Month: January 2024

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on Thursday sent a notice to health care providers to “stay alert for measles cases” after multiple outbreaks were reported in recent weeks along with an instance where an “international traveler” may have exposed thousands to the virus at two Washington-area airports.

The agency’s alert said that between Dec. 1, 2023, and Jan. 23 of this year, it received reports of 23 confirmed measles cases, “including seven direct importations of measles by international travelers and two outbreaks with more than five cases each.”

In the alert, it said that health care providers should take note of patients who have febrile rash symptoms as well as other related measles symptoms such as a cough or conjunctivitis or have recently traveled outside the United States, namely in countries with measles outbreaks.

It then said health care providers should “immediately” report the cases to state and local health agencies about suspected measles cases, which are then reported to the CDC

“Do not allow patients with suspected measles to remain in the waiting room or other common areas of the healthcare facility; isolate patients with suspected measles immediately, ideally in a single-patient airborne infection isolation room,” the agency said, or they are urged to wait in a private room with a closed door. “Healthcare providers should be adequately protected against measles and should adhere to standard and airborne precautions when evaluating suspect cases regardless of their vaccination status,” it said.

The agency also again recommended that people receive a vaccine for measles and pushed health care providers to recommend the shots. In 2023, the CDC sent out a similar health alert pushing for people to get vaccinated for the virus.

According to the alerts, the CDC said that most measles cases involve young children who haven’t received a measles-containing shot. Recent research, published in late December 2023, suggests if the measles vaccine is given after the diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis vaccine—known as DTP or DTAP—there is an overall positive effect. If the order is reversed, a negative effect was observed.

Recent Cases

While the CDC did not go into specifics, health officials in the District of Columbia and Virginia issued notices about a “case of measles in a person who traveled through” area airports after returning from “international travel.”

That person traveled to Dulles International Airport in the international arrivals area of the main terminal between 4 p.m. and 8 p.m. local time on Wednesday, Jan. 3, as well as at the Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport’s Terminal A between 2:30 p.m. and 6:30 p.m. local time on Thursday, Jan. 4, according to the health agencies.

Health authorities are now working to identify people who may have been exposed to measles, including working to contact possibly exposed passengers on several flights, those alerts said earlier in January.

Neither statements from the Virginia and Washington health agencies listed the airlines or flights the infected person used. It’s also not clear what country the person had been traveling to.

In recent weeks, cases have been reported in Philadelphia, New Jersey, Kansas City, Delaware, and Washington state, according to various media reports.

Federal officials have confirmed at least 9 measles cases in Missouri, Georgia, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania as of Jan. 25, 2024. Over 1,200 measles cases have been confirmed since 2019, the CDC says.

Months before the COVID-19 pandemic started worldwide, health officials in New York’s Rockland County declared an emergency in 2019 after more than 100 people were diagnosed with the virus in the area. At the time, the declaration had banned minors who were not vaccinated for measles from appearing in public places, including shopping centers, schools, and restaurants.

Symptoms

Health authorities say that measles is a highly transmissible virus that spreads through the air when a person breathes, coughs, talks, or sneezes.

The virus generally shows up in two stages. In the first, most people develop a fever higher than 101 degrees Fahrenheit, runny nose, watery red eyes, or cough. These symptoms generally start seven to 14 days after being exposed.

Officials say the second stage of measles starts about two to three days after the initial symptoms. Some people develop what is known as Koplik spots—tiny white spots—inside the mouth, according to the CDC.

Three to five days after the first symptoms begin, the telltale measles rash starts to appear on the patient’s face near the hairline area before it spreads to the rest of the body, spreading downward, the CDC has said.

“Small raised bumps may also appear on top of the flat red spots,” and the “spots may become joined together as they spread from the head to the rest of the body,” the agency says. “When the rash appears, a person’s fever may spike to more than 104 degrees Fahrenheit.”

The CDC and the World Health Organization in November said that there were nine million measles cases and 136,000 deaths in 2022.

A dozen Republican state agriculture commissioners have penned a letter to six U.S. megabanks, informing them that their push for ESG investing could wind up leading to price increases and may impact food availability. 

The letter was sent to executives at Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo and took exception with the group’s membership in the UN organized Net-Zero Banking Alliance (NZBA), according to Fox News. 

The NZBA is “committed to financing ambitious climate action” and is attempting to force the economy to net zero greenhouse emissions by 2050. The letter notes that this could result in “severe consequences” for farmers. 

The letter reads: “Achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture requires a complete overhaul of on-farm infrastructure — one of the goals of the NZBA.” 

“This would have a catastrophic impact on our farmers. Proposed net-zero roadmaps describe dramatic, impractical, and costly changes to American farming and ranching operations such as switching to electric machinery and equipment; installing on-site solar panels and wind turbines; moving to organic fertilizer; altering rice-field irrigation systems; and slashing U.S. ruminant meat consumption in half, costing millions of livestock jobs,” it continues. 

The letter then says: “To make matters worse, these changes will increase food costs and decrease food production at a time when global food demand is expected to rise dramatically.”

“This is compounded by the fact that, the average American has been struggling to keep up with inflation during the tenure of the Biden Administration. The reality could be much worse. These effects will hit the poor the hardest,” the commissioners wrote. 

They said the goal of net zero emissions could “permanently damage American agriculture and endanger our country’s food security” and said that “American farmers should not be forced to put our food supply at risk.”

Georgia Agriculture Commissioner Tyler Harper commented to Fox: “American agriculture is sending a clear signal: we will not bend the knee to the failed, left-wing climate agenda of the United Nations that seeks to cripple one of our country’s most critical industries.”

“Now more than ever, banks that do business with America should be unquestionably supporting American industries — and that starts with the one that puts food on our tables, clothes on our backs, and shelter over our heads.” 

Harper continued: “The UN’s Net-Zero Banking Alliance would be the equivalent of a run on the bank for our nation’s agriculture industry and pose a serious threat to our national security — and it must be stopped.”

Will Hild, the executive director of watchdog group Consumers’ Research, told Fox News: “Farmers and ranchers are the foundation of our economy and international climate cartels like the NZBA pose nothing less than an existential threat to their future. By forcing ESG, Brian Moynihan and his cohort have driven the cost of doing business for small family farmers and independent ranchers to astronomical heights.”

Hild continued: “The Ag officials and Commissioners hit the nail on the head in their letter: should their misguided climate extremism continue unabated, these megabanks will put our entire food supply in serious jeopardy. I applaud the states for their action, and I look forward to working with them to defend American consumers from this corporate malfeasance.”

Officials from Georgia, Alabama, Florida, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, North Dakota, South Carolina, Texas and West Virginia all signed the letter. You can read the full letter here: 

The letter asserts that, as members of the Net-Zero Banking Alliance (NZBA), @BankOfAmerica, @Citi, @JPMorgan, @MorganStanley, @WellsFargo, and @GoldmanSachs are all working in lockstep to force the ESG agenda onto the entire domestic food supply chain: pic.twitter.com/1phYm6iOvo

— Will Hild (@WillHild) January 29, 2024

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Arizona Republican Party selected a new Trump-endorsed chair on Jan. 27 after the former party leader resigned following a bribery controversy.

“We proudly present our new Chairwoman [Gina Swoboda], alongside the dynamic new AZGOP Board!” the party said in a Jan. 28 post on social media platform X. “With a laser focus on the 2024 elections, our mission is clear: to win additional seats in the state legislature, reclaim our Senate and Congressional seats, take control of school boards, and win back the White House. We are ready for victory!”

Ms. Swoboda was elected at the annual GOP meeting held at Dream City Church in north Phoenix on Jan. 27, which was attended by more than 1,000 people. Previously, only elections for the party’s lower-level positions were scheduled for the day.

However, the sudden resignation of former state GOP chair Jeff DeWit due to bribery allegations triggered an urgent election to select a successor. Mr. DeWit was only one year into his scheduled two-year term. His departure triggered a rush of candidates who aimed to secure the position.

Three candidates were initially nominated: Ms. Swoboda, Arizona Corporation Commissioner Jim O’Connor, and Mesa resident Verl Farnsworth, who ran for the office of president of the United States in 2012.

According to Republican state Sen. Wendy Rogers, Ms. Swoboda secured 67 percent of the votes.

In a Jan. 28 X post, Ms. Swoboda voiced her support for former President Donald Trump, who backed her in the race.

“Arizona is the key to the presidency,“ she wrote. ”I was proud to have the support of President Trump in this victory to lead the AZGOP into the most important election of our lifetime. Now it’s time to turn out every last vote for the 47th President, DONALD J TRUMP!”

On Jan. 27, President Trump said in a Truth Social post that Ms. Swoboda had his “complete and total endorsement to be chairwoman of the Republican Party of Arizona.”

“She is an outstanding person with incredible passion for our Party,” he wrote.

Kari Lake, a candidate for the U.S. Senate who allegedly was offered bribes by Mr. DeWit, called Ms. Swoboda’s win a “massive victory.”

“Gina is a National Leader in election law. She is a grassroots hero and is loved by Republicans of ALL stripes. Gina is battle-tested and a woman of great integrity—she understands that the White House and Senate Majority—and frankly, the survival of our Republic—runs right through State 48,” Ms. Lake wrote in a Jan. 28 X post.

“President Trump and I were VERY proud to endorse Gina. We look forward to restoring Arizona’s faith in elections and winning BIG in 2024.”

Ms. Swoboda works as a senior adviser on elections for the Arizona Senate. She is the executive director of the Voter Reference Foundation, which describes itself as “dedicated to ensuring transparent, accurate, and fair elections” in the country.

The Controversy

The bribery scandal that led to Mr. DeWit’s resignation came to light after The Daily Mail published a recording from March 2023 featuring a conversation between him and Ms. Lake.

In the recording, Mr. DeWit says that “very powerful people” want to keep Ms. Lake out of the Senate race for two years.

“They’re willing to put their money where their mouth is in a big way. So this conversation never happened,” he said.

“This is crazy though. They should want me. I’m a great candidate. People love me. These people are corrupt,” Ms. Lake responded. “This is about defeating Trump, and I think that’s a bad, bad thing for our country … This is about the final death blow to Trump, and I don’t think that’s good for our country.”

Mr. DeWit agreed: “It’s not … but at the same time I’m not even sure Trump can win again.”

“Just say, is there a number at which—” Mr. DeWit says before being cut off by Ms. Lake.

“I can be bought? That’s what it’s about,” she says.

Mr. DeWit suggests that he might be killed if the powerful figures behind him offering the bribe were to be exposed.

“Don’t tell anybody we had this conversation,” he warns Ms. Lake.

After the recording was published, Ms. Lake said in an interview with NBC that Mr. DeWit has “got to resign.”

On the same day, Mr. Dewit said he resigned from the post of Arizona GOP chair. In a statement, he accused Ms. Lake’s team of secretly recording their controversial conversation and leaking it to the media.

“I said things I regret, but I realize when hearing Lake’s recording that I was set up,” he said. “I believe she orchestrated this entire situation to have control over the state party.”

During the Jan. 27 election, when Ms. Lake took to the stage to nominate Ms. Swoboda, some audience members booed in an apparent rebuff to her involvement in the bribing scandal.

In an interview with AZCentral, Arizona Speaker of the House Ben Toma said that the recent turmoil was “unfortunate” for the party.

“I hope we can find a way to get united as a party very soon because I think that matters a lot,“ he said. ”It’ll make a big difference by the time we get to the general election.”

J.D. Watson, a state committee member from Scottsdale, said he was concerned about the corruption exposed by the scandal.

“I believe that [DeWit] did something wrong. … He needs to own up to it and stop being the victim.”

Mr. Watson also said he appreciated that Ms. Lake turned down the bribe and potentially leaked her conversation with Mr. DeWit.

“We’re talking six figures, possibly, and she could not be bought.”

For several days there has been a flurry of reports in both independent and mainstream media outlets suggesting the US could finally withdraw American troops from Iraq and Syria. These reports spread widely especially before the Sunday drone attack on a US base on the Syrian-Jordanian border, which killed three American soldiers and injured over 40 more, according to revised casualty figures.

For example, Foreign Policy reported last Wednesday that the White House is actively reviewing and reconsidering the troop presence after a years-long occupation of Syria, however the report emphasized that “no definitive decision has been made to leave.”

Still, there had not been any serious reporting or “debate” on a plan to withdraw from Syria going back to the middle of the Trump administration, when then President Trump pointed out that troops were there “to secure the oil”. 

Just as in the aforementioned Foreign Policy article, hawks argue that American must “stay the course” (with no exit date, as these things tend to go) as if somehow the Pentagon’s absence from the region will unleash chaos and an expansionist Iran (or insert Russia, China, or any ‘bad guy’ of the moment).

But this week, a top Biden admin official sought to definitively dispel the substantial rumors that an Iraq or Syria withdrawal could be around the corner.

And it was none other than Victoria “F*ck The EU” Nuland:

“Well, first let me set the records straight, the United States is not withdrawing from Syria,” Nuland, who is US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, has told CNN Turk.

Nuland’s comments are being reported in foreign media but have been absent from the US mainstream, perhaps given general apathy among the American public on questions of the ‘forever’ occupation of Syria.

After the killings of 3 US troops, top State Dept. official Victoria Nuland declares that “the USA is not withdrawing from Syria.” She adds that the US needs to stay to fight ISIS.

Pentagon documents show that this is a lie: the US is barely fighting ISIS. In fact, the US has… pic.twitter.com/KKsmbAD1Yb

— Aaron Maté (@aaronjmate) January 30, 2024

At this point, Americans are by and large conditioned to assume that it is the “right” of America to indefinitely occupy sovereign foreign states in the Middle East and sweep up their energy resources. And all the while the ruling class in the D.C. beltway feigns concern for the needless loss of life of US troops placed precariously in far-flung deserts.

The Ron Paul Institute’s Daniel McAdams has aptly described what’s really going on, and nothing more really needs to be said…

She loves having American troops killed in places like Syria. It brings the US closer to the neocon fantasy of war with Iran. She views members of the US military as mere cattle. Mere pawns. The people in charge of American foreign policy hate Americans. https://t.co/IyucfW4PYO

— Daniel McAdams (@DanielLMcAdams) January 30, 2024

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Rap star Snoop Dogg has expressed strong praise for former President Donald Trump, joining a list of celebrities who have either spoken favorably about or outright endorsed the former president in the run-up to the 2024 presidential election.

Snoop Dogg, whose real name is Calvin Cordozar Broadus Jr., said in an interview with British newspaper The Sunday Times that he’s still not sure who he’ll endorse in the election. But he made clear his view of the former president on a more personal level.

“I have nothing but love and respect for Donald Trump,” Snoop Dogg said.

This positioning is quite a shift from Snoop Dogg’s 2017 rap video showing a mock execution of a clown dressed as President Trump.

In a mock breaking news clip, Klump is seen at a “Clown House” press conference where the TV news crawl reads “Ronald Klump wants to deport all doggs.”

Later, Snoop Dogg is seen firing a fake pistol at Klump as he stands with his hands raised.

The rapper said President Trump had never done anything wrong to him. On the contrary, “he has done only great things for me.”

The musician specifically praised President Trump’s decision to pardon Michael Harris, one of the co-founders of the Death Row Records label that signed Snoop Dogg early on in his career.

Before leaving office in 2021, President Trump commuted Mr. Harris’ 25-to-life sentence for conspiracy to commit first-degree murder

Mr. Harris, who served a total of 33 years behind bars, told the Daily Mail after he was pardoned that he was grateful to President Trump for the pardon.

“Whyever he did it, he did it, when so many others wouldn’t do it,” he told the outlet, adding, “I’m grateful that God did whatever God do to get mo to sit in this seat. And whatever vessel he used.”

He added that his bid for clemency under former President Barack Obama had failed.

Snoop Dogg’s latest praise for President Trump stands in contrast to earlier criticism, including when he said ahead of the 2020 election that his first-ever vote in a presidential election would be for President Trump’s opponent.

While Snoop Dogg has yet to formally declare his support for President Trump in the 2024 election, a number of celebrities have thrown their weight behind the former president, including comedian Roseanne Barr, actor Dean Cain, and rapper Kodak Black, who once said he would gladly gift the former president $1 million if he needed it.

Besides celebrities, President Trump has racked up 227 noteworthy endorsements from House representatives, senators, and state governors—a figure many times higher than the handful of endorsements given to his sole remaining major GOP presidential rival, Nikki Haley.

President Trump is the frontrunner by far in his bid for the Republican nomination, with 70.3 percent support, compared to 12.6 percent for Ms. Haley, according to the latest RealClearPolitics polling average.

Taylor Swift Biden Endorsement Rumors

Meanwhile, as President Joe Biden’s approval ratings sit at historic lows, his team is reportedly looking to get some enthusiasm going for his campaign by seeking an endorsement from pop superstar Taylor Swift.

It’s unclear whether Ms. Swift, who boasts over 279 million followers on Instagram and has consistently backed Democrats, plans to endorse President Biden.

She endorsed President Biden in the 2020 presidential election and has expressed unfavorable views of President Trump.

The buzz around a possible Swift endorsement for President Biden has become so widespread that, according to The New York Times, the president’s campaign team has urged applicants for an open social media position not to tout the potential endorsement as a silver bullet strategy.

Speculation about Ms. Swift throwing her weight behind President Biden prompted Vivek Ramaswamy, a tech entrepreneur who recently dropped out of the Republican primary race to endorse President Trump, to joke that the NFL may have rigged the Super Bowl to give Ms. Swift a broad platform to announce the potential endorsement.

“I wonder who’s going to win the Super Bowl next month. And I wonder if there’s a major presidential endorsement coming from an artificially culturally propped-up couple this fall. Just some wild speculation over here, let’s see how it ages over the next 8 months,” Mr. Ramaswamy said in a post on X.

Ms. Swift, who is dating Kansas City tight end Travis Kelce, has been spotted in recent weeks attending NFL games in support of her boyfriend.

The Chiefs, who are the reigning Super Bowl champions, are set to play the San Francisco 49ers at this season’s final NFL matchup in Las Vegas, Nevada, on Feb. 11.

Celebrity endorsements aside, President Biden’s strategy appears focused on trying to win over independent voters, while seeking to label President Trump and his supporters as “Make America Great Again” extremists and accusing them of being anti-democratic for their calls for vote audits.

President Trump, on the other hand, has sought to portray President Biden as having disastrous energy and border policies that undermine U.S. national security, while pegging the president as frail, incompetent, and dishonest.

After years of insisting otherwise, the White House now calls the situation at the southern border “a crisis.” The administration had often rejected that phrase, preferring instead to describe the historic influx of migrants crossing illegally as “a challenge.”

But as Philip Wegmann writes via RealClear Wire, that nomenclature is no more. In a notable shift, when asked about border crossings, White House spokesman John Kirby told RealClearPolitics Monday, “The president himself has talked about the fact that there is a crisis going on at the border.”

This was a reference to a statement President Biden made Friday when he said that his administration had been “negotiating” with Congress for “two months” to “finally address the border crisis.” A change in policy as well as rhetoric, the president promised the next day that, if given new powers by Congress, he would “shut down the border right now.”

House Speaker Mike Johnson was quick to spot the change in language. “Finally. It took three years for President Biden to admit there is a crisis at the southern border,” he told RealClearPolitics in a statement, before adding, “It’s not just a crisis, it’s a catastrophe.”

“Still, the president claims he has no executive authority to fix the disaster he has created,” the speaker continued. “That is demonstrably untrue. He can and should act immediately.”

House Republicans appreciate the change in rhetoric.

And as Jackson Richman reports via The Epoch Times, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has made clear where House Republicans will draw the line on any agreement dealing with the border: allowing illegal crossings.

“Any border ’shutdown’ authority that ALLOWS even one illegal crossing is a non-starter. Thousands each day is outrageous. The number must be ZERO,” Mr. Johnson wrote on X, formerly Twitter, on Jan. 29.

The deal, whose text is set to be released this week, reportedly would permit the president to close ports of entry if illegal crossings reach a certain threshold.

One of the negotiators, Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), announced on Jan. 28 that a proposal was almost ready.

“This bill could be ready to be on the floor of the United States Senate next week,” he said on CNN, “but it won’t be if Republicans decide that they want to keep this issue unsettled for political purposes.”

The White House called on Congress to give the president the ability to protect the border.

“Until recently, Mr. Johnson advocated for HR2 because, in his view, presidents needed new legal authorities in order to secure the border,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre wrote in a memo.

HR2, known as the Secure the Border Act, was passed by the GOP-controlled House last year. It would have required a border wall to be completed and for asylum seekers to remain in Mexico while their claims are considered, in addition to other border security measures. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) has said that bill was dead on arrival in the Democrat-controlled upper chamber.

Mr. Johnson previously said any Senate bill that doesn’t include HR2 would be dead on arrival in the House.

“If Speaker Johnson continues to believe—as President [Joe] Biden and Republicans and Democrats in Congress do—that we have an imperative to act immediately on the border, he should give this administration the authority and funding we’re requesting to secure the border,” the memo states.

The memo cited quotes from Mr. Johnson to demonstrate that the speaker is being contradictory.

It quotes him as saying in February 2023: “America is the most compassionate nation in the world, but our immigration system is broken. Reforming that system is a job for Congress, and any balanced legislative approach must include measures to strengthen border security.”

It also cites Mr. Johnson as writing in a letter to President Biden last month that “statutory reforms designed to restore operational control at our southern border must be enacted.”

Mr. Johnson’s office fired back.

“Speaker Johnson has been clear since the day he was handed the gavel that national security starts at our own border. The Secure the Border Act would codify this principle into federal law, and he continues to strongly urge the Senate and President to support it or similar legislation,” Raj Shah, Mr. Johnson’s deputy communications chief, told The Epoch Times on Jan. 29.

“But make no mistake, President Biden pledged on Friday to ‘shut down the border. However, with the stroke of a pen, he could begin by restoring Remain in Mexico, ending catch and release, [and] reforming asylum and parole standards. His refusal places our national sovereignty at stake.”

Former President Donald Trump, the GOP front-runner in the presidential primary, has voiced objections to the upcoming border deal.

“A Border Bill is not necessary to stop the millions of people, many from jails and mental institutions located all over the World, that are POURING INTO OUR COUNTRY. It is an INVASION the likes of which no Country has ever had to endure. It is not sustainable or affordable, and will, under Crooked Joe Biden, ONLY GET WORSE,” he wrote on his social media platform, Truth Social.

President Biden has said he’d sign into law a bipartisan border deal.

“What’s been negotiated would—if passed into law—be the toughest and fairest set of reforms to secure the border we’ve ever had in our country,” he said in a Jan. 26 statement.

“It would give me, as president, a new emergency authority to shut down the border when it becomes overwhelmed. And if given that authority, I would use it the day I sign the bill into law.”

However, Mr. Johnson said that President Biden already had executive authority to close down the border.

“President Biden falsely claimed yesterday that he needs Congress to pass a new law to allow him to close the southern border, but he knows that is untrue,” he said on Jan. 25.

“As my letter stated, President Biden can begin to secure the border by ending catch-and-release, ceasing exploitation of parole authority, reinstating the Remain in Mexico program, expanding the use of expedited removal authority, and renewing construction of the border wall,” Mr. Johnson said, citing a letter he sent the president last year.

The forthcoming deal comes amid a crisis at the southern border, as there have been 785,422 encounters at the southwest border by U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) in the 2024 fiscal year, which started in October 2023, according to the agency. According to CBP, there were almost 2.48 million encounters in the previous fiscal year—an increase of 96,725 from fiscal year 2022.

Oil prices ended higher after WTI bounced off $76, up to $78, reversing the prior day’s losses from concerns about China’s economy as Middle East tensions were top of mind for the day.

“The spreading conflict in the Middle East remains the most visible and growing risk for energy markets,” analysts at J.P. Morgan wrote in note dated Tuesday.

“While escalation cannot be written off, it remains unlikely in our view, as main parties in the conflict have strong incentives to avoid direct confrontation, and so far they have acted accordingly,” they said.

Meanwhile, “drone attacks on refiners in Russia pose a new, less appreciated, but potentially more damaging threat to global oil product balances,” said analysts at J.P. Morgan.

“Since the start of the year, there have been five recorded Ukraine-linked drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure.”

But for now, the next leg will be driven by any hints at further crude draws from API’s report.

API

• Crude -2.5mm (-800k exp)

• Cushing -2.0mm

• Gasoline +600k (+1.4mm exp)

• Distillates -2.1mm (-800k exp)

Stocks at the crucial Cushing hub fell for the 4th week in a row (for the worst January levels in 12 years). Crude inventories drew down for the 3rd week in a row…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI was trading just below $78 ahead of the API print and was steady after the data…

“In energy, crude oil remains upbeat after last week’s positive price breakout above the $75 [a barrel] and the rising tensions in the Red Sea region as everyone is now expecting the U.S. response to the latest attacks,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, in a Tuesday note.

Finally, of note today was reports that in Saudi Arabia, state producer Saudi Aramco on Tuesday said it won’t try to boost its maximum daily oil production to 13 million barrels a day after receiving an order from the country’s energy ministry.

On its face, the decision may give Saudi Arabia “a bit more freedom to maintain a restrictive output policy” beyond the first quarter of this year, said analysts at Macquarie in a Tuesday note.

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Let’s start by Yellen. US Treasury yields dropped after Treasury announced it expects to net borrow $760bn in Q1 vs. a previous prediction of $816bn. Markets hurrahed, but let’s be clear: first, there are quirks of timing in the financing calendar, long grass I don’t go into other, but others do; and second, there is no hike in tax rates nor reduction in public spending – all the ‘gain’ was due to higher nominal GDP growth/‘fiscal drag’, which reflect inflation. That’s bond bullish? Tomorrow’s Quarterly Refunding Announcement’s political trick will be how much bill issuance we see vs. bonds to fund that $760bn. The political gossip will be how much Yellen thinks bond yields are coming down vs. her deliberately issuing them to run-down the Fed’s Reverse Repurchase (RRP) facility given funds parked there can easily switch to higher yielding T-bills. And don’t forget that as RRP excess liquidity declines, that flow is a liquidity gain offsetting Fed QT; and once RRP is drained, some think QT may have to stop. Again, that’s bond bullish… while Treasury fiscal policy bullies the Fed and runs huge, inflationary deficits financed by T-bills!

Let’s then start Blinken – which is that the US is doing when the US Secretary of State states, “The response against Iran could be multi-levelled and come in stages and be sustained over time.” Operation Praying Mantis, where the US sank half the Iranian fleet in a day in the 1980s, it won’t be: Operation Praying Man, ‘tis. Because while the White House counts its dead, injured and loss of deterrence at the hands of Iran-backed forces –as Tehran says it didn’t do it– it’s also counting the cost of a war that would not only not be over by the 2024 election, where higher oil prices would likely mean Biden loses, but might still be going on in 2028. Markets will therefore be relieved as Bloomberg, both accurately and ridiculously, says the US aims to find a way to bomb Iran just enough to show it’s angry without doing real damage – so ‘politesse’, not real politics. But risks remain: bomb too much – war; bomb too little – more Iran pushback until we trigger that same war; and it’s not clear if there is a sweet-spot between the two. Worse, markets don’t get the real backdrop is:  

• Si vis pacem, para bellum (If you want peace, prepare for war).
• Si vis packing, para bellum (The US wanting to exit a region will invite more conflict until it does).
• Si vis packing it in, para bellum (If the US becomes isolationist, it will be OK – but others sink fast).

On which, it’s time for ‘shippen’. As Freightwaves puts it, “The Red Sea crisis –and the Middle East situation in general– is worsening. There’s growing conviction that shipping diversions around the Cape of Good Hope will increase in scope and last much longer than initially expected.” (By some!) Yes, listen to central bankers’ views on the Red Sea crisis. However, also listen to Red Sea ship captains’ views on inflation and rates – the latter have a more realistic view of the world!

While central bankers in warm offices look at PowerPoint slides prepared by wonks steeped in unworldly math and unrealistic theory that say “disinflation”…

… in the Red Sea, airstrikes vs. the Houthis aren’t working to stop Houthi attacks on shipping.

So, maybe the US has boots on the ground in Yemen. Are they visiting, or trying to find local allies to fight the Houthis to repeat Afghanistan-on-sea? And as more cargo shifts round Africa, Somali piracy is picking up in response. Where or what or who next? Don’t be surprised when something ‘unexpected’ happens again.

In the broader region, we should be prayen. US policy is being made by National Security Advisor Sullivan, who in September 2023 noted, “The Middle East Region is quieter today than it has been for two decades,” and by Secretary of State Blinken, who just stated, “We have not seen a situation as dangerous as the one we are facing across the region since at least 1973.” He seems to have forgotten those Iraqi ‘nuclear weapons’, and the Iran-Iraq War – but he’s not wrong that the current situation bears no relation to the idiotic assessment made just four months ago.

We also have the risk of the Israel-Hamas war expanding to Israel-Hezbollah. On the first front, Hamas just rejected another ceasefire in exchange for releasing its hostages, as demanded by the International Court of Justice, instead insisting the war has to stop. On the second, tensions are soaring on the Lebanese border. The Israeli defence minister just stated his troops will “very soon go into action” there soon, and the Free Press notes, “Take the current war with Hamas and multiply it by ten. That’s what war with Hezbollah would look like. And Israelis are not asking if it will begin, but when.” Spring, some feel.

Meanwhile, maritime maven John Konrad makes a key point across the bows of Yellen, Blinken, shippen, and prayen that markets fail to grasp: “the US Navy can either keep the world safe OR protect the large fleet of Danish, Swiss & German owned containerships. The hard truth is the US Navy simply does not have the capacity to do both.”

YES

And the US Navy is doing exactly that… but, with rising 🇨🇳 🇷🇺 🇮🇷 tensions, the US Navy can either keep the world safe OR protect the large fleet of Danish, Swiss & German owned containerships

The hard truth is the US Navy simply does not have the capacity to do both 🤷‍♂️ https://t.co/HJQcWygwEZ

— John Ʌ Konrad V (@johnkonrad) January 29, 2024

Understand what that means: would you like your cargo to arrive quickly and cheaply? OK, but then you can’t have geopolitical stability. Would you like geopolitical stability? OK, but then you can’t have your cargo cheaply and on time.

Right now, the US is trying, and failing, to protect global supply chains, and trying, and failing, to protect geopolitical stability. Whichever path it ultimately chooses will be disruptive and inflationary. Regardless of what wonks with PowerPoint show central bankers in warm offices, there looks to be no sustainable disinflation against this kind of worrying backdrop.

Indeed, out of sight of most in markets, we are seeing defence spending surge in the West, just as we are seeing US fiscal spending go through the roof in other areas. For the first time since 1944, Finland has activated Stage 1 of its procurement plans, activating wartime production reservation agreements; German arms factories which would have taken a decade to be built are now constructed within months, according to Rheinmetall (while complaining about a lack of German orders); and the UK and Australian press have both had headlines about conscription(!) Yet this is just a fraction of what will be required by their economies if the US Navy can no longer secure either global supply chains or geopolitical stability. How about a European navy that can protect its cargo, for example? We are talking vast sums of money.

Even New Zealand, which has contributed six (6!) sailors to the Red Sea efforts, and whose military is seen as not fit for purpose –because why would a country with a small population and very rich natural resources need defenses when it can export stuff to the peace-loving world?– has just had the RBNZ chief economist say it has a “way to go” to get back to 2% CPI, dashing hopes of an earlier rate cut: up went the NZD as a result.

The US itself must also make huge ‘guns or butter’ choices that will have an equally huge impact on QRAs going forwards. This will be evident soon enough, even to those who opt to focus on the shallowest of headlines rather than the depths of the Red Sea and our problems