BoJ Offers To Buy Unlimited Debt, Boosts POMO In Response To Surging Rates

Kuroda is losing kontrol…

After unexpectedly boosting its bond-buying in the 3-5Y segment of the JGB curve on Tuesday, as global bond yields break ever higher, it appears The Bank of Japan is realizing it is losing control of its yield curve and today unleashed a doublewhammy to stifle the bond bears…

Whammy 1 – BoJ offers to buy unlimited 10Y notes at 11bps.

Result – a 0.5bps drop in the JGB yield!!

 

Let’s hold back on the ‘mission accomplished’ celebration for now…

Whammy 2 – BoJ increasese its usual POMO to 450 billion yen from 410 billion in the 5Y and 10Y range of the curve.

Result: a very brief weakening of the JPY followed by a ‘policy error-like’ drop in USDJPY…

 

This is not the result Kuroda and his cronies were hoping for.

As Barclays’ rates strategist predicted, similar operations are likely in future if yields rise, warning that while the BOJ’s action can offer some relief to markets but the real cause of yield rise is higher U.S. yields, where prospects are unclear.

He is right, because the USDJPY is already back to unchanged. If and when the 10Y resumes blowing out, the BOJ will be forced to get even more aggressively involved as the spillover effects from rising US yields are finally appreciated by the rest of the world. 

via RSS http://ift.tt/2DWwwjy Tyler Durden

‘Leaker’ Comey Blasts GOP “Weasels & Liars” In Confusing Tweet

Not The Onion.

Former FBI Director and admitted document-leaker James Comey took to Twitter this afternoon to apparently confuse and condemn those who dare to cross his or his old establishment buddies’ paths.

 

In an apparent show of support for the current (and former) FBI leadership, who, among others, face alleged exposure from Nunes’ memo for their anti-Trump bias and abuse of FISA in surveiling Trump campaign officials, Comey tweeted the following ‘riddle’…

“All should appreciate the FBI speaking up,” Comey said Thursday in a tweet. “But take heart: American history shows that, in the long run, weasels and liars never hold the field, so long as good people stand up. Not a lot of schools or streets named for Joe McCarthy.”

We have a few questions, thoughts on the matter.

1) The FBI “speaking up”? Presumably refers to FBI Director Wray’s “grave concerns” about the memo’s contents (which would allegedly expose the secretive agency that he runs for possible corruption and bias). Where were the “speaking up” FBI when it came to Hillary’s emails? Did they “speak up” about high-ranking officials “insurance” policies against the democratically-elected President?

2) “Weasels and liars never hold the field” – well to be frank Mr.Comey, Democrats and Republicans have ‘held their field’ in Washington for decades skimming from the rest of America… and one other thing… is it a “weasel”-like act to leak documents to the press?

3) Referencing Joe McCarthy seems odd – is it not “all 17 intel agencies” and every Democrat that proclaims anyone not toeing the “Russians disrupted our Democracy” bullshit as a “puppet of putin” to be villified and ostricized and removed from social media and the internet as Russian co-conspirators or “useless idiots” in the biggest McCarthy-esque witch-hunt, blame-scaping ever?

We will just have to see what the memo says tomorrow, won’t we…?

via RSS http://ift.tt/2FCr9lS Tyler Durden

Chinese Liquidity Crunch Begins As Stocks Sink: Bankers Begging Friends For Deposits On WeChat

Via ‘Investing In Chinese Stocks’ blog,

Another cyclical slowdown in China looks to be underway

December’s FAI went negative yoy and now an anecdote pointing to another cash crunch in the banking system.

 

Every year ahead of Spring Festival (February 16 this year) cash gets tight, but during the prior tightening cycle from 2013-2015 the cash crunch almost became a quarterly event. There is no spike in SHIBOR as there was in 2014 yet, but there are other similarities. The yuan rose ahead of the crunch (it was in the middle of a bull market from 2010 to the start of 2014) and the first sign of the crunch came in the first quarter-end following the Taper Tantrum and U.S. interest rate spike. The yuan is rising again versus the dollar, the Fed began shrinking its balance sheet in October and U.S. interest rates have spiked.

The result: Begging for money in friend groups, Deposit war guns blazing!

JRJ.com: 朋友圈里“跪求”存款 揽存大战硝烟四起!

The annual deposit war is particularly fierce this year. The last day of January in the [WeChat] friend groups, bankers “beg” for deposits one after another.

“There are more than 20 banks looking, every one is asking for deposits.” a listed company’s small partner told reporters that he had been too busy to reply, however. The banker’s nickname is “Guixie.” [a combination of beg and thanks]

“Perhaps because the New Year approached, company payments are more numerous, bank account capital is less, bank competition for deposits is even more intense.” A banking source told reporters bluntly, these days are quite difficult.

“Early this year, due to the strong demand for credit, debt problems continue to simmer, more banks seek deposits, especially regulatory assessment, have the resources available.” Minsheng Bank Wang, director of Center for Financial Research Fellow a peak, told reporters that the banking system liabilities is difficult, debt problem has been going on for some time, mainly due to foreign exchange increment is not enough, shadow banking is inhibited. In 2017, the banking system credit growth significantly faster than deposit growth, resulting in rising loan-deposit ratio, sounding the alarm over the assets and liabilities, liquidity management pressures.

On the one hand, the news suggests credit growth was solid in January, but is also suggests the financial system is hitting some hard limits as credit growth outpaces deposits. The highlighted portion confirms Jeffrey Snider’s description of the current state of affairs as a “dollar” or eurodollar problem. The Chinese banking system is starved for dollars.

Alhambra: The Chinese Appear To Be Rushed

While the Western world was off for Christmas and New Year’s, the Chinese appeared to have taken advantage of what was a pretty clear buildup of “dollars” in Hong Kong. Going back to early November, HKD had resumed its downward trend indicative of (strained) funding moving again in that direction (if it was more normal funding, HKD wouldn’t move let alone as much as it has). China’s currency, however, was curiously restrained during that time.

No more. Since the middle of last week, CNY has been sharply higher. All those “dollar” balances that were surely sitting in Hong Kong perhaps just waiting for year-end were moved almost all at once.

Why the rush?

Maybe there were some government concerns for those end-of-year activities in eurodollar markets that were clearly pushed askew by what’s going on over there across the Pacific. I’m not aware of any official deadlines or regulatory requirements that would have condensed the “dollar” flow into such a tight calendar space. It looks instead to have been related to market conditions, particularly since CNY wasn’t the only big mover during that time.

The news at the end of January tells us whatever stress sent the Chinese rushing at year end is still pressuring the financial system.

The picture from 50,000 ft shows that despite a slowdown in M2 growth:

 

The Chinese financial system’s growth is still outstripping the implicit reserves backing it:

 

The above chart doesn’t matter until it does, such as in August 2015 when the PBoC threw in towel and allowed the yuan to devalue. This time around, the dollar is weakening and the yuan is rising along with the euro, further weakening the yuan’s long-term position. China will be forced to devalue sooner than last time, when it took 18 months from the problem emerging in early 2014 to devaluation.

As for the rising yuan, Chinese exporters are already squealing.

SCMP: In China, yuan’s rapid gains make exporters uneasy as US dollar weakens

Its rapid gains are instead fuelling unease and fears over the negative impact on Chinese exporters, and it has even fanned theories that China is falling victim to a new type of “currency war” started by the US to cut the trade imbalance.

The yuan is a problem at USDCNY 6.3 and USDCNY 6.9 because China has a massive credit bubble.

At one end, the deflationary impact of a rising yuan and at the other, the risk of a major devaluation.

In the middle is the Goldilocks exchange rate, not to strong to trigger debt default, not to weak to trigger outflows.

USDCNY 6.3 in the current environment is too strong. The PBoC is also pinned in this range. Loosen capital controls to let the yuan weaken, exacerbate the liquidity crunch in the banking system and risk uncontrolled depreciation/capital flight. Let the yuan strengthen and risk a credit crisis. Further reverse yuan internationalization and set the yuan price, but risk an economic response from the United States.

Takeaway

China bought two years with its 2016 reflation, aborting a global slowdown stemming from its last decision to slow credit growth. This growth cycle has completed and is turning down again.

The fallout from the prior slowdown started showing up after Spring Festival in 2014. From February 23, 2014: China Real Estate Rage Is Back; Ghost Cities Everywhere; Offshore Yuan Plunges; Talk of Falling Real Estate Prices Across China. Regarding the dip in the yuan, I wrote:

If this keeps up, we may soon hear about a dollar shortage in China, which happened last time the yuan spiked. Also, after the 2011 drop, forex reserves fell.

It will only take a small marginal change in the economic trends to create a hurricane force in the financial markets. Once the market moves the other way, the shift will be swift and brutal because everyone is on the other side of the trade. How many people out there have puts on the yuan and expect China’s reserves to start falling?

If history rhymes, there’s going to be some significant negative news out of China in March. If that happens, the clock will start ticking on the next global deflationary wave.

The conventional wisdom about equities, interest rates, inflation and emerging markets is wrong again, just as it was in 2011 and 2014.

via RSS http://ift.tt/2BMI8zD Tyler Durden

Rick Gates Lawyers Suddenly Withdraw, Leaving Watergate Attorney Known For Plea Deals

Three attorneys representing Rick Gates have filed a motion to immediately withdraw as council for the former Donald Trump campaign aide, leaving recently hired white-collar attorney Tom Green – senior counsel with the Sidley Austin law firm.

a
Rick Gates and attorney Shanlon Wu (center) | Chip Somodevilla/Getty

Green was quietly added to Gates’ case last week, signaling a shift in strategy for the former Trump campaign aide who pleaded not guilty in October to eight counts of money laundering and failing to register foreign lobbying and other business.

Gates’ longtime business partner, Paul Manafort, pleaded not guilty to nine counts in the same case. Manafort, Trump’s short-lived campaign manager, was fired 48 hours after Donald Trump’s first classified intelligence report which may have contained information regarding ongoing investigations.

a

Following the motion to withdraw by lawyers Shanlon Wu, Walter Mack and Annemarie McAvoy, a team of Sidley Austin attorneys reportedly spent the afternoon inside Robert Mueller’s office building – fueling specualtion that Gates may change his not-guilty plea as part of a plea bargain. 

An attorney briefed on the matter told ZeroHedge that Sidley Austin is “fairly anti-Trump liberal, but not as liberal as Perkins & Coie or Wilmer Hale in D.C.” – the former of which was used by Hillary Clinton and the DNC to pay opposition research firm Fusion GPS for the infamous “Trump-Russia” dossier. 

Don’t forget Podesta

While it appears that Gates may be negotiating some sort of deal with Mueller’s team, it should be noted that the special counsel’s probe reportedly set its sights on lobbyist Tony Podesta and his now-defunct firm, the Podesta Group, in connection with the Russia investigation, three sources told NBC News in late October 2017. Podesta left the Podesta Group shortly after Manafort’s indictment. 

The firm, co-founded by Hillary Clinton’s campaign manager John Podesta, was subpoenaed in late August along with three other public relations firms who worked with former Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort during a 2012-2014 lobbying effort for a pro-Ukraine think tank – the European Centre for a Modern Ukraine (ECMU) – tied to former Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych.

Yanukovych fled from Ukraine to Russia after he was unseated in a 2014 coup.

Two of the subpoenaed firms include Paul Manafort’s Mercury, LLC and the Podesta Group, founded by John and Tony Podesta and operated by the latter.

Manafort’s firm earned $17 million between 2012 – 2014 consulting for Yanukovych’s centrist, pro-Russia ‘Party of Regions.’ During the same period, Manafort oversaw a lobbying campaign for the pro-Russia “Centre for a Modern Ukraine,” a Brussels based think tank linked to Yanukovych which was pushing for Ukraine’s entry into the European Union.

The Podesta group, operating under Manafort, earned over $1.2 million as part of that effort.

In a statement to NBC, a spokesman for the Podesta Group said the firm “is cooperating fully with the Special Counsel’s office and has taken every possible step to provide documentation that confirms timely compliance. In all of our client engagements, the Podesta Group conducts due diligence and consults with appropriate legal experts to ensure compliance with disclosure regulations at all times — and we did so in this case.”

Podesta Group and Russia

While Robert Mueller’s investigation is primarily focused on the Trump campaign – having conducted a surprise raid on Paul Manafort’s home in July, it will be interesting to see if the Special Counsel chooses to delve into the bevy of documented ties between the the Podesta brothers and Russia.

For example, Russia’s Kremlin-owned Sberbank paid the Podesta group $170,000 over a 6 month period to lobby against 2014 economic sanctions by the Obama administration:

Podesta’s efforts were a key part of under-the-radar lobbying during the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign led mainly by veteran Democratic strategists to remove sanctions against Sberbank and VTB Capital, Russia’s second largest bank.

The two Russian banks spent more than $700,000 in 2016 on Washington lobbyists as they sought to end the U.S. sanctions, according to Senate lobbying disclosure forms and documents filed with the Department of Justice.

The Podesta Group charged Sberbank $20,000 per month, plus expenses, on a contract from March through September 2016. –Daily Caller

 In March of last year it was revealed that the Podesta group forgot to register as a “Foreign Agent” for their work with Sberbank.

Uranium One

The Podesta group also earned $180,000 lobbying for Russian-owned mining company Uranium One during the same period that the Clinton Foundation was receiving millions from UrAsia / U1 interests.

Last week, two bombshell reports published by The Hill revealed that the FBI – headed by Robert Mueller at the time – discovered that “Russian nuclear officials had routed millions of dollars to the U.S. designed to benefit former President Bill Clinton’s charitable foundation during the time Secretary of State Hillary Clinton served on a government body that provided a favorable decision to Moscow” – a deal which would grant the Kremlin control over 20 percent of America’s uranium supply, as detailed by author Peter Schweitzer’s book Clinton Cash and the New York Times in 2015.

After Russia took control of the Uranium rights, the Podesta Group received $180,000 to lobby for Uranium One during the same period that the Clinton Foundation was receiving millions from U1 interests, and after Russia took majority ownership in the “20 percent” deal (source – you have to add up the years).

the Podesta Group received $180,000 to lobby for Uranium One during the same period that the Clinton Foundation was receiving millions from U1 interests, and after Russia took majority ownership in the “20 percent” deal (source – you have to add up the years).

Podesta Insider Spills

In October of last year, a former executive of the Podesta Group who has been extensively interviewed by Mueller’s team, contacted Fox News host Tucker Carlson to reveal several key insights regarding Podesta and Manafort’s operation.

Key highlights: 

  • Lobbyist and temporary Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort is at the center of the Russia probe – however the scope of the investigation has broadened to include his activities prior to the 2016 election.
  • Manafort worked with the Podesta Group since at least 2011 on behalf of Russian interests, and was at the Podesta Group offices “all the time, at least once a month,” peddling Russian influence through a shell group called the European Centre for a Modern Ukraine (ECMU).
  • Manafort brought a “parade” of Russian oligarchs to congress for meetings with members and their staffs, however, the Russia’s “central effort” was the Obama Administration.
  • In 2013, John Podesta recommended that Tony hire David Adams, Hillary Clinton’s chief adviser at the State Department, giving them a “direct liaison” between the group’s Russian clients and Hillary Clinton’s State Department.
  • In late 2013 or early 2014, Tony Podesta and a representative for the Clinton Foundation met to discuss how to help Uranium One – the Russian owned company that controls 20 percent of American Uranium Production – and whose board members gave over $100 million to the Clinton Foundation.
  • Tony Podesta was basically part of the Clinton Foundation.”
  • Believing she would win the 2016 election, Russia considered the Podesta Group’s connection to Hillary highly valuable.
  • Podesta Group is a nebulous organization with no board oversight and all financial decisions made by Tony Podesta. Carlson’s source said payments and kickbacks could be hard for investigators to trace, describing it as a “highly secret treasure trove.” One employee’s only official job was to manage Tony Podesta’s art collection, which could be used to conceal financial transactions.

via RSS http://ift.tt/2GEgiJl Tyler Durden

New Strzok/Page Texts Discuss Evading “Security/Monitoring Issues,” Legal Discovery

A new batch of text messages between anti-Trump FBI officials Peter Strzok and Lisa Page show that they wanted to “get around” technologically cumbersome data retention requirements to retain text messages.

aa

The August 2016 messages discuss “piloting” a new program to “get around our security/monitoring issues,” noting that “Dd” (thought to be Deputy Director Andrew McCabe) “had a terrible time with his phone [redacted] which made him concerned for our folks all over the place.” 

In a later portion of the exchange, Strzok notes that if he wanted to copy or take classified information, he “sure as hell” wouldn’t do it on his FBI issued phone. 

The texts, detailed in a Wednesday letter from HSGAC Chairman Sen. Ron Johnson, read in part: 

Ms. Page:       Have a meeting with turgal about getting iphone in a day or so

Mr. Strzok:    Oh hot damn.  I’m happy to pilot that . . . We get around our security/monitoring issues?

Ms. Page:       No, he’s proposing that we just stop following them.  Apparently the requirement to capture texts came from omb, but we’re the only org (I’m told) who is following that rule.  His point is, if no one else is doing it why should we.

Ms. Page:       Helps that Dd had a terrible time with his phone [redacted] which made him concerned for our folks all over the place.

Ms. Page:       These phones suck as much as they do because of the program we use to capture texts, full stop. 

Mr. Strzok:    No doubt. 

Mr. Strzok:    I’m not convinced short of OPR, that text capture capability really deters anything. 

Mr. Strzok:    If I want to copy/take classified, I’m sure as hell not going to do it on this phone. 

Ms. Page:      I thought it was more from a discovery perspective. 

Mr. Strzok:    Probably.  So just make a rule no texts of a discoverable nature.  Like you said, what are CBP, DEA, others doing? 

Sen. Johnson requests “additional communications including texts, emails, memos, and voicemails relating to the FBI’s investigation of former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and candidates for the 2016 presidential election for 16 F.B.I. and DOJ officials.” 

The letter also points to Deputy Director Andrew McCabe’s sudden resignation following a meeting with FBI Director Christopher Wray, who reportedly expressed concerns over the findings of FBI internal watchdog, Inspector General Michael Horowitz. 

Johnson’s letter then requests answers to several questions along with requests for documents and communications from a variety of individuals. 

On January 29, 2017 FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe reportedly resigned following “a private meeting with FBI Director Christopher A. Wray during which Wray expressed concern about the findings of an investigation by the Justice Department’s Inspector General.”

Accordingly, I respectfully request that the Department produce all text messages newly recovered sent or received by Peter Strzok and Lisa Page for the period December 14, 2016, to May 17, 2017.  In addition, to ensure the Committee has a complete understanding of the FBI’s investigation, I respectfully request the following information and material: 

1. Please produce all documents and communications, including but not limited to emails, memoranda, notes, text messages, iPhone instant messages, and voicemails, for the period January 1, 2015, to the present referring or relating to the FBI’s Midyear Exam investigation, the presence of classified information on Secretary of State Clinton’s private email server, or candidates for the 2016 presidential election for the following custodians:

    1. James Comey;
    2. James Rybicki;
    3. Andrew McCabe;
    4. John Giaclone
    5. James Turgal;
    6. David Bowdich;
    7. Jonathan Moffa;
    8. Peter Strzok;
    9. Lisa Page;
    10. Trisha Anderson;
    11. E.W. Priestap;
    12. George Toscas;
    13. Randy Coleman;
    14. Brian Brooks;
    15. Michael Kortan; and
    16. James Baker.

2. Please explain whether any of the individuals identified in question 1 have been affected by the apparent Samsung device software glitch that lost the text messages of Mr. Strzok and Ms. Page. 

3. Please provide the calendars of the individuals named in question 1 from January 1, 2015 to the present.  

4. Please explain how and when the Department of Justice became aware that the FBI failed to retain communications of FBI employees between approximately December 14, 2016 and May 17, 2017. 

5. Has the FBI experienced similar failures to retain communications on other employee issued-devices? 

6. Did the FBI issue iPhones for any individual on the midyear exam team?  Please explain.

7. Please provide the email(s) Secretary Clinton sent President Obama while she was located in the “territory of a sophisticated adversary.”  

Strzok was removed from Robert Mueller’s probe after the DOJ’s Inspector General Michael Horowitz discovered the trove of anti-Trump / pro-Clinton text messages between the two – who were having an extramarital affair. Stzok was shuffled into the HR department – where “problem employees” go, and Page is also still employed by the FBI.

aa

via RSS http://ift.tt/2GD3ZNs Tyler Durden

Big Banks Punish Savers With Pathetic Interest Rates Despite Fed Hikes

Big banks such as JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup and Bank of America have been shafting depositors with terrible interest rates – refusing to keep pace with the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes.


That’s why he is richer than you .

JPMorgan, for example, has only raised its average deposit rate by 0.21 of a percentage point, despite the Federal Reserve raising rates by 1.25% over the same period – effectively punishing customers by locking them into historically low rates required to bail out the same banks which caused the financial crisis a decade ago.

The trend is so remarkable that analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., a rival Wall Street firm with a comparatively tiny banking franchise, published a report on the matter earlier this month, noting that rates on savings were “virtually untouched” in 2017, even as banks charged fatter payments on loans and other assets whose rates jumped along with the Fed’s increases.

Consequently, a decade after the 2008 crisis, retirees and others who shun stocks and choose less volatile, government-insured savings accounts at big banks are still getting meager returns. –TheStreet

“Some of the big banks literally have not moved deposit yields higher at any time during this cycle of Fed rate hikes,” said Greg McBride, the chief financial analyst at BankRate.com, which tracks the savings and lending industry.

In fact, none of the Fed’s three rate hikes noted by Goldman were passed on to savers at JPMorgan, Bank of America and Wells Fargo, with Citigroup passing along just 4% of the rate increases, or 0.03 of a percentage point. 

Goldman’s takeaway? Shareholders in big U.S. banks are “not to worry,” Goldman wrote in the Jan. 8 reports. “Large banks are still raising cheap funds.”

To review; Home lenders and “too big to fail” banks conspired with lawmakers to remove the Glass Steagall act, allowing banks to commingle investment and retail banking operations and making them “too big to fail.” Said banks then went on a drunken lending spree as politicians like Barney Frank pushed affirmative-action lending practices, while insisting that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were in great shape. This was very disrespectful to the stability of America’s financial institutions. 

Of course, in order to keep banks alive, the Fed had to use trillions of taxpayer dollars  and drop it’s target rate to a historically low zero percent to avoid what Ben Bernanke and Hank Paulson warned Congress was sure collapse were they not to act quickly. 

And now – the same banks which created the crisis and then took taxpayer money during the crisis, refuses to reward savers now that the crisis is “over” (until it’s not) – driving up profits as they use the cheap deposits to fund loans written at the new, fed-hiked rates.

Partly as a result, JPMorgan’s net interest income – the difference between what it makes on loans and other interest-earning assets and what it pays out on deposits and other borrowings – jumped to $50.1 billion in 2017 or a 15% increase from 2015 levels.

For “retail, checking and core savings, there’s been little to no movement” on deposit rates, Marianne Lake, JPMorgan’s chief financial officer, confirmed to bank-stock analysts this month on a conference call.

She signaled that regular depositors might again see little improvement in 2018 on their savings rate, at least relative to the Fed’s expected rate increases of 0.5 percentage point to 1 percentage point.

“My expectation, just given where we are, in the absolute level of rates, is that on the retail space, we would still see a lot of discipline,” Lake told the analysts. –TheStreet

Smaller banks are the place to be

According to BankRate’s McBrde, higher deposit rates can be found at smaller banks and online financial institutions, which have been forced to pay higher rates to attract deposits. “They don’t have a branch on every corner, ATMs everywhere and their name on the stadium,” said McBride, adding “You’re not going to be able to out-market the big banks, so you pay a higher rate on deposits and compete that way.”

According to Bankrate, the top four savings rates can be found at CIT Bank, Goldman Sachs’ Marcus Bank (which wrote the analysis referenced in this article), American Express, and Synchrony Bank – the largest provider of private label credit cards in the US to brands such as Amazon, Walmart, Lowe’s, and whose NPLs have been rising at a dangerously fast rate recently. 

Meanwhile, Wells Fargo and Bank of America clock in near the bottom of the list. 

Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan justifies his bank’s crappy deposit rates by pointing to all of the wonderful services and conveniences offered by their savings accounts, which apparently can’t be found elsewhere. Moynihan also points to an increase in average checking account balances – suggesting that savers are more interested in safety than return on capital. 

Citigroup CFO John Gerspach said that the low deposit rates are a “reflection of the state of competition” between banks. “Given deposit rates have been largely unchanged following the December 2017 hike, strong industry deposit growth suggests larger banks continue to have little problem raising cheap funds,” wrote the Goldman analysts. 

In previous periods, top-yielding savings accounts kept pace with the Fed’s increases, and would anticipate rate hikes by competitively raising their own payouts in advance according to McBride. Now, the top payers have a correlation with the fed of around 0.5, and the rates are dismal. 

Of course, when the much talked about volatility rears its head in 2018 and funds flow out of risk assets and into the “safety” of cash, any hopes savers had of higher rates on their cash will be sadly disappointed, especially if said rotation is followed by QE X and NIRP, in which case Americans may soon pay their bank for the privilege of letting them park their savings.

via RSS http://ift.tt/2nxGJHS Tyler Durden

It’s Baaaaack: The Illinois “Privilege Tax” Bill!

Authored by Mark Glennon via WirePoints.com,

Undeterred by national ridicule heaped on Illinois last year, statehouse Democrats are pushing again for passage of the “privilege tax” on investment managers.

 

HB 4293 would impose a 20% tax, in addition to all other taxes, on fees that are based on capital gains. Hedge funds, private equity and venture capital would all be hit – for as long as it took them to leave, that is.

It would push all those firms out immediately and decimate the financial and tech communities, which are among the few sectors thriving in Illinois.

Just by seriously considering the bill, Illinois is sending a plain message to the financial community: Leave. Expect this topic to earn national scorn once again.

And, yes, the bill appears to be serious. A parallel bill already passed in in the Illinois Senate last year, SB 1719. It was sponsored by Senator Dan Biss (D-Evanston), who is also a genuine contender for governor. The new house bill is sponsored by Emanuel Chris Welch (D-Hillside).

As Kristina Rasmussen from The Illinois Policy Institute noted last year:

Railing against supposed “fat cats” might satisfy progressive groups, but lawmakers shouldn’t be in the business of hounding the people who help connect capital with new opportunities for growth. Dynamic entrepreneurship is what makes America great.

Rather than focus on how to make everyone miserable together, policy makers should work to increase their states’ competitiveness. A start would be to rally against this proposed privilege tax and instead fix the spiraling pension costs and outdated labor rules that are dragging Illinois and other blue states down.

What’s the maximum safe dosage for antidepressants?

via RSS http://ift.tt/2BNeWZ2 Tyler Durden

‘Largest-Ever’ Security Breach Hits Aussie Government As Media Dumps Top-Secret Files

The Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) has obtained a treasure trove of top-secret and highly classified files, which it has dumped in a report titled: “The Cabinet files,” triggering the largest-ever breach of cabinet security in Australian history.

Top-secret documents relating to national security, immigration, welfare, communications and even controversial racial discrimination laws, which spans at least five administrations, somehow ended up at a second-hand shop in Canberra, Capital of Australia.

The ABC says the highly classified documents were locked in two large filing cabinets at a furniture clearinghouse store in Canberra without keys. An unidentifiable individual purchased the filing cabinets for a steep discount and then drilled out the locks to only discover thousands of files revealing the inner workings of government. All files are classified, some as “top-secret” or “AUSTEO,” which means government eyes only.

It is hard to comprehend the thought process here: Government officials misplaced keys to two large filing cabinets in the Parliment House, then decide to dispose of the cabinets after the keys went missing.

ABC reiterates that “no-one broke any laws” in this case, and it will be protecting all confidential sources who handed over the top- secret documents.

The embarrassing revelations for the government were reported on Wednesday by the ABC, after several days of leaks surfaced in media exposing unpopular government decisions from prior administrations in the 2013 through 2014 timeframe.

Here is a quick summary of the leaks: 

  • The Australian Federal Police (AFP) lost hundreds of national security files (separate from ABC leak).
  • John Howard’s National Security Committee (NSC) gave serious consideration to removing an individual’s unfettered right to remain silent when questioned by police.
  • Andrew Bolt consulted on changes to section 18C of the Racial Discrimination Act was consulted when the federal government moved to change it, according to the draft legislation contained in The Cabinet Files.
  • NBN Co’s secret strategy for negotiating with potential investors reveals the initial lofty ambitions for the project Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has since labeled a “calamitous train wreck”.
  • The office of the new prime minister, Tony Abbott, was notified of the security breach in October 2013.
  • Kevin Rudd, Julia Gillard and two senior Labor ministers were warned about “critical risks” of the home insulation scheme before the deaths of four young installers, according to a report in The Cabinet Files.
  • Scott Morrison agreed his department should intervene in ASIO security checks to try to prevent asylum seekers from being granted permanent protection visas.
  • Tony Abbott’s “razor gang” considered banning anyone under 30 from accessing income support in a radical proposal ahead of the 2014 budget.

Rory Medcalf, head of the Australian National University’s National Security College, described the top-secret documents as “very weird and embarrassing” from a national security and political perspective.

Metcalf said Australia’s allies, including the United States, should be concerned about the security breach, but should not be overly concerned.

“This is not catastrophically damaging for national security in the sense that that something like the Snowden revelations must have been,” he added, referring to the former U.S. National Security Agency (NSA) contractor Edward Snowden.

On Wednesday, following the announcements of the security breach, the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet advised an immediate investigation would be conducted.

via RSS http://ift.tt/2nxLFgb Tyler Durden

FISA Frivolity: FBI Warns Memo Could Undermine Faith In Massive, Unaccountable Secret Agencies

With the moment of truth – over-hyped dud or Democratic-establishment-crushing dream – looming in less than 24 hours, the headlines, finger-pointing, pettiness, and back-stabbing has reached 11 on the Spinal Tap amplifier of debacle… to the point where some humor in this FISA farce may help everyone get through the weekend.

The following is the latest to cross the wires…

Stressing that such an action would be highly reckless, FBI Director Christopher Wray warned Thursday that releasing the “Nunes Memo” could potentially undermine faith in the massive, unaccountable government secret agencies of the United States.

“Making this memo public will almost certainly impede our ability to conduct clandestine activities operating outside any legal or judicial system on an international scale,” said Wray, noting that it was essential that mutual trust exist between the American people and the vast, mysterious cabal given free rein to use any tactics necessary to conduct surveillance on U.S. citizens or subvert religious and political groups.

“If we take away the people’s faith in this shadowy monolith exempt from any consequences, all that’s left is an extensive network of rogue, unelected intelligence officers carrying out extrajudicial missions for a variety of subjective, and occasionally personal, reasons.”

At press time, Wray confirmed the massive, unaccountable government secret agencies were unaware of any wrongdoing for violating constitutional rights.

 

…Yes, The Onion.

via RSS http://ift.tt/2GAoJFz Tyler Durden

US Auto Sales Slump In January As Car-Buyers ‘Turn Japanese’

2018 started off with a disappointment for the auto industry with total sales at 17.07mm SAAR (missing expectations and down from 17.76mm in Dec).

Domestic auto sales dropped notably to 13.10mm in January – that is the biggest Dec-to-Jan drop since 2010…

 

US automakers suffered the most (Ford sales -6.3%) but Japanese makers surged (Toyota, Nissan up double-figures).

 

As Bloomberg reports, General Motors, Ford, and Fiat Chrysler all posted U.S. sales that fell short of analysts’ estimates for last month, as demand plunged for domestic sedans including the Chevrolet Cruze and Ford Fusion. Toyota Motor, and Nissan Motor, meanwhile, boosted deliveries thanks to RAV4 and Rogue crossover models.

The Detroit Three are coming off the first annual sales drop in their home market since the recession and are having a harder time coping with consumers abandoning passenger cars. Some automakers also may have endured a bit of a hangover — the industry ended 2017 with its best showings of the year, thanks in part to heavy discounting.

“This is a bumpier start to the year than we expected,” Jeff Schuster, an analyst with LMC Automotive, said by phone. “Payback plays a role here after the robust fourth quarter of last year and the heightened level of incentives.”

To be sure, January wasn’t a slam dunk for the Japanese automakers. Honda reported a surprise decline. And Barclays Plc analysts who predicted the big jump for Toyota said in an email that the company boosted sales to fleets during the month.

About 29 percent of Nissan’s U.S. deliveries were to fleet customers — including its own dealers — during the first 11 months of last year, according to Autotrader.

“It is safe to assume that Nissan will still rely heavily on rental sales to start 2018 to gain market share,” said Zohaib Rahim, an analyst for the car-shopping website.

And there’s a downside to automakers having managed to keep sales more or less steady: use of heavy discounts.

“In the face of very high consumer confidence, low interest rates, low gas prices, longer and longer loan terms, we’re still seeing the pedal through the floorboards on incentives,” said Mark Wakefield, head of the auto practice at consultant AlixPartners. “You’re training consumers to look for the deal.”

via RSS http://ift.tt/2rXlipp Tyler Durden