news – Page 26426

Another BTFD Week Begins

Following last week’s last two day panic buying driven not by data (since in the US it has been delayed until late October and November, and elsewhere in the world it is just getting worse) but by the catalyst that the US isn’t going to default (yes, that’s all that is needed to push the S&P to all time highs) and just hopes that the tapering – that horrifying prospect of the Fed reducing its monthly monetization by $15 billion from $85 to $70 billion in line with the decline in the US deficit – will be delayed until March or June 2014 because, you see, the Fed isn’t sure how the economy is doing, it makes no sense to even comment on the market. Squeezes, momentum ignitions, rumors about what Messers Bernanke and Yellen had for breakfast, Goldman’s 2015 S&P forecast of 2100: that’s the lunacy that passes for market moving factors. News, and reality, have long since been put in the dust. Just keep an eye on flashing read headlines, and try to buy (remember: anyone caught selling by the NSA is guaranteed a lifetime of annual IRS audits) ahead of the algos. That’s what Bernanke’s centrally-planned “market” has devolved to.

Overnight news bulletin from BBG and Ran:

With the government now reopen, attention will turn to the numerous data releases that were delayed but will now take place over the next two weeks, including the jobs report which is due on Tuesday.
Fed’s Evans (voter, dove) said there has not been enough positive information to taper this month.
As a guide, of the 80 S&P 500 companies that have reported Q3 results so far, 70% of those have topped analysts’ EPS expectations whilst only 53% of those have beaten sales forecasts.
Treasuries steady, 10Y yield holding near July lows; Sept. nonfarm payrolls due tomorrow (est. 180k, unemployment rate 7.3%) as U.S. eco reports resume with government reopening.
Japan’s exports rose 11.5% in Sept., less than forecast, imports rose 16.5% to leave trade deficit at JPY932.1b, a 15th straight shortfall in data back to 1979
Draghi challenged rules that would bar banks from accessing public aid unless they forced losses on junior bondholders, a central building block of EU protocols for handling struggling banks
London house prices rose at an unsustainable rate in October as demand from overseas investors added pressure to a market with an already small supply of properties, according to Rightmove Plc
BOE’s Ben Broadbent said officials will only consider an interest-rate increase once the recovery is secure, with inflation unlikely to prompt monetary tightening earlier than they have signaled
FHFA is seeking at least $6b from Bank of America Corp. to settle civil claims the firm sold faulty mortgage bonds to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, according to a person with direct knowledge of the discussions
JPMorgan reached a tentative agreement to pay a record $13b to end civil claims over its sales of mortgage bonds, a deal that won’t absolve the bank of potential criminal liability
Germany’s Social Democrats ratified their leaders’ decision to enter negotiations on joining Merkel as junior partners in a “grand coalition” between the country’s two largest parties
The Obama administration, admitting the health insurance exchange has failed to meet expectations, is asking a group of the “best and brightest,” including U.S. technology chief Todd Y. Park, to bring the site up to speed
Sovereign yields mostly higher, EU peripheral spreads narrow. Nikkei gains 0.9%, leading Asian markets higher, European stocks mixed; S&P 500 futures gain. WTI crude falls; copper and gold gain

Market Re-Cap from RanSquawk

Stocks got off to a cautious start this week as market participants positioned for the release of the delayed jobs report from the BLS for the month of September on Tuesday. As a result, stocks traded broadly lower in Europe, with credit spreads widening and financials under performing. Despite the lacklustre performance by stocks, which came in spite of consensus beating earnings releases by Philips and SAP, Bunds traded steady, with money
market rates also little changed compared to Friday’s levels. At the same time, both EUR/CHF and USD/JPY remained bid, underpinning the view that uncertainty over the looming macroeconomic risk events was the main driver behind the cautious sentiment. Apart from digesting a slew of macroeconomic releases, market participants will keenly awaiting further earnings updates from the likes of McDonald’s, Microsoft, Caterpillar, Amazon this week.

Asian Headlines

Japanese Trade Balance (JPY) (Sep) M/M -932.1bln vs. Exp. -918.6bln (Prev. -960.3bln, Rev. -962.8bln)
Japan has posted a trade deficit for the 15th month in a row in September as a weak JPY pushed up import costs. Of note,
Japan’s imports have grown at a faster rate than its exports in all but one of the past 11 months.

China’s State Council says that China Q3 growth is stable and the annual growth target can be met.

EU & UK Headlines

The German finance ministry said the German economy is likely to grow above potential in H2 and that German companies are likely to expand production capacity.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel is considering a change to European Union treaties that could give the Brussels-based European Commission more rights over economic and fiscal policies BoE’s Broadbent said the BoE has room to raise interest rates as they would not hit borrowers and the primary objective is still inflation.

The outgoing deputy governor of the Bank of England, Paul Tucker, has said the UK’s economic recovery is evidence that quantitative easing is finally working. Although Tucker said it was still too early to say whether the economy had reached “escape velocity”

US Headlines

Fed’s Evans (voter, dove) said there has not been enough positive information to taper this month. Evans said raising rates when weak economy needs low rates could itself foster financial instability and low rates are needed until economy on a more stable path.

Equities

Stocks fell in Europe as market participants positioned for the looming risk events, with the highlight being the delayed jobs report from the BLS for the month of September. Financials underperformed in Europe, with credit spreads widening, as market participants remained cautious ahead of the looming jobs report from the US and also reacted to comments made by ECB President Draghi who warned the European Commission that imposing losses on banks’ bondholders in order to plug capital shortfalls could be destabilizing for many Eurozone economies. As a guide, of the 80 S&P 500 companies that have reported Q3 results so far, 70% of those have topped analysts’ EPS expectations whilst only 53% of those have beaten sales forecasts Of note, JP Morgan has reached a USD 13bln deal with US regulators to settle claims that it mis-sold bundles of toxic mortgage debt to investors in the build up to the financial crisis.

Despite the cautious sentiment as evidenced across the equity space in Europe, both USD/JPY and EUR/CHF traded higher, with 1m implied vol for USD/JPY also bid after falling to its lowest level since early Jan on Friday. Looking elsewhere, EUR/USD and GBP/USD traded steady, with EUR/GBP trading just below the 50DMA line.

Commodities

Heading into the North American open, both WTI and Brent crude futures are seen lower, with WTI crude futures below the psychologically important USD 100 mark for the first time since July on the back of a firmer Greenback.

OPEC’s Badri says OECD oil inventories levels are healthy and that there is little impact from North Africa oilsupply halts. He also added that oi
l at USD 100-110 is acceptable for producers and users. Market watchdog Sebi has allowed Mutual Funds to hold gold certificates issued by banks in the physical forms as well, in addition to the ones in demat form, for investments made in Gold Deposit Schemes.

Deutsche Bank rounds up the overnight event summary

After all the political noise of the past month, this week looks set to see macro and fundamental drivers come back with a bang as we (finally) have September’s non-farm payrolls on Tuesday. We also see more than a quarter of S&P500 companies report earnings whilst European earnings season gathers pace. On that note we provide our earnings season review at the end of today’s note. After last week’s impressive rallies it will be interesting to see how markets manage this change of focus and the persistent data flow. On top of this each data point will be analysed with an eye not only to what they mean for underlying economic strength but also for what each implies for the time schedule of Fed tapering. Before we look at the week ahead, we begin with the weekend news flow.

A court in Milan has banned Silvio Berlusconi from holding a public office for two years following his conviction for tax fraud. This isn’t quite the end of the matter however as the ban must be approved by parliament for it to take effect. This vote is expected within the next few weeks. If it is upheld Berlusconi would also lose his parliamentary immunity from prosecution in a host of other criminal cases as well as having to spend a year under house arrest or serving community service. Over in the US there are reports (FT) that JPMorgan has reached a tentative deal to pay $13bn to resolve investigations into its misselling of MBS according to people familiar with the matter. Whilst the deal is still being finalized it looks set to be a record amount for a single company however it is also hoped the deal (which resolves not only all federal but also civil mortgage litigation against the bank) will draw a line under the issue. Now onto the week ahead! On the macro data front the stand out release is Payroll Tuesday, with September’s delayed Non-Farm Payrolls. In terms of data accuracy the figure is expected to have been relatively unaffected by the government shutdown. Bloomberg consensus on the payroll change currently sits at +180K whilst DB is forecasting +170K. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 7.3%. The October Payrolls data release has also been delayed to November 8th. The BLS has a fully updated data release schedule available at http://www.bls.gov/bls/updated_release_schedule.htm.

Other key data in the US this week includes existing home sales today, Richmond Fed manufacturing survey on Tuesday (in addition to the aforementioned payrolls data), Markit’s flash US manufacturing PMI on Thursday and Friday will see the final release of UoM consumer confidence (October). At the time of writing the BEA and Census haven’t yet posted an updated release schedule to account for a back log of data ranging from construction spending and factory orders to wholesale and business inventories (for August) and retail sales and housing starts/permits (for September). Also it is not yet known whether new home sales or September durable goods orders will be released. They are currently scheduled for Thursday and Friday respectively. After last week’s strong rally on the back of easing US political tensions it will be interesting to see how the market copesas the focus turns back to the underlying macro picture.

The big data release in Europe this week will be the flash PMI’s on Thursday with consensus forecasts showing a slight improvement on the previous month’s data. Bloomberg survey expectations for manufacturing PMI’s are 50.1, 51.5 and 51.4 For France, Germany and the Eurozone respectively. The Eurozone PMI composite is expected to rise marginally to 52.4. Thursday will also see the release of China’s flash manufacturing PMI (expectations at 50.4). Beyond the flash PMI’s we have Q3 GDP for the UK (with expectations of a 1.5% YoY growth rate) and the German Ifo survey on Friday. Outside of data releases Thursday will see the beginning of a two day EU leaders summit in Brussels.

Overnight in Asia, markets continued where the US left off on Friday, opening strongly and generally adding to the open as trading went on. The Nikkei gaining almost +1% before dropping back a bit to sit around +0.5% as we type, with the Hang Seng up +0.59% and Shanghai composite up +1.1% with markets supported by growing expectations that Fed tapering will be delayed until next year.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/pkg9eRp9nDY/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Comrades-In-Arms Clash: France's Hollande Fumes At America Following Latest NSA Spy Gaffe

It was only two months ago that France’s socialist president, Francois Hollande, in his quest to show just how great his allegiance was to the eat tax the rich “fairness doctrine” and socialist causes espoused by the glorious leader on the other side of the Atlantic, and to said glorious leader himself, that France was prepared to almost singlehandedly invade Syria (and surrender shortly thereafter) on the basis of several fabricated YouTube clips. So strong was the socialist bond.

Less than 60 days later, how quickly the alliances within the second coming of the Comintern have changed: over the weekend, Spiegel and Le Monde revealed that the US NSA secretly monitored tens of millions of phone calls in France and hacked into former Mexican President Felipe Calderon’s email account. The spy agency monitored 70.3 million phone calls in France over a 30-day period between December 10 and January 8 this year, Le Monde reported in its online version, citing documents from Snowden. And so, recently demoted to B-grade economic status in Europe, France – America’s European lap dog in virtually everything – is suddenly apopleptic and shocked, shocked, that spying went on here.

AP has more on hilarious French response:

French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius, on a trip to Luxembourg for a meeting with his EU counterparts, said the US ambassador had “immediately” been summoned to his ministry for a meeting Monday morning.

“These kinds of practices between partners that harm privacy are totally unacceptable. We have to rapidly make sure that they are no longer implemented in any circumstance,” he told reporters.

Why hilarious? Because apparently France thought that while the US can spy daily on hundreds of millions of Americans, the spy agency would somehow exempt France. Of course, the question of why the NSA actually bothered is somewhat relevant: it’s not as if the NSA would learn anything actionable. Still, the sudden fracas between these two comrades in false flag arms nations, is quite enjoyable.

French Interior Minister Manuel Valls, meanwhile, described the revelations as “shocking”, in an interview with Europe 1 radio.

According to the paper, the NSA automatically picked up communications from certain phone numbers in France and recorded certain text messages under a programme code-named “US-985D.”

Le Monde said the documents gave grounds to believe that the NSA targeted not only people suspected of being involved in terrorism but also high-profile individuals from the world of business or politics.

Not just France: bossom NAFTA buddy Mexico too:

The Le Monde article followed revelations by Der Spiegel — also based on documents provided by Snowden — that US agents had hacked into the Mexican presidency’s network, gaining access to Calderon’s account.

According to the report, the NSA said this contained “diplomatic, economic and leadership communications which continue to provide insight into Mexico’s political system and internal stability.”

The agency reportedly said the president’s office was now “a lucrative source.”

Mexican authorities said they would be seeking answers from US officials “as soon as possible” following the allegations.

Get in line pal. As for the French, if you will pardon our French, denouement:

Valls said France would demand “precise explanations by US authorities in the coming hours.”

Or what: surrender?

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/976Mn2Oh3rI/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Comrades-In-Arms Clash: France’s Hollande Fumes At America Following Latest NSA Spy Gaffe

AP has more on hilarious French response:

French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius, on a trip to Luxembourg for a meeting with his EU counterparts, said the US ambassador had “immediately” been summoned to his ministry for a meeting Monday morning.

“These kinds of practices between partners that harm privacy are totally unacceptable. We have to rapidly make sure that they are no longer implemented in any circumstance,” he told reporters.

French Interior Minister Manuel Valls, meanwhile, described the revelations as “shocking”, in an interview with Europe 1 radio.

According to the paper, the NSA automatically picked up communications from certain phone numbers in France and recorded certain text messages under a programme code-named “US-985D.”

Le Monde said the documents gave grounds to believe that the NSA targeted not only people suspected of being involved in terrorism but also high-profile individuals from the world of business or politics.

Not just France: bossom NAFTA buddy Mexico too:

The Le Monde article followed revelations by Der Spiegel — also based on documents provided by Snowden — that US agents had hacked into the Mexican presidency’s network, gaining access to Calderon’s account.

According to the report, the NSA said this contained “diplomatic, economic and leadership communications which continue to provide insight into Mexico’s political system and internal stability.”

The agency reportedly said the president’s office was now “a lucrative source.”

Mexican authorities said they would be seeking answers from US officials “as soon as possible” following the allegations.

Get in line pal. As for the French, if you will pardon our French, denouement:

Valls said France would demand “precise explanations by US authorities in the coming hours.”

Or what: surrender?

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/976Mn2Oh3rI/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Abenomics Humiliated Again As Japan Posts 15th Consecutive (And Record) Trade Deficit

Every month we say it, and every month it just keeps getting worse: RIP Abenomics… until next month, when it will be RIP-er. Overnight Japan posted its latest, September, trade numbers which were absolutely abysmal, as the trade deficit rose to a fresh record high of 932 billion yen ($9.5 billion), the 15th consecutive monthly shortfall. The deficit for April-September rose to nearly 5 trillion yen ($51 billion), also a record for the first half of the fiscal year. The reason: as we warned in January when we predicted that the surging import costs of energy and food as a result of the plunging yen will far outweigh any incremental benefits for exports, is that, well, surging cost of energy and food far outweighed any incremental benefits for exports courtesy of the ongoing Yen devaluation. But at least Japan’s 0.1%, like the 0.1% in the US and Europe, have their wealth effect. The rest can just go on a diet. And walk getting there since they can’t afford gas.

Breakdown by component:

Imports rose 16.5 percent in September from a year earlier to 6.90 trillion yen ($70.3 billion), while exports, helped by recoveries in key overseas markets such as the US and EU, climbed 11.5 percent to 5.97 trillion yen ($60.9 billion). Imports of oil and gas accounted for nearly a third of the total but fell 1 percent as oil prices moderated. Imports of soybeans and other food and machinery surged at double-digit rates. Exports were boosted by rising shipments of vehicles, iron and steel, rubber, chemicals and machinery.

The US remained Japan’s largest export destination, at 1.11 trillion yen ($11.3 billion), while imports totaled 665 billion yen ($6.8 billion). The resulting 533 billion yen ($5.4 billion) surplus rose 25 percent from a year earlier.

The biggest irony, however, was in Japan’s trade relationship with its nemesis China, which has once again outsmarted its island neighbor. Instead of escalating militarily over a bunch of rocks in the East China Sea, China is now intent on using Japan as a mercantilist source of GDP growth. And, alternatively, Japan’s GDP is getting clobbered thanks to its soaring deficit with China: Japan’s trade deficit with China jumped 87 percent to 620 billion yen ($6.3 billion) as imports of such items as cellphones and solar panels surged 31 percent to 1.68 trillion yen ($17 billion) while exports were up 11 percent at 1.06 trillion yen ($10.8 billion). Japan’s shipments to China, Japan’s biggest trade partner, grew 11.4 percent to 1.06 trillion yen in September, while imports from China soared 30.9 percent to 1.68 trillion yen.

So even as Abe preaches his propaganda pomp while his policies and economy are imploding all around him, China is laughing all the way to the bank as it is sucking its militant neighbor dry.

Some more from SocGen:

In September, Japan’s exports rose 11.5% yoy and imports rose 16.5% yoy. The trade deficit slightly improved from August (¥962.8bn), but remained a high level of ¥932.1bn. The largest contributor to export growth was motor vehicles (+29.9% yoy). We note that motor vehicle exports to China stood out (52.8% yoy in September and 5.4% yoy in August.), supported by the base effect after political tension between China and Japan started to weigh on exports in September 2012.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, exports fell 0.3% mom (after +2.2% mom in August) while imports rose 3.8%mom (after 0.2% mom in August). On balance, the trade deficit (seasonally adjusted) worsened to ¥1091.6bn (after ¥820.8bn in August). In Q3, exports grew by merely 1.4% qoq (after 4.8%qoq in Q2) while imports grew by 4.6% qoq (after 1.6% qoq in Q2).

The worst news: Abenomics is now impacting the country so adversely, the boost in GDP as a result of consumption is now over thanks to a detraction from the net trade deficit: “As a result, the net export contribution to growth is likely to be weaker than we had expected, and it may be around zero in Q3, after 0.5ppt in Q1 and 0.3ppt in Q2.” Make that nagative.

Finally, here is Goldman:

Another significant trade deficit in September on higher imports: The trade balance continued to show significant deficit at ¥932.1 bn, following the deficit of ¥962.8 bn in August. Export values came in at +11.5% yoy, slowing down from +14.6% yoy in August. Transport equipment, which accounts for 24% of exports, came in at +19.1% yoy (August: +15.2% yoy). General machinery, which accounts for 18.5% of exports, showed a stable trend, coming in at +7.7% yoy (August: +7.3% yoy). Electric machinery (export share: 18%), however, came in at +5.3% yoy, slowing down from +10.7% in August. Export volume turned negative yoy for the first time in three months, at -1.9% yoy (August: +1.9% yoy).

Import value came in at +16.5% yoy (August: +16.1% yoy), outpacing exports. However, import value of mineral fuels such as crude oil and LNG, which has been a significant factor behind the surge in import value, came in at -1.0% yoy (August: +17.5% yoy), turning negative for the first time since November 2012. On the other hand, there was prominent growth in the import value of electric machinery (+46.6% yoy vs. +21.9% in August, import share: 15%), with semiconductor components, telecomm devices, and electric measuring instruments all growing by more than 50% yoy. The import value of general machinery (import share: 7.4%), also grew 37.9% yoy (August: +21.7% yoy). There is a clearer sign of slowdown in overall import volume, however, which came in at -2.2% yoy (August: -1.9%).

Exports to Asia and Europe slow down, imports from China surge: Looking at exports by region, exports to the US remained buoyant in September in value terms, rising 18.8% yoy (+20.6% yoy in August) while there was a slowdown in exports to Europe (September: +14.3%, August: +18.1%) and Asia (+8.2%; +13.4%), exports to China also declined (+11.4%; +15.8%). Meanwhile, imports from China grew 30.9% yoy (+17.6% yoy in August), contributing to the growth of Japan’s overall import value by 6.7% points. Imports of electric machinery from China, telecom equipment in particular, are growing rapidly, with the September figure coming in at +55.8% yoy (+23.2% in August).

In short: with every passing month Abenomics does merely more of what it was meant to do – cripple the economy, destroy the workers and hurt end consumers, while the soaring stock market helps just the ultra wealthiest. Good job Goldman Sachs advisors to the BOJ.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/LYUWkzQDLr0/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Why Have Young People In Japan Stopped Having Sex?

Japan’s under-40s appear to be losing interest in conventional relationships. Millions aren’t even dating, and increasing numbers can’t be bothered with sex. For their government, “celibacy syndrome” is part of a looming national catastrophe. Japan already has one of the world’s lowest birth rates. As The Guardian reports, 45% of Japanese women aged 16-24 are “not interested in or despise sexual contact”. More than a quarter of men feel the same way. Is Japan providing a glimpse of all our futures? Many of the shifts there are occurring in other advanced nations, too. Across urban Asia, Europe and America, people are marrying later or not at all, birth rates are falling, single-occupant households are on the rise and, in countries where economic recession is worst, young people are living at home…

Via The Guardian,

Ai Aoyama is a sex and relationship counsellor who works out of her narrow three-storey home on a Tokyo back street… she did “all the usual things” like tying people up and dripping hot wax on their nipples. Her work today, she says, is far more challenging. Aoyama, 52, is trying to cure what Japan’s media calls sekkusu shinai shokogun, or “celibacy syndrome”.

…

Japan’s under-40s appear to be losing interest in conventional relationships. Millions aren’t even dating, and increasing numbers can’t be bothered with sex. For their government, “celibacy syndrome” is part of a looming national catastrophe. Japan already has one of the world’s lowest birth rates. Its population of 126 million, which has been shrinking for the past decade, is projected to plunge a further one-third by 2060. Aoyama believes the country is experiencing “a flight from human intimacy” – and it’s partly the government’s fault.

…

The number of single people has reached a record high. A survey in 2011 found that 61% of unmarried men and 49% of women aged 18-34 were not in any kind of romantic relationship, a rise of almost 10% from five years earlier. Another study found that a third of people under 30 had never dated at all. (There are no figures for same-sex relationships.) Although there has long been a pragmatic separation of love and sex in Japan – a country mostly free of religious morals – sex fares no better. A survey earlier this year by the Japan Family Planning Association (JFPA) found that 45% of women aged 16-24 “were not interested in or despised sexual contact”. More than a quarter of men felt the same way.

…

Official alarmism doesn’t help. Fewer babies were born here in 2012 than any year on record. (This was also the year, as the number of elderly people shoots up, that adult incontinence pants outsold baby nappies in Japan for the first time.) Kunio Kitamura, head of the JFPA, claims the demographic crisis is so serious that Japan “might eventually perish into extinction”.

…

“Both men and women say to me they don’t see the point of love. They don’t believe it can lead anywhere,” says Aoyama. “Relationships have become too hard.”

Marriage has become a minefield of unattractive choices. Japanese men have become less career-driven, and less solvent, as lifetime job security has waned. Japanese women have become more independent and ambitious.

…

Aoyama says the sexes, especially in Japan’s giant cities, are “spiralling away from each other”. Lacking long-term shared goals, many are turning to what she terms “Pot Noodle love” – easy or instant gratification, in the form of casual sex, short-term trysts and the usual technological suspects: online porn, virtual-reality “girlfriends”, anime cartoons. Or else they’re opting out altogether and replacing love and sex with other urban pastimes.

…

Aoyama cites one man in his early 30s, a virgin, who can’t get sexually aroused unless he watches female robots on a game similar to Power Rangers.

…

Mendokusai translates loosely as “Too troublesome” or “I can’t be bothered”. It’s the word I hear both sexes use most often when they talk about their relationship phobia. Romantic commitment seems to represent burden and drudgery, from the exorbitant costs of buying property in Japan to the uncertain expectations of a spouse and in-laws. And the centuries-old belief that the purpose of marriage is to produce children endures. Japan’s Institute of Population and Social Security reports an astonishing 90% of young women believe that staying single is “preferable to what they imagine marriage to be like”.

…

The sense of crushing obligation affects men just as much. Satoru Kishino, 31, belongs to a large tribe of men under 40 who are engaging in a kind of passive rebellion against traditional Japanese masculinity. Amid the recession and unsteady wages, men like Kishino feel that the pressure on them to be breadwinning economic warriors for a wife and family is unrealistic. They are rejecting the pursuit of both career and romantic success.

“It’s too troublesome,” says Kishino, when I ask why he’s not interested in having a girlfriend. “I don’t earn a huge salary to go on dates and I don’t want the responsibility of a woman hoping it might lead to marriage.” Japan’s media, which has a name for every social kink, refers to men like Kishino as “herbivores” or soshoku danshi (literally, “grass-eating men”). Kishino says he doesn’t mind the label because it’s become so commonplace. He defines it as “a heterosexual man for whom relationships and sex are unimportant”.

…

Is Japan providing a glimpse of all our futures? Many of the shifts there are occurring in other advanced nations, too. Across urban Asia, Europe and America, people are marrying later or not at all, birth rates are falling, single-occupant households are on the rise and, in countries where economic recession is worst, young people are living at home.

…

“Gradually but relentlessly, Japan is evolving into a type of society whose contours and workings have only been contemplated in science fiction,”

…

Japan’s 20-somethings are the age group to watch. Most are still too young to have concrete future plans, but projections for them are already laid out. According to the government’s population institute, women in their early 20s today have a one-in-four chance of never marrying. Their chances of remaining childless are even higher: almost 40%.

…

“Japan has developed incredibly sophisticated virtual worlds and online communication systems. Its smart phone apps are the world’s most imaginative.” Kelts says the need to escape into private, virtual worlds in Japan stems from the fact that it’s an overcrowded nation with limited physical space. But he also believes the rest of the world is not far behind.

Getting back to basics, former dominatrix Ai Aoyama – Queen Love – is determined to educate her clients on the value of “skin-to-skin, heart-to-heart” intimacy. She accepts that technology will shape the future, but says society must ensure it doesn’t take over. “It’s not healthy that people are becoming so physically disconnect
ed from each other,” she says. “Sex with another person is a human need that produces feel-good hormones and helps people to function better in their daily lives.”

Aoyama says she sees daily that people crave human warmth, even if they don’t want the hassle of marriage or a long-term relationship. She berates the government for “making it hard for single people to live however they want” and for “whipping up fear about the falling birth rate”. Whipping up fear in people, she says, doesn’t help anyone. And that’s from a woman who knows a bit about whipping.

Read more here

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/76qmBD3wdGY/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Strapped For Cash? Here’s The Price List For Your Body Parts

As we explained last week, the sad fact is that cashed-strapped Americans are looking for new ways to make money and selling body parts is becoming a rising trend. Bloomberg crunched the numbers and found out what parts will earn the biggest pay day on and off the black market.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/fYNg1VwHGJ0/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Strapped For Cash? Here's The Price List For Your Body Parts

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/fYNg1VwHGJ0/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Alasdair Macleod Warns A Currency Crisis Is Dead Ahead

Submitted by Adam Taggart of Peak Prosperity,

This week’s podcast interview introduces a new monetary measurement developed by Alasdair Macleod: the ‘Fiat Quantity of Money’, or FMQ.

Alasdair explains how FMQ is derived, as well as what it can tell us about the true levels of fiat money supply. In the case of the dollar, it reveals that levels are far above what is commonly appreciated – so far, in fact, that a currency crisis could arrive sooner than even many dollar bears expect.

What ‘Fiat Money Quantity’ (FMQ) Is Signaling

I started off with the desire to put together a metric of money which allows me to compare sound money with fiat money. My approach to this was to look at what happens in how fiat money was created.

It originally involved the money substitute. In other words, you and I or our great-grandfathers or our great-great-grandfathers would deposit gold in the bank for safekeeping. The bank would give them either notes, which they could then cash anywhere where it was accepted where that bank’s credit was valuable, or alternatively, it would give them an account – a deposit account – which would show that yes, the bank holds the gold on your behalf. That was the starting point. So that was how deposits and cash were originally created as money substitutes.

Then the next thing happened: Central banks were invented. What happened was that they took over the note-issuing monopoly. They were given, by the government, essentially a monopoly. In return for that, all of the banks within the central bank’s system would take the gold that was originally deposited and move it into the central bank in return for – guess what? – deposit accounts and nice new bank notes.

So really what I wanted to do was to quantify that process [by creating the FQM]. It involved taking cash, all of these instant-access deposits, or deposits which are readily accessible, plus the deposits that the banks have at the central bank, because that is money just the same as your deposit account is in your bank; it is exactly the same in that sense. If you look at that, you get some very interesting statistics.

Going from 1960 to the month before the Lehman crisis in 2008, the average exponential growth rate was around about 5.9%, year in/year out. It followed that track very closely. Then of course we had TARP and all of the rest of it.

And then we had QE. And guess what? The level of fiat-money quantity is now over 60% above that long-term trend line. Now, if we stand back unemotionally and look at that chart, we would say that this is monetary hyperinflation.

Here we have this situation now where the Central Bank, the Fed, is having to produce money to finance the government deficit. It’s having to produce money to keep interest rates down so that the banks don’t have balance-sheet problems. And if it slows down in that production of money, and even if it doesn’t increase the rate of the production of that money, then our world is going to come to a rather nasty halt.

It looks like not only are we in a debt trap, but we are in a hyperinflationary trap, potentially. We need someone who is really quite strong and understands these things to be able to stand on the system and say, no more!

So my question to you, Chris, is, can anyone do that? Do you think Janet Yellen will do that?

One of the things that’s interesting in this, which I think is a dynamic that is going to play out over the next few months, is, here we are expanding a quantity of money hugely. But at the same time, what we’re not seeing is the prices of raw materials, of things like that really reflecting that expansion of money. Now, there is always a time lag between the two effects. But actually we are seeing this effect on certain things, and in a way in which one would expect. That is that asset prices, particularly things like property, are beginning to rise.

What FMQ Indicates for Gold

The one thing which I think is being triggered is gold. We had a good rise today. We had about a $40 rise. Now I think that this is something quite significant, really, for a number of reasons, but if I go back to my FMQ (fiat money quantity), if I adjust the price of gold from just before Lehman Brothers went under, I think I’m right in saying that in July 2008, the price of gold at the close of that month was $918/ounce.

Now, if you adjust that price by the extra fiat money quantity that is now in circulation, gold has actually gone down, in real terms if you like, by about 30%. Put another way, if the price of gold was to match in real terms that $918 level, it would today be about $1,860. So we have this extraordinary thing where gold, for whatever reason, has become extremely undervalued compared to where it was before Lehman Brothers went under. Now this is important, because before Lehman Brothers went under, not many people actually understood systemic risk. So the price of gold did not really include the weighting for systemic risk.

The other thing I would say is that since then, with our FMQ having taken off, there is a substantial hyperinflation risk that is going to affect prices somewhere down the line. And yet, gold is trading at a discount of 30% to where it was before all of this happened, so it is horribly mispriced.

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via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/4oMBRp_D-Og/story01.htm Tyler Durden

The Obamacare "Glitch" Explained In 25 Quotes

While some have proclaimed the 36,000 enrollment in The Affordable Care Act "a good start," the online marketplaces that Obamacare has become more infamous for have been plagued with problems in the brief two weeks since launch. Politico provides 25 of the most telling and colorful comments made about the "glitches" the online exchanges have faced…

1. “I hope they are working day and night to get this done. When they get it fixed, I hope they fire some people that were in charge of making sure that this thing was supposed to work.” — former White House press secretary Robert Gibbs on MSNBC’s “Now with Alex Wagner,” Oct. 14

2. “A thousand Social Security numbers being sent to the wrong people is not a glitch!” — CNBC contributor Carol Roth on HBO’s “Real Time with Bill Maher,” Oct. 12

3. “How can we tax people for not buying a product from a website that doesn’t work?” — House Speaker John Boehner, Oct. 10

4. “Despite the widespread belief that the administration was not ready for the health law’s Oct. 1 launch, top officials and lead IT contractors looked us in the eye and assured us all systems were a go. Instead, here we are 10 days later, and delays and technical failures have reached epidemic proportions.” — Rep. Fred Upton (R-Mich.) in a statement, Oct. 10

5. “We’re going to do a challenge. I’m going to try and download every movie ever made and you are going to try to sign up for Obamacare — and we’ll see which happens first.” — Jon Stewart to Secretary Kathleen Sebelius on "The Daily Show," Oct. 7

6. “It’s a new rule: If something doesn’t work, you get rid of it! If the post office is late today, let’s get rid of the post office! If the plane is late an hour, get rid of airplanes! It’s ridiculous!” — MSNBC’s Chris Matthews, Oct. 12

7. “There’s so much wrong, you just don’t know what’s broken until you get a lot more of it fixed.” — Aetna CEO Mark Bertolini, Oct. 14

8. “They had three years to get this ready. If they weren’t fully ready, they should accept the advice Republicans are giving them: Delay it for a year, get it ready and make sure it works.” — CNN’s Wolf Blitzer, Oct. 9

9. “I heard that [the website] had over 8 million hits — people that have tried to sign up — and so far they have people in the single digits that have signed up.” — Rep. Buck McKeon (R-Calif.), Oct. 9

10. “The shutdown has completely gotten in the way of the message of Obamacare not working. If there were no government shutdown, Republicans could train all their fire on the failures of the exchanges in a ‘See, I told you so’ approach.” — Republican strategist Ron Bonjean, Oct. 1

11. “The fact that there is any disruption in the website is inexcusable. But I think the attention is being diverted from the slowness of the website to the fact that we’re in this financial crisis.” — Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.), Oct. 10.

12. “Basically, HHS has screwed this whole thing up.” — Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.), Oct. 9

13. “Consider that just a couple of weeks ago, Apple rolled out a new mobile operating system, and within days, they found a glitch, so they fixed it. I don’t remember anybody suggesting Apple should stop selling iPhones or iPads or threatening to shut down the company if they didn’t.” — President Barack Obama, Oct. 1

14. “If Apple launched a major new product that functioned as badly as Obamacare’s online insurance marketplace, the tech world would be calling for Tim Cook’s head.” — Ezra Klein and Evan Soltas in The Washington Post Wonkblog, Oct. 4

15. “It’s bad enough that Sebelius and Co. produced a terrible taxpayer-funded product. It’s even worse that they didn’t heed the warnings or spot the red flags. They put on a smile, flipped the switch and sat by as it crashed…[T]he first person fired should be Secretary Sebelius.” — RNC Chairman Reince Priebus, Oct. 15

16. “The secretary does have the full confidence of the president. She, like everyone else in this effort, is focused on our No. 1 priority, which is making the implementation of the Affordable Care Act work well. People are working 24/7 to address the problems and isolate them and fix them, when it comes to the website and enrollment issues.” — Press secretary Jay Carney, Oct. 15

17. “If the problems persist another three or four weeks, those at the back of the line will not have coverage.” — Dan Schuyler, consultant who helped design a health insurance exchange in Utah, Oct. 11

18. “If we are already running into issues at the user account stage, we’re going to run into a lot more issues when we get to the more complex operations at the [subsidy] eligibility determination.” — Dan Schuyler, consultant who helped des
ign a health insurance exchange in Utah, Oct. 11

19. “The volume obviously is a factor: For the first day or two, it worked. A week and a half later, it’s no longer an adequate explanation.” — Washington and Lee University School of Law professor Tim Jost, Oct. 12

20. “In retrospect, they should have said to the public before Oct. 1, 'This is going to take a while; give us some time and wait.'” — John Rother, president of the National Coalition on Health Care, Oct. 12

21. “It is not unique that when you have a very large, new software program come out that people work to clean it up.” — Treasury Secretary Jack Lew, Oct. 6

22. “[It’s] pretty clear that they’re working on the glitches in Obamacare, and it’s pretty clear that we need a geek squad for the website, not a firing squad for the entire bill.” — Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.), Oct. 10

23. “In eight weeks, we will find out what the cause was and work it out with the help of HHS and the Small Business Administration, to make it easier to enroll.” — Rep. Rubén Hinojosa (D-Texas), Oct. 10

24. “This week, Sebelius continued wasting taxpayer dollars on advertising and promotional tours. This included failed rallies at NFL stadiums and appearances on comedy shows to promote enrollment while at the same time, Americans were unable to sign up for health care plans as promised. Even Jon Stewart didn’t think it was a laughing matter.” — Sen. Pat Roberts (R-Kan.), Oct. 11

25. “[It’s] like trying to repair a car while someone is driving it.” — George Edwards, computer scientist, to FoxNews.com, Oct. 10

We are sure this will all end well with the administration declaring some kind of "victory"… though that last quote seems to ring extremely true of every government plan we have seen in the last decade or 10…

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/G3DfFZ7xIgo/story01.htm Tyler Durden

The Obamacare “Glitch” Explained In 25 Quotes