bring transparency to big tech.“

(H/T Ali Alexander)

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2wQg4uU Tyler Durden

20-Year-Old Sells Blood Plasma Twice A Week To Fund Her Shopping Addiction

Carisa Barker, a 20-year-old self-described “shopaholic”, has made more than $3,000 by “donating” blood plasma, which she does twice a week. She uses the money from donating selling her blood to fund her shopping addiction, according to the NY Post. 

She has spent a year visiting a donation clinic twice a week to donate plasma in exchange for cash. She nets about $280 per month from her donations and has brought in $3,360 over the course of one year. She recommends the practice as an “effortless way to make money”, according to the article. 

Barker said: “I would absolutely recommend it to people who are short of cash and want to go shopping. I donate plasma twice a week. I get $20 the first time and $50 the next time. It’s just a little bit of extra money that I can spend that I don’t feel I worked very hard for.”

Instagram: @Carisa_Barker

Barker admits she hits the mall “about three times a week” and that she spends about $600 per month on clothes. 

She continued: “I’m a shopaholic and I would shop every day if I could. I usually go three or four times a week. Clothes and shoes are my favorite things to buy and I also love beauty products. On each shopping trip I only spend about $50 but that adds up to $150 a week. If I see something that I like or there’s a discount or a good deal, I’ll just buy it. I feel powerful knowing that I have the money and I can buy stuff.”

Plasma is a yellowish fluid in blood that remains after white and red blood cells and platelets have been removed. It is made of water, salts, proteins and enzymes and can be used in medicine that help people suffering from burns, shock and trauma.  And plasma donors – unlike blood donors – are offered cash for their donations. 

She began donating at BioLife Plasma Services in Layton, Utah last summer after a friend suggested it. BioLife said: “Donors also must meet screening criteria for blood count (hematocrit) and total protein levels, along with other screening criteria, prior to each donation – additional testing is done every four months. BioLife adheres to those standards as part of our commitment to the highest standards of safety for our donors and our products that go out to patients.”

Barker said: “One of my friends does it and she took me with her one time. I just kept doing it. I do it as often as I can, which is usually twice a week. It takes about an hour and a half each time I go,” she said.

She continued that “as long as I eat a lot of protein before I go and stay hydrated, I feel fine. There are no health risks that I know of and my parents are fine with me doing it. My plasma is used to make medicines for people with rare diseases. It makes me feel good to know that I’m helping people. I plan to keep donating.”

“My friends have told me to stop shopping but I can’t. I live at home and all of my money goes on shopping. I would save a lot of money if I stopped but as long as I have money that I can spend, I’m going to keep doing it. If I was ever at a point where I didn’t have money, I would stop. Shopping is my biggest expenditure but I also spend a lot on travel.”

And of course, she updates her followers on her plasma donation and shopping addition on her very own YouTube channel.

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2Iadtml Tyler Durden

Pritzker’s Untruth: Illinois’ Budget Is Billions Out Of Balance

Authored by Ted Dabrowski and John Klingner via WirePoints.com,

Gov. J.B. Pritzker says Illinois’ budget is balanced ”for the first time in decades.” That’s the claim he made upon signing Illinois’ $40 billion budget for 2020. Pritzker’s claim is simply not true. According to the state’s own actuarial calculations, his budget is billions in the red.

A big reason for the unbalanced budget comes from how politicians account for the state’s retirement debts versus how financial professionals do. There’s often a gap of several billion dollars between the two. Hiding that gap has allowed Illinois pols to perpetuate the myth of balanced budgets for decades.

Take Pritzker’s 2020 budget. The state’s pension funding laws, set up nearly 25 years ago by the General Assembly and then-Gov. Jim Edgar, require the state to pay $9 billion* to Illinois’ five state-run pensions in 2020. “We are paying the full payment that is required under the ramp that was put in place in 1995, the statutory required payment,” Pritzker said when he signed the budget.

But what Pritzker ignores is the amount the state’s own actuaries say is required to properly fund Illinois’ pensions in 2020, an amount that exceeds $13 billion. That’s a total shortfall of $4 billion.

And it’s not just pension payments that are being shorted. It’s also payments for state-worker retiree health insurance that are grossly underpaid.

State actuaries calculate the required payments for those benefits at about $4 billion annually, yet the state has only paid around $1 billion yearly in recent years. That’s billions more in shortfalls that Pritzker’s budget ignores.

Defenders of the “balanced-budget” claim will want to paint the above as a matter of semantics. But the billions in shortfalls are not only a matter of accounting. When the state continues to grow its pension promises faster than it can pay for them – and then doesn’t pay enough into its state-worker retirement plans – it doesn’t balance the budget. The state’s debts jump as a result. Illinois’ skyrocketing pension and retiree health insurance debts are the evidence of that.

Illinois not even “treading water”

Despite the fact that Pritzker’s payment to pensions consumes nearly a quarter of the current budget – no other state is in such dire straits – it still won’t stop the state’s pension debts from growing. That’s how sick Illinois’ finances are.

Illinois’ Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability shows that despite a $9.2 billion* contribution into pensions in 2020, the state’s unfunded liabilities will still increase by $2.4 billion to $139 billion. Illinois is not unlike the financial deadbeat that never pays the minimum payment on his credit card. As a result, its debts just grow.

To just “tread water” – to keep Illinois’ debt flat from one year to the next – the state payment in 2020 should be $2.4 billion higher, or over $11 billion in total.

That tread water amount, however, does nothing to reduce Illinois’ pension debts. Even more, it’s based on the state’s actuarial assumptions actually panning out. If they don’t, then the state’s pension debts will be even bigger.

Statutory payment

If Pritzker and team want to make claims of “balanced” budgets, they’ll have to make lots of changes going forward.

For starters, they’ll need to dump the Edgar ramp, which pushes the repayment of pension debts far into the future, requires just 90 percent funding levels by 2045, and assumes overly optimistic investment rates.

In its place, they’ll have to accept the stricter standards adopted by the state actuaries (see Exhibit 2 for an example of TRS’ standard). Their required payments are larger to ensure the pension shortfalls get paid down sooner. They pursue 100 percent funding targets and accelerate the repayment of debts (TRS’ actuaries target 2035, SERS targets 2040 and SURS targets 2045). And how they account for individual pensions is more conservative (entry age normal vs. projected unit cost). All that results in required payments that are $4 billion larger than the state’s statutory requirements.

But politicians should go even further. While the actuaries still depend on ramps, other financial groups demand the use of less rosy investment rate assumptions and flat debt repayment schedules (level dollar) to determine yearly state contributions.

Wirepoints has covered JP Morgan’s estimates of Illinois’ required payments and ran our own as well, shown below. Those more responsible assumptions would require the state to put even more money into the pension plans.

Irresponsible

Politicians on both sides of the aisle can pat themselves on the back all they want for passing a budget. But the truth is they’ve just made Illinois’ debt crisis even worse.

They’re not paying what they should, nor have they passed a single structural reform that would help lower the annual cost of retirements. (In fact, they’ve done the opposite by reboosting pension spiking for teachers.)

Illinois fiscal reality won’t change until the state is more honest about its debts and it reduces those debts through structural reforms.

*The state’s contribution includes $8 billion in money from the state’s general fund budget and an additional $1 billion from other special funds.

Read more about how politicians mislead Illinoisans about the impact of retirements on the budget:

Exhibit 1.

Exhibit 2.

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2XDrfTL Tyler Durden

Trump Teaser: “Biggest Part Of Mexico Deal Has Not Yet Been Revealed”

One day after Mexico’s Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard denied the existence of a secret immigration deal when describing the nature of the ‘understanding’ reached between the US and Mexico, President Trump again touted on Tuesday the existence of such a deal, saying the “biggest part of deal with Mexico has not yet been revealed!” during a series of tweets.

After blasting Maria Bartiromo (with whom Trump has sat for several exclusive interviews) and several other Fox Business hosts for the network’s criticisms of his tariff strategy (Trump called into CNBC Monday morning to attack a Chamber of Commerce official who had the temerity to criticize Trump’s protectionist trade strategy), the president added that the true efficacy of his tariff threats can’t yet be assessed by the public.

That’s because the “biggest part” of his deal with Mexico has yet to be revealed. He also accused China of intentionally weaken the yuan to offset the impact of the US tariffs, which is why there hasn’t been as much of an impact on the consumer.

Trump added that the tariff threats would help incentivize US automakers to move more production back to the US. When will we learn the details of this deal? It’s unclear. Both sides have said the Mexico will have a few weeks to prove that its immigration-mitigation strategies are working – and if they’re not, the issue will be revisited.

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2R6haMy Tyler Durden

Who would possibly do something so crazy? Pretty much everyone in Japan.

It was precisely 20 seconds past 9:44am on November 14, 2017 that Japan Railways train number 5255 departed from Minami Nagareyama Station on the outskirts of Tokyo.

Hardly anything seems noteworthy about a train leaving a station. It happens countless times each day all over the world.

Except THIS particular train was supposed to depart FORTY seconds past 9:44am. So it left the station 20 seconds early.

In virtually every other country in the world, a train departing 20 seconds early would not even be noticed. Nor would anyone care.

But this is Japan. And in Japan, the 5255 train departs at 9:44:20. Not a second earlier. Or later.

The early departure was such a big deal that the train company conducted an investigation into how such a transgression could have possibly occurred.

And then the CEO issued a formal apology explaining what steps the company was taking to ensure it wouldn’t happen again.

20 seconds…

Clearly this is one of the most unusual places in the world.

I actually refer to it as “Planet Japan”, because out of the 120+ countries that I’ve visited, Japan is by far the most… different, with a culture so unique it’s practically Martian.

Japan is a land of endless paradoxes.

Think back to 2011 when the country was devastated by a 9.0 magnitude earthquake.

Rather than panicking and looting, Japanese people sat quietly outside of their demolished homes waiting patiently for the authorities to tell them what to do, even while the nearby nuclear reactors were melting down.

Yet this is also the country where women are routinely groped on crowded subways, and used panties are sold in vending machines for sexual pleasure.

Streets in Tokyo are spotless. Yet you can walk for miles without seeing a single garbage bin.

This is a culture so serious that they perfected ritualistic suicide. Yet they go bonkers for cartoons and animated mascots.

The paradoxes extend to the economy as well.

In 1945 after being obliterated by the first atomic weapons in history, the Japanese people set themselves to the task of development. And they quickly built their economy into one of the most prosperous in the world.

Today Japan is wealthy and extraordinarily well developed. But the economy has been stagnant for decades.

Japan’s primary stock index, the Nikkei 225, is currently around 21,000… a level it first surpassed in March of 1987 when Lethal Weapon was the #1 movie in the world.

In other words, the stock market has returned zero gains to investors after three decades.

Japan is a land of extraordinary innovation. Just about everything here, from robotics to machinery, down to some of the most basic, everyday items (like toilets!) are cutting edge and different.

Yet there’s minimal entrepreneurship in Japan. And there’s a rampant problem with suicide among young workers (which reached a 30-year high in 2018).

The Japanese government’s debt burden is the highest in the world. At roughly 1.1 QUADRILLION yen (that’s fifteen zeroes, or about USD $10 trillion), Japan’s debt is more than twice the size of its entire economy.

And it’s only getting worse.

Then there’s the Social Security system… which is already draining the treasury. Japan’s population is THE oldest in the world, with the highest percentage of people over the age of 65, yet the longest life expectancy.

Recently a 90-year old pensioner voiced concern about the future solvency of Social Security, to which the Japanese finance minister commented, “How much longer do you plan to live?”

(Just a reminder- Soylent Green is people…)

Last year, it took 95% of the government’s tax revenue to service the debt, and pay for their national Social Security system. 95%!

Only 5% was left over for literally everything else in government. And that’s why the Japanese government has to keep borrowing.

The central bank has obliged, pushing interest rates down to NEGATIVE levels. The current yield on the Japanese 10-year government bond is a big fat MINUS 0.12%.

So you have to actually pay this bankrupt government money in order to lend to them.

Crazy, right? Who would do something so insane?

Pretty much every institution in Japan.

Major corporations. The central bank. Even individual investors– mom and pop pensioners, invest their cash in these negative yielding bonds that have no hope of ever being credibly repaid.

And of course, Japanese commercial banks buy these government bonds as well, meaning that pretty much everyone on Planet Japan with money in the bank is exposed to this garbage.

Don’t get me wrong– Planet Japan is truly wonderful: modern, captivating, and richly rewarding. It’s one of my favorite places to visit.

But it’s a great example of why a Plan B is so important.

It’s all fine and good to hope for the best… that the central bank will be able to print money forever, that the government will be able to borrow money forever, that every bank and major corporation will keep lending forever… and that there will never be any problems until the end of time.

But in light of such compelling evidence, that’s certainly wishful and dangerous thinking.

Plan B logic is pretty simple: if your government is completely bankrupt, you probably don’t want to hold 100% of your assets there.

If your central bank keeps printing money into oblivion, you probably don’t want to keep 100% of your savings in that currency.

If your banks are loading up on negative-yielding government debt (or any other garbage investments), you probably don’t want to keep 100% of your money there.

Obviously I’m not just talking about Japan here. Much of Europe and North America is in the same boat. Or at least the same choppy waters. So the same principles apply.

These steps aren’t pessimistic or gloomy. Having a Plan B is just common sense and absolutely worth your consideration.

Source

from Sovereign Man http://bit.ly/31rRIpJ
via IFTTT

Amazon Launches Credit Card For Deadbeats

Submitted by Nick Colas of DataTrek Research

Amazon launched a new credit card offering today for individuals with bad/no credit. If disruptive innovation always starts with addressing the low end of a market (and it does…) then this move merits attention. If anyone has the technological horsepower to crack the low end of the financial services marketplace, it’s Amazon.

Most of what passes for “disruptive innovation” doesn’t actually fit that description too well. We haven’t talked about this idea for a while, so as a reminder:

  • Harvard Business School professor Clayton Christensen’s original disruption paradigm describes a business that starts life addressing the low end of a market.

  • To be profitable competing in this segment, the company has a unique edge. Think Japanese “lean manufacturing” in the auto industry or Amazon’s original business of selling books on the Internet. Both were novel for their time and gave a definable competitive/financial advantage.

  • Since these new entrants are only attacking the low end of a market, established competitors cede ground since they don’t make much money here anyway.

  • Over time, the new company moves upscale using the same competitive advantage. Again, established companies retreat since they still have the high end to keep them profitable.

  • Eventually, the upstarts become the status quo as the old guard dies and the whole cycle begins anew.

We bring all this up because Amazon’s news today that it is launching a secured credit card for individuals with bad/no credit history fits this pattern better than a lot of things that pass for “disruption” these days. A few details:

  • The underbanked/unbanked/low credit score cohort clearly fits the definition of the “low end” of the market for financial services. While community banking laws mean the bad-old-days of redlining are largely past, there is still a sizable community of Americans with little access to the financial products most of us take for granted.

  • Amazon Credit Builder is the name of the company’s new secured credit card offering. A customer deposits $100 – $1,000 with Amazon’s affiliated bank (mailing a check/money order is an option) and receives a credit card with a line of credit of equal amount.

  • Repayment is fixed at 6, 12, or 24 months, customers can track their credit score online and also see how timely repayment is improving their FICO score on a monthly basis.

  • Clients of Amazon Credit Builder can upgrade to the company’s standard credit card offerings in as little as 7 months provided they make timely payments. At that point their security deposit is refunded in full.

  • The only downside (but it’s a lulu)…. An annual percentage rate of 28.24%.

Our thought: Amazon is famous for only addressing large markets but often starting small and this product seems to fit both characteristics. If anyone has the technology (and lack of branch infrastructure) to make a profitable go of it at the low end of consumer banking, it is Amazon.

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2wPclOh Tyler Durden

Trader: “Stocks Won’t Stay Bid On Bad News Just Because The Fed Cuts 25bps”

With The Dow on course for its longest win streak in 13 months, and Treasury yields refusing to rise, the market appears convinced that The Fed will acquiesce to its needs.

But, as former fund manager and FX trader Richard Breslow notes, as fear has turned to greed, with markets demanding ever more support from their central bank protectorate, the opportunity for dramatic disappointment abounds.

Via Bloomberg,

During a discussion about what the FOMC might say next week, an interesting point was made about the word “patient”.

When it was first used, it was part of the Committee’s move toward a more dovish policy stance. Now, given market pricing and less robust economic numbers, continuing its use is expected to be taken as hawkish. The market has the rate cut bit in its mouth and wants its central bankers to run with it. I can only imagine what futures traders would do with “transitory.”

In reality, patient is exactly what they should be. Promising to do what may become necessary is far more appropriate than effectively pre-committing to a move. If there is anything that has been learned, predicting events accurately is a lot harder than it looks. One central banker’s flip-flop is another’s staying agile.

There are so many different theories positing how the G-20 summit might turn out that, at this point, it’s all just a guessing game. Common sense would suggest some compromise would be in everyone’s best interest. But in this case, who knows? Politicians can be very base when catering to theirs.

And the argument that time is somehow of the essence because it takes time for policy changes to filter through to the economy rings hollow in a world where financial conditions are as important as the other two mandates. This being the case, monetary policy has to be reactive, not proactive. Which explains why the market insists on pricing in multiple cuts rather than just the much-hoped for “insurance cut”. Because if one is required, chances are the market will demand more. Equities won’t stay bid on bad news just because the Fed cut 25 basis points.

While we continue with the debate about how dire is the need for rate cuts, this morning the Small Business Optimism Index printed at its highest level of the year. With all eyes on whether the S&P 500 can surmount resistance which is just above 2900. In truth, if the Russell 2000 can play a little catch-up, all of the major indexes will be looking happy.

The dollar looks offered but DXY is holding well above support. Emerging market currency indexes are trying to press up against resistance levels that they have been struggling with. And WTI crude looks like it will be trapped between $55 and $50, until it isn’t
Which brings things around to rates, the driving force between the bulk of current narratives. Yields have their work cut out to stay still, but momentum to the downside has definitely petered out. Ten-year Treasuries getting back above their 2.21% breakdown level would certainly change the technical look. Or at least turn things back to a two-way conversation.

Even two-year yields have stabilized. Not at all insignificantly, they formed a double bottom low below 1.80% after the disappointing jobs report. Which raises the question, how much is too much?

Traders have been prudent to hedge the event risk in their portfolios. With the added benefit that paying up for bonds has paid off in its own right. And they are probably going to be loathe to cut out of those positions wholesale until they see how the trade fight plays out. And why would they? But while central banks need to stand at the ready and convince investors as well as themselves that they still have adequate tools to deal with trouble, it just wouldn’t pay for them to be overly preemptive. It’s a lot harder for them to stop out of a wrong decision.

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2Iajuzu Tyler Durden

Turkey Lashes Out At US Pressure Over Russian Missile Deal, Lira Slides

After two weeks of torrid gains with the market now expecting a dip in the country’s double-digit inflation, the Turkish lira is again lower on Tuesday, after Ankara lashed out at Washington, saying a U.S. House of Representatives’ resolution condemning Turkey’s purchase of Russian defense systems and urging potential sanctions was “unacceptably threatening.”

The resolution, introduced in May and entitled “Expressing concern for the United States-Turkey alliance”, was agreed in the House on Monday according to Reuters.  It urges Turkey to cancel the S-400 purchase and calls for sanctions if it accepts their delivery, which may come as soon as July. That would undermine the U.S.-led transatlantic defense alliance, according to the resolution.

A S-400 “Triumph” surface-to-air missile system

In response, Turkey’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement that its foreign policy and judicial system were being maligned by “unfair” and “unfounded” allegations in the resolution.

“It is unacceptable to take decisions which do not serve to increase mutual trust, to continue to keep the language of threats and sanctions on the agenda and to set various artificial deadlines,” it added.

On Monday, U.S. officials said the training of Turkish pilots on F-35 fighter jets had come to a faster-than-expected halt at an air base in Arizona, as Ankara’s involvement was wound down over the S-400 controversy.

President Erdogan’s government faces a balancing act in its ties with the West and Russia, with which it has close energy ties and is also cooperating in neighboring Syria. The United States has also been pressuring Turkey and other nations to isolate Iran, including blocking oil exports.

As has been thoroughly documented here and elsewhere, relations between the two NATO members have been strained on several fronts including Ankara’s plans to buy Russia’s S-400 air defense systems, the detention of U.S. consular staff in Turkey, and conflicting strategy over Syria and Iran which precipitated a crisis in Turkey’s economy in the summer of 2018, sparking runaway inflation and a crash in the lira.

The United States has claimed that Turkey’s acquisition of Russia’s S-400 air defenses poses a threat to Lockheed Martin Corp’s F-35 stealth fighters, which Turkey also plans to buy.

“We rarely see it in foreign affairs, but this is a black and white issue. There is no middle ground. Either Mr. Erdogan cancels the Russian deal, or he doesn’t,” Eliot Engel, chairman of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, said on the House floor on Monday. “There is no future for Turkey having both Russian weapons and American F-35s. There’s no third option.”

Regardless of the U.S. warnings, Turkey appeared to be moving ahead with the S-400 purchase. Erdogan said last week it was “out of the question” for Turkey to back away from its deal with Moscow. And so, with the two nations set on collision course in a repeat of last summer, the selling in the lira appears to have resumed, with the USdTRY jumping from 5.76 to as high as 5.82…

… amid trader concerns Trump may flex his tariff muscles again, this time in the direction of Ankara.

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2MEMVOi Tyler Durden

OPEC’s Struggle To Avoid $40 Oil

Authored by Nick Cunningham via OilPrice.com,

A few weeks ago, OPEC+ was mulling the possibility of exiting the production cut agreement because the oil market was at risk of over-tightening. Now Saudi Arabia is scrambling to extend the cuts and may even unilaterally lower its own production further in an effort to head off a price slide.

On Monday, officials from Saudi Arabia and Russia reportedly discussed a possible scenario in which oil prices crashed below $40 per barrel, a recognition that the market has rapidly deteriorated. They view that outcome as a possibility if they can’t agree on an extension. “Today there are big risks of oversupply,” Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said in Moscow after meeting with Saudi oil minister Khalid al-Falih. “We’ve agreed that we need to run a deeper analysis and to see how events unfold in June.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin seemed to fuel speculation of a rift in Vienna in comments to Interfax news last week.

“Of course Saudi Arabia wants oil prices to remain higher,” the Interfax news agency quoted Mr. Putin as saying. “But we have no such need due to the more diversified nature of the Russian economy.”

The Saudis, of course, are desperate to prevent such a downward spiral. “Both at the bilateral and the OPEC+ level, we work in order to take preventive steps so as not to allow that scenario to happen,” al-Falih said in Moscow. He is undoubtedly trying to convince Novak of the wisdom of extending the production cuts. Perhaps to sweeten the pot, Saudi Arabia is considering investments in “multiple” projects in Russia, including the Arctic LNG 2 gas project, a stake in Russian petrochemical company Sibur Holding, along with other projects in partnership with Gazprom and Rosneft, Bloomberg reports.

The outlook for the oil market has darkened rather quickly. Less than a month ago, the IEA predicted a rather significant supply deficit in the second quarter even as it acknowledged some cracks in demand. But since then things have seemingly taken a turn for the worse, with oil posting its worst month since the financial crisis.

A growing number of analysts are drawing up downbeat assessments for the oil market next year. “The balances for 2020 were already worrisome, and the downgrade in demand we are contemplating put them potentially in the ugly category,” Roger Diwan of IHS Markit Ltd. told Bloomberg. Notably, top analysts see a supply surplus next year even if output from Iran and Venezuela fails to rebound. For instance, S&P Global Platts, as of now, estimates a surplus of 400,000 bpd in 2020, while the EIA puts the glut at a more modest 100,000 bpd. IHS Markit sees a whopping 800,000-bpd surplus.

The reason is that demand is cratering and U.S. shale is still expected to grow. “There is growing evidence of a sharper-than-expected slowdown in demand,” said Martijn Rats, oil analyst at Morgan Stanley, according to Bloomberg. The U.S.-China trade war has dramatically increased concerns about an economic slowdown.

The global economy is decelerating, with manufacturing activity around the world slowing down, a sure sign of an economy hitting some bumps.

“You’ve suddenly got all sorts of countries around the world seeing their manufacturing indexes fall into contraction territory. That’s going to be bad for demand,” Bill O’Grady, chief market strategist at Confluence Investment Management, said in a Wall Street Journal interview.

But assuming OPEC+ decides to extend the production cuts, the group will go a long way in guarding against a more dramatic selloff, even if it requires ongoing sacrifice on their part. “The weak economic data and widening trade conflict have made for a gloomier demand outlook. In response, we have revised our third-quarter forecast for Brent down to $66 (previously $73),” Commerzbank wrote in a note. “We are leaving our year’s end forecast of $70 unchanged…This is because we are convinced that OPEC and Russia will do everything in their power to prevent an oversupply and to ensure higher prices.”

The bank noted that while Putin is skeptical of letting prices rise too far, and is generally satisfied with prices in their current range, he has also indicated that Russia and OPEC would make a joint decision. “This suggests that Russia will take part in a production cut agreement beyond mid-year,” Commerzbank concluded.

Saudi Arabia may go further. After the U.S. announced no new waivers for countries buying Iranian oil, there was speculation that Riyadh would decide to boost output, perhaps by as much as 400,000 or 500,000 bpd. But with the recent weakening of the market, that’s now off the table. Instead, Saudi Arabia trimmed output by 120,000 bpd in May from a month earlier. The Saudis “could potentially even take production lower,” Helima Croft of RBC Capital Markets told the WSJ.

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2wP8Ze9 Tyler Durden

Producer Price Growth Slumps To Weakest Since Jan 2017

Core Producer Price inflation has slowed for six straight months to +2.3% YoY but the headline (NSA) data slowed to just 1.8% YoY (notably below the +2.0% expectation).

This is the weakest headline Producer Price inflation print since Jan 2017

Final Demand Goods prices shrank 0.2% in May as Services prices rose 0.3%…

Notably, nearly 80 percent of the May advance in the index for final demand services is attributable to prices for guestroom rental, which jumped 10.1 percent.

This is a rec0ord surge in guestroom rental prices on a non-seasonally-adjusted basis…

The indexes for fuels and lubricants retailing, outpatient care (partial), inpatient care, portfolio management, and transportation of passengers (partial) also moved higher.

In contrast, margins for apparel, footwear, and accessories retailing declined 5.2 percent. The indexes for machinery, equipment, parts, and supplies wholesaling and for loan services (partial) also decreased   .

This headline print below the 2.0% Maginot Line, surely gives The Fed more ammo for its pre-crime “insurance cut”? However, the PPI (ex Food, Energy, and Trade Services) rose to +2.3% YoY.

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2KEykj4 Tyler Durden